SSP Daily Digest: 3/19 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Fri Mar 19, 2010 at 2:25 PM EDT

• IA-Gov: Actually, maybe the departure of Jonathan Narcisse from the Democratic gubernatorial primary isn't the good news for Chet Culver that it originally seemed. The gadflyish Narcisse has decided to run as an independent instead, and if he a) gets on the ballot and b) gets any votes, it seems likelier they might come from Culver's column than that of the GOP nominee (although he does talk a lot of shrinking government, so who knows).

• MD-Gov: Prince George's Co. Exec Wayne Curry has occasionally flirted publicly with the idea of a challenge to Martin O'Malley in the Democratic gubernatorial primary, and he's popping up with the idea again today. (O'Malley already faces a challenge from the right in the primary from former state Del. George Owings). Meanwhile, Dems are launching some pre-emptive salvos at possible GOP candidate Bob Ehrlich, accusing him of using employees at his law firm to do campaign work for him.

• NY-Gov, NY-Sen-B: Apparently there's been some behind-the-scenes pressure on ex-Rep. Rick Lazio to get out of the GOP governor's primary, where he's aroused little enthusiasm despite having the field to himself for months, and into the Senate race instead -- to clear the way for ostensibly prized recruit Steve Levy, the Suffolk Co. Exec who appears set to change parties and run as a Republican. Lazio says no way is he switching, though, assailing Levy as a liberal Democrat who called the stimulus package "manna from heaven."

• AZ-03: The John McCain/J.D. Hayworth primary fight is turning into one of the main fracture lines in the primary further down the ballot to replace retiring GOP Rep. John Shadegg. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring and Paradise Valley mayor Vernon Parker have both endorsed McCain, while former state Rep. Sam Crump backs Hayworth. Former state Sen. Pamela Gorman says she isn't getting involved.

• GA-07: Looks like GOP state Rep. Clay Cox is sitting in the catbird's seat, as far as replacing retiring Rep. John Linder. Not only did his main rival, state Sen. Don Balfour, drop out of the race (and out of politics altogether) yesterday, leaving Cox alone in the field, but now state Sen. David Shafer (who many initially expected to run to succeed Linder) gave Cox his endorsement.

• ID-01: This is terribly disappointing... ex-Rep. Bill Sali called a big press conference today, just before Idaho's filing deadline, to announce something, hopefully another kamikaze run to get his House seat back. (Or why stop there? Why not a primary run against Mike Crapo?) Unfortunately, it was just to endorse state Rep. Raul Labrador in the primary.

• MA-09: Is Stephen Lynch opening himself up to a primary challenge? Despite meeting personally with President Obama, he says that he is "firmly a 'no' vote" on healthcare reform. Lynch has always received strong support from labor, but with unions whipping this vote with unusual fervor, perhaps things might change on that front. (D) Here's one possible explanation for Lynch mugging for the cameras today... Lynch may be thinking about a challenge to Scott Brown in 2012; he sorta-deflected questions on that front.

• NC-08: Tim d'Annunzio, the self-funding Republican who gets treated as the frontrunner in the GOP field to challenge freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, just keeps on pulling hot-headed stunts that threaten his status as a credible candidate. D'Annunzio got into a physical confrontation with Republican state Rep. Justin Burr (no punching, just lots of poking) and then issued a press release attacking the state party chair, Tom Fetzer, for "coordinated personal attacks" in the wake of the incident.

• NY-24: Speaking of strategically-challenged "no" votes, it looks like the Working Families Party isn't bluffing on its threats to cut loose Rep. Mike Arcuri. They're actively recruiting a challenger to run against him on their own ballot line, and the SEIU is supportive of the effort.

• Fundraising: Here's a really interesting chart, which plots the DW/Nominate scores (i.e. ideological position) of Congress members against what sectors of the economy their contributions come from. The results aren't too surprising: motion pictures, professors, printing and publishing, public schools, and lawyers lean the most left (darned cultural elite!) and oil and gas, auto dealers, construction, energy production, and agriculture lean most right. Health care and real estate seem to be smack in the middle.

SSP Daily Digest: 3/10 (Afternoon Edition)

by: Crisitunity

Wed Mar 10, 2010 at 4:04 PM EST

• NV-Sen: Danny Tarkanian is charging Harry Reid with shenanigans, accusing him of putting Tea Party candidate Jon Ashjian up to running in the race. Tarkanian's proof? "No one in the Tea Party knows who he is. He didn't know the principles of the Tea Party." He's also accusing Reid's camp of picking Ashjian in particular because, like Tarkanian, he's Armenian, and that'll split the Armenian vote.

• OR-Sen (pdf):  A few people (perhaps those who've never heard of Rasmussen before) seemed caught off guard when Rasmussen found that Ron Wyden wasn't breaking 50% against law professor Jim Huffman. Wyden just released an internal poll via Grove Insight showing him in better position against Huffman: 53-23 (with 5% for the Libertarian candidate). He also polls almost the same against the state's top Republicans, who at any rate (with filing day having passed) won't be running against him: state Sen. Jason Atkinson (53-22) and Rep. Greg Walden (52-24).

• WA-Sen: The Hill has a little more... well, I'd hesitate to say detail, as that implies there's some substance there... on the prospect of a Dino Rossi run for Senate, with various anonymous GOP sources saying that Rossi's "thanks but no thanks" attitude has "changed in recent weeks," and that if there's a 1-10 scale of being likely to run for office, Rossi's at a 3.

• AL-Gov: Bradley Byrne, the Republican former state community colleges chancellor, got an endorsement from Jeb Bush, which may help shore up some more conservative votes in a primary that includes right-wing judge Roy Moore. Bush has been active on the endorsements front lately, giving his imprimatur to Wisconsin's Scott Walker and to John McCain as well.

• CA-Gov: This is kind of a strange media strategy: kicking out reporters for daring to do their jobs and ask questions of you at a scheduled appearance. It all seems to be part of the plan for Meg Whitman, though: silence from the candidate, and let the ads do the talking.

• HI-Gov: Recently-resigned Rep. Neil Abercrombie has a real race on his hands to get out of the Democratic gubernatorial primary: his main rival, Honolulu mayor Mufi Hannemann, just got the endorsement of the state's largest union, the ILWU (the Longshoremen). Abercrombie can still boast a new union endorsement of his own from the IBEW.

• MA-Gov: There seems to be a lot of smoke coming out from under the hood of Christy Mihos's campaign for the Republican gubernatorial nomination, as seen not only in dwindling poll numbers but now the departure of campaign manager Joe Manzoli. Manzoli claims to be owed $40K in back pay but says that wasn't the reason for his departure, while Mihos bounced a check from himself to his campaign fund in January.

• ME-Gov: Here's a jolt of life in the sleepy Maine governor's race, one of the least-noticed and least clear-cut races in the country. Bill Clinton weighed in, offering an endorsement to state Senate president Libby Mitchell in the Democratic primary.

• NY-Gov: One more snap poll on David Paterson's perilous political predicament today. It seems like there's been nothing but noise in these polls, with very wide-ranging responses on whether Paterson should resign or stay, but if you follow the trendlines from today's Quinnipiac poll back to the previous one, it looks like his position is stabilizing. 50% say he should stay, and 39% say he should resign (compared with 46-42 last seek), although is approval is still awful at 21/61.

• CT-04: One more Republican entrant in the crowded field to take on freshman Rep. Jim Himes in the 4th, with the entry of Easton First Selectman Tom Herrmann. First Selectman is analogous to mayor in Connecticut municipalities that are organized as towns, not cities, but in his spare time he's a managing director at a private equity firm (so presumably he has some money to burn). The GOP field in the 4th is dominated by state Sen. Dan Debicella and former state Sen. Rob Russo.

• GA-07: We won't have Ralph Reed to kick around - this cycle, at least. As expected, he won't run in the GOP primary to fill outgoing Rep. John Linder's seat. (D)

• NC-08: One other Republican campaign manager hit the trail, getting out of the seeming trainwreck that is the campaign of Tim d'Annunzio in the 8th. Apparently the leading candidate there by virtue of his self-funding ability, d'Annunzio made waves last month for wading into the comments section of the local newspaper - and now his former manager, Jack Hawke, seems to have had enough with d'Annunzio's lack of message discipline, with d'Annunzio storming off the stage during a recent candidate forum and also with his postings to the end-times-focused "Christ's War" blog.

• VA-11: Here's a warning flare from a race that's not really on too many people's radars: Rep. Gerry Connolly's first re-election in the 11th. His rematch opponent, home inspection firm owner Keith Fimian, is boasting of an internal poll (from McLaughlin) showing him beating Connolly 40-35. Considering that Connolly already beat Fimian by 12 points in 2008, while Barack Obama was carrying the 11th by 15, that's pushing the edges of credulity, but certainly indicates this race needs monitoring. (And of course, Fimian may not even survive his primary, where he matches up against Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity.)

• IL-Lt. Gov.: In an attempt to clear the smoke out of the back room, IL Dems have opened up their process for selecting a replacement lieutenant governor candidate. (You may recall that primary winner Scott Lee Cohen dropped out last month.) You can apply via email - and over 200 people have so far. (D)

• Filings: There's a little more on the Arkansas filings fail by the GOP: they left uncontested 8 of the 17 state Senate seats up for grabs, making it mathematically impossible for them to retake the Senate, and also left 44 of the 100 House seats and the Attorney General's race uncontested. Filing deadlines passed yesterday in Pennsylvania and Oregon, without any major surprises. In Pennsylvania, there weren't any last-minute entries in the Senate or Governor's races; the big story may be the LG race, with 12 different candidates, including a last-minute entry by Republican state Rep. Daryl Metcalfe. The Republican field in the 6th seems to have vaporized at the last moment, leaving Rep. Jim Gerlach opposed only by teabagger Patrick Sellers; Manan Trivedi and Doug Pike are the only Dems there.

