OK, so I've had more time to process what happened. And I had a chance to talk with my old Cali friends at Netroots California last Saturday. And I came out surprisingly hopeful about our future.
Netroots Nation: In case you missed it, click the link to watch the video of our panel on the 2010 horserace from last Friday at Netroots Nation. It was a terrific, fast-paced panel and we were asked a broad range of questions on a ton of different races. Fun stuff! Also of interest, Greenberg Quinlan Rosner conducted a straw poll of convention-goers. They included one horserace-ish question, asking participants which race was their top priority this fall. 31% picked NV-Sen, followed by PA-Sen (25%), KY-Sen (21%), MN-06 (15%), and VA-05 (7%).
CA-Sen: The NRSC has reserved $1.75 million in ad time for Carly Fiorina - but remember, just cuz you reserve time doesn't mean you necessarily wind up buying it, so this could just be a feint.
FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek is up with his first ad, attacking zillionaire schmuckface Jeff Greene for his past run for Congress in California - as a Republican - and for the windfall he reaped by betting on a housing market collapse two years ago. Adam Smith of the St. Pete Times says the buy is for $420K, which he thinks is "pretty small" for the pretty big state of Florida.
IL-Sen: Mark Kirk is pulling a Pat Toomey. You'll recall that the ultra-conservative Pennsylvania senate candidate somewhat surprisingly endorsed Sonia Sotomayor's nomination for the Supreme Court. Now it's Kirk's turn to try to burnish his "moderate" credentials, so he's backing Elena Kagan.
Meanwhile, here's some new craziness: A federal district court judge just ordered a special election to fill the remaining months of Roland Burris's term, most likely to coincide with the regular election in November. Both Kirk and Dem Alexi Giannoulias have said they want to run in the special, and they probably won't have to face a primary, since the judge seems inclined to allow nominees to be picked by party committees. Politico points out a potentially huge angle to all of this: the FEC says that since the special would constitute a new election, the candidates would be able to raise fresh money for that race - meaning that Kirk and Giannoulias could hit up maxed-out donors once more.
PA-Sen: But wait! Pat Toomey isn't pulling a Pat Toomey! He's coming out against Elena Kagan.
WV-Sen: When early word came that Rep. Shelley Moore Capito wouldn't run for Robert Byrd's seat, we said that we'd move the race to Likely D. Capito made it official last Wednesday, so consider this move retroactive to that date.
MI-Gov: Bummer: Detroit Mayor Dave Bing has endorsed DLC Dem Andy Dillon, whom Dillon called a "kindred spirit." Given Bing's outsider status and short tenure, I suspect he's not quite a "machine" mayor, though, who can deliver wards on the turn of a heel.
MN-Gov: Republican gubernatorial nominee Tom Emmer continues to burnish his moron credentials. The other day, he declared that Minnesota should pass its own GI bill to help veterans. Good idea, right? So good, in fact, that the state actually passed such a law three years ago. Even better: Emmer, a state representative, voted against the bill!
RI-Gov: Linc Chafee won the endorsement of the 10,000-strong Rhode Island Federation of Teachers and Health Professionals, his first big union nod. The Projo says that the teachers had been favored to go to AG Patrick Lynch, but Lynch rather unexpectedly dropped out of the race not long ago, and evidently Dem Treasurer Frank Caprio didn't suit them.
SC-Gov: Nikki Haley, a member of the Strength Through Crippling Austerity wing of the Republican Party, is trying to soften (i.e., flip-flop) some of her less business-friendly stances. The AP explains her shifts on two issues: the infamous anti-tax pledge sponsored by Americans for Tax Reform, and the bailout.
IL-17: Can an internal poll sometimes seem just too good? That's how I feel about this survey by Magellan Strategies for GOPer Bobby Schilling, which has him up 45-32 over Dem Rep. Phil Hare. YMMV.
NY-13: John McCain is endorsing former FBI agent Mike Grimm in the GOP primary. Grimm has faced hostility from the Republican establishment here, which has backed Michael Allegretti (whom Maggie Haberman delightfully refers to with the epithet "Bayside fuel heir"). Apparently, McCain (who has a race of his own to worry about) will both fundraise and campaign for Grimm, though no word yet on when. As for why he's getting involved, Haberman says it's because of his relationship with Rudy Giuliani and Guy Molinari, both of whom are supporting Grimm.
NY-15: Charlie Rangel's autobiography is titled "And I Haven't Had a Bad Day Since," referring to his service in the Korean War. Well, it sure seems like he's had more than a few bad days lately, with the latest batch coming in the last week. The House Ethics Committee declared on Thursday that Rangel had indeed committed transgressions and created a new panel to investigate further. In response, Indiana senate candidate Brad Ellsworth announced he would give to charity all the money he's received from Rangel (some $12K). Rep. Betty Sutton (OH-13) went one further, calling on Rangel to resign. For the record, Rangel disagrees with me, saying: "I'm not in a foxhole, I'm not surrounded by a million Chinese communists coming after me. Life is good. I'm 80 years old. I'm on my way to a parade."
