As long as I've been interested in politics, I've never understood how the NYS Senate was controlled by Republicans for so long, especially in a state as Democratic as New York.
So the purpose of my diary was two-fold: to understand the situation as it is now (our tenuous 2-seat majority), and to look at what a potential redistricting would look like that would cement Democratic control (for the next time...I don't feel like formatting too much html.)
I started by analyzing Obama's performance in each Senate district - after Pres-by-CD and the NY political data in Dave's app, this wasn't too difficult. Just follow me over the flip...
Gov. David A. Paterson will name a lieutenant governor in a televised speech he has scheduled for late Wednesday afternoon, according to a person close to the governor.
It remains unclear, however, whom he will pick. ...
Speculation in the capital ran rampant on Wednesday about a possible pick for the post, including the former Chief Judge Judith Kaye and Nassau County Executive Thomas R. Suozzi. Ms. Kaye did not return a call for comment. Mr. Suozzi indicated at an appearance on Wednesday that he would not be appointed, nor had sought the job.
Swing State Project sources also indicate that SSP Publisher DavidNYC is in the hunt. Apparently, Paterson, who represented the West Side for many years in the state Senate, wants to balance his ticket with someone from the East Side. Anyhow, how might Paterson accomplish this trick, given that the state constitution doesn't specify anything about any line of succession for the Lt. Gov. spot?
But whether Mr. Paterson can legally appoint a lieutenant governor has been a matter of some debate. One school of thought, which has been advanced in recent days by Democrats and government watchdog groups, is that a provision of state law allows the governor to fill elected offices for which there is no provision explicitly spelling out how the vacancy should be handled.
But Republicans are sure to sue to block any such move, and even AG Andy Cuomo claimed that this would be an unconstitutional "political ploy." Still, with such an embarrassing circus in Albany, anything that might put pressure on the Senate to bust its insane logjam could be helpful at this point - it's pretty hard to see things getting worse. Stay tuned this afternoon.
Democrats took over control of the New York Senate with the 2008 election after decades of trying, but that flipped back to the GOP today with two defections.
A raucous leadership fight erupted on the floor of the Senate around 3 p.m., with two Democrats, Pedro Espada Jr. of the Bronx and Hiram Monserrate of Queens, joining the 30 Senate Republicans in a motion that would displace Democrats as the party in control.
This makes Dean Skelos the new majority leader by a 32-30 margin, although Espada and Monserrate don't seem to have officially changed parties. This would seem to be a last-ditch effort to stop gay marriage from clearing the New York Senate, but oddly, the main Democratic obstruction on that front, Sen. Ruben Diaz Jr. Sr., didn't join the other two dissidents in today's vote. (H/t Zeitgeist9000.)
As much as this screws up not only the gay marriage push but also the state's budget, this may have one silver lining: unless there's going to be some sort of counter-push, Darrell Aubertine isn't as desperately needed to stay in place, and he can jump into NY-23 with impunity.
One person backing the revolt to put Republicans back in charge was Tom Golisano, the Rochester businessman and founder of Responsible New York, a political action committee that gave thousands of dollars to Senate Democrats last year to help them take control of the Senate, but who has become increasingly critical of the party. Mr. Golisano recently announced that he was moving his legal residence to Florida out of anger about the budget deal crafted in April by Democratic leaders in Albany, which included an increase in taxes on high earners.
Mr. Golisano played a role in negotiating original deal under which Mr. Espada and Mr. Monserrate - along with Mr. Díaz and Senator Carl Kruger of Brooklyn - gave their support to Mr. Smith. Steve Pigeon, his aide de camp, has been a frequent presence in Albany in recent weeks, and said Tuesday that Mr. Golisano felt betrayed by Mr. Smith because the Democratic leader had not delivered the overhaul of Senate rules he had promised upon taking power.
"He feels very strongly that he backed Malcolm Smith, and Smith didn't keep his word, and didn't make the changes he said he would," Mr. Pigeon. "What you will see now is power-sharing, real reform."
