A lesson for those who bashed Bill Owens......

by: DCCyclone

Sun Nov 08, 2009 at 8:39 AM EST

SSP Daily Digest: 10/16

by: Crisitunity

Fri Oct 16, 2009 at 3:30 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Joe Sestak's fundraising for the third quarter was half of what Arlen Specter raised: $758K for Sestak (also less than half of his 2Q number), vs. $1.8 million for Specter. Take out the money that Obama raised for Specter at their fundraiser, though, and they're close to parity on last quarter's numbers. Meanwhile, the allegedly fiscally-disciplined Pat Toomey raised $1.6 million in 3Q, but has been burning through cash quickly, spending $861K and ending up with $1.8 million CoH.

• IL-Gov: This is good news for John McCain... 's former media guy. State GOP chair Andy McKenna made clear he's going to, if nothing else, spend a lot of money on his gubernatorial campaign. He just hired ad guru Fred Davis, creator of the infamous "Celebrity" ad last summer. President McCain, of course, will confirm how well that one worked out for him.

• PA-Gov: Rasmussen polled the Democratic and Republican fields in the gubernatorial race, finding what most other pollsters have seen: AG Tom Corbett is mopping up on the GOP side, while nobody has a clue who the Democratic candidates are. Corbett leads Rep. Jim Gerlach 54-10 (with 6 for some other and 30 not sure). For the Dems, "not sure" is kicking ass at 37, followed by Allegheny Co. Exec Dan Onorato at 19, state Auditor Jack Wagner at 14, ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel at 11, Scranton mayor Chris Doherty at 6, rich guy Tom Knox at 4, and "some other" at 10.

• VA-Gov: One last look at how the candidates are faring financially in the Virginia governor's race. Bob McDonnell and Creigh Deeds raised about the same amount in September ($3.8 mil for McD, $3.5 mil for Deeds), but McDonnell enters the home stretch with a lot more cash on hand ($4.5 mil for McD, $2.8 mil for Deeds).

• FL-08: Among the contributors to liberal firebrand Rep. Alan Grayson's one-day haul of $60K at the end of the fundraising quarter (and after his "die quickly" speech) were two prominent Blue Dogs: Reps. Bart Gordon and Collin Peterson.

• FL-19: State Sen. Ted Deutch wasted no time. The leading contender to take over FL-19 in the wake of Rob Wexler's departure officially entered the race yesterday.

• IN-01: Nobody has really regarded long-time Democratic Rep. Pete Visclosky as vulnerable in his bluish district, but he's laboring under an ethical cloud from his role in the PMA lobbying firm scandal, and now out $100,000 in legal fees resulting from subpoenas in the matter. He's sitting on $916K CoH, down from $1.47 mil at this point in the 2007-08 cycle.

• NY-15: Rep. Charlie Rangel, facing some ethical problems of his own, may face another primary challenger with a famous family name: Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV (who previously ran against Rangel in 1994). With a former staffer already in the race, though, this could fracture the anti-Rangel vote and inadvertently let Rangel slip through again.

• NY-19: Looks like the free-spending Ophthalmologists' PAC has one sure target for their largesse this cycle: Nan Hayworth, a Westchester County eye doctor, says that she'll run for the GOP nomination. This is despite the presence of a high-profile (if somewhat questionable and controversial) recruit in the field already, Assemblyman Greg Ball. Hayworth starts with $318K CoH, half from her own wallet and half apparently from her eye doctors friends, giving her a sizable edge over Ball's $213K CoH. The winner will face off against incumbent Dem Rep. John Hall.

• NY-20: Thursday was the official Last Day of Tedisco. Assemblyman Jim Tedisco, the loser of this year's special election filed a notice of termination of his exploratory committee, seemingly ending any plans for a re-run in 2010.

• NY-23: Dinged by reports that the RNC wasn't getting adequately involved in the 23rd (or involved, period), Michael Steele announced that the RNC will be making an unspecified "six-figure" contribution to the NRCC in support of efforts in the 23rd, as well as $85K to the state party. Also seeking to quell reports of civil war, Newt Gingrich -- who passes for the GOP's voice of sanity these days -- went ahead and endorsed Dede Scozzafava, which may not move many votes on the ground but may move some Beltway dollars into her kitty.

• OH-16, 18: Biden alert (again)! The VP will be heading to Ohio to host a joint fundraiser for sorta-vulnerable Democratic Reps. John Boccieri and Zack Space in several weeks.

• SC-02: Rob Miller got a huge boost in his fundraising in the wake of "You lie!" and pulled in $1.7 million. Unfortunately, he seemed to peak early after an initial outpouring of support, with little follow-up with the netroots; contrast that with Rep. Joe Wilson, who continued to push his newfound celebrity with the GOP base and, despite being initially outraised, wound up the quarter with $2.7 million.

• NY-St. Sen: State Senator Hiram Monserrate was convicted yesterday of assault, but instead of the felony charge that was sought, he was only convicted of a misdemeanor -- which means that he isn't automatically out of the Senate. That means Dems are stuck with the coup-joining convict until next year's primary... unless he resigns, something that fellow Sen. Liz Krueger is already pushing, or is expelled.

• Mayors: In not much of a surprise, Shelby County mayor A.C. Wharton won the special election to take over as Memphis mayor. His 60% share (against 24 other opponents) is pretty impressive, though. Wharton argues his margin is a mandate for his pet project, uniting Memphis and Shelby County governments into one entity.

• Polling: Greenberg Quinlan Rosner has a fascinating polling memo titled "The Very Separate World of Conservative Republicans" out, based on focus groups of GOP base voters in Georgia that look at what's driving the accelerating freakout among the hard right. The diagnosis seems to be acute paranoia with persecution complex: while few couched their viewpoint in an explicitly racist way (which may surprise some), there is a sense among them of being a "mocked minority" and a overarching sense of an Obama administration "secret agenda" to bankrupt the country and exert government control over all aspects of our lives. I don't know if Ed Kilgore had advance knowledge of this study, but it dovetails exactly with his remarkable piece earlier this week focusing on how the roots of the screamers and teabaggers isn't so much overtly racist as motivated by a growing out-of-control sense of loss of the 'old ways' (i.e. replacement of small-town, homogeneous, traditional America with a multiracial, globalized future).

NY-20: Tedisco Gauging Support for a Rematch

by: James L.

Thu Aug 27, 2009 at 8:02 PM EDT

Republican James Tedisco said Thursday he has been meeting with county GOP chairmen in the 20th District to discuss a possible rematch next year against U.S. Rep. Scott Murphy, D-Glens Falls.

"I enjoy being a public servant and I'm looking at the atmosphere now," said Tedisco, a state Assemblyman from Glenville. "And it certainly has changed since when I ran for congressman in the short eight week election." [...]

Tedisco said in a telephone interview that he has been meeting with the 10 county chairmen to analyze mistakes his campaign made  in the special election and to discuss how the mood of the country may be changing.