In Oregon, there was a brief hubbub that Steve Novick might run for Multnomah County Chair, just vacated by newly appointed state Treasurer Ted Wheeler, but alas, it wasn't to be; he threw his support to County Commissioner Jeff Cogen for the job. Blue Oregon also looks at the state Senate and House landscapes; Republicans fared better here, leaving only 1 Senate race and 1 House race unfilled (Dems left 3 House races empty). Of the 16 Senate seats up this year, Dems are defending 12 of them, but a lot of them are dark-blue; the main one to watch is SD-26, an exurban/rural open seat being vacated by Rick Metsger (running in the Treasurer special election) where Dem state Rep. Brent Barton faces GOP Hood River Co. Commissioner Chuck Thomsen. (Dems control the Senate 18-12.)

• Fundraising: While we at SSP are often rather blunt about Congressional Dems' need to give to their campaign committees, at least they're doing a better job of it than their GOP counterparts. Reid Wilson crunches the numbers and finds out that Dem House members have given $15.7 million to the DCCC while GOPers have given the NRCC only $4.7 million. The disparity is greater on the Senate side, where Senate Dems have given the DSCC $2.6 million but the NRSC has gotten only $450K.

• Passages: We're saddened to report the death of Doris "Granny D" Haddock, the 2004 candidate for Senate in New Hampshire. Haddock was 100; she was 94 when she challenged Judd Gregg in his most recent re-election. She's probably best known for walking across the country to support campaign finance reform at the age of 89.

• Social media: Like Swing State Project, but does your head start to hurt after you get past 140 characters? Sign up to get SSP wisdom in its most condensed form, via our Twitter feed or on Facebook.

SSP Daily Digest: 2/11

by: Crisitunity

Thu Feb 11, 2010 at 4:21 PM EST

• FL-Sen: Continuing his role as right-wing kingmaker, or rainmaker, or rainy kingmaker, Jim DeMint orchestrated a moneybomb over recent days for upstart Florida candidate Marco Rubio that pulled in over $140K.

• SC-Sen: Attorney Chad McGowan, as close as the Dems have to a leading candidate to take on Jim DeMint this year, ended his campaign, citing family demands. It's possible, though, that McGowan's exit may lead to a slight upgrade (although not likely the kind that puts the race into play): Charleston Co. Commissioner Vic Rawl is now contemplating making the race, and self-financing Mullins McLeod is weighing a switch over from the gubernatorial bid where he's made little headway in a better-defined Democratic field.

• TX-Sen: It's looking less and less likely that the Texas Senate special election is ever going to happen (most likely, Kay Bailey Hutchison will wind up serving out the rest of her term in ignominy). If she does resign at some point, though, it doesn't look too promising for Democrats. PPP tested a generic ballot on the race, with Generic Republican winning 53-38. Former comptroller John Sharp may be in position to overperform Generic D a bit, but it'd still be an uphill climb. For one thing, he'd be running against Barack Obama's very low 33/61 approval in Texas.

• CT-Gov: Former state House speaker Jim Amann ended his bid for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination today. That he was even in the race may be news to most Connecticut residents, given his low-single-digits support in recent polling, and Ned Lamont and ex-Stamford mayor Dan Malloy gobbling up most of the oxygen.

• MI-Gov: In the wake of Denise Ilitch's surprising decision to stand down, a different Democrat got into the gubernatorial field: former state treasurer (from the 1980s) Bob Bowman. He's been out of state for a long time, most recently as the CEO of major league baseball's interactive media wing, but if he's willing to self-finance, he could be an interesting wildcard here.

• WI-Gov: Details are sketchy, but a Democratic internal poll by the Mellman Group finds a very tight gubernatorial race, quite in line with what other pollsters have seen. Democratic Milwaukee mayor Tom Barrett leads Republican Milwaukee Co. Exec Scott Walker 40-39. There's no word on a Barrett/Mark Neumann matchup.

• AL-05: Another catastrophic success for the NRCC, as they blasted their newest member with some friendly fire. Pete Sessions sent out a fundraising letter to AL-05 voters letting them know that their "Democrat in Congress has been falling in line with Nancy Pelosi's destructive liberal agenda.." One small problem: Parker Griffith is now, quite famously, a Republican.

• AR-01: Unlike the deeply troublesome KS-03 and LA-03, thanks to their deep Arkansas bench, Democrats don't seem to be having trouble finding a replacement to run for the seat of retiring Rep. Marion Berry. The latest to step up is state Sen. Steve Bryles, who represents Blytheville in this mostly-rural district's northeast corner.

• AZ-03: It looks like a big Democratic name may be interested in tackling the GOP-leaning open seat left behind by retiring Rep. John Shadegg, after all. Phoenix mayor Phil Gordon has opened up an exploratory committee to consider a run, and has set a three or four-week timetable for deciding. Democratic attorney Jon Hulburd is already running and has had some fundraising success as well, so it seems unlikely he'd get out of the way for the more conservative Gordon.

• CA-19: An internal poll by POS offered by state Sen. Jeff Denham shows the Republican candidate with a solid lead over his carpetbagging neighbor, ex-Rep. Richard Pombo. Denham leads Pombo 28-12 in the GOP primary, and that expands to 38-11 when voters were informed that outgoing Rep. George Radanovich has endorsed Denham.

• CA-44: Yet another internal poll, this one from Tulchin and released by Democratic challenger Bill Hedrick, who came within a few thousand votes of upsetting Rep. Ken Calvert in 2008. Calvert has lousy re-elects - 38% say 'yes' while 41% say someone else - but Calvert leads a head-to-head against Hedrick, 49-35.

• FL-21, FL-25: New names are already surfacing for potential candidates in the 25th, where Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart is creating an open seat by leaving for the somewhat safer 21st, vacated by his retiring brother, Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart. One name moving to the forefront is termed-out Republican state Sen. Majority leader Alex Diaz de la Portilla. However, it sounds like Mario plans to endorse state Rep. David Rivera (who's currently running for state Senate) instead. Two other possible GOP names include state Sen. Alex Villalobos, and Carlos Curbelo, currently an aide to Sen. George LeMieux. Joe Garcia, who came close to taking out Mario in 2008, seems to be the Dems' preferred candidate (although he previously ruled out a re-run, he might reconsider with an open seat).

• IA-01: Republicans landed Some Dude to run against Rep. Bruce Braley in the Dem-leaning 1st, a district which hasn't been on anyone's radar so far: insurance salesman Brian Cook. The NRCC had previously touted businessman Rod Blum for the race, but he says he's leaning against a bid.

• MA-10: Yet one more internal poll, and this one's a little alarming for Democratic Rep. Bill Delahunt, who nobody thought of as a target until his district went strongly for Scott Brown in the Senate special election. The McLaughlin poll on behalf of Republican former state treasurer Joe Malone gives Malone a 37-34 lead over Delahunt among likely voters. Delahunt is still in positive territory, approval-wise, at 44/33.

• MS-01: Maybe this is the oppo that insiders said would sink Fox News pundit Angela McGlowan's House bid before it got out of the gate. In a radio interview last year, she suggested that gun owners should include an inventory of their guns on their federal tax forms, and in defending the idea went on to talk about "crazies... stockpiling guns." Starting out in a probably gun-loving district with a proposal that wouldn't pass muster among House Democrats, and framing it with decidedly lefty-sounding language... well, that's probably a deal-breaker.

• NC-08: Free advice to candidates, not just Democrats but anyone: don't waste time worrying about what people are saying in the anonymous comments section of blogs. (And, yes, I realize the irony of that coming from an pseudonymous blogger.) But most of all, don't actually get so hot under the collar that you weigh in in the comments section and embarrass yourself in the process. Tim D'Annunzio seems to be the leading GOP contender in the 8th, thanks in large measure to his self-funding, but his recent foray into the comments section at the Charlotte Observer (to defend his machine-gun-shooting fundraiser) may have cast his candidacy in a decidedly amateurish light.

• OH-14: Here's a swing district that has consistently eluded Democrats, where they've finally nailed down a challenger. Retired judge Bill O'Neill is back for another whack at Rep. Steve LaTourette in the suburban 14th. O'Neill ran against LaTourette in 2008 and didn't get much traction that year, though.

• Census: Here's some good news on the redistricting front: the Census Bureau has given states the green light to decide whether to count prisons as part of the local population, or whether to count prisoners according to their previous place of residence. The Census will provide states with 'group quarters' information to help them with the process. That's an especially big deal in New York, where the legislature is considering legislation that would count prisoners by previous residence, which would decidedly tip the balance away from GOP-leaning rural areas and back toward the cities.

• Redistricting: Some bad news on redistricting, though, from South Dakota (although, with its at-large House seat, it'll really only have an impact on state legislative redistricting). A legislative committee shot down plans to switch to an independent redistricting commission. Democrats proposed the idea, and unsurprisingly, the plan died along party lines (not much incentive for the GOP to switch, as they control the trifecta and probably will for the foreseeable future).

• Dogcatcher: With Martha Coakley's announcement that she's going to attempt to run for re-election, the whole idea of getting elected dogcatcher is back on people's minds. You may recall we had an extended thread on the matter some months ago... and here's an interesting discovery. There's an actual place in America - Duxbury, Vermont - where it's an elective position. (H/t David Kowalski.) Zeb Towne's term expires in 2010, so we'll keep monitoring this race as events warrant.

