• NY-20: Jim Tedisco has moved into a 12-vote lead as the counties continue to engage in recanvassing of the lever-pull machines, which will continue next week. (Paper ballots are impounded at least until the scheduled court hearing on the 6th.)
In other news, Tedisco stepped down from his role as minority leader in the Assembly today. (That shouldn't necessarily be seen as a sign of confidence in winning the election; he was facing a no-confidence vote from his caucus.)
• SD-Sen: The 2010 South Dakota senate race isn't looking very fruitful for Dems, even in the unlikely event we run a top-tier recruit. (If Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin goes for a promotion, at this point she seems more interested in governor.) R2K polls SD for Daily Kos and finds that John Thune runs ahead of both ex-Sen. Tom Daschle, 53-40, and Herseth Sandlin, 51-39. All three have pretty good favorables; South Dakotans just seem to prefer to keep Thune where he is.
• CT-Sen: In the wake of yesterday's terrible poll, a primary challenger to Chris Dodd has already popped out of the woodwork. Roger Pearson, the former First Selectman of Greenwich, has formed an exploratory committee. He seems little-known outside (or even inside) of Greenwich, but we'll have to see if he can catch an anti-Dodd wave.
• AL-Gov: Looks like the Democratic primary for Governor is about to get pretty crowded; state Sen. Roger Bedford is now openly mulling a run, and the inside chatter appears that the controversial but powerful northern Alabama legislator is pretty serious about a bid.
• NH-Sen: Despite entreaties from the NRSC, Judd Gregg says he won't seek re-election. Apparently, he wants to devote all his time to supporting the president's agenda in the Senate. (D)
• CO-Sen: Appointed senator Michael Bennet pulled in startling fundraising numbers for the 1st quarter, raising $1.37 million. Bennet is facing a paltry field of GOPers so far (with ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez their best bet), so this may actually serve more to cause former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff to think twice about a primary challenge.
• AK-Sen: With charges dropped against Ted Stevens, Alaska GOP chair Rudy Reudrich wants a do-over on last year's election. Gov. Sarah Palin also endorsed the idea, despite her taking an anti-Stevens stand in the closing weeks of the election. However, Rep. Don Young doesn't support the idea, saying Mark Begich "will be in the Senate and will do a good job." (In fact, Young has a totally different idea: Stevens should run for governor in 2010 against Palin.) Stevens' friends in the Senate also seemed resigned to the election being over.
• RI-Gov: Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seemed to back off a bit from previous statements that he will be running for governor as an independent, saying that he will decide by May whether or not to run, once his current position (teaching at Brown) ends.
• Votes: Yesterday was the big vote in the House on the Obama budget. After a lot of public vacillation, even Joe Cao voted no, joining every other Republican. 20 Democrats voted no; it's a who's who of who's vulnerable (with a few entrenched Blue Dogs joining them): Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Donnelly, Foster, Griffith, Kosmas, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Perriello, Taylor, and Teague. The only 'nay' votes in districts won by Obama were John Barrow (who's actually been fairly cooperative so far this session), Bill Foster (usually a good guy, but a deficit hawk), and Dennis Kucinich (who assumedly voted against the budget from the left for not containing enough magic ponies). In the Senate, a few hours later, Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson were the only defections.
• NASA: Here's a guy we're glad to see land on his feet: Nick Lampson, who used to represent NASA's Houston-area facilities in TX-22, is now on the short list of potential NASA Administrators. Even Pete Olson, the guy who defeated Lampson, is advocating for Lampson.
Our statewide recruitment open thread series continues to chug along, and today we're making a stop in beautiful South Dakota, where Republican Gov. Mike Rounds is term-limited out of office in 2010. Democratic Rep. Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin has been a rumored candidate for some time, but if she decides to stay in the House, who should run for the state's top job? And who might we see line up on the Republican side of the aisle?
For the GOP, frosh Senator John Thune sounds like he's staying put in his current job, so it doesn't seem that we'll see a job swap between Rounds and Thune. While defeating Thune in 2010 doesn't seem very likely, perhaps some ambitious young Democrat could make a name for him or herself with a spirited campaign. Who might that be?
