Today and yesterday's Census data dump is of three states that didn't gain or lose seats but will need some internal adjustment to reflect population movement from the cities and the rural areas to the suburbs: Minnesota, New Mexico, and Tennessee. (It also included three states with at-large seats that we won't need to discuss: Alaska, Montana, and North Dakota.)
Minnesota barely made the cut for retaining its eighth seat (13,000 fewer people statewide and it would have lost it), which you can see in its very low new target: 662,991 per district. (That's up from about 615K in 2000.) Despite the fact that Michele Bachmann lives there, people keep pouring into MN-06 in the outer-ring suburbs and exurbs to the north, west, and east of the Twin Cities. Only it and MN-02, taking in the southern suburbs/exurbs, will need to shed population, giving part to the rural 1st and 7th, and part to the urban 4th and 5th (and suburban-but-boxed-in 3rd). With split redistricting control, look for the parties, if they're able to agree, to settle on incumbent protection.
Talk of moving the college town of St. Cloud, currently in MN-06, into MN-08 (which would enable Tarryl Clark to run there) may be premature, as MN-08 gained enough population that it can remain about the same. In fact, the fact that it did so may say a lot about last year's election; the 8th's growth has been happening at its southern end, where the MSP exurbs begin and where new Rep. Chip Cravaack hails from, and the population growth in this area has outpaced losses in the dark-blue Iron Range to the north, Jim Oberstar's traditional turf.
District
Rep.
Population
Deviation
MN-01
Walz (D)
644,787
(18,204)
MN-02
Kline (R)
732,515
69,524
MN-03
Paulsen (R)
650,185
(12,806)
MN-04
McCollum (D)
614,624
(48,367)
MN-05
Ellison (D)
616,482
(46,509)
MN-06
Bachmann (R)
759,478
96,487
MN-07
Peterson (D)
625,512
(37,479)
MN-08
Cravaack (R)
660,342
(2,649)
Total:
5,303,925
New Mexico's target is 686,393, based on staying at three seats (up from 606K in 2000). Not much change needs to happen between the districts; the largely rural NM-02 will need to gain some population, probably from the southern suburbs of Albuquerque in NM-01. New Mexico has become appreciably more Hispanic over the last decade, though maybe not as dramatically as the other three border states (California, Arizona, and Texas), moving as a state from 45% non-Hispanic white and 42% Hispanic in 2000 to 40% non-Hispanic white and 46% Hispanic in 2010. That means that, since 2000, it has become the first state with a Hispanic plurality. The movement was fairly consistent among districts, with the 1st going from 42% to 48% Hispanic, the 2nd going from 47% to 52% Hispanic, and the 3rd going from 36% to 39% Hispanic (the 3rd, though, is the least-white of the three districts, thanks to an 18% Native American population, which stayed consistent over the decade).
District
Rep.
Population
Deviation
NM-01
Heinrich (D)
701,939
15,546
NM-02
Pearce (R)
663,956
(22,437)
NM-03
Lujan (D)
693,284
6,891
Total:
2,059,179
Tennessee stays comfortably at nine seats, and its new target is 705,122 (up from 632K in 2000). It, like Minnesota, has seen a big population shift from cities and rural areas to suburbs and exurbs, as seen in the huge growth in the 6th (which half-circles Nashville on the east) and the 7th (a thin gerrymander that hooks up Nashville's southern suburbs with Memphis's eastern suburbs). In particular, western Tennessee, both in the city (TN-09) and the rural areas (TN-08) were hard-hit, with the 8th barely gaining and the 9th outright losing population. The GOP controls the redistricting process for the first time here, but with them up 7-2 in the current House delegation (and with Memphis unfixably blue), look for them to lock in current gains rather than getting aggressive with TN-05 (seeing as how Nashville could be cracked into multiple light-red urban/suburban districts, although that has 'dummymander' written all over it).
