• OH-Sen: This is about as far from the horse's mouth as you can get (paging Goldy?): The Columbus Dispatch is simply asserting that Republican Treasurer Josh Mandel "is leaning toward a run for the U.S. Senate in 2012 and will make an announcement this spring." They don't even say, "according to sources"-is that supposed to be implied or something? Anyhow, I'll wait for Young Master Josh to confirm, seeing as no one else is reporting this.
In other Ohio news, PPP has their miscellaneous report card available... and this time, it's extremely miscellaneous.
• CA-Gov (PDF): The Field Poll has preliminary job approval ratings for Gov. Jerry Brown, who has a pretty sharp-looking 48-21 score in the early going. But don't get too excited: Guess who had 54-15 approvals at the same point in his first term? Yep, that'd be Gray Davis (scroll down to p. 3 for the completely historical picture).
• NC-Gov (PDF): I'll be honest, PPP's regular NC-Gov polls were starting to all run together in my head, but this time, Tom Jensen & the gang tried something different: they tested a bunch of alternatives to the very unpopular incumbent Dem, Bev Perdue. The sad news for Team Blue, though, is that even our best hope, AG Roy Cooper, still trails likely GOP nominee Pat McCrory by a 43-35 margin, though that's better than Perdue's 50-36 gap. State Sen. Dan Blue (trailing 48-28) and Lt. Gov. Walter Dalton (trailing 47-27) don't change the equation, either. I also seriously doubt that Cooper would run; he was courted for Senate in 2009 but declined early on. He seems pretty happy where he is and, at age 53, can still wait a bit before deciding to move up. (I'm guessing 2016 vs. McCrory would be a good matchup.)
• WA-Gov: This is kind of meh, but if you like your tea weak, drink up.
• FL-26: No, that's not a typo! It's just another super-genious catch by Greg Giroux. Lunatic Karen Diebel, last seen losing the FL-24 GOP primary to now-Rep. Sandy Adams, has filed to run for Congress once again. What's awesome about this is that Diebel has kicked her DeLorean up to 88 miles per hour, since her paperwork says she plans to run in the as-yet-uncreated twenty-sixth congressional district. Click the PDF for the documentary proof. This should be great. (Click here if you need a refresher on Diebel's batshittery, including the infamous Snakes in a Pool incident.)
• IN-02: Former Republican state Rep. Jackie Walorski, best known as Wacky Jackie, surprised no one in formally announcing she'd seek a rematch against Rep. Joe Donnelly, something she'd been toying with ever since her narrow loss last fall. (Walorski blames Donnelly's one-point escape on the five percent a Libertarian Party candidate managed to snag.) Of course, two huge, inter-related questions remain here: What will the 2nd CD look like after redistricting, and will Donnelly seek re-election or try his hand at higher office? Stay tuned... for a while.
• NY-26: Janie's got an ad: Republican Jane Corwin is out with a second spot (her first was a bio ad) that hits themes as old as the hills: Dem Kathy Hochul wants to raise taxes, and she's a clone of Nancy Pelosi. NWOTSOTB, but the Corwin campaign claims that the ad is "is airing districtwide on broadcast," according to The Hill.
• OH-10: With his seat potentially headed for the carving board, Dennis Kucinich is obviously trying to win over as many friends as possible before the state legislature starts up the redistricting process. Kucinich said in an interview on Monday that President Obama's decision to order air strikes on Libya "would appear on its face to be an impeachable offense." (By the way, check out that PPP item up above - Kucinich has 27-40 favorables statewide.)
• PA-07: Now this is damn interesting. At that recent DCCC fundraiser in Philly we mentioned the other day, Steve Israel reportedly met with former Safe Schools Advocate Jack Stollsteimer about a potential run against freshman Rep. Pat Meehan, who took over Joe Sestak's old seat last cycle. Stollsteimer confirms he met with "party leaders," and says he's giving the race "serious consideration." But what makes all this so unusual is that Stollsteimer served as Meehan's press spokesperson for many years while Meehan was Delaware Co. DA and later U.S. Attorney! It's only been a few months, but Stollsteimer says he has "serious problems with what [Meehan]'s already done as our Congressman." Could be good!
• PA-08: That don't impress-a me much: the NRCC put out a press release attacking ex-Rep. Patrick Murphy for something or other, perhaps because they're concerned he might run for his old seat again. (That's possible, though he might also run for state AG.) But press releases are cheap, and who knows how many carbon-copy releases the NRCC put out, seeing as they don't put them all up on their website.
• LA-St. Sen.: They switch parties in Louisiana like Denny Hastert changes underwear-which is to say, not every day, but perhaps with some frequency. It should come as little surprise that the latest state legislator to don a not-so-fresh pair of tighty-whities is moving from D to R. But a diarist at Daily Kingfish points out that Norby Chabert (great name) isn't exactly some crusty Dixiecrat playing out the string-he's a freshman who has said publicly he voted for Obama, and was relentlessly attacked on that score during his first election campaign in 2009. It'll be interesting to see if the whole mess of recent converts like Chabert wind up getting teabagged to death.
