Connecticut Gov. M. Jodi Rell says she will not seek re-election next year.
Rell made the announcement in a news conference with reporters Monday at the statehouse in Hartford.
This comes as a surprise, as Rell has had fairly high job approval ratings, although they'd been trending downwards lately, and a recent bit of ethical bad news couldn't have helped matters. Democrats already in the hunt include Secretary of State Susan Bysiewicz, 2006 Senate candidate Ned Lamont, and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy. Without a Republican in the field yet, and given the state's bluish hue, Swing State Project is immediately moving the Connecticut race to "Tossup" (and may move it further in the Democrats' direction once the field gets better sorted out).
UPDATE: The Hartford Courant sheds a little more light on the possible Republican field. Current Lt. Governor Michael Fedele has apparently already said he would seek the GOP nomination if Rell didn't, and also says that Rell privately promised her support in such a case. The article also cites state House minority leader Larry Cafero and state Senate minority leader John McKinney (who begged out of a CT-04 run recently) as possible candidates.
• VA-Gov: It's grown exceedingly hard to see a path to victory for Creigh Deeds in Virginia's gubernatorial race. The polls aren't closing (if anything, the gap may be widening), and there's less than two weeks until election day. What's more, the highest echelons of the Democratic Party are now distancing themselves from Deeds, saying he rejected Barack Obama & Tim Kaine's "road map to victory." The Swing State Project is therefore changing its rating on this race from Lean R to Likely R. (D)
Also, while the second-guessing has begun, PPP suggests that it's just a bad year for Dems and/or a strong opponent in Bob McDonnell: they found that if Tim Kaine had been able to run for re-election, he'd be losing too, 51-43. Nevertheless, 57% think that governors should be able to run for re-election in Virginia (which is the only state left that doesn't allow gubernatorial re-elections), with 35% opposed. Still, Kaine probably wouldn't be running anti-cap-and-trade ads as Deeds is doing in the state's southwest; with the public option already with the Deeds' bus treads all over it, it's one more reason for the Democratic base to lose interest in him.
• CA-Sen: The war between movement conservative candidate Chuck DeVore and the NRSC just keeps building. DeVore is calling attention to a seemingly loose-lips quote from Carly Fiorina that "the chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee has encouraged me to enter the race, reaffirming my belief that Chuck DeVore cannot beat Barbara Boxer," which he says contradicts the NRSC's claim they haven't endorsed in the race. Of course, that's not really an endorsement per se, but his camp also claims that the NRSC has rebuffed his attempts to dialogue with them.
• IA-Sen: Wealthy attorney and one-time Democratic gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin seems to be moving closer to a matchup with Chuck Grassley. She's says she's "more likely than not" to step up. While Grassley would start out with the edge, it would push one more competitive race onto the map for 2010.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Michael Capuano pulled down the endorsement of the state's biggest union in his Democratic primary bid in the special Senate election: the 107,000-member Massachusetts Teachers Association. Capuano has a 96% rating from the MTA's national affiliate, the National Education Association.
• NV-Sen: Former Assemblywoman Sharron Angle has made it official: she's getting into the Nevada Senate race. She had sounded hesitant earlier, but she's emboldened either by her fundraising or by the general climate for conservative candidates right now to jump in. This sets up a confusing and potentially bloody 5-way primary in the Nevada GOP primary (although there's likely to be some field winnowing before then), and potentially, Angle could sneak through with, say, 33%, if she consolidates the hard-right/Club for Growth/teabagger vote (remember that she was the CfG's candidate in the open seat primary in NV-02 in 2006, where she barely lost to Dean Heller). With the opposition consisting of an establishment-backed but empty-suitish candidate in Sue Lowden, a random rich guy (John Chachas), a random name-recognition guy (Danny Tarkanian), and Mark Amodei as seemingly what passes for a moderate in the race, she seems likeliest to become the standard-bearer on the movement conservative right, especially if she somehow gets a CfG endorsement again. And the hard-right Angle would be a rather less imposing general election candidate for Harry Reid than, say, Lowden.
• NY-Sen-B: Former Governor George Pataki seems to be taking note of polls showing him competitive with Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race, although he doesn't sound enthusiastic about it. His spokesperson tells the Daily News that he'll make a decision about the race in the coming weeks, but "friends" say that he's leaning toward "no."
• UT-Sen: The name of Tim Bridgewater (the former Utah County GOP chair who's lost several primary elections) surfaced earlier in the year in connection with a GOP primary challenge to Bob Bennett in the Senate race, but faded away as AG Mark Shurtleff seemed to gobble up all the oxygen to Bennett's right. Suddenly, Bridgewater's back, saying he'll join the primary field.
• GA-Gov: Rasmussen has another poll of the gubernatorial primaries in Georgia; the only news is that Thurbert Baker seems to be gaining on ex-gov Roy Barnes. Barnes still has a big lead on the Dem side at 43 (42 in August), followed by Baker at 19 (up from 9 in August), David Poythress at 4, Dubose Porter at 4, and Carl Camon at 3. On the GOP side, Insurance Comm. John Oxendine is in command at 27, with Karen Handel at 12, Nathan Deal at 9, and Eric Johnson, Ray McBerry, and Austin Scott all at 3.
• IL-Gov: Rasmussen also looked at the Illinois governor's race, apparently as part of their IL-Sen sample from last week; since nobody seems to know who any of the Republicans are, they just ran a Generic D/Generic R ballot, which Generic D won, 43-36. Incumbent Dem Governor Pat Quinn clocks in with approvals that are much lower than any other pollster has seen, at 45/53.
• ME-Gov (pdf): PPP polled the Maine governor's race as part of its poll on Question 1, and finds what R2K found a few weeks ago, which is that nobody has any idea what's going on. As with R2K, they found "not sure" dominating the head-to-heads and even the favorability questions. Unlike R2K, though, they found that moderate GOP state Sen. Peter Mills matches up well against the Dems, beating state Sen. President Libby Mitchell 34-31 and ex-AG Steve Rowe 33-25. Mitchell beats rich guy Les Otten 34-26, but Otten beats Rowe 28-26. Meanwhile, one more sorta-prominent Republican now says he's seriously considering the race: Steve Abbott, who's currently Susan Collins' chief of staff.
• NJ-Gov: Two more polls split the difference between Jon Corzine and Chris Christie in New Jersey. Democracy Corps, who've usually been Corzine's most favorable pollster, finds a 3-point race, with Corzine at 42, Christie at 39, and Chris Daggett at 13. SurveyUSA, on the hand, has tended to lean toward Christie and continue to do so, giving him a 2-point lead, with Christie at 41, Corzine at 39, and Daggett at 19. Christie, for his part, is turning for help to the one Republican in New Jersey that most people still like: ex-Governor Tom Kean, who just cut a TV ad on Christie's behalf.
• RI-Gov: Businessman Rory Smith has announced his candidacy on the Republican side for Rhode Island governor. Insiders are comparing him to current GOP Gov. Don Carcieri, who was also a little-known businessman before winning in 2002; unlike Carcieri, though, Smith is socially liberal. He may have the field to himself; little-known state Rep. Joe Trillo, who was viewed as the default frontrunner after former Senate candidate Stephen Laffey declined, recently said that he too is leaning against the race.
• AK-AL: Trouble just keeps following Republican Rep. Don Young around, and there's more of it today. A retired oil industry exec from VECO, Bill Allen, told the Justice Department that his company gave paid for fundraising events for Young to the tune of $130K to $195K, and also gave gifts to Young which didn't get disclosed. This provides the first hard evidence linking Young to the same VECO scandal that took down Ted Stevens last year. Young has not been charged in the matter, although suspicion was cast his way in previous VECO-related testimony. Young, who narrowly won in 2008, faces another competitive race in 2010 (assuming he's still in office at that point) from Democratic state Rep. Harry Crawford.
