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SSP 2010 Gubernatorial Race Ratings

SSP's Competitive Gubernatorial Race Ratings: Final 2010 Changes & Chart

by: DavidNYC

Mon Nov 01, 2010 at 12:03 PM EDT

Barring any unexpected last-minute developments, below you will find our final gubernatorial race ratings changes and a complete chart of all of our ratings. To see how much things have changed since we issued our first ratings of the cycle in April of 2009, please click here.

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Changes:

  • CT-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • ID-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • KS-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • MA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Likely D to Safe D
  • RI-Gov: Tossup to Lean Independent
  • TN-Gov: Likely R to Safe R
  • UT-Gov: Likely R to Safe R

Final Gubernatorial Race Ratings Chart:

Likely D Lean D Tossup Lean R Likely R
CA (Open)
CO (Open)
HI (Open)
MA (Patrick)
MD (O'Malley)
NH (Lynch)
CT (Open)
FL (Open)
IL (Quinn)
MN (Open)
OH (Strickland)
OR (Open)
VT (Open)
AZ (Brewer)
GA (Open)
IA (Culver)
ME (Open)
NM (Open)
PA (Open)
SC (Open)
TX (Perry)
WI (Open)
AL (Open)
MI (Open)
NV (Open)
OK (Open)
SD (Open)

Lean Independent:

     RI (Open)

Safe R:

     KS (Open)
     TN (Open)
     WY (Open)

Discuss :: (48 Comments)

SSP Updates 20 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 25, 2010 at 5:14 PM EDT

Time for our second-to-last round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings.

  • PA-Sen: Lean R to Tossup

  • CA-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • CO-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
  • MD-Gov: Tossup to Lean D

  • AZ-03: Likely R to Lean R
  • CA-03: Likely R to Lean R
  • CO-04: Tossup to Lean R
  • FL-02: Tossup to Lean R
  • FL-12: Likely R to Lean R
  • MA-06: Safe D to Likely D
  • MA-10: Lean D to Tossup
  • MS-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • NC-11: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-20: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-22: Likely D to Lean D
  • OR-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • TN-04: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-27: Safe D to Likely D
  • VA-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • WA-06: Safe D to Likely D

14 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction. If anything, we're seeing a continuation of the pattern where the Dems in some high-profile statewide races seem to have bottomed out and there's a little bounce-back, but where things seem to be keeping on worsening in the House. (Although that probably doesn't have as much to do with the overall national atmosphere continuing to get worse, as it just does with additional polling coming to light that lets us see more underserved races in sharper relief.)

Discuss :: (175 Comments)

SSP Updates 37 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Mon Oct 18, 2010 at 1:04 PM EDT

With only two weeks remaining, it's time for another round of updates to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings. With DCCC triage in full effect, giving us a clear picture of who's on the very wrong side of the House firewall, you may notice that this is the first time we've added House incumbents to the "Lean Republican" column. (In an interesting bit of symmetry, FL-24 was also the first race in 2008 where we dropped an incumbent -- Tom Feeney -- to "Lean D," also about two weeks prior to the election.)

  • DE-Sen: Lean D to Likely D
  • FL-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • OH-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • WI-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

  • IL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • ME-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • NH-Gov: Likely D to Lean D
  • SC-Gov: Likely R to Lean R

  • AR-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • AZ-07: Safe D to Tossup
  • AZ-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-20: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-24: Tossup to Lean R
  • GA-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • ID-01: Tossup to Lean D
  • IL-11: Tossup to Lean R
  • IL-17: Lean D to Tossup
  • IN-08: Lean R to Likely R
  • MA-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • MI-15: Safe D to Likely D
  • MN-08: Safe D to Likely D
  • MS-04: Likely D to Lean D
  • NC-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • NJ-12: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-22: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-06: Likely D to Lean D
  • OH-09: Likely D to Safe D
  • OH-13: Tossup to Lean D
  • OH-15: Tossup to Lean R
  • OR-04: Safe D to Likely D
  • PA-03: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-07: Lean R to Tossup
  • TX-17: Tossup to Lean R
  • WA-08: Likely R to Lean R

28 of these changes favor Republicans; 9 races (DE-Sen, 3 of the 4 gubernatorial races, and 5 House races, including the Ohio implosion duo) have moved in the Democratic direction.

