The following map was drawn to resemble the potential product of a possible non-partisan independent redistricting commission which has been proposed but unlikely to be implemented in North Carolina. The goals I had for drawing the districts consisted of geographic compactness, relevant communities of interest without regard to incumbency, and maintaining a VRA-protected black majority district in northern/eastern NC. Only 13 counties were split, 6 of which were done to draw a VRA district, and I tried to avoid splitting towns where possible.
So I finally registered on SSP and this map is my first posting of North Carolina. It's intended to result in 9 safe GOP districts, all of which are 57% McCain or above, and 4 safe majority-minority Dem districts, two of which are plurality VAP black.
I just wish I could see ten different ways of dealing with the Democrats in the Triad, rather than ten different variations that all deal with them the same way: using NC-12.
roguemapper
Two of the mostrecent NC redistricting diaries have featured roguemapper's cri de couer against I-85-based NC-12s in their comments. Here, I'm only delivering two different ways of dealing with the Triad Dems instead of ten. I hope the comment section will make up for the missing eight.
The argument against an I-85-based NC-12 is threefold: (1) it was upheld in the courts as a partisan-based and not minority-based gerrymander; (2) creating a minority-majority NC-12 barely requires leaving Charlotte, let alone Mecklenburg County; and (3) state Republicans have said they don't want one. I'm currently too lazy to source any of those statements and I'm not interested in arguing them. My purpose is to discuss North Carolina maps that treat that argument as true. Think about it like a move trailer, if it helps:
(booming movie announcer voice) In a world where North Carolina Republicans are committed to a compact, Charlotte-based, minority-majority NC-12... (/booming movie announcer voice)
I'm presenting two maps here. One is an unaggressive and therefore unlikely map that cuts out Kissell but gives the Democrats a new district in the Triad. (It's also got retrogression issues.) I'm posting it because I think it's an interesting baseline for what a minimally gerrymandered map could look like. There's a grand total of ten counties statewide that are split between two or more districts. The other is an extremely aggressive map which creates 10 McCain districts.
The lack of political data is a bit of a drawback in coming up with these North Carolina maps, but I've drawn North Carolina a few times now. In my experience, it's hard to draw a pretty map, and in fact, I think it keeps getting grosser and grosser the more I try.
The idea here was to draw a rather unfriendly 4-9 gerrymander for the Republicans. I think it came out largely successfully, though at least two of those GOP districts (and perhaps one Democratic district) may be prone to a bit of wobble. I'd call it a 4-8-1 overall.
NC-01 (blue)
Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who represents this VRA district, has little to complain about. It's not pretty, but it is 44.4% white, 46.7% black, and no Republicans will be interested in seriously challenging Butterfield out here. Safe Democratic.
NC-02 (green)
Hey, it's an open seat. Well, maybe. This district gobbles up a lot of ruby-red central North Carolina, much of which is currently held by Republican Rep. Howard Coble in modern-day NC-06, one of the most Republican districts in the country. I'm not exactly sure where Coble resides in Greensboro, but most of Greensboro is in another district, so I think this is open. Rep. Renee Ellmers, the freshman Republican who claims this district today, is certainly drawn out. No matter who runs here, the Republican will win unless he or she is caught with a live boy or a dead girl, as the saying goes. Safe Republican.
NC-03 (purple)
Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones, Jr., gets more respect here than most Republican congressmen. He's an ally of Rep. Ron Paul, the iconoclastic Texas Republican who kick-started the nascent libertarian uprising within the Republican Party back in 2007 and 2008 when he ran for president, then flatly refused to endorse the party's nominee, Sen. John McCain, in favor of holding a rival event to the Republican National Convention across town. The quirky Jones should be happy with this district, which looks rather similar to his current turf. He benefits heavily from water continuity here, of course. Safe Republican.
NC-04 (red)
Yes. Here is where things get a bit twisted. Democratic Rep. David Price gets thrown into the blender together with current NC-13 Rep. Brad Miller, another Democrat, in this urban vote sink. A primary fight between Price and Miller, both of whom claim a very Democratic voting record and both of whom are members of the extremely endangered club of white Democratic congressmen from the South, could be the source of some yucky schadenfreude for delighted Republican spectators. Whoever is the Democratic nominee will hold this seat, guaranteed. Safe Democratic.