OK-05: SoonerPoll.com has a survey out of the 5th CD Republican field, finding former state Rep. Kevin Calvey increasing his lead from 20 to 28 since the last test in March. Some Dude James Lankford is in second with 20, followed by 15 for state Rep. Mike Thompson, 6 for state Rep. Shane Jett, and a bunch of other Some Dudes bringing up the rear.
PA-15: This is what we call a good get: Bill Clinton will be coming to Salisbury Township for a fundraiser for John Callahan on August 10th. As is so often the case with the Big Dog, this is payback for Callahan's support of Hillary Clinton's presidential bid in 2008.
Willie W. Herenton, the former mayor, is accusing Steve Cohen, the white two-term United States representative, of "trying to act black." He tells voters in this majority-black city that they "need to come off that Cohen plantation and get on the Herenton freedom train."
WI-03: State Sen. Dan Kapanke has an internal out from Public Opinion Strategies (memo here) which shows Dem Rep. Ron Kind up just 44-38.
The editors of Daily Kos and Swing State Project are teaming up for a Q&A on the 2010 elections here in Las Vegas. This show is set to go off at 4:30 Pacific time, and you can watch the live feed below. More information on the panel (and the panelists) is available here.
UPDATE: A big thank you to everyone who came to our panel or watched us online. If you missed it, you can view a recording here or just watch the video embedded above.
We've mentioned it previously, but I just wanted to pimp it one last time: James, Crisitunity and I will all be doing a Q&A panel at Netroots Nation this coming Friday, on exactly the topic you'd expect us to be doing: the 2010 horserace. Here's the full description:
2010: The Big Picture
Time: Friday, July 23rd, 4:30pm - 5:45pm
Room: Brasilia 6
The editors of Daily Kos and the Swing State Project invite you to join them for an in-depth Q&A about the 2010 elections. We'll take questions on all subjects, from the nitty-gritty-polling, fundraising and redistricting - to the big picture - marquee races, key themes and the impact on progressive goals. If you want to know more about what's going to happen in November and what it will mean for Democrats, Republicans and the entire country, stop in!
Also on the panel will be Markos Moulitsas, Laura Clawson, and Steve Singiser from Daily Kos. It will be moderated by Joan McCarter, also of DK. There are quite a few other horserace-themed panels that are worth checking out - you can search the complete Netroots Nation agenda here. I also wanted to give a special shout-out to filmmaker Jeff Reichert, who will be doing a "showcase" screening of about twenty minutes from his new movie Gerrymandering, a topic of keen interest to many folks here.
Anyhow, if you're going to be at NN, let us know in comments! And look us up at the convention!
UPDATE: Streaming video of our panel will be made available here.
AR-Sen: SSP hero and perfect fuckup Bill Sali held yard sales to raise money for his flailing campaign. GOP senate hopeful Kim Hendren is doing him one better: He's selling five of his black angus cows. Moo.
KY-Sen: Like rival Jack Conway, Dem Dan Mongiardo is making a small, made-for-media ad buy criticizing Jim Bunning's fight against unemployment benefits, and specifically calls out teabaggers. Mongiardo being Mongiardo, though, his spokesbot can't resist taking a douchey shot at Conway's ad. Seems like sour grapes, since Conway's team thought of the idea first.
NY-Gov: Headline for the times, from the Times: "Paterson Still Governor, for Now." Also, Generalissimo Francisco Franco still dead. Only one of these statements is likely to remain true for much longer.
TX-Gov: The battle lines have been drawn, and it'll be secessionista Rick Perry vs. former Houston Mayor Bill White. Rasmussen sees Perry leading 49-43, not much changed from the 47-41 he had it in late February. White has 54-34 favorables, while Perry is at 54-46. Though since Ras (contra every other pollster) likes to look at only "very favorable" and "very unfavorable" scores, it's worth noting that Perry is at just 18-23 by that metric, while White is at 25-13. Whoops!
AL-05: Minority Leader John Boehner is bringing his orange perma-tan with him to Alabama to do a fundraiser for turncoat Parker Griffith. Griffith's two teabaggy opponents are furious about this turn of events and trying to get some mileage out of casting Griffith as the establishment choice. With DC as toxic as it's ever been, maybe that'll work. Still, I think Griffith is most likely to be defeated if the uber-wingnuts unite around a single candidate (see IL-14).
FL-08: Dem Rep. Alan Grayson released a stunty poll of the Republican primary in his race... but included his own name - and he's leading the pack. I've never heard of the pollster, Middleton Market Research, but their CEO is listed on LinkedIn as a "Senior Account Executive at To be determined."
FL-17: Another candidate got into the race to replace Kendrick Meek today: North Miami City Commissioner Scott Galvin. Galvin is the first white candidate in this 58% African American district.