Discuss :: (45 Comments)

SSP Updates 26 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Thu Sep 30, 2010 at 2:06 PM EDT

Last week, when we made a large round of changes to our Senate, Gubernatorial, and House ratings, we promised a second round after we'd ironed out some disagreements, and here it is. There are also some additions, though, that are based on late-breaking polling information, so again it's a pretty big list.

  • AK-Sen: Safe R to Tossup *
  • FL-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • IA-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • NC-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • NH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Sen-B: Safe D to Likely D
  • WV-Sen: Lean D to Tossup

  • NY-Gov: Safe D to Likely D

  • CA-20: Safe D to Likely D
  • FL-22: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-25: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • IN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • MI-01: Tossup to Lean R
  • NC-07: Likely D to Lean D
  • NJ-06: Safe D to Likely D
  • NM-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • NY-13: Likely D to Lean D
  • OH-09: Safe D to Likely D
  • OH-13: Lean D to Tossup
  • PA-10: Lean D to Tossup
  • TN-08: Tossup to Lean R
  • TX-23: Lean D to Tossup
  • WI-07: Tossup to Lean R
  • WI-08: Lean D to Tossup

25 of these changes favor Republicans; 1 race (the open seat in FL-25) has moved in the Democratic direction.

You might be wondering about the asterisk in Alaska, which even though it just shot up to "Tossup," we aren't really considering a move in the Dems' direction. That's just to remind everyone that "Tossup" doesn't necessarily reflect the Dem candidate's odds in this race; right now, the "Tossup" is more between Joe Miller and Lisa Murkowski, with Scott McAdams the wild card.

Discuss :: (69 Comments)

SSP Updates 41 Race Ratings

by: Crisitunity

Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 11:30 AM EDT

Swing State Project is rolling out another round of updates to our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts. This may seem like an alarming large number to do all at once, especially since almost all the changes are favorable to Republicans, but that's not in response to any particular event or series of events. Mostly, we're just playing catchup after having been a little slow in performing a global update since late July, and obviously the general environment deteriorated over August for Dems (although we might have seen a slight uptick in their fortunes, at least in terms of generic ballot tests and mindless Beltway CW, in the last week).

  • AZ-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe R
  • CT-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
  • IN-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • MO-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-Sen: Tossup to Lean R

  • AZ-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • CO-Gov: Lean D to Likely D
  • CT-Gov: Tossup to Lean D
  • IL-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • ME-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NH-Gov: Safe D to Likely D
  • NM-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NV-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
  • WI-Gov: Tossup to Lean R

  • AR-02: Lean R to Likely R
  • AZ-01: Lean D to Tossup
  • AZ-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • CA-47: Likely D to Lean D
  • CO-03: Likely D to Tossup
  • CO-07: Likely D to Lean D
  • CT-05: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-02: Lean D to Tossup
  • IA-01: Safe D to Likely D
  • IL-11: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-14: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-17: Likely D to Lean D
  • KY-03: Likely D to Lean D
  • LA-02: Likely D to Lean D
  • ME-01: Safe D to Likely D
  • ME-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • MI-07: Lean D to Tossup
  • MI-09: Likely D to Lean D
  • NY-29: Lean R to Likely R
  • OR-05: Likely D to Lean D
  • PA-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • PA-07: Tossup to Lean R
  • PA-08: Lean D to Tossup
  • SC-05: Lean D to Tossup
  • WA-02: Likely D to Tossup
  • WA-03: Tossup to Lean R

39 of these changes favor Republicans; 2 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

Discuss :: (65 Comments)

MI-Gov: Yet Another Bernero Blowout; SSP Moves to Likely R

by: Crisitunity

Tue Sep 21, 2010 at 3:33 PM EDT

Public Policy Polling (9/18-19, likely voters, 5/25-27 in parentheses):

Virg Bernero (D): 31 (28)
Rick Snyder (R): 52 (44)
Undecided: 16 (28)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

PPP's poll of the Michigan gubernatorial race is a pretty clear indicator this one has moved out of play for the Democrats, Virg Bernero's best efforts notwithstanding. A look at all polling shows that over the month of August, after the primary, this gradually moved from a lead for Republican Rick Snyder in the mid-teens, up to the low 20s.