• IL-08: On the "some dude" front, businessman (and apparently, not the former Eagles guitarist) Joe Walsh (who ran unsuccessfully against Sidney Yates in the 9th back in the 90s) announced that he'll run against Melissa Bean in the 8th.
• NY-23: Now that all the cool kids are endorsing Doug Hoffman, the floodgates are starting to open among the cognoscenti of the conservative movement: Rick Santorum endorsed, and so too did former presidential candidate MichaelSteve Forbes. Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty, who seems like he's still trying to decide whether to be establishment or movement in 2012, has his finger in the air but said he'll probably endorsed and gave a clue by saying he had issues with the way Scozzafava got the nomination.
• VA-05: Also on the "some dude" front, businessman and first-time candidate Ron Ferrin got into the overstuffed Republican field to go against freshman Rep. Tom Perriello. State Sen. Robert Hurt seems to have the inside track, though.
• VA-St. House: One other worry for Democrats in Virginia is that Creigh Deeds' seeming negative coattails could cost them some seats in the state House of Delegates (where the GOP has a 53-43 edge, with 2 R-caucusing indies and 2 vacancies). Not Larry Sabato gives a preview of the hot races there, helpfully breaking it down into Tossup, Lean, and Likely for us. They see 2 GOP seats and 3 Dem seats as leaning toward takeovers, with 5 true tossups, but a strong McDonnell performance could push things more in the GOP direction.
• Campaign Finance: Here's an interesting development on the campaign finance arena, although experts are still trying to sort out just what it means. The FEC won't appeal an appellate court decision that would allow outside groups to spend significantly more money on elections. The case was brought by EMILY's List; the decision allows them and other 527s to use soft money (in addition to hard money) to pay for ads and GOTV. The Obama administration's Solicitor General, Elena Kagen, however, can still appeal the case without the FEC's involvement.
• 2010: It sounds like some of the more timid members of the House Democrats were in need of a pep talk, so Chris Van Hollen of the DCCC sent around a memo with a nice list of bullet points on why 2010 won't be 1994.
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (39)
Chris Christie (R): 38 (40)
Chris Daggett (I): 14 (11)
Undecided: 7 (9)
(MoE: ±4%)
That's the second poll this week which has shown Jon Corzine with the slimmest of leads. And, as happened on Tuesday, there's also another poll alongside this one showing Corzine just behind.
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 40
Chris Christie (R): 43
Chris Daggett (I): 14
Undecided: 2
(MoE: ±4%)
Unfortunately, this is SUSA's first poll of NJ-Gov, so we have no trendlines here. But they're seeing the same thing as everyone else - a very close race:
Back when we last changed our rating on this race, we were at the point on the Pollster chart where the distance between the red and blue lines had been getting wider and wider, and was in fact at the widest it had ever been - "peak Christie," you might call it. At the time, we felt that this race exhibited a number of signs that set it apart from the usual "unloved Jersey Dem comes back in the end" storyline. Yet we did conclude with this remark:
This doesn't mean we think Corzine can't stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.
Well, things have changed. True, Corzine's popularity still sucks, and so does the economy. But it turns out Chris Christie wound up being a whole lot suckier. His non-stop parade of ethical lapses and his utter failure to articulate any kind of vision for the Garden State have proven that as a candidate - dare I say it? - he's a lightweight. Even the conservative Wall Street Journal has hammered him for his "empty" campaign. In retrospect, though, I suppose we shouldn't have expected much more than this from a handpicked Karl Rove-brand US Attorney.
The other factor, of course, is the emergence of independent Chris Daggett, who has almost certainly been siphoning off a good helping of anti-incumbent discontent. SUSA, interestingly, shows that similar proportions of folks who voted for Corzine in 2005 and his Republican opponent, Doug Forrester, are defecting to Daggett. But both my intuition and Daggett's overall trendlines make me think that if he weren't in the race, plenty of Democrats would still be defecting but fewer Republicans would be. In other words, Daggett offers an escape valve for some anti-Corzine votes that would otherwise go to Christie.
Add in Corzine's considerable money advantage and it's enough for us to conclude that this race is anybody's game. So we're moving NJ-Gov back to "Tossup." Election night should be a wild ride.
Because four terms as Governor just aren't enough:
Former Gov. Terry Branstad filed papers today creating a campaign committee for governor, signaling the beginning of a potential comeback campaign for the Republican and reshaping the race for the 2010 primary election....
Schwarm, who plans to file the paperwork, said it should not be interpreted as a definitive sign that Branstad is committed to running. But veteran Republican strategists see the move as a tacit campaign launch, establishing Branstad as the prohibitive favorite capable of thinning the robust primary field.
Branstad, the current President of Des Moines University, was Iowa's Republican Governor from 1982 to 1998. You might think that makes him an ancient mummy, but he was only 35 when first elected, so he's only 62 years old (heck, he probably has another four terms in him). Branstad has polled well, pulling down high favorables and beating current Democratic incumbent Chet Culver in head-to-heads. Polls, however, have also shown a surprisingly low number of people thinking it's a good idea for him to run again, especially among older Iowans (the ones who actually remember him).
This suggests that while Branstad starts out in strong position, once voters are reminded of the lingering negatives from his administration he may lose some steam. There's also the little matter of the Republican primary, where it seems unlikely that some of the hard-right candidates (like Bob vander Plaats) will step out of his way. With all this in mind, Swing State Project is changing this race to a Tossup.
SSP announced changes to eight race ratings recently. Since then, we've added one more race to the list (VA-Gov), and we're changing the rating once more on another (AR-Sen). Our writeups for all of these are below. You can find our complete ratings here: Sen | Gov.
Senate races:
AR-Sen (Lincoln): Safe D to Lean D
When we were debating our ratings changes a few weeks ago, we decided to push the Arkansas Senate contest to Likely D. But that was then. We're now moving the race to Lean D, and even that is probably pretty generous. All the recent polling on this race has shown Blanche Lincoln to be in pretty dire shape - R2K, PPP, and Rasmussen all have her mired in the 40s. The latter two both have her losing to the most recent & credible entrant into the race, non-crazy state Sen. Gilbert Baker.
Arkansas is a rough state which really hates Obama. While it had for a long time been much friendlier to Dems than most of its Southern neighbors, it now seems to be playing catch-up with a vengeance. In a word, Lincoln is in trouble. Probably the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column at this point is that Gilbert is still something of an unknown quantity. We'll be watching him, and especially his upcoming fundraising reports, very closely. (D)
CA-Sen (Boxer): Safe D to RTW
You might recall this race started out as a Race to Watch, then vanished once it was clear that Arnold Schwarzenegger was not going to run against Barbara Boxer. We're giving it a second look, though, because the NRSC has found another lesser celebrity, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina. Fiorina (assuming she runs - she's still in exploratory mode) has a few things going for her: She's moderate enough to get some traction in the general (assuming she gets by conservative Assemblyman Chuck DeVore in the primary), the NRSC clearly will go all out to help her out, and, most of all, she has gobs of money she can spend on herself. On the downside, she was very publicly and unceremoniously dumped from HP after presiding over its downfall, and she doesn't have much political discipline yet, as seen by her getting muzzled after a brief stint as a McCain surrogate. Polls have ranged from single-digit to 20-point gaps in favor of Boxer, so the race bears further watching. (C)
NV-Sen: Likely D to Tossup
Harry Reid may have more coin the in the bank than the Bible's got psalms, but that can't cover up for the fact that Nevadans have downright frosty feelings for him. Despite avoiding a challenge from any top-shelf GOPers, poll after poll after poll after poll after poll has shown that Reid's B-grade opponents are all clobbering him in the court of public opinion. (It also looks like Reid might have even mustered a B+ challenger, in the form of state Sen. Mark Amodei.)
