Dan Boren (D): 36
Tom Coburn (R-inc): 53
(MoE: ±3.7%)
In a hypothetical race against two of the strongest candidates that Oklahoma Democrats could muster -- incumbent Gov. Brad Henry and 2nd CD Rep. Dan Boren -- Coburn would be far from imperiled. In any case, neither Henry nor Boren would be likely candidates to make kamikaze runs against the incumbent Coburn, who sports a strong 59% approval rating in the same poll. However, an open seat scenario could be different...
Brad Henry (D): 43
Tom Cole (R): 44
Brad Henry (D): 44
J.C. Watts (R): 45
Dan Boren (D): 40
Tom Cole (R): 42
Dan Boren (D): 41
J.C. Watts (R): 46
While the DSCC is reportedly heavily encouraging Henry to run if Coburn decides to retire at the end of his term, it's a bit sobering to know that the most well-known and popular Democrat in the state would not begin a Senate campaign with an advantage against a sadsack like Tom Cole.
UPDATE: The National Journal reports that ex-Gov. Frank Keating (R) is interested in running for Coburn's seat should it become open, according to sources close to Keating. Additionally, Coburn is expected to make an announcement on his 2010 plans "within the next few weeks".
Jim Bunning has been telegraphing bad fundraising numbers for some time now, especially with his public admission last month that his fundraising was "lousy." With the numbers he released today, we can see the full scope of "lousy:" he raised $263,000 in the first quarter, and has $375,000 cash on hand. This looks like the Bunning campaign starting to enter a death spiral: perceptions that he can't win lead to low fundraising, which leads to perceptions that he can't win (and certainly that's not helped by polls showing him losing by double digits).
Also, bear in mind this is less than his potential Dem challenger Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo has; Mongiardo raised more than $429,000 last quarter (although Mongiardo will need to spend a lot this year to stay competitive with AG Jack Conway in the primary). And while you might be thinking $263K can still go a long way in a cheap state like Kentucky, that's not quite true; Kentucky is a very inefficient state for advertising dollars, as you have to pour a lot of money into the Cincinnati and Evansville markets, so blanketing Kentucky costs more than the cost of blanketing some states with significantly larger populations.
Still, Bunning is rich as Croesus compared with fellow Republican Tom Coburn of Oklahoma. Coburn reports having raised all of $17,000 in the first quarter, and holds $57,000 cash on hand. While Coburn has been making public noises lately about being unsure about whether to run for re-election (saying yesterday that he was seeking divine guidance on the issue, as well as saying that "Being a doctor is more fun"), these numbers speak pretty loudly on the issue.
• NY-20 (pdf): The morning update on the NY-20 absentee count finds Scott Murphy padding his skimpy lead a bit, up to 168. There was a partial report of absentees from Warren County (one of the strongholds of the Murphy clan), and the expected report from Saratoga County (Tedisco country) didn't materialize, so this may be only a temporary surge. Democratic number crunchers, starting with Nate Silver, are sounding increasingly sanguine about the direction the absentee ballots are taking, though. Nate projects about a 500-vote margin for Murphy when all is said and done.
The Albany Project has been all over the sudden increase in ballot challenges by the Tedisco camp (who've moved to challenge second-home voters and student voters in the last few days). In the battle of perceptions, however, the GOP may have gone a fridge too far with their latest step, challenging the absentee ballot of NY-20's favorite resident, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand visited the Great Orange Satan and HuffPo to blog about her experience.
• MO-Sen: Polls have given SoS Robin Carnahan a commanding position in the open Missouri senate race, and now she has fundraising numbers to match, posting $1,048,000 in the first quarter.
• OH-Sen: There's one other SoS running for an open senate seat who didn't fare so well, though. Jennifer Brunner pulled in a surprisingly low $200,000. That may pick up once she gets the expected EMILY's List endorsement, but it leaves her lagging behind Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who raised more than $1 million and is already wearing the mantle of 'establishment' Dem candidate.
• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who's never held elective office before but is well-connected in Philadelphia's corridors of power, reported a solid $584,000 in an abbreviated Q1 (only since mid-February).
• OK-Sen: Are you there, God? It's me, Tom Coburn. I can't decide whether or not to run for re-election. (He says he's not playing games; it's a "spiritual thing.") The Club for Growth, in their first act since Chris "Count" Chocola took over, endorsed Coburn today, though.
• TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman, who got 12% of the vote as an independent in the chaotic 2006 Texas governor's race, is doing it again, and this time he's running in the Democratic primary. It's unclear whether this will work to Friedman's advantage, since a lot of his support comes from Paulists, Naderites, and other assorted weirdos who may not be registered Democrats, and Tom Schieffer gives Dem voters a 'normal' option.
• FL-10: Bill Young is always on 'most likely' to retire lists, but the 78-year-old is giving a little more fodder for that mill with today's fundraising report. He raised only $7,100 in the first quarter, sitting on $412K CoH. (He only raised $15K in Q1 of 2007, though, and won easily in 2008.)
• MI-09: Joe Knollenberg won't be back for a rematch against Gary Peters, who unseated him in 2008, but his former chief of staff will. Paul Welday, who's also a former Oakland County GOP chair, will challenge him in 2010. Welday lost a race for the state house in 2008.
It seems that no one knows what Tom Coburn will do in 2010, and The Hill thinks he might bail:
Coburn's exit would throw a safe seat into the realm of possibility for Democrats, who have two attractive candidates available in term-limited Gov. Brad Henry and Rep. Dan Boren.
While Bunning took heat for raising a paltry $27,000 in the fourth quarter of 2008, Coburn raised just $19,000 and had far less cash on hand - $55,000 - than any other senator up for reelection next year.
Coburn might in fact have his sights set elsewhere:
One Oklahoma GOP consultant suggested it wouldn't even be surprising to see Coburn wind up running for governor, despite his having said that he wouldn't and the presence of an early party favorite in Rep. Mary Fallin (R-Okla.).
I'm skeptical about any Dem chances for picking up the Senate seat. But I'm delighted at the possibility of Tom Coburn just mucking things up in general. If he does wimp out on a re-election bid, the hapless Tom Cole might run to replace him, and he'd be fun to kick around some more even if he won in a romp.
Democrat Brad Henry is term-limited out of the governor's office in Oklahoma in 2010... which is the same year that crank GOP Sen. Tom Coburn is up for re-election. So, it's the perfect opportunity for Henry to run for the Senate, right? Well, it would be, but the only problem is that Henry seems to have zero interest whatsoever in joining the Senate.
So, the big questions: Who should Oklahoma Democrats run to replace Henry? And who should run for Coburn's seat? Since it's not a given that Coburn will run for re-election, who might step up for the GOP? (A promotion for SSP's favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, perhaps?)
David Horowitz is a Republican activist who travels from college campus to college campus, giving inflammatory lectures about how liberals hate America and Muslims want to kill you. He recently published a new book called Party of Defeat: How Democrats and Radicals Undermined America's War on Terror Before and After 9/11. The authors of this book proudly advertise it right here. As you can see, it has a white flag on the cover, it is about as offensive and inflammatory as you can get.
With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
There's been a bunch of polls released over the past couple of days that we haven't gotten around to blogging yet. Let's blast through 'em all in one post (trendlines in parens):
IN-Gov (Research 2000): Daniels 49 (47), Long Thompson 45 (46)
SurveyUSA (9/28-29, likely voters, 9/5-7 in parens):
Andrew Rice (D): 37 (34)
Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 53 (56)
Stephen Wallace (I): 7 (6)
(MoE: ±3.9%)
A 22-point lead becomes a 16-point lead. Still an incredibly tough race, but some signs of life, perhaps?
On the Presidential side, McCain leads Obama by 64-34 in Oklahoma -- that's down ever so slightly from 65-32 earlier in the month. Despite all the bad economic news as of late, the needle hasn't moved much at the top the ticket in this state.
Tom Allen (D): 42 (40)
Susan Collins (R-inc): 55 (55)
(MoE: ±4.5%)
We've all been waiting for something... anything... to happen here, but Allen has not been able to land many direct hits so far. Will the bomb ever drop?
And how are things going in Oklahoma? Rasmussen (9/11, likely voters, no trend lines):
Andrew Rice (D): 39
Jim Inhofe (R-inc): 55
(MoE: ±4.5%)
That seems about right, but I understand that there may be another poll of this race by a different outlet released soon.
And finally, Kentucky: Research 2000 for Daily Kos (9/15-17, likely voters, 7/28-30 in parens):
