• CO-Sen: The NRSC got its sort-of-top-tier challenger to Michael Bennet in the Colorado Senate race: former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton filed to form an exploratory committee and launched her campaign website, suggesting that the exploratory period will be a brief one. Norton's never been elected on her own (just while joined to popular Gov. Bill Owens), but, unlike the rest of the GOP field, she's at least known statewide.
• CT-Sen, AR-Sen: Chris Dodd finally made his decision about which Senate committee to chair, and he opted to return to Banking, instead of continuing at HELP where he shepherded through health care reform legislation in Ted Kennedy's absence. He still has a lot on his plate; he'll be focusing on bolstering financial services regulations and creating a new banking consumer protection agency (all stuff that would seem less likely to happen if Tim Johnson took over Banking). The WaPo says that all signs point to Tom Harkin of Iowa, #2 on HELP, ditching his coveted Agriculture chair to take over HELP. This means the Agriculture chair is likely to fall to Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas (bypassing a few other more senior Senators with better chairs), who, while not from a big farm state, is facing a difficult re-election and will benefit from the profile and money that come from a chair.
• LA-Sen: The Charlie Melancon campaign released an internal poll taken by Anzalone Liszt that's getting a little stale (taken in mid-May, long before Melancon announced), but that shows Melancon in striking distance. The head-to-head has David Vitter beating Melancon 47-37 (and Melancon winning the bogus "after hearing positive info" vote 49-41). The good news is that Vitter's re-elect number is down to 39%, with 45% preferring someone new. Melancon has 35/13 favorables.
• TX-Sen: Republican Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst sent a letter to supporters that he's running for re-election in 2010. While he may be the initial odds-on favorite to replace Kay Bailey Hutchison in the Senate, I wouldn't take this to mean he's not running in the Senate special election -- since he doesn't need to give up his seat to run and he'd probably like to keep being Lt. Gov. if he loses the election, and there's also still a possibility that KBH doesn't resign after all, if she senses the gubernatorial primary heading south on her. (H/t DTM,B!)
• AK-Gov: No surprise here, but Democratic former state House minority leader and 2008 House candidate Ethan Berkowitz filed his candidacy papers today. He'll likely face off against Sean Parnell, who inherited the office after Sarah Palin's re$ignation, but first he'll need to survive a primary against state Sen. Hollis French and Bob Poe. (Parnell will also need to survive a primary against state Rep. John Harris.)
• MA-Gov: Tim Cahill picked a strange day to make his announcement, on a day when everyone is fixated on the Massachusetts Senate race instead, but today he made official what has long been suspected: he's running for Governor. The Dem-turned-Independent state Treasurer has a $3 million warchest, giving him a big edge over incumbent Dem Deval Patrick, who has $464K (of course, if Christy Mihos wins the GOP primary, he can put all his expenses on his own tab). Polls that have included Cahill have shown him running neck-and-neck with Patrick, although Cahill is running against tradition -- there has apparently never been an Independent elected to statewide office in Massachusetts.
• MN-Gov: I've completely lost track of how many people are now running for Minnesota Governor -- let's just say it's a number somewhere between 10 and 800 -- but one more guy got in the race on Labor Day: state Rep. Tom Rukavina, for the DFL. Rukavina is from the town of Virginia in the rural but very pro-union Iron Range.
• OR-Gov: While the Dem side of the Oregon Governor's race is narrowing, the GOP side keeps growing: former state Senator John Lim from Portland's eastern suburbs said he'd get in. Lim is best-known for losing the 1998 Senate race to Ron Wyden (with a whopping 34% of the vote).
• SC-Gov: While it's unclear whether "calls for resignation" on Mark Sanford's part will ever turn into a tangible move for impeachment or just some pre-emptive ass-covering by state Republicans so it looked like they tried, those calls are getting louder. The state's House Speaker, Bobby Harrell, made the call yesterday, and now there's talk of a letter with the signatures of at least 60 House GOPers (out of 72, and almost half the entire House) calling on Sanford to step down.
• VT-Gov: As we reported yesterday, Vermont Auditor Tom Salmon did in fact follow through on his decision to switch to from the Democrats to the Republican Party. However, Salmon sounds likely to run again for Auditor, saying there's a "10% chance" he'll run for Governor instead. Salmon said that he'd support Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie if Dubie were to run for Governor, and wouldn't challenge him in a primary. There's been no word from Dubie, though, on what he plans to do.
• FL-08: Rep. Alan Grayson... well, let me try to be kind here and say that he courageously ignores all that conventional wisdom about who and who not to piss off. He's picking a fight with his hometown paper, the Orlando Sentinel, referring to them in a fundraising e-mail as "a trashy tabloid that dresses up bias and gossip as news."
• FL-24: Former Notre Dame football coach Lou Holtz may have decided against a run in his current home district, the 24th, but he's holding a fundraiser on behalf of Winter Park city councilor Karen Diebel, one of the three GOPers seeking the nod to go against Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in this R+4 district.
• IL-10: Bob Dold is running for the GOP nomination in the 10th District, joining state Rep. Beth Coulson and rich guys Dick Green and Bill Cadigan. Bob Dold is a lawyer who also owns a pest control business. In keeping with district's lean, Bob Dold says that Bob Dold is fiscally conservative and socially moderate.
• NE-02: Jim Esch, who's coming off two back-to-back losses to GOP Rep. Lee Terry, switched his party affiliation to "independent" last week, but said yesterday that he has no plans to seek elected office at any level in the future. Esch defended his decision to the Omaha World-Herald: "I feel a little hypocritical when I go to Democratic parties and say, 'I'm a Democrat' when I don't believe in the party." (J)
Meanwhile, across town, state Sen. Tom White (who's apparently still a Democrat) officially launched his campaign against Terry today.
• PA-03: Suddenly there's a backlog of challengers to Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, the Dem freshman in this R+3 district. Republican Meadville businessman Paul Huber, who ran a heating equipment company and served on a local medical center board, filed campaign paperwork. AG's office investigator Elaine Surma is already in the race for the GOP, and former Erie County Solicitor John Onorato sounds likely to run.