Now that it's 2011, the redistricting games will soon begin in earnest, with more detailed Census data expected in the coming weeks and some states holding spring legislative sessions to deal with drawing new maps. Long ago I planned to do state-by-state rundowns of the redistricting process as soon as 2010 election results and Census reapportionment were clear. Now that time has arrived, and it's time to look at Massachusetts, Michigan, and Minnesota.
Well, seeing as how I just finished a short research paper on Minnesota congressional districts for one of my classes, I thought it would be a good idea to give the diary thing a try before I get too busy with finals. This is the first in a series of Minnesota maps, some possible and others, unfortunately not. The first map is below:
My goal with this map was to predict the outcome of the redistricting process given the current situation - Republican legislature and Democratic governor. I assumed that Minnesota will keep its eigth seat becasue new estimates suggest that will happen and Minnesota had a very high census response rate. I may have been too optimistic by drawing Craavack out of the 8th (God I hope that happens) but if that were to happen to anyone, it would be him since he has the least seniority and influence. Close ups of the districts are below. In some of the close ups, green represents new additions to the district and purple/pink represents areas that were lost.
Shocking as it may be to see an expression of optimism from me, I'm gonna do exactly that regarding Minnesota's political future for Democrats. Particularly now, less than a week after the DFL supermajorities were transformed into Republican majorities in the state legislature, this may seem counterintuitive, but having crunched the numbers over the past five days, I feel as though the condition of the state's politics is less troublesome that it may look from an outsider's perspective.
I noticed today that Nate Silver crunched the numbers for the Minnesota Governor's race and determined that Democrat Mark Dayton had a 77% chance of victory. Pretty generous. With the exception of the 1994 Arne Carlson reelection landslide, Minnesota has had 20 years worth of gubernatorial elections that have had so many dramatic twists and turns that they could have been made into movies. One actually was! Given this record of volatility and other specifics of this contest, I think Nate's traditional calculus needs to be thrown out. This race is far from over, and all three candidates still have a viable path to victory.
4:19am: One last update from beyond the grave: Dan Maes wins the Republican gubernatorial nomination -- joyous news for Democrats everywhere. The final margin, according to the AP, was 50.7% Maes, 49.3% McInnis.
3:17am: The SSP news team is calling it a night. Hopefully we wake up tomorrow to find Dan Maes as the GOP nominee in Colorado and Karen Handel and Nathan Deal locked in a drawn-out recount battle. (One is allowed to dream, right?)
2:48am: Deep Thought: Have Colorado's ballot-counters been kidnapped by the UN's armada of black helicopters? We may never know...
2:47am: We're now at 94.2% reporting, and Dan Maes by just shy of 5200 votes. Come on, you whacko, let's blow this thing and go home!
1:37am: With 91% reporting, Dan Maes in CO-Gov has a lead just shy of 4,000 votes. By the way, somewhere along the way, the AP finally called CO-03's GOP primary for Scott Tipton (56-44), not that you were probably agonizing over that one.
1:33am: Ah, now the AP has made it official on their own site. Dayton will face Tom Emmer (and IP nominee Tom Horner) in November, in a pretty interesting political second act.
1:30am: While the AP's site itself doesn't have the red check mark, Politico is saying that the AP has called MN-Gov for Mark Dayton. (Looks like they can do the same math, regarding Duluth, that I can.) 95% are reporting, and Dayton has moved into a 4,000 vote margin (still 41-40), with 135/178 of St. Louis now reported.
1:25am: Things are pretty stable for Dan Maes in CO-Gov, with 90% reporting. Maes leads 50.5%-49.5%, outside auto-recount territory. He has an almost 4,000 vote margin. That's with all of Denver having reported, and the outstanding precincts coming in Maes-friendly counties like El Paso and Douglas.
1:20am: Apparently auto-recount territory in Minnesota is also one-half of one percent. Dayton is at 40.8%, while Kelliher has 40.3%. So we're literally right on the cusp. (Although if things keep going for Dayton, he'll soon be out of the zone.)
