NRCC Puts 70 Dems on Notice

by: James L.

Mon Aug 03, 2009 at 10:42 PM EDT

That's a big fat, honkin' list of incumbents, including several that haven't seen a competitive race in years -- or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won't produce competitive contests, but there's absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice -- not only will the targets being painted on these members' backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing's for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin' Wu next year, we'll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger "legitimate", you ask? That's a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned -- whether it's through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn't mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he's coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It's just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as "legitimate" until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I'm being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, "legit" status.

So, many of these districts marked with an "N" have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There's no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year's over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these "unchallenged" districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this -- guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/19

by: Crisitunity

Fri Jun 19, 2009 at 2:12 PM EDT

• IL-Sen: Bad news for AG Lisa Madigan, whose list of demands for a Senate race include an Obama endorsement, a cleared field, and no brown M&Ms at the catering table: Barack Obama announced that he wouldn't be endorsing anyone in the Senate race. Good news for Roland Burris, on the other hand: a state prosecutor has decided that Burris won't face perjury charges over his vague statements to the state legislature about his appointment to the Senate by disgraced former governor Rod Blagojevich.

• KY-Sen: SoS Trey Grayson has decided to start fundraising like a madman in the coming weeks, scheduling eight more events before the end of the fundraising quarter in June. Grayson opened his exploratory committee on May 6, so he has had only half-a-quarter in which to try to top Jim Bunning.

• MN-Sen: The FEC released two draft opinions that, if enacted by the full commission, will prevent Norm Coleman from tapping his campaign funds for his legal defense fees associated with his FBI investigation. (This doesn't affect the costs of paying for the recount, which are paid in part by the Coleman Minnesota Recount Committee instead.)

• CA-Gov: Has anyone noticed that LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, who everyone assumes is running for Governor, hasn't taken any steps toward running for Governor? The folks at Calitics have noticed, and the fact that Villaraigosa (whose popularity in LA seems to be faltering) just took over the 2nd VP role for the US Conference of Mayors (which puts him on track to become the organization's president in 2011) is another tea leaf that he won't run. If he doesn't run, that just leaves an all-Bay Area clash between old (Jerry Brown) and new (Gavin Newsom) for the Dem nod.

• MN-Gov: GOP state Rep. Paul Kohls from Minneapolis's western exurbs has announced his candidacy for the Minnesota governor's race. He joins former GOP state Rep. Bill Haas as official candidates, but at least a dozen more people seem intent on entering the race.

• FL-15: Rep. Bill Posey got nothing but scorn when he aligned himself with the most tinfoil elements of the GOP in introducing his birther legislation, but he's just ratcheting up the crazy. Posey picked up four more co-sponsors (Culberson, Carter, Neugebauer, and Campbell). Also, while being interviewed on WorldNetDaily's radio show about the bill, Posey outright accused Barack Obama of hiding something and, for good measure, tried launching a feud with Rachel Maddow.

• NM-01: Jon Barela, a former vice-chair of the New Mexico GOP and former head of the Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce, officially announced his candidacy against Rep. Martin Heinrich. He did so with the endorsement of 2008 candidate Sheriff Darren White. While it's now a D+5 district, it's almost half Latino, so Barela could make some noise if he gets some traction in the Latino community.

• OH-08: Speaker Minority leader John Boehner got a break: his would-be primary challenger, iconoclastic Butler County Sheriff Richard Jones, has opted not to get in the race. This frees Boehner up to spend more of summer of 2010 fundraising for other House candidates, or at least working on his tan.

• VA-05: Very little has been happening in VA-05 while everyone waits to see whether ex-Rep. Virgil Goode will try to get his old job back from Rep. Tom Perriello in this GOP-leaning district in rural Virginia. One GOPer isn't waiting, though: Cordel Faulk is publicly considering the race. Faulk hasn't held office, but he has an interesting job; he's the spokesman for Charlottesville-based professor and pundit Larry Sabato.

