• CA-Sen: Republican Assemblyman Chuck DeVore wants you to remember that he's still running against Carly Fiorina, regardless of what the NRSC tries to tell you. When John Cornyn sent out some platitudes referring to his strong recruits in Kelly Ayotte and Carly Fiorina, DeVore let the world know in no uncertain terms what he really thinks of the NRSC.
"I welcome Senator Cornyn's endorsement of Carly Fiorina, my probable opponent for the Republican nomination to defeat Barbara Boxer in 2010. Under John Cornyn, the National Republican Senatorial Committee has racked up an impressive string of endorsements in support of non-conservative, unpopular, poorly vetted candidates across the nation. These candidacies have thus far gone on to flounder or implode."
Questions continue to circulate about HP's sales of hundreds of millions of dollars in printers and other equipment to Iran, despite the bans on trade with the nation... and more generally about her ability to close the deal in view of how poorly CEOs have done in statewide races before.
• SC-Gov: Mark Sanford's prospects have seemed to be on a roller coaster ride since his Appalachian Trail adventure, and this week he's going through another dip: now the state GOP has called for his resignation. State party chair Karen Floyd made the announcement yesterday evening.
• NC-10: Congratulations to Rep. Patrick McHenry; one of the Beltway's most eligible bachelors, he's finally off the market. He announces that he's engaged to Giulia Cangiano, a GAO economist whom he met through mutual friends.
• OH-17: He's baaaack! Ex-Rep. Jim Traficant is out of prison, and already talking about running for office. He says there's a 50/50 chance he'd run for his old seat, although it's held by a Democrat, Tim Ryan. That didn't stop him before; he ran against Ryan as an independent in 2002 and got 15% of the vote. Traficant is beaming down to a local teabagging function this weekend to get reacquainted with his constituents.
• OH-18: Although Republicans were disappointed when they didn't get state Sen. Jimmy Stewart to run, they've found another state Senator to go up against Rep. Zack Space: Bob Gibbs of Holmes County. Most of Gibbs' district is in the 16th, but Holmes County is in the 18th.
• PA-07: Republican Pat Meehan, the former US Attorney for eastern Pennsylvania, who recently bailed out of the gubernatorial primary, is ready to announce his candidacy in the 7th, where Rep. Joe Sestak is leaving behind an open seat. Meehan will make his formal announcement on Monday. Although the seat is D+3, Meehan (the former DA of Delaware County) is strong enough to make this race a very competitive even against highly touted Dem state Rep. Bryan Lentz.
• SC-02: Both heckler Joe Wilson and his Democratic opponent, Rob Miller, are now raising money like gangbusters. Miller is up above $750,000 in contributions now since the Obama address. Wilson has also raised $200,000, although not much of that seems to be coming online: at SlateCard, the GOP equivalent of ActBlue, he's raised a total of $620 from 13 supporters. PPP's Tom Jensen, who polled SC-02 last night, is teasing bad results for Wilson.
• VA-05: Although this guy seems to be the only GOP candidate in the 5th so far, don't expect him to be the nominee... especially now that he was just convicted on a concealed weapons violation. Bradley Rees was fined $100 in a local court after police found two pistols in his glove compartment. Most attention focused on state Sen. Rob Hurt as the likely GOP challenger to Rep. Tom Perriello.
• AK-Gov: George Stephanopoulos (on Twitter) thinks there might be some sort of announcement from Sarah Palin this afternoon, possibly that she won't run for re-election as governor. This wouldn't surprise me, and if so, not a bad time to bury the news.
• MN-Sen: Al Franken is going to be sworn in on Tuesday. Just seeing this photo makes me excited.
• MN-06: You know things are bad for Michele Bachmann when... well, every day is bad for her. But things are especially bad when members of her own party start telling her to STFU. "Boycotting the constitutionally mandated Census is illogical, illegal and not in the best interest of our country," wrote Patrick McHenry, Lynn Westmoreland and John Mica, members of the subcommittee which oversees the census. And these guys are some pretty wingnutty mouthbreathers. Weapons-grade wingnut Jason Chaffetz (the only other GOPer on the same cmte) refused to sign the letter.
• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes pulled in an improved 725K for the quarter - but I still think he can do better. Meanwhile, a piece of shit poll from UNH shows Kelly Ayotte "beating" Hodes 39-35. Why such harsh language? Because UNH continues its crappy track record of unacceptable samples - this time, they have it as 32R, 25D, even though there are more registered Democrats than Republicans in the state of New Hampshire. Pathetic. And in other news, former Gov. Stephen Merrill (R), who served in the mid-90s right before Jeanne Shaheen, has declined to run for the open Senate seat.
• PA-07: Republican businessman Steven Welch has made it official - he will run for the 7th CD seat, which may or may not be open, depending upon what Rep. Joe Sestak does. I can't understand why Welch would pick a holiday weekend to launch his campaign, though. (Thanks, Pan.)
• TX-Gov/AG: Former Travis County DA Ronnie Earle - best known these days as the guy who indicted Tom DeLay - just filed papers to run for statewide office. He hasn't yet said whether he'll seek the governor's mansion (which would put him on a collision course will fellow Dem Tom Schieffer) or the Attorney General's job. Either way, Earle can start raising money now.
• VA-05: A Virginia TV station is refusing to air an NRCC ad against Tom Perriello. While the station has remained mum about its reasons, Factcheck.org slammed the ad for its inaccuracies about the Waxman-Markey climate change bill. TV & radio stations are open to legal liability when they run third-party ads (they are immune when running candidate ads), so the only reason to nix a spot is because your lawyers tell you to. Nice to see the NRCC fumbling out of the gate. Perriello, meanwhile, is offering a feisty defense of his vote.
• Ads: A coalition of liberal groups is airing "thank you" ads in seventeen congressional districts, which include some potentially vulnerable Dems who voted for the climate change bill. The list: B. Markey, Boyd, Grayson, Kosmas, Hill, Halvorson, Chandler, Kratovil, Peters, Schauer, Hodes, Maffei, Kilroy, Space, Perriello, Giffords & Kagen.
• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
Daniel Johnson (D): 37
Patrick McHenry (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±5%)
If a year ago... or heck, even a month ago... you'd told someone that we'd be looking at dyed-in-the-wool dark-red southern districts like SC-01, SC-02, or NC-10 as being potentially competitive, derisive laughter would have been the proper response.
Well, here we are talking about them. While these numbers don't suggest that the GOP is likely to lose any of them, these districts shouldn't even be up for discussion. Consider that these districts are R+10, R+9, and R+15, and imagine the mirror image, which would be, say, the Democrats having to sweat the loss of MA-06, NY-04, and MA-01 while watching more precarious seats slip away from them.
The only race of the three that's within the single digits is the suddenly very-interesting SC-01 race between incumbent Henry Brown (at this point, probably best known for his lack of fire safety skills) and businesswoman and philanthropist Linda Ketner in this Charleston-based district. The idea of a Deep South district (although this Lowlands district is less evangelical than the stereotypical southern district) electing not just a progressive but an openly lesbian representative is nothing short of mind-boggling, but with the DCCC jumping in and Ketner able to self-finance too, it can't be ruled out.