Making matters worse for the embattled Majority Leader is the fact that son Rory Reid has a clear, uncontested path to the Democratic gubernatorial nomination. Rory seems to be one of the weakest candidates the Democrats could muster for this race, and pappy is apparently unhappy that the Reid name will be so over-exposed on the Nevada ballot next year. Like a major collision that can't be prevented, the trajectory of this race is both catastrophically ugly and mesmerizing at once. (J)
NY-Sen-B (Gillibrand): Safe D to RTW
The New York State Republican Party is in a shambles, and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand looks strong, with lots of money in the bank, endorsements galore, and powerful friends behind her. The only possible wrinkle here is named George Pataki. The former governor has been floated as a potential challenger for some time, but he doesn't seem to have actually indicated any interest. Still, out of an abundance of caution, we're going to slot this in as a Race to Watch, in case Pataki does get in. (D)
Gubernatorial races:
CO-Gov (Ritter): Lean D to Tossup
Bill Ritter is being squeezed from all sides. Not only is there new evidence that Democrats are beginning to lag in Colorado after several cycles of strong growth, Ritter has succeeded in making enemies out of friends by vetoing every major labor-friendly bill that the Democratic legislature has churned out over his first term. Polls have shown Ritter in trouble against his Republican opponents, and it wouldn't be surprising if many rank-and-file Democrats don't feel compelled to bail Ritter's ass out at on Election Day next year. (J)
IA-Gov (Culver): RTW to Likely D
Freshman Gov. Chet Culver's approval ratings have been hard to pin down - as low as 36% in August according to SUSA before rebounding to 41% this month, but 50% according to a recent Selzer survey, down from 55% in April. Luckily, though, Culver hasn't drawn much in the way of opposition - yet. But in this toxic political environment, few incumbents are truly safe, and regardless of which pollster you believe, it would be hard to describe Culver's approval ratings as "good."
Even more worrisome, former Gov. Terry Branstad is supposedly considering the race, and his favorables are quite strong. The good news, though, is that Branstad hasn't been in office for a decade, and his numbers now are a lot better than they were at the end of his tenure. That will change once he faces a real campaign. Plus, Branstad's entrance might trigger a civil war between his "moderate" faction and the conservative base. Still, Branstad would be a very formidable opponent and if he does face off against Culver, we will very likely revise our rating once more. (D)
MA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
With the long-rumored but now-official entry of Treasurer Tim Cahill into the race, we've got a serious shot at seeing Massachusetts elect its first-ever Independent Governor. Cahill, who recently dropped his Democratic affiliation in order to challenge the unpopular incumbent Democratic Governor Deval Patrick without the hassle of a primary, seems to have as good a shot as anyone at winning this race. Polls of the race that have just focused on a head-to-head between Patrick and Republican challengers (convenience store czar Christy Mihos, health care magnate Charlie Baker) have given narrow edges to the GOP, while three-way polls have generally shown Cahill either leading or tied with Patrick, as Cahill seems to eat up the protest votes of a lot of Democrats who've lost patience with Patrick. Massachusetts has a bad habit of electing moderate non-Democrats as Governor to counteract its Democratic supermajorities in the legislature, so this race is truly anybody's ball game now. (C)
VA-Gov (Open): Tossup to Lean R
We're a little late on this one, but we had wanted to give Creigh Deeds the benefit of the doubt. At this stage, though, it's hard to see how Bob McDonnell doesn't have the edge. While the race has tightened somewhat lately, Deeds has not led in a single poll since a very brief post-primary bounce back in June. In 2005, this race also tightened up very late, so we're not ruling out a move back to Tossup status before the end. But Tim Kaine's move began in September, and now it's already October. Time's running out. (D)
WI-Gov (Open): Lean D to Tossup
Democratic Gov. Jim Doyle's decision to retire rather than to seek a third term may actually prove helpful to Democrats in the long run, as "incumbent fatigue" will not be an issue in retaining this office next year. Still, it's a wide open race in the near-term, and the GOP has a pair of credible candidates in Milwaukee County Executive Scott Walker and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann. Democratic Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton is in the race, but she may have to campaign against popular Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett for the nomination. (J)
Terry Goddard (D): 42
Jan Brewer (R-inc): 35
Some other: 13
Not sure: 11
Terry Goddard (D): 44
Fife Symington (R): 37
Some other: 9
Not sure: 10
(MoE: ±4.5%)
It's becoming very clear that Democrats have a good shot at a pickup in the Arizona governor's race, where appointed Republican governor Jan Brewer is struggling, both in her own primary and against Democratic AG Terry Goddard. Last week's PPP poll giving a big edge to Goddard (beating Brewer by 10 and Symington by 23) seemed fluky at the time, but now Rasmussen is out with numbers almost as good. Now that Brewer's seeming weakness has been thoroughly quantified, we're moving this race to "Tossup."
Rasmussen finds Brewer laboring under a 37/57 job approval and 42/54 favorable. Compounding her situation, Brewer couldn't have helped herself with remarks last week dissing Phoenix (calling it a "hell hole"), where most of the state's voters are, while at a Tucson appearance. Convicted-then-pardoned ex-Gov. Fife Symington, inexplicably looking for a comeback, fares even worse at 36/54 favorable, while Goddard is at 54/38. (Rasmussen doesn't test state Treasurer Dean Martin, who also seems a likely GOP primary opponent to Brewer.)
Douglas, midway through his fourth term, will hold a news conference at 11 a.m. in the Governor's Ceremonial Office in the Statehouse.
Multiple Republican sources have said the governor has decided against running for a fifth two-year term.
Douglas met with his staff and with cabinet members at 10 a.m. Member of the administration now are making their way to the Statehouse for the 11 a.m. announcement.
Douglas perfected the knack of survival in this deep blue liberal state, but he was already drawing some decent challengers -- state Sen. Doug Racine (a former Lt. Governor who lost a gubernatorial race to Douglas by two points in 2002), state Sen. Susan Bartlett, and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz. In his announcement (which is streaming live right now), Douglas says that he won't run for the Senate or the House in 2010, and he'll serve out the remainder of his term.
Republicans will likely turn to the next biggest name on their bench to take over in 2010 -- sitting Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie, who, somewhat amazingly, has also managed to win his office on his own right since 2002.
UPDATE (Crisitunity): With this decision, Swing State Project is changing our rating of this race to "Tossup." Given the state's decidedly blue hue, "Lean Democratic" wouldn't be out of the question, but Dubie is no slouch and we are intensely aware of the capacity of the Progressives in Vermont to screw things up for Democrats. If it's clear that Anthony Pollina won't get in the race this time, we will feel more confident about Dems' chances.
Chris Dodd may have received a bit of good news lately on the Countrywide mortgage fiasco (the Senate Ethics Committee cleared him of any wrongdoing and the Hartford Courant's editorial page recently came to his defense on the matter, saying that there was no there there), but it really remains to be seen whether or not the damage done to his reputation can reverse itself. The most recent Q-Poll has ex-Rep. Rob Simmons beating Dodd by a 48-39 margin; if an incumbent under 50 is in an ugly situation, an incumbent under 40 is in seriously dangerous waters. While we've held out hope that Dodd can correct his course, he doesn't seem to be doing any better than running in place. His best hope right now may be for an extremely expensive, nasty Republican primary.