1:17am: Now things are really moving in Dayton's direction. He's up to a 1,000 vote margin, with 94% reporting. St. Louis is at 100/178 now, which is pushing things for Dayton.
1:10am: Mark Dayton has moved into the lead in MN-Gov. Just barely... it's 41-40 in his favor now, with a 400-vote margin. But that seems likely to increase, with St. Louis still with only 68 of 178 reporting. That's with 91% reporting overall. Seems to be mostly rural counties filling in the gap, so Duluth will be the icing on Dayton's cake.
12:44am: Also regarding CO-Gov, the only counties that were really keeping McInnis in this at all were the ones in his old CO-03, like Mesa (72-28 McInnis) and Pueblo (53-47 McInnis). Denver is 51-49 McInnis and all the other suburban/exurban counties are going for Maes. Mesa (Grand Jct.) and Pueblo are done reporting, while there are still lots of outstanding precincts in El Paso, Arapahoe and Jefferson (suburbs), Douglas (exurbs), and Larimer (Ft. Collins): all Maes counties.
12:40am: Via the twittermajig, Jennifer Duffy points out two helpful things: one, the recount level in Colorado is one-half of one percent. Right now, Maes is up, believe it or not, 50.26%-49.74%, so he's just outside that zone. (That's with 79% reporting.) Second, though, she points out that he's expected to run strongest in El Paso County (Colorado Spgs.), where there are still a couple hundred precincts outstanding, so it's looking more like Maes will win this thing recount-free.
12:34am: Things are verrry slowly converging in Minnesota. 87% are reporting now, and it's 41-40, MAK over Dayton, but that's with only a 600 vote lead. And St. Louis still hasn't added any more precincts! Most of the new votes seem to have come in from Stearns Co (St. Cloud), where Dayton leads 42-34.
12:23am: Go, crazy bike-hating campaign-finance-law-violating guy! Dan Maes, with 78% in now, has padded his advantage, up to a 1,600 vote lead over plagiarist Scott McInnis. I'm not familiar with Colorado recount law, but that's a 50.2%-49.8% advantage.
12:17am: Sifting over Minnesota results with a fine-toothed comb, it looks like Beltrami Co. (Bemidji) is the second biggest clot of outstanding precincts. (7 of 62 have reported.) Dayton has a narrower edge there, 41-38. There's also some smaller counties (Pine, Pope, Roseau) that haven't reported anything (all of which have 40-some precincts, all of which are rural counties... again, not that there's a clear pattern among the rural counties, but the general trend in such counties seems to favor Dayton.
12:12am: Actually, I take that back, I am sensing a pattern. The biggest clot of outstanding votes are in St. Louis County (Duluth and the Iron Range), where only 49 of 178 have reported. Hennepin and Ramsey (the Twin Cities) are done reporting. Dayton seems to have an advantage in St. Louis, seeing as how he was previously elected statewide, whereas MAK has a small Twin Cities constituency. Dayton's winning 54-30 in St. Louis, so if he can keep those numbers up, he might actually pull this out in the end.
12:10am: Things are very close in Minnesota now, with 81% reporting. MAK leads Dayton 41-40, with Entenza at 18. It's less than a 4,000 vote lead for Kelliher, out of about 375,000. I can't discern a pattern among the counties... Kelliher and Dayton are both from the Twin Cities... so it's hard to see how much of a trend is at work here.
12:02am: Rocky Mountain high? Looks like they may be taking a ganja break in Colorado, where the needle's been stuck on 75% reporting for a while. Dan Maes still has about a 1,200 vote lead over Scott McInnis.
11:39pm: OK, now the AP has called it for Ken Buck, for those of you keeping close score at home.
11:37pm: Things are staying fairly stable but close in Minnesota. With 67% reporting, it's MAK 42, Dayton 39, Entenza 18. It'll be a while till we know what's what here.
11:36pm: And the GOP gubernatorial primary in Colorado keeps puttering along, at 50-50 with Maes currently up by 1,050.
