Virginia fair maps, Congress, State Senate and State House

by: Warning_Crazy

Thu Apr 28, 2011 at 1:05 PM EDT

Virginia State Senate Map

by: GeoffreyVS

Tue Mar 22, 2011 at 7:02 PM EDT

Due to the off-year nature of elections in Virginia, it is more difficult to predict turnout and momentum, particularly with the 2011 election coming up in November affecting all 40 Senate seats and the 100 seats in the HoD. While the 2009 election had the governor's race at the top of the ticket, it did not impact the State Senate because its seats are elected in non-gubernatorial years. Considering the disastrous performance of the Democratic candidates on top of the ticket which contributed to the loss of five Democratic seats in the HoD, we can be thankful that this is the case. Otherwise, the GOP would likely have taken control of the State Senate in addition to the governorship and thus controlled the entire redistricting process.

With all of this in mind, I have been formulating a State Senate map that both protects the Democratic majority and gives it a chance to increase its lead given the right circumstances. In doing so, I've attempted to not draw GOP incumbents out of their districts because of how this would likely engender resentment and could upset the redistricting deal. I've also tried to draw realistic districts though my map is certainly a gerrymander - however, based on the previous State Senate map, I don't think it's any worse in terms of compactness or ignoring communities of common interest. Additionally, I preserved all black majority-minority districts in the Tidewater and around Richmond, as well as the same number of white plurality districts in Northern Virginia (NoVA). In reviewing the new districts I drew, I will refer to their old Dem-GOP and Obama-McCain numbers based on an attempted sketch that I made of the current districts on Dave's Redistricting App. I have also kept every district's population total inside of 1,000 from the ideal number. The final result of my efforts is this map, which creates a good chance for a 24-16 Democratic edge after 2011 (if everything goes according to plan):

Unfortunately, I couldn't manage to draw my home town of Harrisonburg into a Democratic district, but you can't win them all. Anyway, details on my map are after the jump.

Maryland Population Shifts by State Senate District

by: Rupper

Thu Mar 17, 2011 at 3:08 AM EDT

Redistricting California (Part 2): State Senate

by: californianintexas

Mon Feb 28, 2011 at 2:20 AM EST

Majority-White: 22
Majority-Hispanic: 8
Majority-Minority: 10

Safe Dem: 19
Likely Dem: 1
Lean Dem: 3
Toss-Up: 7
Lean GOP: 3
Likely GOP: 6
Safe GOP: 1

Outer NorCal

SD-01: Coastal NorCal (Previously SD-02) (Noreen Evans)
Description: Similar shape to the old district, plus added Del Norte County and the westernmost part of Solano to satisfy district size
Demographics: 68.4% White, 16.1% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 69.1%, McCain 28.5% (SAFE DEM: D+16)

SD-02: Central Valley and Yolo County (Previously SD-04) (Doug LaMalfa and Lois Wolk unless she moves to the new SD-05)
Description: Similar to previous configuration only I added Yolo County to satisfy population size. Lois Wolk (from Davis and currently in SD-05) would be put into this district and would lose to LaMalfa unless she moved to the new SD-05.
Demographics: 71.8% White, 16.1% Hispanic, 5.5% Asian
2008 President: McCain 49.9%, Obama 47.9% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

SD-03: All of Marin, eastern San Francisco, and SE Sonoma (Mark Leno)
Demographics: 56.4% White, 17.8% Asian, 15.6% Hispanic, 6.7% Black
2008 President: Obama 82.2%, McCain 15.8% (SAFE DEM: D+29)

SD-04: Mountain counties along most of the Nevada border plus some Sacramento suburbs (Previously SD-01) (Ted Gaines)
Demographics: 80.8% White, 10.0% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 54.1%, Obama 44.9% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

SD-05: Most of Solano and Sacramento, NW San Joaquin (Lois Wolk if she moves here from SD-02)
Description: Removed Yolo and included more of Sacramento
Demographics: 59.5% White, 18.2% Hispanic, 10.2% Asian, 7.2% Black
2008 President: Obama 53.4%, McCain 44.9% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

SD-06: Sacramento and some inner suburbs (Darrell Steinberg)
Demographics: 50.3% White, 17.9% Hispanic, 14.2% Asian, 11.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 65.1%, McCain 33.0% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

San Francisco Bay Area

SD-07: Oakland, Berkeley, Richmond, Martinez (Previously SD-09) (Loni Hancock)
Demographics: 36.0% White, 24.2% Black, 18.5% Hispanic, 16.7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 86.7%, McCain 11.3% (SAFE DEM: D+33)

