SSP Daily Digest: 4/11

by: DavidNYC

Mon Apr 11, 2011 at 8:05 AM EDT

• CT-Sen: William Tong, a state rep we mentioned once before, is supposedly gearing up to enter the Democratic primary. He was recently in DC "making the rounds," and is reportedly trying to hire staff. I don't really see how he has a chance, given that two big names are already in the race, but maybe he's hoping for a good enough showing to improve his name rec with the political classes for a future run. (Tong's only in his late 30s.)

• NE-Sen: State Sen. Deb Fischer, a sorta dark-horse candidate given that two statewide officials are already running in the GOP primary, is getting encouragement from a one-time statewide office-holder: former Gov. Kay Orr, the first Republican woman to be elected governor in the United States. Interestingly, the man who stopped Orr in her bid for re-election in 1990 is the guy Fischer would take on: Ben Nelson.

• OH-Sen: As promised early last week, Josh Mandel filed paperwork with the FEC to form a Senate campaign committee, but his mouthpiece insists that it's not a formal statement of candidacy, just "a step."

• WI-Sen: GOP ex-Rep. Mark Neumann, on a two-race losing streak, is hoping that the third time's the charm. After offering some recent hints, Neumann's now explicitly saying he's considering a run against Herb Kohl. He hasn't offered any kind of timetable, except to suggest he's kinda-sorta waiting on Rep. Paul Ryan, the guy who inherited his seat in the House. (I seriously doubt Ryan will run, given his prominence in the House GOP leadership.) Neumann was last seen losing the 2010 GOP gubernatorial primary to none other than Scott Walker. Before that, he'd been out of politics for a long time, narrowly losing the 1998 Senate race to Russ Feingold. Neumann has some personal wealth he could throw into the race, though of course Kohl has a ton of money (and a history of self-funding).

House:

• NY-26: The cries of "splitters!" from the Judean People's Front/People's Front of Judea battle raging in upstate New York have just grown louder. The leaders of one teabagger group, TEA New York, issued an endorsement to Republican Jane Corwin, furious as they are over Crazy Jack Davis appropriating their good name and branding his ballot line the "Tea Party." Meanwhile, another teabagger org, the Tea Party Coalition, gave their seal of approval to Davis, who denounced TEA NY as a tool of the GOP. Oh, it also helps that the leaders of the TPC are on the Davis payroll. But for the full flavor, I strongly encourage you to read Alan Bedenko's hilarious summation of all this mishugas.

• TX-26: Dianne Costa, a former GOP mayor of Highland Village (pop. 17K) has filed paperwork to run in the 26th CD, currently held by backbencher Michael Burgess. Odds are this is a Schrödinger's Seat situation. (H/t FEC Kenobi)

Other Races:

• Las Vegas Mayor: I'm borderline uncomfortable reporting polls from Strategic National, because their chief, John Yob, established himself as an untrustworthy partisan hack almost right out the gate. But in any event, Jon Ralston obtained a copy (warning: Word file) of a poll they just took in this race, showing Carolyn Goodman ahead of Chris Giunchigliani by a 48-34 spread. It's not clear who if anyone the poll was taken for, but oddly enough, it tests some negative messages against both candidates - not something you usually see in a poll that gets released into the wild. It also features percentages that go into the thousandths, which means you know it's extra-accurate.

• Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: It's sort of redundant to begin a bullet linking to 538 by saying "Nate Silver crunches the numbers," because of course that's what he's just done. Anyhow, click the link for his look at whether the Wackiness in Waukesha points to incompetence or fraud (conclusion: "[I]f you want to allege that there's a conspiracy afoot, the statistical evidence tends to work against you.) Craig Gilbert of the Journal Sentinel also thinks the new numbers are plausible. And for a more amusing tidbit that definitely tilts in favor of Waukesha County Clerk Kathy Nickolaus being a boob, check out this entertaining story from Michigan Liberal.

Meanwhile, despite now facing very challenging odds (or perhaps because of it), JoAnne Kloppenburg has hired Marc Elias, the attorney who led Al Franken's legal efforts in his recount battle. David Prosser is tapping Ben Ginsburg, who, in addition to representing Norm Coleman, played a big role in the Bush Florida recount team.