"I think I've met or talked with all of them," he said.

Elizabeth Benjamin has a lot more; apparently, losing the open seat race and also getting booted, literally, to the back row of the GOP Assembly caucus has left Jimmy T nothing short of morose over the past several months. Eager to redeem himself, he's looking at a second chance against Murphy or a possible run for the state Senate if Republican Hugh Farley retires next year. If Tedisco passes, Benjamin also identifies John Faso, another former Assembly Minority Leader who lost to Eliot Spitzer in 2006, as a potential recruit.

If Republicans are going to nominate somebody with more grativas than a sack of potatoes, Scott Murphy couldn't complain too badly with the prospect of beating up on Tedisco again.

RaceTracker Wiki: NY-20

NRCC Puts 70 Dems on Notice

by: James L.

Mon Aug 03, 2009 at 10:42 PM EDT

That's a big fat, honkin' list of incumbents, including several that haven't seen a competitive race in years -- or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won't produce competitive contests, but there's absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice -- not only will the targets being painted on these members' backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing's for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin' Wu next year, we'll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger "legitimate", you ask? That's a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned -- whether it's through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn't mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he's coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It's just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as "legitimate" until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I'm being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, "legit" status.

So, many of these districts marked with an "N" have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There's no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year's over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these "unchallenged" districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this -- guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/30

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 2:50 PM EDT

The NRSC has launched a new robocall targeting Specter, by linking him to the NRSC's arch-enemy... George W. Bush? (It replays Bush's 2004 endorsement of then-GOPer Specter.) Apparently, the goal is to soften Specter up among the Dem electorate to lose a Democratic primary to a more reliable Dem, who would then be a little more vulnerable to Pat Toomey in the general... or something like that? This is one of those moments when you can't tell if the GOP is crazy like a fox, or just crazy.

Specter bringing his decades of seniority with him over to the Democratic caucus is angering some key Democrats who get bumped down the totem pole as a result, according to The Hill. Specter could find himself wielding the gavel in an Appropriations subcommittee, or even back in charge of Judiciary if Patrick Leahy takes over Appropriations in 2010.

Specter's switch has the whining flowing among some of the GOP's sourest senators: Jim Bunning says the GOP "coddled" Specter for too long, while Jim Inhofe shows his grasp of GOP dead-ender logic, saying that Specter's fleeing the party is a sign of conservatism's strength and presages a comeback. In much the same way that if my house is on fire, that indicates that its value is about to go up, because it's finally clearing out all that clutter.

• FL-Sen: The DSCC is pulling out all the stops against Charlie Crist, and he hasn't even taken any steps toward getting into the Senate race yet. They've launched a new TV spot (airing in the Tallahassee market) that attacks Crist for leaving Florida in financial disarray to jump to Washington, and attacks his heavy-on-socializing, light-on-work schedule.

• CO-Sen: The GOP's Weld County DA Ken Buck is trapped in the grey area between candidate and not-candidate for Senate; his website is up and running and has a "donate" button, but hasn't filed his official paperwork and denied Monday's reports that he was officially in.

• RI-Gov: Lincoln Chafee seems to be having similar problems on just how official a candidate he is, too. His exploratory committee is open and he said he "is" running when appearing on Rachel Maddow on Tuesday, but then issued a release yesterday walking that back, to "my intentions are" to run for governor.

• WI-Gov: The GOPers aren't waiting any longer for Gov. Jim Doyle to publicly announce his re-elections; Milwaukee Co. Scott Walker launched his campaign yesterday. Walker (who briefly ran in the primary in 2006) doesn't have the race to himself, though; last week, Mark Neumann, who represented WI-01 from 1994 to 1998 and then lost the 1998 senate race to Russ Feingold, announced his candidacy, touting his support from Tommy Thompson surrogate James Klauser.

• AL-Gov: Not one but two more Republicans are sizing up the governor's race, although neither one seems top-tier material: Hoover mayor (in the Birmingham suburbs) Tony Petelos, and Bill Johnson, the head of the Alabama Dept. of Economic and Community Affairs. (Johnson has a colorful backstory that wouldn't help him much in the primary.)

• OR-Gov: Local Republican pollster Moore Insight polled potential Dem candidates for governor on their favorables. Ex-gov. John Kitzhaber and Rep. Peter DeFazio posted pretty similar numbers: 49/21 for Kitz, 48/17 for the Faz. (Kitzhaber has higher negatives among Republicans, thanks to all those vetoes he handed out.) Former SoS Bill Bradbury is at 29/10, and Steve Novick, who barely lost the 2008 Senate primary, is at 14/4.

• GA-01: Long-time Rep. Jack Kingston has often been the subject of speculation in the Georgia governor's race, but he confirmed that he'll be running for re-election to the House. Interestingly, he's supporting state senator Eric Johnson in the race instead of fellow Rep. Nathan Deal, but that's because Johnson is a fellow Savannah resident and his son's godfather.

• VA-10: The subject of much retirement-related speculation due to age and a rapidly bluening seat (now R+2), Rep. Frank Wolf confirmed he'll be running for re-election in 2010. He may face state senator Mark Herring or delegate David Poisson.

• OH-18: Rep. Zack Space has been added to the DCCC's defense-oriented Frontline program. Space was the target of an NRCC TV spot earlier, but this isn't so much a question of newfound vulnerability as it's confirmation he's done flirting with a Senate run and committing to his House seat for 2010.

• CA-36: Suddenly embattled Rep. Jane Harman has hired Clinton-era fixer Lanny Davis to help her negotiate the legal and PR minefield she finds herself in, regarding the wiretap imbroglio. 2006 primary challenger Marcy Winograd is revving up her efforts, sensing Harman's weakness. Winograd, who earned 38% in 2006, has begun raising funds for another try.

• NY-20: Republican Jim Tedisco says that he is "not planning" on seeking a rematch against freshly-minted Democratic Rep. Scott Murphy, but refuses to explicitly rule out a run. (J)

• WA-08: One more tea leaf that Suzan DelBene may be left holding the bag in WA-08: State Rep. Ross Hunter, one of the first Dems to crack the GOP stranglehold on the Eastside and a potentially strong contender in WA-08, is running for King County Executive. The already-crowded Exec race is in Nov. 2009, not 2010, but indicates Hunter's interests lie locally, not in DC.

• Votes: The 17 Democrats who voted against the Obama budget are all familiar dissenters, and most of them are in difficult Republican-leaning districts: Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Foster, Griffith, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Taylor, and Teague.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/29

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 29, 2009 at 2:22 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: All of a sudden, the Pennsylvania GOP is beating a path to Jim Gerlach's door to get him to consider jumping over to the Senate race, now that they're stuck facing an Arlen Specter vs. Pat Toomey wipeout in the general election. (Gerlach has been associated with the open governor's race, but is still in the exploratory stage.) Gerlach says "Don't rule anything out." The rather moderate and Philly-burbs-based Gerlach might face the same weaknesses in a closed primary against Toomey that Specter did, though (although Gerlach hasn't been cultivating conservative ill-will for decades like Specter).