LATER UPDATE (David): Senate Dems seem to be saying this is all just a bad dream:
STATEMENT FROM AUSTIN SHAFRAN, PRESS SECRETARY FOR SENATE MAJORITY LEADER MALCOLM A. SMITH
"This was an illegal and unlawful attempt to gain control of the Senate and reverse the will of the people who voted for a Democratic Majority.
Nothing has changed, Senator Malcolm A. Smith remains the duly elected Temporary President and Majority Leader. The real Senate Majority is anxious to get back to governing, and will take immediate steps to get us back to work."
ONE MORE UPDATE (David): In a new article, the NYT says that gay marriage had nothing to do with it:
Concern over a failure to adopt new Senate rules, coupled with anger over a tax increase included in the recently passed state budget deal, was said to have led to the switch.
On Election Night, I stood by while State Senator-elect Joe Addabbo gave his acceptance speech. I turned to a girl I met that night who worked on his campaign and was close to Malcolm Smith, the incoming majority leader.
"Looks like we control the State Senate" I said
"No, not really." she explained, "Only Joe and Brian Foley won."
SD-61 (10/29-11/1, likely voters, 9/11-17 in parens):
Joseph Mesi (D): 42 (40)
Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 47 (38)
(MoE: ±4.9)
UPDATE by Crisitunity: If these predictions hold, this would see the Democrats picking up the New York State Senate by the barest majority, by gaining two seats (right now it's 31-29 for the Republicans, with 2 vacancies which are split between the two parties and likely to remain that way). They would pick up the GOP seats of Caesar Trunzo in SD-03 in Long Island's Suffolk County (who led Brian Foley by a decent margin in the last poll) and Serphin Maltese in SD-15 in Queens (who was tied with Joe Addabbo in the previous poll).
Much of rest of the action is in the Buffalo area: there's at least one other possible pickup, SD-61, a Republican-held open seat where Joe Mesi led Michael Ranzenhofer previously but now trails by 5. Kathy Konst has made up a lot of ground in SD-59, but is still down by 11. The one seat where the Dems are engaged in a difficult defense is SD-58, where Dem incumbent William Stachowski was down by 13 against suspended Buffalo PD detective Dennis Delano, but now leads by 4. As you can see, there's a lot of volatility, not just because we're dealing with small sample sizes, but also the difficulty in general in polling state legislature races. But it looks like, after decades of futility, the Dems are in position to take over the New York state senate.
Siena has released a second batch of polls of contested New York Senate races. The first batch was a few weeks ago, and pointed to a likely Democratic pickup and another tied race, enough to flip control of the Senate to the Democrats (who are currently down 31-29 with 2 vacancies).
Unfortunately, this round of polling shows a fly in the ointment that wasn't apparent before: incumbent Democrat William Stachowski from 55th District in Buffalo's blue-collar suburbs (another long-term presence, in office since 1981) is trailing Dennis Delano, and by a substantial margin. (Delano, a Buffalo police detective, is apparently a local law enforcement celebrity.) If this seat goes down, the possibility of a tied Senate looms large.
Other polls in this race include two GOP-held upstate seats where the Democratic candidates (the highly-touted David Nachbar, and Kathy Konst, who bailed out of the NY-26 primary to run for state senate instead) have uphill climbs, and a seat in Westchester County where the Democratic incumbent looks to hang on easily. Several other closely contested races that are promising for the Dems (Padavan/Gennaro in SD-11 and Barber/Seward in SD-51) remain unpolled, so the quest to flip the New York state senate remains in limbo.
SD-56 Richard Dollinger (D): 38
Joseph Robach (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±4.7%)
SD-61 Joseph Mesi (D): 40
Michael Ranzenhofer (R): 38
(MoE: ±4.6%)
The New York Senate is the last bulwark for the Republicans in New York, and Democrats have steadily chipped away at it. Republicans currently have a 31-29 edge, with 2 vacancies (one of which was the seat held by Joe Bruno, GOP senate leader since time immemorial).