• NY-St. Senate: With the New York State Senate collapsed into a 31-31 tie, turncoat Dem (and, for now, Senate president and thus acting Lt. Gov.) Pedro Espada Jr. has come up with a rather novel legal theory in the absence of any constitutional clarification: he gets two votes, one ordinary vote as Senator and one tie-breaker vote as LG. Of course, nobody else seems to think this, and other theories are popping up as to who might get a tie-breaking vote (Former LG and current Gov. David Paterson? Assembly speaker Sheldon Silver?) if the Senators can't figure out how to break the deadlock themselves. Meanwhile, a likely primary challenger to Espada has already popped up: Haile Rivera, an activist and ally of city councilor Eric Gioia who had previously been planning his own city council run this year.

SSP Daily Digest: 5/29

by: Crisitunity

Fri May 29, 2009 at 3:13 PM EDT

• NV-Sen: The Nevada GOP may be closer to landing a credible candidate to go against Harry Reid. State Senator Mark Amodei of Carson City (who's term-limited out in 2010) was unusually vocal on the senate floor in the session's closing weeks. When pressed in a recent interview, he said that if Rep. Dean Heller didn't run against Reid (which seems unlikely; Heller, if he moves up, is usually mentioned as a primary challenger to toxic Gov. Jim Gibbons), then he'd "consider" running.

• NY-Sen-B: Rep. Carolyn McCarthy endorsed Mayor-for-Life Michael Bloomberg for another term at the helm of New York City. As Daily Kos's Steve wisely points out, this may be an indicator she's not looking to run in the Dem primary; if she's going to do so, she'd have to run to Kirsten Gillibrand's left, but that would be a difficult case to make having just endorsed a Republican-turned-Independent for one of the state's biggest jobs.

• AL-Gov: State Treasurer Kay Ivey announced that she's joining the crowded field of GOP candidates for Governor (including college chancellor Bradley Byrne, who also announced this week, as the moderate option, and ex-judge Roy Moore as the nuclear option). Ivey, however, may suffer a bit from her role in the state's messed-up prepaid college tuition plan.

• IA-Gov: State Rep. Chris Rants has been traveling the state gauging support for a run at the GOP gubernatorial nomination. Rants, from Sioux City in the state's conservative west, served as majority leader and then speaker, but was replaced in leadership after the GOP lost the majority in 2006. Fellow Sioux City resident Bob Vander Plaats (the 2006 Lt. Gov. nominee) is expected to announce his candidacy soon as well.

• MN-Gov: Tim Pawlenty has deferred his decision on whether or not to run for re-election to a third term until later this summer. The decision may turn on who's more pissed at him after he decides whether or not to certify Al Franken -- the nationwide GOP base, or Minnesotans.

• OR-Gov: Former Gov. John Kitzhaber seems to be moving closer to a return to Salem, meeting with some of the state's insiders about steps toward a comeback. Ex-SoS Bill Bradbury, who's already in the running (and won't stand down if Kitzhaber gets in), confirms that Kitzhaber is "looking very seriously" at the race. Kitzhaber seems to be looking forward to a "do-over" now that there's a firmly Democratic legislature; he spent most of his two terms in the 90s playing defense against a GOP-held legislature.

• RI-Gov: Two of Rhode Island's key Democrats are taking steps to run for the open Governor's seat: AG Patrick Lynch and Lt. Gov. Elizabeth Roberts. Roberts is staffing up with top-tier campaign staff, while Lynch said that he has "every intention" of running for Governor during a radio interview. (Treasurer Frank Caprio is also mentioned as a likely candidate and is sitting on the most cash, but hasn't done anything visible yet.) A Brown Univ. poll just released tested their approvals; Lynch was at 47/39 and Caprio at 41/24, while Roberts was in worse shape at 22/36. (A poll from March is the only test of the Dem primary so far, with Caprio leading with 30%, compared with 17 for Lynch, 12 for Roberts, and 13 for Providence mayor David Cicilline, who won't be running.)

• FL-02: State Senate Minority Leader Al Lawson has been attempting to primary Rep. Allen Boyd from the left, but party power brokers are encouraging him to switch over to the race for state CFO, being vacated by Alex Sink. With Senate President Jeff Atwater already running for CFO for the GOP, this would pit the parties' two Senate leaders against each other.

