9:41pm: Follow us over here.
9:40pm: I don't think we've even mentioned the Kansas Dem Senate primary, not that we really need to. Lisa Johnston leads at 35, with Charles Schollenberger at 23, and David Haley (a state Senator and former SoS candidate, no less) a woeful 17.
9:39pm: Switching back to Kansas, things are getting tighter between Jerry Moran and Todd Tiahrt. Moran leads 49-44 with about 8% in.
9:36pm: Speaking of MI-02, that GOP primary may be the night's most exciting match. It's currently Huizenga 26, Kuipers 25, Riemersma 24, Cooper 19.
9:34pm: Although Peter Hoekstra can take some comfort in the fact that he's still well-liked back home. He's up 50-25 over Snyder within the bounds of MI-02.
9:33pm: As we close in on 20% statewide in Michigan, things are looking fairly stable in the governor's races. Virg Bernero leads 58-24 over Andy Dillon for the Ds. For the GOP, it's Snyder 36, Hoekstra 27, Cox 25, Bouchard 10. Looks like cornering the moderate market worked out for tough nerd Snyder.
9:31pm: Thanks to a big margin in the Lower Peninsula, Jason Allen's pulling into the lead in MI-01, now 39-38 over Dan Benishek.
9:30pm: As more votes pour in, things are tightening up in MI-13. Hansen Clarke still leads Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, but with about 10% in, it's still a pretty big Clarke lead: 50-32. At least she's over the Bob Inglis line for worst incumbent primary performance.
9:28pm: The most drama in Missouri seems to be in the GOP field in MO-04, where social con Vicki Hartzler leads state Sen. Bill Stouffer 39-34.
9:27pm: What am I bid for a House seat? With about 10% reporting, auctioneer Billy Long is cruising in MO-07, with 40%. State Sen. Gary Nodler's stronghold of Newton Co. hasn't reported yet though (he's only at 8, with J. Goodman at 22).
9:25pm: Show Me the money! The AP has called the GOP Senate primary in Missouri, no surprise, for Roy Blunt. He's beating Chuck Purgason 72-13 in one of the cycle's bigger cases of teabagger fail.
9:23pm: Wow, major momentum shift in MI-02 again. Now teabagger Bill Cooper's in 4th! Huizenga and Kuipers share the lead at 26, with about 15% in.
9:21pm: Only 5% in in KS-01, but in the R primary there, birther real estate agent Tracey Mann leads at 32, with CfG fave Tim Huelskamp at 27 and 'moderate' Jim Barnett at 20. No runoffs in Kansas.
9:20pm: I think most people had forgotten that Lynn Jenkins in KS-02 was getting a semi-legit teabagger challenge (state Sen. Dennis Pyle). She's winning, but with an underwhelming 60-40 margin with about 3% in.
9:19pm: Hmm, things much tighter suddenly in MI-01 GOP primary. Benishek leads Allen 40-38.
9:18pm: Switching over to Kansas, Jerry Moran is in the lead, 52-40. Moran leads 73-22 in KS-01, while Todd Tiahrt leads 55-38 in KS-04.
9:16pm: In MI-09, Rocky Raczkowski is way in the lead in the GOP primary: 50-28 over Paul Welday, Joe Knollenberg's former CoS.
9:15pm: And in MI-07, the guy who was teabagging before it was called teabagging, Tim Walberg, looks like he'll be back for revenge. He's beating establishment choice Brian Rooney 55-34.
9:13pm: In MI-03: state Rep. (and teabagger) Justin Amash is running away with it at 47%, with Hardiman at 17 and Heacock at 19.
9:12pm: Check out MI-02: teabagging businessman Bill Cooper's in the lead at 30 with nearly 10% in, with those three Dutch-named guys all clumped in the low 20s.
9:08pm: It's early, but get a load of netroots fave Sean Tevis in KS-02 -- the dude is in third place against a pair of Some Dudes!
9:06pm: Hoekstra's leading 47-27 in his home CD, but in 3rd elsewhere.
9:04pm: In MI-06, Fred Upton has nosed down to 55% against wingnut's wingnut Jack Hoogendyk.
9:01pm: Back in Michigan, Virg Bernero has shot up to a 59-41 lead over Andy Dillon. For the Republicans, Rick Snyder is ahead of Pete "The Incredible Hoek" Hoekstra by 35-28. Just over 7% of precincts reporting.
8:57pm: Though this was a foregone conclusion, the Associated Press has called the Dem Senate nomination in Missouri for Robin Carnahan.
8:55pm: Just a handful of votes in in MI-13, but Hansen Clarke is leading Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick by 43-17 so far.
8:51pm: Some more GOP House race updates: In MI-01, Benishek leads Allen by 45-30; in MI-02, Kuipers leads Riemersma by 26-23 (with Huizenga very close behind); in MI-07, Walberg leads Rooney by 55-34.
8:49pm: Wow, check out MI-06 -- Republican incumbent Fred Upton is only at 55.5% against teabagging ex-state Rep. Jack Hoogendyk. 20% of precincts are reporting.