Remainders:

• Voter Suppression: Huh - why is Jon Husted, Ohio's Republican Secretary of State, trying to sound reasonable on the issue of voter ID? In the fact of pending legislation which would require voters to bring a government-issued photo ID with them to the polls, Husted instead is in favor of allowing people to use other forms of identification, like a utility bill or government-issued check. Given how deep VOTER FRAUD!!!!!!!1111 runs in the teabagger bloodstream, this is one issue (like immigration) on which any sensible Republican with higher ambitions would be wise to avoid, yet here Husted is sticking his neck out on it. What gives?

Redistricting Roundup:

• Colorado: Colorado's new congressional map is now not expected until April 21st, instead of April 14th, as originally planned. Republicans are whining about the delay, which is partly due to the fact that 2010 precinct-level data is still being churned out by the Secretary of State's office. (The SoS claims they usually don't get it out until June 30th... why should it take eight months to do this?) Anyhow, I don't really understand why Republicans would be better off if Dems don't use the 2010 data, unless they think Democrats are dumb enough to redistrict solely based on 2008 numbers. (They aren't.) It doesn't matter, though, since the GOP isn't going to get their way here.

• Connecticut: The redistricting process is (slowly) starting here in CT.

• Florida: This is fiendish: Republicans in the legislature are pushing a constitutional amendment which would split Florida's seven-judge Supreme Court into separate five-member civil and criminal divisions, and which would also shunt the three most senior members into the criminal section. That would give Rick Scott three new appointments, and whaddya know! the four most junior justices are all Charlie Crist appointees, while the longest-serving three were all elevated by Dem Gov. Lawton Chiles. This is appearing in the redistricting roundup because Dems are (rightly) accusing the GOP of trying to pack the court in advance of the inevitable legal battles over redistricting. In order for this measure to appear on the ballot before Nov. 2012, though, it'll require the support of some Dems in the House. Let's hope they aren't stupid enough to fall for this.

Anyhow, the legislature is starting work on redistricting, but it sounds like they are in no hurry to get the job done (the above story might be part of the reason): House Speaker Dean Cannon told members who want to be on the redistricting committee to expect to work hard into next year. Of course, we do things quite a bit fast around here, so if you want to play around with the latest redistricting toy, check out this new online tool for remapping Florida.

• Iowa: Today is the deadline for members of Iowa's advisory commission to issue its recommendations on the state's new set of maps, after which the lege has to give them an up-or-down vote. All signs point to passage, which would make Iowa the first state in the nation to complete its redistricting process.

• Louisiana: Well, after a quick start with a flurry of plans getting subject to scrutiny, things have definitely gone off the rails in Louisiana. Five of the state's six Republican congressmen sent a letter to Gov. Bobby Jindal asking the legislature to delay federal redistricting until next year - and Jindal apparently agrees with the idea. Daily Kingfish describes this as a big setback for Jindal, given that his party controls the entire lege. It is a little surprising to me that one man, Rep. Charles Boustany, apparently has the power (and the allies in the state Senate) to mess with Jindal like this, but perhaps the governor simply thinks he can steamroll Boustany after the November elections, assuming Republicans gain more seats.

• New Jersey: The fallout continues: Three NJ legislators have announced they will move into new districts so that they can run again this fall, and apparently all of them are being welcomed to do so by their own parties. Of course, it's still early, and some people will definitely get squeezed out by the end.

• Ohio: This is actually the same link at the voter suppression story above, but it contains a throw-away line at the end in which SoS Jon Husted says congressional districts need to be re-drawn by Sept. 1st in order for Ohio to hold its primary by March 2012. (Otherwise it would have to get moved - to May, according to the article, but if the process really drags on, who knows how late things could get shifted.)

• Sacramento: You can redistrict the city of Sacramento, California in this online game.