SSP Daily Digest: 1/13

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jan 13, 2010 at 4:24 PM EST

• CO-Sen: Republican Senate candidate Jane Norton has finally realized that she might be her own worst enemy. Having reeled off a serious of gaffes and wtf? moments that were captured on tape in recent months (sitting silently while a speaker called Barack Obama a "Muslim," saying that Obama cares more about terrorists' rights than protecting the country, and just recently saying that government shouldn't be involved in health care at all), she's decided that, rather than stopping saying dumb things, the best approach is to have that nasty Democratic tracker banned from all her appearances.

• NY-Sen-B: Ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr. has gotten a green light of sorts (or at least a shrug of the shoulders) from David Paterson regarding a primary challenge, who said it was "OK" but that he might look for a different state to do it in. A new piece in the NYT today (who seem to have been interested in promoting his candidacy) may do Ford more harm than good, filled with details of helicopter flights and chauffeured cars that help paint him as an out-of-touch Wall Streeter, not exactly a position you want to run from these days (maybe most damning: "He has breakfast most mornings at the Regency Hotel on Park Avenue, and he receives regular pedicures. (He described them as treatment for a foot condition.)" Ford also might need to explain to the electorate when he decided that Kirsten Gillibrand was no longer acceptable; it turns out that he gave her $1,000 just seven months ago. Finally, with Ford making clear that he's going to run against health care reform, and awash in a history of pro-life pronouncements, PPP's Tom Jensen looks at New York exit polls and finds a way for Ford to get to 25% in the primary, but wonders where that other 75% is going to come from.

• PA-Sen: The Joe Sestak candidacy continues to have its desired effect: Arlen Specter just changed his position on the Dawn Johnsen nomination, and will vote for her confirmation, taking it to 60 votes. One possible unintended consequence, though: the more Sestak succeeds at pushing Specter to the left, the less opportunity for differentiating himself in (and thus a basis for winning) the Democratic primary.

• TX-Sen, TX-Gov: We have dueling rumors coming out of Texas, regarding Kay Bailey Hutchison. Fox's El Paso affiliate is reporting that KBH no longer plans to resign her Senate seat, either before or after the Republican gubernatorial primary. However, a spokesperson from the KBH camp is now saying that report is wrong, and she will resign only when the health care and cap-and-trade debates are over.

• AZ-Gov: A serious primary challenge just hit Arizona Governor Jan Brewer in the eye, like a big pizza pie. State Treasurer Dean Martin put an end to the speculation and officially announced his candidacy today. (There's still no report on whether CA-41's Rep. Jerry Lewis will offer his endorsement, or if their feud is still continuing.) While Martin is the highest-profile GOPer to challenge Brewer so far, he'll still have to fight his way through a crowd of other anti-Brewers, perhaps most prominently former state party chair John Munger.

• CT-Gov: It looks like the Republican gubernatorial field in Connecticut will be limited to Lt. Gov. Michael Fedele, rich guy Tom Foley, and now Larry DeNardis, a 71-year-old who most recently was president of the University of New Haven, but served one term in the U.S. House, representing New Haven from 1980 to his defeat in 1982. (Little known bit of trivia: the guy DeNardis defeated in that House race? Joe Lieberman.) State Senate minority leader John McKinney (who previously demurred from a CT-04 run) just reversed course and said he wouldn't run; state House minority leader Lawrence Cafero, another potential candidate, also recently said 'no.'

• IA-Gov: Here's an iceberg on the horizon for the seemingly unsinkable Terry Branstad campaign: poor relations with the state's religious right, coming to a head now with the prominent Iowa Family PAC endorsing rival Bob Vander Plaats and having unkind words for the insufficiently conservative Branstad, whom they won't endorse for the general even if he is the nominee. (Discussion underway in desmoinesdem's diary.)

• MA-Gov: A day after PPP polled him as a Democratic fill-in for Deval Patrick in the gubernatorial race, SoS William Galvin said that, no, he wasn't planning on launching a primary challenge against Patrick. Galvin, who's been SoS since 1994, instead said he might be interested in moving to AG, assuming Martha Coakley becomes Senator.

• SC-Gov: Well, that was kind of anticlimactic. L'affaire Sanford wrapped up today with a quick censure vote of Gov. Mark Sanford that passed the state House by a 102-11 margin.

• FL-25: A longer CQ piece on the House landscape in Florida has an interesting tidbit that suggests that former Miami mayor Manny Diaz, who would have been a top-tier contender in the 25th had he run, won't be running. Diaz has taken a fellowship appointment at Harvard's JFK School, which would probably preclude a run. After Democrats running strong in all three Cuban-American districts in 2008, it looks like free passes will be handed out this year.

• MD-04: All previous indications had been that a primary challenge from the right against Rep. Donna Edwards was a go, but instead Prince George's County State's Attorney Glenn Ivey had announced he won't pursue that. He'd also been linked with possible runs for county executive and state Senate, so his next step is uncertain.

• NC-08: PPP adds a little information from yesterday's poll of the 8th, which had freshman Rep. Larry Kissell comfortable against his GOP opposition. The possibility of a primary from the left, from attorney Chris Kouri, has been floated, but Kissell dispatches Kouri easily, 49-15. Only 29% of Democratic respondents in the district want Kissell replaced with someone more progressive, and 27% think Congressional Dems are too liberal vs. 12% who think they're too conservative, suggesting (in tandem with his general election strength) that his occasional breaks from the party line may be helping more than hurting him.

• NH-02: Gonna make you Swett! The long-rumored  candidacy by wealthy Lieberdem Katrina Swett may be finally getting off the ground, as an invitation to a Jan. 31 Swett event says "Come meet our next U.S. Congresswoman!"

• OH-02: After looking into the possibility of an independent run against Rep. Jean Schmidt and probably Dem nominee David Krikorian, now Surya Yalimanchili (aka that guy from "The Apprentice") says he'll get into the Democratic primary instead, saying that his focus on jobs and economic growth is better served there.

• SC-01: After renewed interest in the race following the retirement announcement of GOP Rep. Henry Brown, 2008 candidate Linda Ketner has finally decided against another run. She instead asked her supporters to take a look at Robert Burton, already an announced candidate. On the GOP side, state Sen. Larry Grooms, a frequent Mark Sanford nemesis, cut short his long-shot gubernatorial bid, boxed out by bigger names like Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster. This might presage a run in the still-developing GOP field in the 1st, but he said that's "unlikely" and he'd rather concentrate on the state Senate.

• TX-04: Add one more serious teabagger primary challenge to the ever-growing list, this time a challenge in the super-dark-red 4th to long-time Rep. Ralph Hall. Jerry Ray Hall (no relation, apparently) is throwing $350K of his own money into race in the fast-approaching March primary. It's unclear what his beef with the conservative other Hall is (he was a Democrat until 2004 - albeit the most conservative one in the House -- so that's probably good enough).

• VA-11: Rep. Gerry Connolly (by virtue of his Dem-leaning suburban district) still seems the safest of the three Virginia freshman, but things got harder for him with the entry of another GOP challenger: Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (who narrowly lost the race to become County Chairman after Connolly ascended to the House). Herrity still faces a primary against self-funding Keith Fimian, who lost big-time to Connolly in the open seat race in 2008 and won't get out of Herrity's way; Fimian may still be able to beat the better-known Herrity based on his big cash stash.

• WA-02: No one has really thought of Rep. Rick Larsen as vulnerable lately, as he dismantled his at-least-somewhat-touted Republican opponents in the last two elections in this D+3 district. Still, a long-time foe has taken a look at the more favorable Republican landscape and decided to take another whack at Larsen. John Koster (a state Rep. at the time) ran against Larsen and lost in 2000, when it was an open seat following Republican Rep. Jack Metcalf's retirement. Koster has spent most of the decade on the suburban Snohomish County Council (where he's currently the only Republican).

• Election results: A lot happened last night, most notably the upset victory by Democratic state Del. Dave Marsden in Virginia's state Senate district 37 by 317 votes, good for a pickup and a slightly bigger (22-18) Democratic edge in that chamber - which helps insulate against Bob McDonnell trying to Beshear the Dems back into the minority there. Also in Virginia, businessman Jeff McWaters held dark-red Senate district 8 for the GOP, defeating Democrat Bill Fleming by a 79-21 margin. Two other dark-red legislative districts (both made vacant because of Republican sex scandals) stayed in GOP hands, as California's AD-72 was held by Chris Norby, 63-31, and Tennessee's HD-83 was won 67-30 by Mark White. In New Hampshire, the field is now set in a potentially competitive general election to fill SD-16 on Feb. 16 (the swing district was vacated by GOPer Ted Gatsas, elected Manchester mayor). State Rep. David Boutin won the GOP nod; he'll face off against Dem state Rep. Jeff Goley. Dems can push up to a 15-9 edge with a pickup here.

NC-08: Kissell in Good Shape

by: James L.

Tue Jan 12, 2010 at 3:01 PM EST

Public Policy Polling (1/9-11, likely voters):

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 54
Tim D'Annunzio (R): 38

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55
Lou Huddleston (R): 37

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53
Harold Johnson (R): 39

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 55
Hal Jordan (R): 39

Larry Kissell (D-inc): 53
Generic R: 39
(MoE: ±3.6%)

This is a district that has, more often than not in recent history, leaned Republican. Al Gore lost it by 46-54 in 2000, and Kerry by 45-54 in 2004. Obama finally changed that in 2008, winning the CD by 53-47. In a year with a GOP tilt, you'd expect there to be some significant Democratic drop-off from that margin, and PPP does indeed find a more GOP-friendly electorate: this sample split their votes by a 48-48 margin in the '08 presidential race. Given the environment, I'd say that's a level of decline that Kissell would be willing to deal with.