Of course, with the recent news that Dodd is undergoing treatment for prostate cancer, it's possible that he may choose to retire, in which case this race will be turned upside-down yet again. (J)
IL-Sen (Open): Likely D to Lean D
It's difficult to imagine Barack Obama's home state voting to put a check on the White House's power next year, but with Rep. Mark Kirk making his candidacy official and popular state Attorney General Lisa Madigan taking a pass on the race, the GOP has about as good of a shot as they're gonna get. Yes, Kirk didn't exactly have the smoothest launch possible, but his most recent Twitterfail isn't the kind of stuff that will sear itself into anyone's lasting memory besides the most diehard of newsjunkies. What he does bring to the table, though, is the resume of a battle-hardened incumbent who has performed the rare feat of surviving in a Dem-leaning district since 2000.
The likely Democratic nominee, on the other hand, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, is bringing some baggage to the table in the form of his family's bank loans to convicted felons and his unsuccessful overhaul of the state's college investment program -- a fund that lost $85 million under Giannoulias' watch. Giannoulias touts his ties to Barack Obama at every possible moment, but it remains to be seen whether Obama, who is notoriously squeamish when it comes to campaigning for fellow Democrats, will come to his aid anytime soon.
Of course, the news that Roland Burris may be reconsidering his decision to retire doesn't help things out in the least. The sheer power of Illinois' blue slant is the only thing keeping this race out of the Tossup column. (J)
MA-Gov (Patrick): Likely D to Lean D
Deval Patrick's approval ratings are bad even by the standards of most other governors in northeast and Rust Belt states. On top of that, a recent Boston Globe poll shows Patrick narrowly trailing both of his prospective Republican opponents. This poll is also likely to encourage Democrat-turned-Independent state Treasurer Tim Cahill to get into the race. The good news for Democrats is that Cahill seems to sop up most of the Democratic anti-Patrick protest votes that were going to the Republicans. The bad news for Patrick, in particular, though, is that there are just so many protest votes that it's plausible Cahill could ride them to victory. It's entirely possible that, a year from now, we could have two "Lean I" races on our board (here and in Rhode Island). (C)
Jon Corzine (D-inc): 41 (40)
Chris Christie (R): 53 (50)
Undecided: 6 (9)
(MoE: ±2.5%)
Optimists like to point out that New Jersey seems to hate all its politicians, but hates Republicans a little bit more. This would explain why the Garden State GOP hasn't won a single statewide race since 1997, and hasn't won by more than a single percentage point since 1985. So it's certainly tempting to think that Jon Corzine might sweat this one out like so many of his Democratic predecessors have.
But this race simply feels different. In particular, the economy - and the deep unhappiness it engenders - weighs more heavily than at almost any time in recent or even distant memory. The traditional unemployment rate is almost 9% in Jersey. Broader measures like the U6 are much worse. Painful budget cuts have been made. And Corzine has also stumbled on his own, like with his series of failed plans involving the always-sensitive issue of turnpike tolls. Like it or not - fair or not - the folks in power get blamed when things go to hell. If you're a guy like Jon Corzine, who didn't start off with high approvals and goodwill to burn, it puts you in a very precarious spot.
Ordinarily, we don't like to move races with unindicted incumbents past "Tossup." But there's nothing ordinary about 2009, or these poll numbers:
If you want to see what a classic "Jersey Dem sweats one out" race looks like, check out this chart of Bob Menendez vs. Tom Kean, Jr. from 2006 (turn off "poll results" to better see the trendlines):
Sure, Menendez definitely started perspiring a bit in September, but he never spent months lagging by double digits. He also benefitted from a good economy and a huge Democratic wave - and he wasn't an incumbent with anemic favorables.
Back in 2009, things have picked up somewhat for Corzine in recent months, but his Republican opponent, Chris Christie, has also steadily improved. And the other internals on this Q-poll are a lot more worrying. Corzine's job approval is at its lowest ever (33-60), his attacks on Christie for being close to Bush don't resonate at all with voters (only 10% call it a "fair criticism"), and the state legislature "generic ballot" is a virtual tie at 45D-43R (in a state where Dems otherwise hold wide margins in the lege).
This, of course, is just one poll - but pick apart any survey and you'll find plenty of bad news. The fact that Corzine leaked an internal allegedly showing him at 38% is perhaps most disturbing of all. Is this supposed to constitute good news? (The fact that no one's seen the full memo is also telling.)
We're also pretty troubled by word that Corzine might tap a reality TV star (yes, you read that right) for the newly-created post of Lieutenant Governor. This is beyond bizarre, and is reminiscent of John McCain picking Sarah Palin as his number two. Let's pray Corzine doesn't go this route - but it's not a heartening sign that he's considering something so gimmicky when he should be picking someone experienced and fit to succeed him if need be.
The one genuinely positive event on the horizon is the rally Obama is doing with Corzine on Thursday. But that's just a one-time event, and given how parsimoniously the President spends his political captial, I doubt Obama's going to attach himself to Corzine at the hip and drag him across the finish line in November.
As I say, this isn't a move we make lightly, but nonetheless we're changing the rating on NJ-Gov to "Lean Republican." This doesn't mean we think Corzine can't stage a comeback, or that Christie has this one in the bag. It simply means that he has the edge right now, something which seems hard to deny at this point. But if that changes, our rating will, too.
• WI-Gov: Hot on the heels of changing Ohio to Lean Dem yesterday, today we're downgrading the Wisconsin gubernatorial race to Lean Dem as well. We aren't reacting to any one recent event (the only twopolls so far have dramatically disparate results, but they average out to a tight race), but realized that we had no business keeping WI-Gov at Likely Dem if OH-Gov is going to be Lean Dem.
• CA-Sen: Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina seems to be moving toward running against Barbara Boxer after all, not taking formal steps but rubbing elbows with the right people. Here's some ill-timed bad PR for her, though: Fiorina has been telling people that she's now CEO of her own company (Carly Fiorina Enterprises) and her own foundation (Fiorina Foundation), but neither one has been registered with the proper state or federal authorities... which might lead some to question her vaunted business organization skills.
• IL-Sen: The Fix reports that alleged field-clearing heavyweight Rep. Mark Kirk may still face a contested GOP primary in the Senate race; state party chair Andy McKenna, recruited as the GOP's Plan B, seems to be staying in for now, and the state's Republican congressional delegation is staying, at least publicly, neutral. The flashpoint may be Kirk's recent vote in favor of cap-and-trade.
• MO-Sen: In the "did he really just say that file?" Roy Blunt offers up a doozy: in a conservative talk radio interview, he said that maybe it would have been better if the federal government had never created Medicare, Medicaid, or VA health care, because it "distorts the marketplace." Way to put the senior citizen vote in play there, Roy!
• NV-Sen: Off-the-record GOP consultants say that a John Ensign resignation may be "on the table" and that there are worries that there may still be even more undisclosed payments to the Hamptons floating around. If there are public calls for resignation from the other key GOPers in Nevada -- Gov. Jim Gibbons, Lt. Gov. Brian Krolicki, Rep. Dean Heller -- it's time to prepare the fork for sticking (of course, with two of those three in deep scandal of their own, there's a certain pot/kettle thing going on).