SD-08: Western half of San Francisco, most of San Mateo (Leland Yee)
Demographics: 46.4% White, 27.6% Asian, 18.3% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 75.4%, McCain 22.8% (SAFE DEM: D+22)

SD-09: Inland Alameda and Contra Costa (Previously SD-07) (Mark DeSaulnier)
Demographics: 67.9% White, 14.5% Hispanic, 9.3% Asian
2008 President: Obama 63.0%, McCain 35.3% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

SD-10: Western Alameda County and Milpitas in Santa Clara County (Ellen Corbett)
Demographics: 32.9% White, 31.4% Asian, 24.6% Hispanic, 6.1% Black
2008 President: Obama 72.7%, McCain 25.4% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

SD-11: Silicon Valley and Santa Cruz County (Joe Simitian)
Demographics: 58.4% White, 20.2% Asian, 15.9% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 73.7%, McCain 24.2% (SAFE DEM: D+21)

SD-12: San Jose and part of Stanislaus County (Previously SD-13) (Elaine Alquist)
Demographics: 42.4% White, 31.0% Hispanic, 19.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 67.4%, McCain 30.9% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

SD-13: Stockton, Modesto, Merced (Previously SD-12) (Anthony Cannella)
Demographics: 50.0% White, 34.1% Hispanic, 6.8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 52.1%, McCain 46.2% (TOSS-UP: R+1)

Central

SD-14: Eastern Central Valley and northern half of Fresno (Tom Berryhill)
Demographics: 57.9% White, 28.7% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.6%, Obama 44.7% (LIKELY GOP: R+8)

SD-15: Central Coast (Sam Blakeslee)
Description: Still a Central Coast-centric district, only I removed Santa Cruz, put Monterey completely within the district, and stretched a little further into Santa Barbara
Demographics: 55.1% White, 33.9% Hispanic
2008 President: Obama 57.0%, McCain 41.0% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

SD-16: Western Central Valley (Michael Rubio)
Description: Did some tweaking to keep it sufficiently Hispanic to satisfy the VRA
Demographics: 60.1% Hispanic, 24.6% White, 5.9% Asian, 5.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 55.6%, McCain 42.8% (TOSS-UP: D+2.5)

SD-17: Inyo County, Tulare, Bakersfield (Previously SD-18) (Jean Fuller)
Demographics: 57.0% White, 32.1% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 60.8%, Obama 37.4% (SAFE GOP: R+15)

SD-18: Remainder of Santa Barbara and most of Ventura (Previously SD-19) (Tony Strickland)
Description: This time I was able to keep Thousand Oaks and Simi Valley in the same district and not go over in population
Demographics: 58.5% White, 31.0% Hispanic, 5.5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 59.3%, McCain 38.9% (LEAN DEM: D+6)

SD-19: Antelope Valley, keeping Lancaster and Palmdale together (Previously SD-17) (Sharon Runner)
Demographics: 54.1% White, 27.2% Hispanic, 8.2% Asian, 6.8% Black
2008 President: Obama 53.3%, McCain 44.6% (TOSS-UP: EVEN)

Los Angeles/Orange County

SD-20: Hispanic side of the San Fernando Valley (Alex Padilla)
Demographics: 54.2% Hispanic, 30.4% White, 6.9% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73.2%, McCain 24.7% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

SD-21: Burbank, Glendale, Pasadena (Carol Liu)
Demographics: 37.2% White, 32.8% Hispanic, 20.0% Asian, 5.2% Black
2008 President: Obama 67.3%, McCain 30.6% (SAFE DEM: D+14)

SD-22: From Monterey Park to Diamond Bar (Kevin De Leon)
Demographics: 53.9% Hispanic, 26.0% Asian, 14.8% White
2008 President: Obama 64.9%, McCain 33.2% (SAFE DEM: D+12)

SD-23: West Side L.A. without the Ventura portion (Fran Pavley)
Demographics: 70.4% White, 13.0% Hispanic, 9.4% Asian
2008 President: Obama 72.9%, McCain 25.4% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

SD-24: South Central: Culver City, Inglewood, Compton (Previously parts of SD-25 and 26) (Rod Wright) (Curren Price)
Description: Due to demographic trends, it looks like the black populations of the current SD-25 and 26 will be merged into this district, which means Curren Price and Rod Wright will likely be in the same district.
Demographics: 41.8% Hispanic, 41.7% Black, 7.9% White, 5.8% Asian
2008 President: Obama 89.7%, McCain 9.1% (SAFE DEM: D+37)