NC-05 (yellow)
This is where Coble goes out of his NC-06. It's a combination of the northern parts of that district and the current NC-05. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, otherwise known as the Mean Granny, has been redistricted elsewhere, paying the price of living at the absolute extremity of her district. If the district absorbed swingy Winston-Salem, it might be more competitive, but in this configuration, Republicans won't sweat it. Safe Republican.
NC-06 (teal)
Mean Granny actually ends up here, in the district that soaks up Winston-Salem. She has little reason to complain, though, as outside of some parts of the city, the district is eye-blisteringly red. Foxx is such a piece of work that it'd be nice to think a strong Democrat could take her out, but in this configuration, she or any other Republican who runs is basically secure starts out with a solid edge. Safe Likely Republican.
NC-07 (grey)
Somehow, Ellmers lands in this district, while current Democratic Rep. Mike McIntyre goes elsewhere. With all the grace of a drunken giraffe, this district lurches from Ellmers's home of Dunn down to the South Carolina border, scooping up lots of ancestrally Democratic territory. McIntyre likely would have gotten the boot last year were he not matched up against accused murderer and former Goldman Sachs stooge Ilario Pantano, as demographic trends in this area have not smiled on the Democratic Party. I'd rate Ellmers the favorite, but she's not exactly Albert Einstein herself, and a good Democratic recruit could give the party a chance at keeping this seat blue post-McIntyre. Lean Likely Republican.
NC-08 (slate blue)
McIntyre, of course, wound up here, in the district now represented in Congress by his fellow Blue Dog Democrat, Rep. Larry Kissell. There's been some talk of McIntyre running against near-toxic Gov. Perdue for the Democratic nomination in next year's gubernatorial election, and if he gets deathmatched against his buddy Kissell (as appears likely), the odds probably go up. This district is probably going to stay in the Democratic column thanks to Fayetteville and the potent incumbency of Kissell, but the PVI is going to be pretty close to EVEN and Republicans will probably still want to take a crack at flipping it. Likely Democratic.
NC-09 (cyan)
Rep. Sue Myrick, the longtime Republican congresswoman here, has kept a low profile on the national stage, but she's well-connected and well-loved in suburban Charlotte. Her district has not changed too much at all, and she's a lock for reelection if she runs. Safe Likely Republican.
NC-10 (magenta)
This district is the unlucky one charged with cracking the Democratic stronghold of Asheville, credited by some with keeping Rep. Heath Shuler, the Blue Dog Democrat representing NC-11, in Congress last year. Republican Rep. Patrick McHenry should be able to handle it, seeing as that most of the rest of his district remains the same (though it no longer stretches to the Tennessee border) and the modern-day incarnation is a dramatic R+17. Safe Republican.
NC-11 (chartreuse)
The man with the biggest target on his back in North Carolina redistricting this year, Shuler has been an irritant to the North Carolina Republican Party (as well as the national Democratic Party, but that's another story) due to his apparent inability to lose despite occupying an intensely Republican district. But with about two-thirds of Asheville locked away in NC-10, this could be the end for Shuler. The thing is, I wouldn't count the man out. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
NC-12 (cornflower blue)
I haven't exactly made my loathing of Democratic Rep. Mel Watt, the congressman for Bank of America NC-12, a secret on this site. But he's got a VRA district, albeit perhaps the most atrocious one in the country, and he's not going anywhere. Republicans said they'd like to kill this grotesque district, which snakes from Charlotte up to Greensboro, but they also don't want to get nerfed with a retrogression suit, because a court-drawn map of North Carolina would look a hell of a lot different than a Republican gerrymander. This district is 31.4% white, 47.6% black, and 14.2% Latino, which is about as strong a minority-majority district as can be drawn here. Safe Democratic.
NC-13 (salmon)
Despite its color, this district is not intended for every SSPer's favorite authentic self-utilizing power along the lines of excellence, last seen launching a committee to explore just how many points he would lose by to independent Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont. With two pairs of Democratic congressmen deathmatched, this district must be North Carolina's second open seat, and it's a doozy. It's basically an incomplete ring around the Research Triangle, joining together a bunch of white-collar suburbs and exurbs. It doesn't exactly scream "recipe for Democratic strength", but it's an open seat, so it could be surprising. I'd bet strongly on a competent Republican candidate, though. Likely Republican Tossup.