Granted, Kissell is up against some opponents with pretty scant name recognition, but his margin against "Generic R" and his 45-30 approval rating should give him some comfort. If the Republicans are going to take back the House, they'll probably have to prioritize districts other than this one in order to get the job done.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

SSP Daily Digest: 12/16

by: Crisitunity

Wed Dec 16, 2009 at 3:59 PM EST

• AZ-Sen: A new poll from Republican pollster the Tarrance Group (paid for by Foundation for a Secure and Prosperous America, presumably on John McCain's behalf, as it also did anti-J.D. Hayworth message testing) shows McCain faring much better in a potential Republican primary against ex-Rep. Hayworth than a Rasmussen poll did last month; they have McCain beating Hayworth 56-36, and with a 78/20 favorable. Also, Grant Woods, a former Arizona Attorney General (and more significantly, a former McCain chief of staff) filed an FEC complaint against Hayworth, accusing him of using his talk radio bullhorn to promote his potential candidacy.

• CO-Sen: Former Lt. Gov. Jane Norton is facing something of a teabagger deficit, having been ordained as the GOP establishment's candidate. But she's trying to make up for that with some red meat that pleasantly surprised members of the hard right she was appearing in front of: she advocated eliminating the Dept. of Education. (Actually, maybe that should be described as green meat, considering how long that moldy idea has been sitting on the shelf. Ask President Bob Dole how that one went over.)

• CT-Sen: Ralph Nader reiterated his interest to the Princeton University newspaper (his alma mater) in running as a Green in the Connecticut race, saying he's encouraged by the nation's anti-incumbent mood. The netroots' other least favorite person, Joe Lieberman, is heading the opposite direction: aware that any hope of winning a Democratic nomination in 2012 vaporized this week, he's now making noises about seeking the Republican nomination instead. One other 2010 note: Barack Obama plans to appear on NBC's "WWE Tribute to the Troops" special to deliver a tombstone piledriver to Linda McMahon. Ooops, actually, it looks like he's just delivering a holiday message to the troops.

• IL-Sen: It looks like all that pandering to the right wing is finally paying off for Rep. Mark Kirk; he got $5,000 from the Koch Industries PAC (Koch is one of the biggest funders of the right, including of operations like Freedom Works and the Cato Institute). It also got him a brief bit of praise from Sarah Palin via Twitter, after months of tugging at her sleeve for help. Erick Erickson still isn't buying what Kirk is selling, though, saying in his usual understated manner that Kirk "will knife [conservatives] in the chest with a smile once he gets to D.C."

• NV-Sen: This ought to just further rev up right-wingers who view former state GOP chair and former Miss New Jersey Sue Lowden as a RINO in the making. Turns out she claimed to be pro-choice when representing a Dem-leaning state Senate seat in the 1990s, while today she's claiming Roe v. Wade is a "bad decision." One more flip-flop that'll have to be dealt with, just like her previous support of Harry Reid.

• NY-Sen-B: Suffolk County Legislator Jon Cooper had been making noises about a primary challenge to Kirsten Gillibrand for many months, but apparently a face-to-face meeting with her was more than satisfactory to him, and he came out of it with an effusive endorsement of Gillibrand instead. And while we discussed the possibility of a William Thompson primary yesterday on the front page, there were also some other numbers from yesterday's Siena and Quinnipiac polls. Quinnipiac tested out Rudy Giuliani numbers, and found that on the off chance he runs, he'd beat both Gillibrand (50-40) and Thompson (52-36). Siena went with a whole bunch of permutations, finding Gillibrand losing to Giuliani 49-42, but beating ex-Gov. George Pataki (46-43) and Port Commissioner Bruce Blakeman (52-22). Thompson loses to both Giuliani (56-34) and Pataki (49-36) but beats Blakeman (40-23). They even tried out an improbable-looking GOP primary, finding Giuliani at 57 and Pataki at 26, followed by ex-state Sen. Michael Balboni at 7, Liz Feld at 6, and Blakeman at 4.

• SD-Sen: John Thune can consider himself safe for next year. He beats a Generic Dem 56-33 (fitting, since no one is running against him yet), and has approvals of 57/35. The only cloud on his horizon is that his constituents don't want him to run for President, by a 28/55 margin.

• FL-Gov: Rasmussen threw in a Florida gubernatorial race general election question to their Senate race sample (which leads to the question: are there going to be Meek/Crist and Meek/Rubio numbers forthcoming?). They find that Republican AG Bill McCollum has a small lead over Democratic CFO Alex Sink, 44-39, but that Sink has more room to grow (24% have no opinion of Sink vs. 16% for McCollum).

• KS-Gov: That didn't last long: the Kansas Dems thought they finally had a decent gubernatorial candidate in retired businessman Tom Wiggans, but he just ended his infant campaign. He cited trouble fundraising, although recent bad press about a settlement by his pharmaceutical company probably helped prompt his move too.

• NY-Gov: That same Quinnipiac sample also took a look at the New York Governor's race, finding a la Siena, that the resurrection of David Paterson (from DOA to slightly less DOA) continues apace. They find Paterson beating Republican ex-Rep. Rick Lazio, 41-37, and with an approval of 40/49 and favorable of 38/44. Paterson shouldn't break out the champagne, though, as he still loses a primary to Andrew Cuomo, 60-23, and Cuomo goes on to beat Lazio 62-22.

• CT-05: The former occupant of the 5th, ex-Rep. Nancy Johnson, endorsed state Sen. Sam Caligiuri to try and take the seat back for the GOP. The awkward part is, Caligiuri's primary opponent Justin Bernier is still touting Johnson's endorsement of him too. Johnson said that she did in fact back Bernier -- up until the moment Caligiuri (her 2002 campaign co-chair) got into the race.

• FL-08: I'm a little confused here, because it seemed like the GOP was desperately casting about for any sort of elected official to go up against Rep. Alan Grayson for a long time, and finally settled on businessman Bruce O'Donoghue... but now that all that sturm and drang is over, state Rep. Kurt Kelly says he's likely to get into the race against Grayson. Kelly's name rarely appeared on the list of potential candidates, leaving me to wonder why the NRCC didn't express any interest in him and whether they'll continue to back O'Donoghue here.

• HI-01: Hawaii may try something new in the wake of the realization that it doesn't have the money to hold a special election to replace resigning Rep. Neil Abercrombie. Elections officer Kevin Cronin says that he can't fight that feeling anymore that Hawaii may have to follow the lead of the northwestern states and conduct an all mail-in ballot. Meanwhile, ex-Rep. Ed Case isn't wasting any time; he's already hitting the airwaves with his first TV spot.

• KS-03: Despite party efforts to coalesce behind state Sen. Nick Jordan, we've definitely got a contested GOP primary in the open seat in the 3rd. State Rep. Kevin Yoder confirmed he's getting into the race.

• MD-01: What is this, the 80s? The NRCC is actually pulling out the "soft on crime" card as they road-test different lines of attack on freshman Rep. Frank Kratovil. Kratovil made his name as the Queen Anne's County state's attorney (and escaped previous "soft on crime" attacks last year in his first matchup against state Sen. Andy Harris), so they're trying to hit him on his strengths.

• NJ-07: One swing district with a freshman GOPer where the Dems have had no luck filling out their dance card is the wealthy suburban 7th. Without an elected officials interested in the race, Dems are looking at cumbersome-named Dem fundraiser Zenon Christodolou to go up against Rep. Leonard Lance.

• NY-23: A month after the fact, we finally have our official count from the special election in the 23rd (hence our finally calling our predictions contest!). Bill Owens got 73,137 votes (48.3%) to 69,553 (46.0%) for Doug Hoffman and 8,582 (5.7%) for Dede Scozzafava; the final count brought Hoffman a little closer.

• NC-08: With a lot of liberals feeling burned by freshman Rep. Larry Kissell's voting record since getting into the House, there's actually talk of a primary challenge happening. Chris Kouri, who ran for the seat in 2002 and surprised a better-known Dem in the primary before losing the general to Robin Hayes, is being courted by some in the district for another run. Kouri is the general counsel for the Lowe's Motor Speedway.

• PA-06: State Rep. Curt Schroder got an endorsement from a once-prominent conservative, ex-Rep. Bob Walker, a key Newt Gingrich henchman back in the day as well as an Elmer Fudd lookalike. Walker used to represent part of Chester County, much of which was contained in the 16th under the 1990s map. That didn't deter one more no-name Republican from getting in the already-crammed field: geologist Walt Hufford, who sits on the board of the Pennsylvania Environmental Council and plans to run as a moderate.

• TN-01: Get ready for Roe v. Davis, part III. Ex-Rep. David Davis, narrowly beaten by Rep. Phil Roe in a GOP primary in this dark-red district in 2008, says to Politico that he's "strongly leaning" toward another matchup.

• TN-06: State Sen. Jim Tracy has a slight problem that could hurt him in his GOP primary in the open seat race to succeed Bart Gordon: in the 1990-2002 time period, he voted in six Democratic primaries (Tennessee voters can crossover in primaries) and only two GOP primaries. Of course, Tracy offers the defense that, in that part of the state, there was nothing to vote for but Democrats back then, but that's more grist for the teabagger mill as other candidates (like Lou Ann Zelenik) seek to woo the hard right.

• Retirements: A little more followup on the retirements front, in the wake of our front-page post yesterday: Rick Boucher and Allen Boyd have now confirmed with party leaders that they, too, will be back for re-election next year. (No surprise on Boyd, as he's already hitting the airwaves in his primary fight.) Lincoln Davis also reaffirmed his commitment, saying he's "running come hell or high water," and also saying he's not worried about the specter of GOP-controlled redistricting in 2012, saying he can't be put "in any more conservative district." (SSP's crack team of redistricters may disagree with him on that one!)

