This is the first part of two posts analyzing New York's recent Republican primary. It will focus upon the upstate-downstate divide revealed by the primary. The next part can be found here.
The 2010 Republican Gubernatorial Primary
On September 14th 2010 the Republican Party held its primary in New York. In the gubernatorial primary, party favorite Rick Lazio was defeated by the Tea Party Candidate: businessman Carl Paladino. Mr. Paladino won a comprehensive victory, with 62% of the vote to Mr. Lazio's 38%.
In the long run, this primary does not matter much - if at all. By next month the primary will all but be forgotten by even the most politically intense folk. Most Americans probably weren't even aware that there was a primary in the first place.
Yet, whatever its long-term importance, the primary constitutes a valuable tool for exploring New York's electoral geography. Mr. Paladino's victory revealed two interesting facts of New York politics. This post will explore the first one.
It's time for the fourth edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate. This week we've got endorsements from NYLCV and ESPA, and our candidates go on the attack while Republicans fight amongst themselves.
As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag. You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page. If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed. --Mike
It's time for the third edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate. This week we've got a bevy of endorsements from the Women's Campaign Forum, HRC and more.
As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag. You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page. If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed. --Mike
It's time for the second edition in our weekly roundup of news from the Democratic campaigns for the New York State Senate. We've just past the petitioning and July filing deadlines, and this edition is all about the numbers.
As always, if you see that we missed something, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you Tweet about any campaigns, please consider using the #NYSen10 hashtag. You can find all our challengers on Act Blue at the Change Albany Now page. If you'd like to follow these roundups on a daily basis, visit our blog or subscribe to our RSS feed. --Mike
Writing at POLITICO, Maggie Haberman profiles Democratic women challenging incumbent Republicans in the State Senate, and notes that The Year of the Woman Hits New York:
This is the first part of a series of posts analyzing competitive Senate elections in blue states. The first part, which analyzes Illinois can be found here.
Out of the three heavily Democratic states being analyzed, Republicans probably have the least chance of winning New York. A serious Republican challenger to Senator Kristen Gillibrand has yet to emerge. Moreover, Ms. Gillibrand has proven an adept politician willing to campaign hard.
Nevertheless, in a bad national environment with low name recognition, victory for Democrats is not assured. Under the right circumstances (perhaps a Gillibrand scandal), Republicans may be able to pull off a shocker.
Like Illinois, New York can be divided into three sections: upstate, the suburbs downstate, and New York City. A New York Republican must win upstate and the suburbs by substantial margins - and perform extremely well in New York City.
In an effort to keep folks in the loop about important down-ballot races here in New York, I'm going to start posting weekly roundups of all the news related to New York State Senate (#NYSen10 on Twitter) candidates. If you want to follow these daily, visit the New York Senate Dems blog, or subscribe to our RSS feed.
If we missed anything, please include links to more news on New York State Senate campaigns in the comments. If you'd like to donate to any of the Democratic challengers running this year, New York Senate Dems has set up an Act Blue page featuring all the challengers (no incumbents) who are registered on the site: Change Albany Now!--Mike
As we rapidly approach the July 15th filing deadline here in New York, the biggest hurdle I find for our candidates is that not enough of New York's voters and activists know who they are, the dynamics of the race, or how great a chance we have in 2010 to pick up more seats and secure our fragile majority in the State Senate.
Last Thursday, just one day after New York Republicans selected Rick Lazio as their official nominee for Governor, the state's GOP convention produced some mixed results in the U.S. Senate race to challenge Kirsten Gillibrand. Unable to settle upon one candidate, both Bruce Blakeman and David Malpass will compete in a September primary for the GOP nomination. Joe DioGuardi, the third candidate, failed to garner the support necessary to make that primary ballot.
There's only one problem. DioGuardi, no matter what happens on the GOP side, already has a guaranteed slot on the November ballot. Huh?
New York's Conservative Party, the right-wing gang originally designed to create hell for liberal Republican Nelson Rockefellar way back when, has already given DioGuardi its ballot line for the Senate race, provoking all sorts of vote-splitting horrors for Republicans statewide.