UPDATE: roguemapper kindly calculated some political data (based on the 2008 election results) for the above map. This inspired me to get slightly more diabolical. If Republicans wanted to get very, very aggressive (and maybe a little bit spiteful), they could try a map like this:
I'd call this a 4-9, but I haven't crunched the numbers yet. One of those Republican districts will belong to Rep. Heath "Captain Jack Harkness" Shuler, cursed with apparent political invulnerability, but there's only so much you can do in redistricting.
NC-01 (blue)
No change from previous map. Safe Democratic.
NC-02 (green)
This district takes up a lot of swingy territory (helping to push a few marginal Republican seats deeper into the red) and tries to smother it with rural territory. It's still an open seat, I believe. Democrats' biggest foe here is its lack of geographic compactness; I don't see a Durham-area Democrat running strongly in northern Cumberland County, for example, which would find a Blue Dog more palatable than Democrats from the Research Triangle would. Likely Republican.
NC-03 (purple)
No change here. Safe Republican.
NC-04 (red)
No change here. Safe Democratic.
NC-05 (yellow)
Scooping up more of Greensboro in exchange for some rural counties on the Virginia border will push the PVI of this district a point or two more Democratic, but it should remain a solid Republican district, especially with veteran Coble entrenched in the Greensboro area. Safe Republican.
NC-06 (teal)
No change here. Likely Republican.
NC-07 (grey)
No change here. Likely Republican.
NC-08 (slate blue)
One of the cruelest districts I've ever drawn, this minority-majority district basically screws both Kissell and McIntyre (who are both drawn into it) in the primary. That's probably no benefit to Republicans, as Kissell and McIntyre are among the least loyal members of the Democratic caucus, but it fulfills the vendettas of the North Carolina Republican Party. Plus, if a black Democrat from Greensboro sneaks through in a primary, the consternation of ancestral Democrats happy enough to vote for Kissell and willing to begrudgingly pull the lever for President Obama in 2008 could give a moderate "good ol' boy" Republican (including Kissell, if he switched parties) an opening. 45% white, 34.1% black, 8.2% Latino, 8.1% American Indian. Likely Democratic.
NC-09 (cyan)
Myrick gets a safer seat, with a lot of blueing Charlotte gobbled up by Watt and a lot of reddish territory incorporated into this district. Safe Republican.
NC-10 (magenta)
No change here. Safe Republican.
NC-11 (chartreuse)
No change here. Note that as before, the rating is only because Shuler is Shuler; in an unlikely open-seat scenario, it's almost certain to flip. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
NC-12 (orange)
Yes, I changed the color. And the shape. Watt's ugly snake-shaped district has been made more compact, and in turn, it has become much whiter. It remains minority-majority, but by a smaller margin, and it is white-plurality. 44.4% white, 35.6% black, 13.8% Latino. Safe Democratic.
NC-13 (salmon)
This district loses suburban Durham and Orange counties in exchange for exurban Chatham and Lee counties. This should be the district I meant to draw last time. Still an open seat. Likely Republican.
As with Texas, it's possible that I'm using circa-2008 estimates rather than real 2010 Census figures, but given the accuracy of past approximations I doubt the district lines would look terribly different if I drew them using real Census data. I did this so election stats could be included.
Basically, the Republicans can draw up to a 9-4 map in North Carolina, should everything go right and as long as they don't mind drawing lines even uglier than the Democrats drew ten years ago.
Of the states rolled out in this week's Census 2010 releases, North Carolina is by far the most interesting one. North Carolina narrowly missed out on a 14th seat, so it's staying at 13; its target is 733,499, up from about 619K in 2000. Unsurprisingly, the big gains come in the Charlotte and Raleigh metropolitan areas, with NC-09 in Charlotte's suburbs and NC-04 in Durham and Chapel Hill both well past the 800K mark. (The 9th is represented by GOPer Sue Myrick, although the state's district that shifted the sharpest to the left from Kerry to Obama, while the 4th belongs to Dem David Price and is the bluest white-majority district in the state.) NC-01 on the coastal plain, one of the nation's few truly rural African-American-majority seats, gained the least, followed by the three mostly-rural Appalachian-flavored seats (NC-05, NC-10, and NC-11).
How this shakes out for redistricting is complicated, because Republicans control the process for the first time ever and will want to undo a pretty Dem-friendly map from 2000... but without getting too greedy. What may be their first task, shoring up newly-elected Renee Elmers in what's currently a swing district, may be made easier by the fact the mostly-suburban/exurban 2nd will probably need to give a lot of its African-American population in Raleigh proper to the next-door 1st in order to preserve the dwindling 1st's black-majority VRA status. But since the 2nd didn't grow that fast, it'll then need to look elsewhere to grab some enough white votes to replace them... and since the GOP probably won't want those to be liberal transplants in the Research Triangle area, they may need to reach south into the 3rd or 7th instead.