• OK-Gov: Stuart Rothenberg reports that ex-Rep. J.C. Watts is getting close to a decision on whether to run for the governor's seat in Oklahoma, and that he's likely to get in. This would pit him in a battle royale with retiring Rep. (and former Lt. Gov.) Mary Fallin for the GOP nod.

• CA-03: Here's some proof that there's a lot of blood in the water in the eight GOP-held House seats that Obama won in California: some pretty big sharks are sniffing out the races. Phil Angelides (the former treasurer, and loser of the 2006 governor's race) is reportedly "taking a serious look" at a run against Dan Lungren in the Dem-trending R+6 district in the Sacramento suburbs.

• OH-08: Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, widely known as an anti-immigration activist, may challenge House GOP leader John Boehner in a primary in this R+14 district. (D)

• CA-44: No surprise here, but Bill Hedrick, who held Rep. Ken Calvert to 51-49 in this R+6 Inland Empire seat last year, officially announced he's back for another try. The Corona/Norco School Board chair can't expect another under-the-radar surprise attack, but can expect a lot of DCCC help this time.

• RNC: Although he seems to have publicly escaped the NY-20 loss without calls for his head, the behind-the-scenes attempts to take down or at least circumvent Michael Steele continue. Some RNC members are proposing a new rule that would place new restrictions and oversight on Steele's power of the purse-strings. (Seems like they might get better results if they sought better restrictions and oversight on Steele's mouth instead.)

• Gay Marriage: I'm pleasantly surprised how fast gay marriage is gaining widespread acceptance and turning into a winning issue for us: a CBS/NYT poll finds 42% support nationwide for legalized gay marriage, with another 25% supporting civil unions and only 28% opposed to any legal recognition. 57% of those under age 40 support gay marriage.

• Census: Here's another example of how there's no such thing as a neutral and apolitical census: there's a debate raging over the issue of where to count persons who are in prison. While the Census Bureau currently plans to continue its policy in 2010 of counting prisoners where they reside (often in rural counties where a sizable percentage of the population is incarcerated), civil rights groups and even NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg support counting them at their last known address... which would mean more funds, and a redistricting advantage, for major cities.

• History: For the history fans among us, the Senate's website has profiles of all 20 previous Senate party-switchers. (Here's a chapter from US History I'd completely forgotten about: more than one-third of these switches were western-state senators in the 1890s during the free silver movement.)

NY-20: Tedisco Concedes

by: DavidNYC

Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 4:10 PM EDT

The NY-20 special election is now officially over, with Democrat Scott Murphy the winner.

GOP candidate Jim Tedisco, who trailed by 401 votes as of yesterday's vote count, has called Murphy to concede, according to Murphy spokesman Ryan Rudominer.

Congratulations, Representative-elect Murphy. An awesome win.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/24

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 24, 2009 at 3:18 PM EDT

• MN-Sen: Norm Coleman could take a few pointers from Jim Tedisco. The five justices of the Minnesota Supreme Court who'll hear the election contest (two justices who've been actively involved in the count recused themselves) announced that their expedited hearing isn't all that expedited: it'll happen on June 1, to give the parties adequate time to file briefs and replies. In the meantime, that gives Minnesotans more than one more month with just one senator.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: Just one day after his name was suddenly floated for GA-Gov, Rep. Lynn Westmoreland flushed that idea, saying he'll stay in the House.

• PA-Gov: Allegheny County Executive Dan Onorato was bandied about as the early front-runner for the Democratic nomination for the open governor's race in 2010, but we've heard nary a peep from him on the matter. Apparently, he is in fact interested, as he says he's "laying the groundwork" and expects a formal announcement later in the year.

• TN-Gov: Businessman Mike McWherter made official his candidacy for the Democratic nod in the open Tennessee governor's race. McWherter hasn't held elective office, but benefits strongly from links with his father, popular ex-governor Ned McWherter.

• SC-Gov: Lawyer Mullins McLeod (and apparent scion of a political family, although one that pales in comparison to the Thurmonds or Campbells) announced his bid for the Democratic nomination in the open governor's race. He joins two Democratic state senators Vincent Shaheen and Robert Ford in the chase.

• CA-10: Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who previously issued an internal poll showing her leading senator Mark DeSaulnier, has officially jumped into the special election field. With Lt. Gov. John Garamendi's entry into the race, splitting the white-guy vote, Buchanan probably feels that her hand has been strengthened.

• CO-03: Rep. John Salazar has drawn a solid Republican challenger in this R+5 district: Martin Beeson, who's the district attorney for Pitkin, Garfield, and Rio Blanco Counties. Blue Dog Salazar has had little trouble with re-election despite the district's lean.

• CA-36: Jane Harman's high-profile role in the still-unfolding wiretap scandal has liberal activists in the 36th, long frustrated by Harman's hold on this D+12 district, wondering if they finally have an opening to defeat her in a primary. Marcy Winograd, who won 38% against Harman in 2006, has been urged to run again and is "thinking about it."

• MI-07: For real? Republicans in DC (read: the NRCC) are telling MLive.com's Susan J. Demas that their top choice to take on frosh Dem Mark Schauer is none other than... ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz, who was ingloriously defeated in a 2006 primary by wingnut Tim Walberg. Schwarz, who went so far as to endorse Schauer over Walberg last fall, tells Demas that he's not interested in running again. (J)

• NH-02: Democratic New Hampshire State Rep. John DeJoie has formed an exploratory committee for the seat Paul Hodes is leaving open. (D)

• KS-04: Democrats have their first candidate in the open seat in the 4th: Robert Tillman, a retired court services officer, and former precinct committeeman and NAACP local board member. There's more firepower on the GOP side of the aisle in this now-R+14 district, including RNC member Mike Pompeo and state senator Dick Kelsey.

• Redistricting: Republican Ohio state senator John Husted (who will probably be the GOP's candidate for SoS in 2010) has introduced legislation that would totally change the way redistricting is done in Ohio. It would create a 7-member bipartisan commission that would draw both congressional and state district lines (removing congressional district authority from the legislature, and legislative district authority from the 5-member panel that Dems currently control). It remains to be seen, though, whether this proposal would make it past the Democratic governor and state house.

• Nostalgia: Yahoo is shutting down the venerable Geocities. What ever will former Louisiana senate candidate John Neeley Kennedy do? (D)

NY-20: Last Days of Tedisco

by: DavidNYC

Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 11:34 PM EDT

A finish line could be in sight in the race for the 20th Congressional District. With the numbers not looking good for Republican Jim Tedisco, sources tell Capital News 9 that Tedisco could concede to Democrat Scott Murphy as soon as Friday afternoon.

