Following attempts to create seats with Democratic PVIs in Nebraska and Kansas I've continued south into Oklahoma. Oklahoma has been trending Republican at the presidential level (and most levels really) and Obama received only 34% of the vote state-wide whilst not winning a single county. Whilst the following map would be impractical in the real world, it demonstrates that it is still theoretically possible to create a Democratic leaning congressional district in Oklahoma.
1st CD (Blue) 54.9% Obama, 50/29/16/7 (W/B/H/N)
The Democratic CD is centred on linking the urban centres of Oklahoma City and Tulsa via Stillwater. A short arm reaches down to Norman and a long arm stretches all the way back to eastern Oklahoma picking up those counties (or at least certain precincts thereof) which still vote reasonably Democratic at the presidential level. This district also answers the unasked question of whether it is possible to draw a majority-minority district in Oklahoma with a surprising (to me) yes.
2nd CD (Green) 29.6% Obama, 76/6/8/4 (W/B/H/N)
The more republican parts of Oklahoma County and some nearby area areas.
3rd CD (Dark Magenta) 29.2% Obama, 75/4/6/8 (W/B/H/N)
The rest of Tulsa, the area inscribed by CD1, and a couple of counties north of Tulsa.
4th CD (Red) 31.6% Obama, 69/3/4/17 (W/B/H/N)
Eastern Oklahoma including Little Dixie. Fairly similar to the current 2nd CD.
5th CD (Gold) 27.4% Obama, 74/5/10/6 (W/B/H/N)
Western Oklahoma.
The four states this week for the Census 2010 data dump are Illinois, Oklahoma, South Dakota, and Texas. South Dakota has only one congressional district and Texas I'm reserving for its own special in-depth post which will look at changes in racial composition in each district over the decade (and Texas isn't out yet today, so it's a moot point), so here are just Illinois and Oklahoma. The Illinois target (based on the drop to 18 seats) is 712,813. (Check out the depopulation on Chicago's South Side in IL-01 and IL-02. Bobby Rush and Jesse Jackson Jr.'s districts already include small amounts of suburbs, but they're going to need to take on significantly more.)
District
Population
Deviation
IL-01
587,596
(125,217)
IL-02
602,758
(110,055)
IL-03
663,381
(49,432)
IL-04
601,156
(111,657)
IL-05
648,610
(64,203)
IL-06
657,131
(55,682)
IL-07
638,105
(74,708)
IL-08
738,840
26,027
IL-09
628,859
(83,954)
IL-10
650,425
(62,388)
IL-11
759,445
46,632
IL-12
666,459
(46,354)
IL-13
773,095
60,282
IL-14
840,956
128,143
IL-15
681,580
(31,233)
IL-16
718,791
5,978
IL-17
634,792
(78,021)
IL-18
665,723
(47,090)
IL-19
672,930
(39,883)
Total:
12,830,632
In case you were wondering about population growth in the few Illinois districts where the state's growth was concentrated, much of that growth is Hispanic. For instance, IL-08 went from 11% Hispanic in 2000 to 17% Hispanic in 2010. IL-11 went from 7% to 11% Hispanic. IL-13 went from 5% to 11% Hispanic, while IL-14 went from 18% to 25% Hispanic. (Perhaps not coincidentally, we lost seats in three of these districts, as turnout in 2010 was much whiter and older than in 2008.)
Oklahoma (which stays at 5, and where the growth has been remarkably consistent across CD boundaries) has a target of 750,270.
11:00pm: Time for some fresh thread.
10:55pm: Hahahhahahahahahha! The AP calls FL-Gov for none other than Rick Scott! Fuckin' amazing!
10:53pm: Over in FL-24, is Sandy Adams this cycle's Alice Kryzan? Diebel attacked Miller on immigration, Miller attacked Diebel on crazy, and Adams is walking through the hole in the middle. Still, it's a very close race and not yet called.
10:49pm: Speaking of Boyd, the AP just called the race for him. What a crazy race.