• PA-06: Here's a likely minor, but certainly interesting, challenge to Doug Pike (who seems to have the establishment support locked down) in the Democratic primary in the open seat race in the 6th. Manan Trivedi is a Reading native born to Indian immigrants; he is an Iraq vet and a primary care physician. He formally announced his campaign yesterday.
• Redistricting: Indiana Secretary of State Todd Rokita has gone off the deep end in anticipation of the next round of redistricting in Indiana: he wants to make it a felony to consider politics in the redistricting process. Um... considering that Rokita is a Republican and that Republicans are likely to control the redistricting process post-2010, I don't quite get it. (And neither do Republican legislators, who are telling him to shut up.)
• Votes: The Hill compiles a list of 23 Democrats who have indicated opposition to "the health care plan moving through the House." (Nancy Pelosi can afford to lose up to 38 votes.) It's unclear what "opposition" means, and the rationale isn't always the same (Eric Massa, for instance, opposes it, but only because he's stuck in single-payer mode), but it's an interesting list, generally of the vulnerable and/or the hardcore Blue Doggish (although New Jersey's John Adler strangely stands out like a sore thumb).
• CT-Sen: CQ looks at how Rob Simmons has been consolidating all of the establishment support in the GOP primary, despite it being a crowded field: he just got the endorsement of state House #2 GOPer (and former state party chair) Bill Hamzy. He's also endorsed by state House minority leader Larry Cafero and 20 members of the state party's central committee. Meanwhile, looking all the way ahead to 2012, Alec Baldwin backed down from earlier provocative statements, saying that he doesn't actually intend to run against Joe Lieberman.
• FL-Sen: Another indicator of a bumpy ride for Charlie Crist in the upcoming primary: he lost a straw poll vote among the Bay County GOP to Marco Rubio by the lopsided margin of 23 to 2. Bear in mind, of course, this is the hardcore party activist faithful in one of the state's most conservative counties in the Panhandle.
• UT-Sen: The Club for Growth has leaped into the circular firing squad in Utah, with a letter-writing campaign targeted at the 3,000+ delegates going to the state GOP's nominating convention next year. AG Mark Shurtleff and potentially Rep. Jason Chaffetz consider taking out long-time Sen. Bob Bennett, who's only very conservative and not super-duper-extra conserative.
• CA-Gov: Two separate polls (from little-known local pollsters) of the Democratic gubernatorial primary show San Francisco mayor Gavin Newsom way behind ex-Gov. Jerry Brown. Moore Methods finds Brown leading Newson 49-20 statewide among Dems, while David Binder polled only Dems in San Francisco, where Newsom's support should be its strongest, but finds Brown leading 51-34 even there, with Newsom winning only among the 30-and-under set.
• NJ-Gov: There's a weird feeling in the air that things may actually be starting to turn around in New Jersey... the main question remains whether Jon Corzine got himself into too deep a hole to dig all the way out in time. A lot of that has to do with the ethical malfeasance spotlight swinging back toward Chris Christie, as possible Hatch Act violations and unreported loans tarnish him, stories that dominated a disastrous Christie conference call with reporters yesterday despite Christie's intent of using the call to tar Corzine with the Wall Street brush.
But most significantly, there was the poll that came out yesterday from Republican internal pollster Neighborhood Strategies that showed Christie up only 39%-36% over Corzine among "definite" voters, with Chris Daggett at 6% (and 37-35-6 among likely voters). Even more ominously for Christie, the poll found that the undecided electorate "skews heavily to the left." One big caveat, though: this isn't Christie's pollster, but rather a firm run by Rick Shaftan that worked for Christie's ultra-conservative primary rival Steve Lonegan (it also has a big fat margin of error). Does the Lonegan camp still have an axe to grind? But if they do, how would releasing a juiced poll long after the primary help them out?
• NY-Gov: Tea leaf readers think that Rudy Giuliani is moving closer to running for Governor in 2010. Rudy says he'll decide within the next 30 to 60 days, but some see his involvement in the state GOP party chair imbroglio as evidence of his desire to have the party machinery working smoothly behind him if he runs. Rudy apparently successfully talked state party chair Joseph Mondello into resigning yesterday, but he still has one more hurdle, steering key ally Henry Wojtaszek into the chairman position instead of the presmued frontrunner for the position, Ed Cox (who was a McCain backer in 2008). (Of course, Giuliani's most daunting problem would be one he has no control over -- getting the Democrats to not force David Paterson out to make way for Andrew Cuomo, who all polls show flattening Giuliani.)
• SC-Gov: The South Carolina GOP is back to talking about impeachment again at their legislative retreat next weekend, as Mark Sanford is at a bit of a low point again, thanks to disclosures about his abuses of state and private planes. Meanwhile, AG Henry McMaster made it official that he's getting into the gubernatorial race for the GOP, McMaster launched his bid with a swipe at Sanford, saying there's been too much dishonesty and scandal in the state.
• AL-05: Freshman Rep. Parker Griffith has announced he won't be voting for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker again, saying she's too divisive. Griffith is girding for a difficult first re-election in this R+12 district.
• CA-18: Republicans nailed down a challenger against Dennis Cardoza: Turlock Irrigation Board member Mike Berryhill. This Hispanic-majority district hasn't seen a competitive race in a long time, but at D+4 isn't exactly a slam dunk for Dems.
• GA-04: DeKalb County Commissioner Lee May is now considering a primary challenge to Rep. Hank Johnson, in this district that has seen its share of successful primary challenges recently (although both were against Cynthia McKinney). Based on his closeness with DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones, it seems like he'd be coming at the very liberal Johnson from the right.
