• Volunteering: Marriage/partnership equality campaigns in three states are looking for help down the home stretch. The best part is, you don't even have to leave your chair - all three organizations are looking for folks to make calls to help get out the vote. So if you'd like to help, follow the links for Maine, Washington state, and Kalamazoo, Michigan. The folks in Kalamazoo are also looking for in-person volunteers - click here if you are in the area. (D)
• CT-Sen: With Joe Lieberman back to his usual self-promoting mavericky ways, vis a vis the public option, and with the netroots worked up into a lather, it's a perfect time for Ned Lamont to step back into the spotlight. The 2006 Democratic primary winner attacked Lieberman's statements, although he sounded interested but noncommital about the idea of a 2012 rematch.
• FL-Sen: Here's another sign that the Charlie Crist camp is starting to take the Marco Rubio threat more seriously. They've launched an anti-Rubio website, TruthAboutRubio.com.
• KS-Sen: Oklahoma's Jim Inhofe endorsed Rep. Todd Tiahrt in the GOP primary in the open seat Senate race in Kansas. Inhofe seems to be the first sitting senator to endorse Tiahrt (although Rick Santorum already did); several senators (John McCain, John Thune, and Inhofe's colleague Tom Coburn) have already endorsed the less hardline Rep. Jerry Moran.
• MA-Sen: Rep. Niki Tsongas (the only woman in the Massachusetts House delegation) endorsed AG Martha Coakley in the Dem primary for the upcoming Senate special election. It's Coakley's first endorsement from a House member; four other House members have gotten behind Rep. Michael Capuano.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall has another poll of the Pennsylvania races out, and like a lot of other pollsters, they're finding that people aren't very enthused about Arlen Specter, and are getting even less enthusiastic, giving him a 28/46 favorable (down from 35/42 in August), and a 23/66 reading on the "deserves re-election" question. Specter currently leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey 33-31 (down from 37-29 in August), and beats Rep. Joe Sestak in the Dem primary 30-18 (down from 37-11). Sestak loses to Toomey, 28-20. F&M also look at the gubernatorial primaries (no general matchups, though). AG Tom Corbett leads on the GOP side over Rep. Jim Gerlach, 30-8, while the Dem field plays out: 10 for Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato, 9 from Auditor Jack Wagner, 6 for ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel, 3 for Tom Knox, and 3 for Scranton mayor Chris Doherty.
• SD-Sen: Democrats may turn to an old family name for a Senate candidate against John Thune: Mark McGovern, the 37-year-old grandson of former Senator and presidential candidate George McGovern. McGovern is state director for Repower America, a clean energy advocacy group, and was state director for the 2008 Obama campaign.
• CT-Gov: The campaign for Democratic SoS Susan Bysiewicz is making references to an internal poll that has her trailing by only 6 to the once-thought-unassailable Jodi Rell in 2010, 47-41. (And that assumes Rell runs -- given her fundraising, and now the possibility of a hard race, she may not be on track to do so.) The poll also finds Bysiewicz overperforming Stamford mayor Dan Malloy (who loses to Rell 52-31), and beating Malloy in the primary, 44-12.
• SC-Gov: An impeachment resolution against Mark Sanford was introduced today by Republican state Rep. Greg Dellenny during the brief special session. However, fellow Republican speaker Bobby Harrell ruled it out of order, as outside the scope of the special session. It'll have to wait until January.
• VA-Gov (pdf): Looks like we'll have to wait another day (and probably a lot longer than that) for signs of life in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Virginia Commonwealth issued their first poll of the race, giving Bob McDonnell a 54-36 edge over Creigh Deeds (51-33 without leaners pushed). Rasmussen chimes in with similar numbers at 54-41 for McDonnell (finding a spreading McDonnell lead like most pollsters; two weeks ago they had it at 50-43). Pollster.com's regression line has the overall total moving today to the exact same result: 54-41.
• TX-Gov: Maybe this falls under the category of an endorsement you don't really want to tout, but Kay Bailey Hutchison needs every vote she can get in what looks like a tight GOP primary with incumbent Gov. Rick Perry. KBH secured the endorsement of Dick Cheney today.
• CA-19: I'm still not sure what conservative Rep. George Radanovich did to wrong the local GOP, but the hunt goes on for an even more conservative Republican to challenge him in the primary. One possible challenger is former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson, who's looking for a new political gig. (Patterson ran for Congress in 2002 in then-new CA-21, losing the GOP primary to Devin Nunes.) Patterson may also be interested in replacing termed-out Mike Villines in the state Assembly.
• FL-08: Buried in a longer Politico piece titled, appropriately, "Rivals shy away from Alan Grayson" are three more potential Republican challengers: first-term state Rep. Eric Eisnaugle, attorney Will McBride (who lost the 2006 Senate primary to Katherine Harris), and businessman Bruce O'Donoghue. O'Donoghue, who's close to Mel Martinez, sounds like the likeliest of those three to run.
• NY-23: Big money continues to flow into the 23rd on the pro-Bill Owens side, with another $245K from the DCCC, and $200K from the AFSCME. MoveOn.org has also started flogging this race in its fundraising e-mails, saying that it's a chance to rebuke the Palin/teabagger wing of the GOPers. Meanwhile, Doug Hoffman continues to rack up the endorsements from people that no one in the 23rd has ever heard of: South Carolina Sen. Jim DeMint, California Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, and even Oklahoma House candidate Kevin Calvey and California Senate candidate Chuck DeVore. RNC chair Michael Steele is still standing by Dede Scozzafava, though.
• TN-09: It looks like former Memphis mayor Willie Herenton may self-destruct before Rep. Steve Cohen even lays into him in the Dem primary in the 9th. Herenton is reportedly the target of a criminal probe by the local US Attorney's office focusing on "personal business transactions" during his time as mayor. Herenton, naturally, is calling the investigation politically-motivated.
• VA-02: Here's a screwup for Ben Loyola, one of the Republicans jostling to take on freshman Dem Rep. Glenn Nye and one who made a big self-funding impact last quarter. Loyola may have low-balled estimates of the value of a division of his company that he sold to a Swedish firm, at best a disclosure violation in terms of reporting his net worth, and at worst an illegal campaign contribution.
• EMILY's List: EMILY's List added four Democratic House members to its list of endorsees. Three are swing-district freshmen (Debbie Halvorson, Ann Kirkpatrick, and Dina Titus), and the other one is the perpetually shaky Carol Shea-Porter.
• WA-Init: A slew of polls out of Washington yesterday and today, containing good news. UW's Washington Poll finds that R-71 (a referendum in favor of expanded domestic partnership) is passing 57-38, while I-1033 (the latest TABOR-style anti-tax initiative from initiative huckster Tim Eyman) is failing 40-49. These numbers are confirmed by SurveyUSA, which finds R-71 passing 50-43, and I-1033 going down 38-50. The Washington Poll also looks at the King County Executive race, which (though ostensibly nonpartisan) sees Democratic county councilor Dow Constantine beating Republican former news anchor Susan Hutchison 47-34 -- they don't have trendlines, and the only comparison point is SurveyUSA, who last showed Hutchison with a surprising 47-42 lead, so this one still bears watching. The Washington Poll finds Joe Mallahan leading Mike McGinn in the Seattle mayor's race, 44-36.
• Census: An independent analysis of the effect of the proposed David Vitter legislation that would only count U.S. citizens for purposes of reapportionment finds a very different looking House. California post-2010 would lose five House seats, and Texas would gain only one House seat (instead of the projected three). The proposed change would also spare Iowa, Louisiana, Michigan, and Pennsylvania the expected loss of one seat each. (The study is worth a look also because it projects which states gain and lose seats according to normal rules, and also looks at which metro areas are experiencing 'brain drain.')
• NV-Sen: John Ensign's once potent fundraising has gone decidedly flaccid in the wake of the Hampton affair, dwindling approval ratings, and a likelihood of not coming back in 2012. He raised less than $33K in the third quarter (and managed to spend more than that, on various legal fees and consultants).
• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak's fundraising for the third quarter was half of what Arlen Specter raised: $758K for Sestak (also less than half of his 2Q number), vs. $1.8 million for Specter. Take out the money that Obama raised for Specter at their fundraiser, though, and they're close to parity on last quarter's numbers. Meanwhile, the allegedly fiscally-disciplined Pat Toomey raised $1.6 million in 3Q, but has been burning through cash quickly, spending $861K and ending up with $1.8 million CoH.
