I'm not optimistic that Jack Conway will win in this environment, but he's still in the game and so long as Rand Paul is his opponent, it's a safe bet that he'll remain in the game. But Kentucky has become a brutally difficult state for a Democrat to win, and in the last three competitive Senate elections, they always came up short. I haven't encountered a detailed handicap of the current race so I thought I'd offer my own outsider observations and a request for some answers to region-specific inquiries.
I wanted to let you all know that Senator Patty Murray will be doing a Live Chat with Blue America over at Crooks and Liars from 5-6pm PST this evening.
For eighteen years, Patty has been a leader on progressive issues. Her opponent, perennial candidate Dino Rossi, has been attacking her constantly on TV with the help of shadowy special interest groups aligned with Karl Rove.
Ballots arrive in Washington's mailboxes in one week - and we need your help to keep Patty in the Senate and send the special interests packing!
So I figure like a lot of you already have, I need to put my ass on the line and make a projection this year. I delayed this as long as I could, wanting to see how things shake out and hoping things got a bit better for Team Blue. They did, and they didn't: we got Christie O'Donnell, but Russ Feingold is now locked in a tight race.
So here we go. For the record, I have a Republican pickup of six seats right now. Pickups are designated in bold. I have determined for my purposes, its cowardly to call a race a tossup, so I don't have that category in my rankings. I don't have the Dems picking up any Republican seats, although I hold out the most hope in Kentucky. I'm going to try to do this for governors races (and if I get really ambitious, the House) at a later date.
MIAMI GARDENS, FLA - Kendrick Meek, Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, continues to consolidate support from Florida Democrats as he receives the endorsements of Rep. Mark S. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach), Rep. Darren Soto (D-Orlando), and Rep. Scott Randolph (D-Orlando). Statements by Rep. Pafford, Rep. Soto, Rep. Randolph and Kendrick Meek follow:
Rep. Pafford (D-West Palm Beach) said, "Kendrick Meek's career has always been defined by his commitment to the people of Florida. Like me, he has stood in opposition to big oil and offshore oil drilling to protect Florida's coastlines. Kendrick also understands the importance of protecting another natural resource: our children. As a father I am grateful that Kendrick fought to restrict class sizes so that our children can excel. I am honored to give Kendrick my support and will continue to fight with him for Florida."
"Kendrick Meek has a long and reliable record of supporting issues Hispanics care about, including a strong economy, advancing education through smaller class sizes, equality, and fair wages. He was a strong supporter of Justice Sotomayor's nomination and is against the Arizona style immigration law, issues important to our community. Kendrick Meek has asked for our support and I am honored to stand by him in Central Florida," said Rep. Soto (D-Orlando).
"Kendrick Meek has been protecting the people of Florida since his days as a Florida State Trooper. He's not afraid to stand up and speak truth to power. In his opposition to HB 1143, Kendrick stood for all women as a champion of choice. Kendrick is committed to securing justice for every Floridian, not just the ones with big pocketbooks. I am proud to stand by Kendrick and endorse his candidacy for the U.S. Senate," reported Rep. Randolph (D-Orlando)
"I am honored to have the support of these three outstanding public servants. They have each fought tirelessly for the state of Florida and aren't afraid to stand their ground on tough issues. These three men work relentlessly to protect the people of Florida because they understand what's at stake. They are leaders who have strong roots in Florida and in their communities. I value their vision and their insight as principled men of character. Florida is fortunate to have them and I am honored to receive their support," said Kendrick Meek, Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate.
Our campaign has also picked up the support of Al Gore, as he writes.
Florida has had its share of close elections, but this Senate race really ought to be a landslide. And it would be if people just look hard at the facts.
Kendrick Meek is the only one in this race who has consistently opposed offshore drilling. He is the only one who will ensure that we all have quality health care, and the only one who will focus on helping working Americans, rather than wealthy corporations.
Here is the bottom line: We have to help make sure Florida voters have all the facts about Kendrick and his opponents.
We've got just 42 days until Election Day, and Kendrick needs your help so he can keep his ads on the air and tell it like it is. His opponents are getting all the help they need - from corporations and special interests. Kendrick relies on you-his grassroots supporters. He needs you to make a donation today so he can raise $75,000 before the critical September 30 end-of-quarter deadline.
Click here to make an immediate donation to Kendrick's campaign. He needs his grassroots supporters to help him raise $75,000 by the September 30 deadline.