• Virginia: Played for fools - that's what Virginia House Democrats are. GOP Lt. Gov. Bill Bolling is praising the Republican gerrymander of the state House, which passed with near-total Dem support in that body, despite representing a deliberate plan to fuck over Democrats, as having "strong bipartisan support." At the same time, he's slamming the Dem state Senate map, which GOPers had the good sense to vote against en masse, as some kind of unholy gerrymander. Duh! Bolling is trying to goad the lege into adopting maps produced by Gov. Bob McDonnell's commission (not gonna happen), but he's also suggesting that McDonnell could "substitute" the commission's maps for whatever the legislature passes. I admit I'm not entirely clear on how that would work - a particularly egregious use of the line item veto, or something along those lines? Seems risky.

Of course, all of this is predicated on bipartisan incumbent-protection agreement which includes the federal map as well. But is this deal unraveling? Dem state Sen. Janet Howell, who created the senate map, says she "doubts" her body's congressional map will match the House's, which was released just last week (the Janis plan). I'm surprised to hear this, because I thought a clear understanding had been worked out between the two houses, but I suppose there is still some negotiation left to be done over the federal map.

Ohio Two-Ways: Fair Districts & GOP-Friendly

by: borodino21

Mon Mar 14, 2011 at 11:57 PM EDT

CT, OH, and PA: Population by CD

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 09, 2011 at 3:53 PM EST

Ohio is one of only a couple states to lose two seats, taking it from 18 down to 16. Its new target is 721,032, up from about 631K in 2000. The state as a whole didn't lose population (gaining 183,364), but seven of its districts did (the 1st, 5th, 6th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 17th). The Columbus area was the only part of the state that seemed to experience robust growth; in fact, despite the state losing two seats, the 12th (a swing district held by GOPer Pat Tiberi) will actually need to shed population... much of the state's growth is accounted for in the growth in the 12th.

The numbers today don't really change the overall redistricting equation: one of the northeastern Ohio Democrats is clearly going to have to go, and while the Akron-area 13th (held by Betty Sutton) actually gained some population unlike its neighbors, it may be the one that gets dissected simply by virtue of being in the very middle (with the 9th pressuring it from the west, the 10th and 11th from the north, and the 17th from the east). As for which GOPer gets cut, I'd expected it to be one of Bill Johnson (in the 6th) or Bob Gibbs (in the 18th), but the 18th, despite its mostly rural, Appalachian flavor, seemed to hang in there better than expected, population-wise. Now I'm wondering if Bob Latta's 5th in the rural northwest, which is going to be pressured by the 9th to its north and the 4th to its east, may be a more natural target. Or here's another possibility (made likelier by the possibility that the local GOP might like rid themselves of a liability in the form of Jean Schmidt): the 2nd might be targeted, despite its decent numbers, as both the 1st to its west and the 6th to its east need to gain a ton of people (and extending the 1st east into red, suburban Clermont County would make GOPer Steve Chabot's life easier).

Pennsylvania's target is 705,688 based on the drop from 19 to 18 seats, up from about 646K in 2000. The 2nd, 3rd, 12th, and 14th all lost population. I'd really recommend looking at the Census Bureau's interactive map of Pennsylvania, as it shows exactly what's going on: the eastern half of the state gained a bit, while nearly every county in the state's western half outright lost population. In fact, there were enough gains in the east that four districts wind up needing to shed population: the 6th and 15th in the Philadelphia suburbs/exurbs, and the more rural, Pennsylvania Dutch-flavored 16th and 19th. These are all Republican-held districts, but these are all districts that moved sharply in the Dem direction from 2004 to 2008, while on the other hand, the shrinking western districts are Democratic areas but ones where the overall trend has been away from the Dems. (Interestingly, two cities that over recent decades came to symbolize dead northeastern industrial centers, Allentown and Reading, are actually rebounding, gaining around 10,000 people each and helping to grow the 15th and 16th respectively. Much of the growth in those two cities, though, as well as the small growth experienced in Philadelphia, is Hispanic.)

