It seems whenever I see the DC pundits on TV, I get frustrated. I keep hearing about some massive "Red Tide" coming. I keep hearing about how much "momentum" Republicans have. And I keep hearing about all thismoneySharron Angle is raising from other parts of the country.
So is it time to call it quits and give into "The Red Tide"? Not really. I know something that you may not...
OK, OK, here's what I know you've been waiting for. I teased some of these last month, but now you can see my full Senate and Assembly reports after the flip.
I only listed competitive races below, as the rest probably won't see too much actions. Click here for Nevada Legislative Districts, here for the latest voter registration statistics from the Nevada Secretary of State, here for a list of the candidates in Washoe County, and here for a list of candidates in Clark County.
All too often, I hear the Beltway pundits chatter away over national poll numbers, party fundraising, who's hiring which lobbyists, what the strategists at The White House must REALLY be thinking, and so much more.
But you know what? Here in what may be one of the districts that determines who will control Congress next year, none of that really matters. People here are asking who has solutions to the actual problems that plague us.
4:00am: Props 16 and 17 look like they'll fail tonight, 51.8% No on 16 and 50.7% No on 17. If they follow the trajectory they've been taking over the course of the night, expect those numbers to go up. Harmer's still nursing his 10 point lead over Goehring in CA-11. After nine hours, SSP is signing off!
3:51am: Fortunately for Gary Miller, California's not a runoff state! He's now just under 50%! Both props continue to slip now at over 2/3rd reporting; our punch cards say 51.7% No on 16, 50.6% No on 17.
3:45am: Have we crossed the Rubicon? Prop 16 looking headed towards failure with 51.4% opposed. No's running ahead of yes by 107,000 right now, which in light of what we're estimating to be 600,000 or so votes left isn't trivial to overcome. Prop 17 has tipped the balance and is now projected to fail by 0.2%, but No's 25,000 lead is much more tenuous.
3:30am: No love for Prop 15 (public financing of SoS campaigns); the AP's finally called 'No' with 57%.
3:25am: Looking at Props 16 and 17 now with 57% reporting, both Props' support continue to weaken. Prop 16 is now on track for 51.2% opposed, and Prop 17 passing by 0.5%. There are a few Prop 16 strongholds left, notably, San Bernardino, San Diego, Riverside and Orange Counties, but there are plenty of smaller NorCal counties there to offset - half of Santa Clara, Yolo, and Alameda; three-fourths of Santa Cruz, and a third of Sonoma. Even Placer's contributing to the No-on-16 effort, where it's failing 53-47 right now.
3:10am: It's now past midnight Pacific Time, and the big action is left in Props 16 and 17. (Prop 15 hasn't been called yet, but looks well on target for failure). Prop 16's fate has changed quite a bit since an hour and a half ago, now looking on track for failure with 50.9% against. What's changed? More anti-Prop 16 areas in Southern California are reporting: LA County, which had been supporting Prop 16 with 56%, is now down to 52% in support; Santa Barbara which was in support is now against. Prop 17 is doing better, looking on track for passage with about 50.4%.
3:00am: Is Busby the new Sodrel? Busby declared the winner in CA-50, setting up Busby v. Bilbray round 3.
2:56am: In an odd show of moderation by the California GOP, appointed incumbent Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado gets the nod for re-election over conservative challenger State Senator Sam Aanestad.
2:53am: CA-36 (D): Jane Harman has fended off Marcy Winograd for the second time with about 61% of the vote.
2:47am: Gary Miller's 53% is good enough for the AP to declare him the winner. It's better than Bob "28%" Inglis, but still weak.
2:45am: CA-36 (D) is looking similar to 2006 at 62-38 for Harman. Laura Richardson was also declared the winner next door in CA-37 with a surprisingly weak 65%.
2:41am: CA-19 (R) called for Denham. Marsden still trailing Goodwin 53-47 on the (D) side.
2:39am: Few more precincts rolled through in CA-42, Gary Miller is now to 53%, in one of tonight's worst incumbent showings.
2:37am: Kamala Harris gets the Dem nod for Attorney General; matchup will be SF DA Harris vs. LA DA Cooley.
2:32am: Mary Mary quite contrary, how does your garden grow? More quickly now, it seems, enough that the AP has called the Dem Lt. Gov nod for Gavin Newsom and the GOP Att. Gen nod for Steve Cooley.
