All 80 seats in the lower house of the NJ legislature are up for re-election this year, but the 40 legislative districts (2 assemblymen from each) are so heavily gerrymandered that only a few districts are ever in play. Right now, the Democrats have a 48-32 majority; Republicans must pick up seats in five districts to re-take a majority.
The conventional wisdom here in that Republicans will pick up seats in a few swing districts, but not enough to take control of the Assembly, which has been under Democratic control for years. Further CW is that there's a "throw-the-bums-out" anti-Democratic sentiment in these swing districts right now.
Probable GOP pickups There are two districts currently represented by Democrats that will most likely be represented by Republicans next year.
One is the first legislative district (LD1), a South Jersey district comprised of Cape May County and parts of Cumberland and Atlantic Counties. The Shore region has long been one of the most favorable parts of the state for the GOP, and this year this part of the state is the one Christie has a real lock on.
The Democratic incumbents are Assemblymen Matthew Milam and Nelson Albano, and they're most likely headed for defeat. Instead of their 2007 running mate, popular Sen. Jeff Van Drew, at the top of the ticket, the unpopular Gov. Jon Corzine is - and Christie may win this district by a double-digit margin. If I had to pick one district to flip, this would be it. The GOP nominees are Mike Donohue, an attorney from Dennis Township who was also the GOP nominee in 2007, and John McCann, a businessman who chairs the Ocean City Republican Party and serves on the Cape May County Tax Board. They're a pair of real wingnuts; they support abolishing – not cutting, abolishing – the state Department of Environmental Protection.
The good news here for the Dems is that they have a huge five-to-one leg up in fundraising, thanks to the powerful South Jersey Democratic machine. Also, even though Milam and Albano don't have Van Drew's electoral coattails to rely upon, Van Drew has been out there campaigning like hell for them.
The other seat that's likely to flip is LD36, where Assemblymen Frederick Scalera and Gary Schaer barely managed to hold onto their seats two years ago. LD36 is a suburban district comprised of most of southern Bergen County, plus Nutley in Essex County and the infamously corrupt city of Passaic in the county of the same name.
There's a reason why voters came close to throwing out Scalera and Schaer in 2007. The pair, especially Schaer, is closely tied to the disastrous EnCap project. Even though that's all over with now, and even though the state executive branch is the one that actually mismanaged that project into the ground, Schaer was still one of the original big proponents of the project. This was enough to rouse constituents to try and teach him a lesson in 2007, and it will be enough in 2009. Add that together with voter frustration over property taxes, corruption, and Gov. Corzine's failed affordable housing initiative, and voila! You've got a recipe for disaster for Scalera and Schaer.
This race is going to be very, very close, especially since suburban areas like this one are being sought after by both Christie and Corzine. The GOP nominees are Don Diorio, a school board member and businessman in Carlstadt, and Carmen Pio Costa of Nutley, who manages a real estate investment business. This is the same ticket that almost unseated the incumbents in 2007, and once again they're pulling no punches. They've assailed Scalera and Schaer for their support of COAH and Corzine's tax increases, for their involvement with EnCap, and for their double-dipping tendencies. (The latter is not unusual for New Jersey politicians, but it's certainly never something that voters support. Schaer, for the record, is also the President of the Passaic City Council, while Scalera collected a big, fat second salary for a public job with Essex County for quite some time.
Other GOP targets The GOP is also aiming to pick up seats in LD14, the only district represented by different parties in the Senate and Assembly (Sen. Bill Baroni is a Republican). The key in this district is to be pro-labor, because plenty of unionized state workers live in this Central Jersey district, which is fairly close to the state capital.
Assemblyman Wayne DeAngelo and Assemblywoman Linda Greenstein are both very pro-labor, so if there's a big labor turnout for Corzine, they could be safe. But if there are state workers still smarting over the unpaid furloughs Corzine imposed, GOP nominees Rob Calabro (a member of the Hamilton Planning Board who owns several Mercer County food markets) and Bill Harvey (a general practice attorney) could have a pretty good shot at unseating the incumbents. Interestingly, the Middlesex County GOP is ticked off at the Mercer County GOP because both nominees are from Hamilton, in Mercer County. I'm not sure if that'll affect the race.