• IL-Gov: This is good news for John McCain... 's former media guy. State GOP chair Andy McKenna made clear he's going to, if nothing else, spend a lot of money on his gubernatorial campaign. He just hired ad guru Fred Davis, creator of the infamous "Celebrity" ad last summer. President McCain, of course, will confirm how well that one worked out for him.
• PA-Gov: Rasmussen polled the Democratic and Republican fields in the gubernatorial race, finding what most other pollsters have seen: AG Tom Corbett is mopping up on the GOP side, while nobody has a clue who the Democratic candidates are. Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach 54-10 (with 6 for some other and 30 not sure). For the Dems, "not sure" is kicking ass at 37, followed by Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato at 19, state Auditor Jack Wagner at 14, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel at 11, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, rich guy Tom Knox at 4, and "some other" at 10.
• VA-Gov: One last look at how the candidates are faring financially in the Virginia governor's race. Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds raised about the same amount in September ($3.8 mil for McD, $3.5 mil for Deeds), but McDonnell enters the home stretch with a lot more cash on hand ($4.5 mil for McD, $2.8 mil for Deeds).
• FL-08: Among the contributors to liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson's one-day haul of $60K at the end of the fundraising quarter (and after his "die quickly" speech) were two prominent Blue Dogs: Reps. Bart Gordon and Collin Peterson.
• FL-19: State Sen. Ted Deutch wasted no time. The leading contender to take over FL-19 in the wake of Rob Wexler's departure officially entered the race yesterday.
• IN-01: Nobody has really regarded long-time Democratic Rep. Pete Visclosky as vulnerable in his bluish district, but he's laboring under an ethical cloud from his role in the PMA lobbying firm scandal, and now out $100,000 in legal fees resulting from subpoenas in the matter. He's sitting on $916K CoH, down from $1.47 mil at this point in the 2007-08 cycle.
• NY-15: Rep. Charlie Rangel, facing some ethical problems of his own, may face another primary challenger with a famous family name: Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV (who previously ran against Rangel in 1994). With a former staffer already in the race, though, this could fracture the anti-Rangel vote and inadvertently let Rangel slip through again.
• NY-19: Looks like the free-spending Ophthalmologists' PAC has one sure target for their largesse this cycle: Nan Hayworth, a Westchester County eye doctor, says that she'll run for the GOP nomination. This is despite the presence of a high-profile (if somewhat questionable and controversial) recruit in the field already, Assemblyman Greg Ball. Hayworth starts with $318K CoH, half from her own wallet and half apparently from her eye doctors friends, giving her a sizable edge over Ball's $213K CoH. The winner will face off against incumbent Dem Rep. John Hall.
• NY-20: Thursday was the official Last Day of Tedisco. Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, the loser of this year's special election filed a notice of termination of his exploratory committee, seemingly ending any plans for a re-run in 2010.
• NY-23: Dinged by reports that the RNC wasn't getting adequately involved in the 23rd (or involved, period), Michael Steele announced that the RNC will be making an unspecified "six-figure" contribution to the NRCC in support of efforts in the 23rd, as well as $85K to the state party. Also seeking to quell reports of civil war, Newt Gingrich -- who passes for the GOP's voice of sanity these days -- went ahead and endorsed Dede Scozzafava, which may not move many votes on the ground but may move some Beltway dollars into her kitty.
• OH-16, 18: Biden alert (again)! The VP will be heading to Ohio to host a joint fundraiser for sorta-vulnerable Democratic Reps. John Boccieri and Zack Space in several weeks.
• SC-02: Rob Miller got a huge boost in his fundraising in the wake of "You lie!" and pulled in $1.7 million. Unfortunately, he seemed to peak early after an initial outpouring of support, with little follow-up with the netroots; contrast that with Rep. Joe Wilson, who continued to push his newfound celebrity with the GOP base and, despite being initially outraised, wound up the quarter with $2.7 million.
• NY-St. Sen: State Senator Hiram Monserrate was convicted yesterday of assault, but instead of the felony charge that was sought, he was only convicted of a misdemeanor -- which means that he isn't automatically out of the Senate. That means Dems are stuck with the coup-joining convict until next year's primary... unless he resigns, something that fellow Sen. Liz Krueger is already pushing, or is expelled.
• Mayors: In not much of a surprise, Shelby County mayor A.C. Wharton won the special election to take over as Memphis mayor. His 60% share (against 24 other opponents) is pretty impressive, though. Wharton argues his margin is a mandate for his pet project, uniting Memphis and Shelby County governments into one entity.
• Polling: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has a fascinating polling memo titled "The Very Separate World of Conservative Republicans" out, based on focus groups of GOP base voters in Georgia that look at what's driving the accelerating freakout among the hard right. The diagnosis seems to be acute paranoia with persecution complex: while few couched their viewpoint in an explicitly racist way (which may surprise some), there is a sense among them of being a "mocked minority" and a overarching sense of an Obama administration "secret agenda" to bankrupt the country and exert government control over all aspects of our lives. I don't know if Ed Kilgore had advance knowledge of this study, but it dovetails exactly with his remarkable piece earlier this week focusing on how the roots of the screamers and teabaggers isn't so much overtly racist as motivated by a growing out-of-control sense of loss of the 'old ways' (i.e. replacement of small-town, homogeneous, traditional America with a multiracial, globalized future).
Arlen Specter's party switch, which looked like smart self-preservation at the time, may not be doing him any favors these days, as he looks to be stuck between the Scylla and Charybdis of Rep. Joe Sestak and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey. Specter finds himself losing to Toomey in the general (though not by as wide a margin as Rasmussen saw in August at the height of town-hall-mania), and now he finds Sestak pulling within the margin of error on his left, making Rasmussen the first pollster to see a single-digit race in the Dem primary.
Also very interesting: Rasmussen continues its trend (verified by Dane & Associates earlier this week) of finding, contrary to conventional wisdom, that Sestak polls better against Toomey than does Specter, casting doubt on whatever moderate electability argument Specter might make. Rasmussen finds Specter with 46/52 favorables (with only 2% unsure), so he has little room to grow. Toomey clocks in at 52/27; Sestak is least-known, at 37/34 with 30% not sure, so that seems to give him the highest ceiling.
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 44
Joe Sestak (D): 16
(MoE: ±3.7%)
Republican pollster Susquehanna also came out with a Senate poll a few days ago, and although it gives him it a bigger edge over Sestak, it shouldn't fill Specter with much joy either. He barely squeaks by Toomey (a 1-point lead, down from 9 in May before things started to go haywire for him), and he's looking at a "deserves re-election" number of 31% (versus 59% "someone else").
As a throw-in, they also tested the Republican gubernatorial primary, where AG Tom Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach 36-13 with 50% undecided. There are no numbers released for a Sestak/Toomey head-to-head, or the gubernatorial Dem primary or general.
• AZ-Sen: Does the persistent rumor of a J.D. Hayworth primary challenge to John McCain boil down to nothing more than a Hayworth grudge against former key McCain aide Mark Salter (and thus a way for Hayworth to keep yanking McCain's chain)? That's what the Arizona Republic is proposing, pointing to a 2005 dust-up between Hayworth and Salter over immigration reform. Hayworth, for his part, says that "spite" would never fuel a primary bid.
• IL-Sen: GOP Rep. Mark Kirk is touting an internal poll taken for him by Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies that has him beating Democratic state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias in a Senate head-to-head, 42-35. It also shows Kirk in strong shape in the primary, leading developer Patrick Hughes (who seems to be cornering the wingnut vote) 61-3.
• KY-Sen: The allegedly third tape (although nobody seems to remember what the second one was) involving Lt. Gov. and Senate candidate Dan Mongiardo trashing his boss (and one of his few endorsers), Gov. Steve Beshear, has surfaced. This time, Mongiardo says people he talks to want to "yell" about Beshear and says, "It's like being married to a whore." This time it popped up directly on YouTube instead of on a Rand Paul fan blog.
• NV-Sen: Markos has an interesting observation, that may give some comfort to the Reid boys as they face an onslaught of bad polls. Democrats now have a registration edge of nearly 100,000 in Nevada, and it's growing: since February, Dems have added 4,860 while the GOP has added 1,549. In fact, this sad performance puts the GOP fourth, as both nonpartisan registration and the right-wing Independent American Party gained more new registrants.