• IN-05: In this R+17 district, the primary's where it's at, and there's a whole herd of Republicans chasing Rep. Dan Burton, perceived more as vulnerable more for his age and indifference than any ideological reason. State Rep. Mike Murphy just got into the race. He joins former state Rep. and former state party chair Luke Messer, John McGoff (who narrowly lost the 2006 primary against Burton), and Brose McVey (who ran against Julia Carson in IN-07 in 2002).

• NM-01: It's looking there'll be a contested GOP primary to see who gets flattened by freshman Rep. Martin Heinrich in this now D+5 district. Former state party vice-chair and former Albuquerque Hispano Chamber of Commerce president Jon Barela is about to form an exploratory committee. (Given this district's 45% Latino population, Barela may be a stronger candidate for the general than funeral home director Kevin Daniels.)

• PA-06: Here's a good tea leaf that Rep. Jim Gerlach is making behind-the-scenes notifications that he's indeed bailing on his rapidly-bluening district. State Rep. Curt Schroder from rural Chester County (not to be confused with Oregon's Kurt Schrader), always considered to be the next GOPer to have dibs on this seat, has organized a campaign committee. Dems have journalist Doug Pike running in this race, but someone with more firepower may jump in once Gerlach makes it official.

• PA-07: For a few hours there last night, it looked like we were facing real problems in PA-07, a D+3 seat with a good Republican bench that will open up if Rep. Joe Sestak follows through on his threatened primary challenge to Arlen Specter. Former E.D. Pa. US Attorney (and before that, Delaware County DA) Pat Meehan was reported to be mulling a switch from the Governor's race, where he's probably lagging AG Tom Corbett in the primary (no polls have been taken, so who knows?), over to PA-07, giving the GOP a top-tier recruit. However, Meehan acted quickly to tamp that down and reaffirm he's running for Gov. TPM points to another potential GOPer, Steven Welch, founder of local pharma company Mitos Technologies; on the Dem side, as most everyone here knows, state Rep. Bryan Lentz is heir apparent.

NM-01, NM-02: Heinrich, Teague Lead in Final ABQ Journal Polls

by: James L.

Sun Nov 02, 2008 at 5:32 PM EST

Martin Heinrich (D): 47 (43)
Darren White (R): 43 (41)
Undecided: 10 (16)
(MoE: ±5%)

The undecideds are breaking for Heinrich, and I'd expect that they will continue to do so on election day in this D+2.4 district. NRCC Chair Tom Cole may have promised Darren White the moon last fall, but his candidacy was a mistake.

And over in the 2nd District...

Research & Polling Inc for the Albuquerque Journal (10/28-30, likely voters):

Harry Teague (D): 45
Ed Tinsley (R): 41
Undecided: 14
(MoE: ±5%)

Lots of undecideds still on the table here, but it's pretty troubling for Republicans that Tinsley hasn't locked more of the vote down, especially with the news that Tinsley canceled his last week of broadcast television advertising. Harry Teague may just be on track for a narrow win here on Tuesday.

(Hat-tip: New Mexico FBIHOP)

NM-01, NV-03: NRCC Scaling Back Ad Buys

by: James L.

Thu Oct 09, 2008 at 5:16 PM EDT

The NRCC has scaled back advertising in Nevada's 3rd district and New Mexico's 1st district, and the campaign committee is going to have to make key decisions over the next few weeks about which candidates it will try to save and which it will allow to drown slowly.

The Martin Heinrich campaign has more details on the NRCC's retreat in NM-01:

Back in August, the NRCC reserved $731,690 in advertising on behalf of Darren White from October 14 to November 4th [NRCC to spend $731k on TV ads in 1st District Race, 8/27/08].  The NRCC has now slashed two weeks out of the three-week buy, cutting an estimated $500,000 in financial support from the White campaign.

You'll recall that White, the sheriff of Bernalillo County, was one of the NRCC's most-prized recruits earlier this cycle after Heather Wilson decided to run for Senate. It seems that the NRCC is feeling less and less confident about his abilities to retain this seat, and it also appears that Jon Porter may have to fend for himself. In a normal year with an adequately-funded NRCC, neither of these guys would have been abandoned, and both of them could have held on -- but this isn't a normal year by any means.