With the GOP in control of the redistricting process in Pennsylvania and the population losses heavily concentrated in the Pittsburgh area, it looks like the axe is going to fall heavily on fairly-new Dem Mark Critz in the odd-shaped 12th, which was designed to be a friendly district for John Murtha cobbling together Cambria County with the Dem-friendly parts of Pittsburgh's collar counties but is barely holding onto its Dem roots these days. Mike Doyle's 14th (in Pittsburgh proper), despite being the biggest population loser, is probably going to stay intact, as Republicans will need to concede at least one blue vote sink in the southwest (and probably get bluer, as it'll need to expand into the dead steel towns of the Mon Valley to its south, currently the bluest part of the 12th).

If Critz wants to stick around, he's likely to find himself either fighting Jason Altmire in a primary in the 4th or Tim Murphy in a general in the 18th (although Critz has enough of a Johnstown-area base that he might be able to pull out an upset in whatever district Johnstown winds up in, unless the GOP decides that the 9th, in the central part of the state, is red enough to safely absorb Johnstown).

Safe 11-5 GOP in Ohio

by: jncca

Wed Feb 02, 2011 at 7:56 PM EST

Here's the state:

Let's start in the Southwest

1st-yellow: Steve Chabot

Chabot loses some bluer precincts to the east and expands into the suburbs, probably making this Likely R rather than Toss-Up.  Lean R in a bad year like '08.  

2nd-green: Jean Schmidt

Schmidt's district is safe for anybody but her.  I don't really think any Democrat could hold it, so if she goes down and is replaced by someone with the same voting record but not as crazy, the GOP shouldn't mind.  They will hold this 8 of the 10 years, at least.  Plus, endangering her is the only way to make Chabot safe.

3rd-tan: Mike Turner

Turner loses a rural county and adds some suburbs.  If anything, it gets a little bit safer.

8th-red: John Boehner

The Speaker must take on some new territory.  He might live out of the district, in which case he can swap a bit of territory with Chabot for no partisan effect.  Anyone worried about a defeat, incumbents don't lose in R+10 districts without a huge scandal or gaffe (see Sali, Bill)

4th-yellow: Jim Jordan

The RSC chair swaps some rural counties.  That's basically it.  Except he doesn't really live in the district.  I should have looked into that before I drew the map.  However, who is going to challenge him and win?  He can run in the 4th anyways.

5th-turquoise: Bob Latta

Latta takes on the (swingy? lean r? someone from ohio inform me) Toledo suburbs and some other swingy areas.  It's probably only Lean R rather than Likely, but it would be an uphill climb for any Democrat.

I created the Columbus Dem vote sink many people agree should exist, most likely eliminating Steve Stivers, the most moderate Ohio GOPer anyways.

7th: Steve Austria-gray

Austria takes on more of the Columbus suburbs and the whiter parts of Columbus.  He's still safe.

15th: Columbus--area Democrat--salmon

It's safe for our side, and makes the surrounding districts safe as well.

12th: Pat Tiberi-light blue

Tiberi's district gets much safer.  He could face a primary challenge I guess, or he'll tack right a bit.

Then there's the 6th: Bill Johnson-pink in zoomed in maps, blue in statewide map

Johnson gets much safer with the elimination of the rest of Mahoning County.  He still has Athens in the district, though.

16th: Jim Renacci-orange

Renacci loses inner-city Canton, something else I've never seen.  This should make him safe, with an already R-tilting district.

This sets up the incredibly ugly:
13th: Tim Ryan-bright green

Taking in industrial areas along Lake Erie, Democratic Mahoning and Warren Counties, inner-city Canton, Alliance, and the most populated parts of Portage County, Ryan has an incredible gerrymander going for him.  It's ugly, but makes Kucinich's elimination possible and makes Renacci safe.

14th: Steven LaTourette-brick

I'd be concerned about replacing him in a completely 50 50 district.  He's probably safe, but a successor might not be.

How was this all possible?

By using water contiguity in Lake Erie.

9th: Marcy Kaptur-gold

Taking in Toledo, Lorain County, and Western Cuyahoga, Kaptur's new district is an uber-Dem vote sink.  She could be primaried by Kucinich, as this district is more liberal with less of a Toledo influence in the Democratic primary, and he probably doesn't have anywhere else to go.

10th: Betty Sutton-pale pink

Sutton takes in much of Kucinich's Cleveland Suburbs, the Democratic parts of Summit County, and some exurbs in between for a safe district that is shaped similarly to her own but contains some new territory.

