Interestingly, Harry Reid's lead actually increased among registered voters -- from 42-34 in September to 43-32 today. Without Ashjian on the ballot, Angle still leads by the same margin among LVs, 47-45.
Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55
Joe DioGuardi (R): 41
Andrew Cuomo (D): 55
Carl Paladino (R): 41
Again, turnout is a factor here. Among RVs, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi by 60-33, and Cuomo stomps the repulsively vile Carl Paladino by 65-31. This poll also tested Chuck Schumer's re-election, and finds him up by 57-41 over Jay Townsend.
Scott McAdams (D): 22
Joe Miller (R): 38
Lisa Murkowski (I): 36
Craciun Research for the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (9/24-25, likely voters, no trend lines):
Scott McAdams (D): 19
Joe Miller (R): 30
Lisa Murkowski (I): 41
Nate Silver, however, hits on some problems with the methodologies of both polls:
The issue with each of these polls, however, is that they made no particular accommodation to account for the fact that Ms. Murkowski will be a write-in candidate, as her name was mentioned alongside Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams.
Indeed, and as Nate later tweeted, perhaps the best approach that pollsters should take would be to ask voters if they're voting for McAdams, Miller, or a write-in. That would then be followed by a prompt to ask who they're writing in (rather than offering Murkowski as a choice). However, this methodology would be difficult for a robo-pollster to accommodate (though it shouldn't be too hard for Opinion Research or Craciun, who use live interviewers). After all, the way these pollsters are framing the choice doesn't reflect the realities of the ballot.
It's also worth noting that Scott McAdams only went up on the air last night for the first time, so add that as another reason why these polls may represent something of a high-water mark for Murkowski that she is unlikely to obtain in November.
Meanwhile, CNN/Time also polled the gubernatorial race...
Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38
Sean Parnell (R-inc): 57
Interestingly, Berkowitz's margin is actually slightly worse among registered voters (at 58-36). The guy is tenacious, but this looks pretty tough.
Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
Ken Buck (R): 49
Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.
John Hickenlooper (D): 47
Dan Maes (R): 21
Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29
Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn't boost Hickenlooper's score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo's 26% under that sample. If only he'd be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet...
Chris Coons (D): 55
Christine O'Donnell (R): 39
Chris Coons (D): 37
Mike Castle (R): 55
Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would've been dominating right now if only he hadn't been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O'Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons' lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.
Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45
Ron Johnson (R): 51
The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.
Tom Barrett (D): 42
Scott Walker (R): 53
Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.