The word in New Mexico circles is that despite his announcement, Congressman Udall is still being urged to run for the Senate. If "Udall for Senate" gives you the same kind butterflies in your stomach as it gives me, please help urge him to run! Send Tom Udall the message that we want him as our next Senator by sending a small, $5 contribution to his campaign.
It seems like whoever you talk to in Washington and most importantly, in New Mexico, people agree that Tom Udall is our hero candidate. Obviously he needs to step up and run.
A move to run after announcing otherwise is not without precedent and you don't hear anyone complaining about the last guy who did it. In August of 2005, now Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown announced that he would not run against former-Senator Mike DeWine in Ohio. For the next two months, the grassroots urged him to reconsider his decision for the people of Ohio and for people across the nation. He eventually reversed his decision and went on to win the seat for Democrats, helping to give us control of the US Senate.
We need to send Congressman Udall that same message (here's another chance to donate that $5!). The people of New Mexico want him to run and people in Washington and across the United States hope that he'll help us to increase our majority in the Senate by turning Senator Domenici's seat blue!
Tom Udall is the best choice for New Mexico AND for the country as we work towards building the Democratic majority in the Senate. I already wrote a bit about his background, including a bit about his family and his cash on hand that he could use for his Senate campaign committee. But there are other, better reasons for Tom Udall to be the next Senator from New Mexico.
For one, he's a good progressive. He's pro-choice, an environmentalist, a defender of civil liberties and civil rights, and one of the great supporters for veterans in the Democratic Party today. In fact, during his time as a minority member in the Congress, he took the junior seat on the Veteran's Committee in addition to his regular committee portfolio.
In the first polling out about the race in New Mexico, Tom Udall beats both Republicans by 18 points! Governor Richardson is the only other New Mexican who polls as high. Representative Udall could afford to leave his safe seat in the north with these kinds of numbers, run hard for the Senate, and win. He could leave his House seat knowing that another Democrat (and there are many) could easily keep it in Dem control.
In terms of numbers, this just makes sense. Congresswoman Heather Wilson (R) and Congressman Steve Pearce (R) are the two leading contenders to replace Senator Domenici on the Republican side (Pearce has formed an exploratory committee and will announce his intentions in the next two weeks, while Wilson declared less than 24 hours after Domenici's announcement and after weeks of traveling statewide). The numbers tell us that both beat current Dem candidates Chavez and Wiviott by small-to-wide margins. The following summary of the numbers comes from the Democracy For New Mexico blog.
Starting with Republican candidate Steven Pearce, Congressman from New Mexico's 2nd District: * Pearce loses to Congressman Tom Udall by 18 points * loses to Governor Bill Richardson by 24 points * defeats Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez by 21 points * defeats former Attorney General Patricia Madrid by 16 points * and defeats businessman Don Wiviott by 35 points. Now to Republican candidate Heather Wilson, Congresswoman from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District: * Wilson loses to Udall by 18 points (same as Pearce), * loses to Richardson by 27 points (Wilson runs 3 points weaker than Pearce), * defeats Chavez by 4 points (Wilson runs 17 points weaker than Pearce), * effectively ties Patricia Madrid (Wilson runs 15 points weaker than Pearce) * and defeats Wiviott by 17 points (Wilson runs 18 points weaker than Pearce).
Someone needs to put these numbers on the Congressman's desk and tell him that it's time to run.
We know that Udall's numbers aren't fluff, either. He's run statewide before and won as Attorney General, twice! Since then, Udall has remained a proud defender of the Constitution and our rights. He was one of the original 66 Members of Congress to stand up with courage against the PATRIOT Act that was first railroaded through the House, forcing most Representatives to vote on a bill they had never read.
This is the kind of leadership and courage we should demand from our leaders and a primary reason why New Mexicans are asking Tom Udall to run for Senate.
Congressman Udall's voting record is solidly progressive. Help in the movement to Draft Tom Udall for Senate today by sending him $5 and the message that he's our best hope!