11:35pm: In Colorado, various twitterers are saying Ken Buck has won, but the AP hasn't graced us with a red checkmark yet. He's up 52-48 with 76% reporting, though, so it looks pretty locked in. Kind of a faceplant for John McCain, who extended a lot of political capital to ally Norton the last few weeks.
11:20pm: 75% in in Colorado. Things are looking slightly better for Dan Maes, or better yet, for a protracted recount that ends with a Maes win. It's 50-50 with a 1,300 lead for Maes.
11:16pm: Wow, things are definitely tightening in MN-Gov. It's now 42 MAK, 39 Dayton, 18 Entenza. That's with 55% reporting. Nate Silver just tweeted that he sees this coming down to a few thousand votes. (Currently Kelliher's lead is about 10,000.)
11:12pm: 2897 out of 2898 precincts have reported in Georgia. I think that's about as complete as we're going to get... and no call from the AP. Deal leads 291,713 to 289,353. Karen Handel had better hope there are 2,500 Handel votes in that last precinct. That's 50.2%-49.8% for Deal, so we are pretty certainly heading for a recount.
11:10pm: Somewhere along the way, the AP called the CO-07 GOP primary for Ryan Frazier, 65-35. He'll face Ed Perlmutter in an uphill fight in November.
11:08pm: Although 52-48 qualifies as a close race, it's pretty mundane compared with the excitement in GA-Gov and CO-Gov. Ken Buck leads Jane Norton by 4%, or by 10,000 votes.
11:06pm: Let's take one more look at Colorado. In the Gov GOP primary, it's Dan Maes up by only about 500 votes, at 50-50. Could we possibly see two recounts between GOPers? Best possible outcome, recount followed by Maes victory, and him fighting to bitter end. 73% are reporting.
10:52pm: MAK now leads Dayton by 43-38 with 42% in.
10:48pm: Irish eyes are smiling (I guess) -- Tom Foley has won the GOP gube nomination in Connecticut.
10:44pm: We're up to 99.4% reporting in GA-Gov. Deal leads by 3,500 -- or 0.6% of the vote. We're definitely in the recount zone here.
10:42pm: It's worth noting that Taryl Clark is only getting 65% of the vote against Maureen Reed. Perhaps some Reed supporters didn't hear the news that she dropped out of the race two months ago.
10:38pm: MAK's lead over Mark Dayton has fallen even further, to 44-38 with 32% reporting.
10:37pm: With 67% in, Ken Buck is now up over Jane Norton by nearly ten grand. Maes still leads McInnis by one g.
10:33pm: The AP went on a binge in Connecticut, calling CT-02 for ex-TV anchor Janet Pecinpaugh, CT-04 for Dan Debicella, and CT-05 for Sam Caligiuri. The Republican gubernatorial primary is still un-called, with Tom Foley leading Michael Fedele by 43-38 (74% of the vote in).
10:30pm: Over in Minnesota, the Dem gube primary is narrowing slightly -- MAK leads Dayton by 45-37 with 28% in.
10:27pm: Bicyclists beware, Dan Maes is back up in the GOP CO-Gov primary. He leads McInnis by 1000 votes with 65% reporting.
RESULTS:
10:24pm: Time to move this party over to a freshly baked thread.
10:24pm: Guess who's happy in Georgia? Roy Barnes. The GOPers seem possible that they'll enter into an automatic runoff, with 97% reporting. It's a 50.5%-49.5% advantage for Nathan Deal.
10:22pm: We're up to 23% reporting in Minnesota, and things seem to be solidifying: MAK is still in the lead at 46, with Dayton at 36 and Entenza at 17.
10:16pm: No calls yet in CO-03 and CO-07, but Tipton leads McConnell 55-45 and Frazier leads Sias 65-35, not much drama left there.
10:15pm: By contrast, things are spreading a little more in CO-Sen R. Ken Buck now leads 52-48 over Norton.