After all, just rewind back to that fascinating race up in NY-23, where liberal Republican Dede Scozzafava, once considered the overwhelming front-runner, was bombarded by the Conservative nominee, uber-right-winger Doug Hoffman. Hoffman, a political arsonist at its worst, damaged Scozzafava so horribly among the district's Republicans that she dropped out of the race at the 11-o-clock hour. For Hoffman, however, it was an exercise to nowhere, as Democrat Bill Owens used the obnoxious Hoffman/Scozzafava showdown to his benefit, claiming victory as the one normal, likable candidate in the race.
For New York Republicans, such a scenario on a statewide level would be the nightmare from hell.
My suspicion is, however, DioGuardi, the fmr. Westchester Congressman, doesn't have the money or excitement to make a real dent in this race. He's so dull and washed-up, he makes Rick Lazio look fun, and I think most conservatives will make a valiant effort to rally around either Blakeman, the fmr. Port Authority Commissioner, or Malpass, the fmr. Reagan advisor. Both men are moderate Republicans, but not quite as liberal or RINO-y as Scozzafava, plus many state GOP-ers are salivating at the notion that Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand might be a bit vulnerable when it comes to the general.
I do think this race is in the Likely Dem column, perhaps even Safe Dem, with Gillibrand consolidating the vast majority of Democrats and probably performing quite well among Independents too. Even if she doesn't succeed among the latter, the overwhelming Dem registration should keep her in safe territory. I imagine we're looking at a voter model which mirrors something like...
In this (highly-unlikely) scenario, Gillibrand bleeds conservative Dems and many moderate Independents to the GOP ticket, while DioGuardi implodes, failing to gain any real traction among the far-right who might be weary about Blakeman or Malpass. Even so, Gillibrand still eeks out a win.
Memo to U.S. politicians: 2010 is not evidently not the best year to be a party-switcher.
Yesterday, Suffolk County Executive Steve Levy, the Democrat-turned-Republican, who switched parties in the hopes of taking on Democrat Andrew Cuomo in the upcoming New York Guberntorial race, tanked at the state's GOP convention. Levy's support was so thin, he failed to secure a spot on the party's primary ballot, ensuring fmr. Rep. Rick Lazio will be the official GOP nominee to challenge Cuomo.
Yes, THAT Rick Lazio.
The fmr. Long Island Congressman, who scored fifteen minutes of national fame a decade ago in the 2000 U.S. Senate race against Hillary Rodham Clinton, has returned for another statewide beating. Lazio became the subject of political notoriety for his debate performance against Clinton, in which he abandoned his debate podium and demanded, face-to-face, that the fmr. First Lady sign a pledge, aiming to ban soft money in political campaigns. Meant to strike a chord with Independent voters, who'd been weary of Clinton's political ambitions, the move instead solidified Clinton's support among female voters, who saw Lazio's move as positively cringe-worthy.
A toss-up race quickly became Clinton's to lose, and she did claim a strong, double-digit victory, sending Lazio forever into the dark, murky shadows of failed New York politicos. Or, so we thought.
Lazio's bid against the sitting Attorney General is, to put it mildly, the mother of all long-shots. After all, Cuomo's actually quite popular among even registered Republicans, and conservatives are raving over his policy positions, not too unlike those of Republican New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie's. Plus, one has to consider why Steve Levy gave this race a shot in the first place. Lazio, while respected among the state's conservative circles, is generally looked upon as a washed-up has-been, not to mention a personality who's hardly of the most telegenic or exciting kind. Levy, despite his failings, at least had a sort of hammy, humorous demeanor which may have paid off come the face-to-face debates with Cuomo.
Alas, the GOP has sided with Lazio, and I must say, this race looks like a complete blow-out to me. How I currently see it playing out...
Such a race would even best the stellar showing of Elliot Spitzer in his 2006 bid against John Faso, which was a 69%-29% victory. Now, let's pretend, for a moment, that Lazio actually runs a solid campaign, while Cuomo's is surprisingly underwhelming. (For the record, I highly doubt this will be the case.) Presuming such, I suspect a best-case-scenario for Lazio looks something like...
This margin roughly mirrors that of the 2008 Presidential race. That is, the Republican wins a decent majority of GOP-ers and self-described "conservatives," but "moderates" still flock to the Democrat, and the Dem base is still basically shored-up. No matter what, I can't imagine Cuomo not winning about two-to-one over Lazio, especially given the Democrat's aggressive willingness to work across-the-aisle. Lazio, on the flip side, will probably run a very anti-Democrat campaign, and try to win over the state on a platform of conservativism. Of course, one cannot win statewide in New York by doing this.