Let's only hope! I look forward to seeing Scott Murphy be officially declared the winner and joining the Democratic caucus in the House.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/23

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 23, 2009 at 2:08 PM EDT

The drip-drip of GOPers publicly throwing in the towel on NY-20 continues: today star strategist Mike Murphy cried uncle, as did former NRCC chair Tom Reynolds yesterday. Campaign Diaries has a thought-provoking piece on why the GOP continues to drag this out in the courts, even though they're in too deep a hole for "case by case" examination of the ballots to salvage the count for them: it may be to set precedent for future recounts, where picking off individual ballots may be targeted to their advantage.

• NY-Sen, NY-14: Rep. Carolyn Maloney has hired a statewide finance director, Lewis Cohen. Cohen denied that Maloney (who has been rumored to be interested in a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand) will be running for Senate, but his title of "statewide" is pretty telling, considering that Maloney currently represents a few square miles in Manhattan and Queens.

• PA-Sen: Only eight weeks before jumping into the Senate primary, Pat Toomey told Pennsylvania GOP chair Rob Gleason that he "didn't want to be a Senator" and "be number 100 and vote no on everything." Now this wouldn't exactly be the first time a politician has promised one thing and done another, but the Specter camp has begun beating Toomey over the head with his flip-flop.

• MO-Sen: Ex-treasurer Sarah Steelman is "moving in [the] direction" of entering the GOP senate primary, but is in no hurry to make a formal announcement as she gets her campaign's financial house in order first. (She's still paying off debts from her unsuccessful gubernatorial run last year.) This comes against a backdrop of increasing public discomfort by the party concerning Roy Blunt's candidacy, caused not only by his humdrum $542K fundraising quarter and his high burn rate, but also his lobbyist ties and long 'establishment' track record.

• GA-Gov, GA-03: With top candidates like Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle and Cobb Co. Commissioner Sam Olens bailing on the race, there's an opening for a top-tier candidate to leap into the GOP field for the Georgia governor's race. (SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Comm. John Oxendine are still in.) Could Rep. Lynn Westmoreland, who has occasionally expressed interest in this race, be the man? Westmoreland (perhaps best known for not being able to name the 10 commandments on the Colbert Report) is "seriously considering" it. Don't look for a pickup of his R+19 seat if it's open, though.

• AL-Gov: Republican treasurer Kay Ivey will be running for governor after all, according to party insiders. The perception was that her role in Alabama's floundering prepaid tuition plan may have wounded her too much to run for governor, but she's still going for it.

• CA-32: More endorsements as we approach the May 19 special election. Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu got the endorsement of Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa. (The district doesn't include any of LA, but obviously he's a big figure in the media market.) The United Farm Workers and the locals of the Southern California District Council of Laborers went for state senator Gil Cedillo.

• FL-08: Republican Orlando mayor Rich Crotty was looking like a major threat to just-elected Rep. Alan Grayson, but he's getting tarnished with some legal troubles that may preclude him from running. A grand jury accused him of pressuring vendors to contribute to his re-election campaign. There's still a deep Republican bench eyeing the race in this R+2 district, including state senate majority whip Andy Gardiner, ex-state senator Daniel Webster, and state rep. Steve Precourt. Grayson raised only $144K in the first quarter, but he may plan to self-finance, as he partially did in 2008.

• Demographics: Here's some interesting data from the Census Bureau: fewer people moved in 2007 (35.2 million) than any year since 1962 (when the nation had 120 million fewer people). This has its roots in the housing bubble pop, as people underwater in their houses are unlikelier to relocate for work. This may show up in a big way in 2012 reapportionment, though, as more people staying in place may save a few seats in the northeast or midwest and limit growth in the south or west.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/22

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 22, 2009 at 1:54 PM EDT

• CA-Gov: San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom made the official leap from exploring the California governor's race to being an officially announced candidate yesterday. He joins Lt. Gov. John Garamendi as the only formal candidates in the race, although Garamendi's campaign is on hold while he pursues the CA-10 special election.

• CA-Sen: The California GOP has lined up a "strong second choice" to challenge Barbara Boxer if ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina doesn't get in the race. African-American talk radio host Larry Elder, who was on Los Angeles's KABC for 15 years, is meeting with GOP officials, but still sidelined while waiting for Fiorina. (The pro-choice, pro-pot legalization Elder is very much from the libertarian wing of the party.) Assemblyman Chuck Devore is already officially a candidate, but the party seems unenthused about his odds.

• NC-Sen, NC-07: Dem Rep. Mike McIntyre says that his re-election to the House is his current "concentration", but when asked if he's considering a Senate bid, McIntyre told a local ABC affiliate that "you never say never to anything." A recent PPP poll had McIntyre trailing Richard Burr by only five points. (J)

• TN-09: Rep. Steve Cohen, as a white Jewish man representing a mostly African-American district, is going to always be vulnerable to primary challenges (as seen with last year's mudfest with Nikki Tinker). It looks like he'll be facing a serious test this year, as Memphis mayor Willie Herenton has formed an exploratory committee for the House race. Herenton is African-American and has been mayor since 1991, elected five times. On the other hand, there may be some Herenton fatigue going on in this district, as he is under federal investigation, was re-elected most recently with less than 50% of the vote, and announced his resignation in 2008 only to withdraw it shortly after.

• NY-20: You know it's over for Jim Tedisco when major Republicans are telling him to pack it in. Yesterday, ex-Rep. Tom Davis said it was over, and today, state senator Betty Little (who lost the special election nomination to Tedisco) and Dan Isaacs (who's running for state GOP chair) also called for the pulling of the plug. Isaacs is so upset that he's reduced to making up new words: "Tedisco appears not able to pull out a victory in an overwhelmingly Republican district; to me that's the final indignancy."

• MI-02: Roll Call takes a quick look at the race to replace retiring Rep. Pete Hoekstra. On the GOP side, former state rep. Bill Huizenga is the "biggest voice that's out there," but state senator Wayne Kuipers is poised to get in, as is former NFL player Jay Riemersma, who's well connected with the Christian right. (Notice a common thread in those names? This is the nation's most heavily Dutch-American district.) There are three Democratic state reps in the district, too, but none of them seem to be making a move yet.

• Michigan: An interesting white paper obtained from the Michigan GOP shows that they're quite pessimistic about getting back into power in 2010, despite the advantages they seem to be taking into next year's governor's race. Their suburban base has eroded since the 1990s, and their one-note message just isn't resonating with swing voters anymore.

• NRSC: Continuing our theme of unusually reality-based Republicans today, NRSC John Cornyn is sounding an increasingly cautious note about senate prospects in 2010, telling the Hill that it's "going to be real hard" to keep the Democrats from breaking 60 seats in 2010.

• NH-St. Sen.: Ex-Rep. Jeb Bradley, who lost twice to Rep. Carol Shea-Porter, has begun a new, more low-key chapter in his career, as a state senator. He easily won a special election, 61-39, over retired judge Bud Martin, to retain a GOP-held open seat. Dems continue to hold a 14-10 edge in the chamber.