In an ABQJournalopinion piece by Michael Coleman, Sen. Pete Domenici is compared to someone he would rather have no connection to -- Sen. Larry Craig from Idaho.
Craig, as you may know, is the Idaho Republican arrested on June 11 by an airport police officer and pleaded guilty to misdemeanor disorderly conduct. Craig, according to police, used "a signal used by persons wishing to engage in lewd conduct" while in a men's airport bathroom according to the police report. You can read the full police report here. Craig has since said he would like to rescind his guilty plea.
It seems that Pete Domenici and Heather Wilson are now both in trouble from both sides of the political spectrum. While the two toers-of-the-GOP-party-line generally don't expect support from the progressive Dems, when the hawkish Republicans go after them... then they know they're in trouble.
And this group is spending some serious cash on the two New Mexico Republicans. According to a list e-mailed from Americans United for Change, reprinted at Daily Kos, the group is spending over $250,000 on these ads targeting Wilson and Domenici. This is the fourth-most being spent in a single area, remarkable considering two of the other targets are in Philadelphia, PA and Washington DC -- much more expensive media markets. This group really is going after Domenici and Wilson.
I won't get into the problems with the right-wing ad itself -- I'll let Americans United for Change do that, in a video you can see below the fold, but instead discuss its effects on Domenici and Wilson.
(Having a former US Attorney take on Pete Domenici would be almost perfect. But read on to learn more about what sort of candidate John Kelly might make. - promoted by DavidNYC)
A former United States attorney is considering a run against Senator Pete Domenici. John Kelly, the US Attorney for New Mexico under Bill Clinton, reportedly thinks he should be the Democrat to take on Domenici.
One Democrat who isn't running against Wilson is former U.S. Attorney John Kelly. He said Wednesday he's considering taking on U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici instead.
"I do feel obligated to consider it and am going to look seriously at it," he said.
Perhaps it is fitting the article was about Heather Wilson's troubles since Wilson is the other New Mexican member of Congress tainted by the David Iglesias scandal. And perhaps it is fitting that a former USA would go after Domenici, who contributed to the downfall of David Iglesias, the last USA in New Mexico.
Kelly wrote an editorial in March in the ABQJournal denouncing Domenici's actions.
In early February, the Guru offered his first Retirement Watch rundown, and in mid-March there was the first Retirement Watch Update. Allow the Guru to present you with the brand new May Retirement Watch Update.
Key Statistic: Courtesy of Swing State Project, since the 1988 election cycle, mid-term election cycles have seen an average of 4.8 Senate retirements per cycle, while Presidential election cycles have seen an average of 7.7 Senate retirements per cycle. With only Colorado's Wayne Allard officially out, statistical trends suggest that we should see a few more retirement announcements.
New Mexico Dems have been waiting for someone to step up to the plate to take on Sen. Pete Domenici. Tom Udall's name has been bandied about, as has Rick Homans. But a blast from the recent past may beat them all to the punch -- Patricia Madrid.
According to an inside source, the former New Mexico Attorney General is considering a run against Sen. Pete Domenici. In her last run for office, she fell to Rep. Heather Wilson by less than 900 votes.
So why would Madrid be considering a run for Senate? There are actually some very real reasons why it would be worthwhile.
Maybe Tom Udall isn't going to be running for Senate against Pete Domenici in 2008. What makes me say that is his latest campaign fundraising numbers. Sure, the numbers look good. Udall has $712,941 cash on hand after the end of the first quarter.
But when you begin the quarter with $712,873, it's not all that impressive. In other words, he netted something under $100 for his fundraising efforts. Udall raised just $1600 in the first quarter. I could go on and on on the numbers (the number of "other income" which includes interest and dividends is nearly four times that of the money he raised), but I think you get the point.
The Albuquerque Tribune just came out with an article on Pajamas Pete Domenici's Q1 fundraising. Domenici raised a seemingly meager $393,000 for Q1. It looks meager given that Domenici is a long-time incumbent and former Chair of a powerful committee. The article elucidates:
Domenici's total is dwarfed by what was spent on most Senate races in 2006 but is comparable to what Sen. Jeff Bingaman, a Silver City Democrat, raised and spent on the way to an easy victory over Allen McCulloch of Farmington last year.