So far, the NRCC has been picking a limited set of targets: AL-02, MI-07, NJ-03, OH-01, OH-15, PA-03, and WI-08. They will undoubtedly add a few more districts to the heap and circle the wagon, but which ones will they be? The Missouri races? ID-01? WY-AL?

Poll Roundup

by: James L.

Tue Oct 07, 2008 at 8:34 PM EDT

• IN-Gov (Research 2000): Daniels 49 (47), Long Thompson 45 (46)

• NH-Gov (Saint Anselm College): Lynch 73, Kenney 7 (!)

• NH-01 (Saint Anselm College): Shea-Porter 42, Bradley 35

• NH-02 (Saint Anselm College): Hodes 35, Horn 18

• NJ-03 (Monmouth): Adler 41, Myers 44

• NM-Sen (Research & Polling): Udall 51, Pearce 36

• NM-01 (Research & Polling): Heinrich 43, White 41

• OK-Sen (TVPoll): Inhofe 53 (56), Rice 40 (37)

All yours.

NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 6

by: James L.

Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 12:27 PM EDT

Martin Heinrich (D): 48 (47)
Darren White (R): 42 (44)
(MoE: ±4.6%)

White and Heinrich have been exchanging blows in the press and in ads recently, and it appears that Heinrich is getting the upper hand. A SurveyUSA poll from a few weeks ago pegged the race at 51-46 for Heinrich, so these numbers look pretty trustworthy.

The full polling memo is available below the fold.

DCCC Throws Down $1.6 Million in 16 Districts

by: James L.

Wed Sep 24, 2008 at 8:30 PM EDT

This is on top of $1.4 million in media buys filed in 15 other districts yesterday. Tonight marks the first time that the DCCC has spent money on TV ads in LA-06, NJ-03, NM-02, NV-03, and WI-08.

For more details on these and other expenditures, please consult SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker.

DCCC Drops $1.75 Million on 15 Districts

by: James L.

Tue Sep 16, 2008 at 11:02 PM EDT

These are some of the first significant media buys that the DCCC has made this fall, including a whopping $500K dumped against Jeb Bradley in NH-01.

The NRCC is continuing to maintain radio silence, because they can't afford to match pace. I wonder if they'll do some serious deficit financing in order to stay afloat this year.

More details on these and other expenditures are available in SSP's Independent Expenditure Tracker. The DCCC has made some of these ads available to view online on their multimedia page.

NM-01: Heinrich Leads White by 5 in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Sep 03, 2008 at 1:18 AM EDT

Martin Heinrich (D): 51
Darren White (R): 46
(MoE: ±4.0%)

Nice. Those are some very swanky numbers for Heinrich. However, these ones are even swankier for Team Blue:

Barack Obama (D): 55
John McCain (R): 41

If Obama is doing that well in the 1st District (which Kerry won by only three points in 2004), that bodes very well for Obama's statewide efforts here. It's also an ominous sign for Sheriff Disco White -- he'll have to swim strongly upstream in order to win here if these numbers are accurate.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: Crosstabs are available here. Comparing this poll to SUSA's last poll in NM-01 (from November 2006), the D-R breakdown is basically unchanged, but this most recent poll is significantly older (46% under 50 vs. 59% under 50 in 2006) and less Hispanic (24% vs. 37%). So on its face, it doesn't seem like the sample was juked in Heinrich's favor -- if anything, the opposite.

NM-01: C4O Spotlights Martin Heinrich

by: atdleft

Mon Aug 25, 2008 at 3:22 PM EDT

As you all know by now, New Mexico will be critical to a Barack Obama victory this fall. However, what you may not know is that New Mexico will also be a critical battleground for us to strengthen our majority in Congress. Fortunately, we have Tom Udall running for the open Senate seat here. And even better, we also have Martin Heinrich running to turn blue a House seat that's been red for 40 years.

DCCC Spends $175K in Ten Districts

by: James L.

Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 7:16 PM EDT

• ID-01: $10,000 in support of Walt Minnick

• LA-06: $13,000 in support of Don Cazayoux

• MI-07: $38,000 in support of Mark Schauer

• MO-06: $24,500 in support of Kay Barnes

• NH-01: $17,000 in support of Carol Shea-Porter

• NM-01: $10,000 in support of Martin Heinrich

• NY-29: $6,500 in support of Eric Massa

• OH-15: $33,000 in support of Mary Jo Kilroy

• OH-16: $17,000 in support of John Boccieri

• PA-10: $7,000 in support of Chris Carney

Expect to see a lot more of this in the weeks and months to come.

