9:51PM: Well, this thread is getting a bit obese. Let's move this discussion over here.
9:45PM: Get ready for a runoff between Elaine Marshall (37%) and DSCC fave Cal Cunningham (27%) in North Carolina.
9:43PM: With half the vote in, Krikorian leads Yalamanchili by 40-34.
9:38PM: So, er, looks like we jumped to conclusions a bit in IN-09 - Hankins is now fewer than 300 votes behind Young. But it still looks like Young is favored.
9:37PM: Risk loses Kamchatka. The AP calls IN-08 for Larry Bucshon. (Hey teabaggers -- vote for Trent out of spite!)
9:35PM: The AP calls OH-02 for Jean Schmidt. She scored 62% of the vote this time.
9:33PM: Unreal. Looks like Dan Burton is gonna live again -- he's at 29.7% of the vote, just over 2000 votes head of Luke Messer with 4 precincts outstanding. What a pathetic showing for Burton!
9:25PM: Despite Travis Hankins' exciting late surge, Todd Young has pulled away with an almost 2K vote lead. Less than 10% of the vote is outstanding, which means that fewer than 5K more ballots are still out there. Almost impossible to make up that gap. (And incidentally, Mike Sodrel pulled back into second place.)
9:22PM: Elaine Marshall's share of the vote keeps slipping downward. She's now just above 37%.
9:09PM: With 477 of 587 precincts in, Todd Young leads Travis Hankins by 225 votes in IN-09.
9:03PM: With 9.5% of the vote in, Lee Fisher leads Jennifer Brunner by 56-44.
9:00PM: I note that Dan Coats won his nomination with about the same percentage as Alexi Giannoulias won his.
8:53PM: Whoa, check out IN-09 -- Young leads teabagger Travis Hankins by 34-33, with 30% for Sodrel. Still about a fifth of the vote left to count there.
8:51PM: Risk is now back up by 31-29 in IN-08, but there are still 71 Bucshon-friendly precincts outstanding in Evansville left to count.
8:49PM: Whoa mama joe! In Ohio, it's still 52-48 Fisher with 7% of the vote in.
8:47PM: Worth noting: Neither Kissell nor Shuler's primary opponent filed an FEC report, and Shuler's guy doesn't even have a contribution link on his website.
8:46PM: The problem for Dan Burton? He has no strongholds left, and his Hamilton County performance is quite weak. This should be very close.
8:45PM: Buschon now up by 31-30 based on his strength in Evansville. 2/3rds of the vote now in.
8:43PM: Almost 2/3rds of the votes are now counted in IN-05, and Burton leads Messer by 31-28. The Hamilton County votes, which are starting to come in now, are split 25-25-25 for Burton, Messer, and McGoff.
8:41PM: The AP calls the Indiana Senate primary for Dan Coats.
8:41PM: Note that both Shuler and Kissell voted against healthcare -- are we seeing some fallout there?
8:38PM: NC-11: And Heath Shuler is up just 57-43 against Aixa Wilson.
8:37PM: NC-08: Dem Rep. Larry Kissell up just 60-40 against challenger from the left with 15% in.
8:36PM: A bit over half of the vote is in, and Dan Burton leads Luke Messer by 32-30.
8:29PM: Risk only up 12 votes in IN-08, 30-30, she'll continue to lose ground as more of Vanderburgh County comes in.
8:26PM: Harold Johnson leads D'Annuzio by 35-34 in NC-08. Looks like a runoff is a live possibility here.
8:25PM: Now that a bit over a quarter of the vote is in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 38-28. Ken Lewis is at 15.
8:22PM: With a bit over half the vote counted in IN-09, Young leads Sodrel by 37-31, while teabagger Travis Hankins is close behind with 29%.
8:21PM: Teabagger Kristi Risk now only leads Buschon by 300 votes in IN-08, now that Evansville (Buschon's home base) is starting to report.
8:19PM: In NC-08, Harold Johnson leads businessman Tim D'Annuzio by 37-34. Looks like that's just the early vote, though.
8:18PM: NC-10: McHenry comfortably ahead with a small number of votes in, 60-25.