10:47pm: The hamsters have been spinning in their wheels furiously to keep the ol' mainframe running, which is still calling for about a 2-point Scott win and a 3-point Boyd escape.
10:42pm: We have a winner in FL-17! The AP has called the race for state Sen. Frederica Wilson, with 35% of the vote. Self-funder Rudy Moise was a distant second with 16%. He spent over a million bucks to get fewer than 6,000 votes (so far).
10:37pm: Rick Scott has now nudged up to 47%. If he hangs on, Tom Jensen and the gang over at PPP are going to look like geniuses.
10:34pm: Annette Taddeo, who ran a spirited campaign last cycle in FL-18, is running again this year for County Commissioner in Dade Co. Unfortunately, things don't look so hot for her right now - she is in third place (look for District 8) in a race where the top two candidates advance.
10:28pm: We're up to 67% in VT-Gov, Racine leads Markowitz by 8 votes. Shumlin trails by 50 or so votes. Basically, every update of this race has given us a new leader.
10:20pm: We're now up to 81% reporting in Florida, and Rick Scott leads by 46-43. Note the disparity between the AP and Miami-Dade's website in terms of precincts reporting: AP says 380, Miami-Dade says 526, but both show the same raw vote total. I've learned that when in doubt, the AP is usually wrong!
10:13pm: A perfect tie! Racine and Shumlin are at 9,440 votes each. Markowitz is about 200 votes behind.
10:07pm: Over in Vermont, Peter Shumlin had the lead briefly, but now it's Doug Racine over Markowitz by 34 votes. (52% reporting)
10:06pm: The AP has called FL-25's GOP primary for David Rivera. He's up 64, to Crespo's 25 and Cancio's 10. Democratic oppo researchers are doing happy dances.
10:05pm: Eagle-eyed watchers may have noticed that the Miami-Dade elections office is about 300 precincts further along than the AP (526, instead of 213). McCollum needs to make up about 40K votes statewide, and the further-along Miami votes only help him make up about 5,000, though. Anyway, according to the AP, 72% are reporting, and it's still 47-43 in favor of Scott.
9:59pm: It's still a small Sandy Adams lead on the GOP side in the 24th. She leads Karen Diebel 30-29, with Craig Miller at 27, with 93% reporting. On the Dem side, let's Partyka like it's 2010. Suzanne Kosmas beat even-more-conservaDem Paul Partyka 78-22.
9:57pm: Did we mention there were primaries in the open seat FL-12? On the Dem side, Lori Edwards won 75-25 over Doug Tudor, the 2008 candidate and the preferred candidate of a few vocal souls in the netroots. On the GOP side, Dennis Ross's performance against some teabagging dude J. Lindsey wasn't overwhelming: 69-31.
9:55pm: Allen Boyd is starting to put a little more distance between him and Al Lawson, if 52-48 can be considered distant. That's with 86% reporting, and with mostly rural white counties left (Boyd's stronghold) to report.
9:51pm: Things are starting to look kind of locked in, in the Florida GOP gubernatorial race. With 65% reporting, it's still 47 for Lex LuthorBizarro World Peter Garrett Rick Scott, 43 for Bill McCollum. There's still 2/3ds of Miami-Dade County left, though, where McCollum is doing well (up 63-30), presumably because of his support in the Cuban community over his less-insane immigration stance.
9:47pm: In the wildly swinging Vermont gubernatorial race (if you go by percentages instead of raw votes), Deb Markowitz has pulled back into the lead by about 65 votes over Doug Racine. It's 26-26 with Shumlin at 24 and Dunne at 19.
9:44pm: One more call to mention: the AP called OK-05 for outsiderish social con Jim Lankford, who beats Club for Growth stooge Kevin Calvey 65-35.
9:41pm: The AP called the Dem field in FL-25 for Joe Garcia, who beats Luis Meurice 77-23. Still no call on the GOP side, but David Rivera's at 64.