• NE-02: Speaking of primary challenges from the right, here's one in an unusual place: Nebraska's 2nd, where Lee Terry is a reliably conservative vote (although he did vote in favor of TARP, and also famously tried to sell himself to Obama-Terry voters last year). Still, he's facing a possible serious challenge from health care technology company president Matt Sakalosky, who seems to have the money to self-fund. Sakalosky just confirmed he's in the race and has his first campaign event set for Saturday.
• OH-16: Calling all Arena Football fans! (All 2 of you!) Co-owner of the Columbus Destroyers (and former mayor of Akron suburb Wadsworth) Jim Renacci has filed to take on freshman Dem John Boccieri in the Canton-based R+4 district.
• TN-05: Daily Kos is bird-dogging Blue Dog Jim Cooper, and finds he's got some mediocre numbers among the folks back home, with 47-41 favorables and a re-elect of 36% (with 41% consider someone else and 23% definitely replace). R2K also finds that he'd lose support among both Dems and independents if he opposed public option.
• TN-09: Mercurial Memphis mayor Willie Herenton says that he won't, after all, run in the special election to succeed himself, caused by his resignation. Instead, he'll focus on his primary challenge to Steve Cohen in the 9th, which was the point of his original resignation.
• KY-St. Sen.: There's a big special election tonight in northeastern Kentucky, where a vacant state Senate seat will be filled. The two candidates are Democrat Robin Webb and Republican Jack Ditty, who are trying to replace GOPer Charlie Borders, who was appointed by Democratic Gov. Steve Beshear to the Public Service Commission. Republicans currently control the Senate 20-16-1 (and this 1 vacancy).
• CO-Sen: Did someone feed Bob Beauprez after midnight? Because more and more Republican Senate contenders seem to be hatching in Colorado lately. The newest potential candidate, former Lt. Governor Jane Norton, who served under GOP Gov. Bill Owens in his second term, is "seriously considering" challenging newbie Democrat Michael Bennet, and will "make a decision in 30 days".
• CT-04: Republicans may have been dealt a huge blow to their chances of knocking off frosh Democrat Jim Himes when state Senate minority leader John McKinney decided to stay put, but it looks like they've rebounded somewhat with the recruitment of state Sen. Dan Debicella. Debicella will be facing primary competition, though, as former state Sen. Bob Russo of Bridgeport also threw his hat into the ring yesterday. Russo doesn't have a ton of elected experience under his belt, though; he won a special election in early 2008, but was swamped out of his Senate seat by the Obama tide last November after only 10 months in office. Russo seems to be striking a Shays-like tone in his early remarks, while Debicella sounds more like a meat-and-potatoes conservative.
• FL-Gov: The Florida Chamber of Commerce released a poll yesterday showing Republican Bill McCollum leading Dem CFO Alex Sink by a 43-34 margin. No word on which outfit actually conducted the poll, but it wouldn't be too far out of line with the most recent public polls we've seen out of the Sunshine state.
• KS-03: After dispatching highly-touted GOP state Sen. Nick Jordan last year without breaking much of a sweat (dude clearly picked the wrong cycle to run), Democratic Rep. Dennis Moore may face another legitimate opponent in 2010. Terry Goodman, a city councilor from Overland Park (a populous Kansas City suburb), says he's "taking a look" at a congressional run.
• NE-02: It looks like GOP Rep. Lee Terry may want to spend less time casting lines for Obama-Terry voters and start keeping an eye on his right flank. Terry is facing a primary challenge from businessman and self-described Reagan Republican Matt Sakalosky, much to the discomfort of Douglas County Republicans. Sakalosky, angry at Lee Terry's TARP vote last fall, has no elected experience, but insists that he's well-versed for the job because he "watches television news and reads political biographies". (Don't laugh; the fact that he actually reads books probably puts him a peg above a few of the ass-scratching mouth-breathers filling out the ranks in the Boehner caucus.)
• NJ-Gov: If Jon Corzine is going to be re-elected, he won't be doing so with the help of the Sierra Club. The environmental org endorsed independent candidate Chris Daggett yesterday, himself a one-time environmental protection commissioner under former GOP governor Tom Kean.
• NV-Sen, NV-Lt. Gov: Nevada's GOP Lt. Governor, Brian Krolicki, facing a felony indictment over the mishandling of state funds, has announced that he'll seek re-election next year. Krolicki, as you may recall, formed an exploratory committee for a race against Harry Reid not long before he was slapped with the indictment. He must be hoping for a dynamite year for the GOP if he thinks he can pull a Don Young.
• NY-Gov: Are we preparing for life after David Paterson already? GOP gubernatorial hopeful Rick Lazio is looking a few chess moves ahead by picking a fight with state AG Andrew Cuomo over his office not following through with an investigation into the hiring of state Pedro G. Espada (son of crumb-bum Sen. Pedro Espada Jr.) for a well-paid job with the state Senate Democrats. Cuomo, who raised the issue of the dubious hire before anyone else, ended the investigation after Pedro G. resigned last week.
• PA-06: It looks like newspaperman Doug "Captain" Pike has effectively sealed the Democratic nomination for the open seat race to replace Jim Gerlach; the 800 pound gorilla in the district, state Sen. Andy Dinniman, announced yesterday that he's deciding to keep his powder dry, citing the uncertainties of redistricting as his key reason. '08 Dem nominee Bob Roggio also pulled the plug on a do-over last Friday.
• TN-09: Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton denies that he has a mental problem.
• VA-05: Everyone expects freshly-minted Dem Rep. Tom Perriello to face a tough re-election campaign next year, but we're still waiting to figure out who the GOP plans to nominate. A couple of new candidates stepped up to the plate this weekend: high school biology teacher Feda Kidd Morton and real estate investor Laurence Verga both say that they'll join "FairTax advocate" Bradley S. Rees in the Republican primary. GOP bigwigs are likely holding out hope for a candidate with more obvious firepower, such as state Sen. Robert Hurt or Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd, who says that he's "still considering it very seriously".
