The Northeast (Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Rhode Island & Vermont) has been sharply trending towards the Democratic party for some years now. Increasingly at a State and Federal level Republicans are finding it harder to get elected in the Northeast, be they conservatives or moderates, particularly in statewide races. And this years election seems certain to thin out their ranks even further.
We now have 7/9 Governors, 14/18 Senators and 51/65 House Districts!
Below the line for a look at the 14 GOP held House Races in the Northeast in 2008.
NJ-02: Democrats have finally bagged a challenger to take on entrenched GOP Rep. Frank LoBiondo: Cape May City Councilor and businessman David Kurkowski. Local Dems cited Kurkowski's ability to fundraise in their endorsement of his candidacy.
While dislodging LoBiondo would be a tough task, we should be able to count on Kurkowski to hold the incumbent's feet to the fire in this D+4 district. Kurkowski has pledged to wage a "vigorous campaign" that will tie LoBiondo to George Bush and his support for the war in Iraq. If we're lucky, an aggressive campaign by Kurkowski could help split Republican resources in a state where the GOP will already be defending two open seats, and quite possibly the seat of ultra-conservative Rep. Scott Garrett in NJ-05. (H/T: Blue Jersey)
MS-01: GOP primary run-off loser and former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough issued a non-endorsement endorsement of the Republican nominee, Southaven Mayor Greg Davis:
He also urged fellow Republicans to "unite behind all three of our nominees in North Mississippi - Senator Cochran, Senator Wicker and Mayor Davis. We have come too far as a state to turn back now."
But McCullough spokesman Brad Davis said the statement was "absolutely not" a personal endorsement of the runoff winner.
When asked if it was a show of support for the party and not the person, Brad Davis said, "That's a good way to put it."
Davis will face off with Democrat Travis Childers in an April 22nd special election. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, there will be a May 13th runoff. (Meaning that, to fill the open seat of Roger Wicker, voters in MS-01 might be going to the polls four times to determine the winner.) Regional rivalry may play a role here -- Davis is from the fast-growing DeSoto County, a suburban area near Memphis, while Childers hails from the more rural Prentiss County. If Childers can consolidate the non-DeSoto vote and keep Democratic enthusiasm high, this race could be a surprise worth watching.
LA-06: Democrat Don Cazayoux just picked up another endorsement in the special election to replace retiring GOP Rep. Richard Baker -- this time from the National Rifle Association (from the House Race Hotline):
The NRA on 4/3 endorsed Cazayoux. The NRA gave Cazayoux an "A" and urged all members, gun owners and sportsmen to vote for Cazayoux. Cazayoux: "I'm proud to have the endorsement of NRA and the million of gun owners and sportsmen they represent across the country and here in Louisiana. We've passed important legislation in Louisiana over the last few years to protect the rights of gun owners, and I will continue that work in Congress to ensure our 2nd amendment rights are protected".
Runoff: 4/5; Special election: 5/3.
NJ-Sen: Full results from a poll conducted by Joel Benenson for the DSCC (4/1-2, likely Democratic primary voters):
Frank Lautenberg (D-inc): 52%
Rob Andrews (D): 21%
Juan Melli offers some more insights over at Blue Jersey.
NY-26: Too much of a good thing? Two wealthy candidates vying for the seat of retiring GOP Rep. Tom Reynolds are pledging to spend $1 million each on their campaigns.
Earlier in the cycle, Democrats had hoped to target three House Republican incumbents in New Jersey: NJ-07's Mike Ferguson, NJ-03's Jim Saxton, and NJ-02's Frank LoBiondo. With the retirements of Ferguson and Saxton, Democrats have a solid shot of picking up both seats with the candidacies of Linda Stender and John Adler. For a while, it looked possible that state Senator Jeff Van Drew would round out the trio by challenging the entrenched LoBiondo in his D+4 district. Alas, that wasn't meant to be:
State Sen. Jeff Van Drew won't challenge incumbent Frank LoBiondo for a congressional seat in November, Van Drew said this afternoon.
Van Drew was elected to the Senate in November after serving three terms in the state Assembly. [...]
"We are approaching the most complex and challenging budget in the state's history and for that reason, I'm going to stay where I am for now, although I will clearly say I look forward to the day when I will run for the United States Congress," Van Drew said in a telephone interview this afternoon.
Van Drew said it's possible he could challenge LoBiondo in 2010.
This is the safer move for Van Drew -- fresh from beating an incumbent GOP state Senator last November, another bid against an incumbent so soon after his last race might have rubbed some voters the wrong way. However, it does look promising that Van Drew will be willing to make a real race of this seat in 2010. I look forward to his candidacy.
Meanwhile, the promising campaign of Rabbi Dennis Shulman against NJ-05's ultra-conservative Scott Garrett leaves me hopeful that we could see three pick-up opportunities in the Garden State, after all.
National Democrats have exactly three targets in New Jersey that they would like to seriously contest: Mike Ferguson (7th District), Jim Saxton (3rd District), and Frank LoBiondo (2nd District). In two of those three races, the DCCC has their preferred candidates: state Rep. Linda Stender is in for a rematch against Ferguson, and state Sen. Jim Adler is taking on Saxton. If state Assemblyman Jeff Van Drew entered the race against Republican incumbent Frank LoBiondo, he would complete the trifecta. The only problem? Van Drew is currently locked in a tooth-and-nail campaign against Republican state Sen. Nicholas Asselta, and he has to win that race first before thinking of another promotion.
Van Drew didn't do much to quiet the speculation today, as he played it coy on the question of a potential 2008 congressional campaign:
"What I've made clear is there's only one thing on my mind now, and that is winning the State Senate seat in the first legislative district," said Van Drew. "I have a lot of my plate and that's all I'm thinking about. And that's all I'm going to comment."
That non-committal response is in stark contrast to his campaign's official line last month:
"He's not running for Congress. He's got way too much on his plate right now," said Allison Murphy, who is managing Van Drew's campaign to oust Asselta. "I can safely say he's not running next year, but maybe sometime soon."
LoBiondo would be a tough foe to beat. His campaign coffers are flush with over $1.5 million on hand and he has always dominated his district by wide margins. Not in his favor, however, is the following fact about his district: its PVI is D+4. While Kerry actually lost the district by one point in 2004, Gore carried it by a healthy 11 point margin in 2000. Rather than changing demographics, we saw a 9/11 bounce for Bush that was pronounced throughout New Jersey. And, if the Republican presidential nominee is anyone other than Rudy Giuliani, I expect those top-of-the-ticket numbers to return to their 2000 level. If Democrats and progressives hope to expand their caucus, this is exactly the kind of seat they should be targeting.
We'll just have to wait and see if Van Drew can win his state Senate race this fall before we know who LoBiondo will line up against.