9:39pm: No call yet in the GOP field in FL-24, but it has one thing in common with FL-08: the NRCC's prize pick finished embarrassingly back. In the 24th, Craig Miller is in 3rd at 27 (with Sandy Adams at 31 and Karen Diebel at 30). And in the 8th (which is called), Bruce O'Donoghue finished 5th, at _7_, behind Daniel Webster at 40, Todd Long at 23, Kurt Kelly at 14, and heretofore unknown P. Sullivan at 11.
9:37pm: Somewhere in there, the Republican primary in FL-05 got called for the Nuge. That's Richard Nugent, not Ted, the Hernando Co. Sheriff who beats random teabagger Jason Sager 62-38 for the right to succeed Ginny Brown-Waite. He'll face Dem Jim Piccillo in the general.
9:35pm: With 57% now reporting statewide in Florida, we're still holding at a 47-43 lead for Rick Scott. That's with 10 for Mike McAllister, a pretty good showing for Some Dude, although he pretty much a priori has to be the least of three evils.
9:32pm: The mainframe at SSP Labs has finally laid its egg (extrapolating each county's results so far), and it predicts that Allen Boyd will continue to hold the lead and survive, by a not-so-convincing 52-48 margin. (He's currently up 51-49 over Al Lawson, says the AP.) By the way, who ever wins will face Steve Southerland; the AP has called the GOP field in the 2nd for him, with 48% out of a field of five.
9:30pm: In what's likely to not be the last lead change of the night, now Doug Racine leads the Dem pack in Vermont, with not quite 1/3 reporting. Racine's at 26, with Markowitz at 25 and Shumlin at 24. (Racine's edge is just 22 votes, so this'll be a game of inches all night.)
9:15pm: And in FL-Gov, Rick Scott leads by 3.6% with 55% of the vote in. The other hot race to watch is FL-24, where conservative state Rep. Sandy Adams leads Karen "Snakes in a Pool" Diebel by 1% with 90% reporting.
9:14pm: We're at 73% reporting in FL-02, and Allen Boyd's lead has dipped down to 51-49. The ticker tape is spewing out of the SSP Labs mainframe fast and furiously -- we'll let you know what our findings tell us in a few minutes.
RESULTS:
9:06pm: Move along, now, y'all. Over here. 9:04pm: "Out East" or so they say, with 18% reporting in Vermont, Markowitz has a 121-vote lead over Shumlin, who has a 6-vote lead over Racine. For those of you that prefer percentages, that's 26-25-25, with 19 for Dunne.
9:01pm: 39% reporting in OK-05 now, Jim Lankford continues to lead Kevin Calvey, now 61-39. First of several outsider upsets tonight?
8:57pm: All of Broward's reporting in FL-17, Wilson continues to hold her 33-16 lead. Broward is 26% of the district.
8:55pm: The AP's also called FL-08 for Daniel Webster, who's holding his 40-23 lead over Todd Long.
8:53pm: The AP's called the OK-02 runoff for Charles Thompson, who...has a $13k warchest. While that's better than Edmonds' $1300, it'll likely be no match for Dan Boren.
8:49pm: Bill McCollum is lagging Rick Scott just a little more in FL-Gov (R), with Scott now up 46-43. While McCollum's stronghold of Miami-Dade is only 0.1% reporting, let's not forget that around 40% of votes are cast early in Florida, and those have indeed reported.
8:47pm: Some early results coming through in Vermont. With 12% reporting, SoS Deb Markowitz has a narrow 28-25 lead over Lt. Gov Doug Racine; Shumlin and Dunne are close behind at 21 apiece.
8:44pm: Further down the peninsula, Daniel Webster leads Todd Long 40-23 in FL-08; Sandy Adams leads Karen Diebel 32-30 in FL-24, and "Road Rage" Rivera has 65 in FL-25. For the "Get to Congress Free" card in FL-17, Frederica Wilson has 33% to Rudy Moise's 16%. (The GOP isn't contesting this district in November.)