There are two other districts where the GOP has a reasonable possibility of picking up seats. One is LD4, a swingy South Jersey district comprised of parts of Camden and Gloucester Counties. Folks, with a two-to-one Democratic registration advantage, this gerrymandered district is usually dominated by George Norcross and his South Jersey Democratic machine. But people in this suburban district -- like people in most other parts of New Jersey -- are generally viewing Gov. Corzine negatively. Suddenly the GOP is viewing the LD4 seats as a viable option. The seats are currently occupied by Assemblywoman Sandra Love, who is retiring, and Assemblyman Paul Moriarty, who is running for re-election. Moriarty is maligned by Republicans, who cannot beat his "independent-minded" image in spite of the fact that his voting record is fairly partisan and he's part of the Norcross machine.
Anyway, Moriarty and his new running mate, a 15-year-veteran of the Gloucester Township School Board named Bill Collins, aren't facing a typical Republican slate this year. One Republican nominee, Eugene E.T. Lawrence, was a Democrat until earlier this year, when he basically switched parties in order to run in the general election (although his official reason was his anger at Gov. Corzine for cutting property tax rebates). Lawrence, an African-American who spent five years as a Democrat on the Gloucester Township Council before being defeated for re-election, felt snubbed when the Democratic machine picked Collins earlier this year. In addition to Lawrence, the Republicans have nominated a political neophyte named Dominick DiCicco. Hailing from Franklin Township, DiCicco has a law degree and an MBA; he works for Zurich Financial Services, currently as Chief Legal Officer of North American Claim Operation. He's also got friends in high places, apparently, as former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives Newt Gingrich saw fit to endorse him earlier this year. How many times has Newt Gingrich endorsed someone in a state legislative race? Not many, I imagine.
All things considered, Lawrence and DiCicco have a lot to overcome - not just the voter registration edge, but the fundraising might of the Norcross machine, which has out-raised them two-to-one thus far. Norcross isn't losing this one if he can help it, but with his slate facing a pair of genuine moderates in an anti-Democratic year, these seats could flip.
Another such district is LD19, a somewhat urban Middlesex County district including Perth Amboy and Woodbridge. This district is currently represented by Assemblymen John Wisniewski of Sayreville and Joe Vas of Perth Amboy. Wisniewski, who's been elected and re-elected since 1995, is one of the most powerful members of the Assembly, chairing the Transportation/Public Works Committee. He more recently made the news by flirting with the prospect of seeking the Speakership next year and, humorously, by boasting about the fact that he didn't accept a bribe from Solomon Dwek, the cooperating witness in this summer's infamous Operation Bid Rig. Good for you, John.
Of course, perhaps I shouldn't poke fun at Wisniewski when he is so clearly the clean one in this delegation. After all, Vas (who was concurrently Mayor of Perth Amboy until he lost his re-election bid in 2008) is facing a plethora of corruption charges from both federal and state authorities. In March 2009, a state grand jury indicted him on eleven counts, including seven counts of official misconduct. In May 2009, a federal grand jury indicted him on eight counts, including six counts of mail fraud. Also in May 2009, a second state grand jury indicted Vas on seventeen further counts. And to top it all off, the feds indicted Vas on one more charge in superseding indictment in July. Through all of this, Vas refuses to resign, although he decides not to seek a second term in office. Assembly Speaker Joe Roberts suspended Vas's salary and benefits and stripped him of his committee assignments, including his Commerce Committee chairmanship. Vas still refuses to resign to this very day.
So the time comes for the Middlesex Democratic machine to pick Vas's successor, and they give the party line to Jack O'Leary, the longtime mayor of the district's smallest city, South Amboy. O'Leary runs unopposed in the primary and appears to be headed for election as the next assemblyman from LD19. Instead, an anonymously authored 82-page document called "The O'Leary Family Crime Syndicate" began circulating, accusing O'Leary of corruption and targeting the mayor's insurance business. O'Leary was investigated by state authorities as well, although he has not been charged with any crime and the attack may very well have been simply a political enemy trying to take him out. Regardless, O'Leary bowed to intraparty pressure and quit the race in August.
