Last Monday I launched the Obamajority to give Barack Obama a strong progressive Congress that will enact his bold agenda. I started it out with three canidates, Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. I also asked for suggestions for who to endorse next.
The canidate that received the most support by far was Tom Perriello. I had already heard about his impressive run for Congress and so I am exited to announce that Tom is the latest canidate to be added to the Obamajority. So go and give him some change for change. In this essay I take a look at Tom and his campaign to bring much needed leadership to Virgina's 5th Congressional District.
There is still a lot more work to do if we want to get Barack Obama elected. But if we want to truly change this country we need to do more then that. We need to build strong Democratic majority in the House and Senate committed to passing Obama's agenda of change. In short we need an Obamajority.
So I e-mailed a few people who had helped out with the Obamathon and came up with the idea for a fundraising drive like the Obamathon but for congressional candidates who will help build a Obamajority. Using the amazing ActBlue we have set up a fundraising page to build The New Obamajority. To start out it features three great candidates. Rick Noriega, Darcy Burner and Patrick Murphy. More will be added as time goes on (suggestions are welcome at obamathon (AT) gmail (DOT) com) but for now let me introduce you to those three great candidates who will help build an Obamajority.
My latest election contest is ready (cutting it close to the wire). I do this primarily by email, but thought I'd post here and open it up to others. Feel free to invite anyone who might be interested to enter, as long as they do so by about Noon PST Tuesday, Feb. 5.
INTRODUCTION
Finally, the Super Tuesday contest. I'll allow entries until about Noon PST Tuesday. I'm not sure things will be any more clear in 26 hours than they are now.
There's so much happening Tuesday that one could ask a bunch of different questions. Please answer at least the main contest question and the tie breakers.
Some people have expressed interest in other questions, so those will follow. They'll be treated as separate contests and are optional.
Obviously, this is just one poll, and it could be an outlier. All of us regular SSP readers know better than to jump to conclusions just yet. But to go from a 20% lead to a 2% lead with a 4.4% MOE strongly suggests something big could be going on here.
Among 600 Republicans, former Gov. Mitt Romney (at 39%) leads former Mayor Rudy Giuliani (13%) and former Sen. Fred Thompson (12%) in a statewide primary; Sen. John McCain trails at 9%, former Speaker Newt Gingrich at 7%. All other candidates receive less than five percent each.
Fred Thompson's officially in the GOP primary race for President, now, and so far, he's the clear leader in the heavily Republican South.
Alabama: Thompson 31%, Giuliani 26%, McCain 16%, Gingrich 8%, Romney 3%, Undecided 13% (ARG 7/30-8/2 MOE +/-4%) Georgia: Thompson 27%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 14%, Gingrich 13%, McCain 7%, Huckabee 3%, Brownback 2%, Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/2-8/6 MOE +/-4%)
Kentucky: Not polled. Borders Tennessee.
Louisiana: Not polled.
Mississippi: Not polled. North Carolina: Thompson 30%, Giuliani 20%, Romney 12%, McCain 7%, Other 7%, Undecided 23% (PPP (D) 8/1-8/2 MOE +/-4%) South Carolina: Rudy Giuliani 26%, Fred Thompson 21%, John McCain 12%, Mike Huckabee 9%, Mitt Romney 9%, Newt Gingrich 6%, Sam Brownback 2%, Ron Paul 2%, Undecided 12% (ARG 8/26-8/28 MOE +/-4%) - Note: 3 other polls in August (PPP, Rasmussen, Clemson U) have Thompson leading by 1-4% Tennessee: Fred Thompson 45%, Rudy Giuliani 15%, Newt Gingrich 11%, John McCain 10% (InsiderAdvantage 3/31-4/1) Texas: Fred Thompson 25%, Rudy Giuliani 21%, Mitt Romney 15%, Mike Huckabee 13%, John McCain 8%, Ron Paul 5%, Other 8%, Undecided 5% (IVR 8/29 MOE 4.1%) - Note: Past Primary Voters polled
Virginia: Only poll was in February, and Thompson wasn't even an option.
Arkansas: Only poll was in March, with Huckabee having a massive lead.
Florida, of course, is very different from the rest of the South - latest numbers there (Rasmussen) are Rudy Giuliani 30%, Fred Thompson 17%, Mitt Romney 15%, John McCain 7%, Mike Huckabee 5%.
So far, it looks like Thompson has a well-defined Dixie powerbase, comparable to Romney's popularity in the Mormon Mountain States (UT, ID, NV, and the unpolled WY) but much larger (Romney also holds IA, NH, and MI so far). Giuliani, however, still holds a massive lead in the Big Blue states (NY, CA, IL, NJ, PA) and swing states like FL, OH, MO, NM, CO, OR, WI, and WA.
The last diary I wrote concerned the general expectations of the Congressional elections, and since this will definitely have a substantial impact on the Congressional elections, I think we need to look at how specific presidential candidates affect the congressional races.
To keep this from getting too out of hand, I'm only really looking at the top candidates for each party (Democrats: Clinton, Obama, and Edwards; Republicans: Giuliani, Thompson, Romney, and McCain)
Our tracking signals indicate that Dole rarely travels to North Carolina, whereas Miller seems to be in perpetual campaign motion there. And Republicans like Dole are out of favor for sticking so close to President Bush, are they not? We thus conclude that Miller would beat Dole like a tympanic skin-a drum, I believe you call it.
Ok, now that I have your attention, to the poll. This poll (link at bottom) consisted of 800 likely voters pulled from the voter rolls.
First, lets hit on the big and simple numbers.
Bush's approval in North Carolina is 37%, with 59% Disapproval.
This number has been fairly consistent for a while. If anything this number is worse than it has been in the past.
On national maps North Carolina is often colored red. We havent voted for a Democrat for the White House since Carter in 1976. But that might be changing.
In a new poll by Public Policy Polling, when asked who they would vote for in the 2008 Presidential election, 42 percent of voters said a Republican. But, in a huge surprise, 47 percent of voters said a Democrat.
PPP has been doing a lot of tracking polls lately, and I have a large amount of respect for them and their sister company, On Point Polling. This poll was done with 606 voters. The way PPP does their sampling, these were people who will be voting in 2008.
Virtually all national polls show that pretty much any leading Democrat would wipe the floor with Mitt Romney. So this here poll from the Granite State sounds like Very Good News to me.