• WI-Gov, WI-01, WI-03: Democratic Lt. Governor Barbara Lawton is officially in the race to replace Jim Doyle, and congressman Ron Kind is also weighing the race heavily. Kind says that he will make a decision "in the weeks to come". Open seat watchers will be aware that Kind is currently being challenged by Republican state Sen. Dan Kapanke, whose track record of winning over Dem-leaning voters would put this D+3 seat at serious risk should it come open. And in case you were wondering, 1st District GOP Rep. Paul Ryan pre-empted any speculation that he may run by putting out a statement denying his interest.
• 2010: It's pretty early, but some prognosticators are already making predictions for next year's mid-terms:
"There's offense and there's defense. Right now, you're going to be spending time on defense," said Charlie Cook of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. "Intensity matters a lot. Last time you [Democrats] had it, this time they [Republicans] have it," Mr. Cook said, adding that he expects about a 20-seat loss in the 2010 mid-term elections.
Poll analyst Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com did not agree with Mr. Cook. He expects Democrats to do even worse.
Mr. Silver said Democrats often told him his Obama-friendly polls comforted them last fall. "I don't think you should feel at all comforted about 2010," he said to a standing-room-only crowd. He said he expects Democrats will lose from 20 to 50 House seats and up to six Senate seats next year.
When we last checked in on Nebraska's 2nd District, Democratic state Sen. Tom White (well, the unicameral is officially nonpartisan, but...) was seriously considering jumping into the race, and said that he'd make a decision sometime this month. Well, it looks like Senator White is giving the green light to a House bid:
State Sen. Tom White of Omaha plans to begin raising money for an expected challenge of U.S. Rep. Lee Terry in a race that's already gaining national attention from Republican and Democratic headquarters.
White said he will create an exploratory committee, the first step before the launch of a full-scale campaign. The exploratory committee allows White to raise cash while wooing supporters.
White, 52, is a civil rights attorney and longtime Democrat who has served three years in the Nebraska Legislature. He plans to make a final decision later this year about running.
He says the time is right for Democrats to reclaim the House seat they lost in the so-called Republican Revolution of 1994. He said the party needs to capitalize on President Barack Obama winning an electoral vote in the 2nd Congressional District.
"The Obama people are still here. The people who were energized by his campaign, the people who filled the convention center (for an Obama visit) are still here, the people who came to the caucuses are still here," said White.
I like White quite a bit for this seat; he's already shown some serious spunk in his early broadsides against Terry for his hypocrisy in voting against the recent war supplemental funding bill, and his time spent in the unicameral neutralizes the "experience" argument that Terry effectively used against Democrat Jim Esch last year.
While this will no doubt be a tough (but fun) race, I assume that White is in this to win -- and that this exploratory phase is merely a formality. (In the diaries, X Strykerhas more.)
State Sen. Tom White filed papers today to form an exploratory committee to run for congress in Nebraska's second district as a Democrat against Republican Lee Terry. He sent out an email to supporters and posted a diary at DailyKos announcing the filing, putting an emphasis on health care reform and jobs. Senator White was previously mentioned here on SSP which seems to have caught White's attention - it's the first post listed in his candidate website newsroom, followed by stories from Roll Call, the Omaha World Herald, and the progressive blog New Nebraska Network (where he also posted an announcement diary today).
• FL-Sen: Oh please, oh please: The Club for Growth's president, David Keating, says that he's very impressed with Marco Rubio, and may run ads against Rubio's primary opponent, Charlie Crist (although he said there's no set timeline for "endorsement"). Politico also points to a strongly anti-Crist new editorial from the Wall Street Journal that, believe it or not, compares Crist to Barney Frank (get your mind out of the gutter... apparently it has something to do with an analogy between hurricane insurance and Fannie Mae).
• MN-Sen: Despite the fact that Tim Pawlenty (not running for re-election, but probably running for the Big Show in 2012) is now answerable to the nationwide GOP base rather than to all Minnesotans, he's not going to obstruct the all-but-inevitable seating of Al Franken. He confirmed on CNN that he'll certify Franken if Norm Coleman loses his Minnesota Supreme Court case.
• NC-Sen: While former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is making some senatorial noises, he says that he won't commit to a timeline on getting into the race, saying only that he'll make a "timely decision."
• AL-Gov: We're up to six Republican gubernatorial candidates now; Bill Johnson, the state director of Economic and Community Affairs, resigned his post on Friday and declared his candidacy. Despite his statewide position, Johnson seems like kind of an odd duck; he was the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Missouri in 1994.
• SC-Gov: The behind-the-scenes battle is heating up between Mark Sanford and his Lt. Governor and possible successor (either via resignation or the 2010 election), Andre Bauer. Bauer's would-be opponents (who would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes into the election as an incumbent) are already dusting off old lines of attack from his LG primary campaign in 2006, that Bauer is too much of a fast-driving, plane-crashing party boy and not sufficiently conservative. (Bauer's spokesperson does some very strange pushback in this article, seemingly protesting too much that Bauer is merely a "red-blooded American male" and "straight.") The New York Times details efforts by Bauer's camp to exert pressure on legislators to pressure Sanford to resign (which came to public light when Bauer's camp inadvertently contacted an ally of potential 2010 rival AG Henry McMaster).
Meanwhile, State Rep. Nikki Haley has been encouraging Sanford not to resign (which he says he won't do) -- on the surface because she was one of Sanford's few legislative allies even before the scandal, but at this point, more importantly because she's also running in 2010 and would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes in as a one-year incumbent. She has also issued a statement "fear[ing] for the conservative reform movement" if Bauer takes office. Similarly, McMaster seems reluctant to launch criminal investigations into Sanford -- again, the subtext being that would make Sanford's immediate replacement by Bauer likelier.
• WI-Gov: Here's an interesting rumor: Gov. Jim Doyle may be in line to take over as the next head of the Peace Corps. Not only would this spare us a 2nd re-election run by Doyle, who's been posting mediocre poll numbers, but, assuming he resigns to take the new post, it would give Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton the chance to run in 2010 with a year of incumbency under her belt.