As you know, I'm working hard to raise awareness about the serious threats to our environment. One reason it's so hard is because the polluters don't want any protections for the environment that might reduce their profits, so they have managed thus far to kill climate change legislation that would have protected our children and grandchildren.
Unlike his opponents, Kendrick Meek never has been and never will be in the pocket of these special interests. He was against offshore drilling long before the terrible oil spill in the Gulf, and he's always worked to protect our beaches and wildlife, research and develop energy sources like solar power, and promote a better environment.
With Kendrick in the U.S. Senate, we can rest assured that there's somebody in Washington looking out for us. But that will happen only when he can raise the funds to stay on the air until Election Day-just 42 days away. You are an integral part of Kendrick's campaign because he relies on you for support, not oil companies and special interests.
Please make a donation to Kendrick's campaign today and help him reach his goal of raising $75,000 before the September 30 deadline. If he reaches this goal, I know he'll be able to win in November.
Once people get the facts, the choice will be clear and Kendrick Meek will be the new United States Senator from Florida. With your help today, we can make sure the facts get out.
Sincerely,
Al Gore
We are also having a Rally for Kendrick Meek with former vice president Al Gore.
THURSDAY, SEPT. 30TH
DOORS OPEN: 4:45PM
TAMPA LETTER CARRIERS HALL
3003 W CYPRESS ST
TAMPA, FL 33609
RESERVED TICKETS AVAILABLE ONLINE AT http://www.kendrickmeek.com/al... OR CALL 877-354-6335 FOR DISTRIBUTION LOCATIONS
After completing my US House analysis a few days ago, I figured it was time to post my US Senate analysis.
Some basic background:
1) On paper, the Republicans should be able to take the Senate, but they really only have a 20% chance of doing so due to some candidate issues, specifically in Nevada and Kentucky.
2) Right now, I estimate that the Republicans will gain 6 seats (winning 25 out of the 37) seats at play. This involves me breaking all the tossups for the Republicans except Kentucky and Wisconsin.
3) Democratic majority will remain intact with a 53 to 47 partisan breakdown in the Senate.
Safe Democratic (7)
Hawaii
Maryland
New York
New York
Oregon
Vermont
West Virginia
This is the last part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. It is the second section of two posts focusing on the greatest state in the union (otherwise known as California). The first part of the series can be found here.
Suburban SoCal
Southern California (SoCal, in short) is where the battle for California will be won or lost. Ms. Fiorina must accomplish two tasks in the region.
First, she must clean the clock in the suburban counties outside Los Angeles.
This is the third part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. It will focus on California. Because California is such a big and complicated state, it will have two sections - of which this is the first. The second part can be found here.
California, Section 1
In the greatest state of the union, a fierce senatorial battle is brewing. Former HP executive Carly Fiorina is mounting a tough challenge to incumbent Democrat Barbara Boxer. In an anti-Democratic national environment, polls show the race close and competitive. This post will examine the obstacles Ms. Fiorina will face as she seeks to overcome California's formidable Democratic geography.
As America's most populous state, California contains a number of distinct regions. This post, and the one following, will examine each.
One of the things that has come up in this election is whether the macro vs. micro climate, and which is better in terms of determining the outcome of this year's election. Simply put, Republicans have nominated some pretty bad candidates (Angle, Paul, and possibly Buck, although I think the verdict might still be out on the latter) who would be unelectable in a different year.
Anyway, I thought it would be a fun exercise to put together a list of 10 candidates who were preceived as weak choices for their respective parties at the time, but went on to win in "wave" elections. Feel free to disagree or nominate your own choices below.
These are the dog days of summer as far as politics go, when the polls are many but the insight they offer is fleeting, because it's too damn early to know anything, and when campaigns are coming up with their grand strategies that will unleash victory once people start paying attention, which right now, they mostly aren't.
Nonetheless, I thought it might be instructive to chronicle what I think political junkies should be paying attention to right now, seperating the wheat from the chaff. This is my opinion and by no means comprehensive, so give your own thoughts on this as well.
Right now, the year is battling between 1994 (an all out disaster for the governing Democratic party) and 1982 (where the losses were small and manageable for the ruling Republicans). I don't see much of a sign it's going to be 2002 (where the dominant Republicans actually picked up seats), but who knows. Anything can happen in the next three months.