• Philly Mayor: A judge denied Mayor Michael Nutter's request to remove wacky opponent Milton Street from the ballot, and Nutter said he would not appeal. (Nutter said that Street violated the city's residency requirements, which say you have to live in Philadelphia for three years before seeking office, because Street was serving out a sentence in a federal prison in Kentucky.)
• Wisconsin Recall: The RSLC-that's the Republican State Leadership Committee, the GOP equivalent of the DLCC-is going up with new television ads against Democratic state Sens. Jim Holperin and Dave Hansen, who sit in the two most Republican districts held by Dems and are the target of recall efforts. Neither district is really red, though-they were both lost by Kerry but won by Obama, making them more swingish than anything else. Politico notes that the RSLC has already been running ads against Holperin, and that the new buy is expect to cost $50K a week, while the anti-Hansen campaign will run "six figures over several weeks."
How is this for awesome, though? One Wisconsin totally busted the RSLC for using stock footage so fake, it was actually watermarked with the words "FILE FOOTAGE" in the bottom corner!
• Wisconsin Sup. Ct.: It was only a matter of time-and not that much. The WMC-Wisconsin's version of the Chamber of Commerce-is preparing to run ads in support of Republican David Prosser's campaign to stay on as justice. (I'm guessing these will be attack ads against JoAnne Kloppenburg.) Progressive groups are already on the air with a spot that equates Prosser with Gov. Scott Walker.
Meanwhile, in a candidate forum yesterday, Prosser's already infamous "I'll destroy you, bitch" comments of course came up-and he once again repeated his defense that, well, a bunch of women made him do it, by (as the AP put it) "ganging up on him." He also apparently failed to apologize for his remarks.
• Alaska: Yes, Alaska! While the state obviously doesn't have to worry about congressional redistricting, it does have to re-do its legislative maps. And believe it or not, the state actually has something of a Democratic gerrymander, since last time around, Dem Gov. Tony Knowles controlled key appointments to the panel responsible for producing new maps. This time, of course, Republicans control all the levers of power, so payback is expected.
• Maryland: MD has long been a popular target at SSP for redistricting plans, so I'm not sure there's much new here in Aaron Blake's latest state-by-state installment. But you geeks tell me!
• Mississippi: Dems in the state House voted to join that NAACP lawsuit I mentioned yesterday, which is seeking to enjoin the state from holding elections this year under the old district lines-something which could happen if the legislature stalemates on new maps, which is looking increasingly likely.
FL-Sen: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Kendrick Meek (D): 22
Marco Rubio (R): 39
Charlie Crist (I): 31
Undecided: 6
(MoE: ±4.4%)
FL-Gov: Suffolk (10/14-17, likely voters, no trendlines):
Alex Sink (D): 45
Rick Scott (R): 38
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.4%)
Misc.: In the AG race, Pam Bondi (R) leads Dan Gelber (D), 38-30. Also, a poll by Voter Survey Service (aka Susquehanna) for the right-wing Sunshine State News site has Adam Putnam (R) leading Scott Maddox (D) in the Ag Comm'r race, 40-35. Tea Party candidate Ira Chester takes 14%.
VA-05: Roanoke College (10/5-14, likely voters, no trendlines):
Tom Perriello (D-inc): 40
Rob Hurt (R): 46
Jeffrey Clark (I): 1
Undecided: 13
(MoE: ±4.1%)
WI-Gov: St. Norbert College (PDF) for Wisconsin Public Radio (10/12-15, likely voters, 3/23-31 in parens):
Tom Barrett (D): 41 (28)
Scott Walker (R): 50 (44)
Undecided: 6 (17)
(MoE: ±5%)
Margins & Errors: The Fix publishes an alleged WA-Sen poll without either field dates or sample size... Bill Kristol (yeah, that Bill Kristol) claims he has his hands on an OH-10 poll - he has the n, but won't say the pollster's name, who paid for the poll, or when it was taken... Pollster.com has a PDF from ccAdvertising with numbers for WV-Sen, WV-01, and WV-03 - but not only does ccA report to hundredths of a percent, they get taken to the woodshed by Mark Blumenthal for refusing to divulge the poll's sponsor
Following the break is a complete roundup and ranking of Ohio races for the U.S. House of Representatives. I have separated them into Republican-held and Democratic-held seats and divided each into tiers. Within each tier they are ranked in order of likelihood of changing parties.
Democrats were very successful in 2006 in winning a U.S. Senate seat, four out of five statewide offices, and a net gain of seven seats in the Ohio House of Representatives, but the U.S. House races were a relative disappointment. The party gained only one seat and watched two promising races end in narrow losses after recounts. In this cycle Ohio has three open GOP seats and perhaps four or five races altogether that already look very promising, with another two or three that could be added to that list. The DCCC has already added three races to their "Red to Blue" program and is likely to take an interest in at least two more. In other words, Ohio is once again a critical congressional battleground.