• AL-05: Despite earlier reports that the GOP was happy with their recruit to run in AL-05, businessman and local GOP "minority outreach" coordinator Lester Philip, they've recruited a higher-profile figure to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith. Madison Co. (location of Huntsville) Commissioner Mo Brooks said he'll formally enter the race this week.
• CA-11: After first flirting with the CA-10 special election and then flirting with the idea of running against Rep. Jerry McNerney in CA-11 in 2010, Contra Costa Co. Sheriff Warren Rupf declared that he isn't running for Congress, period. Rupf, in fact, basically gave Congress the middle finger, saying his values "don't line up with the fringes of either party and compromising my values or my priorities is a price I am not willing to pay."
• CA-24: The DCCC has been cajoling Peter Jim Dantona, a local political consultant, to get into the race against longtime Rep. Elton Gallegly in the 24th. Dantona proved his bona fides by almost winning a seat on the Ventura Co. Board of Supervisors in a heavily Republican district. (Another consideration is the possibility that Gallegly, who's tried to retire before, may turn this district, which Obama won 51-48, into an open seat if faced with a stiff challenge.)
• CA-50: A Francine Busby fundraiser in a supporter's backyard turned into a bit of a melee when the police were called over a noise complaint, ending with the party's 60-year-old host getting pepper-sprayed and arrested when she wouldn't give the police her name and date of birth.
• FL-24: GOP State Rep. (and former mayor of Port Orange) Dorothy Hukill announced her interest in taking on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. The NRCC was already highly touting Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel in this race, so it'll be interesting to see if Hukill is doing this on her own, or if the NRCC kept looking after pre-emptive Dem attacks on Diebel's stability may have damaged Diebel.
• MI-03: Rep. Vernon Ehlers, who's 75, sounded a little ambivalent about running for another term in 2010. Roll Call does some interesting dot-connecting: Ehlers and SoS Terri Lynn Land are friendly, and her sudden jump out of the governor's race, where she looked competitive, may have something to do with her getting some insider information on MI-03 being available instead.
• NC-08: The GOP is still wondering what to do about a challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell. Oddly, their first choice is a rerun by former Rep. Robin Hayes, who looked clueless en route to losing in 2008 by over 10 points. (Hayes is still considering it, but also helping to recruit other candidates.) Another possible (and more ominous) contender, who hasn't ruled it out, is Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, who lost the 2008 gubernatorial race and will be looking for something else to do after his seventh mayoral term ends this year. Union Co. District Attorney John Snyder was also cited as a possible GOPer.
• NE-02: Rep. Lee Terry seems to be under a lot of stress lately, as seen by his recent F-bomb-laced freak-out when trying to cross the street in Washington.
• Fundraising: Just a friendly reminder: the fundraising quarter ends tomorrow. If there's a candidate out there who you want to give some early momentum to, now's the time to contribute.
One of the most remarkable stories of the 2008 election was the dramatic Democratic surge in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. After pouring in an unprecedented amount of resources into the Omaha-based CD, the Obama campaign narrowly won the district's electoral vote just four years after John Kerry lost here by a punishing 60-38 margin. The district's most populous area, Douglas County, saw Democrats overtake Republicans in voter registration for the first time since 1994, and the environment seemed ripe for GOP Rep. Lee Terry to face the most serious challenge of his career. Unfortunately, Terry held on by a four-point margin against his rematch challenger, Jim Esch (who lost by nine points in 2006), letting the GOP retain its domination of Nebraska's House delegation.
However, Esch's two solid shots against Terry may not have been made in vain, as a much more politically-seasoned challenger is contemplating a run: Omaha attorney and state Sen. Tom White, a man with some serious moxie. From the Lincoln Journal-Star:
State Sen. Tom White strode Saturday night to the brink of a 2010 bid for Republican Rep. Lee Terry's House seat.
White focused on Terry with the intensity of a laser beam during a speech to 350 Democrats, portraying the six-term congressman as a tool of the GOP House leadership.
Terry has "morphed from George Bush's rubberstamp into a proud, card-carrying member of the Party of No," White told the traditional Morrison-Exon Dinner audience. [...]
"We have a certain congressman who enthusiastically supported just about every idea George W. Bush came up with," White said, "yet now reflexively votes against President Obama every chance he gets - just because his party leaders tell him to."
On the GOP's move to vote against the recent supplemental funding bill for operations in Iraq and Afghanistan, White is more than eager to feed the GOP some of its own medicine:
Terry voted last week against a supplemental appropriations bill that included funding for the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, White said.
"We support the troops with more than just sound bites," he said.
"We will never, ever play politics with funding for troops in the field like House Republicans did."
White says that he's "seriously considering entering the race", and will make a decision sometime next month. Judging by his eagerness to take the fight to Terry, I'd have to guess that White is at least leaning in favor of jumping into the race. And while White won't have the advantage of the Obama turnout operation working in his favor, there are signs that Omaha's blue trend wasn't just a temporary aberration: Democrat Jim Suttle recently held the hotly-contested open seat mayor's race against ex-Mayor (and ex-Rep.) Hal Daub, and Democrats took control of the Omaha city council for the first time since the 1980s. White's legislative accomplishments and political seasoning would also blunt one of Terry's favorite attack lines against Jim Esch -- namely, the fact that no one seemed to know what Esch did for a living outside his two congressional runs.
Here's some good news from Nebraska: there are now more registered Democrats than Republicans in Douglas County (Omaha) for the first time since 1994. Incidentally, 1994 was the last year that the Omaha-based 2nd District had a Democratic representative in the House.
The raw numbers: there are now 125,602 Democrats to 122,955 Republicans in Douglas County (the entirety of which is in the 2nd Congressional District, currently held by GOP Rep. Lee Terry). That's a big change from the start of the year, when Republicans held a 122,140 to 110,016 advantage. And it seems like this new energy is translating into a sizable early voting edge for Dems in Douglas County -- where almost 50% of the early votes have been from registered Democrats, while only 36% have been from registered Republicans.