Democratic Party boss/actual elected county sheriff Joe Spicuzzo convened party leaders to vote on who to anoint as the new nominee. Party leaders voted to put Craig Coughlin on the ticket. Coughlin is a retired municipal judge who's been municipal attorney for Carteret and Woodbridge, not to mention a South Amboy councilman and a Woodbridge Democratic Party chair. A distinguished resume, no doubt, but one with scarcely any elective office on it. Indeed, instead of a mayor so popular in his hometown that he's been elected and re-elected to that office for two decades, the Middlesex Dems anointed a party insider with lots of political connections in all the district's towns but little to no connection to the actual people of the district.
Even though this is a heavily Democratic district (Dems enjoy a 2-1 registration advantage), the corruption problem and, of course, dissatisfaction with Gov. Corzine have given the GOP newfound hope. One nominee, Richard Piatkowski of Perth Amboy, is a real estate broker probably best known in the political sphere for his run for the U.S. House of Representatives in 2004, when he was the Republican nominee against then-Congressman (and future Senator) Bob Menendez in the heavily Democratic 13th Congressional District. His running mate, Peter Kothari, is a businessman from Woodbridge who is probably best known as an Indian-American community activist. (In 2006, Kothari denounced the police and the city of Edison for not prosecuting a police officer who allegedly engaged in police brutality while arresting another Indian-American activist for rioting and assault on a police officer. That's not very Republican....) Worst-case scenario from a Democratic perspective: The GOP picks up these two seats, along with all the others mentioned above. I wouldn't put any money on it, though.
All other seats All other seats should be safe for the incumbents. Other than LD14 (mentioned above), only LD2 has split representation (represented by a pair of Republicans in the Assembly and a Democratic state senator), but it's likely safe for the incumbents. Some excessively optimistic Republicans have also made noise about pickups in LD3 and LD6, which frankly is not going to happen.
I should note that there are also two special elections for the Senate going on: One to fill Congressman John Adler's old seat in a heavily Democratic district and one to fill Congressman Leonard Lance's old seat in a heavily Republican district. Both are safe for the incumbent party.
Iowans in House district 90 will elect a new state representative in a special election on September 1, and the Republican candidate appears to be planning to make same-sex marriage a major campaign issue.
This is now Episode 12 of my seemingly never-ending redistricting series. (In reality, it has a definite end -- after this diary, there are only 9 states I'm planning to address: California, Washington, New Mexico, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas, and Tennessee. The other 15 states are either at-large states, or are unlikely to see substantive boundary changes.)
Today comes Oklahoma and Wisconsin. I struggled with whether to include Oklahoma at all, since my Oklahoma effort is barely different from the current map. But given the fluid partisan dynamics in Sooner State politics, and the potential issue over how to handle the "conservative Democratic" 2nd District, I thought it might be worth a look. On the other hand, I drew two maps for Wisconsin based on the highly changeable atmosphere in that state's 2010 elections.
After a couple-week hiatus, I'm back to Episode 11 of my redistricting series! On tap for tonight's episode: a magnolia founds the next world empire! Or, rather, I've paired two unlikely diary neighbors, New York and Mississippi.
There were a number of people who earlier asked me why I hadn't yet covered New York, one of the obvious choices for an early redistricting diary. The reason is that back in March I drew a map for NY that assumed Jim Tedisco would win NY-20 and be primed for elimination in 2012. Just tonight I redrew New York to, on the contrary, make the 20th more Democratic to help Murphy (though the news wasn't all good, and I'll get to that momentarily).
I am now on Episode 10 of my redistricting series, if you can believe it! Tonight we cover Colorado and Minnesota. I drew two maps for Minnesota -- one if the Republicans hold Tim Pawlenty's governorship in 2010, and the other if Democrats manage a gerrymandering monopoly. (The Dems have solid state legislative majorities, so that element seems set in stone.)
Here is Episode 9 of my never-ending redistricting series, in which I cover three states (Alabama, Arizona, and Kentucky) with little in common demographically other than all voting for John McCain.
This, Episode 8 of my never-ending redistricting series, is a diary of firsts. It is the first time I have covered three states instead of the customary two (the reason being that I was pairing a larger state with a smaller one, and this diary covers three mid-sized states), and the first time I have covered a state not expected to either gain or lose seats in the next reapportionment (Indiana, which should hold even at 9 seats).
