On January 3, 2008, roughly 240,000 Iowans attended Democratic precinct caucuses, and at least 90,000 of them ended up in Barack Obama's corner.
However we felt about Obama during the primaries or the general election campaign, whatever we think about his substantive and symbolic actions since the election, we can all agree that he would not be sitting in the Oval Office if Iowa caucus-goers had put him in third place, or even a distant second.
I started writing this diary several times last year. I kept abandoning it because emotions were so raw on Democratic blogs that I felt the piece would only ignite a flamewar. Since more than a year has passed, I decided to try one more time.
I do not mean to start an argument or pretend that I have all the answers. I just enjoy thinking about counterfactual history (such as this or this).
After the jump I will try to figure out whether Hillary Clinton or John Edwards could have beaten Obama in Iowa.
A year ago tonight, nearly 240,000 Iowans spent a couple of hours in overcrowded rooms during the Democratic precinct caucuses.
Thousands of others came to freezing cold Iowa to knock on doors or make phone calls for their presidential candidate in late December and early January.
Share any memories you have about caucusing or volunteering in this thread.
After the jump I re-posted my account of what happened at my own caucus. I was a precinct captain for Edwards.
I do most of my writing at the Iowa progressive community blog Bleeding Heartland.
Last year at this time I was scrambling to make as many phone calls and knock on as many doors as I could before the Iowa caucuses on January 3.
This week I had a little more time to reflect on the year that just ended.
After the jump I've linked to Bleeding Heartland highlights in 2008. Most of the links relate to Iowa politics, but some also covered issues or strategy of national importance.
I only linked to a few posts about the presidential race. I'll do a review of Bleeding Heartland's 2008 presidential election coverage later this month.
Skip this diary if you think it's too early to start talking about the 2012 presidential campaign just because Barack Obama hasn't been inaugurated yet.
Overall, last night was a great night, in spite of a few blemishes. So far my predictions in the presidential and governor races are pretty close to the actual results, my Senate predictions may be depending on how the recount in Minnesota and the Georgia runoff go, and it looks like my House predictions may have been a tad optimistic. Once the dust completely settles, I will have a more detailed analysis of my predictions vs. the actual results. For the time being, enjoy my state-by-state analysis of the 2008 election below the flip.
For the second consecutive election cycle, Democrats had much to celebrate. We won the largest Presidential election mandate in 20 years, we gained seats in the Senate even though we didn't get to the filibuster-proof majority, and have won an additional 20 seats in the House, give or take a couple of close calls. Obama's likely 364 electoral vote tally easily bested by prediction of 291, while my Senate seat pickup prediction of seven now looks optimistic, but my cautious prediction of 17 House seat pickups looks pretty close.
As for my two broader-themed predictions, it was a split decision. I had guessed that "moral values" would once again shock the world by emerging as the second-most important concern of voters going to the polls yesterday. It wasn't even in the top four. On the other hand, I was laughed out of the room by numerous people when suggesting that Ralph Nader would overperform his 2004 numbers as a protest vote for alot of older Democrats who just couldn't bring themselves to vote for a black man. But I was vindicated on that one as Nader exceeded 2004 margins in just about every state where he was on the ballot. As for the exit polls, they appeared to be even worse than those of 2004. Most of the close races showed huge Obama victories in the exit polls while even many red states looked to be breathtakingly close based on erroneous exit poll data.
From the about section of the ActBlue page I've created:
Despite the self-important screechings of the traditional media, the hurt feelings and ruffled feathers of the primary season are not insurmoutable. Hillary and Bill Clinton have worked to unite the Democratic Party with their rousing convention speeches and gracious support of Obama during the delegate voting process. Now it's time to reward Hillary for being a team player by helping pay off her campaign debt.
And while we're at it, lets give Barack Obama, who was equally gracious in victory, the funds he needs to expand the map, create coattails for down-ballot races, and end the conservative governing that thinks that all social issues are due to gays, Atheists, Hollywood, and working women, that the way to solve all economic ills are tax cuts for the super rich, and that war will solve all of America's international problems.
