• AR-Sen: Another day, another random conservative guy running for the Senate in Arkansas. Today, it's the turn for Stanley Reed, the former president of the Arkansas Farm Bureau and former president of the University of Arkansas board of trustees, who says he's considering the race for the Republican nod. (H/t CongressDaily.)
• FL-Sen: The Police Benevolent Association, friendly with Charlie Crist from his law-and-order days as Attorney General, commissioned a poll via McLaughlin & Associates that paints a slightly rosier picture of Crist's race against Marco Rubio than we've seen from several other pollsters last week. They find Crist up against Rubio 53-29, with a 67% approval.
• IA-Sen: It looks like Christie Vilsack (the former Iowa first lady, and political heavyweight in her own right) won't be challenging Chuck Grassley after all. She'd sounded receptive to the idea in the last few weeks, but today she's telling the Des Moines Register that she won't run. Lawyer and former gubernatorial candidate Roxanne Conlin had sounded close to running last week, so the ball's in Conlin's court now.
• LA-Sen: Louisiana Secretary of State Jay Dardenne is the only prominent Republican left who hasn't ruled out a challenge to David Vitter in the Republican primary, and, although he hasn't taken any steps, he's still not shutting the door on it. Last week on a radio show he confirmed that he hasn't ruled it out. While a primary between the two hasn't been polled since March (with Vitter leading 43-32), a recent poll had Dardenne overperforming Vitter against Charlie Melancon in the general.
• MA-Sen: A poll of the Democratic primary, from Western New England College Polling Institute, in the special election in Massachusetts finds that AG Martha Coakley is still in the driver's seat, but that some of her competitors are gaining ground as they get better-known. Coakley is at 37, with Boston Celtics co-owner Stephen Pagliuca at 14 (that's what spending all that money on ads will get you), Rep. Michael Capuano at 13, and City Year founder Alan Khazei at 4. The general election is shaping up to be a non-event, as Coakley beats Republican state Sen. Scott Brown 58-32 and Capuano beats him 49-33.
• WI-Sen: Russ Feingold finally has a noteworthy challenger: Terrence Wall, a Madison-area real estate developer who seems to have lots of money, although he's never been elected before and it's not clear what poltical skills he brings to the table. Wall is a frequent GOP donor, although he's also given money to his local Dem, Rep. Tammy Baldwin.
• MI-Gov: Rasmussen took a look at the Michigan governor's race, but without a clear sense of who the nominees will be, they just did a generic ballot test. Generic R leads Generic D by only a point, 37-36 -- suggesting that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, who hasn't polled well in general election matchups, is underperforming Generic D. Democratic Governor Jennifer Granholm's approval is 40/60.
• NJ-Gov: Suffolk University takes its first poll of the New Jersey governor's race, and while it would be nice to say this was the new reality, it's probably more likely an outlier: Jon Corzine leads Chris Christie 42-33, with Chris Daggett pulling in 7. Suffolk did an interesting experiment: they listed all 12 minor candidates, and they ate a bit into Daggett's numbers, pulling in a cumulative 3%. Corzine also has surprisingly high favorables, at 45/46, with Christie at 34/46. Monmouth, however, explains what might have happened with this sample (apparently a simple mistake that out-of-state pollsters often make): Suffolk weighted party ID by registration, but because of NJ's semi-open primary system, many unaffiliateds are actually partisan and should be polled as such.
Meanwhile, with most polls still pointing to a tossup, Barack Obama is back for one more rally with Corzine next weekend. Chris Christie can ill-afford one more scandal in the news, but that seems to be happening anyway, as stories about his seemingly politically-motivated hiring of the son of Christie patron and mentor Herbert Stern as an assistant US Attorney, despite Stern Jr.'s mediocre interviews.
• NY-Gov: This is the kind of courtesy call you don't really want -- the kind that says "I'm taking the job you want." According to the NY Post's Fred Dicker (so add salt according to taste), Andrew Cuomo contacted Rudy Giuliani through intermediaries to let him know that he will, in no uncertain terms, be running for Governor.
• CA-11: One more Republican sounds like he's ready to join the strangely crowded field to go up against Rep. Jerry McNerney next year. Former San Jose city councilor Larry Pegram says he'll move into the district to take on McNerney -- but it seems like he may want to do a little research before getting too committed, as he claimed that McNerney is weak because he was just swept in as part of the "Obama wave." (McNerney, of course, was first elected in 2006.)