• House: Nancy Pelosi seems to be getting fed up with the Senate in many ways, and one smart way she's fighting back is saying that the House won't be going first on the tough votes anymore, and that she'll act on potentially divisive issues like EFCA and immigration reform only after the Senate has hashed it out. She has to be concerned with shielding her most vulnerable members from voting on tough votes like HCR and cap and trade only to see the legislation head into purgatory in the Senate.

SSP Daily Digest: 8/28

by: Crisitunity

Fri Aug 28, 2009 at 3:24 PM EDT

• LA-Sen: David Vitter dodged rumored challenges from Suzanne Terrell, Tony Perkins, and John Cooksey, but his luck may yet run out. Retired Lt. General Russel Honore, who has a high profile from his role in leading forces tasked with rescuing Katrina victims, says he's leaning toward running in the GOP primary. Honore, a Creole African-American who lives near Baton Rouge, says he's been a Republican since the Reagan era. A tough primary might be just what we need to soften up Vitter before loosing Charlie Melancon on him.

• MA-Sen: The Massachusetts Secretary of State says that Gov. Deval Patrick has two choices as to the timing of the special election to fill Ted Kennedy's seat: A Dec. 8 primary and a Jan. 19 general, or a Dec. 15 primary and a Jan. 26 general. (D)

• NV-Sen: If this is meaningful, and not just cloud talk -- that Harry Reid is going on record as saying health care reform must contain a public option, which moves us that much closer since (as best as I can tell) he's the person with primary responsibility for how to merge the (good) HELP and (probably crappy) Finance Committee bills into one -- we may have Danny Tarkanian and Susan Lowden to thank for passage of a public option. Facing suddenly perilous re-election prospects in the polls, Reid may be realizing that he's going to need strong on-the-ground union support to stay in office in 2010, and that he's not getting anything but tepid support from them without a decent reform package.

• AR-Gov: There was a second phase to PPP's Arkansas poll that showed Blanche Lincoln looking weak for re-election, with some details about the 2010 gubernatorial race. If there's one governor in the country who doesn't have much to worry about it, it's Democrat Mike Beebe, who has 63/17 approvals and beats prospective GOP challenger state Rep. Allen Kerr 55-24.

• AZ-Gov: Arizona's Republican Gov. Jan Brewer, still getting her feet wet in the gube office, says that she's "leaning toward" running for a full term in 2010. Despite having a rough time with the state legislator with her proposed tax increases, Brewer says that she "loves being governor, and I love campaigning". (J)

• GA-Gov: Rep. Nathan Deal doesn't seem to be getting much traction in the Georgia Governor's race, but now there are some nasty allegations out that may further dim whatever luster he once had. Apparently he intervened with Georgia state officials, lobbying them to preserve an obscure state program on inspection of rebuilt salvaged vehicles. Deal owns co-owns a salvage company that provides the location for these inspections, a company from which he personally earns up to $150,000 a year. Deal personally lobbied the state Revenue Commissioner against opening the program up to competitors instead of preserving his monopoly.

• SC-Gov: State lawmakers are apparently getting ready to hold a special session of the legislature to impeach and remove Gov. Mark Sanford. Meanwhile, an Insider Advantage poll says 50% of South Carolinians think Sanford should resign. (D)

• IA-05, IA-Gov: Rep. Steve King has ruled out a run for Governor and will run for re-election to the House again. While having been mentioned as a possible candidate earlier in the year, shortly after gay marriage was legalized in Iowa, he hadn't shown much interest lately. Looks like it's Terry Branstad (who's still making up his mind) or bust for the Iowa GOP.

• IL-14: Rotta the Huttlet Ethan Hastert won't have the GOP primary to himself in his attempt to revenge the Hutt Hastert family name. Mark Vargas, a former Dept. of Defense official in Iraq, former Kane County Young Republicans chair, and briefly, an aide in the elder Hastert's district office, said he'll run too.

• MT-AL: Best wishes for a speedy recovery for Rep. Denny Rehberg, who is listed in stable condition after being injured in a boating accident on Flathead Lake at some point between 10 pm and midnight last night.

• NC-08: Republicans finally have a candidate to challenge freshman Democrat Larry Kissell this year, but it's not anyone with a track record of electoral success. Retired Army Col. Lou Huddleston, who won 38% of the vote in an unsuccessful state House campaign last year, announced yesterday that he'll seek the GOP nomination to challenge Kissell just a week after ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and former Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory passed on the race. Republicans seem to hope that Huddleston, who is African-American, will chip some support away from Kissell in the district's sizable black community. Good luck with that. (J)

• ND-AL: A Republican has stepped forward to take on entrenched Blue Dog Earl Pomeroy in North Dakota. Paul Schaffner currently is an insurance salesperson and has no electoral experience, but may have some residual name rec from his stints as football player at NDSU and assistant coach at local Jamestown College and Univ. of Mary.

• NYC-Mayor: SurveyUSA has a new poll of the Democratic primaries in New York City, which closely match the Quinnipiac findings earlier this week. For the Dem nod in the mayoral race, Comptroller William Thompson leads city councilor Tony Avella, 48-13. Ex-Public Advocate and former mayoral candidate Mark Green has a big lead at 38% in the Public Advocate primary.  City councilor Melinda Katz leads the Comptroller field at 27%.

NC-08: McCrory Won't Challenge Kissell

by: James L.

Thu Aug 20, 2009 at 5:43 PM EDT

A rendezvous at a Concord barbecue joint Tuesday helped change the political outlook in North Carolina's 8th Congressional District.

Former Republican U.S. Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory met to talk about next year's House race. As the two sipped Diet Cokes, Hayes asked McCrory the question he'd asked before: Would the mayor run?

No, McCrory replied.

"It was obvious that he wasn't going to do it now," Hayes said, "so I needed to get out of the way and let the primary develop so we can win the general election."

McCrory is staying publicly mum for now, but the Charlotte Observer reports that he's told "party insiders" not to expect a race out of him. McCrory likely would have been the strongest possible candidate the GOP could cough up here, but it looks like it's back to the drawing board for the NRCC.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

NC-08: Hayes Won't Seek Rematch

by: James L.

Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 2:14 PM EDT

A day after saying his plans were "undetermined," former U.S. Rep. Republican Robin Hayes said today he won't run for congressional seat he lost last November.

"I'm going to do everything I can to help recruit and finance and give what experience and assistance I can to make sure that that person - and it's not going to be me - is properly prepared," Hayes told News 14.

This is good news for Kissell, who is not known as an energetic fundraiser (and likely will never be), in that Hayes could always be counted on to cough up a few million bucks to lend to his own campaign. I'd still expect Kissell to get a serious challenge, but it at least it will be from someone whom he can probably compete with at a more even financial level.

Outgoing Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, possibly the strongest nominee the GOP could muster here (though, he doesn't live in the district), is still not committing to a run.

RaceTracker Wiki: NC-08

SSP Daily Digest: 8/19

by: James L.

Wed Aug 19, 2009 at 7:26 AM EDT

• FL-Sen: Add another pair of names to the ever-growing list of possible interim Senators under consideration to be appointed by Florida Gov. Charlie Crist. Crist will interview state Rep. Jennifer Carroll, the sole African-American Republican in the Florida legislature, and University of North Florida President/ex-Jacksonville Mayor John Delaney today.

• IL-Sen, IL-Gov: Businessman Chris Kennedy, whose interest in running for office next year appeared to be on the wane in recent weeks, announced yesterday that he won't run for the Democratic gubernatorial or Senate nomination next year. That leaves the Senate primary in the hands of state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias and Chicago Urban League President/ex-Blagojevich aide Cherlye Jackson; the gubernatorial nomination is set to be an expensive fight between incumbent Pat Quinn and Comptroller Dan Hynes.

• MD-01: GOP state Sen. E.J. Pipkin, who helped play spoiler in last year's House primary that saw the defeat of incumbent Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, is staying coy about a possible run against Democratic frosh Rep. Frank Kratovil in 2010. Pipkin says that he'll make a decision "relatively soon", but reminds us that the definition of "relatively soon" is highly flexible. National Republicans are currently closing ranks around the man who screwed the pooch for Team Red last year, state Sen. Andy Harris.

• NC-08: NRCC recruitment chair Kevin McCarthy is continuing his magical mystery tour of the nation, and is currently scouring the great state of North Carolina in the hopes of wrangling a few challengers in Dem-held districts, including one to challenge class of '08 member Larry Kissell. McCarthy says that he doesn't think the party will fall back on ex-Rep. Robin Hayes, but Hayes himself still says his plans for 2010 are still "undetermined".

• NV-03: The NRCC has finally found its huckleberry to challenge freshman Rep. Dina Titus in the Las Vegas suburbs. John Guedry, a former VP at Nevada's City National Bank, filed his statement of candidacy this week to try his hand at this D+2 district. While DC Republicans seem content to run the neophyte Guedry, he may face a contested primary from former Clark County GOP chair Brian Scroggins.

• NY-15: State Sen. Bill Perkins is denying reports that he's planning on challenging longtime Democratic Rep. Charlie Rangel in a primary contest next year, saying that a run for Congress is "not on the agenda" right now. Roll Call rattles off a small band of local officeholders who might be interested, though, including NYC Councilwoman Inez Dickens, state Assemblyman Adriano Espaillat, Councilman Robert Jackson, Assemblyman Adam Clayton Powell IV and Assemblyman Keith Wright.

• SC-Gov: The crowded race for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination in South Carolina got slightly leaner this weekend when state House Minority Leader Harry Ott terminated his candidacy. Yesterday, he announced that he's endorsing state Senator Vincent Sheheen for the nod.