Now, this advantage isn't going to hold though until election day, and Douglas isn't the only county in the 2nd Congressional District (although, with about 80% of its population, it is certainly the most important) -- there's also Sarpy, a more conservative-leaning county that gave Terry a 26-point edge in 2006. But these numbers are another good sign that Democrat Jim Esch has a fighting chance to take this seat.
Wow. These are ground-shaking numbers. No wonder Lee Terry has been fishing so furiously for "Obama-Terry voters" -- he might need a few to survive this November.
Terry's favorables: 54-39 (down from 60-33), while Esch is at 51-30 (from 35-13 in July). Terry's job approval rating has also taken a dive -- from 60-34 in July to 53-43 today. With the DCCC currently pounding Terry on the airwaves, these numbers could fall even further.
Update: One thing that's worth mentioning is the sample's composition. This poll pegs the African-American vote at 4%, while the population of the 2nd District is 10.2% black according to the Almanac of American Politics. If those voters turn out, they could tip the balance here.
Partial crosstabs given exclusively to the Swing State Project are available below the fold.
Daily Kos released a pair of new House polls last night and today. Let's take a look.
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/6-8, likely voters):
Bob Lord (D): 39
John Shadegg (R-inc): 48
(MoE: ±5%)
The last poll we saw of this race, from Anzalone Liszt showed a dead heat. R2K didn't include the Libertarian candidate in its polling (an oversight), which Markos believes would have shaved off a point or two from Shadegg. In any case, Shadegg is under 50 and is currently weathering a series of big hits from both Lord and the DCCC (who have spent nearly $700K on this race so far). A recent Roll Call article takes note of some displeasure with Shadegg's campaign by DC GOP insiders, so you have to wonder what their own internal polling is telling them.
But this is even more remarkable -- check out the Presidential numbers in this district. McCain is only beating Obama by 50-39 here. Put that in perspective: This is an R+6.5 district that Bush carried by 58-41 in 2004. Despite having a homestate advantage, and Obama largely not contesting the state (at least, in terms of serious media buys), McCain is only hitting 50%. That's pretty stunning, and possibly an ominous sign for Republicans like Tim Bee and Dave Schweikert, who were counting on some McNap coattails to carry them over the line in the 8th and 5th Districts.
And now for Nebraska. Research 2000 (10/6-8, likely voters):
Jim Esch (D): 39
Lee Terry (R-inc): 49
(MoE: ±5%)
Nothing especially strong for Lee Terry there (especially when you consider that this is an R+9 district), but also one that doesn't seem to have budged much from Terry's 55-45 win over Esch in 2006. In Esch's favor, he's getting the kind of help that he lacked last time: Obama has opened his third field office in Omaha just recently, and the DCCC has reserved $435K worth of ad time against Terry (although no ads have been aired yet, to the best of my knowledge). It would be nice if we could check in with this race with a few more polls in a couple of weeks.
Bonus finding: McCain leads Obama by 53-40 in this district.
Here's a recent mailer sent out by the campaign of disingenuous, unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry:
You might recall Lee Terry's almost-endorsement of Barack Obama earlier this year, when he said that his district was seeing a wave of "Obama-Terry voters", whom he described as "people who want the right kind of change."
Keep in mind that this is an R+9 district -- although one that the Obama campaign is continuing to target and one where the DCCC has booked $435K worth of ad time. If Esch wins here, we're talking about a big-time wave -- it might still be unlikely, but it's not nearly as far-fetched as it was a couple weeks ago.
Well, if there was any doubt about the competitiveness of Democrat Jim Esch's race against unaccomplished GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Omaha, Nebraska, it should now be erased:
The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has made a six-figure investment in television ads to air on Omaha stations between now and Election Day.
The ads are part of a campaign to boost Jim Esch in his race against incumbent Lee Terry.
"They wouldn't be doing this is they didn't think this was a race that could be won," said Esch.
Public documents indicate that the DCCC bought nearly $200,000 in television ads. Committee records last month indicated that the party recognizes Esch as a strong candidate to take away a Republican seat.
Remember, this is an R+9 seat that Bush carried carried comfortably twice. However, the GOP's grip on the seat showed signs of loosening in 2006, when Terry won by a surprising 55-45 margin against the underfunded Esch. With the Obama campaign on the ground in Omaha and targeting its lone electoral vote and the DCCC now on the air, Esch no longer has to go it alone. This is a pretty big deal.
Earlier in day, we noted that the DCCC added businessman Jim Esch (and seven others) to its Red to Blue program. Esch is making his second try against GOP Rep. Lee Terry in Nebraska's Omaha-based 2nd District, which has a PVI of R+9.
This is an interesting race for a lot of reasons. Despite the lion's share of the hype in 2006 being directed to Maxine Moul in Nebraska's 1st and Scott Kleeb in the 3rd District, Esch came the closest to beating a Republican of all three Nebraska House candidates, falling short of Terry by 10% despite running a low-budget campaign. A poll from earlier this summer showed Terry leading by 47-38 -- a similar 9-point margin, but under the 50% "vulnerability" threshold for incumbents. Even more interesting are the Presidential numbers in the district -- that poll pegged McCain's lead at a mere four points. It's numbers like those that show you why Terry was mouthing off so loudly about "Obama-Terry voters" earlier this year.
I think it would take a big national win by Obama in order for him to pick off this electoral vote, and I don't think that such a scenario is in the cards. But the effort is still being made, as evidenced by the Obama campaign setting up shop in Omaha on Wednesday:
"An Obama win in Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District is an important piece of our pathway to victory this Tuesday, November 4th," said Obama Campaign Manager David Plouffe. "By opening a Nebraska campaign headquarters - the first presidential campaign this cycle to do so - we are able to empower residents to join our grassroots movement for change."
That event attracted 900 volunteers. However, it's numbers like these that are the most interesting tea leaves of this election:
Figures from the Douglas County Election Commissioner's Office show that almost 1,200 registered Democrats were added to county rolls in the past three months, compared with 53 for Republicans.
