Or maybe they should be calling it "Keeping Blue Blue". The list:
District
Candidate
Incumbent
Obama '08
2008 (R) Margin
AR-01
Chad Causey
OPEN
38%
-
AR-02
Joyce Elliott
OPEN
44%
-
HI-01
Colleen Hanabusa
Djou
70%
-58%
IN-08
Trent Van Haaften
OPEN
47%
-30%
MI-01
Gary McDowell
OPEN
50%
-32%
MN-06
Tarryl Clark
Bachmann
45%
3%
MO-08
Tommy Sowers
Emerson
36%
45%
PA-06
Manan Trivedi
Gerlach
58%
4%
WA-03
Denny Heck
OPEN
52%
-28%
WI-07
Julie Lassa
OPEN
56%
-22%
WV-01
Mike Oliverio
OPEN
42%
-
In their first batch of Red to Blue endorsements, the DCCC only snuck in two blue seats into the program. This time, only four GOP-held seats made the cut, including the one held by freshly-minted Hawaii Rep. Charles Djou. It's interesting that the DCCC chose not to include Steve Raby (AL-05) and Matt Zeller (NY-29) just yet. Can you spot any other omissions?
An all-House digest today - and it's an hour earlier than usual! Remember, today is primary day in IN, NC & OH, so be sure to check out SSP's handy election guide.
AL-07: Attorney Terri Sewell, who is probably the candidate ideologically closest to outgoing Rep. Artur Davis, is going up with a TV ad buy in Montgomery and Birmingham which will stay up through the primary (which is a month from now). No word on the size of the buy, though.
CT-02: Republicans are courting former television news anchor Janet Peckinpaugh to run against Rep. Joe Courtney, who has luckily skated by without much in the way of opposition this cycle. Peckinpaugh says she's considering it. She was most recently seen shilling for a now-defunct mortgage company in deceptive, TV news-like ads, clearly trading on her reputation as a newsreader. The company, Lend America, shut down in December after it was placed under federal investigation.
FL-12: After screwing up the establishment's efforts to clear the GOP primary field for ex-state Rep. Dennis Ross by jumping into the race, Polk County Comm'r Randy Wilkinson is bidding adieu to the Republican Party. Instead, he's going to run as the Tea Party candidate (there's an actual Tea Party in Florida, just like the Whigs). Wilkinson has raised very little money - his FEC reports are a mess, and he seems to like filing them in hand-written form, so he doesn't even appear in their electronic database.
FL-21: What a bummer - zero Dems filed in the open 21st CD, which means that Mario Diaz-Balart will automatically inherit his brother Lincoln's seat. I can't really blame folks too much, though, as Florida has especially onerous ballot access requirements. If you don't petition on, you have to pay a filing fee, which is an insane $10,000+.
HI-01: The DCCC threw down another $70K for negative ads against Charles Djou.
ID-01, OH-15: We mentioned the other day that GOPer Steve Stivers, busy with a rematch against Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy in OH-15, said he favors repealing the 17th amendment - the one which gives citizens the right to vote for their senators (rather than having them be appointed by state legislatures). Well, after taking a lot of much-deserved heat, he's backed off that fantasy. But his would-be colleague, Vaughn Ward, is taking up the mantle. Ward, running against Rep. Walt Minnick in ID-01, offered a rationale worthy of Miss Teen South Carolina, saying "When you look at how come state's rights have been so abrogated, it's because of things like the 17th Amendment that has taken away those rights from our states." Yuh huh. Exactly.
IL-08: Just click the link and read about the greatest political implosion of the entire cycle. (Thankfully, it's the bad guys.) More here, here, and here.
KS-03: Along with Joe Garcia (see yesterday's morning digest), the DCCC added another candidate to their Red to Blue list, Stephene Moore, who is the wife of retiring Rep. Dennis Moore.
MA-10: State Rep. Jeff Perry, running for Bill Delahunt's open seat, scored an endorsement from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney. Perry, who was also previously endorsed by Sen. Scott Brown, has a primary against ex-state Treasurer Joe Malone. Malone has some baggage-related cooties, which probably explains Perry's run of good fortune.