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter made his first aggressive moves against possible primary challenger Rep. Joe Sestak today, calling him a "flagrant hypocrite" for not being a Democrat until 2006. (Sestak was an Independent during his decades of military service, and switched to Dem once he was out of the service.) Hmmm... remind me again which year Arlen Specter became a Democrat? Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the NRSC just can't help themselves from hiking the Appalachian Trail despite their efforts to fall back in love with Pat Toomey. They've been talking behind the scenes with state Sen. Jane Orie about running in the primary (although she's almost as conservative as Toomey, so it's not clear what benefit that would provide).
• AK-Gov: Guess who's saying "thanks but no thanks" to the assistance offered by the divine Sarah Palin: the GOP candidates in the two very-close blue-state gubernatorial races this year, Chris Christie and Bob McDonnell. (On the other hand, Rick Perry, who needs to rally every wingnut he can get his hands on in order to win his primary in Texas, welcomes her.) The Hill also sniffs out a number of other candidates facing possibly tough races who'd like her to stay far, far away, including Reps. Lee Terry, Frank Wolf, Mike Castle, and Pete Hoekstra. (In his efforts to become World's Most Tone-Deaf Man, Roy Blunt welcomes her help, though.) Finally, check out Peggy Noonan's authoritative takedown of Palin today; say what you will about the whole pure evil thing, the woman has a way with words.
• PA-Gov: With a lot of people looking at the Democratic field in the Governor's race and asking "is that all there is?" a familiar face is considering the race: Montgomery Co. Commissioner (and former Rep. and 2004 Senate candidate) Joe Hoeffel. In his favor, he'd be the only elected official from the Philly area in the race (Tom Knox is from Philly, but has never held office).
• IL-10: With Rep. Mark Kirk kindly leaving an open seat for us, both the Daily Herald and Roll Call take a look at the developing fields in this race. On the Dem side, the leading contenders are state Sens. Michael Bond (already in the race) and Susan Garrett. Dan Seals, who lost in 2006 and 2008 to Kirk, is also considering a third try. The only GOPer in the race is Patricia Bird, but businessman Dick Green and state Rep. Elizabeth Coulson are likely contestants.
• NY-23: Don't count out state Sen. Darrel Aubertine on becoming the Democratic candidate in NY-23, despite the ongoing craziness in the New York state Senate. Although the July 17 filing deadline is coming up and he hasn't made any noise about it, Aubertine is still considering it and will have the requisite family sit-down about it once he has the time (which maybe he'll have, now that the Senate is back to "normal").
• VA-05: Rep. Tom Perriello has become the focus in the tug-of-war over cap-and-trade. A week after the NRCC made him the sole target of a TV attack ad for voting in favor, the League of Conservation Voters is running thank-you ads in his central Virginia district.
• Mayors: Louisiana Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu has options, but he ruled out a third run at New Orleans mayor, for which he'd been considered front-runner. A run for Governor in 2011 (or maybe not until the open seat in 2015) now seems likelier. This leaves city councilor Arnie Fielkow in the driver's seat for the next mayoral election.
• Caucuses: This seems like an odd time for this to happen, in the middle of the fight over health care reform: the Congressional Progessive Caucus canned its executive director, Bill Goold, without much explanation.
R2K is now the third straight pollster to peg Strickland in the mid-to-low 40s, apparently solving the OH-Gov polling mystery. This is not a pretty chart:
>
One important thing to note, though: R2K has Obama's favorables at 59-35 in Ohio, while Quinnipiac pegs them at 49-44. R2K is probably the outlier, though, as the two firms show similar favorables for Strickland, and Q's job approval numbers for Obama now match up with PPP's.
As a result of this recent nosedive, the Swing State Project is changing its rating on OH-Gov from Likely Dem to Lean Dem. Of course, it's early; if Strickland can pull out of this tailspin, then we'll be ready to adjust our rating once again as needed.
R2K also looked at the Senate race:
Lee Fisher (D): 22
Jennifer Brunner (D): 17
Undecided: 61
(MoE: ±5%)
Lee Fisher (D): 42
Rob Portman (R): 35
Undecided: 23
Jennifer Brunner (D): 40
Rob Portman (R): 36
Undecided: 24
(MoE: ±4%)
These numbers are very similar to those shown by Quinnipiac and PPP.
The Swing State Project is changing ratings on five different gubernatorial races, three of which favor Dems and two of which favor the GOP. We're also republishing our full race rating chart. As always, you can find our perma-post here.
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
MA (Patrick)
MD (O'Malley)
NM (Open)
OH (Strickland)
WI (Doyle)
CA (Open)
CO (Ritter)
HI (Open)
ME (Open)
OR (Open)
FL (Open)
MI (Open)
MN (Open)
NV (Gibbons)
NJ (Corzine)
PA (Open)
RI (Open)
VA (Open)
AZ (Brewer)
GA (Open)
OK (Open)
TN (Open)
AL (Open)
KS (Open)
SC (Open)
SD (Open)
WY (Open)
Races to Watch:
AK (Palin)
CT (Rell)
IA (Culver)
IL (Quinn)
NY (Paterson)
TX (Perry)
UT (Herbert)
VT (Douglas)
Georgia (Open): Likely R to Lean R
With former Gov. Roy Barnes' entrance into the race, this contest just became very interesting. Two different surveys (Insider Advantage and Research 2000) have shown Barnes in a good position against a range of possible Republican candidates. Barnes first has to navigate the Dem primary (where Attorney General Thurbert Baker & House Minority Leader DuBose Porter present formidable obstacles), though the only primary poll to date shows him with a big lead, and he may yet clear the field. This race is likely to become more competitive rather than less so as time progresses.
Iowa (Culver): Safe D to RTW
While we haven't seen any head-to-head polling in Iowa yet this year, Gov. Chet Culver's approvals have started to head southward, according to both SurveyUSA and the Des Moines Register. Meanwhile, the GOP appears to have netted a relatively non-crazy candidate, former state House Speaker Chris Rants. Are we really worried about Culver's prospects? No - or at least, not yet. But with so many incumbent governors taking scorching heat for the brutal economy, this race bears watching.
Massachusetts (Patrick): RTW to Likely D
Most other folks with poll numbers as lousy as Deval Patrick's would be in a lot more trouble than this. Luckily, he's running for re-election in Massachusetts. Still, Kwik-E-Mart magnate Christy Mihos, who garnered 7% of the vote as an independent in 2006, is seeking a rematch, and he got more money than Picasso got paint. It's enough to give Patrick serious headaches.
Minnesota (Open): Lean R to Tossup
Even if Tim Pawlenty had decided to seek re-election, this race likely would have reached Tossup status at some point. But with T-Paw busy checking out the color of his parachute, the timetable's accelerated. The field is very much in flux on both sides, but if anything, Dems will have a slight edge just given the blue background hue of this state.
Vermont (Douglas): Safe R to RTW
We aren't getting excited about the possibility of chucking out Republican Jim Douglas just yet. But the Dems have a better slate of potential candidates (including Lt. Gov. Doug Racine and Secretary of State Deb Markowitz) than they have in the past, and Douglas is facing his first election in hard times. He's started to get dinged on some local issues, and of course had a high-profile defeat on gay marriage. And a January R2K poll showed him with a not-so-hot 52-41 approval rating. The key here will be Vermont's left-wing Progressive Party; if they hold their fire, then a Democrat could do some real damage.
One consequence of Gov. Jon Huntsman's sudden decision to accept Barack Obama's offer of the position of Ambassador to China is that the newly-promoted governor, current Lt. Gov. Gary Herbert, will need to face the voters in 2010. Huntsman's term would have taken him through 2012, but Utah law is such that a replacement Governor newly elevated in a term's first year faces a special election at the next regularly scheduled general election. (Remember, Huntsman was just re-elected in 2008.)