Here is Episode 7 in my redistricting series. Episode 7 was meant to be Arizona & New York, but with NY-20 undecided and likely to be for a time, I thought it was time to press ahead with other states I've drawn. So here we have it: the Land of Lincoln and the founding state of the Confederacy, wrapped together at last in one diary!
Episode 6 in my redistricting series. By this point I'm tired of having these maps and data lying around burning a hole in my Microsoft Word documents, especially in light of the new Census county estimates for 2008. So I'm knocking out all the already-completed states for your and my nerdy enjoyment. Today, some keystones with your Jell-O?
Those strangest of bedfellows, Rust Belt Pennsylvania and booming Utah! (spelled with an exclamation point as on state license plates) just below the fold...
Episode 5 in my redistricting series, and as you can see, I'm picking up the pace, having just covered Georgia and New Jersey yesterday. Because the Census released 2008 county estimates last week, I feel like knocking out these diaries for the states I already mapped using 2007 numbers. Of course, because they're 2007 numbers, they're not quite up to snuff, but in most cases, the lines wouldn't look too dramatically different using newer stats.
Episode 4 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states is here! I was inspired to finally put it together after BigTentProgressive's excellent Texas redistricting diary. On the agenda today: some peaches for the First Lady's new garden. (Which is my not-so-clever way of saying that I'm covering Georgia and New Jersey in today's diary.)
Unfortunately, my districts are based on county estimates from 2007, and just this week the Census released 2008 numbers. Since my maps were drawn before the 2008 release, they are worth taking with a grain of salt. Also, I am using projected seat totals for post-2010 redistricting that are equally subject to change.
Again, the obligatory grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.
Much geekdom, nerdiness, and dorkery lies below the fold...
Episode 2 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states has arrived! Today, I map Michigan and Nevada.
Grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.
The number geeks among us will really enjoy what's below the fold...
With the 2010 Census just a year away and the next round of nationwide redistricting two or three years away, I've decided to start looking at the redistricting situations in different states and begin some conversation about what kinds of changes we can expect to see. These diaries will be sporadic, and the data is always subject to change (for now, county population estimates are from 2007; 2008 numbers will be out soon, meaning my number-crunching will need constant adjusting)...but for we super-geeks, merely the discussion of redistricting and speculation on its effects will be sufficiently entertaining.
My "state focus" redistricting diaries will cover two states, usually one large and one a bit smaller.
Today, I was feeling the vibes of 2004, so we'll delve into Massachusetts and Texas. Below the fold...
One happy result of our crowdsourcing presidential results-by-congressional district project is that it pointed our way to a spreadsheet put together by Benjamin Johnstone-Anderson, not an SSPer that I know of, but clearly an elections geek of the highest order. This spreadsheet covers the entire state of Washington at the precinct level (not just in split counties), and it's designed to give results not just by congressional district, but also by municipality and legislative district.
The nice thing about this kind of spreadsheet is that it lets us do the same sort of analysis at the state level that we at SSP are fond of doing at the national level. By calculating a half-assed sort of PVI (based only on 2008 numbers) and arranging LDs from most to least Democratic, we can form a picture of who the most vulnerable legislators of each party are, much more precisely than just by looking at county-level data. (In most states you can at least look at party registration numbers to measure districts, but there's no registration by party in Washington.) This would be a fantastic resource to have for as many states as possible, and I'd like to encourage other SSPers to perform and post the same sort of analysis for their states (if the necessary information can be found).
I've been searching the internet for a complete (or close to complete) list of the new make-ups of all of the stat legislatures, but so far, I haven't found any. Therefore, I thought we might put one together. Therefore, please respond to this diary with the new make-up of your state's legislature (and any other you know) and if either party gained seats and if so, how many. Also note if any seats are still too close to call.
Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).
This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn't everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)
The biggest prize, and the only state where we've seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren't any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).
Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).
The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats' overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.
They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign's abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.
Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.
It's been a while since we've talked about state legislatures, so here are some bits and pieces on where we stand right now (if you need a primer on where the most hotly contested chambers are and what the margin of seats held is, see my previous diary here). New York remains the big prize, with Democrats within one flipped seat of a tied State Senate and two seats away from taking control. This is the only state I know of where individual races have been polled; over the past month Siena has polled 10 of the 62 races, and with one GOP-held open seat poised to fall to the Democrats, one Dem incumbent trailing a GOP challenger, and one GOP incumbent tied with his Democratic challenger, the outcome is too close to call.