As a certified political junkie, I actually have the filing deadlines for each state on my calendar. Yesterday, Ohio's filing deadline came and went. Unlike Texas, which saw nine of their 32 incumbents wind up unopposed (including, unfortunately, six of their Republican incumbents), it is a full field of candidates in Ohio.
Furthermore, there are some interesting primary elections which will kick off the Buckeye State campaign season early in March.
Follow me past the jump for the list and the analysis.
Yesterday it was Cleveland City Councilor Joe Cimperman. Now it's North Olmsted Mayor Thomas O'Grady, who will kick off his primary campaign against Dennis Kucinich on Thursday. O'Grady becomes Kucinich's fourth challenger in the Democratic primary. A crowded primary means that Kucinich will have an easier time pulling in a plurality of votes (which is all he needs).
Interestingly, the Plain Dealer reports that Kucinich filled out a questionnaire for the local Democratic Party that indicates that he will run for another term, but some uncertainty still lingers here. We may not know for sure until January 4th, the state's filing deadline.
Cleveland City Councilman Joe Cimperman will announce Tuesday that he is running for his fellow Democrat's 10th Congressional seat, which includes the West Side of Cleveland and the city's western suburbs.
Kucinich refuses to say if he plans to seek a seventh term next year; the filing deadline is a month away.
If Kucinich does run for re-election, Cimperman, who represents downtown Cleveland, will be Kucinich's first serious challenger in either a primary or general election since he was elected to Congress in 1996. [...]
Cimperman said Kucinich's second bid for the White House triggered his decision to run against the one-time ally.
"The community needs a full-time congressman," said Cimperman, who lives just outside the district.
Cimperman joins Rosemary Palmer and Barbara Ferris in the primary, but he would appear to be Kucinich's first opponent who could bring a level of organization and a political track record to the table. In an article written last month, local columnist Brent Larkin described Cimperman as a potentially dangerous foe. But even if Kucinich's presidential ambitions are wearing the district's patience thin, he would be tough to beat, especially in a crowded primary.
Cimperman might be banking on a retirement by Kucinich, who has so far played coy on his re-election plans. Or he could be giving him a nudge.
In any event, this makes life a lot more complicated for Special K.
Using poor children as pawns is the nastiest sort of partisan politics. That Dennis Kucinich (D-OH), once a poor child himself, would stoop to this level by voting against the State Children's Health Insurance Program (S-CHIP) shows that his desire to become president has surpassed his ability to support progressive values.
This bill would have expanded an already successful program to provide health insurance to millions of children across the country. It takes some twisted logic for someone who claims to support health care coverage for all to oppose this necessary and overdue move in the right direction.
It wasn't perfect, Kucinich expounded, because it didn't include children who are legal aliens. He took the opportunity to promote his own universal health care bill, HR 676, which would cover both children and adults as a better choice - despite the fact that it is not going anywhere soon.
According to the Buckeye State Blog, Presidential candidate and Ohio Rep. Dennis Kucinich is set to face a major new primary opponent for his Cleveland-based House seat:
Over the weekend I spoke with two reliable sources. One source confirmed that he had spoken with Dean directly, and Dean claimed to be committed to the race. Another source confirmed that throughout the summer (notably August) DePiero had been busy cultivating donors. Also, I've heard multiple whispers that a poll may've been commissioned already, but I don't have further info there.
I have no details on kick off, entrance, official word from Dean or any of that. Calls placed to DePiero's campaign office on Wednesday have gone unreturned. However, I repeat, one of my sources spoke with DePiero directly, and Dean claimed he was in the race.
DePiero, a former state representative and Ohio House Minority Leader, would offer Kucinich his stiffest challenge yet, forcing the candidate to spend less time on the Presidential trail and more time in his own district. This could have huge implications on the local and national level.
According to the Cleveland Plain Dealer's Blog, Paul Hackett, an Iraq Vet and former Democratic candidate in the 2005 special election for Ohio's 2nd district, is set to re-enter the political fray today with a characteristically bold splash: flipping the (metaphorical) bird to Presidential candidate Dennis Kucinich by endorsing his primary challenger, Rosemary Palmer:
Iraq war veteran and short-time U.S. Senate candidate Paul Hackett tomorrow will announce his support for Rosemary Palmer, who's trying to move Dennis Kucinich out of Congress.
Palmer, running for the 10th Congressional District nomination, has a tough challenge, but if Hackett were to truly get involved, he might draw some attention for Palmer.
Palmer's 23-year-old son, Lance Cpl. Edward "Augie" Schroeder II, was killed in Iraq two years ago. A former teacher, Palmer says that Kucinich seems too preoccupied with his quest to become president to represent the district well. [...]
Hackett's involvement in Palmer's race "adds instant credibility," says Anthony Fossaceca, Palmer's campaign manager. It tells voters that she's serious and that, like Hackett, she's willing to go against the grain, he says.
"And it means a lot more now coming from Paul," Fossaceca says, "who doesn't do many of these."
Say what you will about Hackett, but he's never too coy to rock the boat. Kucinich has not had any problems dispatching primary challengers as of late, but this edition is set to make a bit more noise than what Special K has been used to dealing with.