GA-09: GOP Rep. Nathan Deal now says that he'll delay his resignation from the House until March 31st, so that he can vote against any healthcare legislation. This is probably a stunt to help Deal impress the Republican electorate, since he's trailed badly in all polling for the GA-Gov GOP nomination. Deal doesn't want to stay too much longer, though, since he's just one step ahead of an Ethics Committee investigation.
MS-01: Ah, cat fud. FOX Newser Angela McGlowan, a GOP candidate vying to take on Travis Childers, won't commit to backing the establishment favorite, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee if he should win the primary. This is exactly what the Republicans don't want, of course, since a bitterly divided primary in 2008 helped hand this seat to Childers in the first place. It's all the more remarkabe given how much effort the NRCC put into clearing the field for Nunnelee. I almost wonder if state Sen. Merle Flowers, who deferred to Nunnelee but did not endorse him, might be re-considering.
NY-29: Is this going to get worse before it gets better? The House Committee just launched an investigation into whatever it is Eric Massa is alleged to have done. Meanwhile, Massa is laying low - he's missed several votes (including one on the jobs bill) since his announcement.
PA-12: Former Murtha aide Mark Critz says that he's raised over $100,000 so far for his special election bid to replace his boss. Meanwhile, Critz's opponent for the Democratic nomination, ex-Treasurer Barbara Hafer, is pre-emptively doing all she can to discredit the nomination process, as well as pressing for the release of Critz's testimony to the House Ethics Committee. (J) On the Republican side, businessman Tim Burns has launched a teeny-weeny radio ad buy.
Netroots Nation: Thinking about heading to the progressive confab that is Netroots Nation? Well, MT Gov. Brian Schweitzer has already reserved a seat. He'll be the keynote speaker on the convention's opening night.
Redistricting: The National Democratic Redistricting Trust, a new group designed to support Dems in the inevitable legal battles over redistricting, has asked the FEC whether member of Congress can raise soft money to support the trust's efforts.
With all the talk of redistricting around here, I wanted to let people know about an upcoming panel on the topic at Netroots Nation in Pittsburgh.
The panel titled "Redistricting is Coming! Why Progressives Must Focus on the State Legislature in 2010 and How You Can Help" will be held on:
Thursday, August 13th at 4:30 p.m. in Rooms 301/302 at the Conference Center.
The panel will cover redistricting and recent history but will have a more intense focus on how Democrats can create a "permanent majority" beginning in 2010 at the state legislative level. The panel will look at what we can do to help ensure that redistricting happens in our favor, from finding key races to actively support across the country to running for office at a local level.
The panel will feature blogger Matt Glazer from Burnt Orange Report, Matt Compton the DLCC Communications Director, Sam Bennett from the Women's Campaign Forum, and State Rep. Chelsa Wagner (D-Pittsburgh. Christopher Massicotte, Director of Sales and Marketing for NGP, will moderate the panel discussion and interactive questioning. Join us for the event if you will be attending Netroots, the Facebook event is at http://bit.ly/qS1So.
But even if you are unable to make it, you can follow the action @leftyngp on Twitter or submit your own questions by using the hashtag, #redistricting2010.
Hope to see you all in Pittsburgh, or at least get some great questions for what should be an interesting panel!
From August 13-16 Pittsburgh will be hosting this years Netroots Nation, I want to be there to appear on a panel, attend other awesome panels, meet you all and do the whole Netroots Nation experience.
I'm looking for a roommate for NN. You'd have your own bedroom in a 2BR situation, very, very close to the convention center, right on 6th St. It's about two block according to Google Maps.
If you want to be in the center of it all, get a cheaper room than the nearby hotels, all while maintaining some privacy, get in touch.
Your cost would be about $312, which covers a Wednesday check-in with Monday morning check-out (5 nights). The nightly cost for the whole thing is cheaper than a room at the Hilton et al. There is also a $200 refundable deposit that I will have to pay. I'd ask for a check for $100 that I'd mail back to you when I got mine back.
The only downsides I am aware of: you must pay cash upon arrival (or money order / cashiers check) and it's so close to the party district as to be noisy. The noise is not a problem for me -- I sleep fine with earplugs and recommend them if this is the only reason you'd pass this up.
There is, I understand, also a pullout sofa in a loft over the living area. A third roommate could take that and reduce costs further, but I don't really see the need.
More about your potential roommate after the flip...
Netroots Nation is just over a week away. James and I are doing a panel which I know will be of interest to this site's readers:
60/275: The Races We Aren't Watching but Should (and Those We're Watching, Too)
Saturday, July 19th 3:00 PM - 4:15 PM
Discussion, Exhibit Hall 4
House and Senate campaign handicappers from Daily Kos, MyDD and the Swing State Project put their heads together to talk about the most important races around the country in 2008 - and the possibility of a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate and an even stronger majority in the House.
Joining us on the panel are Jonathan Singer of MyDD and Markos and Brownsox of Daily Kos. Two other members of the Swing State crew, Trent and Ben, will also be at the convention. Are you coming to Netroots Nation? Be sure to say hi if you are!