So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
Rasmussen (7/14, likely voters) (6/11 in parentheses):
Jim Slattery (D): 30 (39)
Pat Roberts (R-inc.): 57 (48)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Rasmussen (7/9, likely voters) (6/10 in parentheses):
Tim Johnson (D-inc.): 60 (60)
Joel Dykstra (R): 35 (34)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen (7/10, likely voters) (6/10 in parentheses):
Tom Harkin (D-inc.): 52 (53)
Christopher Reed (R): 36 (37)
(MoE: ±4%)
Rasmussen unleashed a torrent of midwest Senate polls yesterday and today. Kansas is the only eye-opener here. After their previous poll showed ex-Rep. Jim Slattery showing surprising strength against three-term Sen. Pat Roberts (and Roberts in the danger zone below 50%), things gravitated back toward more typical second-tier numbers this month.
Democratic Senators Johnson and Harkin both seem entirely safe. In fact, the big surprise is that Johnson, who, until New Jersey became interesting, was usually slotted in as the GOP's second-best pickup opportunity after Landrieu (more a statement on their paltry chances than on actual likelihood of flipping the seat), is safer than Harkin. (Although I'm not sure Harkin has ever broken 60% in a Senate race, so maybe it's not that surprising.)
So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
So with eight months to go, I figure it's time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent's party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know. That's because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don't follow the national races like we do. Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.
Congressional politics is defying all electoral norms these days. Usually, parties fear retirements more than anything and do as much as they can to get their representatives and senators to run again. Last week, however, Republicans breathed a small sigh of relief when Rep. Renzi announced he would not seek re-election in AZ-1. Stuck in ethical investigations, Renzi was playing right in the hands of the Democratic argument that Republicans are ethically challenged, and he could have doomed GOP chances in his district. Republicans learned the lesson of 2006, when they lost many of their House seats in heavy Republican territory because the incumbent was embroiled in scandals. (The worst were girlfriend-beating and mistress-strangling allegations made against Sweeney in NY-20 and Sherwood in PA-10). An open seat, Republicans reason, might actually be easier to defend.
The same thing is happening now: the resilience of Senator Craig, Senator Stevens of Alaska and Rep. Doolittle (CA-4) in the face of scandal are making their seats pick-up opportunies for Democrats. If any of these Republicans were to retire, Democratic chances would diminish.
Read full analysis - as well as an analysis of the South Dakota Senate race, where Republicans are also looking for a resignation to have any hope of having the seat - here, at Campaign Diaries.
Q2 Fundraising: Second quarter fundraising figures are beginning to trickle in. The Hill reports: Thad Cochran (R-MS) dropped to $275,000; Katrina Swett (D-NH) raised "about" $700,000; Jon Bruning (R-NE) took in over $720,000; Mike Ciresi (D-MN) raised over $735,000; Steve Marchand (D-NH) brought in about $100,000; Steve Novick (D-OR) took in $190,000; and, recovering Senator Tim Johnson (D-SD) neared a goal of $600,000. UNO Dems reminds us that "Bob Kerrey's still got about $400,000 cash on hand from his old Senate campaign account." Norm Coleman (R-MN) raised around $1.5 million. Larry LaRocco (D-ID) raised about $80,000.
Also: John Warner prepares us for another notoriously low fundraising quarter. (Retirement announcement on the way?)
A little over two months ago, I took a look at the state of NRSC recruiting in the one open seat (Colorado) and the twelve states with Democratic incumbents, concluding, up to that point in time, that the NRSC was 0-for-13 in recruiting so far. Keep in mind that we're approaching the dog days of summer, not a heavy recruitment period. (Note that during June-August of 2005, only five Senate candidates announced, all five of whom were Republican losers.) So where does the state of NRSC recruitment stand, and what has changed in the last two months?
Admiral John Eisold, Attending Physician of the United States Capitol said, "Subsequent to his admission to George Washington University Hospital yesterday, Senator Tim Johnson was found to have had an intracerebral bleed caused by a congenital arteriovenous malformation. He underwent successful surgery to evacuate the blood and stabilize the malformation. The Senator is recovering without complication in the critical care unit at George Washington University Hospital. It is premature to determine whether further surgery will be required or to assess any long term prognosis."
Barbara Johnson, wife of Senator Johnson, said, "The Johnson family is encouraged and optimistic. They are grateful for the prayers and good wishes of friends, supporters and South Dakotans.
"They are especially grateful for the work of the doctors and all medical personnel and GWU hospital."
Now is not the time to engage in ghoulish speculation over the consequences for Senate control, especially this close to the holidays. Let's just keep the Senator and his family in our thoughts and prayers in this trying time.
