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Opinion Research

Poll Roundup: 10/13

by: James L.

Wed Oct 13, 2010 at 8:03 PM EDT

I'm your poll pusher. 19 new ones:

  • AZ-Sen: Behavior Research Center (10/1-10, likely voters):

    Rodney Glassman (D): 22
    John McCain (R-inc): 56
    (MoE: ±4.7%)

  • DE-Sen: SurveyUSA for the University of Delaware Center for Political Communication (10/11-12, likely voters):

    Chris Coons (D): 54
    Christine O'Donnell (R): 33
    Undecided: 9
    (MoE: ±2.1%)

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Chris Coons (D): 57 (55)
    Christine O'Donnell (R): 38 (39)
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • FL-Sen: Quinnipiac (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/23-28 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (18)
    Marco Rubio (R): 44 (46)
    Charlie Crist (I): 30 (33)
    (MoE: ±3%)

    Susquehanna (10/6-10, likely voters, 9/2-7 in parens):

    Kendrick Meek (D): 22 (23)
    Marco Rubio (R): 45 (43)
    Charlie Crist (I): 29 (29)
    (MoE: ±2.9%)

  • NV-Sen: Suffolk (10/7-11, likely voters):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 45
    Sharron Angle (R): 43
    Scott Ashjian (T): 2
    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • PA-Sen: Bennett Petts and Normington for Joe Sestak (10/4-6, likely voters):

    Joe Sestak (D): 45
    Pat Toomey (R): 46
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WA-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/10-14 in parens):

    Patty Murray (D-inc): 51 (53)
    Dino Rossi (R): 43 (44)
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WI-Sen, WI-Gov: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters, 9/17-21 in parens):

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 44 (45)
    Ron Johnson (R): 52 (41)

    Tom Barrett (D): 44 (42)
    Scott Walker (R): 52 (53)
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • WV-Sen: Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/8-12, likely voters):

    Joe Manchin (D): 44
    John Raese (R): 44
    Jesse Johnson (MP): 5
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

  • RI-Gov: Quest Research (10/4-6, likely voters, 9/15-17 in parens):

    Frank Caprio (D):  37 (36)
    Lincoln Chafee (I): 33 (24)
    John Robitaille (R): 22 (13)
    Ken Block (M): 2 (2)
    (MoE: ±4.4%)

  • CA-11: Lake Research Partners for Jerry McNerney (9/21-25, likely voters):

    Jerry McNerney (D-inc): 45
    David Harmer (R): 35
    David Christensen (AIP): 5
    (MoE: ±4.4)

  • GA-02: Public Opinion Strategies for Mike Keown (9/27-28, likely voters, August in parens):

    Sanford Bishop (D-inc): 47 (50)
    Mike Keown (R): 46 (44)
    (MoE: ±4.9%)

  • NJ-12: Monmouth University (10/9-12, likely voters):

    Rush Holt! (D): 51
    Scott Sipprelle (R): 46
    (MoE: ±3.9%)

  • NY-01: Siena (10/6-11, likely voters):

    Tim Bishop (D-inc): 51
    Randy Altschuler (R): 39
    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-19: Siena (10/5-10, likely voters):

    John Hall (D-inc): 43
    Nan Hayworth (R): 46
    (MoE: ±4%)

  • NY-23: Siena (10/5-7, likely voters):

    Bill Owens (D-inc): 42
    Matt Doheny (R): 31
    Doug Hoffman (C): 15

    After Hoffman voters told he suspended campaign/endorsed Doheny:
    Bill Owens (D-inc): 44
    Matt Doheny (R): 39
    Doug Hoffman (C): 1
    (MoE: ±4%)

  • PA-11: Franklin & Marshall College for Times-Shamrock Newspapers (10/5-10, likely voters):

    Paul Kanjorski (D-inc): 40
    Lou Barletta (R): 47
    (MoE: ±4.8%)

  • PA-12: Susquehanna for the Tribune-Review (10/9-10, likely voters):

    Mark Critz (D-inc): 43
    Tim Burns (R): 36
    (MoE: ±4.9%)
  • Discuss :: (83 Comments)

    MO, NV, NY: CNN/Time Roundup

    by: James L.

    Wed Oct 06, 2010 at 6:02 PM EDT

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (10/1-5, likely voters):

    MO-Sen:

    Robin Carnahan (D): 40
    Roy Blunt (R): 53
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    NV-Sen, NV-Gov (9/10-14 in parens):

    Harry Reid (D-inc): 40 (41)
    Sharron Angle (R): 42 (42)
    Scott Ashjian (T): 7 (5)

    Rory Reid (D): 33 (31)
    Brian Sandoval (R): 56 (58)
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Interestingly, Harry Reid's lead actually increased among registered voters -- from 42-34 in September to 43-32 today. Without Ashjian on the ballot, Angle still leads by the same margin among LVs, 47-45.