11th: Marcia Fudge-puke

A fitting color for a representative who tried to weaken ethics laws.  Fudge's district is slightly under 50% Black, which could be tweaked if it looked uglier (possibly)

And there you have it!

12-4 Ohio Gerrymandering

by: nycyoungin

Fri Nov 26, 2010 at 9:50 PM EST

One VRA district in Cleveland (that I got to 50%+1)

All incumbents are kept in their homes.

Wilson's and Boccieri's districts are combined. So are Kucinich's and Sutton's.

Let me know what you think. Will post more data later.

Ohio Redistricting 2012 - 13-3 GOP

by: 54cermak

Fri Nov 05, 2010 at 9:26 AM EDT

However, what that fails to take into context is that Ohio is about to lose 2 of its 18 seats once the census figures are published, which gives the GOP an opportunity to take a 13-5 House advantage to 13-3. Below are some scenarios that will enable them to accomplish that:

Lost Seat #1: Shore up Jim Renacci, combine Tim Ryan and Betty Sutton.

This scenario seems like the easiest call for the Republicans. Currently Renacci was just elected to OH-16 which contains Stark (Canton/Massillon), Wayne (Wooster), Medina (Cleveland exurbs), and Ashland (rural, very conservative) Counties.

This district was drawn in 2000 to protect GOP moderate stalwart Ralph Regula who lived in the Canton area. Canton & Stark County also happen to be the most Dem friendly parts of the district as currently constructed, voting for both Kerry and Obama in 2004 & 2008. With Renacci's home in Wadsworth (Medina County), it will be easy for Republicans to combine parts of the current OH-10, 13, 16, 17 & 18 into two districts.

Renacci's new district will shift north and west, abandoning Stark County in the process by swallowing the Medina & Cuyahoga County portions of OH-13 (these suburbs: Strongsville, North Royalton & Brecksville are the most reliably GOP leaning areas of Dem-heavy Cuyahoga County), the eastern Lorain County portion of 13 (Avon, Avon Lake, North Ridgeville: fast growing GOP suburbs) and the western edge of OH-10 (Bay Village, Rocky River, Westlake). Whatever portions of Wayne & Ashland counties in the southern part of his current district that won't fit population-wise can be eaten up by Gibbs in present-day OH-18.

That leaves a new Democratic district comprised of Akron, Canton & Youngstown that draws Sutton's home in Copley (just outside Akron) and Ryan's home in Niles (just outside Youngstown) into the same district and forces a primary between the two most promising congressional Dems in Ohio. Taking one of these two out will be a major boon to the GOP by eliminating or weakening the strongest challengers to Portman or Kasich in 2014 and 2016.

Lost Seat #2: This is where it gets harder for the GOP to come up with another lost Dem seat. The possibilities in order of likelihood:

1. With Renacci squeezing Kucinich to the west, the Republicans could draw a new minority-majority district in Cleveland by moving Fudge and Kucinich into the same district. This would involve LaTourette scraping off the eastern edge of Fudge's territory. The new map would basically be the city of Cleveland + inner ring suburbs.

In this situation, Kucinich would likely retire or move to the suburbs to challenge Renacci where he would lose in an R+ district.

2. Split up Columbus 3 ways. Columbus presents a problem for Republicans in the state. It is the area that is experiencing the most population growth in the state, and it is also the area that is trending the strongest towards Democrats.

Currently OH-12 (Tibieri) and OH-15 (Stivers) represent the city by drawing in as much as they can from the sparsely populated surrounding counties. Even here, both districts are perpetually threatened, with Kilroy (D) holding OH-15 for one term before her defeat this year. OH-12 is actually the bluer of the two Columbus districts, but Dems can never seem to recruit the right candidate to beat Tibieri.

To stave off flipping one of these seats permanently to Team Blue, the GOP could find a way to give Gibbs or Turner a slice of the Columbus pie and keep Dem votes divided.

3. The last scenario I could see happening doesn't get the GOP to 13-3, but could be a prudent strategic move for them in SW Ohio.

