The Census Bureau has released its annual population estimates, so that means the usual players are in the field with their reapportionment projections. First up is Election Data Services. (You can check out their prior studies as well: 2007 | 2008.)
EDS now offers six different projection models. The column headers indicate the range of time used to calculate each projection.
State
2000-2009
2004-2009
2005-2009
2006-2009
2007-2009
2008-2009
Arizona
2
2
2
1
1
1
California
0
-1
-1
0
0
0
Florida
1
1
1
1
1
1
Georgia
1
1
1
1
1
1
Illinois
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Iowa
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Louisiana
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Massachusetts
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Michigan
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Minnesota
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Nevada
1
1
1
1
1
1
New Jersey
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
New York
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
Ohio
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
-2
Pennsylvania
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
-1
South Carolina
1
1
1
1
1
1
Texas
3
4
4
4
4
4
Utah
1
1
1
1
1
1
Washington
1
1
1
1
1
1
The biggest losers in this new batch of projections are, not too surprisingly, the sun-belt states of Arizona and Florida. Last year, Arizona was expected to gain two seats under every single projection model. Now, in a stark demonstration of how southern migration has slowed in the midst of the Great Recession, the three nearest-term projections all show it picking up just one seat. Meanwhile, Florida, which still looked to gain two seats according to longer-term projections in 2008, now grabs just one new seat under all models.
Other losers include Oregon, which was slated to grab a new district under four of five models last year - it's off the list entirely this time. North Carolina was in a much more marginal situation in 2008 (gaining a seat under two of five models), and it too drops from the list. Texas shows a teeny bit of wobble, as the longest-term projection now shows it picking up three rather than four seats, but it seems like the odds still favor four. California, on the other hand, stabilizes some more, with four of six models (including all the nearer-term ones) indicating it won't lose any seats (last time, only two of five did).
The biggest gainers? That would be Missouri, which isn't on this list at all - and for the Show Me State, that's a good thing. In 2008, all five models projected a one-seat loss, and in fact, in 2007, all three models did as well. Now EDS thinks Missouri won't lose any seats. Meanwhile, Washington state is brand-new to the list, gaining a tenth district acoss the board.
Polidata also has an analysis out. They only do one projection, based on the most recent year's numbers, which matches EDS's 2008-2009 projection in all respects. They also offer a list of which states barely hang on to their final seats and which states are oh-so-close to nabbing one more:
Rank
State
Makes/ Misses By
431
South Carolina
20,000
432
Washington
30,000
433
California
120,000
434
Texas
40,000
435
Missouri
10,000
436
Minnesota
10,000
437
Oregon
20,000
438
Arizona
50,000
439
Florida
150,000
440
North Carolina
75,000
441
Illinois
140,000
442
Ohio
130,000
443
New Jersey
110,000
444
Massachusetts
90,000
445
Louisiana
70,000
EDS has a similar chart with "last six/next six" on the final page of their PDF, with different iterations for each of their models. The bottom line is that right now, Missouri looks very lucky and Minnesota looks very unlucky. But given the small numbers involved and the fact that we're dealing with estimates rather than actuals counts, I would not be surprised at all if things changed by the time we get final numbers in from the 2010 Census.
P.S. Check out Dave's diary for some more discussion of these new studies.
The battle for redistricting and the reapportionment of House seats has been a hot topic at the Swing State Project for a while. A few days ago, we took a look at the fastest and slowest-growing House districts in the nation. It might be time to follow that up with Polidata's projections (based on '06 estimates) for the states that stand to gain and lose House seats after the 2010 Census:
State
Delegation
Change
Arizona
4R, 4D
+2
Florida
16R, 9D
+2
Georgia
7R, 6D
+1
Illinois
10D, 9R
-1
Iowa
3D, 2R
-1
Louisiana
5R, 2D
-1
Massachusetts
10D
-1
Michigan
9R, 6D
-1
Minnesota
5D, 3R
-1
Missouri
5R, 4D
-1
Nevada
2R, 1D
+1
New Jersey
7D, 6R
-1
New York
23D, 6R
-2
Ohio
11R, 7D
-2
Oregon
4D, 1R
+1
Pennsylvania
11D, 8R
-1
Texas
19R, 13D
+4
Utah
2R, 1D
+1
Washington
6D, 3R
+1
To recap, while many of the states that stand to lose seats are of a bluish hue, the net effect of these changes will be decided mostly by the Democrats' strength at the redistricting table. The redistricting process varies from state to state, but the DLCC has an extremely handy chart here detailing how it's done in all 50 states, along with the balance of power in each state legislature. (Note: this chart is not updated to reflect the Democratic gain of the Mississippi and Virginia state senates.)
With some artful redistricting, Illinois should be able to rid itself of a few GOP House incumbents, for instance. Michigan's delegation is also out of whack, but the Dems will need to reclaim the state senate in order to get a total edge in the process. Republicans have already done some amazingly twisted things with the Texas map this decade, so it'll be hard to see how they could squeeze four more pick-ups out of their new bounty. I have to imagine that one or possibly two of those new seats will be Latino-dominated.
Any other thoughts from our crack team of redistricting fans in the comments?