• PA-Sen (pdf): One more poll from Dane & Associates via GrassrootsPA, and it gives narrow edges to both Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak over Republican ex-Rep. Pat Toomey in the 2010 Senate race (46-43 for Specter and 43-38 for Sestak). Worth noting: this is only the second poll (after that freaky Rasmussen poll in August) that shows Sestak performing better against Toomey than does Specter.
• TX-Sen, Gov: Kay Bailey Hutchison may be getting some cold feet about committing to a resignation date from the Senate. In response to questions on a conservative radio talk show, it's sounding like she's unlikely to resign her seat by year's end. However, she also doesn't sound like she'll stay in her seat all the way through to the gubernatorial primary election in March, saying "that's not what [she wants] to do." (Although it's understandable she may want to keep her day job if the whole being-governor thing doesn't work out.)
• NJ-Gov: PPP has its poll of the New Jersey gubernatorial race out, and like everyone else these days, they're seeing it as pure tossup. Chris Christie leads Jon Corzine 40-39, with 13 for independent Chris Daggett. (It's right in line with today's Pollster.com average of 41-40 for Christie.)That's tremendous progress for Corzine, who was down 44-35-13 last month. Also, it's worth noting that not only is Corzine dragging Christie down to his level but he's actually starting to improve his own favorables; he's up to 37/55, still terrible but better than last month's 32/60. The race will still depend on getting unlikely Dem voters to turn out; the likely voter pool went for Obama by only 4% last year, way off from the actual 15% margin. One last tidbit: the poll asks Daggett voters their second choice, and Christie wins that one 48-34 (suggesting that Daggett does more damage to Christie, but that Christie's best hope is to peel off some of the vacillating Daggett supporters).
• VA-Gov: Not much change in Virginia, where Rasmussen finds a 50-43 lead for Republican Bob McDonnell in that gubernatorial race. (This is right in line with today's Pollster.com average of 51-43.) Two weeks ago, Rasmussen found that McD led Creigh Deeds 51-42.
• FL-08: This seems kind of surprising, given freshman Rep. Alan Grayson's over-the-top invitations to rumble (or who knows... maybe being aggressive actually works to cow Republicans?). After a lot of public vacillating, it turns out that Republican former state Sen. Daniel Webster, considered the strongest contender to go up against Grayson, won't run. Rich guys Jerry Pierce and Armando Gutierrez Jr. are in the race, but the establishmenet Plan D (with Webster, state House speaker Larry Cretul, and Orange Co. Mayor Rich Crotty out) seems likely to fall to state Rep. Stephen Precourt, who expressed interest but said he'd defer to Webster.
• NC-11: Looks like businessman Jeff Miller declined for a good reason yesterday, as the GOP nailed down a stronger-sounding competitor to go up against Rep. Heath Shuler in the R+6 11th. Greg Newman, the mayor of Hendersonville (pop. 10,000 in 2000) since 2005, says he'll take on Shuler.
• SC-05: State Sen. Mick Mulvaney looks ready to launch his candidacy, most likely on the 17th at a GOP gathering in the district. He'll take on 27-year incumbent and House Budget chair John Spratt.
• TN-St. House: There's a small House special election in Tennessee tonight, with big stakes. HD 62, located in rural south central Tennessee (its major town is Shelbyville) was vacated by a Democrat, Curt Cobb, who resigned to take a better-paying job; Cobb's brother Ty is facing off against Republican Pat Marsh. It's GOP leaning territory, though (this is part of the 6th CD, which had a very sharp Democratic falloff in 2008). The stakes are high because the Democrats hold the chamber by a 1-vote margin, 50-49, thanks only to a power-sharing arrangement with renegade Republican Kent Williams who serves as the Speaker elected with Democratic votes. A Republican victory here could give control of the House back to the GOP, if they're able to reorganize in midterm. If the Republicans can control the state House and pick up the governor's office in 2010, they'll control the resdistricting trifecta.
• Mayors: One other election on the docket in Tennessee tonight Thursday: Shelby Co. Mayor A.C. Wharton is looking likely to become the new mayor in Memphis. Polling has him leading Mayor Pro Tem Myron Lowery by a wide margin. (There are 25 candidates in the race, including professional wrestler Jerry Lawler.) The mayoral job was vacated, of course, by long-time mayor Willie Herenton, who after several abortive attempts to resign in the past is leaving to challenge Rep. Steve Cohen in a primary.
Dan Onorato (D): 28
Tom Corbett (R): 47
Don't know: 24
Jack Wagner (D): 29
Tom Corbett (R): 44
Don't know: 25
(MoE: ±3%)
Dan Onorato (D): 14 (16)
Joe Hoeffel (D): 12 (NA)
Jack Wagner (D): 11 (16)
Chris Doherty (D): 8 (NA)
Tom Knox (D): 5 (13)
Don't know: 46 (54)
Tom Corbett (R): 42 (38)
Jim Gerlach (R): 13 (15)
Don't know: 43 (37)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
Lots of data to look at from Quinnipiac, who look at the primary fields in both the Senate and Governor's races in Pennsylvania as well as head-to-head general election matchups in both races. The Senate race has both Sen. Arlen Specter and Rep. Joe Sestak neck-and-neck with ex-Rep. Pat Toomey; there has actually been very little movement since the previous Quinnipiac poll in the head-to-heads, although the Democratic primary looks a lot closer (but at this point Specter seems to be bleeding votes to "don't know" rather than directly to Sestak).
Things look worse in the Governor's race, where AG Tom Corbett leads both Auditor Jack Wagner and Allegheny Co. Executive Dan Onorato by double digits. In July, everyone was so little-known that Quinnipiac simply asked a Generic D/Generic R question (where "R" won, 38-37), so clearly Wagner and Onorato are underperforming their imaginary Dem colleague. This may, however, be a factor of name recognition, as Corbett is much better-known than any of his competition (he has 43/7 favorables with 49% don't know, while Gerlach and all the Dems top 70% don't know). It seems like Wagner (who is elected statewide, and actually had the biggest victory of anyone running statewide in 2008) should be well-known -- but setting aside us political junkies, who really knows who their Auditor is (while Corbett has spent years in the spotlight via the Bonusgate investigation)?
There's one other consideration here, one that cropped up with Quinnipiac's last poll too: they sampled an equal number of Democrats and Republicans (they may have oversampled to compensate, but they simply don't provide any more details in the crosstabs as to whether that's what they did), which is way off from the state's actual composition. Bear in mind, though, that Nate Silver re-ran the July numbers to correct for that problem and found that it only made a few points' worth of difference... so at this point, this looks more a case of low-info voters not yet knowing enough about Toomey other than that he's not Arlen Specter, and not knowing much of anything about anybody other than Corbett in the governor's race. (UPDATE: In response to questions about the July poll, Quinnipiac said they weighted, but based on 'party identification' rather than registration. Assumedly they're using the same method this time too.)
• MA-Sen: AG Martha Coakley wasted no time in announcing her candidacy for the special election for the Massachusetts Senate seat; unlike the myriad members of the House delegation, she's not waiting to see if a Kennedy gets in. Meanwhile, people are definitely talking about a candidacy by Curt Schilling, retired from the Boston Red Sox. If Schilling runs, he's ineligible to do so as a Republican, though; he's registered as an independent, and he doesn't have enough time under Massachusetts to change his registration to be able to run as an R. (Schilling himself acknowledges he may not be the best candidate, although he clearly is enjoying the spotlight.)
• NC-Sen: Former state Sen. and Iraq vet Cal Cunningham seems to be acting more like a candidate, and he got a big boost from a recent speech to a Democratic group in Charlotte which has gone viral, as they kids say these days. He lit Burr up with zinger after zinger, effectively summing up the anonymous Burr this way: "In 15 years on Capitol Hill you can't name one thing that Richard Burr has done to make your life better, and I can't either."
• NV-Sen: Feeling confident after seeing several polls giving her an edge over Harry Reid, Nevada GOP chair Sue Lowden is resigning her post, presumably with an eye toward a Senate run. Since there are already announced candidates (former SoS candidate Danny Tarkanian), she's resigning as of Sep. 30 to avoid a conflict of interest.