By eliminating OH-2 (Schmidt), they could expand Chabot's district to the east and leave him less vulnerable to a Democratic wave year like 2008. Turner and Johnson (OH-6)would take what was left of Mean Jean's territory and help shore up their own re-election hopes.

Schmidt's constant underperformance is likely a drag on RCCC funds as they constantly have to defend the 2nd most Republican seat in Ohio due to the relative unpopularity of Ms. Schmidt.

These are just a few scenarios and I'm sure I'm missing others. Another possibility would be to force Marcy Kaptur and Bob Latta into a showdown, but Kapur's seat is already so gerrymandered, I'm not sure how you draw in Toledo & the islands without strengthening the Dems.

Any thoughts?

OH St.-House: Campaigns Ramping Up

by: The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee

Wed Sep 15, 2010 at 10:48 AM EDT

[cross-posted at DLCC.org - SSP has been paying a lot of attention to the Ohio House and Ohio redistricting, so we hope the latest campaign news is of interest to folks here.]

Part 1 of 2:

A relative handful of Ohio House contests offer Democrats an opportunity to unpack one of the worst GOP gerrymanders in the country, and they offer Republicans a chance to fine-tune their handiwork and wipe away the Democratic gains since 2006.

Last week was a busy one in the campaign to defend the Democrats' narrow majority, underscoring the two-month sprint that's all that remains between now and Election Day.

Ohio GOP Gerrymander: 9-5-2 Republican map (UPDATE: 9-6-1 see below)

by: californianwonder

Mon Sep 13, 2010 at 12:36 AM EDT

UPDATE: New proposed Columbus map in the comments (sorry mods if its too big!!), creating a safe Columbus (60%+ Obama, 200,000 African Americans) district and a likely Republican suburb district.

Cincinatti area:

OH-01:
Hamilton, Cincinatti suburbs
Steve Driehaus (D)*

Adds more Republican Butler County (avoiding West Chester, where Boehner lives) and loses all of the heavily black parts of Cincinatti (much like how Columbus' district are already). Driehaus is D.O.A here, but he could run in the 3rd district, where the black parts of Cincinatti are in Jean Schmidt's district. Eitherway, this district is a Republican one.

OH-02:
Middletown, Troy, West Chester
John Boehner (R)

Warps around Dayton, but still extremely Republican. Minority (or Majority) Leader Boehner is safe.

OH-03:
Most of Cincinatti, Portsmouth
Jean Schmidt (R)

Schmidt is screwed. That's putting it nicely. If she only ecks out single-digit wins in an extremely conservative district, she won't win here with all the new African-Americans in the district. I'm guessing Steve Dreihaus would run here, and the Republican gerrymander actually helps him surprisingly.

OH-04:
Dayton, Kettering, Springfield
Michael Turner (R)

Turner keeps his Dayton-area base and expands to Springfield via  Fairborn in Greene County. Also takes Mary Jo Kilroy's  Madison and Union counties. Safe.

OH-05:
Lancaster, Beavercreek, Zanesville
Steve Austria (R)

Austria's district expands to take in two of Zack Space's most visible cities, Zanesville and Chillicothe.

OH-06:
Western Columbus and suburbs Most of Columbus
Mary Jo Kilroy (D)

Kilroy is probably slightly more safer, as ultra-conservative Union and Madison counties are out of her district and is entirely within Franklin County. Her race is still a toss-up to me though. Yeah nevermind, by making Kilroy safe, we also keep Pat Tiberi safe as well, which helps the GOP actually. Obama probably took in 64% in this district, so Kilroy can live another day. Now with exactly 200,161 African Americans!

OH-07:
Eastern Columbus, Delaware, Mount Vernon North and Eastern Columbus suburbs
Pat Tiberi (R)

What do you get when you combine extremely Republican counties outside of Columbus and the African-American heavy parts of Columbus? A swing district, like this one. Slightly a bit more African-American, Tiberi is still safe. Centered around Columbus makes Tiberi a whole lot safer, even if it helps another Democrat.

OH-08:
Lima, Findlay, Defiance
Jim Jordan (R)

Still the most conservative district in Ohio. Nothing to see here.