8:16PM: Check out OH-16, where Matt Miller is leading NRCC fave Jim Renacci by 72-23 thanks to some early votes in in Ashland, his home county.
8:13PM: The bean counters at SSP labs think that a runoff is likely in North Carolina. There's a huge chunk of eastern NC that's largely African-American where Ken Lewis is going to do better than he's been doing right now, as well as Durham/Mecklenburg counties outstanding.
8:11PM: With under half of the vote in, teabagger Kristi Risk leads DC-backed surgeon Larry Buschon by 31-26. Wow!
8:10PM: The AP has called IN-02 for Wacky Jackie Walorski.
8:09PM: IN-09: Todd Young leads Mike Sodrel 38-33, with Travis Hankins back at 26.
8:08PM: In North Carolina, the Senate race is now 39M-27C-16L, but as Tom Jensen points out, the minor candidates may force this into a runoff.
8:04PM: With just 11 precincts in (but also a big chunk of votes in from Franklin County), Fisher leads Brunner by 52-48 in Ohio.
8:00PM: The AP has declared GOP Rep. Mark Souder the winner of his primary. I'm kind of surprised!
7:57PM: Dan Burton is in a very tight race. With 40% in, he leads Messer by 33-31.
7:56PM: IN-04: Rokita crushing 45-18 with about a third of the vote in.
7:56PM: IN-03: Souder very likely to hold on - 49-34 with 72% in.
7:55PM: IN-02: Wacky Jackie now up 57-31 with 43% in.
7:48PM: With the early vote in North Carolina in, Elaine Marshall leads Cal Cunningham by 39.5% to 26%.
7:42PM: Kristi Risk now ahead by just 15 votes in IN-08 (216 of 635 precincts reporting).
7:40PM: With 28% of precincts in statewide, Dan Coats leads Marlin Stutzman by 42%-30%.
The primary season gets underway in earnest this week, with contests in Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio tomorrow. Additionally, Utah's state GOP convention is on Saturday. Also note that North Carolina has a top-two run-off (scheduled for June 22nd) for any races where the leading candidate fails to clear 40% in the first round. (For a complete primary & run-off calendar, click here.) Below is a roundup of some of the key races to watch for:
IN-Sen(R): This may well be the most interesting primary on Tuesday. It's a true ground zero face-off between the establishment and the teabaggers. In one corner is Dan Coats, who couldn't get more bougie if he tried. Not only is he a former Senator, he's spent the last decade as a Washington lobbyist for a host of unsavory clients. In the other corner... well, there are two corners. One is occupied by certified nutball ex-Rep. John Hostettler, who is as allergic to raising money as he is to sanity. The latter quality has endeared him to the base, but the former is a big obstacle to, well, winning. Which leaves state Sen. Marlin Stutzman, who has been eating a good portion of Hostettler's lunch - among other things, he's secured the endorsement of Jim DeMint, the patron saint of hopeless right-wing primary candidates. There's been precious little polling of the race, but what we've seen indeed suggests that Stutzman and Hostettler are splitting the crazies, which could allow Coats to sneak through with a very underwhelming vote total. This is one of those races where it's just hard for a Democrat to say who we'd be better off with as our opponent - they're all great! (David)
IN-02(R): Most people have assumed that state Rep. Jackie Walorski - "Wacky Jackie" to those who know her best - will be the GOP's nominee in the 2nd, as she was the NRCC's prize pick and she's well-known (as a former local TV news reporter and a member of GOP leadership in the state House). She still faces a challenge from Jack Jordan, the president of the Bremen school board. Despite a long stint as an executive at local pharma company Eli Lilly, Jordan seems to be working the angry average-guy angle, and if there's a year to be doing that, it's this year. (Crisitunity)
IN-03(R): Republican incumbent Mark Souder, a notorious under-performer in this deeply Republican district, may finally be running out of rope. A recent SUSA poll only gave Souder a 35-29 edge over auto dealer Bob Thomas, with attorney and former Dan Coats staffer Phil Troyer gobbling up nearly 20%. One way or the other, though, Souder's time in Congress is rapidly coming to a close -- he recently told Brian Howey that he's strongly inclined to retire in 2012 if he survives this dogfight. The winner of this pie fight gets to face '06 Democratic nominee Tom Hayhurst, a physician and former Fort Wayne city councilor. (James)