8:39pm: Another 200 precincts have rolled in down in Florida; Rick Scott continues to hold his 46-44 advantage for the GOP Gov nod. 57% reporting in FL-02, with Boyd seeing a little more daylight at 52-48 now. Alarmingly for him, only early votes have reported in Gadsden County, which is heavily-Democratic and majority-black.
8:38pm: In Oklahoma, Charles Thompson leads Daniel Edmonds 66-34 in OK-02 with about 10% reporting; Jim Lankford looks on track to upset establishment pick Kevin Calvey in OK-05, leading 58-42 with 9% reporting.
8:24pm: Wow. Allen Boyd only leads Al Lawson by 2% with 42% reporting.
8:21pm: Summerwind sails into the sunset. The AP has called the Dem Senate primary for Kendrick Meek.
8:18pm: Over in FL-24, Sandy Adams leads Karen "Snakes in a Pool" Diebel by 31-30 with 29% reporting.
8:11pm: We're up to 30% reporting in Florida, and Scott is still holding steady at 46-44 over McCollum. Meek leads Greene by 55-32. Oh, and hey: The AP has called FL-Sen (R) for Marco Rubio and FL-Gov (D) for Alex Sink.
8:05pm: Some early results in from Vermont -- Deb Markowitz, Matt Dunne, and Doug Racine are separated by a mere handful of votes.
7:57pm: Rick Scott's margin has tightened to 46-44, in part thanks to McCollum's strong performance in Miami-Dade, where the pocket protector-wielding dork is boasting 66% of the vote.
7:48pm: In the AP's hot early precinct action in FL-25, scumbucket David Rivera has 57% to Paul Crespo's 33% and Mariana Cancio's 10%.
7:42pm: We're up to 5.5% reporting in the Gov race, and Rick Scott's lead over Bill McCollum is now at 48-42. In the Senate race, Meek now leads Greene by 51-36.
7:36pm: Some early House primary results: Boyd leads Lawson 59-41 in FL-02. Richard Nugent's got a 60-40 lead over Pat Sager in FL-05. Dan Webster's at 40%, with a big lead over Todd Long in FL-08. In FL-24, Sandy Adams, Karen Diebel and Craig Miller are essentially locked in a three-way tie.
7:31pm: So much for the Florida DoE's futile plan to hold the results until 8pm... The Associated Press has already got some early precinct action: Meek is up 48%-38% on Greene, and Rick Scott leads Bill McCollum by 50-40!
7:24pm: And we're off! Only, Florida is holding their results until 8pm...
RESULTS:
Polls close in less than an hour in select locations, so let's hear some predictions! Can Bill McCollum beat free-spending Rick Scott by virtue of being less unlikeable in the Florida governor's race? Can Jeff Greene sail his vomit-covered yacht through the rapidly closing window in the Florida Senate race? Can J.D. Hayworth help you get free government grant money?
Closing times tonight:
• Florida: 7 pm ET (except: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET in the Panhandle)
• Vermont: 7 pm ET
• Oklahoma: 7 pm CT/8 pm ET
• Arizona: 7 pm MST/10 pm ET
• Alaska: 8 pm local/midnight ET (except: 8 pm local/1 am ET in the Aleutians)
The roundup, of last night's unexpectedly exciting results.
OK-Gov (D): Incumbent LG Jari Askins pulled out a razor-thin win over incumbent Attorney General Drew Edmondson, despite Edmondson's polling lead before the election. Football coaching legend Barry Switzer's endorsement of Brad Henry 8 years ago is sometimes credited with Henry's come-from-behind win, and perhaps the same applies this time around?
OK-Gov (R): No surprise in the GOP gubernatorial race, where 5th CD Rep. Mary Fallin scored 55% against three opponents - this is eerily close to Ernest Istook (Fallin's predecessor)'s 55% haul in 2006. Regardless of who wins in November, Oklahoma will have its first female governor in 2011.
OK-01 (R): John Sullivan drew five challengers in his bid for re-election, with presumably some discontent on his right flank. Sullivan's 62% performance puts him quite in line with other underwhelming incumbent performances this cycle.