2:30am: The statewide races aren't the only thing seemingly standing still. CA-11 is still 35-28 for Harmer, while CA-19 has moved a bit to 37-30 Denham over Patterson, with the odious Dick Pombo back at 20. Gary Miller continues to underwhelm in CA-42 at 54%. Also in a bit of a surprise, California Democratic Party-endorsed candidate Les Marsden is down 47-53 to Some Dude Loraine Goodwin. The only major movement is on the Prop 16 side, which is now slated to fail narrowly with 50.12% against.
2:10am: The sky is still blue, as well, it seems! 36% in now, same holding pattern: 57-31 Newsom for LG (D), 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-17 Harris for AG (D), and 49-32 Cooley for AG (R). Here at SSP Labs, we are now taking bets over whether Kamala Harris will clear the one-third mark. (Signs pointing to no and a finish around 32%). Prop 16 is now looking at a 50.4% passage.
1:58am: Things are looking a little comfier for David Harmer in CA-11, much to the NRCC's pleasure, I'm sure. He's at 36, with Brad Goehring at 27. Amador's at 19 and Emken at 18.
1:55am: Watching California's been like watching grass grow, but bring on the Miracle Gro! A cool 1,000 precincts just rolled in, bringing us to 29% reporting. But, alas, grass is still green, 58-30 Newsom for LG (D); 47-28 Maldonado for LG (R); 33-18 Harris for AG (D); and 50-31 Cooley for AG (R). Prop 16 still on track to pass with 51.8%.
1:47am: Prop 16's back down narrowly in California by less than 2,000 votes. For what was assumed to be a Democrat-Republican issue, this is seriously breaking the usual patterns: the "new Orange County" of Placer County and conservative Kern County (Bakersfield) are voting this down, while normally Democratic SoCal areas like LA and Imperial County are voting yes. Some good old back-of-the-envelope math says passage is likely with 51.8%.
1:42am: Here's an odd tidbit I missed: the SC-03 Republican runoff is going to be between state Rep. Jeff Duncan (as expected) and businessman Richard Cash (totally unexpected, with state Rep. Rex Rice finishing 3rd), but Cash actually wound up pulling ahead at the end. It was 25 Cash, 23 Duncan, 19 Rice, and 19 for John Grimaud (who'd planned to challenge Joe Wilson in the 2nd, but decided at the last minute that the 3rd would be better).
1:40am: Two special elections in CA today. One for Assembly District 43 (Glendale, Burbank) to replace now-LA City Councilman Paul Krekorian (D), where after 6 precincts, the Dem is up 54-46. AD-43 went for Obama 70-28. The other's in Senate District 37 to replace now-Riverside Co. Supervisor John Benoit (R). Dems didn't expect to have a shot, but the Dem nominee's losing 57-32 in an SD that gave Obama 50.3%. The more exciting special election - to replace now Lt. Gov Abel Maldonado is in two weeks.
1:30am: Still a holding pattern in the four big CA statewide races left, though we're at 22% reporting now. Newsom still up on Hahn 57-30 for Dem Lt. Gov; Maldonado up 47-28 though Aanestad's doing well in Orange County. Dem AG remains 33-18-15-12, Harris-Kelly-Torrico-Lieu, and Rep AG is also still at 50-31-19 Cooley/Eastman/Harman. Prop 16 is leading narrowly now and could be extrapolated to it passing 52-48.
1:20am: Things are still a little slow in CA-42; with 6% reporting, Gary Miller's at 55%, which I think is the 2nd most underwhelming House incumbent performance tonight (ahead of only Bob Inglis). Phil Liberatore is at 32.
1:10am: The last outstanding race in Arkansas looks like it's been put to bed. In the R primary runoff in AR-03, the AP has called it for Steve Womack, 52-48, over Cecile Bledsoe. Another endorsement fail for Sarah Palin. At least Terry Branstad's keeping her percentage up.
1:00am: In CA-47, it looks the Vietnamese vote splitting problem never materialized. Van Tran leads the GOP primary at 52, with Kathy Smith at 29 and Tan Nguyen at 19.
12:57am: The Cal SoS seems to be further along than the AP (up to 15% in), and they have a whole different take on CA-11. They have Harmer at 34, not that far ahead of Goehring at 30, with Amador at 18 and Emken at 17.
12:55am: Geez, add even another one to the list. In CA-41, Jerry Lewis (rounding out the trio of Inland Empire GOPers under ethical clouds for weird real estate deals) leads his opposition 66-34.