IN-04(R): With incumbent Republican Steve Buyer making this term his last in this deeply Republican suburban donut district, the GOP primary is where it's at. Secretary of State Todd Rokita may think he has control of the two turntables and the microphone in this race, but state Sen. Brandt Hershman has been raising a respectable sum of cash - and has Buyer's endorsement. State Sen. Mike Young is also in the mix, but his fundraising is barely existent. (J)
IN-05(R): If there was ever a year to give GOP Rep. Dan Burton's ass the boot, it's this one. After winning a surprisingly close primary contest against former Marion County Coroner John McGoff, four viable Republicans have stepped up to challenge Burton this year - including McGoff again. Joining them are state Rep. Mike Murphy, ex-state Rep. Luke Messer, and former Dan Quayle/Dan Coats staffer Brose McVey. With a field chopped up in so many ways, Burton just may survive. (J)
IN-08(R): Republicans were caught off guard in this district after Democrats managed to beam up incumbent Rep. Brad Ellsworth to the Senate race, and they lack a well-known name to take advantage of this open seat. However, NRCC-types like surgeon Larry Buschon, who has managed to bank a decent amount of coin for his bid. However, he'll have to fight through a field crowded with seven other candidates, including teabagger fave Kristi Risk. The theory swirling around the tubes is that, since this district is ground zero for John Hostettler nut-wing Republicans, Hoss's Senate campaign may excite enough 'baggers to threaten Buschon. It'd be surprisng if this one plays out that way, though. (J)
IN-09(R): Douchebag ex-Rep. Mike Sodrel is making his fifth crack at this seat, but he's facing somewhat stiff competition in the primary from attorney Todd Young, who seems to be the favorite of an establishment tired of the retread Sodrel. Also waiting in the wings is teabagger Travis Hankins, who has raised enough scrilla to keep himself in the game. (J)
NC-Sen(D): North Carolina Democrats will head to the polls to give either Secretary of State Elaine Marshall, ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham, and attorney Ken Lewis the right to take on anonymous frosh GOP Sen. Richard Burr in November. One of these candidates will need to break the 40% barrier in order to avoid a June runoff. While no one has polled close to that marker yet, local boy Tom Jensen is betting that one of Cunningham (the man with the money) or Marshall (the name you know) will cross that barrier. (J)
NC-08(R): Republicans have been licking their chops over the chance to dethrone Larry Kissell after just one term in the House, but their field of candidates is decidedly second-tier. Businessman Tim d'Annunzio has spent nearly $1 million, making him something of a favorite - but he's also racked up a long list of unflatteringincidents on the campaign trail that suggest his campaign, though well-funded, is completely unhinged. D'Annuzio will face ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson, retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, and engineer Hal Jordan in the primary. It wouldn't be a shock to see this one go to a runoff. (J)
NC-11(R): This one may not rank very highly on the GOP's target list, but Republicans have a number of warm bodies in the race against sophomore Dem Rep. Heath Shuler, in case things get interesting. Businessman Jeff Miller and ophthalmologist Dan Eichenbaum have both spent over $100K on their campaigns as of mid-April, while Hendersonville Mayor Greg Newman is running on spare change and a pocketful of dreams. (J)
OH-Sen(D): Two Democrats are fighting for the right to take on Republican Rob Portman, the former congressman and Bush budget director: Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. Fisher, who's enjoyed a sizable fundraising edge as well as support from the DSCC, has seen his lead expand a good deal in recent public polling. Turnout will probably be low, which always increases unpredictability, so it may not be quite a done deal - but Fisher is looking pretty good. (D)
OH-02(D): The choice for Dems is between Surya Yalamanchili, a former star of the reality show "Apprentice," and novelty playing-cards mogul David Krikorian, who took 18% as an independent in 2008. "Chili," as he is known, has not raised very much but appears to have consolidated the support of much of the local establishment (including endorsements from the past two Dem nominees in the district, Vic Wulsin and Paul Hackett). Meanwhile, Krikorian (a self-described "Reagan conservative") seems to have ticked a few people off and apparently mocked his opponent's name at a recent campaign event. Not pretty. (D)