OK-02 (D)/(R): Incumbent Dan Boren easily dispatched State Senator Jim Wilson by a 76-24 margin. Wilson lost the counties in his own district 36-64, and the rest of the district by an even wider 78-22 margin. Boren will face one of the two underfunded GOPers who moved onto the runoff, Charles Thompson or Daniel Edmonds. Given that neither Thompson nor Edmonds has even one measly K in their campaign accounts, Boren should be a lock for re-election in November.
OK-05 (D)/(R): On the GOP side, Christian camp director Jim Lankford and former state Rep. (and 2006 candidate) Kevin Calvey will move onto the runoff, having earned 34% and 32% respectively. State Rep. Mike Thompson - despite having the largest campaign warchest - came in third with 18%. The winner of that runoff will be heavily favored against Democrat Billy Coyle, a veteran and attorney, in this R+13 district.
11:01pm: Drew Edmondson's conceded the race to Jari Askins, who's still holding onto her 2,000 vote lead. That's a wrap, folks!
10:47pm: Big chunk of Tulsa precincts just reported, closing Edmondson within 1%. This last batch was only slightly more pro-Edmondson than expected, leaving our projection at 50.28% Askins.
10:43pm: Canadian County's also completely reported, shifting from a 7-vote Edmondson lead to a 4-vote Askins lead. That hardly budges the needle when it comes to the projection, we're still saying 50.31% Askins. Three counties are left, but the bulk of remaining precincts are in Edmondson's stronghold of Tulsa.
10:21pm: Rogers County has finally reported, adding a bit more than 5,700 votes into the race. (The mainframe is still good for some things!) Edmondson's 53-47 haul there tightens the projection further, now to 50.31% Askins, with about 11,000 votes outstanding.
10:07pm: Here at SSP, we're entertaining ourselves by speculating on what's taking Rogers County so long to report results. We usually assume to ganja breaks, but this is suburban Tulsa, after all. In all seriousness, we're estimating roughly 5,700 votes from Rogers County - Dem turnout's been about 26% of the registered total; Rogers County has 22,000 registered Dems.
10:00pm: More than three hours in, and still nothing from Rogers County. The bulk of outstanding OK County precincts are in, only slightly less Askins-friendly than expected, nudging her predicted total to 50.38%.
9:40pm: The incoming precincts continue to be more Edmondson-friendly than expected, Askins is down to a predicted 50.46%, with the Rogers County caveat still applicable. With much of Tulsa left outstanding, it'll likely come down to how the remaining OKC precincts swing.
9:36pm: Dan Boren is one lucky fellow. A runoff's been called in OK-02 between Edmonds and Thompson, neither of whom has raised more than $24k this cycle (or has more than $1k cash-on-hand, for that matter).
9:25pm: We're still looking at 51.00% for Askins, but an important caveat - we know nothing about Rogers County, which is next to Edmondson's Tulsa stronghold.
9:19pm: Some more Edmondson-friendly territory in just now, dropping our prediction for Askins to 51% flat with about 65,000 votes left to count. Little movement in OK-02, where Daniel Edmonds is still almost doubling up Daniel Arnett in competition for that second runoff slot.
9:13pm: The last two sets of updates have been remarkably consistent for Jari Askins - her predicted vote share moved from 51.23% to 51.22% to 51.24%. We're estimating now about 80,000 left out there.
9:04pm: 62% reporting statewide now; Askins continues to hold a slim 52-48 lead. Back-of-envelope says Askins by 2.5% with about 88,000 votes still floating in the ether.
9:00pm: A runoff's been called for OK-05 as well, with Kevin Calvey at 34 slightly ahead of Jim Lankford at 32. Mike Thompson lags at 17; Shane Jett's at 12.
8:53pm: The AP's called half the runoff in OK-02, with the scarlet letter floating next to Charles Thompson's name. He's at 34%, followed by Daniel Edmonds at 27% and Daniel Arnett at 14%.