12:52am: In CA-44, Ken Calvert also looks poised to join the very large club of incumbents not breaking 70% in their primaries. He leads his opposition 69-31. Up in CA-11, establishment pick David Harmer has gained more ground; he's at 48, with 21 for Emken, 20 for Amador, and 10 for Goehring. And in CA-19, establishment guy Jeff Denham also leads 41, with Patterson at 25 and Pombo at 20, with about 40% reporting.
12:46am: The four Lt. Gov and Attorney General races are still uncalled. For LG (D), Newsom's up 57-31 on Hahn winning plenty of SoCal locales like San Diego. In the Republican primary, Maldonado's keeping his edge over Sam Aanestad, who's even losing stalwart conservative areas like Placer County. For Atty Gen (D), Kamala Harris is keeping a narrow 32-18 lead over Chris Kelly; Torrico in 3rd at 15 and Lieu in 4th at 12. Not enough cat fud in GOP primary; moderate Steve Cooley still up 50-31 on Eastman with Tom Harman back at 19.
12:44am: Former Assembly Speaker Karen Bass wins her primary in CA-33 with 85%, will likely be the next congresswoman from this D+35 district.
12:36am: Sue Lowden can now set up that bartering post she's always wanted; NV-Sen called for Angle by the AP.
12:33am: No, rly. AP calls the Republican SoS primary for Damon Dunn. Orly Taitz can go back to filing groundless lawsuits as a private citizen. In between pulling teeth.
12:32am: AP has called Proposition 14 (top two primary system) as a 'yes.' Take that, third parties!
12:29am: Here's one GOP moderate who survived a teabagger challenge with little trouble. Mary Bono Mack leads Clayton Thibodeau 74-26 with more than half in, in CA-45. In CA-42, only about 1% is in, but it points to Gary Miller -- who we'd thought was most vulnerable to his teabagging opponent, seeing as how he (Liberatore) actually had some money -- surviving, albeit unimpressively. Miller leads 58-28.
12:28am: In CA-50, it looks like it'll be Francine Busby 3.0. With more than 10% in, she's leading Tracy Emblem 64-36.
12:25am: Switching back to the East coast, there's one New Jersey race still uncalled. In the GOP primary in NJ-06, 99.6% are in, and Little leads Gooch (the moneybags lady who was On the Radar) by about 100 votes.
12:22am: Joe Heck easily dispensed with the teabag remnants he faced in the GOP primary in NV-03, winning with 70%. There is, however, a barnburner between two guys I don't know in the Dem primary in NV-02, for the booby prize of going up against Dean Heller: K. McKenna and N. Price are both at 45.
12:19am: Since we last looked, Sharron Angle really turned on the afterburners. Now she's at 38, with Sue Lowden at 29 and Tark at 22 (oh, and carpetbagging investment banker John Chachas at 4). We're closing on on half reporting. Angle has pulled into the lead (36-33) in Clark County, where over half the votes are.
12:16am: Bass masters her opposition. Karen Bass, former state Speaker, is at a whopping 85% against minor opposition to succeed Diane Watson in CA-33.
12:14am: In CA-26, David Dreier's at 78% against minor opposition, much better than a lot of other insider Reps tonight. If anyone knows how to survive a teabagging, it's him.
12:10am: AP calls CA-Sen for Carly Fiorina. 54 for her, to 26 for Campbell for 17 for DeVore. Campbell heads back to the pasture to resume frightening sheep.
12:09am: Only 2% in in CA-11, but David Harmer is breaking away. He's at 39, with Tony Amador and Elizabeth Emken both at 24, and liberal huntin' vintner Brad Goehring at 12.
12:07am: Here's one more totally unexpected teabagging underway in dark red CA-02. With 10% in, Wally Herger (R) is at only 62% against Some Dude.
12:05am: Holy crap! CA-Sen (D) has been called for Barbara Boxer. The ghost of Paul Wellstone has struck down Mickey Kaus.
12:02am: Here's a race that was on nobody's radar screen: Laura Richardson (D in a safe blue district, but associated with foreclosures and a general sense of being out-to-lunch), is at only 65%, although against scattered opposition.
12:01am: Less than 5% reporting, but CA-36 (D) may turn out to be something of a non-event; Jane Harman leads Marcy Winograd 65-35.
12:00am: Onto the Cali House races. In CA-19 (R), with about 23% reporting, Jeff Denham leads Jim Patterson and Richard Pombo 44-23-20. Looks like that poll surge for Patterson didn't pan out.
11:58pm: Back to South Carolina for a minute, where it's been confirmed that in SC-01, we're headed to a GOP runoff between CfG protege Tim Scott and legacy candidate Paul Thurmond. Sorry, "Tumpy."