OH-02(R): Jean Schmidt, who hasn't been in Congress all that long, has faced serious primary challenges in both of her re-election campaigns, escaping by just 5% in 2006 and a somewhat more respectable 18% in 2008. Part of the reason Schmidt survived both times is because of the split field facing her. The same is true this year. Warren County commissioner Mike Kilburn is probably Schmidt's most legitimate challenger, but Some Dudes Debbi Alsfelder and Tim Martz are also in the race. Kilburn has only raised $30K, though, while Schmidt has spent more than $400 grand. Still, with anti-incumbent sentiment running as high as it has in ages, and with Schmidt being Schmidt, I suppose you never know. (D)
OH-16(R): Businessman and former smalltown mayor Jim Renacci is the NRCC's favorite here, and he's raised over half a million to date (plus he's given himself a $120K loan). But he's facing a challenge from his right in the form of Matt Miller, a former Ashland County Commissioner. Miller is no run-of-the-mill teabagger. In 2006, he pulled in 42% of the vote against incumbent Rep. Ralph Regula (who was running what would be his last race). And in 2008, with the seat open, Miller came within 5 points of snatching the nomination from establishment-preferred state Sen. Kirk Schuring. Against this history, Renacci has already spent $500K to Miller's tiny $24K. An upset is a definite possibility here. The winner takes on freshman Rep. John Boccierri. (D)
OH-18(R): In a somewhat similar scenario, state Sen. Bob Gibbs is the GOP bigs' favorite to challenge sophomore Rep. Zack Space. Classically, this means that Gibbs is hated by the teabag set, and he faces some real opposition, especially given his un-awesome fundraising. Fred Dailey, the 2008 nominee who got splattered by Space 60-40, is running, and he's been howling loudly about the alleged "favoritism" the establishment has shown toward Gibbs. The other notable candidate is Jeanette Moll, who lost to Dailey in the primary last cycle and has run radio ads attacking Gibbs as a tax-increasing libruhl. Both this race and the contest in the 16th CD ought to provide an interesting read on how big the split really is between the grassroots and the powers-that-be in the Republican Party. (D)
UT-Sen(R): Saturday is D-Day for Bob Bennett, who seems poised to become the first incumbent member of the Senate to fall this year. Oddly, though, the voters may not even get to take the chance to take their anger out on him, because he may not be able to make it out of the state Republican convention onto the primary ballot. In fact, Bennett would probably prefer that the broader population of primary voters, rather than the right-wing activists who dominate the convention, decide his fate. That's because a variety ofpolls ofconvention delegates suggest that Bennett will be hard pressed to even make it to the final round of balloting (where Mike Lee and Tim Bridgewater seem to poll better). And even if Bennett somehow does make it to the final round against Lee, Lee is likely to consolidate all the anti-Bennett votes and clear the 60% mark needed to nail down the GOP nomination without a primary. Bennett is by no means a moderate, but he's guilty of occasionally trying to legislate in conjunction with Democrats, which in this climate means he's likely to get his walking papers. (C)
KY-Sen: Obnoxious theocrat James Dobson is endorsing establishment dude Trey Grayson over weirdo Rand Paul. It feels like it's gotten late early around here, with Grayson badly trailing in the last few polls, so you gotta wonder whether this or anything else can make much of a difference.
NV-Sen: According to Reid Wilson, the Tea Party Express (the political action wing, such as it is, of the teabaggers) says they'll spend $100 to $150K on behalf of wingnut favorite Sharron Angle. Angle's trailed pretty badly in most polling, though.
OH-Sen: With Ohio's primary around the corner, the Hotline is reporting that the DSCC will apparently step into the race on Lee Fisher's behalf. The not-terribly-well-funded Fisher is facing off against the almost-penniless Jennifer Brunner, but apparently Bob Menendez doesn't want to take any chances.
WI-Sen: One-time beer baron Dick Leinenkugel officially decided to join the now-crowded GOP field hoping to take on Sen. Russ Feingold. Leinenkugel's chief problem appears to be the fact that he just resigned as the governor's Commerce Secretary... and the governor of Wisconsin is Jim Doyle, a Democrat. The Kugel's new opponents were, needless to say, quick to point this out.