8:49pm: The mainframe's finally warmed up, and the back-of-punchcard calculations are saying Askins by 3%. Edmondson's cleaning house in his home base of Tulsa 61-39, but Oklahoma County is leaning towards Askins 52-48. Askins is also doing well in the south of the state (her base), scoring 82-18 in Stephens County (Duncan) and 68-32 in Comanche County (Lawton).
8:40pm: For OK-05, the AP's called the Dem nod for Billy Coyle, a former Marine and current OKC lawyer; despite this district's swing towards Obama in 2008, he'll face an uphill climb in November.
8:37pm: A big influx of precincts brings us to 42% reporting; Askins continues to hold a 53-47 lead for the Gov nod. Thompson at 34 and Edmonds at 27 continue to look like runoff contenders in OK-02 (R), as do Calvey at 33 and Lankford at 31 in OK-05 (R). We'll put the call to SSP Labs to boot up the mainframe, should the Gov (D) race stay close.
8:34pm: The AP's called the Governor's race on the GOP side for Mary Fallin, following the trajectory of her Congressional predecessor, Ernest Istook.
8:30pm: One-third reporting for Governor now, Askins still has a 53-47 lead, while Fallin continues to cruise with 60 on the (R) side.
8:26pm: The AP's now called OK-01 for John Sullivan, who's at 65% - a number we've seen pretty frequently this primary cycle for underwhelming incumbents on both sides.
8:17pm: The AP's now running slightly ahead of the OK SEB, and the two sources have converged on 53-47 Askins for Gov-D and 58% for Fallin on the R side.
8:14pm: In the House races, OK-02 and OK-05 are two similar stories of two candidates pulling away. In OK-02, Edmonds and Thompson are ahead; in OK-05, it's Calvey and Lankford. In OK-01, Sullivan's still pulling a less-than-stellar but far-from-worrisome 65%.
8:08pm: Jari Askins continues to exceed expectations in the Gov (D) race, the AP (36,000 cast) has her with a 55-45 lead; the OK SEB has her with some newfound daylight at 53-47 (46,000 cast). Fallin's still clearing a runoff on the (R) side.
8:01pm: While the AP and OK SEB disagree on the Dem side for Governor, they're in agreement on Mary Fallin's 59% haul so far. In OK-02 (R), Daniel Edmonds and Charles Thompson have broken away from the field, but are still in runoff territory. The AP's also called OK-04 for Tom Cole, who's scoring 80%.
7:56pm: Edmondson continues to close on Askins for the Dem nod for Governor, now 51-49 according to the SEB with 25,000 votes cast. The AP has 18,000 votes cast and a 56-44 Askins lead.
7:53pm: Off in OK-01, six lined up to challenge incumbent GOPer John Sullivan, but only 2 are in the double digits; Sullivan has 67% or 69%, depending on source.
7:51pm: More precincts keep trickling in. The OK SEB has 5% reporting and a 53-47 Askins lead for Gov (D); Fallin's still looking at an outright win, with 59% right now. AP has this at 57-43 Askins and Fallin at 62%.
7:48pm: Love him or hate him, Dan Boren seems on track for reelection. The AP's just called OK-02 in his favor.
7:46pm: Again the OK SEB and the AP are showing their discrepancies. The OK SEB has Calvey ahead at 39 and Lankford at 30, with the rest of the field still trailing.
7:44pm: In the OK-05 free-for-all, now 3% reporting, Lankford's at 35 and Calvey at 30. Thompson's at 18, Jett at 12. In the OK-02 (R) six-way brawl, Charles Thompson's leading. He's at 40 according to the AP, but the OK SEB has him clearing a runoff with 55.
7:39pm: The geographic discrepancy is already quite obvious in OK-02 (D), where Boren's ahead 69-31. Wilson's leading 57-43 in the counties that overlap his SD, but is getting demolished 75-25 elsewhere.
7:32pm: The AP's called the OK-Sen (R) primary for Tom Coburn, who holding steady at 91%.
