Richard Moore (D): 40
Richard Burr (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
If you were to ask me, I'd point to Richard Burr as the Republicans' most endangered incumbent Senator in 2010. He's kind of a back-bench non-entity up for his first re-election, he made it into office in a strongly Republican year (2004) against an underwhelming opponent (Erskine Bowles), and North Carolina underwent a pretty dramatic blue shift in 2008, although that may dissipate a bit by 2010.
So it's nice to have some polling data to support my intuition. Roy Cooper, North Carolina's Attorney General who was just re-elected by a convincing margin, polls very well against Burr, losing by only two points. R2K also tests Richard Moore, the former Treasurer who lost the 2008 gubernatorial primary to then-Lt. Gov. Bev Perdue, who doesn't poll quite as well (perhaps he's still tarnished from that acrimonious primary). However, six points back from an incumbent two years out is still a fairly good place to be, too.
Burr's favorables are only 47 favorable/46 unfavorable, while Cooper's are 41/21 and Moore is at 37/27, which looks especially nice for Cooper. While media speculation tends to focus on Cooper, it's not entirely sure whether Cooper will get into the race, and there are a few other top-tier Dems seemingly mulling the race (Rep. Brad Miller comes to mind, as well as Rep. Heath Shuler). But this race easily looks to be a Tossup with Cooper in it (and probably even with Moore or Miller instead).
On national maps North Carolina is often colored red. We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976. But that might be changing.
In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican. But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.
PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling. This poll was done with 606 voters. The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.