John Sununu Sr. (the state GOP chair) didn't seem interested in spinning the victory as indication of a new GOP trend in New Hampshire, though. Always a charmer, Sununu's thoughts instead were:

He said Bradley's election actually helps [Gov. John] Lynch. Bradley could be counted on to sustain a Lynch veto of the gay marriage and transgender discrimination legislation, "if he (Lynch) finds the strength to veto that garbage," Sununu said.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/17

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 17, 2009 at 2:28 PM EDT

Jim Tedisco isn't waiting around for those ballots, though; he's already asking the courts to declare him the victor. Wait... what? Isn't he the one who's behind? (The Tedisco camp has tried to clarify that they were re-filing a motion that they filed on Election Day, to also have Tedisco declared the winner, as some sort of 'insurance policy.' OK, that makes me feel much better.)

• CA-10: BigDust broke the story yesterday in diaries: Lt. Gov. John Garamendi, seeing his gubernatorial campaign sputtering and lured by the siren call of a term-limits-free job, has more-or-less confirmed that the rumors are true and he's jumping into the 10th District special election, where state senator Mark DeSaulnier had already nailed down the 'establishment' candidate mantle. (Unlike other frequent job-hopper Tom McClintock, Garamendi actually has the advantage of living in the district.)

• KY-Sen, SD-Sen: The message can't get much clearer than this. Mitch McConnell is hosting a fundraiser in the state of Kentucky for his fellow senator... John Thune? That's right; McConnell would rather help a guy from South Dakota defending a safe seat than help his fellow Kentuckian Jim Bunning, who has already been complaining about how McConnell is sucking up all the fundraising oxygen in the state.

• CT-Sen: Chris Dodd may have raised a million bucks last quarter, but only five donors were from his home state of Connecticut. And before you can say "But what about donations below $200 which don't require detailed disclosure?", we'll just point out that Dodd took in under $2,300 total from that category of donors. Sigh. (D)

On the plus side for Dodd, he got a hearty endorsement and a promise of future help from someone a little more popular than him: Barack Obama. "Chris is going through a rough patch," says Obama.

• NH-Sen: Paul Hodes raised $225K this quarter, which doesn't seem like a whole lot, does it? (D)

• NJ-Gov: Governor Jon Corzine, facing a tough re-election, has another problem: his gross income last year was negative $2.75 million. You've got to assume that his overall net worth (once estimated at $300 million) has taken a much, much larger hit, so that calls into question his willingness, if not ability, to moneybomb the race as he did with his last two runs for office.

• TX-Gov: I never thought I'd have to say this out loud, but Governor Rick Perry may not have a winning issue on his hands when he makes veiled secession threats. A Rasmussen snap-poll finds that 75% of Texans would prefer to remain a part of the USA. 18% prefer secession, and 7% just aren't sure. Not coincidentally, a similar percentage of the Texas state senate (71%) just voted, 22-9, to ignore Perry and accept the $550 million in federal stimulus money to keep their state unemployment trust fund from going broke.

• Words: Here's a fun time-suck: a website that lets you create a word cloud for most-used words in a particular day, week, month, or year in the Congressional Record, or for a particular lawmaker.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/16

by: Crisitunity

Thu Apr 16, 2009 at 2:17 PM EDT

Apparently all Saratoga County votes are accounted for, except for 700 challenged ballots, which, thanks to yesterday's court ruling, will be counted. (While Saratoga County in general is Jim Tedisco's turf, the Tedisco camp's heavy use of challenges of student votes suggests that these votes may include a lot of votes from artsy Skidmore College in Saratoga Springs, which one would expect to lean Democratic.)

• CO-Sen: Finally, a GOPer commits to the Colorado senate race against appointee Michael Bennet. It's Aurora city councilor Ryan Frazier, who made his announcement while teabagging in Grand Junction. Frazier is 31 and African-American, so he brings an interesting backstory to the race, but it's unclear whether his strength among conservative activists can overcome his otherwise low profile in the GOP primary (assuming anyone else bothers to show up).

• FL-Sen: Quinnipiac takes another look at the Florida senate race; not much has changed since last time, although one noteworthy finding is that Floridians would prefer to see Charlie Crist remain as governor rather than jump to senate, by a 42-26 margin. That doesn't stop him from crushing in the senate primary (Crist beats Marco Rubio and Vern Buchanan 54-8-8). Buchanan leads a Crist-free primary, while on the Dem side, Kendrick Meek narrowly leads Pam Iorio (16-15, with 8 for Ron Klein, 5 from Dan Gelber, and a whole lotta undecideds).

• PA-Sen: John Peterson isn't a make-or-break endorsement, but the former GOP representative from rural PA-05 said that he won't support Arlen Specter's re-election bid in 2010. He stopped short of endorsing Pat Toomey (Peterson supported Specter in the 2004 primary), but said it was time for Specter to retire. In other completely unsurprising endorsement news, the Club for Growth (of which Pat Toomey was president until several days ago) today endorsed Toomey's bid. Laugh all you want, but Toomey will need all the financial help he can get; Specter hauled in $1.3 million in Q1 and is sitting on $6.7 million CoH.

• TX-Sen: Our friends at Burnt Orange Report have a nice graph showing Bill White and John Sharp dominating the fundraising chase so far in the hypothetical Texas senate race. (The chart doesn't include GOP heavyweights Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst and AG Greg Abbott, who haven't taken formal steps for the race, but whose cash stashes are state-specific, putting them back to fundraising square one if they ran for senate.)

• CT-Sen: If Chris Dodd is going to win again in 2010, it's going to be on the back of money, not popularity. Luckily, he still has lots of the former, as big-money donors aren't being scared off by his poll numbers: he raised $1 million in the first quarter, with $1.4 million CoH.

• MN-Sen (pdf): Minnesotans would like the madness to stop, and would like to have a 2nd senator. PPP finds that 63% think that Norm Coleman should concede right now, and 59% (including 54% of independents) think Tim Pawlenty should sign Al Franken's certificate of election right now. (This should give Pawlenty some pause as to whether or not to create further delay in the name of partisan politics, as he's about the only person left who can drag this out.)

• MO-Sen: Roy Blunt raised $542K in the first quarter, only about half of what Robin Carnahan raised. Our JeremiahTheMessiah came up with the best possible headline for this story:

Carnahan Smokes Blunt... In Fundraising

• GA-Gov: As reported in the diaries yesterday by fitchfan28, Lt. Gov. Casey Cagle dropped out of the gubernatorial race, citing health concerns. Cagle was more-or-less front-runner, and his departure leaves SoS Karen Handel and Insurance Commissioner John Oxendine to slug it out for the GOP.

• IL-10, PA-07: Two huge fundraising hauls (by House standards) from two candidates who may be looking to move up. Mark Kirk, who pulled in $696K in the first quarter, is supposed to decide soon whether or not to try for IL-Sen. (He has only $597K CoH, though, after burning through all his cash defending his seat in 2008. So he may just be raising hard in expectation of another top-tier challenge in 2010 in this blue district.)

