In our previous glimpses into redistricting Nevada'sCongressional Districts, we discussed what would happen if The Legislature redraws the lines based on certain politicians' future aspirations. But this time, I'm throwing a curveball at you. What happens if The Legislature can't agree on a map?
Today, the fun really begins with a glimpse of a possible court drawn map.
Today in the Texas House, the Committee Substitute to HB 600 was read a 3rd time and passed.
HB 600 redraws the State Board of Education seats.
There has been some talk about increasing the size of the SBOE. It currently has only 15 members which means the ideal population size for the new districts is 1.6 million.
Who cares about some SBOE seats? Considering that Texas is one of the biggest buyers of textbooks (when the state has the money to purchase them), and that these 15 people decide what goes in the textbooks, these 15 seats can have a national impact.
Washington voted for Obama in the 2008 presidential election by a wide margin, 57.6%-40.5% (17.1%). Therefore I've created a map where all ten congressional districts have the same Obama percentage, that is the same margin he won statewide.
All ten districts are within 0.05% Obama pecentage and 500 population of the median.
With the Census Bureau having released 2010 data for all 435 congressional districts, I started slicing 'n' dicing the data last week, looking at population change in the fastest growing and shrinking districts. Today, as promised, we're moving on to how the racial composition of the congressional districts has changed.
You might remember that I did this same project a year and a half ago based on 2008 estimated data, and that was a good template for today's work, as the lists haven't changed that much. Where the lists have changed, it seems to be more likely because of strange sample issues in 2008 (like the rapid appearance and subsequent disappearance of a big Asian population in NY-06) than rapid changes in the trend over the last two years. As with last time, the most remarkable chart is the one showing biggest declines, percentage-wise in districts' non-Hispanic white populations. (Because this is the key chart, I'm extending this list to 25 places.) As you'll no doubt notice, many of these districts also had some of the biggest moves in the Democratic direction over the years from 2000 to 2008.
District
Rep.
2000 white
2000 total
2000 %
2010 white
2010 total
2010 %
% change
2000 election
2008 election
GA-07
Woodall (R)
476,346
630,511
75.5
486,673
903,191
53.9
- 21.7
31/69
39/60
GA-13
Scott (D)
295,107
629,403
46.9
202,053
784,445
25.8
- 21.1
57/43
71/28
TX-24
Marchant (R)
415,842
651,137
63.9
368,645
792,319
46.5
- 17.3
32/68
44/55
TX-22
Olson (R)
394,651
651,657
60.6
405,645
910,877
44.5
- 16.0
33/67
41/58
FL-19
Deutch (D)
494,890
638,503
77.5
456,060
736,419
61.9
- 15.5
73/27
65/34
CA-25
McKeon (R)
363,792
638,768
57.0
352,189
844,320
41.7
- 15.2
42/56
49/48
FL-20
Wasserman Schultz (D)
426,891
639,795
66.7
358,470
691,727
51.8
- 14.9
69/31
63/36
TX-07
Culberson (R)
439,217
651,682
67.4
411,276
780,611
52.7
- 14.7
31/69
41/58
NV-03
Heck (R)
459,756
665,345
69.1
568,343
1,043,855
54.4
- 14.7
49/48
55/43
TX-10
McCaul (R)
431,992
651,523
66.3
513,811
981,367
52.4
- 13.9
34/67
44/55
IL-03
Lipinski (D)
445,179
653,292
68.1
361,581
663,381
54.5
- 13.6
58/40
64/35
CA-11
McNerney (D)
408,785
639,625
63.9
400,825
796,753
50.3
- 13.6
45/53
54/44
VA-10
Wolf (R)
495,611
643,714
77.0
554,054
869,437
63.7
- 13.3
41/56
53/46
TX-02
Poe (R)
418,476,
651,605
64.2
399,454
782,375
51.1
- 13.2
37/63
40/60
FL-08
Webster (R)
447,266
639,026
70.0
459,529
805,608
57.0
- 13.0
46/54
53/47
CA-41
Lewis (R)
405,790
639,935
63.4
404,103
797,133
50.7
- 12.7
41/56
44/54
FL-12
Ross (R)
461,239
640,096
72.1
500,066
842,199
59.4
- 12.7
45/55
49/50
CA-10
Garamendi (D)
417,008,
638,238
65.3
377,698
714,750
52.8
- 12.5
55/41
65/33
CA-22
McCarthy (R)
426,192
638,514
66.7
432,482
797,084
54.3
- 12.5
33/64
38/60
MD-05
Hoyer (D)
400,668
662,203
60.5
368,667
767,369
48.0
- 12.4
57/41
65/33
NV-01
Berkley (D)
342,987
666,442
51.5
322,853
820,134
39.4
- 12.1
56/41
64/34
CA-13
Stark (D)
244,693
638,708
38.3
174,998
665,318
26.3
- 12.0
67/30
74/24
VA-11
Connelly (D)
430,091
643,582
66.8
434,526
792,095
54.9
- 12.0
45/52
57/42
CA-03
Lungren (R)
474,940
639,374
74.3
488,421
783,317
62.4
- 11.9
41/55
49/49
FL-15
Posey (R)
497,676
639,133
77.9
539,194
813,570
66.3
- 11.6
46/54
48/51
Districts appearing in the 2010 data's top 25 that weren't present in 2008 are VA-10, TX-02, FL-08, CA-41, and NV-01; while the other four are driven mostly by Latino growth, the growth in VA-10 (in Washington DC suburbs, more and more centered on once-exurban, now-suburban Loudoun County) is more Asian. These five replace TX-05, AZ-03, TX-06, TX-03, and NJ-07.