Rep. Rahm Emanuel Visits All Three NM Districts

by: fbihop

Fri Aug 08, 2008 at 3:03 PM EDT

Click on photos for larger versions.  More available on my Flickr page, as always.

Democratic Caucus Chairman Rahm Emanuel of Illinois was in the state and saw a good chunk of it in a short period of time -- at least up and down I-25.  

I'm not quite sure where he met up with Second Congressional District candidate Harry Teague for a fundraiser, but Emanuel stopped by Gabriel's Restaurant north of Santa Fe for a fundraiser and quick talk with the press (which is to mean myself and Steve Terrell of the Santa Fe New Mexican).  

Emanuel spoke about the big year Democrats had in 2006 and how we won; it wasn't just the war.

MI-07, NM-01: Walberg, White Release Internal Polls

by: James L.

Mon Jul 28, 2008 at 4:50 PM EDT

Mark Schauer (D): 31
Tim Walberg (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±5.7%)

This isn't the first poll that shown Walberg with a sizable lead; an EPIC-MRA survey from earlier this year pegged the race at 51-40 for Walberg. While Walberg's lead may not be quite as exaggerated as it is in this internal poll, Schauer clearly has some work to do here. The same poll also found McCain leading Obama by 48-37 in the 7th CD, which may or may not be a bit suspect in a district that supported Bush by 51-46 and 54-45 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

Over in New Mexico's 1st CD, Republican Darren White has released an internal poll of his own, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies (7-22/23, likely voters, 10/8-9 in parens):

Martin Heinrich (D): 41 (33)
Darren White (R): 47 (51)
(MoE: ±4.4%)

White is touting this poll in order to refute a Heinrich internal poll from earlier this month that showed the Democrat leading by three points, but he's not publicizing the trend lines from the last internal poll he released in October of last year, which I've included above. Heinrich has closed the gap considerably, and has some room to grow: While White's name recognition is 78%, Heinrich is at 65%, indicating that he hasn't nearly reached his ceiling yet. This one will be a real battle.

SSP currently rates MI-07 as Lean Republican and NM-01 as a Tossup.

NM-01: Heinrich Leads White By Three in New Poll

by: James L.

Wed Jul 09, 2008 at 1:45 PM EDT

Martin Heinrich (D): 47
Darren White (R): 44
(MoE: ±4.4%)

As far as I'm aware, this is the first publicly-released poll of this race. Considering that White probably has higher name recognition as the sheriff of Bernalillo County, this isn't a bad starting point for Heinrich.

SSP currently rates this race as a Tossup.

UPDATE: I stand corrected! On the NRCC's website, they're still touting a Public Opinion Strategies poll from October that has White leading Heinrich by a whopping 18-points. So much for White being "untouchable".

GOOD Congressional challengers on FISA: The List

by: BruinKid

Thu Jun 26, 2008 at 9:16 AM EDT

First, let's start off with the current House and Senate members who voted against this bill.  They do deserve credit, as it's their jobs on the line.

Follow me below the fold to see the dozens of Democratic challengers who are standing up for the Constitution, and are against this FISA bill and retroactive immunity.

NM-SEN: Private GOP Poll Has Udall +31

by: RandySF

Wed Jun 18, 2008 at 6:33 PM EDT

New Mexico Results Open Thread

by: DavidNYC

Tue Jun 03, 2008 at 9:00 PM EDT

• NM-Sen (R)
• NM-01 (D & R)
• NM-02 (D & R)
• NM-03 (D)