• FL-19: The special election in the 19th is shaping up to be pretty uneventful: over the weekend, not only did outgoing Rep. Robert Wexler endorse state Sen. Peter Ted Deutch to take over for him, but so too did everyone else representing the Gold Coast: Debbie Wasserman-Schultz, Ron Klein, and Alcee Hastings.
• MI-02: A whole lot of Dutch-American conservative Republicans are jostling to take over from Rep. Peter Hoekstra in the solidly-red 2nd, and one of the field's heavy hitters made his entry official: state Sen. Wayne Kuipers. He faces former state Rep. Bill Huizenga, former NFL player Jay Riemersma, and businessman Bill Cooper.
• NY-23 (pdf): There have been rumors of private polls out there given a small lead to third-party Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman in the 23rd, and now his sponsors at the Club for Growth have openly released one. Basswood Research finds Hoffman in the lead with 31, with Democrat Bill Owens at 27 and Republican Dede Scozzafava lagging at 20, with 22 undecided (although with a huge 6% MoE, anything could be happening). That must have something to do with the DCCC's new strategy; their new negative ad is going after Hoffman, rather than Scozzafava. Also, Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty finally got off the fence and decided to throw his lot in with the movement: he endorsed Hoffman.
• NY-24: The New York Times, in a broader piece on GOP targeting of New York House Democrats, has an interesting tidbit we hadn't seen before: the GOP is trying to coax Michael Richard Hanna, the businessman who performed surprisingly well against Rep. Mike Arcuri last year, into a rematch.
• KY-St. Sen.: We're moving one step closer to another vacant seat and special election in Kentucky's Senate (which is controlled 21-17 by Republicans right now). Republican Dan Kelly was nominated for a state circuit court position, and he just needs Gov. Steve Beshear's approval to get the job. Competitors are already lining up for the special, including Republican state Rep. Jimmy Higdon and Democratic former state Rep. Jodie Haydon. (In case you were wondering if Kentucky, which votes for statewide offices in odd-numbered years, is having legislative elections next week, the answer is no; state legislators are still elected in even-numbered years.)
• VA-St. House: One more good piece in the diaries breaking down the individual races in Virginia's House of Delegates into Tossup, Lean, and Likely, thanks to our Johnny Longtorso. One particularly interesting race is the 51st District in exurban Prince William County, where Republican Rich Anderson, challenging Dem incumbent Paul Nichols in a very competitive race, may face criminal charges for giving out Nichols' Social Security number on a mailer to over 15,000 area residents.
• ME-Init: Another poll from Pan Atlantic SMS of Question 1 in Maine on gay marriage. They find 42 yes and 53 no (with "no" being a vote in favor of continuing gay marriage), not much changed from their September poll (43-52) but the most optimistic numbers we've seen yet here.
• Mayors: In New York City, Quinnipiac finds incumbent Michael Bloomberg (the $85 million man) with a sizable edge against Democratic comptroller William Thompson, leading 53-35 with a lead in every borough. (Not much change from 52-36 a month ago.) In what looks to be the first poll of the Atlanta mayoral race, SurveyUSA finds city councilor Mary Norwood with a big lead, although not quite enough to avoid a runoff with the 2nd place finisher. Norwood is at 46%, followed by state Sen. Kasim Reed at 26% and city councilor Lisa Borders at 17%. Norwood leads 6:1 among whites, independents, and Republicans; Reed leads among African-Americans. Also worth a read is a piece from our own diaries about major (and minor) mayoral races from elections09, which gets into the weeds on some tight races not on anybody's national radar screen (with Vancouver, WA and Stamford, CT as particularly interesting examples).
EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV/WOOD-TV (10/11-15, "active voters," 5/18-21 in parentheses)
Primaries:
John Cherry (D): 33 (14)
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 5 (2)
George Perles (D): 3 (2)
Don Williamson (D): 3 (1)
John Freeman (D): 2 (NA)
Undecided: 54 (26)
Peter Hoekstra (R): 29 (27)
Mike Cox (R): 28 (26)
Mike Bouchard (R): 14 (NA)
Rick Snyder (R): 3 (NA)
Tom George (R): 2 (1)
Undecided: 24 (25)
(MoE: ±4%)
General:
John Cherry (D): 33 (36)
Peter Hoekstra (R): 40 (33)
John Cherry (D): 30 (36)
Mike Cox (R): 45 (35)
John Cherry (D): 30
Mike Bouchard (R): 39
John Cherry (D): 34
Rick Snyder (R): 32
(MoE: ±4%)
We've already used the joke "Cherry's Numbers Are the Pits," so I won't bother you with that one again, but the Michigan gubernatorial race is certainly not going in the right direction for the Democrats. The problem right now seems to be that Lt. Gov. John Cherry, front-runner in the Democratic field, is inextricably linked to current Gov. Jennifer Granholm's administration, which is quite unpopular right now as Michigan suffers from what are in all likelihood the worst economic conditions of any of the 50 states. There seems to have been a lot of decline since the last EPIC-MRA poll in May; while Cherry squeaked past Rep. Peter Hoekstra and AG Mike Cox then, he's losing by double-digits today. (He does, however, beat businessman Rick Snyder -- probably the most moderate option among the Republicans, but also little-known statewide.)
The primary fields have gotten dramatically reshaped since May; on the GOP side, EPIC-MRA previously also included SoS Terri Lynn Land (who has since dropped out) but added Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard. And on the Democratic side, they previously included Sen. Debbie Stabenow (bizarre, since she has never expressed interest in the race), Wayne Co. Exec Robert Ficano (ditto), and state House Speaker Andy Dillon (who seems to have simply faded into obscurity) -- which would explain why Cherry (and "undecided") are performing much better in the Dem primary now. Still, with 54% of primary voters undecided, and losing ground in the general, you've gotta start wondering if Cherry is the best we can do here.
Here's a pretty big surprise coming out of Michigan: Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land is term-limited out of her job in 2010 and has had an exploratory committee open for the 2010 open gubernatorial race (and has been considered a top-tier contender for that race for many years). She scheduled two news conferences for today, leading most people to assume she'd be announcing her bid -- but instead announced that:
the Secretary of State has taken herself out of the race and is backing Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard, who announced his candidacy last month.
This would initially appear to give a big boost to Bouchard, who you may remember from his decisive 2006 loss to Debbie Stabenow. However, before her terms as SoS, Land was county clerk in Kent County in Michigan's conservative west. She shares this turf with Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who now has the west to himself. Meanwhile, AG Mike Cox and Bouchard are both based in the more moderate Detroit suburbs, where they're left to battle it out. Hoekstra has to be viewing this as good news... and with a recent poll showing likely Democratic nominee Lt. Gov. John Cherry beating Hoekstra by 3 but losing to Land by 1, Democrats have to be feeling good too. (Discussion underway in pbratt's diary.)
EPIC-MRA for Detroit News/WXYZ-TV (5/18-21, "people")
Primaries:
Debbie Stabenow (D): 49
John Cherry (D): 14
Robert Ficano (D): 5
Alma Wheeler Smith (D): 2
George Perles (D): 2
Andy Dillon (D): 1
Don Williamson (D): 1
Undecided: 26
Peter Hoekstra (R): 27
Mike Cox (R): 26
Terri Lynn Land (R): 19
David Brandon (R): 2
Tom George (R): 1
Undecided: 25
(MoE: ±4.9%)
General:
John Cherry (D): 36
Peter Hoekstra (R): 33
John Cherry (D): 36
Mike Cox (R): 35
John Cherry (D): 34
Terri Lynn Land (R): 35
(MoE: ±4%)
The Michigan Governor's race still looks to be our toughest blue-state gubernatorial retention in 2010. Lt. Gov. John Cherry has the inside track toward the Dem nomination, but he's polling about even with the three likely GOPers. Probably our best shot here would be for polarizing Rep. Peter Hoekstra to emerge battered from a Republican primary over AG Mike Cox and SoS Terri Lynn Land (by consolidating his base in the conservative western part of the state), letting Cherry narrowly win the general... which is what this poll forecasts happening.
