This is first in a series of diaries looking at redistricting in the Michigan State House. I'm not totally sure how many parts there will be yet. The current diary is focused on Wayne County, home of Detroit, and the county with the worst numerical net loss of population over the last ten years of any in the country -- just short of a quarter million.
The upshot here is that Wayne County currently possesses 23 state house districts; with the population loss, it's going to drop to 20. All three seats loss are Detroit-based.
Michigan has a 110-member state house. In 2010, the Republicans gained nineteen seats while losing none, to take control of the chamber by a 63-47 margin.
I haven't done a full map yet, so I don't know for sure where those seats are going, but I have to assume that the loss of three safe seats in Detroit is going to make the task of regaining the chamber even more difficult for the Democrats.
After only two years of a slim 32-30 Democratic majority in the New York State Senate, Republicans in this past election barely took back the chamber that they had previously held continuously for more than forty years. People around the country endlessly ask the question: how is it possible that Republicans have a majority of state senators in a state as "blue" as New York?
There is no simple answer to that question. Sufficed it to say, one of the most important factors is gerrymandering. Republicans did a masterful job of redistricting a very favorable map for themselves ten years ago. The current map is littered with Republican senators holding light blue Obama districts all over Long Island (9-0 Republican) and Upstate (21-4). With the great help of Daves Redistricting App 2.0, I set about in the task of redistricting New York's State Senate districts with three main goals in mind: 1.) connect Democratic towns and cities in Long Island, 2.) preserve majority-minority districts in New York City, and 3.) consolidate small cities Upstate. Much of the basis for my analysis comes from jeffmd's excellent post on the State Senate written in 2009 in which he looked at the numbers for the current districts. Inspecting the presidential toplines, it was determined that the cutoff between Republican and Democratic districts is about 58-60% Obama. My map uses that percentage as the benchmark. It would create 10 Democratic districts at over 58% in Upstate New York and another four at over 62% in Long Island. Combined with New York City, this would be more than enough to give Democrats a two-to-one majority in the State Senate. So without further ado, here is what I came up with:
District
Pop. Center
Pop.
Wh%
Bl%
Asn%
Hisp%
Oth%
O%
M%
D
1
Hamptons
318633
66
11
3
17
2
62
38
R
2
Brookhaven
318569
89
2
2
6
1
49
51
R
3
Lindenhurst
318229
89
2
1
6
1
47
53
D
4
Huntington
318189
60
17
3
18
2
63
36
R
5
Smithtown
318668
91
1
3
4
1
46
54
R
6
Massapequa
318525
90
0
3
5
1
44
56
D
7
Great Neck
318243
67
12
8
11
2
64
35
D
8
Hempstead
318681
51
26
3
18
2
69
31
R
9
Garden City
318620
86
1
5
7
1
43
56
D
10
Jamaica
317030
9
55
9
15
12
Black Majority
92
8
D
11
Bayside
317619
60
5
18
13
3
62
37
D
12
Astoria
315924
42
5
13
34
5
78
21
D
13
East Elmhurst
318053
15
9
16
57
3
Hispanic Majority
81
18
D
14
St. Albans
318613
22
55
4
13
5
Black Majority
82
17
D
15
Forest Hills
316488
59
5
15
17
5
63
36
D
16
Flushing
317432
24
3
48
21
4
Asian Plurality
68
31
D
17
Bushwick
317715
13
13
7
60
6
Hispanic Majority
87
12
D
18
Bedford-Stuyvesant
317273
26
51
2
17
4
Black Majority
90
9
D
19
Canarsie
317538
28
52
3
14
3