MD-01 (PDF): Public Opinion Strategies (R) for Americans for Prosperity (R) (4/25-26, likely voters, no trendlines):
Frank Kratovil (D-inc): 36
Andy Harris (R): 39
Richard Davis (L): 6
Other: 1
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±4.9%)
Two things about this poll: First off, in contravention of appropriate practice, POS asked all kinds of axe-grindy issue questions ("Gov. O'Malley raised taxes by $1.3 billion") before getting to the horserace question. This does damage to POS's reputation as a supposedly respectable pollster. Secondly, the weird thing is that Harris switched pollsters - and his last survey, from the Tarrance Group back in November, had him up by a whopping 52-39. While it's not a proper trendline, you gotta wonder - is Harris slipping? Or is he getting snowed by his various pollsters? (Update: D'oh! Our mistake -- this poll was not done for Harris, but actually the right-wing consortium of douches known as the Americans for Prosperity.)
MI-01: Dem state Rep. Joel Sheltrown, who got into the race to replace Bart Stupak just a few weeks ago, is bowing out.
MI-09: Self-funder Gene Goodman is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Gary Peters, despite having loaned his campaign $450K. That leaves ex-state Rep. Andrew "Rocky" Raczkowski and former Oakland County GOP Chair Paul Welday in the running, both of whom have had unimpressive fundraising - and in fact, Rocky is yet another victim (albeit a more minor one) of Base Connect.
Meanwhile, we missed a Welday internal poll from a couple of weeks ago (taken by Mitchell Research & Communications), which had Peters leading by just 44-43. The poll sampled just 300 LVs, though, and according to the Hotline, was in the field at two discontiguous times. Peters' camp attacked the poll's sample composition, but Steve Mitchell says he used the same methodology as he did in September of 2008, when (according to the article), " he declared Peters was going to defeat Joe Knollenberg." Is this hindsight proving to be 20/20? Mitchell's poll from back then had the race tied.
NY-13: Global Strategy Group (D) for Mike McMahon (4/7-11, likely voters, no trendlines):
Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56
Mike Allegretti (R): 24
Undecided: 20
Mike McMahon (D-inc): 56
Mike Grimm (R): 23
Undecided: 21
(MoE: ±4.9%)
OH-09: Dem Rep. Marcy Kaptur, who is not really on anyone's radar in terms of having a competitive race, is nonetheless facing a moneybags challenger. Former Food Town CEO Rich Iott just dumped $319,000 into his campaign. Kaptur has over a million on hand, and the 9th CD voted 62% for Obama and 58% for Kerry.
PA-12: Anzalone-Liszt (D) for the DCCC (4/27-29, likely voters, no trendlines):
Mark Critz (D): 43
Tim Burns (R): 41
(MoE: ±4.9%)
TN-08: A couple of disgusting low-lifes running for TN-08, Ron Kirkland and Randy Smith, had this delightful exchange at a candidate forum:
Kirkland, of Jackson, referred to his Army training during the Vietnam War and said: "I can tell you if there were any homosexuals in that group, they were taken care of in ways I can't describe to you."
Smith, a chef from Mercer who served in the Navy during the Gulf War, said: "I definitely wouldn't want to share a shower with a homosexual. We took care of that kind of stuff, just like (Kirkland) said."
These sick bastards have serious issues.
SD-AL: Heh - GOP state Rep. Kristi Noem has a biographical spot up on the air, talking about her return to her family farm after her father's death. The only problem is that she shot the ad in Texas - which became apparent given that the backdrop (a grove of leafy green trees) is something you can't really find in North South Dakota this time of year. Reminds me of when Bob Schaffer ran an ad pretending that Alaska's Mount McKinley was actually Colorado's famous Pikes Peak while running for CO-Sen in 2008.
AR-Sen: Former President and governor of Arkansas Bill Clinton cut two radio ads on behalf of Blanche Lincoln. One of them highlights Lincoln's alleged support for Clinton's economic agenda back in the 1990s - not an issue likely to resonate, especially in today's economic climate.
FL-Sen: A Public Opinion Strategies poll for Charlie Crist, taken before he left the GOP primary, had him at 36, Marco Rubio at 28, and Kendrick Meek at 23. A McLaughlin & Associates poll (taken for "the Associated Industries of Florida," also before the switcheroo) had Crist up as well, 33C-29R-15M. Meanwhile, The Buzz takes a look at which boldfaced names showed up to Crist's first fundraiser following his political party reassignment surgery.