Joe Sestak raised $550K in the first quarter, leaving him sitting on a mongo $3.3 million. Could this... plus his suddenly increased media presence, as he talks the defense budget and Don't Ask Don't Tell... be tea leaves that he may be the Dem who jumps into PA-Sen after all? (Sestak has previously declined, and he's always been mentioned as an afterthought in this race after Allyson Schwartz and Patrick Murphy. But neither of them have made any moves, leaving Joe Torsella the only Dem challenger so far.)

• Numbers: California's Secretary of State office finally released its Supplement to the Statement of Vote, heaven for nerds. Now you can look up Presidential and Prop 8 votes not just by congressional district, but by state senate or assembly district or even Board of Equalization district.

NY-20: Jimmy T. Bags 163 Votes but Still on Bottom

by: DavidNYC

Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 8:19 PM EDT

Meanwhile, Dem Scott Murphy just got a very favorable ruling from a judge overseeing the case:

Judge James Brands just ruled that most of the over 1,200 contested absentee ballots in the race to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in Congress were objected to improperly based on discrepancies in their applications. This means many more ballots will be counted.

Tedisco's team has been following the Norm Coleman playbook almost to the letter, challenging ridiculous numbers of absentee ballots (including, as you may know, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand's). Seeing as Murphy's attorneys argued in favor of counting many of these challenged ballots, this augurs well.

UPDATE: More discussion in BigDust's diary.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Apr 15, 2009 at 1:25 PM EDT

• NY-20 (pdf): The morning update on the NY-20 absentee count finds Scott Murphy padding his skimpy lead a bit, up to 168. There was a partial report of absentees from Warren County (one of the strongholds of the Murphy clan), and the expected report from Saratoga County (Tedisco country) didn't materialize, so this may be only a temporary surge. Democratic number crunchers, starting with Nate Silver, are sounding increasingly sanguine about the direction the absentee ballots are taking, though. Nate projects about a 500-vote margin for Murphy when all is said and done.

The Albany Project has been all over the sudden increase in ballot challenges by the Tedisco camp (who've moved to challenge second-home voters and student voters in the last few days). In the battle of perceptions, however, the GOP may have gone a fridge too far with their latest step, challenging the absentee ballot of NY-20's favorite resident, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. Gillibrand visited the Great Orange Satan and HuffPo to blog about her experience.

• MO-Sen: Polls have given SoS Robin Carnahan a commanding position in the open Missouri senate race, and now she has fundraising numbers to match, posting $1,048,000 in the first quarter.

• OH-Sen: There's one other SoS running for an open senate seat who didn't fare so well, though. Jennifer Brunner pulled in a surprisingly low $200,000. That may pick up once she gets the expected EMILY's List endorsement, but it leaves her lagging behind Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, who raised more than $1 million and is already wearing the mantle of 'establishment' Dem candidate.

• PA-Sen: Joe Torsella, who's never held elective office before but is well-connected in Philadelphia's corridors of power, reported a solid $584,000 in an abbreviated Q1 (only since mid-February).

• OK-Sen: Are you there, God? It's me, Tom Coburn. I can't decide whether or not to run for re-election. (He says he's not playing games; it's a "spiritual thing.") The Club for Growth, in their first act since Chris "Count" Chocola took over, endorsed Coburn today, though.

• TX-Gov: Kinky Friedman, who got 12% of the vote as an independent in the chaotic 2006 Texas governor's race, is doing it again, and this time he's running in the Democratic primary. It's unclear whether this will work to Friedman's advantage, since a lot of his support comes from Paulists, Naderites, and other assorted weirdos who may not be registered Democrats, and Tom Schieffer gives Dem voters a 'normal' option.

• FL-10: Bill Young is always on 'most likely' to retire lists, but the 78-year-old is giving a little more fodder for that mill with today's fundraising report. He raised only $7,100 in the first quarter, sitting on $412K CoH. (He only raised $15K in Q1 of 2007, though, and won easily in 2008.)

• MI-09: Joe Knollenberg won't be back for a rematch against Gary Peters, who unseated him in 2008, but his former chief of staff will. Paul Welday, who's also a former Oakland County GOP chair, will challenge him in 2010. Welday lost a race for the state house in 2008.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/14

by: Crisitunity

Tue Apr 14, 2009 at 4:49 PM EDT

• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter picked up an important backer in the 2010 primary: NRSC chair John Cornyn (who'd, of course, like to limit the number of seats lost on his watch). "As I survey the political landscape of the upcoming 2010 elections, it's clear we need more candidates that fit their states," said Cornyn. Although Cornyn doesn't mention his name, he obviously has in mind a guy who doesn't fit his state: Pat Toomey, who just happened to officially announce his long-rumored Senate bid yesterday.

• MN-Sen: No surprise here; Norm Coleman, having lost the election yesterday according to a three-judge panel, has filed an appeal with the Minnesota Supreme Court. Election law blogger Rick Hasen looks at yesterday's opinion and the difficulty Coleman will face in getting it reversed.

• FL-Sen: Marco Rubio reported raising $250,000 in the last month since opening his exploratory committee, a solid start. Meanwhile, Kendrick Meek continued to dominate the labor endorsement front, picking up the nod from the International Union of Painters and Allied Trades, AFL-CIO.

• IL-10: State senator Susan Garrett says she'll decide within the month whether or not to challenge Mark Kirk (sounding like she's trying to wait as long as possible to see if Kirk jumps into the senate race and leaves an open seat). Kirk has turned back a number of serious challenges in the 3rd-most Dem-leaning district still occupied by a Republican (won by Obama with 61% of the vote).

• NV-02: A credible Democratic challenger to Dean Heller has materialized. Douglas County school board president Cindy Trigg plans to announce her candidacy next week. This district, once a Republican stronghold, went for McCain by less than 100 votes.

• ID-01: Walt Minnick just got some fundraising help from an unexpected place. Former two-term GOP senator from Idaho Steve Symms is headlining Minnick's April 23 breakfast fundraiser.

• NRCC: Campaign Diaries has the full list of all 43 Dems targeted in the GOP's big radio-spot-and-robocall blitz.

• Where Are They Now?: Tom Feeney: just took a job with noted think-tank the Heritage Foundation, to focus on "community outreach." Bob Ney: just got the 1-3 pm slot on a conservative talk radio station in Moundsville, WV. Chris Chocola: just made it official, that he will be replacing Pat Toomey as head of the Club for Growth. Vito Fossella: just pled guilty to DWI and will serve four days in Alexandria city jail.

• Red Menace: Spencer Bachus (AL-06) just announced that he is holding in his hand a list of 17 socialists in Congress. We all know about Bernie Sanders; anyone care to hazard a guess who the other 16 are?