10:14pm: Uh oh. McInnis has pulled back into the lead in CO-Gov, at least according to the AP. It's 50-50, with a McInnis lead of 2,000.
10:12pm: Andrew Romanoff has reportedly called Michael Bennet to concede.
10:10pm: Just keep in mind: Georgia has an automatic recount for results within 1%. With 96% reporting, Handel has tightened things a little, to a 50.4%-49.6% race. 4,500 votes separate them.
10:08pm: Here's a useful tidbit: the AP has called the IP primary in MN-Gov for Tom Horner. I'd heard reports that random GOPers (with no major primary of their own) were thinking of crossing over to sandbag Horner and try to get someone less appealing there, as the center-right Horner seems likelier to spoil things for Emmer than the Dem nominee.
10:07pm: We might also expect a call soon in CT-04 (where Dan Debicella's at 64%, although only about one-third is reporting) and maybe also CT-05, where 75% is reporting and Caligiuri keeps gaining a little more daylight: he now leads Bernier and Greenberg 41-31-29.
10:03pm: The AP has called the CT-Sen GOP primary for Linda McMahon. She beats Simmons and Schiff 49-29-22. Still not sure I understand Simmons' gambit, but at this point, it doesn't matter. Let's get ready for Blumenthal and McMahon to rumble.
10:01pm: Could Minnesota be another primary that the pollsters all got wrong? With 15% reporting, Margaret Anderson Kelliher is actually adding to her lead. She's leading the lazy men at 47, with 35 for Dayton and 17 for Entenza.
9:58pm: The AP hasn't called CO-Sen D, but the Denver Post have, and they probably know their state well. They just called it for Michael Bennet, who will not be joining Bob Bennett in the retirement home.
9:57pm: With ballots going to be counted over the coming days (Washington-style, they'll count anything with today's postmark), it may be a while till we know who wins either the R primaries in CO-Gov or CO-Sen. On the Senate side, it's also Ken Buck 51, Jane Norton 49. For the Dems, it's Michael Bennet 54, Andrew Romanoff 46.
9:55pm: Switching back to Colorado: it looks like they're losing a little momentum in the count, as after quickly reaching half they're only at 56% reporting now statewide. In the Gov GOP primary, Dan Maes still has a 51-49 lead over Scott McInnis.
9:54pm: I know you were on pins and needles about the wingnut-vs-wingnut duel in GA-07. The AP has called it in favor of former John Linder CoS Rob Woodall, 55-45, over Jody Hice.
9:52pm: We're closing in on done in Georgia. (Apparently the Fulton County website is the one that's right, and 75% there have reported.) Overall, 93% are in, and we're still not close to knowing who won GA-Gov R. Deal still leads Handel 51-49, with a 7,000 vote lead out of more than 500K.
9:50pm: In CT-05, Sam Caligiuri is picking up a little speed. He's at 40, vs. 30 each for Bernier and Greenberg, with about one-third reporting.
9:49pm: I wonder how Rob Simmons would be doing if he hadn't done the weird Ross Perot-style angry dropout and half-assed return? Although it's looking like Linda McMahon will win comfortably, Simmons plus Peter Schiff are keeping her below the halfway mark: 48-30-22.
9:47pm: It'll be a while till we get a call in the GOP gube race in CT. Fedele's definitely keeping things interesting, having had a late surge of his own. He's at 37 to Foley's 43, with 20 for Griebel.
9:45pm: The Hartford Courant is reporting that Ned Lamont has conceded the gubernatorial primary. (Guess who's heaving a sigh of relief? Joe Lieberman.) And the AP just called the race, too. It's 58-42 Malloy, with a little less than half reporting.
9:44pm: A little weirdness to note in Fulton County, Georgia. Their county website say they're reporting 75% in, but they only have a few thousand more votes reported than according to the AP... and the AP says Fulton is only 21% reporting. We'll have to see how this resolves itself.