• PA-Sen, PA-Gov (pdf): Franklin & Marshall is out with a poll of the Pennsylvania races, although the undecideds are bizarrely large. Case in point, Arlen Specter leads Joe Sestak 37-11 in the Dem primary (with 46% don't know and 6% other). Specter bests Pat Toomey in the general, 37-29, while Toomey beats Sestak, 26-22. (As an amusing aside, Sestak and Toomey had a Specter-free debate at Muhlenberg College last night and then adjourned to a local pub together for a round of beers and further private trash-talking of Specter.) F&M also polled the GOP gubernatorial primary, where Tom Corbett leads Jim Gerlach 15-6 (with 73% don't know!). Outgoing Gov. Ed Rendell has quickly plunged from most popular figure in the state to least popular, with a favorable of 32/53.
• MN-Gov: Former Dem state House leader Matt Entenza recently hired Friend of SSP Dana Houle to manage his campaign for governor. Congrats to Dana, and best wishes to Entenza, who made a wise choice. (D)
• NV-Gov: You know your political career is over when other members of your own party are using your name as a cudgel against their opposition. Minor GOP gubernatorial candidate Mike Montandon issued a press release attacking John Ensign over his alleged recruiting of recently-retired federal judge Brian Sandoval into the gubernatorial primary. (Although presumably the intent was to besmirch his opponent Sandoval, by linking him to Ensign.)
• VA-Gov: One more poll to mention in Virginia, not as favorable as the PPP poll from Tuesday. Rasmussen's latest look at the race gives Bob McDonnell a 51-42 lead over Creigh Deeds with leaners (49-39 without), not much changed from the early August sample of 47-38. The entire one-day sample was on Sep. 1, after news of McDonnell's anti-fornicator manifesto had broken. Speaking of said master's thesis, Deeds is already on the air with radio spots (wisely airing only in northern Virginia) attacking McDonnell over the thesis. In another sign of Dems' renewed confidence in this race, the DNC is pouring a truckload of cash into the race: $5 million.
• CA-50: Dave Roberts, a city councilor and former mayor in Solana Beach, confirmed today that he'll be a candidate in the 50th against GOP Rep. Brian Bilbray. Roberts, an openly gay veteran, has sounded more conservative notes than the other Dems in the primary, 2006 candidate Francine Busby and attorney Tracy Emblem; he recently changed his registration from Independent to Democratic. (UPDATE: The Roberts camp informs us that he is not a veteran.)
• FL-16: The DCCC sounds happy with its recruit to go against freshman Tom Rooney, 36-year-old St. Lucie County Commissioner Chris Craft. He also has a compelling backstory, as seen in this recent interview.
• NH-01: Here's a poll of the hotly contested race in the 1st, courtesy of Populus Research (the same guys who polled NH-Sen a few weeks ago and found no undecideds) on behalf of the conservative site Now Hampshire. Carol Shea-Porter leads GOP mayor of Manchester Frank Guinta, 46.3%-43.4% (I'm not sure what's up with the extra significant digits when the MoE is still 4%, but who am I to nitpick?). Guinta previously released an NRCC internal poll in April that had him down 43-34.
• NY-23: Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava seems to have one Achilles heel in the NY-23 open seat special election: her brother Thomas (in the fine tradition of Billy Carter, Roger Clinton, and Neil Bush). Turns out she owns $1 million in preferred stock (and a 3% voting stake) in her brother's troubled company, Seaway Valley Capital Corporation, a holding company whose subsidiaries owe $192,000 in back taxes. She maintains she's a mere "passive investor," although she is COO of an affiliated company, Seaway Capital Partners.
• KY-State Sen.: It looks like Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear is going to continue his stealth plan to dismantle the GOP's majority in the Kentucky state Senate, one seat at a time. Still riding high off of Democrat Robin Webb's recent win of a GOP-held state Senate seat, Republican Senate President David Williams is pre-emptively whining in the press about Beshear's efforts to see that GOP Senate Majority Leader Dan Kelly gets nominated to a vacant circuit judgeship. This move has been rumored for some time, and back in July, the names of two Democrats were floated for a potential special election in Kelly's seat in central Kentucky's Bourbon territory: former state Rep. Jodie Haydon of Bardstown or Nicky Rapier, the son of the late House leader Kenny Rapier. (J)
Pat Toomey (R) 48
Arlen Specter (D) 36
Other 4
Not Sure 12
Pat Toomey (R) 43
Joe Sestak (D) 35
Other 5
Not Sure 18
Two obvious takeaways here. One, Toomey has taken the lead. Is it discontent over the protracted health care reform debate? Is it burgeoning discontent with Specter himself harming the Democratic brand in Pennsylvania? And how temporary will this lead be? Unclear.
Two, the "electability" argument in the Democratic primary has flipped. In previous polls, Specter matched up against Toomey better than Congressman Sestak did (no doubt relying largely on Specter's strong name ID). In this poll, however, Congressman Sestak matches up better. His deficit against Toomey is only 8 points (and, remember, Congressman Sestak has never run statewide, unlike Toomey, and is still working to build name recognition across the state, which should improve his numbers significantly), while Specter's deficit against Toomey is 12 points. This is probably due to a plummetting favorable-unfavorable rating for Specter, as Rasmussen points out; Specter's is down to 43-54.
While the numbers against Toomey are nothing to celebrate, this poll further cements the notion that Arlen Specter would not serve Democrats well as the Party's Senate nominee.
• CT-Sen: Political expediency makes you do weird things. Shortly after ultra-conservative Pat Tooomey, facing minor opposition in the Pennsylvania GOP primary but having to remodel himself for the general, came out in support of Sonia Sotomayor's nomination, now moderate Rob Simmons, facing serious opposition from the right in the Connecticut GOP primary, has come out against Sotomayor.
• IL-Sen: A poll from Democratic firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner (no mention on whose behalf the poll was taken) finds that state treasurer Alexi Giannoulias should have little trouble gaining the Democratic nomination for the Senate race. In a 3-way matchup, he gets 45% of the vote, with businessman Chris Kennedy at 17% and Chicago Urban League president Cheryle Jackson at 13%. However, Kennedy seems to be backing down from the race and may instead run for Governor if he runs for anything; a 2-way matchup between Giannoulias and Jackson gives Giannoulias a 51-21 edge.
• KY-Sen: Rand Paul, opthalmologist and son of former Presidential candidate Ron Paul, officially kicked off his race for the GOP Senate nomination. And here's an interesting choice: he's making the kickoff announcement in New York City, saying that it's a national race and that, according to a spokesperson, "If he makes it to the Senate and votes in D.C., he'll vote for people in New York and in California. His vote matters that much." Yeah... I'm sure that'll play really well among the actual people in Kentucky, that their Senator will be voting on behalf of New Yorkers and Californians.
• NH-Sen: After a lot of criticism on the ground in New Hampshire, especially from the editorial page of the influential (among right-wingers) Manchester Union-Leader, John Cornyn is backing down from plans to coronate Kelly Ayotte with an NRSC fundraiser in DC in September, and said that the planned fundraiser hadn't been an endorsement. Dean at Blue Hampshire wonders when the NRSC Ovide Lamontagne fundraiser will be.
• NY-Gov: While the general sense is that behind-the-scenes power brokers are giving David Paterson a little more time to turn the polls around before trying to usher him out the door, 11 labor leaders in Buffalo aren't waiting. They sent a letter to Andrew Cuomo -- whose official story is that he's running for re-election as AG, but whose private interest is well-known -- urging him to run and, while not guaranteeing him their endorsement, saying they look forward to him running.
• SC-Gov: It looks like Democrats may have landed a top-tier candidate for the 2010 gubernatorial race: state superintendent of education Jim Rex, SC's only statewide elected Democrat. Few had expected the 67-year-old Rex to get into the field (which already contains state Sens. Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford and attorney Mullins McLeod), based on his fundraising so far. But, he may have sensed an opening, despite South Carolina's red hue, in the wake of Mark Sanford's implosion (and the way it laid bare a lot of people's concerns with his possible general election opponent, Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer). Rex has formed an exploratory committee to start raising funds for a gubernatorial bid, and says he'll make a final decision on the race "by early September".
• CA-10: The GOP added one more Young Gun this week (as an "On the Radar" pick, which I assume is analogous to R2B's "Emerging" picks last year): attorney David Harmer, the guy who's running for the Republicans in September's special election. At D+11, I'm not sure what I can add, other than "good luck with that."
• CA-47: Speaking of Young Guns, Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in this Latino-majority D+4 district, was a surprise inclusion in the program (well, maybe not that surprising, since he's been fundraising well in the larger Vietnamese community). However, his primary opponent, Quang Pham, isn't daunted, and has now set a $250K goal of his own for the end of next quarter; he'll be including some of his own funds toward that goal.
• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz, who now lives in the Orlando area, confirmed that he won't run as a Republican for the 24th next year. Reports came out yesterday that he'd talked to the NRCC about a run. Three Republicans, including two termed-out state Reps, are already in the race against Dem freshman Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.
• IL-10: Another Republican may get into the race to replace Rep. Mark Kirk: businesswoman Renee Thaler, a former official in ex-Gov. Jim Edgar's administration, formed an exploratory committee. State Rep. Beth Coulson is the only elected GOPer interested in the race, along with businessman Dick Green and attorneys Jim Koch and Bill Cadigan.
• NH-02: The Democratic field in the open seat race in the 2nd got smaller, though; former state Sen. and gubernatorial candidate Mark Fernald dropped out the race, citing family reasons. Attorney Ann McLane Kuster is the only candidate officially in the race, although party insider Katrina Swett is expected by all to get in soon.
• PA-06: The primary fight is on, for the GOP, in the open seat race in PA-06. Chester County Recorder of Deeds Ryan Costello entered the race; he'll face off against state Rep. Curt Schroder, who has already been preparing for the race for many months. Democratic candidate Doug Pike is still unopposed, at least for now.
• Where Are They Now?: On their way to prison, that's where. Former Rep. Bill Jefferson was convicted on 11 of 16 counts, including a RICO charge which carries a possible 20-year sentence. (Thanks to Joe Cao for hustling Jefferson out the door before he could be convicted while still a sitting Democratic Representative, saving us some bad PR.) Also, in yesterday's comments, Fitzy has a hilarious and must-read timeline of the slow decline of Sharon Renier, our 04 and 06 candidate in MI-07, who, in the wake of her primary loss in a recent state Senate special election, has quite literally gone off the reservation.
It was a big day in Pennsylvania, with Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak formally announcing his primary challenge to recent convert Arlen Specter this morning. Sestak faces a major challenge in going up against an incumbent backed by the White House and sitting on big leads in the polls, but he likes it that way:
"I love being the underdog," Sestak said. "A lot of room to grow. Seventy percent of the people don't know me enough to make a decision, and I'm going to give them that opportunity."
In a D-on-D primary like this, with Arlen Specter being forced to smooth out his long list of conservative votes as part of the GOP caucus for decades, hitting back against Sestak isn't an easy thing to do... but Specter's team is making the effort. From the miracle of human and technological evolution that is Twitter:
"His months of indecisiveness on his candidacy raises a real question as to his competency to handle the tough rapid-fire decisions required of a Senator," Specter wrote.
"During his continuing taxpayer-financed self-promotion tour around the State, Sestak should explain why, when Pennsylvanians are working harder, he can barely show up for work."
Sestak will try to make Specter answer for a laundry list of crappy votes (from Iraq to Bush's economic agenda) -- votes that the recent progressive convert will have a hard time justifying, so he'll try to make this primary be a referendum on his seniority, and, I guess, record of "getting things done". Somehow I think Sestak has the saucier narrative.
Meanwhile, a somewhat hilarious sideshow to this Dem fracas is likely GOP nominee Pat Toomey's pivot to the left, most recently witnessed today by his support for Supreme Court nominee Sonia Sotomayor. With no primary competition to force his hand, it looks like Toomey will be attempting to quietly put distance between himself and the insanity of his Club For Growth brand of politics by making a few of these easy concessions to the center. Let's see how far this takes him.
Snarlin' Arlen finds himself on slightly more comfortable footing in the primary, but the general election is a different story. I can't tell if the sample's been skewed a bit in the GOP's favor or not -- Quinnipiac did poll an almost equal amount of Dems as they did Republicans this time, which is not something they did in May (and not something that reflects the Democratic registration advantage in PA), but it's also possible that these are oversamples made for the purposes of getting a clearer primary picture on both sides. It's hard for me to tell without being able to pop open the hood. It'd be surprising to me if Quinnipiac fell victim to a mistake that any Polling 101 student would spot, but stranger things have happened.
• TX-Gov: Holy crap, Kay Bailey Hutchison is running for Governor of Texas! Of course, everyone with a pulse has known this for most of a year, but it's now official: she's done exploring the race and formally launched her campaign yesterday. She also found a lot of cash under the couch cushions during all those explorations, as she put together $6.7 million during the first half of the year. Factoring in her $8 million transfer from her Senate account, she's sitting on about $12 million CoH. Her primary opponent, incumbent Gov. Rick Perry, raised $4.2 million in the year's first half (a lot, considering he couldn't raise during the legislative session) and has $9.3 million CoH.
• FL-Sen: Ordinarily, you probably wouldn't want to spotlight an endorsement from an unlikable jerk with a ridiculous name, but Marco Rubio is trying to rally the nationwide wingnut brigade to his financially faltering campaign ($340K last quarter), so he rolled out an endorsement from ex-House Majority Leader Dick Armey today.
• IL-Sen: Now that he's done holding his breath and turning blue until that nasty Andy McKenna would go away, Rep. Mark Kirk has announced that he'll announce that he'll announce that he'll announce his candidacy, or something like that, "in one week." Roll Call also has a look at the consternation that Kirk's messed-up rollout caused both local and national GOP figures, stepping on their attempts to crow "recruitment success."
Meanwhile, people are starting to wonder openly when if ever businessman Chris Kennedy is going to pull the trigger on getting into the Dem field. His hesitation is already landing him in legal hot water: a local police officer filed an FEC complaint against Kennedy for allegedly spending more than $5,000 on campaign outlays without actually having a campaign in place.
• NV-Sen: John Ensign (apparently emboldened by fellow C Street dweller Mark Sanford's seat-of-his-pants survival of his own affair) is proceeding full speed ahead, not just planning not to resign but to run for re-election in 2012. TPM wonders out loud if Harry Reid is one of the Dems who've urged Ensign to stay on board.
• PA-Sen: The NRSC finally officially endorsed Pat Toomey today. This comes hot on the heels of news that state Sen. Jane Orie (who was being chatted up by the NRSC last week) has decided against running against Pat Toomey in the GOP senate primary. Rumors abound that Rick Santorum, nursing some sort of grudge against Toomey, was the driving force behind the Orie boomlet. Meanwhile, Arlen Specter today announced a 2Q haul of $1.7 million, narrowly topping both Toomey ($1.6 million) and Joe Sestak ($1 million in his House account).
• CA-Gov: Meg Whitman is sitting on a ton of cash now, having added $15 million of her own money on top of $6.7 million in private contributions, bringing her total stash to more than $25 million. Her GOP primary rival, Insurance Comm. Steve Poizner anted up $5 million of his own money, along with $1.2 million in contributions, during that same period.
• CT-Gov: A strangely quiet fundraising period for Jodi Rell has some wondering if she's going to run for re-election. She raised $20,000 in the most recent quarter, with $71K CoH, outpaced by potential Democratic challengers SoS Susan Bysiewicz ($141K for the quarter) and Stamford mayor Dan Malloy ($147K).
• OH-Gov: Betcha didn't know that ex-Rep. John Kasich had an opponent in the GOP gubernatorial primary in Ohio: state Sen. Kevin Coughlin. Well, apparently no one else knew that either, and having gotten nowhere on the fundraising front in the face of party opposition, Coughlin bailed out yesterday.
• VA-Gov: Creigh Deeds beat Bob McDonnell in fundraising in June ($3.4 million for Deeds, $1.8 million for McDonnell), but he had to blow through a lot of that in the primary. McDonnell is sitting on a lot more cash on hand, with almost $5 million compared with Deeds' $2.7 million.
• CA-11: This is the first I've heard of this guy -- vintner Brad Goehring -- who's planning to challenge Jerry McNerney in the 11th. He's not getting off on the right foot, though, with the appearance of 2006 statements where he shrugged off the problem of 40% of his workforce being undocumented immigrants... not likely to help him much with the nativist core of what's left of the California GOP base.
• CA-32: In case you'd forgotten (and most likely you had; I know I did), the general special election for the race to fill the vacant seat left behind by Labor Sec. Hilda Solis is today. Today's election is an afterthought, given that the race was basically won in a heavily-contested May primary in this solid Dem district. Someone named "Chu" is guaranteed to win, although in all likelihood it'll be Democratic Board of Equalization member Judy Chu over Republican Monterey Park city councilor Betty Chu.
• FL-12: The Blue Dogs have already weighed in with their first endorsement of the cycle, endorsing Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards in the open 12th district to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, who's running for Florida Agricultural Commissioner.