That was on top of strong Democratic registrations last winter. In February, for example, when Obama made a campaign stop in Omaha, Democrats registered more than double the number that Republicans registered.
The election office said it has a backlog of several thousand registration forms yet to process.
Karl Rove's biggest success, and his longest-lasting contribution to the Republican Party, was his efforts to build the GOP's base by activating conservative evangelical voters and making them aware of the stakes in the 2004 election. While Barack Obama's ultimate fate this November is still very much up in the air, the numbers are pretty clear -- in NE-02 and in key swing states around the nation -- one party is growing their base, and the other is not.
The phantom poll of Nebraska's Omaha-based 2nd CD is now unmasked. SSP has obtained a copy of the poll's internals, and we'll share the top lines with you below.
Anzalone Liszt (7/27-8/2, likely voters):
Jim Esch (D): 38
Lee Terry (R-inc): 47
(MoE: ±4.0%)
In 2006, Jim Esch held Lee Terry, a five-term but largely unaccomplished congressman, to a surprisingly close 55-45 margin, despite running an underfunded campaign in an R+9 district. Judging by these numbers, if Esch can assemble more resources than the $400K he raised in 2006, he might be able to run an even closer race. Indeed, with only 48% name recognition (to Terry's 93%), he clearly has room to grow.
On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats only trail Republicans by five points (42-37), which, all things considered, seems to be a dramatic turnaround from the 22 and 18-point drubbings that Bush delivered to Kerry and Gore here in 2004 and 2000, respectively. If Dems are ever going to make a breakthrough in Nebraska, you would figure that Omaha would be ground zero for their resurgence.
Here's another key number from the poll:
Barack Obama (D): 42
John McCain (R): 46
Obama's within striking distance of McCain, and if he can manage to win here, he'll pick off a solid red electoral vote. I wouldn't bet the bank on it, but the numbers clearly show you why Terry keeps on mouthing off about the surge of "Obama-Terry voters" in the district.
Over at the Lincoln Journal-Star, Don Walton buries this nugget in his latest column:
New 2nd District Democratic poll shows Barack Obama and John McCain virtually even in measurements of approval and disapproval.
The figures for Bush tip substantially toward disapproval.
That seems to point toward an effort to tie McCain securely to Bush as Obama seeks a presidential electoral vote in the metropolitan Omaha congressional district.
Jim Esch trailed Lee Terry by a single digit in the poll. (Emphasis added)
Unfortunately, the who, what, and when of this poll is still unknown, so take it with a grain of salt until we can find out more about this phantom poll.
Well, now that Lee [Terry] has endorsed McCain, we can assume Lee wants us there for another 100 years. Lee has said "Stay the Course" more times than I can count. It is in the best interest of our troops and our nation to get our troops home, and Lee cannot be trusted to act in those best interests.
Former Democratic Congressional candidate Richard Carter endorsed Republican incumbent Lee Terry Saturday in the 2nd District race.
The move by Carter bypasses Democratic nominee Jim Esch, who defeated Carter in the May primary. Esch ran in 2006 and lost to Terry, who's seeking his sixth term.
"I am a Democrat, but first I am an American," Carter said. The United States faces serious problems, he continued, and "we need someone in Congress who has a real plan to deal with them."
And this is the same guy who endorsed the "Responsible Plan"? What a dick.
Esch is hoping an Obama surge here will help him but Terry's ready to fight, with help from an all new team, what Terry calls "The Obama-Terry voter." Terry says they are, "people who want the right kind of change."
Esch told me today he'd like to meet the Obama-Terry voters. According to Esch he, "can't imagine what they look like."
Note: Despite his apparent confusion, Lee Terry is not a superdelegate.
May is going to be an exciting month for political junkies. We've got a cornucopia of races to watch this month: two special elections, and a number of competitive House, Senate and Gubernatorial primaries.
Let's take a look at the month ahead:
May 3: This Saturday, Louisiana voters will head to the polls in two congressional special elections:
LA-06: Democratic state Rep. Don Cazayoux will square off with "newspaper editor" Woody Jenkins to fill the open seat of ex-Rep. Richard Baker. In this hotly contested race, Democrats have been blessed with the better candidate, stellar fundraising, and favorable polls. However, the NRCC and their allies have dumped hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads painting Cazayoux as a serial tax raiser and a Barack Obama disciple.
We'll find out on Saturday night if any of these attacks have made an impact. The most recent poll, though, shows Cazayoux with a nine point lead. SSP will be liveblogging the results, so be sure to check with us then. There will also be a special election to replace Bobby Jindal in LA-01, but this one should be a solid lock for the GOP.
May 6: While the eyes of the nation will be fixed on the Indiana and North Carolina presidential primaries, voters in these states will also be deciding a number of other hotly-contested primaries:
IN-Gov (D): Indianapolis architect Jim Schellinger will square off with former U.S. Rep. Jill Long Thompson for the Democratic nod against Mitch Daniels. Schellinger's had a big fundraising edge, but the polls here have generally been tight, with an edge for Thompson. This one could be close.
IN-07 (D): Despite winning a March special election to fill the vacant seat created by his grandmother's passing, Rep. Andre Carson faces a competitive primary for the Democratic slot on the November ballot. His strongest rival is former state Health Commissioner Woody Myers, who has lent his campaign a substantial amount of money. State Reps. David Orentlicher and Carolene Mays will also be on the ballot.
NC-Gov: Democrats will decide a contentious primary between Lt. Gov. Beverly Perdue and State Treasurer Richard Moore for the gubernatorial nomination. Perdue has had the advantage in nearly all of SurveyUSA's tracking polls here.
Republicans will also decide a primary for this office between Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory and state Sen. Fred Smith (plus two also-rans). In the most recent SUSA poll, Smith was only four points behind the front-runner McCrory.