11:55pm: Initiatives! Prop 14 (top two primary) passing, 60-40. Peace & Freedom Party heads for dustbin of history. Prop 15 (public financing of elections) failing, 43-57. Prop 16 (electric company tyranny) passing, 53-47. And Prop 17 (auto insurance) also passing 55-45.
11:53pm: AP calls CA-Gov (R) for Meg Whitman. $80-odd million and counting; how much will she spend by November?
11:50pm: For LG, it's Newsom 52, Hahn 35, and for the GOP, it's Maldonado 48, Aanestad 28. For AG, Harris leads at 28, with Kelly at 19, Torrico at 15, Lieu at 14, Delgadillo way back at 8. And among GOPer AGers, Cooley 52, Eastman 30.
11:48pm: And in the Senate, Carly Fiorina is leading Tom Campbell and Chuck DeVore 58-23-17. Barbara Boxer leading Mickey Kaus (does that rhyme with Mickey Mouse? never noticed that till now) 78-5.
11:46pm: Quick non-California update: AR-01 called for Chad Causey. Not much love for public hanging, even in West Memphis (home of the West Memphis 3!).
11:45pm: We're getting close to 5% reporting in California statewide, so let's turn our attention to the Golden State. Meg Whitman is beating Steve Poizner 64-26, outpacing the polls a bit. Y'know, Jerry Brown is too, actually; he leads Richard Aguirre 83-4.
11:40pm: This may turn out to be the weirdest story of the night, about Alvin Greene, the 32-year-old unemployed ex-military guy who lives with his dad and who now happens to be the Dem nominee for Senate in South Carolina (instead of expected candidate Vic Rawl, a Charleston Co. Commissioner). Somehow he came across $10K to file, and has seemed to have run a phantom campaign ever since then. How did he get here? We'll no doubt hear more in coming days.
11:35pm: And now the news that'll have everyone saying "Who?" AP calls ME-Gov (D) for Libby Mitchell. She'll face Paul LePage in the duel of the unknowns.
11:34pm: We'll start with the bad news; AP calls IA-Gov (R) for Terry Branstad. But only 50-40 over Vander Plaats.
11:24pm: The night is winding down, but CA and NV are just getting cranked up.
11:33pm: Party's moved next door.
11:31pm: AR-02 has been called by AP for Elliott, now 54-46. She'll face Tim Griffin... probably not as good a matchup for Dems as Wills.
11:29pm: Angle's back in the lead in NV-Sen! 35, to Lowden's 33, with 21 for Tarkanian. 14% in. I'm sure we'll see lots of back and forth gyrations in this one as different counties report. Lowden has small lead in Clark, while Angle has a much bigger lead in Washoe.
11:27pm: AP has called GOP primary in NJ-12 for Scott Sipprelle, rich guy, over teabagger opposition, but only 54-46. Rush Holt probably not very scared. GOP primary in NJ-06 is still 50-50, with Diane Gooch trailing by 100.
11:25pm: Add a couple more New Jersey races to the list of races where no-name teabaggers held moderates down to so-so numbers. Leonard Lance only racked up 56% in NJ-07, and Chris Smith in NJ-04 held to 69%. Both were 'yes' votes on cap & trade.
11:21pm: All the Arkansas House races are super close. In AR-01, it's Causey 51, Wooldridge 49, with 94% in. In AR-02, it's Elliot 52, Wills 48, with 91% in. And in AR-03, it's Womack 50, Bledsoe 50, with Womack up by about 200, although that's only with 75% in.
11:15pm: ME-Gov (R) called for Paul LePage. Looking like he'll take on Libby Mitchell in the fall.
11:12pm: Only 1% reporting, but the AP has already called NV-Gov (R) for ex-judge Brian Sandoval. Even the RGA supported him over Jim Gibbons.
11:10pm: Oh yeah, poll closed in California ten minutes ago.
11:01pm: In Iowa, the AP calls IA-03 (R) for Brad Zaun, who will take on Leonard Boswell. In IA-02, Mariannette Miller-Meeks of the dreaded ophthalmologists will rematch against Dave Loebsack.
11:00pm: The AP calls AR-Sen for Blanche Lincoln.
10:51pm: A smattering of precincts and early votes coming in from Nevada, including Clark County (Las Vegas). Gibbons is losing big time to Sandoval in NV-Gov, 57-23. Chicken Lady ahead of Angle 36-33 with Tarkanian at 20.