• UT-Gov: Newly-installed Republican Gov. Gary Herbert faces a special election next year for the right to earn the remainder of Jon Huntsman, Jr.'s term, but the path to get there just got a little bit clearer. Kirk Jowers, a prominent Utah political scientist who had lined up the support of several powerful state legislators (as well as an estimated $6-8 million campaign budget), announced yesterday that he won't challenge Herbert at next May's GOP nominating convention. Herbert could still face a challenge from a number of candidates highlighted by CQ, including two state senators, John Valentine and Steve Urquhart, and state House Speaker David Clark.

• WI-03: Roll Call takes a look at the potential field that could emerge if Democratic Rep. Ron Kind bails from the House in order to run for Governor next year. While state Sen. Dan Kapanke is already in the race for the GOP, he could have company in the Republican primary from state Rep. Michael Huebsch and state Rep. Kitty Rhoades. For the Democrats, the early favorite for the nomination appears to be state Rep. Jennifer Shilling, a La Crosse-area pol with some significant fundraising prowess.

NRCC Puts 70 Dems on Notice

by: James L.

Mon Aug 03, 2009 at 10:42 PM EDT

That's a big fat, honkin' list of incumbents, including several that haven't seen a competitive race in years -- or ever (Boren, Skelton, the Arkansas delegation, Matheson, Pomeroy, Kind, and Boucher, to name just a few). Many of these races probably won't produce competitive contests, but there's absolutely no downside for the NRCC to be putting these incumbents on notice -- not only will the targets being painted on these members' backs have the potential to affect legislative votes, it helps to promote the idea that the NRCC is preparing for a big wave in their favor in 2010. (One thing's for sure, if we have to worry about David Effin' Wu next year, we'll be preparing for life in the minority again.)

Now, what makes a challenger "legitimate", you ask? That's a good question. I define legitimacy as something that must be earned -- whether it's through an electoral track record or a demonstrated ability to fundraise (or self-fund), or some combination of both. In other words, just because the NRCC has met with some random businessman and asked him to challenge his local congressman, it doesn't mean that the challenger has established himself as legitimate until he's coughed up a quarterly filing with the FEC. Let me put it this way: for every Richard Hanna (the guy who nearly beat Mike Arcuri last year), there are a dozen or more Luke Pucketts or Carl Mumpowers. It's just a lot harder at this point in the game to separate the wheat from the chaff, so our methodology is not to list a challenger without a record of electoral success as "legitimate" until they have demonstrated their ability to raise the dough. (And no, raising phat loads of cash through BMW Direct, like Bill Russell does in PA-12 does not count as a legitimate means of fundraising in our book.) The NRCC would no doubt disagree pretty strongly with my chart in some places, but I already feel that I'm being overly generous by granting OR-04 candidate Sid Leiken, who has had some pretty severe fundraising difficulties, "legit" status.

So, many of these districts marked with an "N" have challengers that have yet to prove the merit and mettle of their respective candidacies. There's no doubt that many of these Ns will turn into Ys by the time the year's over, but the GOP still has a lot of work to do. The GOP also has a stock of credible candidates considering bids in many of these "unchallenged" districts (FL-08, LA-03, and VA-05, in particular), so some of these holes will be easier to fill than others.

Also interesting is who is not listed on such an expansive list as this -- guys whom the NRCC spent a lot of time targeting last cycle like Joe Donnelly (IN-02), Jim Marshall (GA-08) and Ciro Rodriguez (TX-23) stand out as conspicuous absences, especially considering the number of extreme longshots thrown into the mix.

SSP Daily Digest: 7/23

by: Crisitunity

Thu Jul 23, 2009 at 2:41 PM EDT

• NH-Sen: It looks like Ovide Lamontagne is going full speed ahead on a run in the New Hampshire Senate primary, with his path, be it as it may, gaving gotten easier with fellow renegade Fred Tausch dropping out. He hired two key members of the Mitt Romney camp: Charlie Spies, who was the Romney campaign's CFO, and Jim Merrill, who managed Romney's NH campaign.

• NV-Sen: Here's another bad sign for John Ensign: his chief of staff, John Lopez, just bailed out. The timing, with Ensign facing fallout over trying to cover up an affair with a staffer, probably isn't coincidental.

• PA-Sen: In the wake of yesterday's ominious Quinnipiac poll, Arlen Specter has retreated to the last refuge of troubled politicians: attacking the poll's composition. (Hey! That's our job!) Nate Silver re-ran the numbers using the actual 2008 party split (D 44, R 37, I 18) and found it really didn't make much difference: 46-43 in Specter's favor. Meanwhile, a popular new activity among Democratic party bigwigs in Pennsylvania is telling Joe Sestak to shut up; both Allegheny Co. party chair Jim Burn and Philly-area official Penny Gerber took loud exception to implications from the Sestak camp that they were backing him.

• AK-Gov: Two Democrats both officially announced their candidacies to run, presumably, against Sean Parnell in 2010: state Senator Hollis French, and former Dept. of Administration Commissioner Bob Poe. Former state House Minority Leader Ethan Berkowitz also says he'll officially become a candidate in late summer or early fall.

• MN-Gov: Democratic State Rep. Paul Thissen announced his candidacy for Minnesota's governor today. Hard to see, though, how a state Representative stands out in a field that seems to contain every major politician in the state.

• CA-10: EMILY's List finally got involved in the special election in CA-10. As you'd expect, they're backing Assemblywoman Joan Buchanan, who as the only woman in the race has a definite shot to sneak through while the better-known male candidates (Lt. Gov. John Garamendi and state Sen. Mark DeSaulnier) split the vote.

• IL-10: A new Roll Call piece on IL-10 adds a few more names to the potential primary fields. For the Dems, Highland Park City Councilor Jim Kirsch may get in. And for the GOP, it sounds like state Sen. Matt Murphy is now thinking about running here; he's currently running for Governor, in a crowded field of second-stringers, and might stand better odds here.

• NC-08: Lou Huddleston, an African-American veteran and defense industry consultant, may wind up being the GOP's candidate against Larry Kissell; after having visited Capitol Hill for some wooing, he says he'll decide by Labor Day. (His one attempt at elective politics was a losing campaign for a state House seat in 2008.) Some bigger names, including ex-Rep. Robin Hayes and Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, haven't ruled the race out yet, though.

• NJ-03: The Burlington County GOP is saying that moderate state Sen. Diane Allen (who'd been on the short list for Chris Christie's Lt. Gov. pick) is now their top choice to run against freshman Rep. John Adler. Interestingly, this is the same organization that basically torpedoed her interest in running for the open seat in 2008, leaving more conservative Chris Myers (and presumably less electable) to run instead. Allen is still sounding non-commital, especially since the party leadership in more conservative Ocean County continues to sound lukewarm about her.

• NY-23: The Conservative Party isn't at all pleased with the selection of socially liberal Assemblywoman Dede Scozzafava as the GOP's candidate in the NY-23 special election. State party chair Mike Long said that likely Democratic candidate Darrel Aubertine actually has a more "palatable" record. The Conservatives plan to run their own candidate on their line, he says, and party activist Jim Kelly has expressed interest.

• OH-02: This is good news: the Democrats actually found an honest-to-gosh state Representative to go against Rep. Jean Schmidt: Todd Book. David Krikorian, who got a sizable share of the vote as an Independent in 2008, is already running as a Democrat in the primary, but looks like he's getting shoved over: Governor Ted Strickland has already endorsed Book. (Book is from Strickland's hometown of Portsmouth.)

• SC-01: A Georgetown restauranteur, Robert Dobbs, announced he'll run for the Democrats in SC-01. He has electoral experience... but in Wisconsin, where he was a Manitowoc County Supervisor. (Although I hope it is, I assume this isn't the "Bob" Dobbs.) Other more prominent Democratic figures, like state Rep. Leon Stavinrakis, are also considering the race.

• SC-03: Former Cincinnati Bengals coach Sam Wyche, who led the Bengals to the Super Bowl in 1989, is considering running as a Republican for the open seat in the 3rd, vacated by Gresham Barrett, running for Governor. Wyche isn't a total newbie to politics, as he's currently serving on the Pickens County Council. He'd bring a lot of name recognition to the field, where state Representative Rex Rice is probably current frontrunner. (Democrats are unlikely to strongly contest this freakishly red district.)

SSP Daily Digest: 7/15

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jul 15, 2009 at 2:32 PM EDT

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, last heard from calling Chuck Schumer "that Jew" when he couldn't think of his name, had something of a reprise yesterday, referring to African-American federal judge Brian Miller as "this new minority judge." Don't confuse Hendren with other GOP candidate Curtis Coleman, who's the one who thought you should "get shots" before going down to southeast Arkansas.

• IL-Sen: Mark Kirk -- who's had some past problems with the space-time continuum -- has pinned down a date for announcing his Senate candidacy: Monday the 20th. Meanwhile, he's been lunching with his would-be colleagues among the Senate Republicans at their weekly policy luncheon.

• NV-Sen: Both the Nevada GOP and minority leader Mitch McConnell sound more than a little uncomfortable with the idea of John Ensign running for re-election in 2012. Meanwhile, Nevada's other Senator, Harry Reid, pulled down $3.25 million last quarter, a very large haul indeed for someone who can't count on mommy and daddy to write him a big check.

• NY-Sen-B: Two more endorsements for Kirsten Gillibrand in the face of a potential primary with Rep. Carolyn Maloney, both of which ought to help her with the Democratic wing of the Democratic Party: Planned Parenthood's political wing, and, reportedly, Howard Dean himself. Latest fundraising reports point to Gillibrand doubling up on Maloney, both in terms of 2Q results and cash on hand.

• MN-Gov: Dems dodged a bullet in Minnesota: former GOP Rep. Jim Ramstad (of MN-03) announced that he won't run for governor in 2010, either as a Republican or (as sometimes rumored) for the Independence Party. The likable and generally moderate Ramstad would have been probably the toughest foe the GOP could have put up. (Norm Coleman is better known, of course, but not very well-thought-of anymore, if that recent PPP poll is any indication.)

