• NH-Sen: ARG, mateys! The New Hampshire-based pollsters find that Republican AG Kelly Ayotte is keelhauling Democratic Rep. Paul Hodes in the Senate race, although with lots of undecideds: 41-34. This is their first look at the Ayotte/Hodes matchup. (UPDATE: Oh, come on... I just noticed that ARG also has Barack Obama's NH approval at 34/57 and even Gov. John Lynch at 37/40. So take this poll with a mighty hunk o' pirate salt.) Also today, Ayotte's primary opposition is lining up. Businessman Jim Bender says he's forming an exploratory committee, and Ovide Lamontagne is setting up a testing-the-waters 527 to raise funds.
• NV-Sen: Former state GOP chair, former one-term state Senator, former co-owner of the Sahara casino, and former Miss New Jersey 1973 Sue Lowden (and former Reid donor, back in the 1980s) is officially in the race against Harry Reid. Democrats are pointing to her close ties to John Ensign, while even tradmed pundits like Chris Cillizza are left wondering if her resume is "somewhat thin" for the task of going against Reid.
• VT-Gov: Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie announced today that he will run for the Republican nomination for the open gubernatorial race in Vermont. His previous silence on the issue since Jim Douglas's retirement announcement had suggested he wasn't going to run, but now apparently he's all in. Dubie is socially conservative (at least by Vermont standards), so if he's the standard bearer (and this probably means that recent party-switching Auditor Tom Salmon, who said he wouldn't run if Dubie ran, won't run now) that may improve Dem odds at picking up the seat. Of course, Dem odds mostly turn on what the Progressive Party does.
• GA-12: Two developments in the 12th, where Rep. John Barrow is already facing two Republicans (doctor and self-proclaimed top recruit Wayne Mosely, and Thunderbolt Fire Chief Carl Smith). A third GOPer, Savannah party activist Jeanne Seaver, is also getting into the field. And on Barrow's left, former state Sen. Regina Thomas is considering another primary run. Although Blue Dog Barrow should theoretically be vulnerable to a challenge from an African-American Democrat in this almost half-black district, Thomas pulled in only 24% of the primary vote in a seemingly underfunded and underplanned challenge last year. (H/t TheUnknown285.)
• NC-11: This might be a slightly more imposing challenge to Rep. Heath Shuler than the guy who promised to serve only one term: Jeff Miller, a Hendersonville businessman who received a Presidential Citizens Medal for his work taking WWII veterans to Washington DC to see the WWII war memorial. Miller is "contemplating" the race.
• OR-05: Sad to say, it looks like we won't have Mike Erickson to make fun of again next year; the GOP found a somewhat more viable challenger to freshman Rep. Kurt Schrader. State Rep. Scott Bruun says he'll run; he says he has a "moderate middle sensibility" (which plays well in his wealthy corner of the Clackamas County suburbs, but may subject him to a primary challenge from elsewhere). Bruun ran in 1996 against Earl Blumenauer in the dark-blue 3rd and lost by a wide margin. Getting down into the weeds, his departure also opens up HD 37, the kind of suburban district that Democrats in the state legislature have been vacuuming up in the last few cycles.
• PA-04: Disregard what I said yesterday; don't quite count out state House minority whip Mike Turzai yet. Despite the entry of lawyer Keith Rothfus to the GOP field yesterday, Turzai notified the media that he's still considering a run against Rep. Jason Altmire, but is currently preoccupied by the budget stalemate in Harrisburg and will decide later.
In the last couple days, there have been several posts across the blogosphere citing what various candidates running for Congress have said on FISA and retroactive immunity for the telecoms. But so far, it's been all over the map. I'll try to corral all their statements into this diary, so you can see who the "good guys" are.
First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill. They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.
Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.
John Barrow stands out like a bit of a sore thumb: by most measures, he's one of the most conservative Democrats in the House, but unlike the other arch-Blue Dogs, he's doing it in a district that's D+2 and where the majority of the Democratic electorate is African-American. It shouldn't come as a surprise, then, that he's facing a primary challenge from the left this year, from state senator Regina Thomas.
This race hasn't been getting much attention, in terms of netroots traction and certainly not in terms of money. However, the biggest gun of all was suddenly wheeled out today: Barack Obama, who cut a radio spot in favor of John Barrow. (You can listen to the spot over at Talking Points Memo.)
Obama credits Barrow for:
...standing up to the lobbyists, and the Republicans who vote right down the line with George Bush...
Hmmm... I wonder if Obama has been paying attention to the FISA fight that's going on in the Capitol as we speak, and what side Barrow's been on with that?
The question here is: is Barrow actually feeling some heat in the primary, or is he just calling in a favor as a preemptive strike (Barrow heads Obama's voter registration efforts in Georgia, and Barrow endorsed Obama back in February)?
The decision has left some of Obama's backers in Savannah disappointed. But as Matt Stoller diagnosed, it's pretty much win-win for Obama. Cutting the ad for Barrow helps him show all the Blue Dogs that he has their back, and it may help reduce the talking out of turn by guys like Dan Boren and Tim Mahoney. If Barrow wins, he'll still be less of a thorn in Obama's side with an increased progressive majority where Blue Dogs hold less sway in the House. And if Thomas somehow pulls it out, well, that's one more progressive ally for Obama's agenda.
The House race in Georgia's 12th district just got a lot more interesting: after winning by 800-some votes in 2006, it was looking like John Barrow would get an almost-free ride against a third-tier GOP challenger with little money. However, Barrow is now getting a plausible challenge... in the primary. State Senator Regina Thomas is running against him.