    NY-Sen-B, NY-Gov:

    Kirsten Gillibrand (D-inc): 55
    Joe DioGuardi (R): 41

    Andrew Cuomo (D): 55
    Carl Paladino (R): 41
    (MoE: ±4%)

    Again, turnout is a factor here. Among RVs, Gillibrand leads DioGuardi by 60-33, and Cuomo stomps the repulsively vile Carl Paladino by 65-31. This poll also tested Chuck Schumer's re-election, and finds him up by 57-41 over Jay Townsend.

    Discuss :: (42 Comments)

    AK-Sen: Murkowski Drawing Plenty of Votes, But...

    by: James L.

    Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 8:14 PM EDT

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/24-28, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Scott McAdams (D): 22
    Joe Miller (R): 38
    Lisa Murkowski (I): 36
    (MoE: ±3%)

    Craciun Research for the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium (9/24-25, likely voters, no trend lines):

    Scott McAdams (D): 19
    Joe Miller (R): 30
    Lisa Murkowski (I): 41
    (MoE: ±5.7%)

    Nate Silver, however, hits on some problems with the methodologies of both polls:

    The issue with each of these polls, however, is that they made no particular accommodation to account for the fact that Ms. Murkowski will be a write-in candidate, as her name was mentioned alongside Mr. Miller and Mr. McAdams.

    Indeed, and as Nate later tweeted, perhaps the best approach that pollsters should take would be to ask voters if they're voting for McAdams, Miller, or a write-in. That would then be followed by a prompt to ask who they're writing in (rather than offering Murkowski as a choice). However, this methodology would be difficult for a robo-pollster to accommodate (though it shouldn't be too hard for Opinion Research or Craciun, who use live interviewers). After all, the way these pollsters are framing the choice doesn't reflect the realities of the ballot.

    It's also worth noting that Scott McAdams only went up on the air last night for the first time, so add that as another reason why these polls may represent something of a high-water mark for Murkowski that she is unlikely to obtain in November.

    Meanwhile, CNN/Time also polled the gubernatorial race...

    Ethan Berkowitz (D): 38
    Sean Parnell (R-inc): 57
    (MoE: ±3%)

    Interestingly, Berkowitz's margin is actually slightly worse among registered voters (at 58-36). The guy is tenacious, but this looks pretty tough.

    Discuss :: (33 Comments)

    CO, DE, WI: New CNN/Time Polls

    by: James L.

    Wed Sep 22, 2010 at 9:40 PM EDT

    Opinion Research for CNN/Time (9/17-21, likely voters, no trend lines):

    CO-Sen:

    Michael Bennet (D-inc): 44
    Ken Buck (R): 49
    Undecided: 3
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Among registered voters, Bennet has a 47-44 lead.

    CO-Gov:

    John Hickenlooper (D): 47
    Dan Maes (R): 21
    Tom Tancredo (ACP): 29
    Undecided: 1
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Interestingly, a registered voter sample doesn't boost Hickenlooper's score much at all; he scores 48% to Tancredo's 26% under that sample. If only he'd be able to rub off some of his magic on Bennet...

    DE-Sen:

    Chris Coons (D): 55
    Christine O'Donnell (R): 39
    Undecided: 2

    Chris Coons (D): 37
    Mike Castle (R): 55
    Undecided: 2
    (MoE: ±3.5%)

    Amusingly, CNN/TIME decided to rub some salt into the wounds of the NRSC, finding that Castle would've been dominating right now if only he hadn't been teabagged to death by the brain-dead GOP base. Where Castle dominated among independents and stole 33% of Democrats, O'Donnell loses indies by 7% and only takes 6% of Democrats (while losing 15% of Republicans to Coons). As for the RV numbers, Coons' lead expands to 59-34 without the likely voter screen.

    WI-Sen:

    Russ Feingold (D-inc): 45
    Ron Johnson (R): 51
    Undecided: 2
    (MoE: ±3%)

    The enthusiasm gap is, unsurprisingly, rough here: among registered voters, Feingold leads by 48-46.

    WI-Gov:

    Tom Barrett (D): 42
    Scott Walker (R): 53
    Undecided: 2
    (MoE: ±3%)

    Barrett even trails among registered voters, though by a slimmer 48-45 margin.

    Discuss :: (90 Comments)

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