Bingaman raised about $230,000 in the first quarter of 2005 and had $556,000 in cash on hand at the end of the period. He wound up spending about $3.3 million. Domenici spent about $4.6 million on his last re-election race in 2002.
Bingaman spent $3.3 million to beat his opponent 71-29 last year. In 2002, Domenici spent $4.6 million and only beat his opponent 65-35, a drubbing to be sure, but a smaller margin than Bingaman's victory and at a 40% higher price.
So, Domenici is on a correct fundraising pace, if he just wants to raise the same $3 to $5 million for a cake-walk run.
During the nearly two years that SurveyUSA has tracked Senatorial approval ratings, Republican Sen. Pete Domenici of New Mexico has never seen approval ratings below 60%. Well Pete, that era is now over:
Granted, a 57/35 approve/disapprove rating is by no means catastrophic, but as the U.S. Attorney scandal continues to bubble, I wouldn't expect to see his numbers improve any time soon, either. And if an ethics complaint against Pajama Pete manages to materialize in the Senate over his role in the David Iglesias scandal, expect to see even further damage to his "Saintly" image in the state.
About a month and a half ago, the Guru offered you his first Retirement Watch post, looking at any GOP Senators who might be considering retirement over a re-election bid for any number of reasons. Here is the Guru's first update of the Retirement Watch:
UP New Mexico's Pete Domenici: Pajamas Pete was on the RW because of his advanced age (he is turning 75 this May) and questionable mental state. Over the last several weeks, his role in the U.S. Attorney firing scandal has come to light, as well as his subsequent hiring of lawyers as a result. Ethics complaints have been filed against him. It is unclear what ramifications await Domenici, but it does suggest that this previously strong possibility for re-election has undermined his own chances with one very inappropriate phone call. Should he retire (or otherwise not seek re-election), GOP Rep. Heather Wilson would have been the likely front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace him, but she apparently made an inappropriate phone call similar to Domenici's, leaving super-conservative Rep. Steve Pearce as the go-to Republican, a man who is likely too conservative to win statewide in New Mexico. So the NM-GOP's likely choices are a politically damaged Domenici or a too-conservative-for-statewide Steve Pearce. If a prominent Democrat steps up early to challenge Domenici, it may put enough pressure on him to opt for retirement.
UP Idaho's Larry Craig: Since the last RW, voices both liberal and conservative have suggested that Larry Craig is not long for the Senate. Whether the ID-GOP is trying to urge him out or are prepping a primary challenger is unclear, but the rumors are growing.
UP Virginia's John Warner: Before the last RW, J. Warner had publicly gone back-and-forth as to where he was leaning between retirement and a re-election bid. It has appeared that J. Warner would take another term if he didn't have a tough challenge for it. He has even planned a little bit of fundraising. However, former Governor Mark Warner may be more interested in a 2008 Senate bid than previously thought. Also, former Senator George "Macaca" Allen has held a meeting to gauge support for a 2008 Senate bid should J. Warner retire. One wouldn't think that Allen would hold such a meeting unless he had info that the likelihood of a J. Warner retirement was stronger than the 50-50 conventional wisdom.
EVEN Nebraska's Chuck Hagel: Before the last RW post, questions existed as to whether Hagel would run for President, run for Senate re-election, run for both, or retire from politics. Then, Hagel held a big press conference and answered none of those questions. He did say that "he would actively raise money for a Senate re-election bid in 2008." It did come out that Hagel, before he served two terms in the Senate, made it crystal clear that he felt twelve years was enough and that he supported term limits. Does he still support such limits? (Probably not.) However, GOP state attorney general Jon Bruning has already begun putting together an exploratory committee for a Senate bid. Is he just getting a head start in case of a Hagel Senate retirement, or does he enjoy inside info?
