Looks like state senator Alan Nunnelee is planning on making the run. Given Nunnelee's lackluster performance in the state senate, I don't see how he could possibly say he's going to effect change in the Washington spends money. It'll make for a competitive race given that he and Rep. Childers are from the same neck of the woods.
After a couple-week hiatus, I'm back to Episode 11 of my redistricting series! On tap for tonight's episode: a magnolia founds the next world empire! Or, rather, I've paired two unlikely diary neighbors, New York and Mississippi.
There were a number of people who earlier asked me why I hadn't yet covered New York, one of the obvious choices for an early redistricting diary. The reason is that back in March I drew a map for NY that assumed Jim Tedisco would win NY-20 and be primed for elimination in 2012. Just tonight I redrew New York to, on the contrary, make the 20th more Democratic to help Murphy (though the news wasn't all good, and I'll get to that momentarily).
Whatever the make-up of the 111th Congress, no one will be able to say that Democrats didn't try everything in their power to reach a 60-seat majority. As of the spring of 2008, there already were eight highly competitive seats that no one would be surprised to see turn-over: With Virginia and New Mexico all but lost for Republicans (and Senator Ensign acknowledging just as much), the GOP is in grave danger in New Hampshire, Colorado, Alaska, Mississippi, Oregon and Minnesota. On the other hand, Republican attempts to go on the offensive have been disastrous, with only Louisiana looking competitive.
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47 (47)
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48 (46)
(MoE: ±4%)
Musgrove still pulls even with Wicker despite having a poorer favorability rating (47-43 to Wicker's 56-32), probably due to Musgrove being better known as a former Governor. Still, Wicker has begun putting his healthy cash-on-hand lead to good use by airing ads in Southern Mississippi, where he is largely unknown.
Here's a bright spot from the poll which might give us hope for Mississippi's future: Voters between ages 18-29 favor Musgrove by a whopping 68-27 margin. Wow. Conversely, voters 65 years and older prefer Wicker by a 60-34 margin. Let's hope that Barack Obama's candidacy can energize young Mississippians.
Bonus finding: Speaking of Obama, McCain still only has a 50-44 lead in Mississippi.
UPDATE: (by Crisitunity) The same poll also covered incumbent R Thad Cochran vs. ex-state rep. Erik Fleming in MS-Sen-A (the regularly scheduled Senate election). No surprises: Cochran is up in that one, 59-32.
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.
So let's tally 'em up. Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.
However, in the "too good to be true?" file, Rasmussen's same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.
In the state's other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.
This past Monday, when former Governor Ronnie Musgrove traveled to Gulfport, Miss., to announce his campaign for the U.S. Senate seat recently vacated by Senator Trent Lott, he stood on the property across from the harbor . . . and totally missed the boat.
Not once did his speech utter the phrase Katrina recovery. Not once did his speech mention insurance reform. Not once did his speech tell Mississippi’s Katrina survivors that he intends to work shoulder-to-shoulder with Congressman Gene Taylor, our much beloved local hero, to pass Taylor’s ground-breaking insurance reform legislation, which is now awaiting action in the US Senate. Not . . . one. . . word. Nope. None. Nada. Zero. Zilch.
Former Gov. Ronnie Musgrove is making it official -- he will run for the Senate against his old roommate Roger Wicker:
Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove confirmed to The Associated Press on Friday that he will run for the U.S. Senate.
Musgrove plans to hold a series of news conferences Monday in Tupelo, Jackson, Hattiesburg and Gulfport.
"I'll be announcing, yes," Musgrove told the AP in a telephone interview from his law office in Madison County.
With Mike Moore off the table, Musgrove is probably the next best bet, and the early polls that we've all seen confirm that he still has a significant level of support in the state. Will it hold up in a federal election?
This will be an interesting race to watch -- whenever it's held.
Local activists in Mississippi are hoping to make Mike Moore's decision whether or not to run for the US Senate a little easier by launching a draft effort. In the interest of disclosure, I helped out with the technical aspect of launching the site, but it's really the work of the local grassroots on the ground in Mississippi.
John Leek, editor of Mississippi political blog Cotton Mouth, is spearheading the effort and had this to say: "Mike Moore has been a tireless advocate for justice, both in his public capacities as District Attorney and Attorney General, and in his private practice where he represents those denied legitimate insurance claims as a result of Hurricane Katrina. It is this sense of compassion and integrity that our nation so desperately needs today, and Mike Moore will carry those values to the US Senate."
With Mississippi's Democratic Secretary of State Eric Clark concurring with Haley Barbour's bizarre reading of the state's electoral laws, the state Democratic Party is gearing up for a fight with Barbour, who wants to delay a special election until November 4th of next year.
Will Mississippi Dems have any fighters to help them out? It looks like they have one in the state's top law enforcement officer, MS Attorney General Jim Hood:
Gov. Haley Barbour (R) has called the contest for Nov. 4, 2008, the date of the next regularly scheduled general election. But Democrats - in particular Mississippi Attorney General Jim Hood - contend that state law requires the special election to be held 100 days after Lott resigns, should the Senator stick with his stated plan to relinquish his seat by Dec. 31.
Hood is not ruling out legal action.
"We will decide what to do if and when it becomes necessary," Hood said in a statement provided to Roll Call on Tuesday, in response to an inquiry about whether he plans to sue Barbour to change the election date. "We fully expect the governor will follow the law."
Good. This is one fight I look forward to winning.