Results: Associated Press

4:34AM: Pearce wins. Time for sleep. What a great evening.
3:42AM (James): 99% in, and Pearce still holds a 2300 vote lead. The AP still hasn't called it, but with 11 precincts outstanding, I see no way for Wilson to make up the difference.
3:05AM (James): Harry Teague pulls this one out of the fire with a 53-47 win according to the AP (95% reporting). Pearce has a 2350 vote lead over Wilson with 97% in.
2:14AM (James): 92% of the vote is in now in the 2nd CD, and Teague has expanded his lead to 53-47 (1800 votes).
2:13AM (James): 96% in, and Pearce is holding on to a 2400 vote lead over Wilson.
1:36AM (James): This could be bad news for Harry Teague. According to Heath Haussamen, results from Doña Ana County are being delayed due to problems with a rental truck.  The ballots won't be counted for "some time", according to local officials. Doña Ana is the home base of one Bill McCamley, who is a county commissioner there. As Samuel L. Jackson would say, hang on to yer butts.
12:53AM (James): Tinsley wins with 31%, according to the AP. In the Senate race, Pearce is holding on to his 52-48 lead with 91% reporting.
12:38AM (James): With 89% in, Pearcey is sitting at 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague is up by the same margin with 87% reporting.  And the AP has called NM-03 for Lujan.
12:35AM (James): The AP calls NM-01 for Martin Heinrich! I would expect a similar call for Ben Ray Lujan in the 3rd CD soon.
12:23AM: With 85% reporting, Pearce has moved back out to a 52-48 lead. It may not sound like much, but it is - Wilson would need 60% of the remaining votes to pull into a tie. That's almost 24% better than what she's been garnering all night. Meanwhile, in NM-02 (D), Bill McCamley also trails Harry Teague by 52-48, but faces an almost identical situation to Wilson's.
12:03AM (James): With 80% in, Pearce is still up 51-49.  COME ON, PEARCEY!  Teague is clinging to a 51-49 lead with 83% in.
11:48PM (James): With 71% in, Pearce is up by 51-49. In the 2nd CD, with 76% reporting, Teague is clinging to his 52-48 lead, while Tinsley enjoys a 10% lead on his closest competitor. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has surged ahead big-time: he now leads Wiviott by 41-28 with 85% in.
11:22PM (James): With 55% in, we're at 52-48 for Pearce. In the 2nd CD, Teague is also up by only 52-48.
11:07PM (James): With 44% in, Pearce is holding onto his 52-48 lead.  Heinrich is holding comfortably, but Teague only has a 53-47 lead over McCamley in 59% lead. Tinsley has some breathing room, and Wiviott has pulled to a 5% lead in the 3rd district with 60% in.
10:45PM (James): With 30% in, Pearce leads by 52-48. In the 2nd CD, Teague leads McCamley by 56-44 with 42% in. In the GOP primary, Tinsley has a slight lead. In the 3rd CD, Lujan has taken a 10% lead over Wiviott with 26% in.
10:31PM: With 17% in, Pearce has a 57-43 lead.
10:02PM (James): With 8% in, Wilson leads Pearce by 53-47. In the 2nd CD, Newman has taken a small lead over Tinsley and Dunn with 20% in, and Teague has a big lead in the Democratic race. In the 3rd CD, Wiviott leads by 2% over Lujan with 2% of precincts reporting.
9:50PM: Fifty minutes after polls have closed, and very few precincts have reported in. (Remember the problems NM had in tallying its presidential primary results?) Anyhow, with just a handful of votes in, Wilson leads Pearce 61-39. In the 1st CD, Heinrich has a sizable early lead over Vigil-Goron and Grisham. In the 2nd CD, Teague has a twenty-point lead over McCamley on our side, while there is a tight battle for first place between Tinsley and Dunn for the GOPers. Other results are either not in or too minimal to be worth relaying.

June Election Preview: Races Worth Watching

by: James L.

Fri May 30, 2008 at 10:00 AM EDT

June 3: This is going to be a big day.

• AL-02: With Rep. Terry Everett (R) retiring at the end this term, the GOP field is large and noisy to replace him. The players include: State Rep. Jay Love, state Rep. David Grimes, oral surgeon Craig Schmidtke, TV station executive David Woods, and state Sen. Harri Anne Smith. With such a crowded and well-funded field, a 7/15 runoff is all but inevitable. Watch for Smith and one of Love or Woods to advance to the next round.

  I'm hoping that Smith is the GOP victor here, if for no other reason than the fact that she's dumber than a sack of hammers.