• NC-Gov: PPP took a look at Bev Perdue's job approvals halfway through her first year in office, and, well, let's just say we should be glad she isn't up for re-election in 2010. Her approvals are now 25-55, down from a high of 44% in March. PPP says that's the worst individual performance of anyone they've polled this year except for Roland Burris!

• CA-47: Shades of Tom McClintock, anybody? GOP Assemblyman Van Tran, who's running against Loretta Sanchez in the 47th (and had a good fundraising quarter, pulling down $250,000), has just filed the paperwork to run for State Senate in 2012. Considering that the State Senate (and its term limits) can't really be seen as a promotion from the U.S. House, could this be a sign of how confident Tran is about the future of his challenge to Sanchez?

• FL-10: In the wake of Mike Castle's tepid fundraising numbers, a similar number leaps out from the Bill Young camp: he only raised $50,155 last quarter (with $437K CoH). Is retirement on the horizon? Of course, his Dem challenger, state Sen. Charlie Justice, hasn't been burning up the charts either, with an $86K quarter.

• NC-08: Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory is getting his name out there, perhaps while testing the waters for an NC-08 run, CQ observes. He's joining Americans for Prosperity (a group that's been linked to the teabagging movement) on their "Patients First Tour" in several North Carolina cities (including a stop in Wingate, which is in the 8th).

• PA-06: No surprise: with Rep. Jim Gerlach officialy out (and in the gubernatorial race), next-in-line state Rep. Curt Schroder officially got in the race to be the GOP nominee in the 6th. On the Dem side, Doug Pike seems to be marching unopposed to the nomination; rather than seeing other Dem candidates jump in now that Gerlach finally hit 'eject,' he's starting to score some endorsements, starting with Rep. Patrick Murphy from the nearby 8th today.

• OH-???: This is kind of strange way to drum up publicity, but former Sen. Mike DeWine has announced that next week he'll announce his campaign plans for "statewide office," without specifying which one. Attorney General seems likely, since John Kasich already has a firm grasp on the governor's race. Does Ohio have a statewide "dogcatcher" position?

• AL-St. House: In a special election last night, Dems lost an open, Dem-held state House seat in the Huntsville area (the same area where they lost a special election for a Dem-held open state Senate seat earlier this year). The seat was open because state Rep. Sue Schmitz was forced to resign because she was convicted of fraud, so this race kind of had a pall over it from the beginning. GOPer Phil Williams beat Dem Jenny Askins 60-39; this cuts the Dem advantage in the House to 61-44.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/29

by: Crisitunity

Mon Jun 29, 2009 at 3:06 PM EDT

• MN-Sen: Despite the fact that Tim Pawlenty (not running for re-election, but probably running for the Big Show in 2012) is now answerable to the nationwide GOP base rather than to all Minnesotans, he's not going to obstruct the all-but-inevitable seating of Al Franken. He confirmed on CNN that he'll certify Franken if Norm Coleman loses his Minnesota Supreme Court case.

• NC-Sen: While former state Sen. Cal Cunningham is making some senatorial noises, he says that he won't commit to a timeline on getting into the race, saying only that he'll make a "timely decision."

• AL-Gov: We're up to six Republican gubernatorial candidates now; Bill Johnson, the state director of Economic and Community Affairs, resigned his post on Friday and declared his candidacy. Despite his statewide position, Johnson seems like kind of an odd duck; he was the Libertarian candidate for U.S. Senate in Missouri in 1994.

• SC-Gov: The behind-the-scenes battle is heating up between Mark Sanford and his Lt. Governor and possible successor (either via resignation or the 2010 election), Andre Bauer. Bauer's would-be opponents (who would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes into the election as an incumbent) are already dusting off old lines of attack from his LG primary campaign in 2006, that Bauer is too much of a fast-driving, plane-crashing party boy and not sufficiently conservative. (Bauer's spokesperson does some very strange pushback in this article, seemingly protesting too much that Bauer is merely a "red-blooded American male" and "straight.") The New York Times details efforts by Bauer's camp to exert pressure on legislators to pressure Sanford to resign (which came to public light when Bauer's camp inadvertently contacted an ally of potential 2010 rival AG Henry McMaster).

Meanwhile, State Rep. Nikki Haley has been encouraging Sanford not to resign (which he says he won't do) -- on the surface because she was one of Sanford's few legislative allies even before the scandal, but at this point, more importantly because she's also running in 2010 and would be at a disadvantage if Bauer comes in as a one-year incumbent. She has also issued a statement "fear[ing] for the conservative reform movement" if Bauer takes office. Similarly, McMaster seems reluctant to launch criminal investigations into Sanford -- again, the subtext being that would make Sanford's immediate replacement by Bauer likelier.

• WI-Gov: Here's an interesting rumor: Gov. Jim Doyle may be in line to take over as the next head of the Peace Corps. Not only would this spare us a 2nd re-election run by Doyle, who's been posting mediocre poll numbers, but, assuming he resigns to take the new post, it would give Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton the chance to run in 2010 with a year of incumbency under her belt.

• AL-05: Despite earlier reports that the GOP was happy with their recruit to run in AL-05, businessman and local GOP "minority outreach" coordinator Lester Philip, they've recruited a higher-profile figure to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith. Madison Co. (location of Huntsville) Commissioner Mo Brooks said he'll formally enter the race this week.

• CA-11: After first flirting with the CA-10 special election and then flirting with the idea of running against Rep. Jerry McNerney in CA-11 in 2010, Contra Costa Co. Sheriff Warren Rupf declared that he isn't running for Congress, period. Rupf, in fact, basically gave Congress the middle finger, saying his values "don't line up with the fringes of either party and compromising my values or my priorities is a price I am not willing to pay."

• CA-24: The DCCC has been cajoling Peter Jim Dantona, a local political consultant, to get into the race against longtime Rep. Elton Gallegly in the 24th. Dantona proved his bona fides by almost winning a seat on the Ventura Co. Board of Supervisors in a heavily Republican district. (Another consideration is the possibility that Gallegly, who's tried to retire before, may turn this district, which Obama won 51-48, into an open seat if faced with a stiff challenge.)

• CA-50: A Francine Busby fundraiser in a supporter's backyard turned into a bit of a melee when the police were called over a noise complaint, ending with the party's 60-year-old host getting pepper-sprayed and arrested when she wouldn't give the police her name and date of birth.

• FL-24: GOP State Rep. (and former mayor of Port Orange) Dorothy Hukill announced her interest in taking on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas. The NRCC was already highly touting Winter Park City Commissioner Karen Diebel in this race, so it'll be interesting to see if Hukill is doing this on her own, or if the NRCC kept looking after pre-emptive Dem attacks on Diebel's stability may have damaged Diebel.

• MI-03: Rep. Vernon Ehlers, who's 75, sounded a little ambivalent about running for another term in 2010. Roll Call does some interesting dot-connecting: Ehlers and SoS Terri Lynn Land are friendly, and her sudden jump out of the governor's race, where she looked competitive, may have something to do with her getting some insider information on MI-03 being available instead.

• NC-08: The GOP is still wondering what to do about a challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell. Oddly, their first choice is a rerun by former Rep. Robin Hayes, who looked clueless en route to losing in 2008 by over 10 points. (Hayes is still considering it, but also helping to recruit other candidates.) Another possible (and more ominous) contender, who hasn't ruled it out, is Charlotte mayor Pat McCrory, who lost the 2008 gubernatorial race and will be looking for something else to do after his seventh mayoral term ends this year. Union Co. District Attorney John Snyder was also cited as a possible GOPer.

• NE-02: Rep. Lee Terry seems to be under a lot of stress lately, as seen by his recent F-bomb-laced freak-out when trying to cross the street in Washington.

• Fundraising: Just a friendly reminder: the fundraising quarter ends tomorrow. If there's a candidate out there who you want to give some early momentum to, now's the time to contribute.

SSP Daily Digest: 6/23

by: Crisitunity

Tue Jun 23, 2009 at 3:01 PM EDT

• FL-Sen: I predicted yesterday that billionaire Tom Golisano's interest in the Florida senate race wouldn't last long, and now it doesn't even seem to have ever existed. He let the Buffalo News know today that he'd never publicly expressed any interest, and that nobody (starting with Politics1, where the rumor started) ever called to ask him about it before launching the story.

• ME-Gov: After months of nothing happening in the Maine governor's race, now we have two candidates. Democratic State Rep. Dawn Hill, who represents part of York County and owns a dog day care in her spare time, announced she's in the race. She may be a long shot in the primary against former AG and former state House speaker Steve Rowe, who quietly filed his candidacy papers last week.

• FL-09: Our condolences to the family and friends of Phyllis Busansky, who died unexpectedly last night. She ran a solid race in FL-09 in 2006, and was elected Hillsborough County's Supervisor of Elections in 2008.

• NC-08: With the NC GOP trying to recover the fumble on their attempts to recruit Carolina Panthers star Mike Minter to go up against freshman Rep. Larry Kissell, a new possibility has emerged: former state Rep. Mia White (who was Mia Morris while in the legislature). She's been pretty far out of the loop lately, though... she has been living in Singapore, where she's been American politics commentator for what she called their equivalent of CNN.

• NY-23: One more Republican has declared his interest in the open seat in the 23rd, who wasn't on anybody's watch list: veterinarian Gary Cooke. In a dairy-heavy district, Cooke seems primarily focused on farm issues.