SD-25: South Central (Previously parts of SD-25 and 26)
Description: Here I took the Hispanic parts of the current SD-25 and 26. Either of Wright or Price may run here, but an Hispanic candidate is far and away the favorite here
Demographics: 61.4% Hispanic, 14.0% Black, 11.4% Asian, 10.4% White
2008 President: Obama 84.2%, McCain 13.8% (SAFE DEM: D+31)

SD-26: Downtown L.A., Whittier, Pico Rivera (Previously SD-24) (Probably Ed Hernandez)
Description: Hernandez's home is in the new SD-22, though he may move and run here.
Demographics: 79.0% Hispanic, 11.4% White, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 73.1%, McCain 24.8% (SAFE DEM: D+20)

SD-27: Beach Cities, Carson, and Palos Verdes Peninsula (Previously SD-28) (Ted Lieu)
Demographics: 39.3% White, 31.7% Hispanic, 16.4% Asian, 8.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 62.0%, McCain 36.0% (LIKELY DEM: D+9)

SD-28: South Gate, Norwalk, Artesia, part of Long Beach (Previously parts of SD-27 and SD-30) (possibly Alan Lowenthal and Ron Calderon)
Description: I shifted Long Beach to the coastal OC district and found that I had too many people in that one, so I shifted part of Long Beach into this district. Part of Lowenthal's and Calderon's districts are put here, so they may face a primary unless one decides to retire.
Demographics: 55.7% Hispanic, 18.2% White, 12.3% Asian, 10.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 70.9%, McCain 27.0% (SAFE DEM: D+18)

SD-29: Northern L.A. suburbs (Previously parts of SD-29 and SD-31) (Bob Dutton and Bob Huff?)
Description: In L.A. and San Bern Counties to satisfy population size, from Arcadia to my hometown Rancho Cucamonga. Huff's home in Diamond Bar was shifted to the 22nd so he may move here.
Demographics: 43.8% White, 34.3% Hispanic, 9.3% Asian, 8.9% Black
2008 President: Obama 54.2%, McCain 43.8% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

SD-30: Fontana, Ontario, Chino, Montclair, Pomona (Previously SD-32) (Gloria Negrete-McLeod)
Demographics: 55.7% Hispanic, 25.0% White, 9.9% Black, 6.2% Asian
2008 President: Obama 63.7%, McCain 34.5% (SAFE DEM: D+10)

SD-31: Most of San Bernardino and in Riverside (Open)
Demographics: 64.2% White, 23.9% Hispanic, 5.2% Black
2008 President: McCain 55.2%, Obama 42.6% (LIKELY GOP: R+9)

SD-32: Coastal Orange County and part of Long Beach (Previously SD-35 and part of SD-27) (Tom Harman and Alan Lowenthal?)
Demographics: 69.3% White, 13.5% Hispanic, 12.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 49.5%, McCain 48.6% (LEAN GOP: R+4)

SD-33: Garden Grove, Anaheim, Santa Ana (Previously SD-34) (Lou Correa)
Demographics: 54.2% Hispanic, 23.5% White, 17.5% Asian
2008 President: Obama 54.6%, McCain 43.5% (TOSS-UP: D+1)

SD-34: Inland Orange County (Previously SD-33) (Mimi Walters)
Demographics: 53.7% White, 27.2% Hispanic, 13.9% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.1%, Obama 45.0% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

SD-35: Riverside, Norco, Moreno Valley, Corona (Previously part of SD-37) (Open)
Description: Rapid growth in Riverside County led to this district being excised off the eastern end of the old SD-37
Demographics: 43.0% White, 38.3% Hispanic, 9.2% Black, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: Obama 55.4%, McCain 42.7% (TOSS-UP: D+2)

Outer SoCal and San Diego

SD-36: Most of the rest of Riverside County (Previously SD-37) (Bill Emmerson)
Demographics: 53.7% White, 36.9% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 49.6%, Obama 48.8% (LEAN GOP: R+3)

SD-37: Temecula, Southern OC, NW San Diego County to Carlsbad (Previously SD-36) (Joel Anderson?)
Demographics: 66.4% White, 21.4% Hispanic, 5.6% Asian
2008 President: McCain 53.5%, Obama 44.7% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