The weirdest thing about this poll is undoubtedly the presence of Sen. Debbie Stabenow. I haven't heard about her having an iota of interest in jumping into the Governor's race (although she could do so without danger, as she isn't up for re-election until 2012). Interestingly, she would crush in both the primary and general if she did have any interest in heading back to Michigan. (In hypothetical generals, Stabenow beats Hoekstra 44-35, Cox 43-35, and Land 44-35. Good news, actually, because those are the same numbers the GOPers put up against Cherry, indicating that the GOP may have a ceiling and the electorate has a Dem lean, but that people who haven't heard of Cherry yet are reluctant to commit to him.)
Robert Ficano, who polls third in the Dem primary, is the Wayne County Executive; he too hasn't taken any visible steps toward running. (The poll also looks at general matchups with Ficano; he loses to Hoekstra 35-34, Cox 37-30, and Land 37-30.) Andy Dillon is the term-limited state House Speaker, who has been visibly interested in the Governor's race; however maybe he'll take a look at his 1% share and think about moving over to the MI-11 race (which he's already declined, but, against vulnerable Rep. Thad McCotter, seems likelier to have a happy ending for him).
Results for Cherry are a little better than a poll conducted for Inside Michigan Politics in early March, which had Cherry trailing Cox 41-34 and Land 39-34 (Cherry/Hoekstra wasn't polled). This earlier poll had Oakland County Exec L. Brooks Patterson winning the GOP primary over Cox, Hoekstra, and Land, 22-17-15-12, but Patterson has since said he won't run. Maybe Cherry's visibility has increased in the last few months, but mostly that just seems to be a difference in the composition of the two samples.
U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra kicked off his campaign for governor in Detroit this morning. ....
Hoekstra was first elected to Congress in 1992 and rose through the ranks to become chairman of the powerful House Intelligence Committee, a position he held until Democrats won control of the House of Representatives in 2006. He remains the ranking minority member of the committee.
Before winning elective office, Hoekstra was an executive at Herman Miller Furniture Co. in Zeeland.
He joins a crowded field of potential Republican candidates for the state's top job, including: state Sen. Tom George of Texas Township, Attorney General Mike Cox, Secretary of State Terri Lynn Land.
Hoekstra had said several months ago that he wouldn't seek a tenth term in the House. The question then was whether he'd retire or look to move up, and now we have our answer. Hoekstra's main competition right now looks to be AG Mike Cox. The primary is a long way off - August 3, 2010.
Open seat fans also have a legitimate reason to be intriged by MI-02. Swing State Project's analysis shows that after supporting Republican presidential candidates by twenty points for two cycles in a row, Obama surged here, holding McCain to a narrow 51-48 win. As James noted previously, the fact that McCain dissed Michigan late in the game undoubtedly killed his numbers statewide, so this may be a high-water mark for Dems. Nonetheless, there may be some promise here. Any thoughts on potential candidates?
L. Brooks Patterson (R): 22
Peter Hoekstra (R): 17
Mike Cox (R): 15
Terri Lynn Land (R): 12
(MoE: ±4.1%)
People in the know about Michigan politics have been warning us that, despite its blue-state status, we're going to face an uphill fight to retain the open gubernatorial seat in Michigan. Much of the public ire with Michigan's dire economic straits seems to be aimed toward Jennifer Granholm's administration, and with her #2, Lt. Gov. John Cherry, as the Dems' likeliest nominee, that's a problem for us. With this poll commissioned by local politics newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, we have some confirmation, as all three head-to-heads show Cherry trailing Republican rivals.
While Cherry fares the worst against Attorney General Mike Cox (cue Beavis & Butthead-style laughter here...), Cherry also loses by narrower margins to SoS Terri Lynn Land and Oakland County Executive L. Brooks Patterson. Cox, however, isn't in a good position in the primary; Patterson, with high name rec in the Detroit suburbs, beats him, as does retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra, who has a strong base in the Grand Rapids area. (No Cherry/Hoekstra matchup was released.)
The writeup in the Detroit Free Press also alludes to Democratic primary results, although it doesn't give specific numbers. Cherry easily dispatches Daniel Mulhern (Granholm's husband, who's said he isn't running), ex-Michigan St. football coach George Perles, and state House Speaker Andy Dillon. Dillon is term-limited out of the House in 2010 and is apparently interested enough in the governor's race to forego a challenge in MI-11 to the vulnerable Thad McCotter; I'd be very interested to see how Dillon polls in head-to-heads against the leading GOPers, to see if the problems are specific to Cherry or if there's a bigger problem with the Democratic brand in Michigan right now.