• KY-St. Sen.: Gov. Steve Beshear is seemingly taking a page from Barack Obama, picking off Republican legislators and giving them secure appointive positions instead, opening up their seats for possible Democratic takeove. Sens. Dan Kelly and Charlie Borders were appointed to a judgeship and the Public Service Commission, respectively. Dems are optimistic about retaking both the seats, with state Rep. Robin Webb looking at Borders' seat in Kentucky's NE corner, and former state Rep. Jodie Haydon looking at Kelly's seat in Bourbon territory in the state's center. This will hopefully put a dent in the GOP's 21-16-1 edge.
• Census: Census Director Robert Groves was finally confirmed after the Dems used a cloture vote to break the hold on him, leaving him with only eight months to whip the Census into shape. Only 15 GOPers voted against cloture, including Richard Shelby and David Vitter, the ones who'd had the hold on the nomination, and some of the other dead-enders (Brownback, Bunning, Cornyn, Ensign, Sessions, etc.... although, interestingly, Coburn and Kyl voted for cloture). Meanwhile, Michele Bachmann continues her one-woman war on the Census, proposing legislation that would limit the number of question the American Community Survey (the annual supplement, not the 2010 full count) can ask.
• Polltopia: PPP is asking for your input on another state to poll, so let 'em hear it. The finalists are California, Iowa, and Louisiana.
• NC-Sen: Republican pollster Civitas poked at the Senate race, not doing head-to-heads but looking at favorables for Richard Burr and two of his likeliest challengers, SoS Elaine Marshall and Rep. Mike McIntyre. Marshall and McIntyre are little-known, with 12/7 favorables for Marshall and 13/10 and McIntyre (although he was at 38/12 in his district). The bad news for Burr? He's barely doing better than them, with 31/19 favorables (meaning 50% don't know him or have no opinion).
• NY-Sen-B: Marist dribbles out the Senate half of its newest New York poll today (Gov was yesterday), and it finds a super-tight race in the Dem primary in wake of yesterday's sorta-kinda entry by Carolyn Maloney: Maloney leads Kirsten Gillibrand, 38-37 (compared with a 36-31 Gillibrand lead in May). Gillibrand wins against both George Pataki (46-42, up from a 46-38 deficit last time) and Peter King (48-32). Marist doesn't do general election head-to-heads with Maloney, although for some reason they poll a GOP primary between Pataki and King (51-36 for Pataki) despite the decreasing likelihood that either of them run.
Also of interest: Bill Clinton will be appearing at a Maloney fundraiser scheduled for July 20. Clinton isn't wading into the race with an endorsement at this point, though; this was in the works long before Maloney announced her run, as payback for Maloney's 2008 primary support for Hillary Clinton, and he also headlined a Gillibrand fundraiser in March.
• PA-Sen: Pat Toomey got another endorsement from one of the more conservative members of Pennsylvania's House GOP delegation: PA-09's Bill Shuster.
• AL-Gov: The Democratic field in the governor's race in Alabama seems to be solidifying; the last question mark, Supreme Court Chief Justice Sue Bell Cobb, announced that she won't be running. With a lot of establishment figures waiting on the fence to see if an alternative to Rep. Artur Davis and Ag Comm. Ron Sparks shows up, expect them to start choosing sides soon. Davis, meanwhile, has been staffing up with some key political players, adding Joey Ceci and David Mowery to his team (who managed the successful campaigns of freshman Reps. Parker Griffith and Bobby Bright).
• CA-Gov: Sure, California's an expensive state, but Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman have reported gigantic hauls even by the Golden State's outsized standards. Brown raised $7.3 million in the year's first half, while Whitman raised $6.5 million. Steve Poizner and Gavin Newsom raised huge sums and are still far behind -- Poizner raised $1.3 million and loaned himself another $4 million, while Newsom raised $1.6 million, much of it online.
• MN-Gov: The tradmed seems to be intent today on talking up Norm Coleman's next logical step as being running for Governor of Minnesota, although Minnesota reporters and politicians in the know are trying to point out the sheer ridiculousness of that idea. (If Norm's going to be doing any running soon, it's running away from the FBI, as they investigate his links to Nasser Kazeminy.)
• RI-Gov: The Democratic primary for the open Rhode Island Governor's seat was looking to be a three-way slugfest, but Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts yesterday announced that she would run for re-election instead of for Gov. Although she had started staffing up for the race, she couldn't have been encouraged by poll numbers which showed her at a disadvantage with likely opponents Treasurer Frank Caprio and AG Patrick Lynch.
• SC-Gov: Gov. Mark Sanford seems to have taken a few steps backwards this week. A snap poll from yesterday by SUSA now finds 69% of South Carolinians saying resign, as opposed to 28% saying stay. 63% say they have "no trust" in Sanford. Here's an interesting red flag: only 20% say Lt. Gov/party boy Andre Bauer is "completely prepared" to become Governor, with 38% saying "somewhat prepared" and 34% saying "not prepared."
• WI-Gov: Real estate developer and ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, who held WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 before losing narrowly to Russ Feingold, announced his gubernatorial candidacy yesterday. Neumann's entry had been widely anticipated; he'll face off against Milwaukee Co. Executive Scott Walker in the GOP primary.
• CA-45: With Rep. Mary Bono Mack having defected on the cap-and-trade vote, the rightosphere has been calling for her head. Their favored replacement, term-limited state Senator Dennis Hollingsworth, quickly said "no" to a primary challenge, so their wish-list has turned to ex-state Sens. Jim Battin and Ray Haynes and ex-state Rep. Bonnie Garcia.
• IL-14: A second GOP challenger got into the race against Rep. Bill Foster, although this guy doesn't sound like he'll pose much of a threat to Ethan Hastert for the nom. Jeff Danklefsen hasn't run for office before and is "maintenance manager for a property management company."
• LA-03: The Hill reported last week that Democratic efforts to find a replacement to Rep. Charlie Melancon have focused on state Rep. Gary Smith, who was going to run for the open seat in 2004 but deferred to Melancon. State Rep. Fred Mills was also interested, but state Rep. Damon Baldone, who might be the highest-profile candidate, is about to run in a special election for a state Senate seat and is unlikely to follow that with a U.S. House run.
• PA-06: With the 2nd quarter just wrapped up, look for lots of financial reports to start getting leaked. Here's a nice place to start: Doug Pike, in the 6th, is looking at a haul of over $500K for the quarter, thanks a recent D.C. fundraiser starring Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy.
• WI-08: We're building up a backlog of Republicans trying to take on Rep. Steve Kagen. Businessman Reid Ribble jumped into the field, joining Door Co. Supervisor Marc Savard and Brown Co. Supervisor Andy Williams.
• WV-02: With some prodding from the DCCC, Gov. Joe Manchin's former general counsel, Carte Goodwin, is looking into challenging Rep. Shelly Capito Moore in the Charleston-based 2nd.
• CT-Sen: Gov. Jodi Rell just signed into law an important piece of legislation (and, in doing so, reduced her own power): from now on, in the event of a Senatorial vacancy, the void will be filled by a fast special election instead of a gubernatorial appointment. The farcical Rod Blagojevich affair in Illinois was apparently the genesis for this new law.
• KS-Sen: Rep. Todd Tiahrt, facing a big primary fight for the GOP nomination against fellow Rep. Jerry Moran, got a key endorsement that will help him out-conservative his red-state colleague, from prominent anti-abortion group Kansans for Life. Moran, meanwhile, got another establishment endorsement of questionable utility to the Kansas electorate, from South Dakota Sen. John Thune.
• NC-Sen: Insider Advantage polled Richard Burr's approvals, and like many other pollsters (including PPP, the messenger that the Burr campaign has chosen to attack), found that Burr's approvals are low and his unknowns are possibly catastrophically high. Burr clocked in at 39/31 approval, with 30% with no opinion.
• NH-Sen: John Sununu Sr. now says that John Sununu Jr. will make a decision (or will have his daddy make a decision for him, more likely) "within a week or so" as to whether or not he'll run for Senate next year. Sr. also says that AG Kelly Ayotte will step aside if Jr. runs, which may be news to Ayotte. GOP insiders seem to think that odds are against Sununu running.