On the Dem side, zillionaire mortgage-shorting mogul Jeff Greene says he'll "spend whatever it takes" to win his primary against Rep. Kendrick Meek. That must be music to Joe Trippi's ears. Greene is unelectable but thanks to his monstrous bankroll, he can do a lot of harm to Democratic chances in this race. Trippi is aiding and abetting this bullshit, and will profit handsomely.
NY-Sen-B: Chris Dodd, in the midst of working on financial regulation reform, says he won't attend a Wall Street-sponsored fundraiser on behalf of Kirsten Gillibrand in NYC tonight.
UT-Sen: A poignant poll for Bob Bennett: While Republican delegates to the state convention despise him (he's in third place with just 16%), rank-and-file Republican voters like him much more (first place, 39%). In other states, the GOP would have cause for concern, since a convention process like this is clearly aimed at producing the most conservative candidate imaginable. But in Utah, it probably won't matter. Though if Bennett gets toppled, I wonder if other nervous establishment officials might consider eliminating the convention and replacing it with an ordinary primary.
MI-Gov: Thank god: Geoffrey Feiger, Jack Kevorkian's attorney and the Dems' disastrous 1998 gubernatorial nominee, says he won't run again. Now all we have to worry about is Andy Dillon.
HI-Gov, HI-01: Hawaii's legislature unexpectedly passed a civil unions bill on the last day of the session, which now goes to Gov. Linda Lingle (she has until July 6th to decide whether to sign the bill into law or veto it). Lt. Gov. Duke Aiona (R), running to succeed Lingle, wants her to veto it. Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie is strongly in favor of the bill (and gay marriage), while his Democratic primary opponent, Honolulu Mayor Mufi Hannemann, opposes gay marriage but hasn't expressed an opinion on the current bill.
This may also have repercussions in the HI-01 race, where state Sen. President Colleen Hanabusa may have pushed the bill through in an attempt to repair relations with the LGBT community after the same bill got scuttled in January. Hanabusa says she doesn't support gay marriage, though, while Democratic rival Ed Case does. Republican Charles Djou opposes the measure.
FL-05: Unsurprisingly, local Republicans are grumbling about Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite's filing-deadline handoff to Sherriff Ted Richard Nugent, including state Sen. Mike Fasano, who apparently has had his eye on this seat for some time. You have to wonder if this is the kind of thing which will taint Nugent and make him vulnerable to a primary challenge next cycle. Also among the complainers, interestingly, is state Sen. Paula Dockery, whose current district overlaps with the 5th CD. Dockery's gotten nowhere in her FL-Gov primary against AG Bill McCollum, so you have to wonder if she isn't gnashing her teeth about a lost opportunity here.
FL-25: Joe Garcia's candidacy is a rare bright spot for Dems in this otherwise putrid cycle. Now the DCCC, which lobbied heavily for him to get into the race, has given Garcia their official stamp of approval, adding him to their Red to Blue list once again.
GA-09: Dems never had a chance in the special election in this ruby red district, but you gotta figure it's almost always better to actually have a Democrat on the ballot rather than not. We had a candidate here, pastor Mike Freeman, but he dropped out a couple of weeks ago. Now, though, he says he's back in the race, but his website is offline.
IN-08: Democratic state Rep. Trent Van Haaften, running to fill Brad Ellsworth's open seat, has been talking to local teabaggers to see if they might support him. Yeah, I'm in as much disbelief as you are. But, as is always the case, there's a lot of hostility between the tea partiers and the establishment, and at least one 'bagger says they want to "teach the machine a lesson."
PA-12: Freedom's Defense Fund, an arm of the incredibly dodgy Base Connect (formerly BMW Direct) has made a $20K "independent" expenditure on behalf of Bill Russell, who is challenging Tim Burns in the GOP primary. (Recall that there's both a special election and a primary on the same day.) FDF is supposedly distinct from Base Connect, but given that they share the same office (according to TPM), the idea that their expenditures are actually "independent" is a real stretch.
More importantly, the NRCC just threw down another quarter million bucks on behalf of Burns, bringing their total spending on this race to over $725K. The DCCC has yet to respond to this latest blast.