Herbert seems to be giving every indication that he will not be a placeholder and run for re-election in 2010 (for the remaining two years of the term; if he won, he'd still have to run again in the regularly-scheduled 2012 election if he wanted a full term). However, history may not be on his side. Lt. Gov. Olene Walker took over as Utah Governor in 2003 after Mike Leavitt became the Bush-era EPA Administrator, but because of Utah's weird nominating procedures (previously discussed here), she didn't even make it into the primary for her 2004 re-election, finishing third at the convention. (The top two finishers at the nominating convention advance to the primary, unless one candidate receives more than 60% at the convention, in which case he or she moves straight to the general.)
Herbert does not sound as out-of-step with activist base that dominates the nominating conventions as the somewhat moderate Walker, so he may still survive. He may still face some top-shelf competition, starting with AG Mark Shurtleff, last seen screwing up the announcement of his Senate primary candidacy against Bob Bennett via Twitter. Although Shurtleff is rumored be "Senate or bust," he may be tempted to run against the less-known Herbert rather than longtime institution Bennett. (Another Bennett challenger, Tim Bridgewater, may be also interested in swapping races.)
There's also the possibility that a decent Democrat might be more attracted to a chaotic, off-year gubernatorial election. That probably wouldn't include Rep. Jim Matheson (who'd still have to give up his seat in 2010 to run), but it could include Salt Lake County Mayor Peter Corroon or Salt Lake City Mayor Ralph Becker, who could run without giving up their current seats. While Swing State Project is skeptical of any Democrats' chances in this race (it is, after all, Utah), there is enough fluidity here, especially on the GOP side, for us to add this as a "Race to Watch" to our 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings.
UPDATE (James): The Salt Lake Tribune touched bases with both Corroon and Jim Matheson, and they both are refusing to rule anything out:
A run for governor "is certainly not something I was planning for," said Corroon, who "would never say never." He says his "intent" is to finish his second term as Salt Lake County mayor.
Matheson says he will weigh his options. "In politics you always look at your opportunities," he said, "and that's what I always do."
Today, I'm announcing I will be a candidate for Governor of Florida in the November 2010 election, and put my business experience and know-how to work restoring our economy.
This is great news for Florida Dems - this seat instantly rockets to the top of our big-state pickup lists. As such, the Swing State Project is moving this from a Safe R "Race to Watch" to Tossup.
Pat Quinn (D-inc): 29
Lisa Madigan (D): 45
Undecided: 26
(MoE: ±4.8%)
So, er, yeah - I think I was a bit too dismissive of the possibility of Lisa Madigan getting into the governor's race yesterday. With an almost ridiculous 74-13 approval rating, she has a lot of doors open before her - including not just the statehouse but also the Senate race (which James will cover in another post).
Quinn is hardly doing poorly - he gets a 56-14 job approval rating. There's a little bit of apples-to-oranges here, though - PPP tested Madigan's favorability but Quinn's job approvals. The former question can often yield better numbers. For instance, Obama has a 63-27 favorability rating, but a 61-32 nationwide job approval average.
What I don't doubt is that Madigan has an edge in the head-to-head. But with Quinn doing well, this contest bears little resemblance to the other notable race where a Dem incumbent might get a serious primary challenge, NY-Gov. There are plenty of undecideds and Madigan hasn't even declared her candidacy yet. Still, it would be foolish to discount the possibility of her getting in. Therefore, SSP is adding this seat to our Races to Watch category.
The Swing State Project is pleased to announce our first set of gubernatorial race ratings for the 2009-10 election cycle:
Likely D
Lean D
Tossup
Lean R
Likely R
MD (O'Malley)
NM (Open)
OH (Strickland)
WI (Doyle)
CA (Open)
CO (Ritter)
HI (Open)
ME (Open)
OR (Open)
MI (Open)
NV (Gibbons)
NJ (Corzine)
PA (Open)
RI (Open)
VA (Open)
AZ (Brewer)
MN (Pawlenty)
OK (Open)
TN (Open)
AL (Open)
GA (Open)
KS (Open)
SC (Open)
SD (Open)
WY (Open)
Races to Watch:
AK (Palin)
CT (Rell)
FL (Crist)
MA (Patrick)
NY (Paterson)
TX (Perry)
What follows are brief explanations of our initial ratings, including the "safe" races not listed above, in alphabetical order. DavidNYC, James L. and Crisitunity all contributed to this post - our individual contributions are noted for each entry. A permalink to our ratings is available in the right-hand sidebar and can also be found here.
Alabama - Bob Riley (OPEN) (R): Likely R
The good news for Alabama Democrats is that they'll have their first real crack at the Governor's mansion in eight years now that Bob Riley is term-limited out of the state's top job. The bad news is that they'll have to deal with a complicated primary in the meantime. Birmingham-area Rep. Artur Davis will face off with state Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks for the Democratic nod, and controversial northern Alabama state Sen. Roger Bedford is actively mulling the race. For the GOP, Bradley Byrne, the chairman of the state's two-year college system with a reform-minded reputation, appears to have the inside track for the nomination, but several other candidates (including the infamous "Ten Commandments Judge" Roy Moore and beleaguered Treasurer Kay Ivey) are also weighing bids.
Much depends on the outcome of the GOP and Dem primaries, but the Republican field has earned the benefit of the doubt in this 60% McCain state while we wait to see if either Sparks or Davis can catch fire. (J)
Alaska - Sarah Palin (R): RTW
While this seat is unlikely to fall into Democratic hands, Sarah Palin has yet to announce her election plans for 2010 - or 2012, for that matter. Even if she does take a stab at a second term, her impressive ability to alienate people could invite a primary challenge from within the AK GOP. Probably not a barn-burner, but one to keep an eye on nonetheless. (D)
Arizona - Jan Brewer (R): Lean R
Had Janet Napolitano served out her term, this seat probably would have been a pure tossup. But Napolitano's departure to head Homeland Security gives Brewer (the former Secretary of State) a couple years of incumbency to solidify her situation, and the advantage heading into 2010. (D)
Arkansas - Mike Beebe (D): Safe D
Beebe seems pretty untouchable and the Republicans have almost no bench in this state. A recent PPP poll found his approvals at 68-20, with the pollster describing those numbers as the highest they've seen for any politician nationwide in the last year. (D)
California - Arnold Schwarzenegger (OPEN) (R): Lean D
An open seat in increasingly-blue California gives the Democrats one of their top pickup opportunities. With crowded fields in both the Democratic primary (AG and ex-governor Jerry Brown, San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom, and Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa) and the Republican primary (eBay ex-CEO Meg Whitman, Insurance Commissioner Steve Poizner, and ex-Rep. Tom Campbell), it's hard to predict who faces off in November. But preliminary polling shows Dems winning comfortably in any configuration. (C)
Colorado - Bill Ritter (D): Lean D
Democrat Bill Ritter is fairly popular and trying for a second term. Nevertheless, the governor's race seems to be more interesting to the Colorado GOP than the senate seat of appointee Michael Bennet. They may be on to something; ex-Rep. Scott McInnis is the highest-profile Republican considering the race, and he actually led Ritter in a recent PPP poll. Up-and-coming state senator Josh Penry may also get in for the GOP. (C)
Connecticut - Jodi Rell (R): RTW
Like Sarah Palin, Jodi Rell hasn't formally announced if she'll seek another term. If she does run again, it's lights out for the Dems. If for some reason she bails (she's 62), the open seat would draw a lot of interest and would lean toward Team Blue. (D)
Florida - Charlie Crist (R): RTW
Barring extraordinary circumstances, if Charlie Crist runs for another term, he wins. But if he decides to run for Senate instead, Florida may host one of the most hotly-contested gubernatorial races of 2010 - especially if Democratic CFO Alex Sink runs. (J)
Georgia - Sonny Perdue (OPEN) (R): Likely R
Democrats have already drawn a pair of credible candidates for this race in Attorney General Thurbert Baker and state House Minority Leader DuBose Porter, with ex-Gov. Roy Barnes also waiting in the wings. But despite Barack Obama's impressive performance here in 2008, Democrats have been dropping like flies at the statewide level in Georgia since 2002, and anyone nominated here will have to run an impressive race in order to overcome the state's friendliness toward the GOP brand.