9:42pm: We're up to 2% in in MN-Gov's DFL primary now, and things have switched here too. Kelliher's now in the lead at 44, with Dayton at 33 and Kelliher at 22. A lot of Ramsey Co. (St. Paul) votes have come in, and they're going for MAK by a wide margin.
9:40pm: Sad news for rematch fans. In GA-13 (not an interesting race, except for Base Connect enthusiasts), Deborah "The Defrauder" Honeycutt has lost her GOP runoff. The AP calls it for Mike Crane, 68-32; Crane will face David Scott in this safe Dem district.
9:39pm: There's also those wee House races in Colorado. In CO-07's GOP primary, Ryan Frazier seems to have this under control, beating Lang Sias 65-35 with more than half in. And with about a quarter in, Scott Tipton is way ahead of Bob McConnell, 58-42.
9:37pm: Also in Colorado, where we've shot past 50% reporting (to 56), things have swapped around in the Senate race. Ken Buck now leads Jane Norton, by a narrow 51-49 (133K to 127K), and Michael Bennet now leads Andrew Romanoff by a more convincing 54-46 (129K to 109K).
9:35pm: As things progress in Colorado, Dan Maes is starting to pull into the lead in the GOP gube primary. He leads Scott McInnis 52-48. That's extremely good news, as Maes won't drop out (while McInnis might, allowing a salvageable replacement) and will see this through to the bitter end.
9:32pm: The CT-04 GOP primary isn't too remarkable (Dan Debicella is at 62% against two Some Dudes), but CT-05 is a three-way barnburner. Sam Caligiuri currently has a small edge, with 20% reporting. He leads Justin Bernier and Mark Greenberg 37-33-30.
9:30pm: Meanwhile, on the GOP side in Connecticut, Tom Foley is keeping his edge; he leads Michael Fedele and Oz Griebel 45-36-19. (Griebel, as the least known but also apparently least objectionable of the three, also seems to be overperforming.)
9:28pm: Dan Malloy is starting to put a little distance between him and Ned Lamont in the Connecticut governor's Dem primary. Malloy now leads 58-42 with 28% reporting. Looks like Malloy's way overperforming the polls, although the polls did capture his late surge.
9:25pm: We finally have some numbers in Minnesota, although it's only a fraction of a percent of precincts reporting, from bellwether Anoka and Dakota Cos. in the MSP suburbs. Mark Dayton is at 43, with Margaret Anderson Kelliher at 36 and Matt Entenza at 20.
9:23pm: Insert Dan Ratherism here about the closeness of the Georgia GOP gubernatorial runoff. Nathan Deal leads Karen Handel 51-49 with 79% in, with about a 9,000 vote margin out of over 450,000 cast.
9:21pm: Looks like we have a few AP calls down in the Peach State. Tom Graves will get to stay in the House for another two years without having to face Lee Hawkins again; Graves wins GA-09 56-44. And in GA-12, Ray McKinney will get to take his nuclear power plant project management skills to the general election against John Barrow; he defeated Carl Smith 62-38. No call in GA-07 yet, although Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice 55-45 with about two-thirds in.
9:19pm: We're racking up the numbers pretty quickly in Colorado now. Over in the Governor's GOP primary, with almost 20% in, McInnis leads Maes by less than 1,000 votes, at 51-49.
9:11pm: Quite a few votes are reporting in Colorado, and Romanoff leads Bennet by 51-49 with 14% of precincts in. Norton leads Buck by 54-46 so far.
9:09pm: We're at 70% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 237,146 to 229,295.
9:01pm: Now that MN and CO are closed, let's move this party over here.
8:55pm: 64% in, and Deal leads by 212,126 to 201,445.
8:50pm: Fulton County fans should know that they have their own results website, featuring a mind-bogglingly annoying auto-scroll feature. Enjoy!
8:47pm: So we're up to 61% reporting in GA, and Deal leads Handel by 194,074 to 185,254.