EVEN Mississippi's Thad Cochran: Cochran had been publicly undecided on a re-election bid, holding off on a decision until late 2007, as of the last RW. Since then, he has planned some moderately aggressive fundraising, but he has also moved even further back his declared deadline for announcing his 2008 intentions and stated that being in the minority party would make him "less inclined" to run.
DOWN North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole: Her age, health issues, and failure as NRSC Chair had led many to consider her a strong possibility for retirement. Nevertheless, she says she is running for re-election and has begun aggressive fundraising. Also, while polling for her has been pretty weak for her overall, they are polling her as the expected Republican in the race, indicating that the media outlets expect her to run again as well.
We know that the numbers favor Senate Democrats in 2008. 21 GOP vs. 12 Democratic Senators up for re-election gives the GOP a great deal more territory to have to protect. And, as hard as it can be to hold incumbent seats, it's even harder to retain open seats. This again favors the Democrats, as there are many more Republican Senators on "Retirement Watch."
DSCC Chair Chuck Schumer has said that he has gotten assurances from every Democratic Senator that they are all running for re-election, except for Iowa's Tom Harkin, who has since demonstrated public steps toward a re-election bid.
Aside from Harkin, I'm not sold that New Jersey's Frank Lautenberg is definitely going to run for re-election, which might not be a bad thing given Lautenberg's low approval ratings and NJ's wealth of Democratic Congresspeople waiting for a promotion, not to mention that Lautenberg is the Democrats' oldest 2008 incumbent by just over a decade.
Also, Delaware's Joe Biden is looking at the White House, but is hardly a favorite to win the nomination in 2008, meaning that he will likely opt for Senate re-election and have plenty of time to do so.
This leaves only the recovering Tim Johnson of South Dakota as a significant question mark, and even his camp is showing signs, from staffing to fundraising, that a re-election bid could still be on the horizon, health-permitting.
Meanwhile, more than half of the GOP's 21 incumbents are on the retirement watch spectrum. After spending much of the last decade-plus in the majority party, many of these Senators will find that spending 2007 in the minority will make for a less pleasant work environment. And with many states, like Colorado and Virginia, on a blue-trend, some Republican Senators may opt for retirement rather than risking ending their career on a loss. Beyond that, many Republican Senators are just really old.
2) Maine's Susan Collins: Is under a self-imposed term-limit-pledge, but is planning a re-election bid. However, if Tom Allen gets in the race and Collins' broken promise becomes a major issue, with polling going strongly Allen's way, it's not inconceivable that Collins would step aside
9) North Carolina's Elizabeth Dole: her staff has claimed that she's planning on re-election, but she has not made any definitive comments; meanwhile, many factors, including her age, her horrible job as NRSC Chair, and her recent hip replacement, suggest that retirement may be a strong possibility - also, polling has the reluctant Mike Easley ahead of Dole; if he got in, maybe she'd prefer to avoid a tough re-election campaign
10) Texas' John Cornyn: While he is very clearing planning a re-election bid, he is also one of Bush's top choices (if not Bush's first choice) for a Supreme Court opening should there be one more before the end of Bush's term - granted, I'd rather have Cornyn in the Senate running for re-election than enjoying a lifetime seat on the Supreme Court
11) Oklahoma's Jim Inhofe: Rumors exist that he is considering retirement, though this is a rare situation (perhaps akin to NJ's Lautenberg) where the non-incumbent party might have an easier time beating the incumbent than a replacement (say former Governor Frank Keating)
12) Idaho's Larry Craig: Another situation of more rumors circulating while Craig waits on a formal public announcement one way or the other
Running (or most likely running) for re-election: Saxby Chambliss (GA), Norm Coleman (MN), Mike Enzi (WY), Lindsey Graham (SC), Mitch McConnell (KY), Pat Roberts (KS), Jeff Sessions (AL), Gordon Smith (OR), John Sununu (NH)
Though only one retirement is announced, if the stars aligned well enough, the GOP could face a meltdown with more than a half-dozen retirements. While we can't hang our hats on that many open seats, we can probably expect a couple more to follow Wayne Allard.