  On the Democratic side, Montgomery Mayor Bobby Bright will face off with Alabama NOW President Cheryl Sabel and dentist Cendie Crawley. Bright's campaign has been slow to get started, whereas Sabel has won a number of endorsements. Still, Bright should probably be okay based on name recognition.

• AL-05: Another open seat here, this one left behind by retiring Democratic Rep. Bud Cramer. State Sen. Parker Griffith of Huntsville is the Democratic front-runner and won't have any problems in his primary.

  Republicans will decide between insurance executive and '94/'96 candidate Wayne Parker, businesswoman Cheryl Baswell Guthrie, former state Rep. Angelo Mancuso (a turncoat Democrat), '06 candidate Ray McKee, and a number of also-rans. Parker is thought to be the favorite, but Guthrie has invested a significant amount of her own resources on the race.

• CA-04: This one should be interesting. With John Doolittle being put out to pasture, Republicans will choose between conservative icon Tom McClintock, a state Senator from southern California, and former Rep. Doug Ose. This has been a bloody and expensive primary, but the winner will still have a big advantage over Democrat Charlie Brown in this R+10.9 district.


• IA-03: Democrats will go to the polls to decide the fate of longtime Rep. Leonard Boswell, who is receiving a primary challenge from former state Rep. Ed Fallon. In a low-turnout affair, anything could happen, but keep in mind that the lone public poll of this race -- from Research 2000 in late April -- showed Boswell ahead by a wide margin.


• NJ-Sen: A big event. Not content to "wait his turn", Rep. Rob Andrews is waging a rough primary challenge against Sen. Frank Lautenberg (D). A recent Rasmussen poll gave Lautenberg a 30-point lead here.

  Republicans will choose between ex-Rep. Dick Zimmer, crypto-fascist state Sen. Joseph Pennacchio, and college professor Murray Sabrin, a Ron Paul acolyte.



• NJ-03: Republicans were initially very high on Chris Myers, a Lockheed Martin VP, to replace retiring GOP Rep. Jim Saxton in this South Jersey distrct. However, Myers' primary against Ocean County Freeholder Jack Kelly has descended into a squabbling mess, and neither candidate has been able to match the fundraising juggernaut of the Democratic candidate, state Sen. John Adler. I'm rooting for Kelly to win here, but I like Adler's chances against either Republican.


• NJ-07: The GOP primary to replace retiring Rep. Mike Ferguson appears to be up in the air between state Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance and Kate Whitman, the daughter of former Gov. Christine Todd Whitman. It's unclear to me which candidate would be stronger in the general election. Ex-Summit Councilwoman Kelly Hatfield and Scotch Plains Mayor Marty Marks will also have their names on the ballot.

  State Assemblywoman Linda Stender will be carrying the Democratic banner once again in this tossup district.



• NM-Sen: This open seat race has caused a domino effect all over New Mexico politics, with all three of the state's House members throwing their hats in the ring.

  Republicans will decide between Reps. Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce. Because of Pearce's more conservative profile, he would probably be the easier candidate for Democrat Tom Udall to beat in November. Still, the most recent polls show Udall crushing either Republican, so the outcome of the GOP primary may not matter a whole lot for Tom Udall's chances this November.



• NM-01: With Heather Wilson out of the picture, Democrats are hopeful that they can finally put this D+2.4 district in the bag. The choices: Albuquerque City Councilor Martin Heinrich, former state Health Secretary Michelle Lujan Grisham and former New Mexico Secretary of State Rebecca Vigil-Giron. A a recent poll gave Heinrich a slight lead over Vigil-Giron, but Lujan Grisham has raised and spent a respectable amount.

  Republicans will choose between Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White and state Sen. Joseph Carraro. White, a rare strong recruit by the mostly hapless NRCC, is the overwhelming favorite for his party's nomination.



• NM-02: I'll be relieved when the roster of players vying for Steve Pearce's open seat is cut to two. On the Democratic side of the playing field, voters in this district will choose between Dona Ana County Commissioner Bill McCamley and former Lea County Commissioner Harry Teague. McCamley is an impressive orator and campaigner, but Teague, a wealthy oil man, has drawn on his personal wealth to give his campaign a big financial edge here. The buzz I've heard is that Teague is well-placed to win the nomination, a fact that seems to be confirmed by Bill Richardson's recent endorsement of Teague.