AZ-Gov: A couple of tidbits from a PPP poll that is slated to be released later today:
• Brewer has seen a significant improvement in her job approval numbers with Republicans. When we looked at the state in September she was under water even with voters of her own party, as 37% of them expressed disapproval of her job performance while only 28% felt she was doing a good job. Now 54% of Republicans approve of her and only 27% disapprove, so she's seen a good deal of improvement on that front, which should be particularly helpful for her prospects of winning nomination for a full term against a crowded field of primary opponents.
• At the same time Democratic candidate Terry Goddard leads Brewer 71-25 with Hispanics. That may seem ho hum, but consider this: Barack Obama only won Hispanic voters in the state by a 56-41 margin. So Goddard's outperforming him by more than 30 points there. And on our September poll Goddard was up just 53-33 with Hispanics so it's a 26 point improvement on the margin even relative to that.
FL-22: Combustible Republican Allen West is flashing an internal poll (from Wilson Research Strategies) which allegedly has him up 44-42 over incumbent Dem Ron Klein.
IN-09: Todd Young, seeking the GOP nod against ultra-retread Mike Sodrel, has a new ad up on TV, trying to paint himself as the "true conservative" choice. To CQ's credit, they asked how much is being spent on the ad. To the Young campaign's discredit, they declined to say.
MI-01: The Republican field in this race is getting' mighty crowded here, too. GOP state Sen. Jason Allen, who is term-limited, is the latest to seek the Republican nod to replace Bart Stupak.
Fundraising: CQ has a handy chart of pre-primary fundraising filings in the three states which have primaries next week: Indiana, North Carolina, and Ohio.
Immigration: The Hill surveys the races out West where Arizona's new immigration law may bolster Latino turnout - and help Dems. Jon Ralston notes that Brian Sandoval, the GOP's would-be savior in the NV-Gov race, has come out in favor of the law. This could all get very ugly - well, even uglier than it already is.
FL-Sen: It's official: Charlie Crist wants to lose. He definitively says he won't run as an independent, "once and for all." Given the way his statement is worded, though, he could still run as a Democrat.
KY-Sen: Is the Rand Paul money train slowing down? Trey Grayson raised $733K in Q1, topping Paul's $630K. Given that Paul is the only Paulist running much of a campaign this cycle, I'm wondering why his freakazoid coterie hasn't raised more for him. What's more, Grayson is touting an internal poll from Jan van Lohuizen showing him with a narrow 39-37 primary lead - the first time we've seen a good poll for Grayson in some time. This is a case when I'd expect Paul to produce a dueling internal - if he has a decent one.
NV-Sen: I got awful tired of this kind of story after Mark Sanford managed not to resign despite multiple stories, week after week, of people "pressuring" him to quit. So the fact that a couple of Republican semi-bigs in NV want John Ensign to go don't impress-a me much. You want to get someone to drop out, you need to threaten to support a credible primary challenger and cut off their fundraising. And hell, even that doesn't always work. (Just look at Gov. Jim Gibbons!)
UT-Sen: Looks like Sen. Bob Bennett is ignoring his job in order to try and save it. Congress is on a recess right now and will reconvene next week, but Bennett is going to stay behind in Utah to campaign until the May 8th GOP caucus. While Bennett probably can't get the 60% of convention votes he would need to secure the Republican nomination, he can try to block someone else from doing so, thus forcing a primary in June.
FL-Gov: Alex Sink has parted ways with her campaign manager, Paul Dunn, who came on board last year after managing Rep. Suzanne Kosmas's 2008 campaign. "Longtime Sink confidante" Jim Cassady will take over the helm.
CA-36: Marcy Winograd, challenging Rep. Jane Harman in the primary, succeeded in denying Harman the "pre-endorsement" of the California Democratic Party by collecting 300 delegate signatures. Now the fight for the party's endorsement goes to the floor of the state convention, which meets in L.A. next week. Winograd can still fight on to the June primary regardless of what happens with the endorsement, though.
GA-08: Some Paulist is dropping out of the GOP primary to spend more time with her gold bullion. Valerie Meyers says she won't continue in the race to challenge Dem Rep. Jim Marshall. WMAZ (click the link) has a good primer on who else is still in the running.
