Now that it's 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it's time to look at Mississippi, Missouri, Nebraska, Nevada, and New Hampshire.
Here we are again. What, you thought one map was enough? Now that the US Senate race is heating up and speculation is picking up on who will be doing what, I wanted to explore alternative scenarios to one I posted earlier this month. So here's another option... But I have to warn you, it isn't pretty.
It is here. After hours of careful line drawing and days of poring over precinct results, the map has arrived. This is Nevada redistricted, baby!
So will the actual final map look something like this? Honestly, I don't know for sure. Perhaps legislators on both sides of the aisle will want even safer seats and are willing to configure some gruesome looking districts to get them... Or perhaps last minute talks of redistricting collapse as a casualty in an ongoing state budget brawl, leaving the courts to ultimately draw the lines. But most likely, as is usual tradition, The Nevada Legislature will agree on some sort of last minute budget deal, and on a bipartisan redistricting gerrymander.
Fast-growing Nevada is adding a fourth congressional district in this round of redistricting. The C.W. says Republicans, who control the governor's mansion, and Democrats, who control both houses of the State Legislature, will work toward a 2-2 compromise, although the solidity of one Republican seat may be dubious. I tend to think a 2-1-1 map is likelier, with the swing district favoring the incumbent.
Forth Eorlingas:
Now, uh, before getting deep into this, I should note that unlike some of our Nevadan SSPers, I haven't memorized the home addresses of every sitting congressperson in Nevada or every prospective candidate for the new NV-04 or a (likely) vacancy in NV-01 or NV-02. So, this map may need some tweaking. Just let me know, help me out.
I'll start out of order, because the way districts are numbered in Nevada is weird.
NV-02 (green)
Rep. Dean Heller, the Republican congressman for this district, is widely expected to launch a primary challenge to sleazy Sen. Ensign, but he seems to be crossing his fingers for a retirement in the meantime. The trend for Republicans in Northern Nevada is...not great. Washoe County is quickly becoming another Democratic stronghold in the state, and the surrounding counties appear to be on a blue trend. Elko, in northeastern Nevada, is a Republican stronghold, and the minor population center there combined with the still-reddish sprawl around Reno and Carson City should keep this district on the Republican side of the PVI line, but it's uncomfortably close to EVEN PVI and there doesn't seem to be a lot Republicans can do about it. If Heller runs, he'll probably retain it, but if he goes for Senate, it's going to be very close in a presidential year. Tossup/Tilt Republican.
NV-01 (blue)
I think the expectation is that Democratic Rep. Shelly Berkley will run for Senate, potentially setting up a marquee battle with Heller, her colleague in the Nevada congressional delegation. I'm pretty sure her house is included in this district either way - but the person I had in mind while drawing this district is Steven Horsford, the term-limited Nevada Senate Majority Leader. Horsford, if elected, would become the first African American congressman from the Mountain West in...a while. The racial breakdown, for the curious, is 52.3% white, 13.4% black, 20.2% Latino, and 10% Asian. Safe Democratic.
NV-03 (yellow)
This district is represented by freshman Rep. Joe Heck, the Republican who put Southern-talkin' Democrat Dina Titus on ice last year even as Sen. Reid stomped nutty Tea Party conservative Sharron Angle by a five-point spread. Interestingly enough, Heck would see his district balloon out substantially to eclipse NV-02 in size under this map. While the vast majority of this district's population is in Clark County, the little fraction that comes out of the rest of the state has a huge geographic footprint, because the cow counties are so underpopulated (this may have something to do with them being a jumble of arid desert, craggy mountain ranges, and current and former nuclear test sites). Heck, who lives in Henderson, gets the lion's share of exurban Clark County, as well as bedroom communities in Nye County, and the more conservative Las Vegas suburbs. Titus has been redistricted out, but she could always move back, I suppose. Likely Republican.
NV-04 (red)
Nevada is getting a brand-new district, and that means at least one open-seat contest next year. Potential Democratic candidates for this VRA seat (31% white, 10.1% black, 49.2% Latino, 6.7% Asian) include Ruben Kihuen, a Mexican American state senator with an independent streak; John Oceguera, the term-limited Speaker of the State Assembly, who would become the country's only Native American congressman if elected; Richard Carrillo, also a member of the State Assembly; and Dina Titus, the former NV-03 representative. This district should be solid ground for the Democrats, whoever runs, although I think a Latino Democrat would be favored in the primary. Safe Democratic.
[Note: This year, we will be voting in municipal elections in cities throughout Clark County. Las Vegas will be voting for Mayor (Oscar Goodman is termed out) and three city council seats. Henderson and North Las Vegas will also be voting for three city council seats each. And all cities will also be voting for local judges. Clark County Elections only occur in even numbered years.