• OR-04: Springfield mayor Diamond Joe Quimby Sid Leiken has already run into some trouble in his nascent campaign against Rep. Peter DeFazio: he's the subject of a campaign finance complaint from Democrats. Leiken paid $2,000 to a company called P&G Marketing and Research for "surveys and polls," but no such firm exists and the address is the same as his mother's real estate business. While Leiken didn't return calls on the matter, Leiken's campaign manager said that he has receipts for all of the campaign's expenditures... except for this one.

• PA-03: You know your campaign wasn't meant to be, when the first mention your campaign gets in the press is your Facebook announcement that you're dropping out of the campaign. The GOP's lone challenger against freshman Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper, social studies teacher Brian Lasher, dropped out, leaving the GOP without a candidate, although businessman Steve Fisher is still thinking about it. Hard to fathom the GOP giving up without a fight in such a traditionally swingy district.

• Cal-St. Ass.: Fresno-area Assemblyman Juan Arambula left the Democratic caucus yesterday to become an independent, supposedly over budget issues (although water issues may be a major subtext). This tips the balance to a still comfortable 49-29-1 for the Democrats, but with Arambula gone they're now five votes short of the 2/3s necessary to do anything useful with the budget. Arambula is term-limited out in 2010, so the fallout is contained.

• Demographics: Nate Silver has, as always, a fascinating graph as part of a piece on changing migration rates in the last few years. Migration from blue states to red states has slowed significantly in recent years, probably because of the economic slowdown. The plus side is that this may salvage a few Democratic House seats in 2010.

SSP Daily Digest: 5/26

by: Crisitunity

Tue May 26, 2009 at 1:53 PM EDT

• OK-Sen: Insiders seem to believe that Tom Coburn is going to opt for re-election to the Senate, despite his public unenthusiasm. Potential successors Reps. Tom Cole and Dan Boren both told the Oklahoman that they're confident he'll run again.

• FL-Sen: He hadn't sounded likely to run even before Charlie Crist got into the race, but Rep. Ron Klein finally made it official that he won't run for Senate and will run for re-election instead. If state Sen. Dan Gelber jumps to the AG race, that leaves only Rep. Kendrick Meek alone for the nomination. (H/t Senate Guru.)

• IL-Sen: With the Republicans steeling themselves for the possibility that Rep. Mark Kirk doesn't come to save them in the Senate race, they're starting to coalesce around an unexpected Plan B: Steve Preston, who was the HUD Secretary during the last year of the Bush administration. Preston has never been elected before, and "Bush cabinet" isn't exactly good resume material these days, but he would at least bring fundraising connections to the table.

• NY-Gov: Ed Cox, a Manhattan lawyer best known for being Richard Nixon's son-in-law, is considering the New York Governor's race. He's a behind-the-scenes guy (he ran the McCain campaign in New York and may run for the next state GOP chair), but may emerge from behind the curtain to run if Rudy Giuliani doesn't get into the race. Also, Siena has another poll (PDF) of both the Gov & Sen races, but little has changed except for a drop in support for gay marriage.

• NC-08: The NRCC's plans to mount a high-profile challenge to freshman Rep. Larry Kissell in the 8th just got intercepted. Mike Minter, former Carolina Panthers safety who's never run for office but is well-connected among local megachurchers, declined to run after a lot of wooing. (I could have said Minter punted, but that wouldn't have made as much sense.)

• AL-05: The Republicans did land an African-American candidate to run against freshman Rep. Parker Griffith in the Huntsville-based 5th, though, albeit a lower-profile one. Lester Phillip is a navy veteran who's currently the state GOP's "minority outreach director."

SSP Daily Digest: 5/14

by: Crisitunity

Thu May 14, 2009 at 2:09 PM EDT

• TX-Sen: The last thing John Cornyn wants is a special election on his watch at the NRSC, but he may get one anyway. Despite his pressure on fellow Texan Kay Bailey Hutchison to remain in place while she runs for Governor, Cornyn is now publicly warning to expect her resignation "this fall sometime."

• PA-Sen: Seems like the GOP is going through its whole Rolodex looking for someone more normal than Pat Toomey to run in the Pennsylvania primary. Two of the more moderate members of the Keystone State's House delegation, Charlie Dent and Todd Platts, felt compelled to announce today that they won't be running. Dent, in fact, endorsed Toomey, the previous holder of PA-15 (making him the first PA House GOPer to endorse Toomey).

• AR-Sen: State Senator Kim Hendren, the GOP's only candidate so far against Blanche Lincoln (and they may want to keep looking...), has been in politics a long time (one claim to fame is that he lost a gubernatorial race to Bill Clinton). But now he actually seems to be caught in a timewarp from a different century. Today he's trying to walk back having called Chuck Schumer "that Jew" (and, in doing so, tried using The Andy Griffith Show by way of explaining himself).

• IL-Sen: Speaking of shifts in the space-time continuum, Mark Tiberius Kirk's end-of-April deadline on announcing his Senate plans has seemingly disappeared into a wormhole, while the GOP waits impatiently for him to emerge at the other end. (No backup date for a decision has been set.) A likely explanation is that he's waiting to see what Lisa Madigan does, and he may meekly go wherever she doesn't.

• SC-Gov: Who would've guessed that the South Carolina governor's race would be one of 2010's hottest tickets? Two more GOPers are trying to hop onto that ride: state Senator Larry Grooms, who officially launched a campaign, and state Rep. Nikki Haley, who now says she's considering it. (Haley is a young rising star who's a close ally of Mark Sanford and the hardcore anti-taxers.) They'd join Rep. Gresham Barrett and professor Brent Nelsen, as well as likely candidates Lt. Gov. Andre Bauer and AG Henry McMaster, in the hunt for the GOP nod.

• NC-08: Freshman Rep. Larry Kissell has drawn a potential opponent with no previous political background, but very high name rec: Mike Minter, who was safety for the Carolina Panthers for 10 years until recently retiring. Kissell handily beat incumbent Rep. Robin Hayes in 2008 in this now R+2 district, but Minter, who's still scoping out the race, is well-connected in the local megachurch community and could also eat into Kissell's African-American support. Minter is apparently looking with Hayes' encouragement, suggesting that the 10-year Congressman is looking to spend more time with his money instead of seeking out a rematch.

• NRSC: Here's a double shot of John Cornyn news: in another one of his occasional reality-based moments, Cornyn slapped down strange remarks by his NRCC counterpart, Rep. Pete Sessions, alleging that Barack Obama is intentionally sabotaging the American economy. When asked if he was comfortable with Sessions still leading the NRCC, Cornyn equivocated, deferring the judgment of the House Republicans on the matter. (Because "judgment" and "House Republicans" always go together so well.)

NC-08: Kissell Takes the Lead in New PPP Poll

by: James L.

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 3:29 PM EDT

Larry Kissell (D): 51 (39)
Robin Hayes (R-inc): 46 (44)
Thomas Hill (L): n/a (4)
(MoE: ±2.5%)

This marks the first time that Kissell has been ahead in a PPP poll (and check out the ridiculously low MoE -- PPP hit up over 1,500 respondents for this one). It's really starting to look like he'll actually pull this off, despite lackluster fundraising and poor campaign budgeting. I suppose that's the difference that $1.8 million from the DCCC makes.

Bonus findings: Obama leads McBain by 51-46 in this district, while Hagan leads Dole by 51-42, and Perdue leads McCrory by 47-46.

NC-08 Kissell Up on Hayes in New Poll

by: blue south

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 3:27 PM EDT

This is significant not because its the first poll to show Larry ahead, but because it is the first by PPP, and one of the first truly independent of the both the campaign and the DCCC!

This is a huge poll(PDF), with a massive sample.

Kissell (D) 51
Hayes (R-inc) 46
moe +/- 2.5%

1589 voters, taken between October 25th and October 27th, therefore with a margin of error of 2.5%

Larry leads by 5, 51 to 46!  Thats right, Larry is OUTSIDE the margin of error.

For our other candidates in the area, Obama is up 6 right now in a district that Bush won by 8.  Hagan Leads by 9 and Perdue leads by 1 within the district.  Considering how much of this district is in the Charlotte media market that is not a bad result for Perdue.

33% of the sample has already early voted and amongst those people are margins are even better.

Amongst early voters Obama leads 61 to 37, Perdue leads 56 to 42, Kay leads 61 to 36 and Larry Kissell leads 60 to 39!

This is down to the final days.  Can you help put Larry over the top?

Please remember, this isnt just about a Democrat, this is about a better Democrat.  A progressive from a rural Southern District.  A mill worker against a Mill Owner.  And someone who posts on DailyKos and BlueNC versus someone who said that Liberals Hate people who work hard.

NC-08: Robin Hayes, Scumbag

by: DavidNYC

Wed Oct 22, 2008 at 12:16 AM EDT

Rep. Robin Hayes (R-N.C.) has conceded that he did tell a North Carolina crowd that "liberals hate real Americans that work and accomplish and achieve and believe in God," even though he initially denied making such a statement.

Now he says he didn't mean it that way and he was just trying to rev up a campaign rally.

"I genuinely did not recall making the statement and, after reading it, there is no doubt that it came out completely the wrong way. I actually was trying to work to keep the crowd as respectful as possible, so this is definitely not what I intended," Hayes said in a statement for Politico.

The comments were first reported by the New York Observer. When Politico linked to the Observer story on Monday evening, Hayes' spokeswoman Amanda Little called and denied the report. Observer reporter Jason Horowitz told Politico he stood firmly behind the story. Politico left the quote in The Crypt blog but added the Hayes denial.

On Tuesday, two more reporters and two other witnesses confirmed the quote, but Little continued to deny it, calling the story "irresponsible journalism." Little said she had just as many sources who would deny it, including Hayes' staff and Rep. Patrick McHenry (R-N.C.), who spoke before Hayes.

Needless to say, Patrick McHenry is a scuzzbucket, too.