  For what it's worth, Roll Call quoted an anonymous New Mexico GOP strategist who believes that a Teague victory in this R+5.7 seat is "likely" in November -- as long as he makes it out of the primary. I take such things with a heavy grain of salt, though.

  The Republicans have a football team-sized field here, including Hobbs Mayor Monty Newman, restaurateur and '02 candidate Ed Tinsley, retired banker Aubrey Dunn Jr. (a former Democrat), local GOP Chairman C. Earl Greer, and businessman Greg Sowards. Tinsley was regarded as the early front-runner, but the National Association of Realtors PAC has dumped around $1 million in support of Newman, and Dunn has also spent over half a million of his own money on the race. With no public polling, the outcome of this one could be anyone's guess.

• NM-03: The race to replace Tom Udall in the House is a two-way affair between Public Regulation Commissioner Ben Ray Luján and wealthy home developer Don Wiviott. Wiviott (and other third-string candidates) have been going hard negative on Luján, who appears to have the edge here. Indeed, a recent poll showed Luján with a six-point lead over Wiviott, and Richardson gave him his stamp of approval earlier this week.

  I don't know or care who the sacrificial GOP lamb is in this D+5.5 district.

• ME-01: With Tom Allen hoping to graduate to the Senate, a posse of Dems are vying to replace him, including: Former Common Cause President Chellie Pingree, York County District Attorney Mark Lawrence, former state Senate Majority Leader Michael Brennan, Iraq War vet Adam Cote, and state Sen. Ethan Strimling. Who is the strongest pick here? It beats me. Cote seems to be the most conservative choice, and could sneak in if progressive votes are divided.

  Republicans will pick between former state Sen. Charlie Summers and businessman Dean Scontras, but the Democratic nominee will be heavily favored in the general election in this D+6.2 district.

• SC-02: This is a bit of an oddball race. At a PVI of R+8.9, it's certainly not on many prognosticators' radar screens. However, Democrat Rob Miller, an Iraq vet who entered this race in March, has raised $200K and loaned himself another $100K, according to the latest FEC filings. That's an extremely respectable amount for a Democrat in a red district like this one.

  Miller will face off against retired Air Force officer Blaine Lotz.

• VA-11: A big one. With Tom Davis out of the picture, Democrats are finally making a play for this Dem-trending district. But first, the primary: Fairfax County Chairman Gerry Connolly vs. ex-Rep./ex-state Sen./'05 Lt. Gov. candidate Leslie Byrne. Depending on who you talk to, this race is either neck-and-neck or will go decisively to Connolly.

  The winner will take on Republican Keith Fimian, a political neophyte, but an impressive fundraiser.

• MD-04: Grab your popcorn, it's time for another edge of your seat special election! Oh wait; Donna Edwards is going to win by 50 points.

• UT-03: A recent poll shows GOP Rep. Chris Cannon leading former gubernatorial aide Jason Chaffetz by only two points. Cannon has had his share of close calls in the past, but it's unclear whether we'll actually get to do the wingnut shuffle in Utah this year.

NM-01, NM-03: Heinrich, Lujan Lead in New Primary Polls

by: James L.

Sun May 25, 2008 at 2:52 PM EDT

NM-01:

Martin Heinrich (D): 34
Rebecca Vigil-Giron (D): 23
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D): 10
Robert Pidcock (D): 4
Undecided: 29
(MoE: ±5)

The big news here is Vigil-Giron's second place showing. Most had assumed that Heinrich's more immediate competition would have been Lujan Grisham, as she has far outpaced Vigil-Giron in fundraising. However, Vigil-Giron is a former New Mexico Secretary of State, and her name recognition clearly is counting for something, despite her next-to-nil funding.

NM-03:

Ben Ray Lujan (D): 29
Don Wiviott (D): 23
Undecided: 33
(MoE: ±4.5)

There are a few other names in this contest (including the despicable Benny Shendo, Jr.), but apparently Lujan and Wiviott's numbers were the only ones worth writing about.

Primary: June 3rd

(Hat-tip: New Mexico FBIHOP)