Republicans have a crowded primary of their own, with both Secretary of State Karen Handel and state Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine in the mix. Democrats received a minor lift here with Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle's surprise decision to seek re-election, and this race has a lot of potential to slide toward the competitive column if the Democratic primary can stay clean. (J)
Hawaii - Linda Lingle (OPEN) (R): Lean D
Lingle is term-limited and there are almost no Republicans in Hawaii, period. (The state Senate is 23-2 Dem - not a typo.) Republican Lt. Gov. James "Duke" Aiona filed paperwork almost two years ago, but who knows if he'll follow through, now that popular longtime Rep. Neil Abercrombie has gotten into the race for the Democrats. Either way, this race favors Abercrombie. (D)
Idaho - Butch Otter (R): Safe R
While Otter won his first term by a surprisingly close (for Idaho) 52-44 margin in 2006, as an incumbent, no one expects him to face a serious challenge. (D)
Illinois - Pat Quinn (D): Safe D
Thank god Blago's finally gone, huh? Any halfway credible Republicans (eg, Rep. Mark Kirk) are going to set their sights on Roland Burris's Senate seat, not the governor's mansion. There's always been a teeny bit of chatter that Attorney General Lisa Madigan might get in, but that possibility seems so remote we aren't even counting this as a Race to Watch (yet). (D)
Iowa - Chet Culver (D): Safe D
Democrat Chet Culver is expected to run for re-election, and the GOP's shelf is currently kind of bare in Iowa. However, this sleepy race got a jolt recently when Iowa's Supreme Court ruled in favor of gay marriage, and Culver said he'd honor that. That perked up the ears of nutty Rep. Steve King, who's now considering this race more strongly. It seems unlikely, though, that King, one of the House's most conservative members, would play well outside his western Iowa base. (C)
Kansas - Kathleen Sebelius (OPEN) (D): Likely R
Despite being stymied in federal races, Democrats have actually had a decently successful run in Kansas gubernatorial elections - four of the past seven governors here have been Dems. However, with Kathleen Sebelius out of the picture and no real statewide bench in her place, it's certainly shaping up to be the GOP's turn next year. This is retiring Sen. Sam Brownback's race to lose. (J)
Maine - John Baldacci (OPEN) (D): Lean D
The open Maine governor's race is one of the biggest question marks in the whole nation, but the state's Democratic proclivities and lack of an obvious GOP candidate mean good odds of a Democratic retention. When ex-Rep. Tom Allen lost the 2008 Senate race, he seemed a likely candidate in this race, but he has declined. Other possible Dems include former AG Steve Rowe, 30-something state house majority leader Hannah Pingree, or, more remotely, Rep. Mike Michaud. (C)
Maryland - Martin O'Malley (D): Likely D
Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley hasn't had the most stellar of approval ratings during his first term, but the MD GOP's bench is pathetically thin - their top hope for this race, ex-Gov. Robert Ehrlich, is the same guy whose ass O'Malley paddled in 2006. Not inspiring. (J)
Massachusetts - Deval Patrick (D): RTW
Democratic Gov. Deval Patrick has some exceptionally bad approval ratings, even for the toxic environment that all governors are currently grappling with. A March poll from SUSA had 68% of voters disapproving of his job performance. It's hard to imagine the MA GOP barfing up an acceptable nominee in this ultra-blue state, but stranger things have happened in politics - after all, Republicans won four straight gubernatorial elections here from 1990 to 2002, so this race is worth keeping an eye on. (J)
Michigan - Jennifer Granholm (OPEN) (D): Tossup
The open seat in Michigan presents a difficult retention for Democrats. Gov. Jennifer Granholm leaves office with high negatives, and Lt.Gov. John Cherry, at this point the likely Dem nominee, suffers a bit from the association with her, as seen in his mediocre poll numbers. The good news for the Dems at this point is that perhaps the most formidable GOP candidate, Oakland Co. Executive L. Brooks Patterson, has declined to run. If polarizing Rep. Peter Hoekstra boxes out AG Mike Cox and SoS Terri Lynn Land in the primary on the strength of his base in conservative western Michigan, Cherry's task becomes easier. (C)
Minnesota - Tim Pawlenty (R): Lean R
The million-dollar question in this race is whether GOP two-termer Tim Pawlenty runs for a third term, or bails in order to start prep for a 2012 presidential run. If he stays, Democrats start out in a bit of a hole; with an open seat, though, this would be very competitive. The many Dems jostling for the nomination include ex-Sen. Mark Dayton, St. Paul mayor Chris Coleman, state house speaker Margaret Anderson-Kelliher, former state house minority leader Matt Entenza, a whole slew of state senators, and maybe Minneapolis mayor R.T. Rybak. (C)
Nebraska - Dave Heineman (R): Safe R
Dave Heineman should have no trouble being re-elected governor of dark-red Nebraska. Tony Raimondo, an ex-GOP businessman who lost to Scott Kleeb in the 2008 senate primary, may carry the flag for the Democrats. (C)
Nevada - Jim Gibbons (R): Tossup
Republican Jim Gibbons may be the most vulnerable incumbent governor going into 2010, plagued by every possible type of scandal. It's possible he may not even run, and likely he wouldn't survive a primary even if he did, as recently defeated state senator Joe Heck is already in and Rep. Dean Heller may join him. On the Dem side, assembly speaker Barbara Buckley and Clark Co. Commission chair (and son of Harry) Rory Reid get the most mention. (C)
New Hampshire - John Lynch (D): Safe D
Though New Hampshire governors typically only serve three two-year terms, Lynch looks ready to run for a fourth. Lynch generated a fair bit of anger among NH Democrats after he agreed to appoint a Republican to replace Sen. Judd Gregg (back in the halcyon days when Gregg was going to kinda-sorta run a few bits of the Commerce Department). But he's has cultivated a "bipartisan" (read: wimpy) record that's been hard to assail. He looks safe on both sides. (D)
New Jersey - Jon Corzine (D): Tossup
What a mess. Incumbent Dem Jon Corzine's approval ratings have been in the toilet for quite some time, and he's trailed Republican US Attorney Chris Christie in every poll since mid-January, never pulling numbers higher than 40%. Unpopular initiatives at home (particularly a failed plan to raise turnpike tolls) have hurt him, along with the brutal economic climate. Even his own considerable wallet (Corzine's one remaining ace) has taken a hit. Calling this a tossup is probably generous to Corzine. But still, the "moderate" Christie has to make it through a June primary first, and NJ Republicans have shown in the past that they are perfectly capable (like their brethren in so many other states) of rejecting electable establishment choices in favor of wingers - just see Bret Schundler. (D)
New Mexico - Bill Richardson (OPEN) (D): Likely D
The GOP bench took a pounding here in 2008, with Democrats sweeping the state's five congressional seats and delivering a commanding margin for Barack Obama further up the ballot. In a race against a warmed-over loser like ex-Rep. Steve Pearce or controversial Land Commissioner Pat Lyons, Democrats appear to have the advantage with Lt. Gov. Diane Denish at the helm. (J)
New York - David Paterson (D): RTW
Pretty amazing. Just a couple of years after Eliot Spitzer won the governor's mansion with almost 70% of the vote, David Paterson has slipped far enough to look vulnerable to a challenge from Rudy Giuliani - very vulnerable. Fortunately, as of now, Rudy isn't running (though he's started making some odd noises). More importantly for Paterson's future, it seems that AG Andrew Cuomo could crush him with little more than an angry glare. If Cuomo jumps in, Paterson might be wise to bail altogether rather than get pounded in a primary. (D)