Carolyn Goodman is the wife of outgoing Las Vegas Mayor Oscar Goodman, the founder of the prestigious private Meadows School, and a registered Nonpartisan. Victor Chaltiel is the Republican being backed by casino magnate Sheldon Adelson. Larry Brown and Chris Giunchigliani are both Democrats and incumbent Clark County Commissioners.]
The Census Bureau unleashed population data from five more states today. First off is Alabama, who remained at seven seats (although they were close to losing one). Their target for 2010 is 682,819, up from about 635K in 2000. Most of the action looks to be in the Birmingham area, where suburban AL-06 was the big gainer and urban VRA district AL-07 was the big loser. While the knee-jerk expectation would be that AL-07 would simply extend out into the suburbs to make up that deficit, it's likelier that the newly-GOP-controlled legislature will try to extend AL-07 to Montgomery or Huntsville (or both) to incorporate the African-American populations there, in order to make it blacker and the state's other districts safer for white Republican representatives.
District
Population
Deviation
AL-01
687,841
5,022
AL-02
673,877
(8,942)
AL-03
681,298
(1,521)
AL-04
660,162
(22,657)
AL-05
718,724
35,905
AL-06
754,482
71,663
AL-07
603,352
(79,467)
Total:
4,779,736
Hawaii is pretty drama-free; its new target is 680,151, up from 605K in 2000. With Maui as the fastest growing part of the state, the 2nd will need to give a little population to the 1st, although the boundary movement will happen in the suburban parts of Oahu.
District
Population
Deviation
HI-01
658,672
(21,479)
HI-02
701,629
21,748
Total:
1,360,301
Missouri missed the cut, and needs to lose one of its nine seats. Based on eight seats, its new target is 748,616, up from 622K in 2000. Missouri redistricting isn't going to go well for Dems (and for Russ Carnahan, in particular) because the three districts with the lowest population are the three districts with Democratic representatives. While MO-01 lost the most population, the VRA will probably keep this in place as a black-majority district for Lacy Clay: the city of St. Louis's population has shrunk so much (now only 319K) that it only makes up about half a district anymore, and his district already includes the city's black-majority northern suburbs, so it's likely to have to move westward into the inner-ring suburbs of St. Louis County or else southward to encompass all of St. Louis city. Either way, that's coming out of Russ Carnahan's MO-03, which will also need to give some ground to MO-08 below it.
District
Population
Deviation
MO-01
587,069
(161,547)
MO-02
706,622
(41,994)
MO-03
625,251
(123,365)
MO-04
679,375
(69,241)
MO-05
633,887
(114,729)
MO-06
693,974
(54,642)
MO-07
721,754
(26,862)
MO-08
656,894
(91,722)
MO-09
684,101
(64,515)
Total:
5,988,927
I think we've found the most populous CD in the entire nation: NV-03, with more than a million people (its main rival for that honor, UT-03, didn't break that mark; see below). Nevada, of course, is moving to four districts, with a target of 675,138 (up only slightly from 666K in 2000, but that was a three-district map). As you might expect, the state has become significantly more Hispanic, with the 1st going from 28% Hispanic in 2000 to 37%, the 2nd from 15% to 20%, and the 3rd from 16% to 23%.
While there had been discussion of Joe Heck's district expanding outward to take in some of the rural counties, that will barely need to happen. Clark County (where Las Vegas is) has a population of 1,951,269, which is 72.3% of the state's population (up from 68% in 2000). In other words, with 3/4s of the state's population in Clark Co., NV-02 can pretty much continue being all of the state except Clark County (although it'll need to lose its current small portions in Clark Co.), while Clark Co. will be divvied up among three districts instead of two. (Although, considering how empty the cow counties are, that stray 2.7% of the state may still wind up occupying a huge geographical footprint.)
District
Population
Deviation
NV-01
820,134
144,996
NV-02
836,562
161,424
NV-03
1,043,855
368,717
Total:
2,700,551
Utah, of course, is also set to gain a seat. Its new four-seat target is 690,971 (the target was 744K in 2000, when it had three seats). The biggest growth was in Salt Lake City's southern suburbs and also in the Provo area further south, both of which are found in UT-03. Whether the GOP-controlled legislature creates a new seat confined to the SLC area or tries cracking it four ways instead of three will depend on whether they decide to target Jim Matheson (currently the Democrat with the reddest House seat) or concedes a seat to him.
Merry Christmas to everyone who celebrates it, whether on 25 December or otherwise. While waiting for the ham to be done, I drew up a map of Nevada with four shiny new districts, just what the U.S. Census Bureau ordered.