This presents a very different picture than the districts ordered according to the actual raw number of white residents lost. That list starts with GA-13 in first, which fell from 295,107 white residents in 2000 to 202,053 in 2010. This is the southern tier of Atlanta's suburbs and exurbs, which is increasingly becoming a magnet for both Atlanta African-Americans moving outward and northern blacks moving south - in turn driving a lot of white flight, much of which seems to be rearranging itself north of Atlanta, especially in the 9th. The fast-growing 13th is unusual on this list, though; most of the remaining top 10 losers are districts where the overall population is stagnant or going down: MI-12, IL-03, PA-14, OH-10, IN-07, IL-02, CA-13, FL-20, and MO-01. As you'll see in upcoming charts, blacks are replacing whites in MI-12, Hispanics are replacing whites in IL-03 and FL-20, Asians are replacing whites in CA-13, while in PA-14, OH-10, IN-07, IL-02, and MO-01, everyone is leaving, with whites are leaving the fastest.
It's a subject of much debate (and some confusion), and it'll remain at least somewhat opaque until the Obama Department of Justice weighs in, but the question still is: Where will we see new majority-minority districts created in order to comply with the Voting Rights Act? I invite you to list any states - and especially regions of those states - where you think maj-min districts could get drawn, whether by state legislatures, by the DoJ, or in the end, by the courts. Bonus points for anyone who actually draws any proposed VRA districts.
This map is extremely ugly, but it gets the job done. The main reason for its ugliness is the VRA retrogression rule. So, in order to use white Democrats to our advantage, almost all the whites in the VRA-protected 4th and 7th districts are Republicans. Likewise, in the other districts, almost all the Democrats are white. If not for the VRA, we could have made a much more compact map with a nearly invincible 8-0 delegation.
The main goals here were:
1. Make an Obama district for Kratovil.
2. Knock out Bartlett and Harris.
3. Make almost all the other districts 60% Obama.
The latest release of the Political Data Inc. redistricting package allows us to look at the 2010 election results by contest. So, using the congressional results from last election cycle I was able to construct election results as if the Cook plan had been implemented.
An obvious caveat is that these elections never happened. Incumbents who had an easy ride in the existing lines would be fighting a different battle. But it's also true that the challengers - many of which were unimpressive and unfunded - would be cut from a different mold in a newly competitive seat.
The daily digest from the other day about the Democrats' plans for New Mexico got me thinking about creating my own New Mexico map. My goals in this map were very simple, make NM-01 more Democratic while shoring up Steve Pearce in the south (making Pearce happy with the map makes it harder for Republicans to reject it, especially given that there is a real risk that a court-drawn map makes NM-02 more Democratic, and Pearce is going to have a hard time winning a district that votes for Obama). But having said that, these caveats apply:
1. This map is probably not what a court would draw
2. It's better for Democrats than Republicans (although as I mentioned before it strengthens Steve Pearce, and that probably would at least give Pearce
3. The partisan percentages are only rough estimations, as I had to use the election data from 2008 (with 2000 population) compared to using the actual 2010 census data, as such my partisan numbers might be off somewhat (though probably not enough to make a difference)
Even with these caveats in mind, I still think there is a good chance that Democrats at least try to pass this type of map and try to get Martinez to go along with it by making Steve Pearce happy the maps below the fold:
It now covers just 3 counties instead of all or parts of 8 counties in its current form (removed from Lake, Levy, Marion, Polk and Sumter counties), and is designed as an exurban Tampa seat. It takes most of Citrus and Pasco counties (minus Port Richey and New Port Richey), plus all of Hernando County (Nugent's political base, as he's formerly the Sheriff there). Safe Republican.
FL-9 (Rep. Gus Bilirakis, R-Palm Harbor), Cyan
This district is minimally altered from its present form, except that it loses Clearwater and parts of western Pasco County. It also exchanges some Tampa suburbs with FL-11 and FL-12. Bilirakis' home base of Palm Harbor and northern Pinellas County, however, is still here. Safe Republican.
FL-10 (Rep. C.W. Bill Young, R-Indian Shores), Pink
It gains Clearwater from FL-9, and black parts of St. Peterspurg from FL-11; but loses Dunedin and parts of Palm Harbor to FL-9. Still totally within Pinellas County, and is the most competitive district in the Tampa Bay area. Lean Republican with Young, Toss-Up/Tilt Democratic in open seat scenario.