Ohio - Ted Strickland (D): Likely D
While early polling suggested that Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland was in surprisingly soft shape, twomore recent polls tell us that, as of now, he has very little to worry about. While Ohio's perilous economic state should always keep Ted looking in the rearview mirror, it's hard to see this fairly popular Governor get knocked off by the likes of a warmed-over loser like former Rep. John Kasich. (J)
Oklahoma - Brad Henry (OPEN) (D): Lean R
While Oklahoma may still cling to some remnants of a Democratic tradition in downballot races, it's a tradition that seems to be fading - Republicans have been capturing state legislative seats at a steady pace over the past several cycles, and won outright control of the state Senate last year. Fortunately, Democrats are aided by a strong bench; both AG Drew Edmondson and Lt. Gov. Jari Askins are seeking the office, but they'll face strong opposition from Rep. Mary Fallin (herself a former Lt. Governor) or possibly even ex-Rep. and former Corporation Commissioner J.C. Watts. This race is entirely winnable for Edmondson or Askins, but they'll have to earn it with serious elbow grease. (J)
Oregon - Ted Kulongoski (OPEN) (D): Lean D
This open seat race could really be anywhere from Tossup to Safe D, depending on who actually shows up. A race between ex-Sen. Gordon Smith and a lesser Dem, like state senate president Peter Courtney or former SoS Bill Bradbury (a rematch of the 2002 senate race), could go either way. Smith, however, is settling in on K Street, and there's a good chance a much-higher-profile Dem, like Rep. Peter DeFazio or ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber, will get involved. State senator Jason Atkinson (or maybe Rep. Greg Walden) would be the likely non-Gordo GOP nominee, but wouldn't stand much chance in November. (C)
Pennsylvania - Ed Rendell (OPEN) (D): Tossup
Democrats will be trying to break a half-century's worth of history next year in a state that traditionally has alternated between Dem and GOP governors every eight years like clockwork. The Democratic field remains fluid at this point: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato appears interested, but other names, such as Auditor General Jack Wagner and Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham are also possibilities. For the GOP, state AG Tom Corbett appears to be the front-runner, and he could be a challenging foe in the general election. Pat Meehan, a former U.S. Attorney, is in the GOP's frothy mix, and Congressman Jim Gerlach has also formed an exploratory and appears keen to make the jump. With so many unknowns, this race is nothing but a tossup. (J)
Rhode Island - Donald Carcieri (OPEN) (R): Tossup
With GOPer Don Carcieri term-limited out, an open seat in one of the most Democratic states should present an easy pickup opportunity. However, this race just got more complicated, with the likely entry of ex-Senator Lincoln Chafee as an independent. With the presumed front-runners for both parties recently opting out of the race (David Cicilline for the Dems, Steven Laffey for the GOP), the Republicans left running a nobody (state rep. Joe Trillo), and no clear Democratic front-runner, Chafee has a tangible path to victory. (C)
South Carolina - Mark Sanford (OPEN) (R): Likely R
Democrats don't really have anyone of stature who could take on this race (former education superindendant Inez Tenenbaum said no, for instance). But it's an open seat and we're more than a year-and-a-half away from election day, so we don't feel justified moving this one to Safe R quite yet. (D)
South Dakota - Mike Rounds (OPEN) (R): Likely R
With GOP Gov. Mike Rounds being unable to run for another term next year, Democrats have a shot to nab this office... that is, they would, but no one seems particularly interested in running under the Dem banner in a state that hasn't elected a Democratic governor since the '70s. One Democrat who could make a real race of it, at-large Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin, does not seem inclined to run for anything other than re-election at this point. (J)
Tennessee - Phil Bredesen (OPEN) (D): Lean R
Democrats have been slowly losing their downballot grip on Tennessee over the past decade; Republicans now have outright control of the state Senate, and are more or less tied with Dems in the House (with a lone rogue Republican thwarting outright GOP control, but that's a bedtime story for another night). With Phil Bredesen term-limited out of the governor's office, both the Dem and GOP fields are large, but they also both lack serious star-power. For the Dems, former State House Majority Leader Kim McMillan, state Sen. Roy Herron, businessman Ward Cammack and beer distributor Mike McWherter (son of former Governor Ned) are in the hunt, while Congressan Zach Wamp, Memphis DA Bill Gibbons, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam, and Lt. Gov. Ron Ramsey round out the GOP field. Based on Tennessee's recent trend, we have to give the early edge to the GOP, but it's not an insurmountable one. (J)
Texas - Rick Perry (R): RTW
If Kay Bailey Hutchison decapitates secessionist incumbent Gov. Rick Perry in the Republican primary, this race will likely be all but over. But if Perry somehow fends off her challenge, a Democrat like ex-state Rep. Tom Schieffer just may have an outside chance, although the most recent polling suggests that Dems would still start off behind the 8-ball. (J)
Vermont - Jim Douglas (R): Safe R
Republican Jim Douglas has had little trouble getting re-elected in this dark-blue state. Democrats have a solid candidate lined up in former Lt. Gov. Doug Racine, but they'll likely face the same problem as usual: third-party candidates vacuuming up votes on the left. Vermont is unique, though, in throwing the governor's race to the legislature if no candidate breaks 50%, so, as with most other years, a three-way race needs to have the 'anything can happen' caveat. (C)
Virginia - Tim Kaine (OPEN) (D): Tossup
Democrats have a couple disadvantages here: one, this race, one year after the presidential race, is always an open seat and usually seems to go the opposite direction from whoever holds the White House. Also, they have a crowded, expensive primary with ex-delegate Brian Moran, state senator Creigh Deeds, and former DNC chair Terry McAuliffe, while AG Bob McDonnell has the GOP nod to himself. The most recent poll showed Moran faring the best, narrowly leading the primary and losing by 1 to McDonnell; the primary and general (regardless of who's in it) both look to be painfully close. (C)
Wisconsin - Jim Doyle (D): Likely D
Democrat Jim Doyle hasn't formally announced that he's running for a third term, but his fundraising efforts suggest that he is. GOP Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker gets the buzz as his likeliest opponent, although everyone seems to be in a holding pattern waiting for clarification from Doyle. Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton would probably take over for the Dems if Doyle backed out. (C)
Wyoming - Dave Freudenthal (OPEN) (D): Likely R
A very odd duck indeed. Freudenthal is, as the law stands now, term-limited. However, a very similar statute which applied to state legislators was overturned a while back for failing to comply with the state constitution. Most legal observers seem to believe that the gubernatorial term limits would also crumble before a challenge. If Freudenthal successfully fights the law and runs again, this seat is probably Safe D. If not, then it's Likely R, if not Safe R - a crazy seesaw indeed. (D)