OH-09:
Bowling Green, Mansfield, Fremont
Bob Latta (R)

Mostly unchanged but expands into the Mansfield-area. Safe.

OH-10:
Toledo, Lorain, part of Elyria
Marcy Kaptur (D)

Expands to take in Lorain and parts of Elyria, safe for Kaptur.

OH-11:
Massilion, Kent, part of Elyria
Betty Sutton (D)

This district takes in Medina County and loses most of Akron. If this district was to be implemented, Sutton would probably lose this year.  Republican pickup.

OH-12:
Canton, Athens, New Philadelphia
Zack Space (D) vs John Boccieri (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

WesternEastern Ohio's population is dropping...fast. This district goes from Canton and swirvs its way down to Athens. Zack Space and John Boccieri both live here, but Charlie Wilson lives just right outside the boundaries but this area is still his. Who would win here? I'm guessing Wilson, but if he doesn't run here i'd go with Space. Sorry John.

OH-13:
Youngstown, Steubenville, Warren
Tim Ryan (D) vs Charlie Wilson? (D)

This is where Charlie Wilson lives but most of this area is represented by Tim Ryan. Ryan is moderate enough for this district, so Wilson is in a predictament here.

OH-14:
Western Cleveland, part of Elyria
Dennis Kucinich (D)

Mostly the same but goes into Lorain County to pickup votes.

OH-15:
Eastern Cleveland, most of Akron
Marcia Fudge (D)

Here's the district which bugged me the most. I'm not sure if it HAS to be majority-black, but i kept it that way anyways. stretches into Akron to take in African-American votes.

OH-16:
Mentor, Ashtabula, part of Akron
Steven LaTourette (R)

Slightly more Democratic due to the presence of Akron. LaTourette is still safe though.

More pictures:

Breakdown:
OH-01, OH-02, OH-04, OH-05, OH-07, OH-08, OH-09, OH-11,OH-16: Republican Seats
OH-03 (if Schmidt runs): Tossup seats
OH-10, OH-12, OH-13, OH-14, OH-15: Democratic Seats

6 Democratic Seats
1 Tossup seats
9 Republican Seats

If Schmidt doesn't run:
10 Republican Seats
6 Democratic Seats

First redistricting diary, tell me what you think :) (And no, i am not and will not do California. As much as i love my state, its too large and the precincts are annoying...Yes i'm talking to you Santa Clara and Kern Counties.)

Ohio Gerrymandered Both Ways

by: MassGOP

Tue Aug 24, 2010 at 1:00 AM EDT

How Lee Fisher Can Win

by: Alibguy

Sun Aug 01, 2010 at 11:14 AM EDT

Yet again, Ohio will be a battleground state for a hard fought race. In 2004, this state was ground zero for campaigning as Bush and Kerry focused all their efforts here. Kerry did well in traditionally Democratic cities and even did well in urban swing counties. He unfortunately could not match Bush's margins in rural and suburban counties so he lost. In 2008 though, Obama turned out the cities even more. He improved in certain rural areas, most specifically the northern and western parts of the state. The area Obama was most successful in improving over Kerry was the suburbs of the big cities. Still, the national trend to Obama over Kerry was higher than the trend in Ohio. In the 2010 Senate race, Lee Fisher (D) will need to perform well to be successful in winning Ohio like Obama. Fisher is the Lieutenant Governor and he is from Cleveland. Before he was elected Lieutenant Governor in 2006 , Fisher was a State Senator from Cleveland. Polls show him in a tight race for George Voinovich's (R) open U.S Senate seat against Rob Portman (R). Besides being a former congressman from the Cincinnati area, Portman worked under the Bush Administration. Although 2010 should be a good year for Republicans, Fisher has a chance of actually picking up a Republican Senate seat by beating Portman. Fisher will soon have to face Portman's deep pockets but Fisher can still win this race. Here are some good ways for him to do that:

Make the race about Portman and his background. Rob Portman was a U.S trade representative under the Bush Administration.  On his website, Fisher does mention how he will not be a continuation of Bush policies. Unfortunately, this strategy is starting to become stale with the Democrats' popularity falling. The strategy works though because Portman is not an outsider Republican, he was a Republican in the Bush Administration. Fisher must remind voters about how bad Bush was while portraying himself as someone with new ideas. Already, Fisher mentions on his website frequently how he  does not represent the policies that lead us into this economic decline but Portman does. Something else Fisher does well is that he has a page devoted to jobs with a detailed plan for creating them. He needs to keep focusing on jobs. It did not work for Kerry in 2004 in Ohio but it will work now.