8:44pm: Back in Connecticut, Malloy leads Lamont by 57-43 with about 10% in. Foley is up on Fedele by 46-45. Janet Peckinpaugh leads Daria Novak by 43-37 in the 2nd, and Caligiuri leads Greenberg by only 35-33 in the 5th.
8:37pm: 54% reporting in GA, and Deal's lead has closed to 168,784-162,623.
8:26pm: We're now at 43% reporting in Georgia, and Deal now leads Handel by 123,489 votes to 114,045. Deal's keeping his 4% lead steady.
8:21pm: Over in the Nutmeg state, Foley leads Fedele by 46-34 with 2% of town precincts reporting. Malloy is up by 56-44 over Lamont, and McMahon has a 48-27-25 lead over Simmons and Schiff. In the 5th CD, Sam Caligiuri has a 36-32-32 lead over businessman Mark Greenberg and Afganistan vet Justin Bernier.
8:18pm: We're up to 34% reporting in GA, and Nathaniel Deal is holding onto a 83,957-77,554 lead.
8:10pm: Deal is now leading by a full 4%, 72,107 to 66,595, with 31% reporting. Handel's even losing Gwinnett County narrowly to Deal, which she won by a large spread back in July.
8:09pm: If you'd like to compare tonight's results to the first round of voting, check out this handy table of county results.
8:05pm: Again, this seems to be a rare night where the Associated Press (and, therefore, the Politico) are getting lapped by the Georgia SoS. With 28% in, Deal now leads by 56,437-53,131 (3%).
8:03pm: So back to GA: Deal now sports a 48,814-46,354 lead over Handel with 26% in.
8:02pm: Polls have now closed in Connecticut.
7:57pm: Look out! Deal just took a 0.6% lead, according to the SoS. 24% of precincts are now reporting.
7:53pm: The crew over at SSP Labs is still setting up the mainframe, but we should get some projections to you once the boys in the long white coats are good and ready.
7:52pm: Deal's now pulled even (according to the SoS office), trailing Handel by just over 40 votes, 24,739-24,693. 18% reporting.
7:48pm: In the House races, Rob Woodall leads Jody Hice by 10% in GA-07, incumbent Tom Graves leads Screamin' Lee Hawkins by 14% in GA-09, and Ray McKinney leads Carl Smith 10% in GA-12. Oh, and Deborah Honeycutt is getting thrashed by Mike Crane in the 13th.
7:46pm: Handel now leads by just under 1000 votes (2.6%) with 15% of precincts reporting.
7:35pm: It's now 9,630 Handel, 8,899 Deal (a 4% lead) with 9% of precincts reporting, according to the SoS. Only 1% of e-day votes have been counted so far, though.
7:20pm: We're up to 3% reporting (according to the SoS office), and Handel's lead over Deal is now 2,240-2,052 (that's 52%-48%).
7:13pm: The GA SoS has our first taste of results for the night, with Handel leading Deal by a mere 28 votes.
Polls have now closed in Georgia, and SSP Headline News will be using this thread to follow the returns. Connecticut closes at 8pm Eastern and Minnesota and Colorado close at 9pm Eastern. We'll touch base with those states later.
FL-Gov (R) - (yes!!!!!!)
FL-Sen (D) - Meek v. Greene
FL-12, 25 (R) - open seats
FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)
FL-02 (D) - challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1
FL-17 (D) - Meek's open seat
AK-Gov (R) - Parnell and the ghost of Palin?
AK-Sen (R) - Murkowski v. Palin proxy
8/28:
LA-Sen (R) - Vitter v. Traylor
LA-02 (D) - Lafonta v. Richmond
LA-03 (R)
In challenging times like ours, it is important to step back and look at the big picture. In the Senate we wrestle with painful choices to balance the state budget. Some factors affecting the budget are outside of our control, some we can control, and others fall somewhere in-between. While most legislative work addresses things we have direct control over, we should at least understand other factors influencing the resources available.