Black Majority
83
17
D
20
Brooklyn Heights
318797
25
51
3
18
3
Black Majority
93
6
D
21
Prospect
318898
19
51
5
22
3
Black Majority
92
7
D
22
East Flatbush
317890
21
56
6
12
5
Black Majority
85
14
R
23
Homecrest
316816
81
1
11
6
2
33
67
D
24
Brighton Beach
317711
56
6
21
13
3
55
44
D
25
North Shore
318201
49
13
10
24
4
66
34
R
26
Arden Heights
323582
84
1
6
7
1
37
62
D
27
East Village
311559
45
6
27
19
3
84
15
D
28
Upper East Side
309905
83
3
8
5
2
75
24
D
29
Upper West Side
310495
73
5
8
11
2
85
14
D
30
Spanish Harlem
309111
22
23
3
50
2
Hispanic Majority
91
8
D
31
Bedford Park
308720
12
19
5
61
3
Hispanic Majority
90
9
D
32
Harlem
309836
2
61
1
33
2
Black Majority
97
2
D
33
Washington Heights
309056
22
12
4
60
2
Hispanic Majority
90
9
D
34
Soundview
309592
10
28
3
55
3
Hispanic Majority
90
10
D
35
Belmont
308704
21
21
3
53
2
Hispanic Majority
84
16
D
36
Mount Vernon
309493
14
60
2
20
4
Black Majority
92
8
D
37
Harrison
309361
73
7
5
13
2
61
38
D
38
Yonkers
309287
56
14
5
21
3
64
35
D
39
Ossining
309454
76
7
3
13
1
59
40
D
40
Clarkstown
317946
72
10
5
10
2
53
47
R
41
Carmel
321768
88
3
2
6
1
46
53
D
42
Poughkeepsie
317728
71
12
2
13
2
58
41
D
43
Kingston
320216
85
6
1
6
2
60
38
D
44
Troy
317388
86
6
3
3
2
58
40
D
45
Plattsburgh
317612
94
2
1
2
2
58
40
D
46
Albany
315314
84
9
2
3
1
63
35
R
47
Moreau
317511
96
1
1
1
1
49
49
R
48
Rome
317470
91
4
1
3
1
44
54
D
49
Syracuse
317634
80
12
2
3
3
62
36
R
50
Utica
317412
91
4
1
2
1
54
45
R
51
Herkimer
316544
96
1
0
2
1
45
53
R
52
Blooming Grove
319845
90
3
1
4
1
46
52
D
53
Ithaca
318178
87
4
3
3
2
61
38
R
54
Penn Yan
317011
95
2
0
2
2
47
51
R
55
Perinton
316789
92
3
3
2
1
51
47
D
56
Rochester
318289
60
26
3
9
2
72
27
R
57
Corning
317311
95
1
1
1
2
42
56
D
58
Amherst
317906
80
14
2
2
1
61
38
R
59
Hamburg
318084
94
1
1
2
2
49
49
D
60
Buffalo
317816
67
23
1
6
3
69
29
R
61
Batavia
318545
94
2
0
2
1
41
57
R
62
Greece
318537
93
3
1
2
1
46
52
Note, also, that I broke the state into four regions for simplicity: Upstate, Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan, Brooklyn/Queens/Staten Island, and Long Island. Here is another table that breaks down the numbers by region:
Region
County
Population
Districts
(+/-)
316280
(+/-)
Long Island
Suffolk
1516544
Nassau
1349555
2866099
9
0
318323
0.6
New York City
Queens
2320449
Brooklyn
2588844
Staten Island
496246
5405539
17
1
317972
0.5
Manhattan
1646675
Bronx
1415056
Westchester
961565
4023296
13
1
309484
-2.1
Ustate New York
Rockland
301308
Other
7010169
7311477
23
-2
317890
0.5
As you can see from the table, I redraw the map so that NYC gained two seats at the expense of Upstate New York, while Long Island remained the same at 9 districts. The population of each district in each region is very equal with the greatest deviation of -2.1% below the ideal population in the region of Westchester/Bronx/Manhattan. The rest of the seats compensate for this by being about .5% above the ideal. Before discussing the statewide changes that would occur under this redistricting plan, first let me go through the four regions themselves...
Starting today at 9:30AM Pacific, the eight current members of the California Redistricting Commission will choose the six additional members (two of each party group) who will complete the panel. Your mission, should you choose to accept it, is to correctly guess who those six members will be.
We're going way downballot, baby. As I like to say: SSPers do it downballot. [and yes, I would buy a t-shirt that said that]
Wait, what is the DLCC and what are their essential races?