7:29pm: On the Republican side, Tom Cole is easily dispatching his opponent in OK-04 79-21; Mary Fallin is still on track for an outright win with 60% by the AP/Politico and 58% by the OK SEB.
7:25pm: Politico and the OK SEB seem to be reporting different areas; Politico's absentees, for example, have Askins up 59-41, while the SEB's 17 (presumably election-day) precincts show a 58-42 Askins.
7:23pm: Tom Coburn has 2 primary challengers but seemingly little difficulty, earning 91% in the first few precincts. In OK-05, Jim Lankford and Kevin Calvey have a bit of distance between then and Mike Thompson, who's in 3rd. Boren's now leading in OK-02, 71-29 according to Politico; the OK SEB has this at 52-48 Boren.
7:17pm: With a single precinct reporting in OK-02, Jim Wilson has a 57-43 lead over Dan Boren. No info on where that precinct is; Wilson represents three counties (Adair, Cherokee, and Sequoyah) in the state Senate.
7:15pm: Just a few votes here and there so far; Jari Askins has a 35-vote lead over Drew Edmondson in the Dem Gov race, while Mary Fallin's 3% out of runoff territory.
This is now Episode 12 of my seemingly never-ending redistricting series. (In reality, it has a definite end -- after this diary, there are only 9 states I'm planning to address: California, Washington, New Mexico, Maryland, West Virginia, Virginia, North Carolina, Kansas, and Tennessee. The other 15 states are either at-large states, or are unlikely to see substantive boundary changes.)
Today comes Oklahoma and Wisconsin. I struggled with whether to include Oklahoma at all, since my Oklahoma effort is barely different from the current map. But given the fluid partisan dynamics in Sooner State politics, and the potential issue over how to handle the "conservative Democratic" 2nd District, I thought it might be worth a look. On the other hand, I drew two maps for Wisconsin based on the highly changeable atmosphere in that state's 2010 elections.
It's been a while since we've talked about state legislatures, so here are some bits and pieces on where we stand right now (if you need a primer on where the most hotly contested chambers are and what the margin of seats held is, see my previous diary here). New York remains the big prize, with Democrats within one flipped seat of a tied State Senate and two seats away from taking control. This is the only state I know of where individual races have been polled; over the past month Siena has polled 10 of the 62 races, and with one GOP-held open seat poised to fall to the Democrats, one Dem incumbent trailing a GOP challenger, and one GOP incumbent tied with his Democratic challenger, the outcome is too close to call.
In Texas, the House is possibly the next juiciest legislative target after the NY Senate, which looks more like a two-cycle project but might actually get done this year. Republicans currently hold the House 79-71. Burnt Orange Report recently put together an impressive set of projections, and it seems like a 75-75 split is possible if Dems run the table on the closest races.
They peg two Democratic challengers, Diana Maldonado (open seat in HD-52 in Austin's northern suburbs) and Chris Turner (against incumbent Bill Zedler in HD-96 in Ft. Worth's southern suburbs), as "Lean Dem," with two more potential Democratic pickups at the "Tossup" level (Joe Moody in an open seat in HD-78 in El Paso and Joel Redmond in an open seat in HD-144 in Houston's eastern suburbs). A Houston Chronicle article from yesterday seems to support this analysis; while it doesn't delve in to specific seats, it looks at fundraising and general mood to conclude "Climate is ripe for Texas House takeover."
Yesterday, Jim Inhofe called on his supporters to send their gas receipts into his campaign office so that he can send them to Sen. Harry Reid, the Senate majority leader. Apparently, Inhofe is trying to show his frustrations that Congress adjourned without bringing any relief on energy prices.
Oklahomans, though, should be more frustrated with Jim Inhofe's decades of doing nothing to avert an energy crisis.
State Sen. Andrew Rice is fed up with opponent's lack of leadership on this issue. He's not going to send Jim Inhofe his gas receipts. Instead, he's going to send Jim Inhofe an invoice for $1,076,573 - the amount of money he's received in campaign contributions from big oil.
