My campaign manager recently drafted a letter to discuss the electability of my candidacy. Recently, we had a strong showing at the gubernatorial caucuses, stunning the pundits who said we didn't have a chance.
As the Chief Author of the Minnesota Health Plan, I've helped organize over 70 signers onto the bill, including several of my opponents in this primary race. If I have the opportunity to serve as Minnesota's next Governor, I will push for real changes. That is my promise to you. We will see real change!
I look forward to hearing any questions, comments or concerns relating to the electability of my candidacy and addressing them directly.
please see my following response to President Barack Obama. I'd love to hear what you think. Imagine having a governor who fights to put in single-payer healthcare! Imagine the example that Minnesota could provide for the other 49 states? In my 23 years in the state senate, I've fought for healthcare for all. As the prime sponsor of the Minnesota Health Plan, I've helped organize over 1/3rd of the legislature to co-sponsor the bill.
A special election is being held today in MN State Senate district 26 to replace Republican State Senator Dick Day who resigned to become a Lobbiest for the gambling Industry (don't get me started).
Senate District 26 leans Republican, McCain carried it 50-47, Norm Coleman 43-36-21. Still there is hope, the two State House Reps in the district are Democrats (each Senate district in Minnesota is divided into two house districts).
The Candidates are Democrat Jason Engbrecht, a college physics professor and Faribault School Board member. Republican teabagger and bussinessman Mike Parry. Independence Party member and Waseca mayor Roy Srp (yes that is his last name).
If you want more background on the candidates I suggest you check out a fine local blog, bluestempairie.
To win Engbrecht will have to run up the margin in Rice County, especially the City of Faribault (his hometown). I would guess he will needs at least a 10 point margin in Faribault and 5 points in Rice County as a whole. Engbrecht will have to keep it within 3-5 points in the rest of the District.
The real wildcard is the Independence Party candidate Roy Srp. He is a 3 term mayor of Waseca (3rd largest town in the District) and has more political experiance than either of the major party candidates. Waseca also happens to be the hometown of the Republican Parry. I don't think Srp can win without any Party machinery behind him but you never know.
Fellow progressives, my name is John Marty; I am entering my 24th year in the Minnesota Senate, where I have fought for social and economic justice since day one.
In the Senate, I've championed LGBT rights (I am chief author of marriage equality legislation), I've fought for government ethics reform, I've designed and authored single-payer healthcare (www.mnhealthplan.org), I've taken on powerful interest groups to protect our environment, and I've championed legislation to get living wage jobs and move our economy forward. We now have over 70 co-authors on my single payer legislation -- over a third of the legislature!
I am a Democratic candidate for Governor in 2010 running on true progressive principles, like Senator Paul Wellstone, principles that I hold with deep conviction. In 1994, I was the DFL nominee for governor, but like many other progressives running that year, the Gingrich Revolution and his "Contract ON America." made our attempts unsuccessful."
Never wavering from my progressive principles, we've established viability with a team of supporters focused on reclaiming the governorship. With our election, we can have a national impact across this country.
Imagine a governor with the courage to break the insurance industry's grip on our health care system, passing single payer. Imagine making healthcare a right, not a privilege.
Just imagine what the national implications would be! Imagine the precedent we would set for Democratic Party candidates throughout this country to have a genuine, principled progressive as governor of a state.
Imagine a governor who puts LGBT marriage equality, ethics reform, living wages for workers, and environmental protection, front and center on the state's agenda.
Over next several months, I will reach out here and on other blogs across the country to keep you updated about our campaign. Please take a minute to read this recent column I wrote about the need for political courage. Feel free to share it with friends.
Thank you and I look forward to reading your comments below.
I'm not saying there aren't plenty of 2010 candidates that need our help. (There are! Please help!) I'm just saying that helping our previous progressive winners to close their books and retire their debts could encourage other Democrats currently running to follow in more progressive footsteps, knowing we have their backs.
I'll leave you with a few reasons to be very, very proud of Senator Al Franken's first months as a U.S. Senator (and very, very motivated to help retire his campaign debt):
I did none of this with a computer program or anything like that. i was fortunate that MN provides all the info I needed to do this with the MnSOS office providing all the vote totals and also precinct maps of every state house seat, which was the main way I broke down the districts by vote and population when I didnt need to break it down to city/township/precinct level. The state legislature websites has excellent maps with the two I used constantly were a map of the all the state house seats that also showed city boundaries which made it my go to map for figuring out my planned geography. More importantly though, a precinct map of the entire state showing election results from dark red to dark blue. I found county population totals for 2007 and when they broke down beyond that point, I wikipediad it which sometimes included 2006 estimates but mainly for 2000 totals and then I used common sense for population movements, figured out the percentage of growth for that county/area, etc to figure out the 2007 population of said city/precinct. There is certainly some error involved in this but nothing that would alter more than a couple precincts here or there and then my map accounts for current population movement as opposed to 2000, little bit of a trade off there.
Everything is recorded in excel spreadsheets, they look like a hot mess.