Focus more on the rural voters. Fisher's website does have a page for rural voters but it should be more detailed and show specific ways Fisher helped farmers and others in rural communities. Farmers and others in rural areas were the reason Bush won Ohio in 2004 so if Fisher can swing some of them to the Democrats, he should be successful. Fisher should run an ad showing how Portman wanted to cut farm subsidies by 60% while Fisher has strongly supported the 2008 farm bill and development for rural communities. Fisher highlights how he strongly fought crime and helped children in urban areas. He also has mentioned his immigrant background to help with white voters in the Cleveland area. These issues should help with votes in Cleveland, Akron and will probably play well in Columbus (except for the immigration issue becaus Columbus is not a big immigrant city.) Farmers working on their crops will not be thinking about crime in urban areas right now though.

Win the rural counties near the Ohio River (also known as Southeast Ohio.) This is similar to the paragraph about rural farmers but people with roots in coal will have different concerns than farmers. Fisher has roots in Northeast Ohio while Portman is popular in the Cincinnati and Southwest Ohio areas. The union presence may help Fisher in Southeast Ohio but if Fisher wants to win, he must run up numbers here. In 2006, successful Gubernatorial candidate Ted Strickland (D) and Senatorial candidate Sherrod Brown piled up large margins in these counties. In 2004, Kerry tried to win by winning big margins in Northeast Ohio. Even though he won areas outside of Northeast Ohio like Columbus and Dayton, it still was not enough to win. Overall, Kerry proved that unless you do well in rural areas (or run up margins in urban areas outside of Northeast Ohio,) you cannot win in Ohio. Also, Fisher needs to highlight strongly how he helped workers rights with his support of the Paycheck Fairness Act for example.

Win the progressive base that supported Jennifer Brunner (D) before Fisher beat her in the Senatorial primary. This should not be too hard for Fisher even though Brunner said she will not endorse him. This should not impact Fisher strongly because there is not a large progressive base in Ohio. Many of the Democrats here are more liberal on issues like the economy but are not the environment liberals you find in California or the social liberals you find in New York City. Columbus and Athens are two of the few areas where progressives are strong. Fisher is trying to appeal to the base by highlighting his work on civil rights. Also, the results from the primary show Fisher not doing poorly in progressive areas so maybe he never had any trouble with them at all.

Match Portman on the money front. Rob Portman is beating Fisher on the money front. Fisher could consider pandering to the progressive base but that could hurt his standing among moderates. Anyway, Brunner was considered the progressive but she received little money from donors, even the progressive base. At the primary, Brunner interestingly won some rural counties with few progressives though. If Fisher successfully painted Portman as a product of the Bush Administration, he could energize some progressives which would cause him to raise money. Still, Fisher should not nationalize the race. I believe the best way for Fisher to get money is through the unions because they are powerful in Ohio and he has a record of supporting workers rights.

Overall, Fisher is running a good campaign with putting jobs as front and center and making comparisons between Portman and Bush. He is also solidifying his lead in urban Ohio by talking about how he helped reduce crime. What he needs to do is focus more on rural issues and rural voters. Highlighting his family's background as immigrants from Russia and working in the steel industry helps him along the Ohio River and strengthens him in  Northeast Ohio. Many farmers and other rural residents cannot relate to Fisher's family story though. Fisher does not give specific examples of bills he helped work on or sponsored to help rural areas. Saying you support rural residents is good but Fisher must give specific examples of how he helped them. If urban voters turn out strongly for Fisher because he highlighted important issues for them such as crime and workers rights but if Fisher also keeps down margins in rural areas, Fisher can be Ohio's next Senator.