10:48pm: Ganja break OVER! Maine is now up to 38% in. Libby Mitchell has extended her lead to 34-26 over Rowe, and Paul LePage is cruising.
10:43pm: How baked must they be in Maine right about now? Been at 12% since... whoa... are those Cool Ranch Doritos?
10:40pm: Chad Causey looks like he might hold out over Tim "The Hangman" Wooldridge in AR-01. Meanwhile, Joyce Elliott now has a lead over Robbie Wills in AR-02. And in AR-03, teabagger fave Cecile Bledsoe is beating Steve Womack 54-46. Bledsoe is both a teabagger queen and sort of the establishment choice - I dunno, though, it was a weird race.
10:37pm: We're pretty confident in calling ND-AL for state Rep. Kristi Noem, who beat the more-or-less establishment choice, SoS Chris Nelson. You only need 35% to avoid a runoff in SD, and Noem has a 41-36 lead with most of the votes in.
10:32pm: Halter took a brief lead for a moment there, but it's back to where it was.
10:27pm: AR-Sen is 51-49 Blanche, but Halter is still behind where he needs to be, according to our model. If you want a fuller explanation of how our model works, click here.
10:23pm: With 12% reporting, Terry Branstad is up just 51-40 over Bob Vander Plaats in IA-Gov (R).
10:13pm: Can't wait to see those NV-Sen results start to roll in (soon, I hope). Meanwhile, our friends up in Maine seem to be on the first ganja break of the evening.
RESULTS:
This diary has the baselines for the Nevada Senate race this time. Reid is currently unpopular because the Senate is unpopular and Reid is the Senate Majority Leader. Also, the economy in Nevada is bad after the foreclosure crisis and the decrease in tourists so Nevadans will be blaming the incumbent. About 20 candidates are running against Reid in the Republican primary. Since the primary does not occur until June 8th, I do not know who the Republican nominee will be. Most polls suggest Sue Lowden (R), a former State Senator from Clark County will be the nominee. Recently, she damaged her chances by talking about bartering healthcare for chickens. Still, a recent poll showed her with a lead of 17 points in the primary. Another recent poll showed her lead by 10 points drop to 4. She has not even faced Reid's 25 million dollars in a state where 1 million is enough to run a credible campaign. This race should turn around faster as soon as every voter knows about Lowden's chicken comment and anything else Reid can find. Lowden benefits however from the fact that Clark County will not see a high African American turnout or Hispanic turnout (which definitely will change if the immigration bill gets the Hispanic community active.)
A bit about Reid's past elections: in 2004, he won 61%-35% against Richard Ziser, a real estate investor from Las Vegas. Reid even won the majority of voters outside of Clark County (Las Vegas.) Being a Mormon may have helped in rural areas but now that the rural areas are prime teabagger territory, Reid may face very large Republicans margins there. In 1998, it was not as easy. John Ensign (R), the now disgraced Republican Junior Senator of Nevada ran against Harry Reid. Ensign lost by only 100 votes while losing Clark County by nine but barely winning Washoe County (Reno).
About the baselines: the baselines show the candidates' percentages for each county if the race were a tie. I found them by adding percentages from Reid's 2004 Senatorial election and the 2008 presidential election by county. Then I divided the result by two, giving me the baselines. I am sorry that the baselines are not in a straight line. After some links, you will see them.
The baselines do not show too many surprises for me. It shows Reid winning Clark County in the high single digits which he needs to do to win. Also, the only other county he wins is Mineral County which McCain won by six points in 2008. Reid also loses Washoe County by one point which makes sense because Washoe County recently votes in line with the candidates' statewide percentages. A difference with the baselines is that I expect Reid to win Washoe County by a few hundred votes if the race ties because Washoe County is trending Democratic quickly.
Just in case you were wondering, I will do Florida's Gubernatorial race next. Do you have any suggestions for statewide races after that?
PBI or Party Brand Index is a concept I developed (with some much appreciated help from pl515) as a replacement for PVI. PVI (Partisan Voting Index), which is measured by averaging the percentage of the vote from the last two presidential elections in each house district, and comparing it to the nation as a whole, is a useful shorthand for understanding the liberal v. conservative dynamics of a district. But PVI in my opinion it falls short in a number of areas. First it doesn't explain states like Arkansas or West Virginia. These states have districts who's PVIs indicates a Democrat shouldn't win, yet Democrats (outside of the presidency) win quite handily. Secondly why is this the case in Arkansas but not Oklahoma with similar PVI rated districts?