FL-11 (Rep. Kathy Castor, D-Tampa), Light Green
This is the most drastically altered district in the Tampa Bay area, as it is now confined within Hillsborough County. It loses its arms into Manatee and Pinellas counties, and gains some more conservative suburbs to the east. It has a lower black percentage but a higher Hispanic percentage than its previous form. Still plurality white (and 52% white voting age population/VAP). Castor should be fine if she survives her initial election in this district. Leans Democratic.
Central Florida
FL-8 (Rep. Daniel Webster, R-Orlando), Lavender
This district is recast to become solely within metro Orlando (Removed from Lake and Marion counties), it also loses its Osceola County portion to FL-12. However, it gained southeastern Seminole County (Altamonte Springs and Longwood etc.) and eastern Orange County from FL-24, plus bits of FL-3 and FL-7. As it subsumes most of the conservative parts of Orange County with a slice of traditionally GOP Seminole County attached to it, Webster should be fine here, although the growth of Hispanic population could make the district more interesting towards the end of the decade. Likely Republican.
FL-12 (Rep. Dennis Ross, R-Lakeland), Baby Blue
Polk County (formerly split with FL-5 and FL-15) is now entirely within this district. It loses the Hillsborough County portion to FL-9 and FL-13. It is less white and more Hispanic (about 22%) than its previous incarnation, thanks to the inclusion of parts of Kissimmee. For now, Ross should be fine, but it seems likely that this district will undergo demographic changes similar to FL-8 down the road. Likely Republican.
FL-15 (Rep. Bill Posey, R-Rockledge), Orange
This district now contains all of Brevard County (previously split with FL-24) and most of rural, less Hispanic portions of Osceola County. It is removed from staunchly GOP Indian River County and takes most of Okeechobee County that still has hints of local conservative Democratic heritage (but votes GOP in federal races). Posey should be fine here. Likely Republican.
FL-24 (Rep. Sandy Adams, R-Orlando), Deep Violet
This district now contains most of Seminole County (Oviedo and Sanford etc.) and virtually all of Volusia County, but removed from Brevard and Orange Counties. Seminole's GOP heritage should give it a GOP tilt, but a moderate Democrat from Volusia should be competitive here in neutral or Dem-friendly years. Toss Up/Tilt-Republican.
FL-27 (NEW SEAT, Sky Blue)
The Democratic votes freed up from FL-3 and FL-8 are the basis of this plurality Hispanic (about 33% of VAP) district (plurality white in VAP at about 38%, with 22% black VAP). It consists of downtown Orlando, black areas in western Orange County, Hispanic portions of east-central and southern Orange County, and the adjoining heavily Hispanic portions of Osceola county (Kissimmee and environs). Should be a perfect district for State Reps. Darren Soto or Scott Randolph, both Orlando Democrats, if they want promotion to the Congress. Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer is another solid candidate for this seat. Finally, polarizing but wealthy former Rep. Alan Grayson may also want to run here if he wants to return to Congress. A Puerto Rican Republican, however, can make this race competitive. Lean Democratic.
My partisan count for these seats are 5R, 2D, 2 swing.
Overall partisan count so far are 10R, 3D, 2 swing.
Southwest Florida, Heartland and Heartlands seats (FL-13, 14, 16 and 26) up next.
31, Male, Independent, MS-02 (Hometown FL-19)
I am as partisan a Democrat as most people on this website. As an Illinoisan, I am dismayed that my state elected five freshmen Republicans last fall but very grateful (for a whole lot of other reasons besides redistricting) that Governor Quinn just managed to hold on. Otherwise we would be looking at another "incumbent protection" map, which in a state that just elected five freshmen GOP congressmen last fall, would be tantamount to a GOP gerrymander.
Various would-be mappers such as Silverspring have proposed 14-4 maps that would make Delay and Phil Burton proud. But many of these maps go by Obama 2008 data, which is a fundamentally flawed data set to be basing districts on in my very educated opinion. On the surface maps provided by such places as usaelection.org, you can see counties like Kendall and Grundy and Stephenson and McHenry (just to name a few) that wound up in Obama's column in 2008. No seasoned Democratic politician in Illinois would ever call these counties that are Democratic by any means. Perhaps as suburban/exurban areas of McHenry and Kendall start to fill up and become more swingy, those counties might change.
This diary, however, focuses on a slightly different problem with the Obama 2008 data when compared against Kerry 2004 downstate (where it models pretty accurately - I understand the concerns people have about Cook and Dupage which may be a bit bluer now in 2011 but that trend is not noticeable anywhere outside of Chicagoland). The problem is this: several of the downstate cities that mappers such as myself and Silver Spring and others count on to create as many Democratic-leaning districts as we can, aren't really all that blue to begin with. In other cases, such as Decatur and Urbana-Champaign, they are quite blue, but turnout is a problem. Follow me across the jump where I demonstrate this using a new district I have been creating in most of my maps - a new 13th which disappears in Chicagoland and reappears as a vacant downstate cities seat.