• OH-Sen: Rob Portman, G.W. Bush's former trade rep and OMB Director, has taken on a strange approach to selling himself to voters: that he's a consummate Washington insider, going so far as to say that he knows "where the bodies are buried" (way to write the opposition's advertisements word-for-word for them!). In a state where there's a lot of populist indignation over job losses and outsourcing, emphasizing your technocratic elitism is somewhere past tone-deaf and out in the realm of political malpractice.
• PA-Sen: More signs that the party is finally coalescing around Pat Toomey as nominee: another endorsement from one its sitting Reps., Joe Pitts. (Pitts is probably the most conservative GOPer left in the PA delegation, so no surprise here.)
• WV-Sen: With 91-year-old Robert Byrd still in the hospital, Gov. Joe Manchin sought to tamp down speculation that he was looking into potential replacement Senators (such as ex-Gov. Gaston Caperton).
• IL-Gov: Bob Schillerstrom became the third Republican this week to announce his gubernatorial candidacy. The DuPage County Board chairman had had an exploratory committee open for several months, so this was expected. A 4th entrant, State Sen. Kirk Dillard, also from Chicago's western suburbs, says he'll announce his candidacy on July 8.
• MI-Gov: A third Democratic candidate got into the governor's race today: state Rep. (and former state Senator) Alma Wheeler Smith. Smith, who's the only African-American in the field, also ran in the gubernatorial primary in 2002.
• NJ-Gov: Strategic Vision polled the New Jersey governor's race; no surprises here, as they found Chris Christie beating Jon Corzine 51-39. Christie was also busy yesterday in Washington testifying before the House on the no-bid monitoring contracts that Christie awarded while US Attorney (including to his former boss, John Ashcroft); look for this to become a prime issue in the race (if Corzine has even half-a-clue how to campaign).
• NM-Gov, NM-02: Ex-Rep. Steve Pearce, last seen getting annihilated in last year's Senate race, says he's pushing back his announcement on whether he'll run for governor, for his old House seat, or something else to somewhere between July 20 and July 27.
• PA-Gov: Here's one state where the gubernatorial field is actually managing to get smaller: Lehigh County Executive Don Cunningham opted out of the Democratic primary race (and said that he isn't interested in the Lt. Gov. slot). This may give a small boost to Philly-area businessman Tom Knox, as the Dem side's two biggest-names, Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato and state Auditor Jack Wagner are both from the Pittsburgh area.
• CA-10: Rep. Ellen Tauscher was finally confirmed as Undersecretary of State last night, after Sen. Jon Kyl dropped his hold on her. (She's also getting married on Saturday, so it's a big week.) Tauscher's last day in the House is today, so this means the wheels are now officially in motion for the CA-10 special election.
• FL-12: Looks like the GOP will have a primary in the race to replace Rep. Adam Putnam, depsite their efforts to grease the skids for former state Rep. Dennis Ross. Polk Co. Commissioner Randy Wilkinson has been taking steps to enter the race as well.
• LA-03: Here's a potential Dem contender for the potentially open seat currently occupied by Rep. Charlie Melancon, who hadn't been mentioned in previous discussions (either from SSP or Roll Call or The Hill): Steve Angelle, who heads the state Natural Resources Department and used to be President of St. Martin Parish.
• SC-04: Rep. Bob Inglis is taking an unusual approach to a potentially bruising primary fight in 2010: instead of trying to out-conservative his opponents, he's saying the GOP needs to "lose the stinking rot of self-righteousness." In a Washington Wire interview, he said that the Mark Sanford Experience shows that "This may be an opportunity to extend a little grace to other people, to realize that maybe it's not 100% this way or that way," and referred to the Bob Inglis who was a zealous Clinton impeachment manager in 1998 as "Bob Inglis 1.0," who was a "'self-righteous' expletive."
• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton announced that he'll be resigning his job on July 10 in order to campaign full-time in his primary challenge against Rep. Steve Cohen. Since Herenton has tried to resign (and changed his mind) at least once before, after five increasingly rocky terms in office, this sounds more like a relief to Herenton instead of giving something up.
• DCCC: The DCCC is running radio spots over the July 4 weekend against seven vulnerable House GOPers: Ken Calvert, Charlie Dent, Jim Gerlach, Dan Lungren, Mike McCaul, Lee Terry, and Joe Wilson. They're getting attacked for voting for war supplementals during the Bush administration and now happening to vote against them now that a Demmycrat is in charge.
• The Tubes: Hotline On Call compares and contrasts the mellifluous email stylings of Gov. Sanford with the SMS billet-doux of Detroit ex-Mayor Kilpatrick. This outlines the foundational divide between email and texting: in SMS you automatically sound crazier, but it also prevents you from banging out divinity school dropout diatribes about First Corinthians. (Ben)
There was a brief Jim Gerlach-for-Senate boomlet in the weeks following Arlen Specter's party switch, when establishment GOP figures suddenly realized that they were going to have the Specter vs. Pat Toomey battle in the general instead of the closed GOP primary and that they might want a more palatable alternative. That seems to have gradually dissipated over the intervening months (as seen by John Cornyn's recent campaign contribution to Toomey), and today Gerlach made it clear he won't be running in the Senate primary:
"That is pretty much off the table," Gerlach, in an interview, said of the idea of a Senate run, which has lingered as a possibility since U.S. Sen. Arlen Specter switched to the Democratic Party in late April.
Asked if he would definitely run either for the House or governor of Pennsylvania, Gerlach responded: "I think that would be safe to say."
Gerlach says that he'll decide next month whether to pursue the Governor's race (where he already has an exploratory committee open, although he may have a difficult shot against AG Tom Corbett, compounded by splitting the Philly suburban vote with former US Attorney Pat Meehan) or run for re-election in increasingly blue PA-06.
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 50
Pat Toomey (R): 39
Undecided: 7
Joe Sestak (D): 41
Pat Toomey (R): 35
Undecided: 18
(MoE: ±5%)
This is the second half of the Rasmussen poll from yesterday which tested the Dem primary. I don't really love it when pollsters dribble out results over the course of several days... though I'm sure that if I were in the polling business myself, I'd do exactly the same thing. Anyhow, this survey shows what we all know: Pat Toomey is a Dead Man.
• MO-Sen: In an e-mail to local TV affiliate KY3, former Treasurer Sarah Steelman seems to be walking back her comments to the Hill yesterday, not wanting to appear to shut the door on a GOP primary bid against Rep. Roy Blunt. She says she's still "very seriously considering" it.
• PA-Sen: Here's an interesting development: a state legislator in Pennsylvania has introduced a bill to switch Pennyslvania from closed to open primaries. This seems like a nakedly pro-Specter bill: it would have helped him survive his GOP primary against Pat Toomey, and now it would have the opposite effect, helping him survive a Democratic primary against Joe Sestak by opening the door to independents and moderate Republicans.
• AK-AL: Unless the indictment fairy has a present for him soon, Rep. Don Young looks to have a much easier go of it in 2010 than last cycle. Not only is his Dem challenger ex-state House minority leader Ethan Berkowitz likely to run for governor instead, but now it sounds like his primary opponents, Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell and ex-state Rep. Gabrielle LeDoux, aren't going to run again either. Unlike last time, Parnell would need to give up his LG job to run, and he may instead be running for Governor if Sarah Palin declines to run again. Businessman Andrew Halcro, who ran for Governor as an independent in 2006, also sounds likely to run for Governor rather than challenge Young. State Senator Hollis French, who sounded like a likely Governor candidate for the Dems until Berkowitz showed up, may be the Dems' best bet.
• AL-07: The field to replace Artur Davis got bigger, as Jefferson Co. Councilor Shelia Smoot officially launched her campaign. She joins lawyer Terri Sewell, state Rep. Earl Hilliard Jr., and former Selma mayor James Perkins in the primary (which is the only real race in this D+18 district).
• CA-11: Contra Costa County Sheriff Warren Rupf turned down the chance to run as a Republican in the upcoming CA-10 special election, but that seemed to ignite his interest, as now he's considering running in 2010 in next-door CA-11 against sophomore Rep. Jerry McNerney, at R+1 a more plausible race than the D+11 CA-10.
• FL-08: Republican state Representative Steve Precourt is considering making the race against Rep. Alan Grayson in this R+2 Orlando-area seat. His strongest words seemed to be reserved for likely primary opponent Orange County Mayor Rich Crotty, who Precourt doesn't see as a "fresh face" or viable, although Precourt said he'd stand down if former state Sen. Daniel Webster got in.