SSP Daily Digest: 4/13

by: Crisitunity

Mon Apr 13, 2009 at 2:46 PM EDT

Also, there's been some research into what happens in NY-20 ends in a true tie (and no, apparently "Thunderdome" is not involved after all). Under NY law, coin tosses are not allowed in state or federal races, so the governor has the choice of either holding another special election for which the candidates will need to be re-nominated (allowing Libertarian Eric Sundwall another shot at the ballot), or else postponing the whole matter until the general election in Nov. 2009.

• IL-Sen: Roland Burris is getting slammed even by his one-time supporters now. Rep. Danny Davis told Chicago Public Radio that Burris needs to "hurry up" and announce whether or not he's running for re-election in 2010. Davis's sudden hurry is personally motivated, though, as Davis also stated publicly for the first time that he's considering running for that senate seat himself. (It seems like he wouldn't want to do it with Burris in the primary, though, as that would split the African-American vote.)

• OH-Sen: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman may not have much name recognition or charisma, but he does have one advantage: lots of money. Today he reported raising $1.7 million in Q1, and is sitting on $3.1 million total. Lee Fisher, by contrast, announced last week that he raised $1.1 million, while Jennifer Brunner hasn't reported yet.

• NY-Sen: Here are some tea leaves that Rep. Carolyn McCarthy isn't going to be running against Kirsten Gillibrand in the senate primary: she raised $145,000 in the first quarter (for House re-election, but that could be transferred if she switched to the senate race), with $262,000 CoH. (Also-rumored challengers Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney have much bigger stashes; they haven't reported for Q1, but have $1.7 million and $1.1 million CoH, respectively.)

• DE-Sen: Along the same lines, it looks like Mike Castle isn't gearing up his fundraising machine toward a run for the open senate seat in Delaware in 2010. (On the other hand, he's raised enough that retirement doesn't seem in the offing.) Politico catches that he raised only $73,000 in Q1, with $841,000 CoH.

• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek got another big "get" in his so-far-successful quest to nail down all the building blocks to cornering the Democratic nomination. He got the endorsement of the national AFSCME today, one of the nation's largest unions.

• MN-Sen: Digging by Senate Guru and Down with Tyranny reveals that one of the Minnesota Supreme Court justices who'll be hearing Norm Coleman's whinings is Christopher Dietzen, who has donated thousands to Republican candidates, most significantly to Norm Coleman himself, creating a rather clear basis for recusal.

• AL-Gov: Former "Ten Commandments" judge Roy Moore, who lost the 2006 gubernatorial primary to Bob Riley, is looking for another try, now that it's an open seat. With a fractured-looking GOP field, it's possible Moore could sneak through the primary this time, which, given his polarizing nature, might actually give the Dem a small advantage in the general.

• NYC-Mayor: NYC mayor Michael Bloomberg solved the term limits problem, but he had one more problem to overcome: getting a ballot line from some party. To solve that dilemma, he's returned to his shallow Republican roots, remaining a registered independent but picking up the GOP ballot line by getting the endorsement of three of the boroughs' GOP chairs. In a display of 'post-partisanship' at its finest, he's reportedly also trying to secure the ballot line of the left-leaning Working Families Party.

• OH-17: In a move guaranteed to provoke a huge collective sigh of relief, Ohio senate minority leader Capri Cafaro said that she won't run for the open seat left behind by Rep. Tim Ryan, assuming he runs for Ohio Lt. Gov. in 2010. "I don't know if I can get as much accomplished on the federal level," she says.

• PA-04: Republicans seem to be coalescing around state representative (and minority whip) Mike Turzai as a challenger to Rep. Jason Altmire in this slowly-reddening district in Pittsburgh's suburbs. Turzai lost the 1998 election in the 4th to Ron Klink by a fairly wide margin. The 4th's most prominent GOPer, Lynn Swann, has already declined.

• AR-01: A likely GOP candidate has already surfaced to run against Marion Berry (no, not the DC mayor) in this rural district that had one of the most alarming rightward shifts over the decade. In the 'can't make this stuff up' department, businessman Eric Crawford already boasts wide name recognition from doing the radio farm report.

• IL-11: Real estate investor and big-money GOP donor Henry Meers Jr. has filed to take on freshman Rep. Debbie Halvorson in the 11th. However, some in the local GOP instead favor Iraq War vet and former McLean County board member Adam Kinzinger. (Kinzinger is from the rural part of the district, while Meers and Halvorson hail from Will County in the Chicago suburbs.)

• NRCC: The NRCC is going on the offense against 43 different House dems for "rubber stamping" Nancy Pelosi's "San Francisco-style budget" (and its socialistic promise of Rice-a-Roni in every pot). Oddly, they're singling out OH-18's Zack Space (certainly not one of our most vulnerable members) with a TV spot. Nine other Dems get radio spots, while robocalls target the rest (including other entrenched members like Charlie Melancon and Chet Edwards).

• Polltopia: Our friends at Public Policy Polling are once again letting readers decide which Senate race they'll poll next. The choices this time: Colorado, Connecticut, and Illinois. Go get your democracy on, and tell us which state you voted for (and why) in the comments. (J)

SSP Daily Digest: 4/10

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 10, 2009 at 11:49 AM EDT

* NY-20: The see-sawing continues: at the end of counting yesterday, the semi-official BoE tally had Scott Murphy up by 8 votes. The four counties that hadn't returned full results for paper ballots, though, were four of the pivotal ones: Saratoga (Tedisco's base), and Washington, Warren, and Essex (Murphy's base). The Albany Times-Union puts Murphy's lead at 34, including some additional numbers from Essex. The Hill, as of this hour, is reporting a 46 vote lead for Murphy as more absentees seem to start trickling in.

* SC-Gov: Rep. Gresham Barrett, one of the House's most forgettable members, posted surprisingly strong fundraising numbers in his quest to become South Carolina governor: $371,000 in the first quarter, with more than $1 million CoH. He faces a crowded field, most prominently AG Henry McMaster, who raised $287K.

* CA-32: Here's a strange twist in the CA-32 special election: another Chu has filed to run. Betty Tom Chu, a city councilor and former mayor in Monterey Park, jumped in as a Republican. (She used to be registered as a Democrat and holds nonpartisan office.) There are rumors of bad blood between the two Chus, but this may not necessarily be a dirty trick to sabotage Judy Chu. Although it's an all-in-one-field primary (where the top vote-getter from each party advances), Betty Chu will have an R next to her name, helping somewhat to differentiate her from Judy Chu. The real confusion may be in the general, which could therefore be Chu vs. Chu.

SSP Daily Digest: 4/6

by: Crisitunity

Mon Apr 06, 2009 at 2:33 PM EDT

On a mostly unrelated note, the guy who could still be representing NY-20, John Sweeney, just got arrested for DWI over the weekend... for the second time in 17 months. He's gotta learn to stay away from those frat parties.

• KY-Sen: Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo pulled in a respectable-sized fundraising haul in Q1: $420,000. This may well beat opponent Jim Bunning, who has publicly admitted that his fundraising has been "lousy."