SD-38: Imperial County and as much of Eastern San Diego as could fit (Previously SD-37 and SD-40) (Mark Wyland)
Demographics: 57.8% White, 31.2% Hispanic
2008 President: McCain 53.2%, Obama 45.1% (LIKELY GOP: R+7)

SD-39: Northern San Diego (Christine Kehoe)
Description: Northern half of San Diego, Solana Beach, Encinitas, Del Mar, Lemon Grove
Demographics: 63.2% White, 14.9% Hispanic, 13.7% Asian
2008 President: Obama 56.9%, McCain 41.4% (LEAN DEM: D+4)

SD-40: Southern San Diego (Previously part of SD-39) (Juan Vargas)
Description: Southern half of San Diego, Coronado, National City, Chula Vista, Imperial Beach
Demographics: 42.4% Hispanic, 32.5% White, 12.0% Asian, 9.4% Black
2008 President: Obama 66.3%, McCain 32.0% (SAFE DEM: D+13)

Wisconsin Senate: What was lost and what remains

by: Xenocrypt

Thu Feb 17, 2011 at 9:05 PM EST

New York State Senate Redistricting: 43-19

by: Airbare8

Sat Jan 22, 2011 at 11:18 AM EST

After only two years of a slim 32-30 Democratic majority in the New York State Senate, Republicans in this past election barely took back the chamber that they had previously held continuously for more than forty years. People around the country endlessly ask the question: how is it possible that Republicans have a majority of state senators in a state as "blue" as New York?

There is no simple answer to that question. Sufficed it to say, one of the most important factors is gerrymandering. Republicans did a masterful job of redistricting a very favorable map for themselves ten years ago. The current map is littered with Republican senators holding light blue Obama districts all over Long Island (9-0 Republican) and Upstate (21-4). With the great help of Daves Redistricting App 2.0, I set about in the task of redistricting New York's State Senate districts with three main goals in mind: 1.) connect Democratic towns and cities in Long Island, 2.) preserve majority-minority districts in New York City, and 3.) consolidate small cities Upstate. Much of the basis for my analysis comes from jeffmd's excellent post on the State Senate written in 2009 in which he looked at the numbers for the current districts. Inspecting the presidential toplines, it was determined that the cutoff between Republican and Democratic districts is about 58-60% Obama. My map uses that percentage as the benchmark. It would create 10 Democratic districts at over 58% in Upstate New York and another four at over 62% in Long Island. Combined with New York City, this would be more than enough to give Democrats a two-to-one majority in the State Senate. So without further ado, here is what I came up with:

Note, also, that I broke the state into four regions for simplicity: Upstate, Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan, Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island, and Long Island. Here is another table that breaks down the numbers by region:

As you can see from the table, I redraw the map so that NYC gained two seats at the expense of Upstate New York, while Long Island remained the same at 9 districts. The population of each district in each region is very equal with the greatest deviation of -2.1% below the ideal population in the region of Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan. The rest of the seats compensate for this by being about .5% above the ideal. Before discussing the statewide changes that would occur under this redistricting plan, first let me go through the four regions themselves...

NY St. Senate Fair Redistricting: Let the Court Draw It

by: nycyoungin

Tue Jan 04, 2011 at 6:43 PM EST

So, I tried to draw the map as if I were the courts. Sorry if my naming of colors throws you off.

My plan is a fair plan:

I make as many minority-majority seats as I think would be necessary;
No district is designed specifically for any current senator;
County splitting is avoided as much as possible;
Almost all towns are kept together: no joke, there is not a single town outside of Nassau and Suffolk that is split. In Suffolk, Islip is too big, so three precincts are moved to NY-02. In Nassau, some hamlets might be split, but I'm pretty sure there aren't that many that are;
In the City, I tired to respect racial groups;
Upstate, I tried to keep regions together.

To that end, Democrats would surely take the State Senate under this map. I've classified everything from R+1 to D+3 as a swing district. If you give Republicans all swing districts, they'll only muster 25 seats. Kudos to the 2000 GOP, they made one heckuva map. Can you imagine if Dems made a Senate map? They could easily make 45 seats, but that's a different story.

Here's my map:

Redistricting the New Jersey State Senate

by: duffman

Thu Dec 02, 2010 at 1:57 AM EST

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #4

by: Michael Connery

Wed Aug 04, 2010 at 11:51 AM EDT

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  --Mike

NY State Senate: Weekly Campaign Roundup #3

by: Michael Connery

Wed Jul 28, 2010 at 4:23 PM EDT

As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments.  If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag.  You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page.  If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed.  --Mike