I could see that in turn pushing Dem Mike McIntyre's 7th further west into Fayetteville and south central rural counties, keeping his district swingy, while also pushing Larry Kissell's 8th further west too, probably giving him a heaping helping of dark-red Charlotte suburbs and making him the likeliest Dem to get targeted for extinction. But the GOP has many, many ways to play this (see the Aaron Blake article linked above), and this isn't the only scenario.
District
Population
Deviation
NC-01
635,936
(97,563)
NC-02
741,576
8,077
NC-03
735,979
2,480
NC-04
826,878
93,379
NC-05
693,414
(40,085)
NC-06
714,412
(19,087)
NC-07
742,938
9,439
NC-08
709,449
(24,050)
NC-09
852,377
118,878
NC-10
689,468
(44,031)
NC-11
703,606
(29,893)
NC-12
736,346
2,847
NC-13
753,104
19,605
Total:
9,535,483
The other two multi-district states are much more clear cut and present similar profiles: in both Nebraska and Kansas, the big empty western districts need to expand greatly, and the urban/suburban districts need to shed population. The GOP controls the processes in both states; the only real intrigue might be whether they try to get fancy and crack the only-slightly-red Omaha-area NE-02 and Kansas City-area KS-03 to make them safer Republican seats. The target in Nebraska is 608,780, up from 570K in 2000. (Notice how low that is... Nebraska seems right at the top of the list for a lost seat in 2020.) In Kansas, the target is 713,280, up from 672K in 2000.
This diary presents potential redistricting maps for Michigan, North Carolina, and Illinois. It also carries the ulterior motive of the following bleg:
I've started working on two related projects for Michigan for Dave's App. I'm collating partisan data and renaming the voting districts by municipality name and precinct number. (Currently, Michigan's voting districts are named using a 14 digit code.) I could use the following three forms of help:
1. I need a precinct map for the city of Detroit. This is looking ahead a bit, because Detroit is the final portion of the state I intend to work on, but it would really help. My Google-fu has failed me thus far.
2. In order to enable collaboration (see third form below), I need to figure out how to get the lines in my copy of vt26_d00.csv sorted by county and voting district number. The vt26_d00_data.csv file is already sorted like this, but its counterpart is somewhat helter-skelter. The solution that occured to me was to try sorting it using OpenOffice Calc (my only spreadsheet program), but that immediately lost leading zeroes, which breaks the CSV file. Any ideas out there?
3. Actual collaboration in collating and renaming. I'm currently going through the counties alphabetically. After two-ish weeks of sporadic effort, I just finished the H's with Huron County. (On to Lansing's Ingham County next!) That's about 19% of the state population. Doing Flint's Genessee County took most of the day yesterday, and I'm fairly frightened of Kent/Macomb/Oakland/Washtenaw/Wayne. Even if you're just interested in helping with some of the smaller, easier counties, I'd be grateful. If you're willing and interested, send me an email at my user name at gmail.com so that I can send you information about the conventions I've been using. Also, post a comment letting me know you emailed me -- it's a secondary email that I don't otherwise check.
After the jump, you'll see the following forms of actual content to assuage my conscience from this bleg:
Michigan: what my partisan map progress looks like so far and a potential Republican gerrymander (an abgin-esque atrocity by Michigan standards)
North Carolina: a Republican map that packs five Democratic incumbents into two districts
Illinois: an oxymoronic "good government" map of Illinois -- I'm posting it mostly to show that two majority Hispanic districts in Chicago are easily created and to show off an particular idea for a reconfigured 17th district.
I applied the Wyoming Rule, stating that each congressional district in the country should have roughly the same population as the smallest state's at-large district, to North Carolina. Redistricting is gruesome in North Carolina, and with 17 districts, it's even nastier. I came up with four safe Democratic districts (all of them VRA districts, either with black majorities or minority-majority coalitions), eight probable Republican districts, and five swing districts, ensuring electoral politics in the Tarheel State with this map would be pretty exciting.
Marvel at the atrocity I have committed. For anyone who is curious, going off 2008 population estimates, each district contains roughly between 472,500 and 474,500 people.