HI-01: The Asian American Action Fund, a pro-Dem group, is slamming the DCCC for getting involved in the race, and particularly for siding with the white guy. The organization isn't hesitating to point out that Hawaii's 1st CD is 58% Asian and Pacific Islander. Meanwhile, Republican Charles Djou is - as James Hell envisaged - attacking the DCCC as a "mainland group" and criticizing its "outside interference." If Djou's framing takes hold, it's possible that both Colleen Hanabusa and Ed Case will get tainted as a result. That would be just great - and eminently predictable. (BTW, Hanabusa says she raised $450K in Q1.)
PA-04: Labor leader Jack Shea, who had been considering a write-in or independent challenge to Dem Rep. Jason Altmire on account of his vote against healthcare reform, has decided against a run.
PA-08: Zoiks! Republican Mike Fitzpatrick's campaign tells PoliticsPA that they raised $500K in just two months. Fitzpatrick is trying to win his seat back from Rep. Patrick Murphy.
PA-12: A source tells the Hill that the NRCC plans to go up with some TV ads in the special election to fill Jack Murtha's seat. Aaron Blake recites my favorite line, though: "There is no indication as to the size of the NRCC buy." They'll have to file an independent expenditure report soon enough, though (if this buy is for real).
TN-08: Somewhere in the Sonoran Desert, John McCain's head just exploded. That's because one Robert Kirkland just filed an independent expenditure report... on behalf of his brother, Ronald. What hath McCain-Feingold wrought? Now these two can't even speak to one another at the family Fourth of July barbecue!
WV-01: Some fundraising numbers from Republican candidates in West Virginia. David McKinley says he's raised $300K, while Sarah Minear has raised $272K (but a quarter mil of that was a self-loan). Mac Warner, a third candidate, hasn't released any nums yet.
North Carolina: SEIU says it's trying to form a new third party in NC, called North Carolina First, with the goal of running candidates in this fall's elections. The Tarheel State is home to three Dems who voted "no" on healthcare reform: Heath Shuler, Mike McIntyre and Larry Kissell. SSP rates Shuler and Kissell as Likely Dem and McIntyre as Safe Dem, but a third-party challenge from the left could of course alter that calculus.
Data: A new site called Transparency Data is offering contributor data for the last twenty years... for federal and state races. Looks like a good one to bookmark.
It is a popular today to say that the South has switched from voting Democratic to Republican. Many people are fond of looking at previous electoral maps. Hey, isn't that funny - the states have completely switched parties. It's like the Republicans have recreated the Solid South.
That statement is unequivocally false. Most people have no idea how unbelievably Democratic the Solid South was. For half a century, Democrats in the Deep South did about as well as the Communist Party did in Soviet Union elections.
Let's take a look at a model Republican southern state: Alabama. John McCain won 60.32% of the vote here, his second best showing in the South. Below are the counties in which Mr. McCain won over 70% of the vote (all my statistics below are from http://www.uselectionatlas.org/ - an amazing website).
That's a lot of counties. The Republicans are doing quite well - about as well as the Democrats used to do in Alabama, many would say.
Here is another map, filled with blue counties.
It is the 1940 presidential election. I invite you to guess - what do these blue counties represent? Counties in which Roosevelt won over 70% of the vote? 80%? 90%? Remember, Roosevelt was quite a popular guy. He must have done pretty well in Alabama, part of the Solid South.
2010 will be a key year in North Carolina politics. There has been some discussion on whether my home state has officially "seceded" from the South. 2010 (and 2012) will probably direct us on whether the Tar Heel state will become more reliably Democratic for the next generation.
NC-Sen Richard Burr is not popular, and he is not unpopular. The truth of the matter, Burr is unknown by a large portion of the electorate. Enter in Cal Cunningham and Elaine Marshall, and we will see a healthy Democratic primary (Elaine is a class act, and Cal seems to be a true progressive). This seat is a Tossup.
NC-01 G.K. Butterfield (D) will be re-elected. Period.
NC-02 If Bob Etheridge (D) does not run for the US Senate, he will be easily re-elected. If he doesn't run, this seat will be a tossup. Etheridge relates well in this area, but at the same time he represents a mildly conservative district.