DCCC: The DCCC is about to begin its biennial rite of splitting off its independent expenditure arm. Thanks to stupid federal laws against "co-ordination," the DCCC staffers who make spending decisions about IEs can't be in contact with the rest of the D-Trip, because those folks are in contact with individual campaigns. This is senseless. Anyhow, political director Robby Mook will head up the IE arm, and John Lapp (who once ran this shop himself) will serve as a "senior advisor." Incumbent retention director Jennifer Pihlaja will replace Mook as PD of DCCC proper (and keep her current title).
I think it's safe to say that the days of six rounds of Red to Blue waves are well behind us. The DCCC has just launched their first slate of Red to Blue candidates for the cycle. The lucky 13:
District
Candidate
Incumbent
PVI
2008 (R) Margin
CA-03
Ami Bera
Lungren
R+6
6%
CA-45
Steve Pougnet
Bono Mack
R+3
16%
DE-AL
John Carney
OPEN
D+7
23%
FL-12
Lori Edwards
OPEN
R+6
15%
IL-10
Dan Seals
OPEN
D+6
5%
KS-04
Raj Goyle
OPEN
R+14
31%
NE-02
Tom White
Terry
R+6
4%
OH-12
Paula Brooks
Tiberi
D+1
13%
PA-07
Bryan Lentz
OPEN
D+3
-19%
PA-15
John Callahan
Dent
D+2
17%
SC-02
Rob Miller
Wilson
R+9
8%
TN-08
Roy Herron
OPEN
R+6
-100%
WA-08
Suzan DelBene
Reichert
D+3
6%
Of course, the DCCC is cheating a bit here by including a pair of Dem-held open seats (TN-08 and PA-07), but I suppose they didn't feel the need to create a separate program called "Keeping Blue Blue" or somesuch. This is a bit of a dog's breakfast, but it's no secret that offense is not exactly a priority for Team Blue this year. Some will probably question the placement of Lori Edwards, who only managed to raise $35,000 in the 4th quarter. (Even Charlie Justice found a way to raise more than that!) I suppose that's just a sign of the times.
Still, the most striking thing to me is the realization that, beyond this list, it's hard to think of too many other potential Red to Blue targets that could constitute a second wave of the program. Beyond the winner of the PA-06, MN-06 and LA-02 primaries, and probably John Hulburd (AZ-03), I'm drawing a bit of a blank.
The DCCC has unveiled an unprecedented sixth wave of their Red to Blue program, adding eight new candidates to the list:
AL-03: Josh Segall
CA-50: Nick Leibham
IA-04: Becky Greenwald
LA-01: Jim Harlan
MN-06: Elwyn Tinklenberg
NJ-05: Dennis Shulman
SC-01: Linda Ketner
TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty
The committee also upgraded a number of candidates to their slate of "Emerging Races": Bill Durston (CA-03), Rob Hubler (IA-05), Bill Mitchell (FL-09), and Georgianna Oliver (OK-01).
We saw in 2006 that the later a candidate gets added to the program, the less meaningful that endorsement is. Although keep in mind that the DCCC added a fourth wave to Red to Blue on October 27, 2006 -- far too late to have any meaningful impact, and five of those candidates are serving in Congress today.
This morning, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee named Third Congressional District Candidate Mike Montagano to its Red to Blue Program. Candidates named to this program are considered to be amongst the top candidates across the country, having skillfully demonstrated that they stand for change and will represent new priorities when elected to Congress.
"Mike Montagano's appointment to the Red to Blue program is further proof that Hoosiers are tired of the economic mess we're in and are clamoring for change. He is set to unseat Mark Souder and deliver results for the Third District," said Dan Parker, Chair of the Indiana Democratic Party.
Souder, an anonymous GOP wingnut with a thin record of legislative accomplishments, gave the NRCC some heartburn in 2006, when he won by a 54-46 margin in this R+16 district -- but only after the NRCC stepped in with several hundred thousand dollars worth in attack ads against Democratic candidate Tom Hayhurst.
Democrat Mike Montagano has been up on the airwaves in this district for the past couple of months, and internal polling from a few weeks ago showed him cutting Souder's lead from 27 points to 13. Given the conservative tilt of this district, Montagano still faces an uphill battle against Souder, but this is a timely boost for the Democrat.