This is one district I did manage to make more compact. It remains black-majority and acts as a Democratic vote sink in swingy eastern North Carolina. Rep. G.K. Butterfield, the Democrat who currently holds this seat, would have no new obstacles here.
NC-02 (swing)
78% white, 12% black
51% Obama, 48% McCain
This is where things start getting ugly. After surveying the map I drew for the Raleigh-Durham area, I felt like I needed to take a shower. Rep.-elect Renee Ellmers, a Tea Party Republican loathed by the GOP establishment for some reason, has been drawn out, as she currently resides in Dunn in Harnett County, which isn't even a part of this district. Meanwhile, I believe Democratic Rep. Brad Miller of NC-13, who resides in Raleigh, has been drawn into the district. Realistically, Ellmers has little chance of holding the current NC-02 in 2012, and Republicans would be better off running a more competent candidate in this district anyway.
This district hasn't changed much, absorbing some of the more conservative parts of NC-01 and ceding a bit of ground where the African American population has risen at a disproportionate rate. The only major change is that it has been extended along the Atlantic coast, absorbing some of the southern suburbs of Wilmington. Republican Rep. Walter B. Jones of Farmville, a town in western Pitt County, would easily win another term here.
If you thought NC-02 was ugly, this is even worse. It effectively combines the African American precincts of Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Garner, Sanford, and Fayetteville, linking them via spindly threads of rural countryside and wilderness. Rep. David Price, the incumbent Democrat here, has been drawn out of this district. Price lives in Chapel Hill, home to the University of North Carolina. Chapel Hill, for what it's worth, is just too white to include in this district without the risk of upsetting its VRA status depending on demographic rates. Democrats should romp in this district regardless.
Northern North Carolina is mostly white and mostly Republican, but the inclusion of Vance County and parts of Nash County, as well as a cut of ultra-liberal Chapel Hill, in this district make it a bit less absurdly partisan than the current iteration. Republican Rep. Virginia Foxx, who lives in Avery County, would have to move in order to run for reelection here, but I'm inclined to think somebody a bit younger and less emblematic of conservative obstinacy would make a better candidate for the GOP here anyway. A Democrat could certainly win this seat in a good year, and indeed, it is possible Price has been drawn into this district (I'm not exactly sure where he claims his address). But the quandary of having part of a liberal college town in an otherwise Republican district is that students might not get out the vote for a Blue Dog, and socially conservative ancestral Democrats might not vote for a progressive.
This district effectively drowns what is left of liberal Chapel Hill in the bathtub of rural conservatism. In my first drawing, this district had not changed a lot from the current version represented by Rep. Howard Coble, a long-serving Republican, but the new version crawls evilly into Orange County to keep Chapel Hill out of a swingier district. If Coble wants another term, he should have no problem getting one in this district, even if he has to run against Price, who is probably drawn in here. As with NC-05, though, Democrats will have a wicked balancing act to perform, as well as a lot of electoral ground to make up, if they want to flip this seat.
This redrawing would represent a fait accompli for the Republicans, drawing out Rep. Mike McIntyre, the Lumberton-based Democratic incumbent. It's another district with a face only a mother could love, but the loss of Wilmington's majority-black northern precincts and the excision of outlying Democratic-friendly areas like Robeson County take it from being a swing district to being a fairly solid Republican district, especially with McIntyre out of the picture. It trades a few rural precincts with NC-03 with no real effect otherwise, simply a matter of working out the numbers.
If you were curious as to where McIntyre went, he was drawn into this district currently held by Rep. Larry Kissell, a fellow Democrat. This new drawing sucks in pieces of Wilmington, Fayetteville, and Aberdeen in exchange for Cabarrus and Stanly counties. It is narrowly a minority-majority coalition district, with a not-insignificant Native American population, and it should be solid for Democrats regardless of whether Kissell, McIntyre, or someone else is the party's 2012 nominee.
Despite sacrificing its southern and western portions in favor of extending further north into Cabarrus County, this district serves the same function as it did before: dividing Charlotte along racial lines. Republican Rep. Sue Myrick, who I believe would still reside in this redrawn district, isn't going to have any trouble getting reelected here. In the event Myrick has been drawn out, any other Republican might have a bit tougher haul but would probably still be favored.
