It's time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate. We've just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.
As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag. You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page. If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed. --Mike
Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:
In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I'm going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates. If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.
If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you'd like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!--Mike
As we rapidly approach the July 15th filing deadline here in New York, the biggest hurdle I find for our candidates is that not enough of New York's voters and activists know who they are, the dynamics of the race, or how great a chance we have in 2010 to pick up more seats and secure our fragile majority in the State Senate.
The Alabama legislature has been known to be one of the conservative legislatures in the nation. The democrats have maintained control of both chambers continuously for over a century. That said while these democrats tend to be pretty conservative they still tend to be more populist and left leaning on certain economic issues compared to their Republican counterparts. For a state that has only voted for one democratic president(Carter) in the last 50 years, it is amazing to see the local level under so much democratic control
It looks like it will be real battle to hold both of these chambers this year. For the longest time I thought it was a miracle that this legislature has remained in democratic hands for so long. That was until I noticed that 60% of the democrats were first elected over 15 years ago some as much 30 years ago in the senate. The house is slightly better with only 40% of the dems first elected over 15 years ago.
The senate right now is barely on the Dem turf. A couple years ago back in 2007, when there were more dems in the chamber, there was a coalition of Republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect leadership that would be more favorable to Republican Gov. Riley. The coalition was barely defeated 18-17! But it showed that democrats could still muster an offensive against the republicans even in a state like Alabama. This was a decisive win for the interesting power play that had been going on in the state. The lieutenant governor serves as the president of the senate. When a republican was elected to this position the Democrats in the senate moved to transfer most of that power to their Senate president Pro-temp(who was elected by their caucus).
In the following 2008 elections (plus the special elections) Republicans continued to eat away at the Dem majority in the senate. But Jim Folsom Jr., a democrat, was elected to the position of lieutenant governor. The democrats in the senate then tried to restore much of the power back to the Lieutenant Governor (I don't know if they were successful).The move made sense as I'm sure there enough republicans and disaffected Democrats to elect a leadership more favorable to Governor Riley this time around.
Democrats chances of holding the senate look bleak when you look at the numbers. Dems control the chamber 20-15. A mere 3 seats are all it takes to switch control. That's not to say that the Dems can't pick up seats. Parker Griffith for example won seat by defeating an incumbent Republican 66-34 which was an impressive result in the south( Where Dems tend to bleed more seats than win them; on top of the fact that the few seats we win, tend to be open/or have an incumbent immersed in a scandal). Griffith then resigned t o run for congress and his senate seat reverted back to republican just as his affiliation would later in the house). There seems to be a theme of a popular conservative Dems winning against republicans only to make the switch later down the road. The same thing happened with Dick Shelby( who was the last democrat to defeat a sitting republican senator). It will really come down to which incumbent democrats chose retire and the year they were first elected. The more recent they incumbent was first elected (such as mid 2000's) the better the chance we can hold these seats.
The state house looks slightly more favorable to hold. Looking at the numbers the Dems control the chamber with a 60-45 advantage. It takes 8 seat pick-up for the Republicans to win control of this chamber. There are quite a few open seats for Democrats to defend including the current Speaker who was elected in the late 1970s. The Tennessee state house also had similar margin of control prior to the 2008 election. So nothing can be taken for granted. This chamber is as most pundits have said tossup at best.
Now why do I feel this chamber is important to control? Well mainly because the Alabama dems in the legislatures are the only thing standing between governor Riley/the republican party from having the trifecta in this state. These races along with the open governor's race are what control the redistricting map for the next 10 years. If Bobby Bright does survive his tough race this year his next race will ultimately depend which party is in power in this state.
It 's only a matter of time when the republicans take over both chambers as many of the Dem legislators who were first elected in the 1970s finally retire (much like the NY Senate in reverse). A lot on who controls the chambers will depend on how well Ron sparks does in his governor's race. His coattails could be the difference between Republican controlled of the legislature and one controlled by the Democrats. Tensions have also been high in this chamber as just a couple years ago there was a little fist fight in the senate. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...
This is my first real diary. Feel free to comment and let me know if there are any discrepancies
Beltway political pundits are pointing to Scott Brown's recent U.S. Senate victory in Massachusetts as a sign that Republicans nationwide should be excited about their prospects in November.
You know what would be a terrific rebuke to that false logic: a progressive Democrat winning the historically Republican state senate seat that Scott Brown gave up upon his election to the U.S. Senate. Turning the Scott Brown seat from dark red to bright, progressive blue would make a resounding statement with these political pundits and be a big victory for progressive change.
Dr. Smulowitz is a health care expert and progressive Democrat, very much in the proud, progressive tradition of Dr. Howard Dean. He will bring to Massachusetts government innovative ideas on reducing health care costs while focusing on primary and preventative care - ideas that can be duplicated in states across America. Dr. Smulowitz will fight for economic growth and job creation, particularly by easing the tax burden on small businesses and promoting investment in green industries. He will fight to make government more transparent and responsive to its citizens. And he will always fight for civil rights and privacy rights, including protecting marriage equality for same-sex couples and reproductive rights for women.
The primary in the special election to fill Brown's old state senate seat is in just a few weeks, on Tuesday, April 13. Dr. Smulowitz needs your help in the Democratic primary to make sure that a Howard Dean progressive can succeed the conservative Scott Brown. Dr. Smulowitz has a primary challenger, a hack in the state legislature who was formerly a member of the state House leadership under two consecutive House Speakers, Tom Finneran and Sal DiMasi, who both eventually became convicted felons and who both represent what is wrong with Massachusetts state government. This hack's ties to the convicted felon former Speakers make her completely unelectable in a general election.
On the other hand, Dr. Smulowitz can help champion progressive change by winning conservative Republican Scott Brown's old State Senate seat. But we need your help in the progressive blogosphere!
Please join our fight to help a progressive Democrat, rather than an establishment hack, win the primary and have the opportunity to turn the Scott Brown seat blue. Please make a contribution today via ActBlue!
The pundit class thinks that Senator Ted Kennedy's seat going to Scott Brown is a big, bad omen of what is to come for Democrats in November. Electing a Howard Dean Democrat, Dr. Peter Smulowitz, to succeed Scott Brown would turn that omen on its ear and send a poweful message of its own. Please join our fight!
The North Carolina State Senate will see considerable turnover in the Democratic Leadership by the end of 2010. Democrats currently hold a 30-20 majority, and have controlled the Senate Chamber since the 1870s. All members face re-election every 2 years.
3 Democrats have announced they will not run in 2010, and Majority Leader Tony Rand resigned today to accept a new position in state government. The retirements include 3 (now 4) of the 5 most senior Democrats in the Senate.
1/17 Update - Another retirement announced - Sen Charlie Albertson will not run in 2010.
We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year. If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says "Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats" next year. To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats. Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982. Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district. I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.
Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a "High Water Mark" here. Note that I didn't calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days. They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.
I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources. I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders. Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup. The Senator's name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.
I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don't want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.
Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.
We had a pretty good night on election night in the Northeast. We cleaned house. We nailed 1 GOP Senator, 6 House of Reps Districts, 1 State Senate and held on to all of the State Senates, State Houses, US House Reps and US Senators we had coming into this cycle.
That the Northeast is rapidly realigning towards team Blue is undeniable!
But the work my friends has merely begun. Forget the bunkum about us being irretrievably on defense in 2010 come below the fold to see who should be in our sights in 2010 as we stay on offense in the Northeast........