Lastly PVI can miss trends as it takes 4 years to readjust. The purpose of Party Brand Index is to give a better idea of how a candidate does not relative to how the presidential candidate did, but compared to how their generic PARTY should be expected to perform. I've tackled IN, NC, CO, VA, MO, OK, AR, now I will look at the swing states of Nevada and Iowa.
Redistricting is popular around here, so I really don't need to explain this any more. Here's a plan for Nevada that's 3-1. I wanted to protect Berkley and Titus, and create a 3rd Democratic district.
I crunched population data by census block for Clark County into precincts, and by census VTDs for Douglas, Lyon, and Nye Counties.
So here's the map:
Data (both political and population) after the flip.
According to the population estimates, I decided that Nevada would get a new congressional district even though it was hard hit by the foreclosure crisis. My goal was to create a new Democratic district while protecting newly elected Democrat Dina Titus in the 3rd Congressional district. I believe I succeeded in packing most of the Republican areas into one district. I made the map with Dave's Redistricting App which is really fantastic. My next map should be either Louisiana or New Jersey. Enough talk, here is the link to my maps: http://frogandturtle.blogspot....
District 1 Shelly Barkely (D) (Blue)
I gave Barkley a strong Democratic district containing much of Las Vegas and neighborhoods in North Las Vegas with high minority populations. Still, I believe I kept enough heavily Democratic areas out of the 1st to protect Titus and strengthen the 2nd. The district is still minority majority and I believe Barkley or any Democrat will have no trouble winning this district. It probably voted about 66% for Obama. The racial stats are 12% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 46% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 2 No Incumbent (Green)
This was the new district I created that I hope will vote Democratic. The current representative is Dean Heller and I put his home in Carson City outside of the district. I hope that will deter him from running here. Even though most of his district is here, it is the more Democratic parts. The district stretches from the northern border, through Reno, along the western border and finally goes to take in some Democratic neighborhoods in Clark County (Las Vegas.) I think 20% of the district is in Clark County and 60% is in Reno. This would almost ensure that if a Democrat is elected, he or she will be from Reno. Looking at the numbers, Obama won the northern part of the district by about 13,000 votes but I am not sure of his margin in the Clark County portion. I estimate that he still won about 53%-55% of the vote in this district. That percentage should be enough to elect a Democrat. The racial stats for this district are 3% Black, 24% Hispanic, 6% Asian and 64% White. Status is Lean Democrat.
District 3 Dina Titus (D) (Purple)
I definitely strengthened Dina Titus enough by giving her some precincts that were formerly in the 1st district and by taking out Republican parts of Henderson and the outer Las Vegas suburbs. I believe the district is too Democratic for Jon Porter. He will probably run for the Republican 4th district. Dina Titus should worry about nothing except that she might face a minority candidate in the primary. Whatever way it goes, this district is in Democratic hands for the foreseeable future. It probably voted around 61% for Obama. The racial stats are 10% Black, 31% Hispanic, 8% Asian and 49% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 4 Dean Heller (R) (Red)
This district is where I put most of the Republicans. It looks like it is centered in the "Cow Counties" or the counties outside of Clark and Reno Counties. Actually, it is based in Clark County and takes in Republican parts of Henderson. Even though I put Dean Heller's home in the 4th district, I believe that Jon Porter or another Clark County Republican would run for this district. Dean Heller is a relatively new representative and he would definitely face trouble. Since most of the constituents live in Clark County, Heller will have to struggle to introduce himself to the people there. Still, I think it would be easy for a Clark County Republican to brand Heller as a Republican from the far corner of the state. Heller will probably lose but the district will most likely remain Republican. It probably voted about 56% to 59% for McCain. Racial stats are 4% Black, 18% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 70% White. Status is Safe Republican
Now that all 9 Democratic pick-up states plus NE-02 have been analysed, I have also provided an exhaustive and most unique non-partisan summary of the pick-up states. I can guarantee you that there is information in this summary that you will not find anywhere else in this quality, clarity or combination.
There are a number of side-documents that go with the summary, plus links to all of the nine analyses and the GE 2008 final analysis for the entire Union.
I want to explain again that I have farmed this kind of thing out to Google Docs as it makes it easier for me to publish charts, tables and graphics. It is my hope that you will read the summary in it's entirety. There are surprises all over the place that only become apparent when one scratches under the surface and researches the GE 2008 at the county level, county for county. In the case of the 9.25 pick-ups, we are talking about 696 counties.
The summary is divided into 2 parts and all of this information is after the jump.