Okay kid, here's where things get racially homogeneous. This redrawn district would be overwhelmingly Republican if it didn't stick a long spur into liberal Asheville, intentionally diluting that population center's influence. Instead it's just very Republican, and it's hard to see a Democrat picking it up. Rep. Patrick McHenry of Cherryville, a Republican, has been drawn out of this district with its move north from Gaston County.
This is that pesky district where Shuler, a Blue Dog, seems to be hanging on just fine despite determined attempts to dislodge him. This redrawing is effectively just the most conservative parts of western North Carolina, with its sole purpose being to get rid of Shuler. Republicans would benefit from a shrunk-down district excising Democratic-friendly Asheville, and indeed, Shuler winning a district now-President Barack Obama lost by 19 points in 2008 seems like a stretch even for him.
This is another slimmed-down version of an existing monstrosity. Democratic Rep. Melvin Watt's district is famous for being one of the most egregious examples of gerrymandering in the county. Fortunately, this Wyoming Rule map puts it to shame, with multiple examples of even grosser gerrymandered districts. The smaller version of this district omits the spur into Winston-Salem and includes only southern and eastern Greensboro. Despite my personal distaste for Watt, he would have no excuse not to win reelection here.
NC-13 (swing)
79% white, 15% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
This district simply ended up in a completely different place than it currently occupies. The current NC-13 includes most of Wake County and a great deal of northern North Carolina, using Raleigh's Democratic tilt to offset the conservative tendencies of Rockingham, Caswell, Person, and Granville counties in what amounts to a big fat Democratic gerrymander. Because there is literally no overlap between the current and redrawn versions of this district, Miller has been drawn out and placed in NC-02, as previously mentioned. The new NC-13 would cover a swath of the central part of the state, including the cities of Kannapolis and Concord in Cabarrus County, stretching down to the South Carolina border west of Charlotte (there is actually an outside chance that Myrick, the NC-09 incumbent, may find herself living here). Because of the inclusion of Cherryville, Gaston County, the long-serving Republican McHenry has certainly been drawn into this district. It's a swing district, and a savvy Blue Dog Democrat could win it, but I think it tilts Republican, especially if McHenry or Myrick run.
This new district in North Carolina under the Wyoming Rule is mostly left over from Shuler's gutted NC-11 and McHenry's dismembered NC-10, with Foxx drawn in along with parts of the current incarnation of NC-05. It's not as strongly Republican as it might have been, but most of liberal Asheville is here putting a weight on the scale due to its size. Considering that Shuler might rather move here from NC-11 to run, I would love to see him battle it out with Foxx. The demographics here ultimately would work in Foxx's favor whether she ran against Shuler or another Democrat.
NC-15 (swing)
72% white, 18% black
48% Obama, 51% McCain
Yes, you're seeing it right: this district includes the east and west sides, but not the middle third, of Harnett County. For all its gerrymandered-to-hell appearance, this is a swing district, carved up in a hideous way partly to permit the existence of the two VRA districts it borders, partly to keep it competitive enough to make surrounding districts more solidly partisan. Ellmers has been drawn into this district, although I'm not sure it's conservative enough for her to win. Getting around in this district looks like it would be hell, and the cultural incongruity between Durham and Dunn might pose an issue in an election year.
NC-16 (swing)
74% white, 18% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
Amazing how a district of leftovers can end up being perhaps the most compact one on the entire map. This all-new district covers most of Winston-Salem, along with rural Yadkin County and large swaths of Stokes, Surry, and Wilkes counties. I don't believe any member of the House of Representatives lives within these district boundaries, but either a conservative Democrat or a cautious Republican could win here. It's a swing district, but it tilts Republican.
NC-17 (swing)
78% white, 16% black
47% Obama, 52% McCain
The last new district is materially similar to the previous one in some ways. Demographically, it comes out looking much the same. It includes most of Guilford and Rockingham counties, serving to sponge up Democratic-friendly areas that could change NC-05 or NC-06 from being Republican districts to being swing districts, as this Republican-tilting district is. I don't think a current House member lives here, meaning we would probably see a new face in Congress representing it in 2013. I think that face is likely to be Republican.
Comments, either on the map or on the Wyoming Rule?
9:20pm: 100% is now reporting in SC-03. Duncan's sporting a 3% or 2,100 vote lead over Cash, but still no call from the AP after a short delay, the AP has called it for Duncan.
9:00pm: Given that the Ark of the Covenant is in Arizona, Tim D'Annunzio can try his next congressional run there. AP calls NC-08 for Johnson.