Not only is there the problem of Bernero being weighed down by Jennifer Granholm's unpopularity (Bernero's at 28/43), but as PPP's Tom Jensen points out, this is one GOP primary where they actually managed to shepherd through their most electable candidate (a Bernero/Mike Cox race would have been interesting, but we won't get to find out). Snyder has 43/28 faves, including an amazing 53/17 among independents. With this race probably having already landed on the wrong end of DGA triage decisions, we're moving this race to Likely Republican (from Lean Republican).

Discuss :: (19 Comments)

MI-Gov: Snyder Flattening Bernero; SSP Moves to "Lean R"

by: Crisitunity

Mon Aug 30, 2010 at 1:24 PM EDT

EPIC-MRA for Detroit Free Press (pdf)(8/21-23, likely voters, 6/12-15 in parentheses)

Virg Bernero (D): 29 (34)
Rick Snyder (R): 51 (49)
Undecided: 20 (17)
(MoE: ±4%)

When Rick Snyder started looking, at the end, like he might win the GOP gubernatorial primary in Michigan, it raised an interesting question, given that Snyder was thoroughly dominant in pre-primary polls of the general election while the Dems were within striking distance of Peter Hoekstra and especially Mike Cox. Is it better to have a situation where, at the very worst, Michigan's governor is a relatively sane, pleasant guy (albeit, at the end of the day, a Republican), or a situation where there's a chance (though less than a 50% chance, given the nature of the year) of a Dem winning (but a greater than 50% chance of a truly odious creep being the next governor)? At any rate, once the dust settled on primary night, we were left with the former option, and now we're seeing Snyder even further dominating Dem nominee Virg Bernero in polling. (The best post-primary result for the Dems actually comes from Rasmussen.)

The favorables tell pretty much the whole story here: Bernero's "angry mayor" shtick doesn't seem to be wearing well (he's at 22/27), while Snyder's post-partisan positioning gives him a remarkable 48/12 standing. Bernero -- who over the weekend chose Southfield mayor Brenda Lawrence as his running mate, which should help a bit in terms of African-American support and presence in the Detroit area -- may improve his numbers as he gets better-known, but it may be too late for him to do much to define Snyder. With that in mind, Swing State Project is moving this race to "Lean Republican" from "Tossup."

Discuss :: (5 Comments)

CO-Gov: Hickenlooper Dominates, SSP Moves to Lean Dem

by: Crisitunity

Wed Aug 11, 2010 at 3:04 PM EDT

Public Policy Polling (pdf) (8/7-8, Colorado voters):

John Hickenlooper (D): 50
Dan Maes (R): 38
Undecided: 12

John Hickenlooper (D): 48
Dan Maes (R): 23
Tom Tancredo (C): 22
Undecided: 7
(MoE: ±3.1%)

PPP's newest look at the Colorado gubernatorial race finds Denver mayor and Dem nominee John Hickenlooper in pole position, regardless of whether ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo follows through on his kamikaze mission to run on the Constitution Party line. With the GOP having chosen paranoid bike-hating very-very-small-businessman Dan Maes as their standard bearer, there's really no path to victory for them. (Not that Scott McInnis, mortally wounded by plagiarism scandal, would likely have fared any better. Although that's purely conjecture... I assume that PPP polled Hickenlooper/McInnis when they took this sample last week, since McInnis still had a decent shot of winning the primary, but they don't release those numbers today.) (Also, note that there are no trendlines from their May poll, as the idea that they'd have to be polling based on Maes, let alone Maes and Tancredo justifiably didn't occur to them.)

The favorable numbers tell most of the story: Hickenlooper is at 50/33 (including 47/30 among indies), extremely strong for any Dem gubernatorial candidate anywhere, while Maes and Tancredo are pretty widely reviled, at 23/38 and 27/50 respectively... and bear in mind that there's probably a lot of overlap in that one-quarter of the electorate, meaning that Maes and Tancredo are going to be competing over the few crazies who can tolerate them.