8:43pm: A good sign for Dan Benishek in MI-01 (R): he's leading 53-19 in the UP, but also edging out Jason Allen 35-34 in the LP.
8:40pm: Regional divisions are becoming pretty evident in a few races. In MI-Gov (R), Peter Hoekstra's scoring 61% in his home district while only 27% elsewhere. In KS-Sen (R), Jerry Moran's getting 73% in his home district to Tiahrt's 22%; he's also leading 59-34 in the rest of the state. Nothing in Tiahrt's home district's reported though.
8:39pm: The AP's called KS-Gov (R) for Sam Brownback.
8:24pm: House races for the GOP: In MI-07, Walberg's out to an early lead with 66%; in MI-01, with two UP precincts in, Dan Benishek's up 37-26 over Jason Allen. In Missouri, Vicki Hartzler is up 36-28 over Bill Stouffer in MO-04.
8:22pm: A few results in Michigan, where on the Dem side, Andy Dillon has a 3% advantage over Virg Bernero. On the GOP side, Peter Hoekstra's out to an early lead with 35%, with Mike Cox behind at 28% and Rick Snyder at 23.
8:18pm: A surprising result in MO-08 (R) so far, with incumbent Jo Ann Emerson earning only 60%.
8:12pm: Our first results in for the night, a lonely precinct in Missouri where Roy Blunt has 55% to Chuck Purgason's 37% in the GOP Senate primary.
Let's do this thing.
FL-Gov (R) - (yes!!!!!!)
FL-Sen (D) - Meek v. Greene
FL-12, 25 (R) - open seats
FL-02, 08, 22, 24 (R)
FL-02 (D) - challenge to a Blue Dog from the left, v4.1
FL-17 (D) - Meek's open seat
AK-Gov (R) - Parnell and the ghost of Palin?
AK-Sen (R) - Murkowski v. Palin proxy
8/28:
LA-Sen (R) - Vitter v. Traylor
LA-02 (D) - Lafonta v. Richmond
LA-03 (R)
OK, first off, this is a very strange situation, so please bear with me. More importantly, please rec this diary up; we need as much exposure as possible, as quickly as possible.
Michigan's 8th District has been "represented" (if you can call it that) by a Republican named Mike Rogers since 2000, when he won a squeaker of a race by just 111 votes to fill the U.S. House seat vacated by Debbie Stabenow when she was elected to the U.S. Senate.
You might be thinking that, given the closeness of the race, that MI-08 should be a district that the Dems could take back if they put their minds to it. Unfortunately, up until now, that hasn't happened. He won 68/31 in 2002, 61/37 in 2004, 55/43 in 2006 and 56/40 in 2008.
The closest anyone has gotten to him was Jim Marcinkowski in 2006, a former CIA agent and Naval Operations Specialist--and that was in an extremely Dem-friendly year (Marcinkowski, a former Republican, actually ran for Congress mostly because he was furious about the outing of Valerie Plame, who was a friend of his from his CIA days).
My name is Scott Withers and I am a Democratic Primary Candidate for the U.S. Congress in Michigan's 5th District. I am challenging incumbent Dale Kildee, someone whose public service I respect, but I believe is out of touch with the dire needs of the residents of Mid-Michigan.
I grew up in the small Tuscola County city of Vassar. My grandfathers, father, stepfather, sister and many uncles, aunts and cousins do or did work in the UAW plants throughout mid-Michigan. I received my dual-bachelors degree in International Relations and Broadcast Journalism at Syracuse University. While in school, I interned for CNN at the United Nations and in the London bureau. After graduation, I worked as a producer/writer and on-air youth correspondent for CNN in Atlanta. Following my time at CNN, I worked in local tv news in Tennessee and eventually moved into Public Relations where I worked on communications plans for large aviation, tourism and chemical companies. When the economy crashed last summer, I like millions of Americans was laid off. The last six months has been trying. I have lived through the fear of home foreclosure. I understand living pay check to pay check (often not making it). I can relate to the millions of good people who barely pay their bills with unemployment. I am not rich and don't have the desire to be. I live with my partner of 10 years, Lane, and our 3 dogs. I am running for Michigan's 5th Congressional District seat to help instill hope, create new jobs and solve the home foreclosure problem.
No surprise given the chatter, but the GR Press has coverage of the official announcement this morning:
Eleven months from the 2nd district GOP congressional primary, the race is shaping up as a battle of the insiders vs. the outsider with a familiar name.
Former NFL star Jay Riemersma kicks off his formal campaign today with a speech in Holland. He vows a new brand of politics for the conservative district that U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, has held since 1993. Hoekstra is running for governor.
"The last thing we need right now is legislative experience," said Riemersma, 36. "What we need is leadership, strong conservative leadership."
On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I've decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010. By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open. Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture. The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2. In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don't envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body. Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008). You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I'm only listing ones that I consider to be "Lean" or "Tossup" districts. I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.
We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year. If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says "Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats" next year. To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats. Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982. Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district. I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.
Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a "High Water Mark" here. Note that I didn't calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days. They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.
I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources. I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders. Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup. The Senator's name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.
I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don't want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.
Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.
The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.
Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