8:57pm: Duncan continues to hold his lead over Cash in SC-03; this territory went for Cash narrowly by 0.4% in the first round. This is a swing of 3.7% to Duncan, who needs a swing of 2.3% to win. In NC-08, Johnson continues to whomp D'Annunzio 62-38.
8:47pm: AP calls SC-01 for Tim Scott. He will likely become the first black Republican in Congress since JC Watts left office in 2003.
8:40pm: It's over for Rep. Bob Inglis - the AP calls it. Trey Gowdy has beaten him soundly. Inglis is the third House incumbent and fifth member of Congress to lose a primary/convention so far this cycle.
8:37pm: Man, maybe SSP HQ needs to take a ganja break this time! The two biggest races have been called (NC-Sen and SC-Gov), and NC-08, SC-01, and SC-04 all look like blowouts. And SC-03 isn't exactly a barnburner. We may not have much real action until Utah starts coming in later tonight.
8:33pm: Really bad news for fans of Raiders of the Lost Ark: Tim D'Annunzio is getting smashed by Harold Johnson, 68-32, with about 18% reporting. This represents an almost 15% swing to Johnson, which means Timmy D might wind up with a smaller share than in the first round. Pretty pathetic, but if anyone could pull this off, he could.
8:31pm: The one real barnburner tonight might be SC-03, the seat being vacated by gubernatorial loser Gresh Barrett. Duncan leads Cash 52-48 with over half the vote in. This represents a nice swing toward Duncan from round one, though, so it might not wind up being this close in the end.
8:30pm: Yeah, it's officially official - We Are Marshall. She'll take on Richard Burr this fall.
8:29pm: Buncha people on Twitter are saying the AP has called NC-Sen for Elaine Marshall. Really gotta wonder what the DSCC was thinking here. Time for them to embrace her fully.
8:22pm: AP calls SC-Gov for Nikki Haley. She'll face Dem state Sen. Vincent Sheheen in the fall. Unlike in SC-Sen, we definitely got the candidate we wanted in our primary.
8:19pm: Meanwhile, in SC-01, Tim Scott is cruising with a 73-27 lead with a quarter of the voted reporting. Hard to see him losing this one. I guess Paul Thurmond can go commiserate with Ethan Hastert.
8:17pm: With about 30% of the vote in, Nikki Haley is crushing Gresham Barrett 64-36. Gotta wonder what folks like Andre Bauer and the local Chamber of Commerce were thinking.
8:16pm: Terrible sign for Inglis - he's down 60-40 in his purported "base" of Greenville. He was a dead man walking for the last couple of weeks. Tonight is just the grand finale.
8:11pm: 1% of the vote has trickled in in NC-08, and Harold Johnson leads Tim D'Annunzio 70-30. This represents a 13% swing to Johnson from the first round (based on the two-candidate share of the vote).
8:04pm: True to the Greenville v. Spartanburg divide in SC-04, the one precinct from Greenville in has closed this to 70-30 Gowdy.
8:02pm: Cash has retaken the lead in SC-03 over Duncan narrowly at 50.3-46.7, but this is territory that went for him 26-19 in the first round.
7:59pm: In NC-Sen, Elaine Marshall continues to sport her 64-36 lead over Cal Cunningham. This is territory that went for Marshall 39-30 in the first round. In SC-Gov, Haley's lead is 62-38 over Barrett; this territory went for her 49-23 in the first round.
7:55pm: In SC-01, Scott's lead remains an impressive 70-30 over Thrumond. Further west in SC-03, Duncan now has a 52-48 lead over Cash.
7:49pm: Marshall's lead has ticked up slightly to 64-36 with 6% reporting in NC. Johnson is whomping D'Annunzio 75-25 with two precincts in.
7:47pm: Duncan's now taken the lead in SC-03, a slim 89-vote lead over Cash.
7:42pm: 1% reporting in North Carolina now, Marshall is up on Cunningham 63-37.
7:30pm: We only have five precincts reporting in South Carolina, and Nikki Haley leads Gresham Barrett by 61-39. In SC-01, Tim Scott leads Paul Thurmond by 67-33, and ice cream truck driver businessman Richard Cash leads state Rep. Jeff Duncan by 54-46 with one precinct counted in SC-03. Trey Gowdy is also crushing Bob Inglis by 85-15 in the early vote.
Polls have now closed in South Carolina. (North Carolina will close at 7:30pm ET.) We'll be using this thread to follow the returns.