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is the downballot counterpart to the attention-hogging DCCC (triage!) and DSCC (save the saucer!). They focus on state legislative races and are especially active this cycle with redistricting hanging in the balance. State legislatures, of course, are crucial players in the process, and swinging them our way will help prevent DeLaymanders. The DLCC party poohbahs, as it were, selected 40 races, mostly focused on redistricting and the most hotly-contested state houses. Party Picks 1-20. Party Picks 21-40. But then the DLCC did something that made me love them. Oh yes, love. The DLCC solicited right here on SSP, nominations for more of these Essential downballot races. And apparently, we nominated the hell out of our candidates, because the DLCC announced The Grassroots 15, instead of just 10. And frankly, looking at the grassroots nominees, we did good y'all.
Why should I care?
Besides being SSP's bread and butter (well, Congressional races are probably the bread & butter...downballot is more like...the arugula?), I would posit that it is these sort of races that are truly the purest form of American democracy. The Founders, I think, both envisioned and practiced this sort of meet-your-neighbors campaigning. Downballot races are also much more dependent on candidates--almost never national forces sweep in and, say, donate $13 million to Sharron Angle when she's running for the Nevada state legislature. But the great thing from the perspective of civic-minded citizens is that participating in races like these can yield bigger and more tangible results than say, giving Jack Conway $20 (not that there's anything wrong with that). But when $20-$25k is enough for the entire race, even a small donation to Manning's campaign can make a big difference. So why does the DLCC say this race matters?
Why this Race Matters: This campaign turned ugly for Democratic nominee Dan Manning a few weeks ago when he discovered a death threat laced with anti-gay slurs on his doorstep. Manning is a decorated West Point graduate who was discharged from the military because of Don't Ask Don't Tell. If Manning wins his race, factional divisions within the state Republican Party would give him considerably more influence in the Kansas House than the GOP's wide chamber majority would suggest.
Democratic gains in state legislatures are crucial for building the "farm team" for higher offices.
That James L. link btw, enumerates the gains made in state legislatures in the 2006 election. And James, of course, is/was right--state Rep. Raj Goyle (KS-04) and state Rep. Bryan Lentz (PA-07), for example, are now in tight races for Congress, and were among those 268 net pickups in 2006 (that was in state Houses alone).
Well, in Dan Manning, Democrats may have a candidate who could eventually go far, far beyond the mostly middle-class neighborhoods of Wichita's 91st District. Find out why, after the jump....
As Crisitunity noted in this afternoon's Daily Digest, the DLCC recently unveiled the first wave of our "Essential Races" program - highlighting key legislative districts that we anticipate will show which way the political tide is turning this fall.
But the Essential Races program is a two-way street.
That's why we're so excited to announce that on October 13th, the DLCC will add 10 grassroots-nominated districts to the Essential Races list, determined by nominations from individuals like you.
Anyone can submit a nomination, and any state legislative campaign in 2010 is eligible.
In my last diary, I ran through KS House seats 1-40, so if you haven't read that, I'd advise starting there. In this edition, I'll examine seats 40-80, which include some in suburban Johnson County (heavily covered in the previous edition) as well as Topeka, Salina, and much of the eastern & central parts of the state, even reaching down to the Wichita exurbs.
KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - 125 seats
Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)
HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS: KS-HR-# <---this is the district's number
43.5R/27D/28.6U <---this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state's registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.
District Map <----this is the official map (pdf format) of this district from the Legislature's website (opens in a new window). Maps from: KSLegislature.org.
COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS: KS-HR-41: 32R/34.5D/32.5U : District Map : (D/Open) - With the retirement of Democrat Marti Crow, this still-competitive, but increasingly blue, seat is now open. In 2008, Crow smacked down Republican Jana Taylor Goodman 59-41, who, having won the Republican primary convincingly, is back for another try at the seat in 2010. Crow and other local Democrats are backing Nancy Bauder, the Exec. Dir. of the Community Development Corp. of Leavenworth, and a small business owner. Gov. Parkinson held a fundraiser for Bauder, whose high-quality website makes Goodman's look outlandishly amateurish. Her economic development credentials are also flawless, and make Goodman's non-existent ones even more pronounced. Rating: Lean Democrat
KS-HR-42: 41R/27D/31U : District Map : (R) Connie O'Brien, a retired special education teacher, won her seat in 2008 with almost 60% of the vote against the underfunded Timothy Moran, but faces a challenge from James "Jim" Pittman, a military veteran, engineer, and Chairman of the Lansing Planning Commission. O'Brien, a mother of 11(!) and vice-chair of Leavenworth County Republicans, is a past President (1996) of Kansans for Life, the most powerful local anti-abortion group. As such, she's aligned herself with the hardcore conservatives, both socially and fiscally. This could make her vulnerable to a strong challenge, though I'm unsure if Pittman can provide it (though he certainly has a good profile to do it). Rating: Likely Republican
On a personal note, having examined lots of local legislators' websites, voting records, biographies, positions and electoral histories, I have concluded that Connie O'Brien is the single worst person in the entire Kansas Legislature. She is a hardcore, unthinking, dogmatic partisan who insults her fellow legislators (Democrats and Republicans alike) while distorting the work of the Legislature. While Connie's Corner sounds like the type of place you might find knitting tips, with Connie O'Brien you'll find intense partisan invective that you won't find on nearly any other legislator's website. And what the hell kind of grandmother votes against requiring people to wear seatbelts while voting to let them smoke in restaurants? She is a lying, egotistical, hypocritical bigot whose presence in the Legislature is a disgrace to the state, and especially to the people of Leavenworth County.
Beard Fight! KS-HR-43: 44R/22D/33.4U : District Map : (R) Mike Kiegerl (at right) was first elected to this new district upon its creation in 2002. He's faced a declining share of the vote as the area urbanizes (well, suburbanizes) and grows more moderate, taking only 53% of the vote in 2008 (thanks to a Libertarian eating a huge 12% of the vote). This cycle, he faces Democrat Kevin King (at left), an analyst at Sprint, who looks a bit like Kiegerl, actually. The area remains quite Republican-friendly and Kiegerl has been a low-profile conservative, but King's been running a pretty strong campaign, racking up endorsements and showing up at community events. Rating: Lean Republican
KS-HR-45: 35.6R/32D/32U : District Map : (R) Tom Sloan - While the moderate Sloan has managed to hold this blue-tinted district since 1995, winning 53-47 over an untested Democrat in 2008, his luck may be about to run out as he faces two-term former Lawrence school board member (and former President) Linda Robinson. She also happens to be a longtime community leader (Governor's Education Council, Lawrence Chamber of Commerce, Rotary Club, etc) while not being terribly old (I'd guess late 50s?) She's about as top-tier as they come for a race like this. Rating: Tossup
KS-HR-47: 46R/25D/28.5U : District Map : (R) Lee Tafanelli - First elected in 2000, Tafanelli faced a somewhat close call in 2002, winning 56%. In 2004 & 2008, he was unopposed. He served in Iraq in 2005-2006, but got back in time to defeat the youthful bluegrass musician/student Jim Faris in 2006 with 65% of the vote. He will face Faris, now an Oskaloosa city councilman (pop. 1165), local journalist and paraeducator, again in 2010. It should be a closer race, now that the warm glow of military service has dissipated more fully from Tafanelli and Faris has some local political credibility. Also, Faris plays the upright bass in his family's mildly successful bluegrass band, which is kinda awesome. And he's a newlywed and expecting a baby this month, actually. Awww... Rating: Likely Republican
One of the things I like best about SSP is finding out about interesting downballot races that would otherwise escape my notice. So in that spirit, I've put together a massively comprehensive guide to the state races in Kansas in 2010.
Wherefore art thou, Sean Tevis, oh star of the 2008 KS State House races?
While Kansas isn't exactly high on anyone's radar for this election cycle, there are plenty of competitive races (KS-03 & KS-04, plus nearly all the statewide offices this year) throughout the state. Join me, won't you, for a look at what's happening downballot in the Kansas state Legislature?
But before we get into an analysis of the various districts in play this cycle, there are a few things to keep in mind...one is that this diary wasn't meant to be published so soon. It was also way too long, so I was going to publish it in parts, but I hadn't decided on what those parts were. Apparently, I'll be doing it in thirds, since I just did seats 1-40, the competitive ones, at any rate.