Earlier this week, the DCCC unveiled an unprecedented fifth wave of its highly-touted "Red to Blue" fundraising and support program for Democratic candidates running in GOP-held House districts. With the DCCC bolstering the ranks of this program with so many up and comers, it's worth asking: just how valuable is this endorsement, and what can its participants expect in terms of tangible support?
The "Red to Blue" distinction is essentially the DCCC's stamp of confidence in a local campaign. Roll Call has more:
The list started in the 2004 cycle. Democratic consultant Mark Nevins worked at the DCCC before the list became akin to "the Good Housekeeping seal of approval" for Democratic Congressional races.
"If a candidate is on the Red to Blue program, it is an easy way to identify people who the party believes have a realistic shot at winning," he said.
In other words, the distinction is an arrow drawn by the DCCC for potential donors saying: Hey, this candidate is worth your time -- and money. CT-04 candidate Jim Himes sums it up well:
"It certainly got us a lot of assistance from the DCCC," Himes said. "It certainly helped with validation and credibility, and it helped to some extent with fundraising as well."
But after seven months on the list, Himes said Red to Blue was more helpful in the beginning stages of his campaign.
"I guess I would agree that the Red to Blue program is more helpful early on than when it comes down to people making a decision about voting," he said. "At this point, my critical challenge is really telling my story in my district."
In other words, the earlier a campaign can secure this endorsement, the more valuable it is in terms of attracting national donors. (That's not to say that late-bloomers can't win - but more on that below.)
But what about attracting cash infusions from the DCCC itself in the form of independent expenditures? Looking at each of the DCCC's four waves of R2B in the 2006 cycle gives us a similar answer: the earlier that a campaign is added to the program, the more likely the committee has been to make independent expenditures in that particular race.
Let's go through each of the DCCC's Red to Blue waves in 2006, and tally up how much the DCCC spent on each race. We'll start with the first wave, and continue with the remainder below the fold. (UPDATE: As per suggestions in the comments, I've added up the NRCC's totals in these districts, too -- to give you a sense of how much of a bullseye gets painted on an R2B candidate's back.)
Somebody's feeling confident over at the DCCC: hot on the heels of yesterday's addition of NY-26 surprise primary winner Alice Kryzan to their Red to Blue program (the DCCC's fundraising stamp of approval), they've promoted eight more candidates today.
FL-08 Alan Grayson
FL-18 Annette Taddeo
KY-02 David Boswell
NC-10 Dan Johnson
NE-02 Jim Esch
OH-07 Sharen Neuhardt
PA-15 Sam Bennett
TX-07 Michael Skelly
Of these candidates, Taddeo, Boswell, Johnson, Bennett, and Skelly all got promoted from the DCCC's Emerging Races list. Grayson is the winner of the recent FL-08 primary, and Esch and Neuhardt have leapfrogged their way onto the list.
UPDATE (James): The DCCC has also added a few more candidates to its list of "Emerging Races":
IA-04: Becky Greenwald
IL-13: Scott Harper
LA-01: Jim Harlan
SC-01: Linda Ketner
TX-10: Larry Joe Doherty
Following her victory in the Democratic Primary in New York's 26th Congressional District, Alice Kryzan has immediately been added to the DCCC's Red to Blue program for open seats. Alice Kryzan earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support and skillfully showing New York's voters that she stands for change and will represent new priorities.
"Congratulations to Alice Kryzan on her primary victory," said DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen. "Alice Kryzan is a strong leader who will fight to make college and health care more affordable, and lower gas prices. Alice Kryzan will be a formidable candidate in the general election. With 55 days left to make her case to the voters of the 26th district, the Red to Blue program will give Alice the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive."
The DCCC has also released a viability memo on this race, indicating that they still consider this one very much on the big board of opportunities. I wonder if EMILY's List will decide to make a bit of penance for its embarrassing support of Nikki Tinker against Democratic Rep. Steve Cohen earlier this summer by throwing their fundraising support to Kryzan. Might be a good idea for them.
Many have asked if Jon Powers can remove himself from the Working Families line on the November ballot. The short answer? He can't. But if he endorses and campaigns for Kryzan, his votes should be minimal.