• ID-01: The Republican field in ID-01 is filling up, as state House majority leader Ken Roberts announced he's in. He'll have to get past veteran and McCain ally Vaughn Ward before facing off against Rep. Walt Minnick, though. Ex-Rep. Bill Sali occasionally makes threatening noises about a rematch, but he hasn't said anything definite.
• NH-02: Former state Rep. Bob Giuda (not to be confused with Frank Guinta, running in NH-01) is the first GOPer to launch an exploratory committee in the race to fill Rep. Paul Hodes' open seat. He may still be joined by the 2008 candidate, Jennifer Horn, and, more remotely, a return by ex-Rep. Charlie Bass.
• NY-23: Douglas Hoffman, the head of a local accounting firm, has thrown his hat into the GOP nomination contest for the special election to replace Rep. John McHugh. Republicans also announced their schedule for picking a nominee, involving four regional meetings around the districts where candidates would speak to the Republican county committee members over a two- to four-week period once there's an official vacancy.
• PA-03: Freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, representing the swingy R+3 district based in Erie (won by John McCain by 62 votes), has managed to secure a hot ticket in view of its self-imposed membership cap: she joined the Blue Dog Coalition.
• Redistricting: A petition drive is underway in Florida to get an initiative on the ballot for 2010 that, while not creating an independent redistricting campaign, would at least place some non-partisan limitations on the creation of House and legislative districts. Most of the money behind the petition drive is coming from Democrats, but two prominent Democrats aren't on board with the drive: Reps. Alcee Hastings and Corrine Brown, both of whom stand to inherit more difficult districts if they're made less convoluted.
• PA-Sen: Ex-Rep. Pat Toomey says that he raised $1 million in 60 days toward his Senate run, with more than 11,000 donors. It's still a drop in the bucket compared with the bankrolls of Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak, but it ought to help dissuade anyone else from jumping into the GOP primary. Another tidbit that ought to discourage any Republican line-crashers: $5,000 of that money came from John Cornyn's PAC, suggesting that he's done looking for another candidate and is bringing establishment power to bear behind Toomey.
• FL-Sen: It's not much of a surprise, considering they're close neighbors, but Rep. Kendrick Meek nailed down the endorsements of two key members of Florida's House delegation -- Debbie Wasserman Schultz and Ron Klein -- which will come in handy if he does wind up facing off against Corrine Brown in the primary.
• LA-Sen: Democratic New Orleans city councilor Arnie Fielkow decided, after some speculation, not to wade into the Louisiana Senate race. More plausible would be a challenge to Rep. Anh Cao in LA-02, as Fielkow is well-known in NoLa but has no statewide presence, but Fielkow also declined that, leading to speculation he may be eyeing the next mayor's race instead.
• GA-Gov: With an eye on Roy Barnes, Ed Kilgore takes aim at the claim that Georgia governors have a long track record of failure when it comes to comebacks. It turns out that past probably isn't prologue. (D)
• TX-Gov: We're reluctant to ascribe a whole lotta meaning to the phrasing of this particular letter, but Kay Bailey Hutchison seems to be moving pretty explicitly toward making official her run for Governor. Glenn Thrush points to a letter sent to potential donors saying "I am running for Governor."
• AZ-05: Is Congress ready for its first gamer (or at least its first out-of-the-closet gamer)? Jim Ward, the former president of video game maker LucasArts, announced that he'll be running for the GOP nomination to go up against Rep. Harry Mitchell. Ward brings a lot of wealth to the table, but he'll have an uphill fight against former Maricopa County Treasurer David Schweikert, who lost the 2008 election to Mitchell by 9 points and is looking for a rematch.
• TX-32: Dems have landed a good candidate in TX-32 to go up against Rep. Pete Sessions: Grieg Raggio, an attorney and husband to Judge Lorraine Raggio. The 32nd, in north Dallas, is still a red district but has seen rapidly declining GOP numbers, both for Sessions and at the presidential level, and is down to R+8.
• NY-AG: Nassau Co. Exec Tom Suozzi published an editorial in the New York Times where he publicly discusses having changed his mind on the gay marriage issue (he's now for it). With New York one of the few states where gay marriage has become an issue with majority support, Suozzi looks to be repositioning himself for, well, something (probably, as often rumored, Attorney General, but maybe Governor if Andrew Cuomo continues to dither).
• Redistricting: The Hill has an interesting piece about redistricting; while it doesn't delve into too many specifics, it does shed some light on what districts the GOP is rushing to try to take back before they get strengthened for the Dems (like Bobby Bright's AL-02), and what districts are unlikely to draw top tier challengers because everyone is willing to sit back and wait for new open districts to pop up in 2012 (like Dina Titus's NV-03).
• Race Tracker: Benawu is already back doing what he does best: chronicling the Dems' efforts to field candidates in all 435 districts. Right now, we're still looking in 124 GOP-held districts (although, of course, it's still early in the cycle). Check out the RaceTracker 2010 wiki for more.
This is the first poll I've seen of the Pennsylvania governor's race; it's from Susquehanna, a Republican pollster (this poll doesn't seem to be taken on anyone's behalf, although the early May Senate trendlines are from a poll on behalf of pro-business PEG PAC), so take with salt as needed. As expected, it shows a very tight race, giving a slight edge to Republican AG Tom Corbett over Democratic Allegheny County Exec Dan Onorato. With very high undecideds, a lot of this seems to be about name recognition, and Corbett benefits by being a statewide official.
But, looking at geographical crosstabs, Onorato performs very well where he's well-known, giving him a lot of room to pull into the lead once he's better known. While Corbett actually leads 28/27 in the Dem-leaning Philadelphia suburbs, Onorato leads 51/29 in the Pittsburgh area, which is where both Corbett and Onorato are from. Also, bear in mind that this may not be the matchup in November 2010; on the Democratic side, there's also Auditor Jack Wagner (also from the Pittsburgh area), while for the GOP, there's former US Attorney Pat Meehan and Rep. Jim Gerlach (both from the Philly burbs).
On the Senate front, no surprises: Arlen Specter leads ex-Rep. Pat Toomey by a comfortable but not huge margin of 9, up from a gap of 6 in the previous Susquehanna poll. The most recent Quinnipiac poll from last week, as well as a month-old POS poll, both found a 9-point spread as well (although R2K and a month-old Quinnipiac found the margin over 20).
The poll also took a subsample of Democrats, and while they inexplicably didn't ask about the possible Specter/Joe Sestak matchup, they did ask whether should face a primary challenge to earn his rightful place in the party. Dems approved of the primary challenge, 63%-28%.
Arlen Specter (D-inc): 45
Jim Gerlach (R): 36
Undecided: 15
Joe Sestak (D): 37
Pat Toomey (R): 35
Undecided: 23
Joe Sestak (D): 36
Jim Gerlach (R): 30
Undecided: 30
(MoE: ±2.8%)
I still gag whenever I have to put a (D) after Arlen Specter's name, and I don't think I'm the only one. Specter's approval margin among both Dems and independents dropped a dozen points over the last month. And the ratio of Dems willing to vote for him fell from 85-4 to 73-10. These numbers are still pretty high, though, so is there enough discontent for Joe Sestak to get in?
Interestingly, Sestak & Jim Gerlach have almost identical approvals, yet Sestak starts with a six-point lead. That points up the natural advantage Dems hold over Republicans in Pennsylvania these days.
P.S. In a move sure to anger wingnuts already steamed about the NRSC's endorsement of Charlie Crist, Big John Cornyn said it was "premature" for the GOP to back Toomey, even though there are no other Republicans in the race (and the prospects of any getting in look slim).
• PA-Sen: Now that Rep. Steve Israel got chased out of the New York Senate race, the Dems have turned their negative-charm offensive to Rep. Joe Sestak in Pennsylvania. No phone call from the POTUS, apparently, but the DSCC and Bob Menendez are on the case. (Sestak has been dialing down the rhetoric on Arlen Specter in the last week, so he may already be arriving at this decision on own.) Meanwhile, on the GOP side of the ledger, the party seems reconciled to Pat Toomey's candidacy. They've stopped (publicly, at least) looking for a more moderate alternative to Toomey for the primary.
• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they're confident he'll run again.
• FL-Sen: He hadn't sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won't run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)
• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn't come to save them in the Senate race, they're starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and "Bush cabinet" isn't exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.
• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon's son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor's race. He's a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn't get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.
• NC-08: The NRCC's plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who's never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn't have made as much sense.)
• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who's currently the state GOP's "minority outreach director."