In 2010, only Kansas House of Representatives seats are up, with the exception of ...
STATE SENATE: KS-StSen-07: Moderate state Sen. David Wysong resigned, leading Republicans to choose state Rep. Terrie Huntington as his replacement. With a fairly moderate profile, she must now fend off challenges from the left and right in the only Senate seat being contested this cycle (the full Senate, including this seat, is up in 2012). Republican David Harvey is coming at her from the right, but she survived (barely) with 54% in the primary. Democrat Wayne E. Hodges awaits in the general. Possessing a master's in public administration, Hodges is an adjunct professor at Park University and a sometime writer/reporter. We could do a lot worse, although Hodges starts at a distinct disadvantage over a battle-tested moderate Republican. Hodges bio
In 2004, Wysong won with 56% of the vote, and was re-elected with 54% in 2008. So it's not a totally unwinnable district. If Hodges can't win it in 2010, I'm betting state Rep. Mike Slattery (KS-HR-24) might try to move up in 2012. Of course, even if Hodges wins, Republicans will still dominate the upper chamber 30-10. Rating: Likely Republican
With that little appetizer out of the way, let's get to the main course of this feast of local political analysis...
Democratic nominee Stephene Moore wields the power of delicious baked goods in her quest for KS-03.
KANSAS HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES - 125 seats
Current composition: 76 Republicans, 49 Democrats (or about 61%-39%)
HOW TO READ THE COMPETITIVE SEAT LISTINGS:
KS-HR-# <---this is the district's number
43.5R/27D/28.6U <---this is the voter affiliation breakdown, R is Republican, D is for Democrat, and U is unaffiliated voters. Statewide, as of June 2010, the state's registration numbers were 43.5% Republican, 27.2% Democrat, and 28.6% Unaffiliated. Out of the roughly 1.7 million registered voters, there are also about 10,000 registered Libertarians, along with 1,169 members of the Reform Party. Also, unless the tenth of a percent is a 4, 5 or 6, I rounded to the nearest full percentage point in most cases.
Before we start, I'd meant to put something in about how off-year elections are actually the better ones for KS Democrats. A smaller electorate is generally a more moderate and better-informed one in Kansas. Sure, the teabaggers may be out in force, but that's nothing new in Kansas. And Democrats, as you'll see, have a lot of competitive candidates up and down the ballot, not only Stephene Moore & Raj Goyle for Congress, not only the best statewide slate we've had in a long while (Holland, Kultala, Six, McKinney & Biggs), but even in many state legislative races, Democrats are now fielding pretty solid candidates who can compete and possibly win. So below, find the first chunk of contested districts, all the ones I've ranked as competitive that number between 1 & 40.
Among these, there are some that are either totally safe (thanks to PVI heavily favoring one party) or uncontested completely. In districts 1-40, those seats are:
Geographically, seats 1-40 are centered on the eastern edge of the state, hence the seemingly high quantity of competitive seats. (generally speaking, KS gets more conservative as you go West). Most of the competitive ones below are in suburban Johnson County, which has been going from rosy red to quite purple rather quickly. The exceptions in competitive seats in 1-40 are the rural, Fort Scott-based 4th, the 10th, which takes in the suburban/exurban/rural areas south of Lawrence, and the Fort Leavenworth-based 40th. The two Fort districts border Missouri, and Lawrence is just one county over from the state line (via Johnson or Wyandotte, aka-the Dot) from the state line.
So yeah, I've been working on a map of the state legislature for a while. I had one ready months ago, but there were a few things I hated about it, so I didn't post it. I finally came up with something that satisfies me about 80-90%.
My goals were as follows:
- As many Democrats as possible, with a focus on protecting incumbent Democrats.
-Make the Dem districts as liberal as possible to aid in getting some real liberal legislation through.
- As few county-crossings as possible, to avoid a potential court challenge. I also tried to be mindful of municipal and cultural boundaries, although in Maryland it's really the counties that people focus on.
We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year. If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says "Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats" next year. To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats. Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982. Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district. I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.
Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a "High Water Mark" here. Note that I didn't calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days. They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.
I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources. I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders. Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup. The Senator's name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.
I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don't want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.
Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.