NC-03 Until 1994, Walter B. Jones Jr.(R) was a Democrat! Few know that his father was a representative for 28 years. His father was a moderate/conservative Democrat. That being said, Walter Jr. is popular in his conservative district, and as Republicans go, he doesn't mind voting against his party.
NC-04 David Price (D) (my representative) will win in a cakewalk.
NC-05 Virginia Foxx (R)is not as popular in her very conservative district as many might think. However, barring a scandal Foxx will be re-elected.
NC-06 Howard Coble (R) will win easily if he runs for re-election (he will be 79 in 2010). If he doesn't run, whomever wins the Republican primary will win the general election. This is a very conservative district.
NC-07 Mike McIntyre (D) is a blue dog that represents his district well. He will have no problem being re-elected.
NC-08 Larry Kissell (D) will have a fight on his hands even if the GOP can only pursuade a 2nd-rate candidate. I think Kissell wil win, but he will probably get no more than 55-58% of the vote. This district is culturally conservative, but a populist Democrat can (and will) prevail.
NC-09 Sue Myrick (R) will win re-election with little problem.
NC-10 Patrick McHenry (R) will win this race although he's probably not as popular as you might think in a conservative district. Unfortunately, the very young McHenry will become more entrenched as the years go by.
NC-11 Heath Shuler (D) knows how to play this district well. A good challenger could defeat Shuler, but Shuler should win easier as the years go by.
NC-12 Mel Watt (D) will win this election as long as he has the desire to run. There is no indication that he wants to step down.
NC-13 Brad Miller (D) will be safe barring (a) another economic meltdown and (b) a personal scandal. I don't consider a divorce will be much of a factor.
In conclusion, the Democrats have one race where they might pick up (NC-Sen), but they will have to play some defense in NC-08. Also, if Bob Etheridge or Mike McIntyre leave their districts, the Democrats will have to play some defense.
I have been working on a concept I'm calling PBI or Party Brand Index, as a replacement for PVI. PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging voting percentage from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to how the nation as a whole voted, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn't explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who's PVI indicates a Democrat shouldn't win, yet Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is this the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?
Secondly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The main purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but compared to how their generic PARTY would be expected to perform. This week I'll tackle North Carolina.
Now that all 9 Democratic pick-up states plus NE-02 have been analysed, I have also provided an exhaustive and most unique non-partisan summary of the pick-up states. I can guarantee you that there is information in this summary that you will not find anywhere else in this quality, clarity or combination.
There are a number of side-documents that go with the summary, plus links to all of the nine analyses and the GE 2008 final analysis for the entire Union.
I want to explain again that I have farmed this kind of thing out to Google Docs as it makes it easier for me to publish charts, tables and graphics. It is my hope that you will read the summary in it's entirety. There are surprises all over the place that only become apparent when one scratches under the surface and researches the GE 2008 at the county level, county for county. In the case of the 9.25 pick-ups, we are talking about 696 counties.
The summary is divided into 2 parts and all of this information is after the jump.
So you all know the drill by now - take some VTDs, consolidate them to reflect updated population stats, then piece them together. I couldn't think of a witty title today either. Oh well.
My goals for North Carolina were to:
strengthen Kissell (8th) and Shuler (11th)
draw Foxx (5th) out of her district
obey the VRA - that is, a majority-black district for Butterfield (1st) and a majority-minority district for Watt (12th)
maintain percentages for the other Democrats: Etheridge (2nd), Price (4th), McIntyre (7th), and Miller (13th)
get rid of that touch-point continuity in Guilford County between the 6th (Coble) and the 13th
Update: Many of you have correctly pointed out that NC may be gaining a 14th seat. There's a plan for that in the works too.
Here's the new map (yes, everything is contiguous!):
From December 2007 to March 2008, I wrote various drafts of a proposal on how our political parties -- starting in 2012 -- might adopt primary election procedures that would better serve our country in selecting presidential candidates. I originally drafted a hypothetical calendar for 2008, based on general election results from 2004. Now that we have the results for 2008, I can now propose a calendar specific to 2012.