New polling by Siena of six of the most hotly contested Senate seats suggests that the Dems are poised to take over the chamber in 2008. First, assume that the two vacancies are retained by the Dems and GOP respectively (SD-13 is a safe Dem district in Queens; SD-43, Bruno's old seat, is in GOP-leaning Albany suburbs, and not a sure bet to stay red, although it wasn't polled). That would push the vote count to 32-30 in favor of the GOP.
However, these polls see Dem Joseph Mesi picking up SD-61 in the Buffalo suburbs, held by the retiring Republican Mary Lou Rath. Net result? 31-31. Ordinarily, the tie would be broken by the Lieutenant Governor... but New York doesn't have one right now, as the post was left vacant when David Paterson succeeded Eliot Spitzer. So then who takes over? Short answer: no one knows.
But... Joseph Addabbo is tied with incumbent Republican Serphin Maltese in SD-15, a heavily Democratic area in Queens (the same poll also asked presidential preferences in each district, and Obama leads McCain 49-31 in the 15th). Maltese also might suffer from the recent arrest of Democratic Assemblyman (but key Maltese ally, whose Assembly district covers part of the 15th) Anthony Seminerio on federal corruption charges. This could be the tiebreaker.
The remaining polls show the two Democratic freshmen elected in mid-term, Craig Johnson and Darrel Aubertine, cruising to re-election, while threatened GOP incumbents Caesar Trunzo and Joe Robach are holding onto decent-size leads.
Sudden bombshell out of Albany, New York: Joe Bruno, the longtime leader of the Republican delegation in the state senate, won't stand for re-election. According to the New York Daily News:
It's confirmed. A high-ranking Senate staffer said: "He will not run for re-election. It's still open as to whether he will serve out the term until Dec. 31 or leave. early."
For those not following state legislature races, control of the New York State Senate is the big enchilada this year. Each year we've chipped at it, edging closer to control (we're currently down 32-30), and prognosticators have increasingly felt like this was the year it would flip, removing the main obstacle to implementing progressive policy in New York and placing 2010 redistricting control entirely in Democratic hands.
Apparently Bruno saw the handwriting on the wall (i.e. the remainder of his career spent in the minority) and decided this was a fine time to leave (although there's also the small matter of his outside business interests being under FBI investigation). This may be the hole in the dam that bursts wide open; a number of other aging Republicans in Democratic-leaning areas (who are in their 70s or 80s, have been serving in the state senate since the 1970s, and have provided the margin for control) have stuck around largely because Bruno has corralled them, trying to maintain the majority. With him gone, look for a stampede for exits from other dinosaurs facing extinction like Frank Padavan and Caesar Trunzo.
Our candidate in SD-43 (in the Albany suburbs) is Brian Premo, although stronger challengers may emerge with Bruno out of the picture.
When it comes to downballot races, it has been the New York State Senate that has held much of my attention this election year. And from the Albany Project's Phillp Anderson comes a report that Republican Majority Leader Joseph Bruno is making moves that may indicate an intent to retire this year rather than lead a likely minority in a state where the Republican Party will be mostly shut out at the federal and state levels.
I would imagine, the easy speculation as to why Craig is getting my support, time, effort and some money, is that he is a Democrat running for the State Senate, something I just did myself. But that would be selling Craig (and me) a bit short.
First of all, I have met Craig and find him to be engaging, energetic and passionate about his job (serving the people of his county legislative district), and, quite frankly, I think he would make a good State Senator for the people in the 7th District. But, what sold me is the fact that he is passionate about reforming the absolute mess in Albany.
In preparation for the TAP Book Club with Seymour Lachman, I am reading "Three Men In A Room." I'm hoping that everyone does the same and joins us for the discussion at The Albany Project on January 29th, but, by doing so, you'll understand why Craig Johnson is getting my full support.
I would imagine, the easy speculation as to why Craig is getting my support, time, effort and some money, is that he is a Democrat running for the State Senate, something I just did myself. But that would be selling Craig (and me) a bit short.
