• NY-20: Well, we know Scott Murphy can count on getting at least one vote out of the huge pile of absentee ballots in the deadlocked NY-20 election: the ballot of the woman he's seeking to replace, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, is one of them.
• NY-29: In an example of political chaos theory at work, the NY-20 election may wind up protecting Rep. Eric Massa several seats over. If Jim Tedisco wins, he's out of his current job as Assembly Minority Leader, and even if he loses, there have been rumblings to replace him anyway. His replacement as Minority Leader would likely be Brian Kolb, who, if he took the position, would probably want to focus on that and no longer be the top GOP pick to take on Eric Massa in NY-29. (Other potential GOP candidates in NY-29 include Monroe County Executive Maggie Brooks and state senators Cathy Young and George Winner.)
• PA-Sen: Arlen Specter is already defending his right flank with ads attacking ex-Rep. Pat Toomey, in preparation for the 2010 primary. Specter's ad sounds a bit, um, Democratic, attacking Toomey for favoring deregulation, wanting to privatize Social Security, and for the unforgivable sin of having traded CDSs when he was working on Wall Street.
• MN-Sen: The next step in the MN-Sen saga has national implications: governor Tim Pawlenty has to decide, once the Minnesota Supreme Court rules, whether to go ahead and sign the certificate declaring Al Franken the winner (and, y'know, follow the rule of law)... or whether to continue to obstruct Franken in order not to alienate the rabid Republican base he'll need in 2012 if he's going to have any hope in the presidential primary.
• OH-Sen: I know I wouldn't buy a used car from Rob Portman, but he finally has some competition in the GOP primary, and it's a guy a lot of people apparently have bought used cars from. Cleveland-area car dealer Tom Ganley has also entered the race (although he shouldn't be more than a speed bump for the heavily-funded Portman).
• AK-AL: Lt. Gov. Sean Parnell is "considering" another primary run at Rep. Don Young. One negative for Parnell is that, this time, he'd have to give up his LG slot for a 2010 run. But there's also the possibility that the federal investigation into Young may actually yield something in the next few years.
• DCCC: The DCCC launched a new radio spot in the districts of six GOP representatives in Democratic-leaning seats, attacking them for voting against the middle-class tax cuts contained in the stimulus package. The targets are Mike Castle (DE-AL), Ken Calvert (CA-44), Bill Young (FL-10), Thad McCotter (MI-11), Charlie Dent (PA-15), and Mike McCaul (TX-10).
• LA-02: The Anh Cao Watch continues! GOP leading lights John McCain and Rep. Paul Ryan (WI-01) were recently seen jawing with Cao, who hasn't yet decided how he'll vote on the Democrats' budget resolution. Would he really defect? And would it even matter? (D)
• Census: The new pick for Census Director has been announced, and if the squealing emitting from Patrick McHenry is any indication, it's a good pick. It's Robert Groves, a Univ. of Michigan professor who was the Census's associate director for statistical design in the early 90s. Groves is a proponent of statistical sampling, which is the main flashpoint in debate over the census. Commerce Sec. Gary Locke has indicated that sampling won't be used for redistricting purposes, but will be used for increased accuracy (for purposes of allocating federal funds, for instance).
• Site News: SSP is delighted to announce that we've just welcomed our six millionth visitor to the site. Thank you, everyone! (D)
• NY-20: The NRCC is already using the paper-thin margin in NY-20 last night as the springboard for a whole new fundraising e-mail pitch: the Dems are trying to "pull a Franken" and "steal" the election in the courts, so please send lawyers, guns, and money. Eric Kleefeld has a thought on why this is good news! For Pete Sessions!
One problem Murphy might have is that Al Franken's lawyers aren't available right now. And in Tedisco's favor, Norm Coleman's attorneys are busy, too.
The Fix has obtained some Democratic projections of how things will shake out after all absentees are counted (they're projecting Murphy by 210). This appears to be based on performance rates in the counties where the absentees came from (in other words, there seem to be disproportionately more absentees coming from pro-Murphy counties than Saratoga).