The system by which our parties choose their presidential candidates has proven itself to be, at best, highly questionable -- at worst, severely flawed.
The primary calendar we need most is one that is built on an orderly and rational plan -- one that is based on mathematics and on recent historical outcomes -- and not on an arbitrary, publicity-driven, system of one-upsmanship. The change I propose would provide for a more effective, equitable process than the one we have now.
The following factors are the key ones to consider:
Margin of Victory
- The state primaries would be placed in order according to the leading candidates' margins of victory in the preceding general election -- with the states registering the closest margins of victory going first.
For example, John McCain won Missouri by 0.1% and Barack Obama won North Carolina by 0.4%; conversely, McCain won Wyoming by 33%, and Obama won Hawaii by 45%. Therefore, the primary calendar I propose would commence with primaries being held in states such as Missouri and North Carolina -- and would close with such states as Wyoming and Hawaii.
- The purpose of ordering the states according to the margin of victory is to help the parties determine which candidates can appeal to those states that have found themselves most recently on the Electoral Divide. A narrow margin in the general election is reflective of an evenly divided electorate. In this scenario, a candidate who appeals to, say, Florida and Montana is more likely to appeal to a greater number of Americans on the whole.
Iowa, New Hampshire, and Fairness
- Iowa and New Hampshire might object to this new system, given their longstanding tradition of being the first states to cast their ballots. However, so long as Iowa and New Hampshire retain their record of being fairly bipartisan states, they'll maintain their position towards the front of the primary schedule.
- Just because a state should have its primary later in the season does not mean that that state will prove invaluable to the process. Indiana and North Carolina weren't held until May 6th, but those two states might have very well decided the fate of the 2008 Democratic nomination.
- This new system allows other states to play a greater role in how the parties select their candidates. For example, Missouri and North Carolina would be two of the states to get the limelight in 2012. Likewise, based on the results to come in November of 2012, a still-different slate of states could have a more significant role come 2016. A rotating system will be healthier and fairer.
Groupings of Five, and Timing & Spacing
- By placing states into groupings of five, no one state will be overly emphasized on any given date.
- Candidates will still need to address the concerns of individual states, whilst having to maintain an overall national platform. For example, a candidate will be less able to campaign against NAFTA in Ohio whilst campaigning for it in Florida.
- Given that each state has its own system for electing its delegates, these groupings of five states will act as an overall balancer. Ideally, caucuses will be done away with altogether by 2012. However -- should that not happen -- states with caucuses, states with open primaries, and states with closed primaries can all coexist within a grouping, therefore no one system will hold too much influence on any given date.
- Racial and geographic diversity in this process has been a great concern for many. The narrowest margins of victory in 2008 were in a wide variety of regions -- the Midwest, the Great Lakes, the Mid-Atlantic, the South, and the West.
- All parties would have an interest in addressing these narrow-margined states early on. The incumbent will want to win over those states that were most in doubt of him in the previous election, and opposing parties will want to put forth candidates who have the best chance of winning over those very same states.
- Primaries will be held biweekly, giving candidates and the media enough time to process and respond to the outcomes of each wave of primaries.
- Washington DC will be placed in the same grouping as whichever state -- Virginia or Maryland -- is closer to its own margin of victory.
- American Samoa, Guam, Puerto Rico, and Americans Abroad -- not having Electoral votes of their own -- will determine their own primary dates, so long as they occur between the first grouping and the last grouping.
Under these guidelines, the proposed calendar for the 2012 primary season is:
January 2012
Tue, 1/10
Missouri
North Carolina
Indiana
Florida
Montana
Tue, 1/24
Ohio
Georgia
Virginia
Colorado
South Dakota
Tue, 2/7
North Dakota
Arizona
South Carolina
Iowa
New Hampshire
Tue, 2/21
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
Texas
Nevada
West Virginia
Tue, 2/26
Mississippi
Wisconsin
New Jersey
New Mexico
Tennessee
Tue, 3/6
Kansas
Nebraska
Oregon
Kentucky
Michigan
Tue, 3/20
Washington
Maine
Louisiana
Arkansas
Alabama
Tue, 4/3
Connecticut
California
Illinois
Delaware
Maryland
Washington DC