• CT-Sen: The stink lines coming off Chris Dodd seem to be attracting even more challengers. Businessman Jack Orchulli, who got demolished by Dodd in 2004 (66-32), is suddenly looking for a rematch. He'll face a crowded primary, though, but unlike ex-Rep. Rob Simmons and state sen. Sam Caligiuri, Orchulli can draw on deep pockets to self-finance. (If ex-Ambassador Tom Foley decides to get in, he's also a potential self-financer.)

• IA-Gov, IA-Sen: A Des Moines register poll showed surprisingly low re-elect numbers for Gov. Chet Culver, who isn't facing a top-tier challenge (yet). Only 35% said they would definitely re-elect, while 28% would consider an alternative and 18% definitely would not. (Sen. Chuck Grassley, by contrast, can plan on another six years if he wants; he's already at 48% definitely re-elect.)

• AL-07: State representative Earl Hilliard Jr. announced he'll be running for the open seat being vacated by Artur Davis, who's running for Alabama governor. If the name sounds familiar, he's the son of ex-Rep. Earl Hilliard, who was defeated in a 2002 primary from the right by Davis. He'll have a name recognition advantage in a crowded field: attorney Terri Sewell is already running, and they may be joined by Jefferson Co. Commissioner Sheila Smoot, and state senators Rodger Smitherman, Bobby Singleton, and Hank Sanders. This is one of our best opportunities to replace a centrist with a progressive in a dark-blue district without primarying an incumbent.

• CA-32: A late entrant to the special election to replace Hilda Solis has an ace in the hole: she's a former aide to Solis. Benita Duran launched her campaign website today. With the entry of another prominent Latino candidate to split the field, this may help Board of Equalization chair Judy Chu at the expense of state senator Gil Cedillo. Or, on the other hand, with the entry of another woman to split the field, this may work to Cedillo's advantage.

• CO-04: Former State Senator and current Larimer County Commissioner Steve Johnson is said to be weighing a challenge to freshman Dem Betsy Markey. SSP's analysis shows that McCain barely won this district, 50-49, after a 17-point Bush win in 2004. (D)

• NY-19: After drawing a weak opponent in 2008, John Hall hopes he'll be Still the One for NY-19 voters in the face of a stronger challenge in 2010. State assemblyman Greg Ball has formed an exploratory committee. Obama won this district by only 3 points (same as in NY-20), but Ball is a bomb-throwing conservative who seems out of step with the district's Rockefeller Republican roots.

• OH-SoS: Ohio Dems have a strong candidate lined up to try and hold the crucial Secretary of State position, as current SoS Jennifer Brunner goes for the promotion to Senate: Franklin County Commissioner Marilyn Brown. She's likely to face GOP state senator (and former state house speaker) Jon Husted, who just announced his candidacy.

• DCCC: The DCCC is moving aggressively to target the 8 districts in California where Obama won but a GOP representative hangs on. A new study shows that GOP registration has dropped precipitously in these districts, so there may be something more significant going on in California suburbs than just a big one-time Obama downdraft.

Also on the DCCC front, the NY Times profiles Rep. Chris Murphy, a rising star who, with Debbie Wasserman Schultz, is heading the DCCC's Frontline program for defense of vulnerable incumbents (mostly freshmen).

SSP Daily Digest: 4/3

by: Crisitunity

Fri Apr 03, 2009 at 1:57 PM EDT

In other news, Tedisco stepped down from his role as minority leader in the Assembly today. (That shouldn't necessarily be seen as a sign of confidence in winning the election; he was facing a no-confidence vote from his caucus.)

• SD-Sen: The 2010 South Dakota senate race isn't looking very fruitful for Dems, even in the unlikely event we run a top-tier recruit. (If Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin goes for a promotion, at this point she seems more interested in governor.) R2K polls SD for Daily Kos and finds that John Thune runs ahead of both ex-Sen. Tom Daschle, 53-40, and Herseth Sandlin, 51-39. All three have pretty good favorables; South Dakotans just seem to prefer to keep Thune where he is.

• CT-Sen: In the wake of yesterday's terrible poll, a primary challenger to Chris Dodd has already popped out of the woodwork. Roger Pearson, the former First Selectman of Greenwich, has formed an exploratory committee. He seems little-known outside (or even inside) of Greenwich, but we'll have to see if he can catch an anti-Dodd wave.

• AL-Gov: Looks like the Democratic primary for Governor is about to get pretty crowded; state Sen. Roger Bedford is now openly mulling a run, and the inside chatter appears that the controversial but powerful northern Alabama legislator is pretty serious about a bid.

Meanwhile, ArturD2 is kvetching like a five year-old over the probable entry of Ag Comm'r Ron Sparks into the race. (J)

• NH-Sen: Despite entreaties from the NRSC, Judd Gregg says he won't seek re-election. Apparently, he wants to devote all his time to supporting the president's agenda in the Senate. (D)

• CO-Sen: Appointed senator Michael Bennet pulled in startling fundraising numbers for the 1st quarter, raising $1.37 million. Bennet is facing a paltry field of GOPers so far (with ex-Rep. Bob Beauprez their best bet), so this may actually serve more to cause former state house speaker Andrew Romanoff to think twice about a primary challenge.

• AK-Sen: With charges dropped against Ted Stevens, Alaska GOP chair Rudy Reudrich wants a do-over on last year's election. Gov. Sarah Palin also endorsed the idea, despite her taking an anti-Stevens stand in the closing weeks of the election. However, Rep. Don Young doesn't support the idea, saying Mark Begich "will be in the Senate and will do a good job." (In fact, Young has a totally different idea: Stevens should run for governor in 2010 against Palin.) Stevens' friends in the Senate also seemed resigned to the election being over.

• RI-Gov: Ex-Sen. Lincoln Chafee seemed to back off a bit from previous statements that he will be running for governor as an independent, saying that he will decide by May whether or not to run, once his current position (teaching at Brown) ends.

• Votes: Yesterday was the big vote in the House on the Obama budget. After a lot of public vacillation, even Joe Cao voted no, joining every other Republican. 20 Democrats voted no; it's a who's who of who's vulnerable (with a few entrenched Blue Dogs joining them): Barrow, Boren, Bright, Childers, Donnelly, Foster, Griffith, Kosmas, Kratovil, Kucinich, Markey, Marshall, Matheson, McIntyre, Minnick, Mitchell, Nye, Perriello, Taylor, and Teague. The only 'nay' votes in districts won by Obama were John Barrow (who's actually been fairly cooperative so far this session), Bill Foster (usually a good guy, but a deficit hawk), and Dennis Kucinich (who assumedly voted against the budget from the left for not containing enough magic ponies). In the Senate, a few hours later, Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson were the only defections.

• NASA: Here's a guy we're glad to see land on his feet: Nick Lampson, who used to represent NASA's Houston-area facilities in TX-22, is now on the short list of potential NASA Administrators. Even Pete Olson, the guy who defeated Lampson, is advocating for Lampson.