• AK-Sen: It happened a few months too late to save Ted Stevens' job, but the DOJ has finally dropped its frequently-bungled case against Stevens after further instances of prosecutorial misconduct arose.
• CT-Sen: One more 'oopsie' for Chris Dodd: he blew through a lot of his campaign war chest on his ill-advised 2008 presidential run (he transferred $4.7 million from his 2010 senate kitty to his presidential campaign). He's currently at only $670K cash on hand, compared with $1.6 million at this same point in his 2004 re-election.
• FL-Sen: Kendrick Meek plays Gallant to Chris Dodd's Goofus: he raised a whopping $1.5 million in the first quarter, as he tries to nail down frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination.
• CA-Sen: Carly Fiorina, who was briefly sidelined by treatment for breast cancer, seems ready to get back into the political arena. She's "seriously considering" entering the race against Barbara Boxer.
• OK-Gov, OK-04: SSP's all-time favorite punching bag, Tom Cole, looks to be staying where he is. He's declined to run for Oklahoma governor, leaving fellow Rep. Mary Fallin in the driver's seat for the GOP nomination.
• TX-10: Democrat Jack McDonald, an Austin-area businessman running for the seat of GOP Rep. Mike McCaul, has announced that his campaign has raised over $300,000 in its first five weeks. Those are some pretty impressive numbers at this stage in the game. (J)
• NRCC/NRSC: Remember the brouhaha over the big NRCC/NRSC fundraising dinner where no one could figure out whether or not Sarah Palin was going to keynote, where it turned out that the governor's office and SarahPAC had no idea what each other were doing? Well, amateur hour is continuing apace in Anchorage, as now she's off again. In her place, Newt Gingrich (who would have ever predicted the day when Newt Gingrich would be seen, by comparison, as the GOP's sober, rational elder statesman?).
• History: PolitickerNY takes an intersting trip down memory lane, looking at some of the greatest hits among previous close House elections, like CT-02 in 1994 and IN-08 in 1984.
• TX-10: Democrats have lined up a solid candidate in TX-10, where Larry Joe Doherty came within 10 points of Mike McCaul last year. Jack McDonald, CEO of Austin high-tech firm Perficient, has started an exploratory committee. This fast-growing, Dem-trending district may also be an open seat in 2010, as McCaul considers a bid for Texas AG.
• CA-48: It looks like GOP Rep. John Campbell is about to receive a stronger-than-expected Democratic challenge in 2010. Beth Krom, the former mayor of Irvine and a current city councilor, has made a formal announcement of her candidacy on her campaign website. A traditionally red district, Obama edged out a slight victory over McCain here in 2008, pulling 49% of the vote. (Hat-tip to Gus Ayer, friend of SSP) (J)
• NV-Sen: Here's one that slipped through the cracks last week: ex-Rep. Jon Porter, who'd be the GOP's best option against Harry Reid, is staying in Washington and becoming 'director of public policy' at a lobbying shop. Not that this closes him out from running, but it diminshes the likelihood.
• FL-Sen: Rep. Kendrick Meek has been racking up money ($90,000 at a recent Bill Clinton-headlined fundraiser) and endorsements (Florida's SEIU chapter and United Teachers of Dade) while primary opponent state senator Dan Gelber is preoccupied with the legislative session.
• DCCC: In a big behind-the-scenes move, DCCC executive director (and Pelosi ally) Brian Wolff has left the D-Trip to become senior VP for external affairs at the Edison Electric Institute, a utility-owned trade and lobbying group that has previously given significantly more money to Republicans. (UPDATE: The DCCC's new executive director will be Jon Vogel, who previously led the DCCC's independent expenditures arm.)
• WA-08: Here's an interesting take from American Prospect on what went wrong with Darcy Burner's rematch against Dave Reichert, written by Eli Sanders, the former politics reporter for the Stranger (Seattle's alt-weekly). I'm not sure I agree with the final analysis (they say it was mostly a matter of tone) but it's thought-provoking.
Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), who won a third term in November in a race that was closer than many Republicans would have liked, is expected to create an exploratory committee for a possible run for state attorney general in 2010, two Texas media outlets reported Thursday evening.
The current attorney general, Greg Abbott (R), is contemplating running for lieutenant governor next year - or for Senate if Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) resigns early to pursue a gubernatorial bid.
This might be the most exciting House open seat news so far this cycle. McCaul won with just 54% of the vote in November, and 55% two years earlier. This district always looked more competitive than its (old) PVI of R+13, in large part due to an ongoing demographic sea change - in particular, Hispanic growth here has been through the roof.
I'd also be willing to bet that Bush's numbers were inflated here due to a home state effect - and that Obama did better than Kerry's 38%. The real question is whether there is something "wrong" with McCaul that's kept his numbers down - and, consequently, would we be better off running against him or with an open seat? I'll note that the DCCC didn't spend a dime on this district, but first-time candidate Larry Joe Doherty did raise an impressive $1.2 million in his losing bid.
If McCaul bails, Doherty could conceivably run again, as could international affairs consultant Dan Grant, who ran in the primary against Doherty in 2008. My question to you: Are there any other strong candidate who might be tempted to run if there's an open seat?
Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters):
Larry Joe Doherty (D): 42
Mike McCaul (R): 46
(MoE: ±5%)
Texas is a long-term project for the Democrats, and districts like TX-10 are leading the way: it's one of the fastest-growing districts in the country, and most of the growth is non-white. If this poll is any indication, though, we might be on the verge of seeing some good results right away.
Mike McCaul was already publicly sweating the early voting patterns in Harris and Travis Counties (this R+13 district stretches wormlike across hundreds of miles to link Houston and Austin suburbs). This poll can't be helping him feel any better, as it's slightly better than recent Doherty internals. Between McCaul never having faced a full-on challenge before, Doherty's money and name recognition (he's a former TV judge), changes in the district, and the size of the Dem wave (McCain leads only 48-41 in the district, down from Bush's 62-38 edge), here's one more upset waiting to happen.
The Children's Health Insurance Program is that rarest of government creations -- a joint federal-state effort that actually works to reduce the number of uninsured children in our country. No wonder Congressional leaders are trying to expand it -- and the White House is trying to dismantle it.
The question for us is this: will our Congressman join the bi-partisan effort to strengthen CHIP? Or will he stick with the short-sighted ideological opposition of the Bush Administration and leave millions of children without health insurance?
Let me first say, I have never met Dan Grant nor do I live in TX-10, but I am a young Texas Democrat who regularly commutes from TX-22 (Friendswood/Houston) to TX-26 (Denton/Fort Worth) for college.
I was just checking the FEC records because, well, I was bored and I noticed the numbers for the Texans who have filed their reports thus far. According to said reports, Democratic challenger for TX-10, Dan Grant, performed admirably.
For a district hovering somewhere in our third tier, $72.7 thousand is not too shabby. However the real amazing part is when this is compared to the Republican incumbent, Mike McCaul.
Ignoring the outstanding debt McCaul's campaign has ramped up, Grant still has more cash. If McCaul were to pay off all of his debt today he'd be $38,624.82 in the hole. This is an amazing advantage Grant has raised over McCaul and I hope the DCCC takes notice.
It is important to note that Grant does have a democratic challenge ahead of him. Larry Joe Doehrty (sp?) who is known for his tv court room drama, Texas Justice, is in the democratic primary as well. While I am personally rooting for Grant due to his efforts in reaching out to blogs, he has posted here on swingstate several times before, it is important that we support whomever wins the democratic nomination next year especially since McCaul won with a pathetic 55% last year.
If you would like to learn more about Dan Grant please visit his website: http://www.dangrantf...
I'm sure donations would also be welcome to keep his momentum going: http://www.actblue.c...
P.S. While I like commenting (have been for almost 2 years), this is my first diary. How'd I do?