NC-Sen (D): State Senator Kay Hagan and businessman Jim Neal will face off for the Democratic nomination to challenge GOP Sen. Elizabeth Dole. While this contest was effectively tied for a while, Hagan's large fundraising edge on Neal has been enough to buy her a 20-point lead in the latest poll.
NC-03 (R): For a while, it looked like this primary might have been as heated as Andy Harris' successful overthrow of anti-war moderate GOP Rep. Wayne Gilchrest in Maryland. But Onslow County Commissioner Joe McLaughlin's campaign against Rep. Walter Jones hasn't gotten a lot of fundraising traction. It will still be worth watching to see just how tolerant GOP primary voters will be of Jones' anti-war stance.
NC-10 (R): While I don't expect Air Force vet Lance Sigmon to topple the odious Patrick McHenry in the GOP primary, his campaign drew a fair bit of attention for his aggressive attacks on McHenry's antics in Iraq (calling a security worker a "two-bit security guard", and compromising troop safety by posting a video of an attack in the Green Zone). Democrats have a strong candidate against McHenry for the November election -- veteran and hero Daniel Johnson -- so Sigmon's showing might give us a good reading on how damaging McHenry's behavior has been to his re-election chances in this R+15 district.
May 13: Another huge day for political watchers, with hot races in Mississippi and Nebraska.
MS-01: The big event. Democratic Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers has waged a startlingly strong campaign for the open seat left behind earlier this year when Roger Wicker was appointed to the Senate. Despite running in an R+10 district and being at a financial disadvantage, Childers edged GOP candidate and Southaven Mayor Greg Davis by a 49%-46% margin in the April 22 special primary election. Davis and the NRCC have fought back hard, trying to tie Childers to Nancy Pelosi and Barack Obama. But the DCCC is playing to win, and they've invested a whopping $1.1 million in this race. This one should be close.
NE-Sen (D): Here's something rare -- a Democratic primary for a statewide office in Nebraska. Businessman and former Republican Tony Raimondo will compete with former congressional candidate Scott Kleeb for the Democratic nod against the Republican front-runner, Mike Johanns.
NE-02 (D): GOP Rep. Lee Terry had a surprisingly close re-election campaign in 2006, winning his district by less than 10 points against political neophyte Jim Esch. Now, Esch is back for a rematch, but will first meet with Iraq War vet Richard Carter for the Democratic nomination. Between Esch's name recognition and Carter's weak fundraising, Esch is in a good position to win here.
May 20: There are four primaries in Kentucky and Oregon worth keeping an eye on.
KY-Sen (D): Former gubernatorial candidate and businessman Bruce Lunsford and businessman Greg Fischer will face off against a slew of also-rans for the Democratic nomination against GOP obstructionist-in-chief Mitch McConnell. Lunsford has never been able to win a Democratic primary, but this might be his chance. Polls have shown him with a large lead against Fischer, whose campaign has yet to catch fire.
KY-02 (D): Democrats will go to the polls to decide between state Sen. David Boswell and Daviess County Judge-Executive Reid Haire for the Democratic nomination to contest this open seat left behind by the retiring Rep. Ron Lewis. Boswell was seen as the early front-runner, but his fundraising has been extremely sluggish ($30K to Haire's $200K in the first quarter). Still, Boswell might have a chance based on name recognition alone.
OR-Sen (D): Another big event, with state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and activist Steve Novick competing for the Democratic nomination against Gordon Smith. Novick has kept this a competitive race, airing quirky ads and winning several key newspaper endorsements.
OR-05: With the retirement of Rep. Darlene Hooley (D), there are tight primary contests on both sides to succeed her. Democrats will pick between former Gov. Kitzhaber aide Steve Marks and state Sen. Kurt Schrader. Marks has picked up the larger share of endorsements so far, while Schrader appears to be the DCCC's preferred candidate. (Update: As Kari notes in the comments, my statement about endorsements here is a bit off the mark. Schrader's been no slouch in this department at all. My mistake!)
On the GOP side, voters will choose between '06 nominee and businessman Mike Erickson and former Gov. candidate Kevin Mannix.
There you have it. May will be a month chock full of races worth watching. SSP will aim to liveblog as many of these races as we can when the results come in.
I am a Democratic candidate for United States Congress in Nebraska's Second Congressional District.
The United States' position in Iraq is absolutely untenable. We cannot afford the cost of the war in dollars or lives. We cannot continue to risk our national defense and our future military readiness in the pursuit of George Bush's delusions. We must bring our troops home and allow the Iraqi people to assume their own sovereignty.
This war costs $8 billion a month, roughly $187,000 every minute of every day. This war has cost us the lives of 3,943 American Soldiers, Sailors, Airmen, and Marines, and over 28,000 more wounded. This war has immeasurably cost our government its credibility both on the world stage, and in the hearts and minds of the American people.
Our huge commitment in Iraq has ruined our ability to effectively manage other situations. Our military is no longer prepared to deal with potential threats, such as Iran and North Korea. More dangerously, our national defense is in a state of total disrepair. Much of our military equipment has been overused; additionally, a vast majporty of our National Guard units are unprepared for combat. Because of this, we are not even able to defend our borders or to adequately respond to natural disasters.
I am not in favor of timetables for withdrawal, which prolong the situation--we should simply leave as quickly and safely as possible. George Bush and his Republican allies in Congress have tried to convince the American people that this is tantamount to defeat. This is incredibly disrespectful to the men and women who put their lives on the line in Iraq every day.
Our brave men and women have accomplished every mission they were given. Saddam has been deposed. There are no weapons of mass destruction. The Iraqi people have a constitution and a democratically elected government. At this point, there are no more military solutions in Iraq, only political solutions. Once we send a strong message that our presence in Iraq is neither permanent nor unconditional, it becomes much more likely that Iraqi political leaders will take the steps necessary to resolve their country's political and security crisis. Only when we stop subsidizing the religious and ethnic strife in Iraq will the Iraqis have an incentive to work together for their own security and prosperity. We should bring our troops home now.