The way I drew it, we're basically looking at a 2-2 map, with three if not all of those districts being somewhat "soft" (potentially competitive in the right cycle) due to the quirks of Nevada geography, politics, and geopolitics. Some people on other threads (the Missouri one, for example) have suggested that Gov.-elect Sandoval and the Republicans will probably be satisfied to shore up Rep.-elect Heck somewhat in exchange for letting the Democrats have their way, to an extent, with the new NV-04. I'm inclined to agree. Also, drawing a safe 1-3 map for a rapidly blueing state like Nevada is not terribly easy.
I don't usually go out of order, but we should probably start at the top here (geographically rather than numerically) because Nevada is an oddly shaped state.
NV-02 (green, safe lean Republican)
Rep. Dean Heller, a Republican, is thought to be prepping a Senate bid against Sen. John Ensign, the scandal-tarnished Republican incumbent whose unreliability and moral flexibility has been a thorn in the side of Republican leadership in Nevada and in Washington for several years now. If he decides to forgo a bid for statewide office in favor of running for reelection, I doubt he'll have a problem here. Washoe County may be swingy, but Heller is popular, and any Republican can run up crushing margins in the cow counties. If Heller runs for Senate in 2012, though, Republicans and Democrats alike will want to put a lot of effort into recruiting top-tier candidates here.
NV-01 (blue, safe Democratic)
Vegas, baby! This is Rep. Shelley Berkley's district, and she's considered the likeliest Democrat to run for Ensign's seat in 2012. I figure she'll vacate, and it's just as well, because although Nevada isn't a VRA preclearance state, the Department of Justice may lean on the incoming Sandoval administration to ensure a minority-majority seat. Latinos are actually about a quarter of Nevada's population, they're the fastest-growing demographic, and it's pretty easy to draw a compact Latino-plurality district. This district is actually 28% white, 14% black, 6% Asian, and 49% Latino, going off 2008 population estimates, and I'll bet dollars to doughnuts it's outright Latino-majority in the new census data. Sandoval himself may do okay here, but it's a safe Democratic district.
NV-03 (purple, likely Republican)
Rep.-elect Joe Heck edged Rep. Dina Titus, flipping the present "fair fight" incarnation of this district from blue to red, last month. One of Sandoval's top priorities will be shoring him up. Adding a bunch of cow counties and consolidating the district's hold on white-collar Clark County precincts is a decent way of accomplishing that. While Sharron Angle might lose this district, and Titus could conceivably take it back, it now tips pretty firmly in Heck's favor.
NV-04 (red, likely Democratic)
One of the big reasons why the current NV-03 is a swing district is that it includes both Democratic and Republican areas along with some subdivisions that go both ways (no, not like that, most of those are pretty heavily Democratic). I gave most of those Republican areas to my NV-03, or at least I tried to, while NV-04 takes over most of the Democratic areas, centering around Spring Valley. It's a mostly suburban district, though it includes just a bit of rural Clark County up Highway 95. Titus or another strong Democrat with a suburban base should be pretty solid here except in particularly gruesome cycles, although a socially moderate or libertarian Republican could potentially win it.
As a Christmas bonus, I'm also going to repost my revised and updated map for Missouri, which shrinks to eight districts in 2012's redistricting, without much commentary:
This isn't necessarily the most favorable map Democrats can possibly get, but it's probably the most favorable map they're likely to get in 2012. (There's a whole discussion about this on the other diary.) It's probably a 3-5 map, with Democratic Rep. Russ Carnahan's MO-03 (purple) likely playing host to a deathmatch between Carnahan and Republican Rep. Jo Ann Emerson of Cape Girardeau in 2012.
A few quick notes: Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay's MO-01 (blue) is 48% white, 47% black, remaining VRA-compliant. I was of the school of thought saying it couldn't be done without throwing Carnahan overboard, but there you have it. Carnahan's share of St. Louis County consists almost entirely of precincts that voted for then-Sen. Barack Obama in the 2008 presidential election, so I think Mr. Local Boy has a good base there. And Republican Rep. Todd Akin's home in rich white Town and Country remains in his district of MO-02 (green).
Not much to add here. Democratic Rep. Emanuel Cleaver in MO-08 (slate blue), renumbered from the current MO-05, still doesn't get a VRA district, but he's a good politician who is popular with both white and black Democrats in Kansas City. I resisted the urge to dismember Republican Rep.-elect Vicki Hartzler's MO-05 (yellow), renumbered from the current MO-04, because I didn't think the Republicans in the Missouri state legislature would let such a plan get to Democratic Gov. Jay Nixon's desk.
Hope everyone is dividing their time as they see fit between family, friends, and politics. Thoughts on either map are welcome and appreciated.
OK, so I've had more time to process what happened. And I had a chance to talk with my old Cali friends at Netroots California last Saturday. And I came out surprisingly hopeful about our future.