OK, OK, there is one way the Republicans can salvage this race, although that got a lot slimmer with Maes having won the primary rather than McInnis (who was a loyal enough solider that he might have dropped out). They can: 1) convince Maes, who's vowed to stay in, to drop out for someone more electable, 2) get someone like Jane Norton or Josh Penry (UPDATE: or self-funding ReMax founder Dave Liniger?) to take over, and 3) hope that the presence of a more electable Republican drives the rather, um, mercurial Tom Tancredo out of the race. It's at least imaginable, and I'm sure state party chair Dick Wadhams is already working the phone lines, but it's something of a triple bank shot for the GOP to hang their hopes on. As a result, Swing State Project is moving this race from Tossup to Lean Democratic.

UPDATE: PPP's Tom Jensen kindly shared with us the Scott McInnis numbers that they tested. Hickenlooper would have beaten McInnis 52-38 in a two-way, and 48-24-22 in a three-way, barely budging the numbers.

STILL ANOTHER UPDATE: A new Politico piece from Dave Catanese -- mostly focusing on McInnis having conceded to Maes and offering his support -- quotes Maes as saying that Wadhams "pledged to back whoever wins the primary and I believe him." Maes was also later quoted as saying "that rattlesnake pledged not to bite me, and I believe him."

Discuss :: (48 Comments)

SSP Updates 40 Race Ratings

by: James L.

Fri Jul 23, 2010 at 12:25 PM EDT

We've finally gotten around to updating our House, Senate and Gubernatorial race ratings charts with the following 40 changes:

  • AR-Sen: Lean R to Likely R
  • CA-Sen: Likely D to Lean D
  • HI-Sen: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • IN-Sen: Tossup to Lean R
  • ND-Sen: Likely R to Safe R
  • WI-Sen: Races to Watch to Lean D

  • AK-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe R
  • CA-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • FL-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • GA-Gov: Lean R to Tossup
  • ID-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • KS-Gov: Safe R to Likely R
  • MD-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • ME-Gov: Lean D to Tossup
  • NM-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • NV-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • NY-Gov: Races to Watch to Safe D
  • OK-Gov: Lean R to Likely R
  • OR-Gov: Likely D to Tossup
  • PA-Gov: Tossup to Lean R
  • TN-Gov: Lean R to Likely R

  • AR-02: Tossup to Lean R
  • DE-AL: Likely D to Lean D
  • FL-02: Safe D to Lean D
  • FL-22: Likely D to Lean D
  • GA-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • IA-03: Lean D to Tossup
  • IL-17: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-03: Safe D to Likely D
  • KY-06: Likely D to Lean D
  • NC-02: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-07: Safe D to Likely D
  • NC-08: Likely D to Lean D
  • ND-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-19: Lean D to Tossup
  • NY-29: Tossup to Lean R
  • OH-16: Lean D to Tossup
  • SD-AL: Lean D to Tossup
  • TX-17: Lean D to Tossup

34 of these changes favor Republicans; 6 races have moved in the Democratic direction.

Discuss :: (127 Comments)

FL-Gov: Chiles Says He'll Run as an Independent

by: James L.

Thu Jun 03, 2010 at 1:06 PM EDT

Bud Chiles, the son of legendary Democratic ex-Gov. Lawton Chiles, says that he's taking the Charlie Crist path:

Lawton "Bud" Chiles III, the son of the late governor, announced Thursday that he plans to run for governor as an independent candidate. ...

"The two parties are not the solution," he said. "They're caught up in this high-stakes game that pits big money against big money and leaves ordinary Floridians on the sidelines."

Chiles said he made his decision after he met with Sink and she told him she plans to raise $30 million on the race. Democrats likely won't be pleased with Chiles' move, as it could set him up as a spoiler candidate who would draw votes away from Sink.

With Chiles' presence in the independent column, SSP is adjusting our rating of the Florida gubernatorial race to Lean R from Tossup. The fact of the matter is that Sink was struggling long before Chiles announced his interest in the race, and that left her with no margin for error in a general election:

It's also possible that Chiles will attract a number of Dixiecrat voters who might have otherwise pulled the lever for McCollum, or that Chiles will simply drop out of the race after a few months of reality, but it's time that we acknowledge that the playing field is tilted in the wrong direction here.

Discuss :: (7 Comments)
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