In Texas, the House is possibly the next juiciest legislative target after the NY Senate, which looks more like a two-cycle project but might actually get done this year. Republicans currently hold the House 79-71. Burnt Orange Report recently put together an impressive set of projections, and it seems like a 75-75 split is possible if Dems run the table on the closest races.
They peg two Democratic challengers, Diana Maldonado (open seat in HD-52 in Austin's northern suburbs) and Chris Turner (against incumbent Bill Zedler in HD-96 in Ft. Worth's southern suburbs), as "Lean Dem," with two more potential Democratic pickups at the "Tossup" level (Joe Moody in an open seat in HD-78 in El Paso and Joel Redmond in an open seat in HD-144 in Houston's eastern suburbs). A Houston Chronicle article from yesterday seems to support this analysis; while it doesn't delve in to specific seats, it looks at fundraising and general mood to conclude "Climate is ripe for Texas House takeover."
1. The 2010 census looms, to be followed by redrawing Congressional districts in most states.
2. Many policy matters are determined at the state level.
3. Getting progressive Democrats elected to state legislatures will build our bench for future House, Senate or gubernatorial races.
4. You probably can find a competitive statehouse race near you, no matter where you live.
5. Your individual actions are more likely to make a difference in a statehouse race.
In addition to donating directly to good state legislators and legislative candidates in Iowa, I give to the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, which supports statehouse candidates across the country.
I was pleased to learn on Friday that the DLCC is accepting nominations for candidates to be included in its "40 essential races" program.
We're going to try something new here at Swing State Project: a list of competitive state legislature races for 2008. However, we aren't breaking them down into the tossup/lean/likely framework that you're familiar with. Unlike Senate and House races, where there is abundant polling and fundraising information to help us make informed decisions, state legislatures are jigsaws made up of hundreds of different races, most of which we know precious little about. Therefore, we're simply listing the closest legislative bodies, starting with the ones that are tied and working downward based on percentage of seats held by the majority party.
There are a few legislative bodies that are close enough to be on this list, but aren't included because they're elected in off-years (Louisiana House, 53 D/49 R/1 I/2 V) or everyone gets elected all together in 2010 (Michigan Senate, 17 D/21 R).
This list makes a few of these legislative bodies look to be at more risk of flipping than they actually are. For instance, the Tennessee Senate isn't likely to flip back to us this year, as we're facing the potential loss of Democratic held open seats in GOP-leaning rural areas due to retirement. Conversely, Democrats in the Oregon House are likely to strengthen their position because of Republican retirements in suburban Dem-leaning seats. Indiana Democrats also seem optimistic about their ability to hold the razor-close Indiana House.
Likewise, there are chambers where reality might place them a little higher on the list. Most prognosticators, for instance, would agree that the New York Senate flipping to Democratic control is all but a done deal at this point, what with Majority Leader Joe Bruno already having hit the eject button and several GOP old-timers in strongly Democratic seats running on fumes. Similarly, there's a lot of optimism about retaking the Wisconsin Assembly.
Also, there is a handful of states where the number of seats needed to flip, and the small number of constituents per seat, make it possible that anything can happen. (Consider the New Hampshire House of Representatives in 2006. The GOP controlled 62% of the seats, making it look safe. The Democrats flipped 90 seats (out of 400... NH has by far the largest state legislature) to take firm control. No one saw that coming, proof that anything can happen at this level.)
Alaska may be a prime example, where Dems only need to flip two seats to take control of the Senate... and with indictments cutting a swath through the Republican caucus in the Senate, the popular Governor now facing a mini-scandal of her own, and potentially big Obama coattails, it may be the year to make it happen. The Senates in both North and South Dakota also need only a few flipped seats to change hands, and, again, with Obama coattails, it's possible; the same applies to the perpetually-close Montana House.
As stated during last month's state legislature overview, though, useful links about state legislatures are few and far between in the blogosphere, so we need our readers to help be our eyes and ears. If you have any further insights into any of these races or helpful links, please share in the comments.
