It looks like pesky GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi is about to face his most legit challenger in years. From the Columbus Dispatch:
Democratic Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks said today she will challenge Rep. Pat Tiberi of Genoa Township in next year's congressional election.
Brooks' decision to run for Congress sets up what could be the toughest race Tiberi has faced since his 2000 election in the 12th Congressional District. Brooks, 56, has twice won voter approval across Franklin County, including an easy re-election last year.
In a Dispatch telephone interview today, Brooks said she has a "burning desire'' to get the country "through these tough times. Frankly, people in the district say they are disappointed in the current member and they want a fresh approach to tackling these tough problems.''
Brooks said that Gov. Ted Strickland and Mayor Michael B. Coleman have both pledged to support her effort to unseat Tiberi. She said the major issues would be "jobs, health care, and our military families and security.''
Brooks, as you may recall, briefly ran for Franklin County's other congressional seat (OH-15) last cycle, before deferring to Mary Jo Kilroy. Now she's back for a crack at the 12th, a district that was hand-carved for the GOP during redistricting, but has since shifted in the Dem direction. Bush won this CD by 52-46 in 2000, but that margin tightened to 51-49 four years later. Obama finally blew the doors open last year, by winning the district by a 53-46 spread according to SSP's analysis of the precinct returns.
However, Tiberi has been a tough candidate to beat; octogenarian and ex-Rep. Bob Shamansky put up a valiant effort in 2006, but Tiberi smashed the old man with a 16-point romp. Even as Obama turned this district blue last year, Tiberi cruised to a 55-42 victory over underfunded Democrat Mike Robinson. Still, Brooks will definitely bring a stronger profile to this race than either Shamansky or Robinson could offer. Her most glaring weakness? She lives just "eight minutes" outside of the 12th CD's border.
I favor Democrats working to field the best possible candidate in every Congressional district and to mount the strongest possible campaign in each. Hand-in-glove with that effort, Democrats also need to think ahead to and visualize success next election day and in future elections and to plan backwards in time from those successes to assure that all that needs to happen to assure those successes does happen.
So I am thinking about less than a handful of Congressional districts where Democrats should make exceptional efforts to take out Republican incumbents in 2010, both because a challenger could imaginably win and because the districts consist of territory that is important to a Democratic future. These are the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth. These districts are respectively represented by Republicans Tom Latham of Ames, Lee Terry of Omaha, and Pat Tiberi of Columbus. Barack Obama carried all three districts, and each district played a constructive role in his Electoral College margin.
And Latham, Terry, and Tiberi need to go.
Today I looked at how interest groups evaluated the three, and (while, because of my haste in checking, I acknowledge certain limitations vis a vis timeliness as well as some potential for mistake) I believe I have identified several broad themes that tie the three men to each other.
Abortion.
On abortion Latham, Terry, and Tiberi support Planned Parenthood (http://www.plannedparenthoodaction.org/) zero percent of the time and the National Right to Life Committee (http://www.nrlc.org/) one hundred percent of the time.
Czars of Financial Institutions.
On financial institutions Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have been one hundred percent for Financial Executives International (http://www.financialexecutives.org/eweb/startpage.aspx?site=_fei).
Energy and the Environment.
Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have at best very spotty records on energy and the environment. Those records are perhaps best illustrated by zero percent scores on energy legislation supported by the Campaign for America's Future (http://www.ourfuture.org/) and for supporting continuing dependence on fossil fuels as evidenced by 100 percent scores from the American Coalition for Ethanol (http://www.ethanol.org/).
Families and Children.
On family and children's issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored 100 percent with the American Family Association (http://www.afa.net/), but zero percent with American Family Voices (http://www.americanfamilyvoices.org/).
Guns.
On gun issues Latham, Terry, and Tiberi are rated "A" by the National Rifle Association (http://www.nrapvf.org/), but all get zeros from the Coalition to Stop Gun Violence (http://www.csgv.org/site/c.pmL5JnO7KzE/b.3509205/k.BDBC/Home.htm).
Health Care.
On health care Latham, Terry, and Tiberi get zeros from organizations like the American Public Health Association (http://www.apha.org/), the AIDS Action Council (http://www.aidsaction.org/), the American Nurses Association (http://www.nursingworld.org/), and the National Rural Health Association (http://www.ruralhealthweb.org/).
Justice.
On justice and the entire question of what kind of country we want to be, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have scored zero with the ACLU (http://www.aclu.org/) and the Human Rights Campaign (http://www.hrc.org/), although I acknowledge that Latham recently moved up and delivered (for him) a very good year for peoples' rights with eighteen percent from the ACLU and five percent from the Human Rights Campaign.
People Who Work for a Living.
As to labor, Latham, Terry, and Tiberi have received scores of one hundred percent from the Business-Industry Political Action Committee (http://www.bipac.org/page.asp?g=bipac_new&content=startpage) and of zero percent from organizations like the Communications Workers of America (http://www.cwa-union.org/), the United Food and Commercial Workers (http://www.ufcw.org/), and Workplace Fairness (http://www.workplacefairness.org/).
Us v. Them.
On matters of us v. them Latham, Terry, and Tiberi scored zero with Citizens for Tax Justice (http://www.ctj.org/).
Conclusion.
I nominate the Iowa Fourth, the Nebraska Second, and the Ohio Twelfth for very early consideration by bloggers and internet activists thinking about 2010.
Democrat David Robinson (not that David Robinson), running against GOP Rep. Pat Tiberi in Ohio's 12th CD, has a bit of fun with his name in this introductory web ad, which is a send up of this Air Jordan commercial.
Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.
Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their "Red to Blue" program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.
As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio's filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.
Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.
Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.
The plethora of opportunities for House Democratic challengers in Ohio next year is a topic that both CQ Politics and MyDD's Jon Singer looked at recently. Between both sources, we can identify no fewer than seven potential offensive targets for Democrats this cycle. The following chart lists each possible targeted district by its PVI, the incumbent's margin of victory in 2006, and the Kerry/Bush and Gore/Bush margins in 2004 and 2000, respectively:
CD
Incumbent
PVI
'06 Margin
Kerry '04
Bush '04
Gore '00
Bush '00
OH-01
Chabot
R+0.5
4
49
51
46
51
OH-02
Schmidt
R+13.1
1
36
64
34
63
OH-03
Turner
R+2.9
17
46
54
45
52
OH-12
Tiberi
R+0.7
15
49
51
46
52
OH-14
LaTourette
R+2.2
18
47
53
44
52
OH-15
Pryce
R+1.1
<1
50
50
44
52
OH-16
Regula
R+3.6
17
46
54
42
53
With the exception of the 3rd, these districts have been trending more Democratic on the Presidential level since 2000. Despite shrewd gerrymandering by Ohio Republicans, with the right challengers, each of these seats could come into play.
OH-01: The DCCC thinks it has their man to finish what John Cranley started in his challenge to Republican Steve Chabot in 2006. State Rep. and Minority Whip Steve Driehaus, "a Democrat with a history of winning over Republican voters", has thrown his hat in the ring. On the one hand, Driehaus has a suburban political base that can help wear down Chabot in his strongest territories. On the other hand, Driehaus may lack the broader name recognition of Cranley, who was an at-large councilor in Cincinnati. On balance, though, Driehaus' resume looks good, and he should prove to be another credible challenger.
OH-02: No doubt about it; Jean Schmidt is a political time bomb set to go off every six months or so with another bizarre comment about bringing nuclear waste into her district or deriding the outrage over the Walter Reed scandal as "overblown" criticism. Jean Schmidt could very well be the worst politician of the decade, which is the only reason why Team Blue has a shot at winning this R+13 district. 2006 candidate Vic Wulsin is game for a rematch, and while it doesn't seem to take much to incite Schmidt into inflicting another wound on herself, the Democratic nominee in this district will have to deal with running against the Presidential headwind of a solidly Republican district. A tough challenge, to be sure, but Schmidt is destined to underperform, especially if she gets another primary challenge.
OH-03: This Dayton-based district was represented by Democrat Tony P. Hall from 1978-2002, but has since been occupied by Republican Mike Turner. Whatever hope Democrats had in sparking an upset last year unfortunately went down in flames after the Democratic nominee, Stephanie Studebaker, was arrested in a domestic dispute just three months before election day. Prosecutor Dick Chema was the last-minute replacement, and perhaps unsurprisingly fell short by roughly 17 points. Given that this district's Republican lean is less than heavy, a well-organized challenger with a good profile could perhaps do to Turner what Democrat Jason Altmire did to "rising star" Republican Melissa Hart in Pennsylvania last year, who held a similarly Republican-leaning seat with a long history of voting for Congressional Democrats.
OH-12: Republican Pat Tiberi convincingly repelled Swing State Project hero and near-octogenarian Bob Shamansky by a 15-point margin last November, but he did have to empty his $3 million war chest to do it. Tiberi shouldn't be able to escape 2008 with a free pass, especially in a trending Democratic district like this one.
OH-14: Democrats have an eager challenger to Republican Steve LaTourette: William O'Neill, a judge on the 11th District Court of Appeals in Ohio. O'Neill's recent claim to fame was winning 41% of the vote for the Ohio Supreme Court on a $1 budget in 2006, in principled opposition to the mixing of campaign contributions and judicial service. However, O'Neill claims he won't be nearly as stingy in his campaign against LaTourette. He intends to raise $1 million for the race, and will resign from the bench on June 15th and has already been in contact with the DCCC, according to comments attributed to him on the Buckeye State Blog. LaTourette, despite some family values hypocrisy and a district trending more Democratic on the Presidential level, has yet to face a top-shelf challenge this decade (no, Capri Cafaro doesn't count). If Judge O'Neill can bring the noize, this might be another unexpected defense for Republicans next year.
OH-15: After watching the disappointments of Lois Murphy and Diane Farrell in their four-year campaigns last cycle, I've become rather skeptical of the viability of most House rematches, barring special circumstances like scandal (e.g. Pombo/McNerney), and major strategic reorientation (e.g. Hodes/Bass, Boyda/Ryun). But Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy ran a strong challenge against Deborah Pryce last year, which is why I'm somewhat ambivalent about the brewing primary battle between her and fellow Franklin County Commissioner Paula Brooks. Pryce could be on unstable ground in 2008, but we'll need to sort out our side of the fence first.
OH-16: At age 82, Republican Ralph Regula is ripe for retirement. But even if this seat doesn't open up, Democrats plan on making an aggressive challenge after the no-profile, no-money Democrat Thomas Shaw scored a surprising 41.6% against the 34-year incumbent. According to the Buckeye State Blog, State Senator John Boccieri, an officer in the Air Force Reserve and a veteran of four tours in Operations Iraqi Freedom and Enduring Freedom, is strongly considering a bid for this seat. With a strong electoral track record and an excellent profile, Boccieri could prove to be a top-tier Democratic recruitment in the next cycle.
Seven districts, seven pressure points. Democrats probably won't win all of them, or even many of them, but that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be wise to push on all of these targets hard to keep Congressional Republicans focused on putting out as many brushfires as possible.