Since I live here in Minneapolis, MN and am addicted to Dave's Redistricting App, I decided to try my hand at redistricting MN two different ways, first, assuming we lose a district and second, assuming we do not lose a district. The 7 district plan is below and should produce a 6-1 DFL map, or at worst a 5-2. The 8 District Map could be 7-1, but will be 6-2 once Peterson retires I think.
I'm very much a compactness kind of guy, but that doesn't mean you can't get a good Democratic Gerrymander with a compact map. The Maps and district descriptions are below the fold:
Here is another Democratic gerrymander. I chose Minnesota because the majority of the poll voters picked it. For those of you who voted for Georgia, that is my next state. For Minnesota, a gerrymander like this is possible but it could be a long shot. This would only happen if the Democrats retain the State Legislature and capture the Governorship. I drew this map assuming that Minnesota would lose one electoral vote. I probably was able to create a 6-1 Democratic map even though there is a chance it might be a 5-2 Democratic map. My main objectives were to keep all Democrats safe while weakening Republican Erik Paulsen of the 3rd district and combining Republicans John Kline and Michelle Bachman. They are both so Conservative so at least we can knock away one of them. The pink lines are the boundaries of the old districts. Here is the link to my maps http://frogandturtle.blogspot.com
District 1 Tim Walz (D) Blue
Even though I would have loved to strengthen Walz but I could do that because I needed enough Democratic counties to protect Collin Peterson (D) in the 6th district. Anyway, this district is pretty much the same as it is except I took in Democratic leaning Rice and Lincoln Counties as well Le Suer and part of Goodhue County. Le Suer and Goodhue are both marginal. I probably raised the Obama performance in the district by just a bit. I estimate that Obama won 52% to 53% of the vote here. The racial stats are 91% White. Status is Likely Democrat.
District 2 John Kline (R) vs. Michelle Bachman (R) Green
I have heard some talk from Republicans about combining Minneapolis and St. Paul into one district. I bet they did not consider that the Democrats could combine most of the Republican suburban areas into one district. I strengthened the 2nd district's Republican performance by adding more Republican territory near St. Cloud and removing Rice County. McCain probably won only 55% of the vote here so a strong Democrat could possibly make it competitive. Michelle Bachman's home Stillwater is in the district. The 2nd district contains part of her old 6th so she will probably choose to run here. John Kline is more entrenched so he will probably win, forcing Michelle Bachman to finally get out of Congress. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Republican if Kline wins, Likely Republican if Bachman wins.
District 3 Erik Paulsen (R) Purple
I know one thing about this district; Paulsen is in for a tough race with this district. He was elected in 2008 so he had almost no time to become entrenched into his district. To weaken him, I removed part of western Hennepin County, put in the most urban parts of Washington County and added some heavily Democratic areas in Minneapolis. Paulsen won by eight points in 2008 against Ashwin Maida, an impressive candidate. This definitely drops the chances of clearly knocking off Paulsen but with some new territory, it should be much easier. Obama won 56%-57% of the vote here. Racial stats are 8% African American, 6% Asian and 81% White. Status is Toss Up/Tilt Democratic.
District 4 Betty McCollum (D) Red
Her district looks very different from the one she has now. I had to unfortunately extend it out into the Republican suburbs because of population loss and the elimination of Michelle Bachman's district. Her district extends all the way out to St. Cloud now. Ramsey County gave Obama a margin of 96,000 votes and the part McCollum has Obama probably pulled out a 75,000 vote margin there. The suburban part of the district probably gave McCain a 15,000 vote margin. A 60,000 Obama margin should be enough to protect McCollum. If Bachman decided to run here, she would probably not win. Obama probably won 59% of the vote here. The racial stats are 6% African American, 6% Asian, 6% Hispanic and 79% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 5 Keith Ellison (D) Yellow
Even though I slipped in part of the old 3rd district, Keith Ellison should have no worries. Minneapolis will keep him safe and sound. Obama probably won here with 68%-72% of the vote. Racial stats are 10% African American, 8% Hispanic, 5% Asian and 73% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 6 Collin Peterson (D) Teal
Even though I have tried to strengthen every Democrat here, I had to weaken Peterson a bit. I took away a few northern Counties that lean Democratic and added some of Stearns and Sherburne Counties which lean Republican. I may have compensated for those counties by adding a touch of Minneapolis. Weakening Peterson should not hurt him much. He is a moderate Democrat who is the chairman of the Agriculture Committee and has been representing the 7th district since 1991. He should be safe even though McCain probably won 51% of the vote here. Racial stats are 90% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
District 7 James Oberstar (D) Gray
This district has slow population growth so I had to extend it to the North Dakota border. The counties there lean Democratic so the new additions do not alter the 7th district's political leanings much. It would not matter how many Republicans are here because Oberstar has represented this district since the 1970's. He creamed former Senator Rod Grams when he ran for House in 2006. No question about it, Oberstar is safe. Obama probably received 56% of the vote here. Racial stats are 93% White. Status is Safe Democrat.
The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.
