No surprise given the chatter, but the GR Press has coverage of the official announcement this morning:
Eleven months from the 2nd district GOP congressional primary, the race is shaping up as a battle of the insiders vs. the outsider with a familiar name.
Former NFL star Jay Riemersma kicks off his formal campaign today with a speech in Holland. He vows a new brand of politics for the conservative district that U.S. Rep. Pete Hoekstra, R-Holland, has held since 1993. Hoekstra is running for governor.
"The last thing we need right now is legislative experience," said Riemersma, 36. "What we need is leadership, strong conservative leadership."
On the heels of my last Michigan related diary, which received some pretty suprising attention from the DLCC, I've decided to overview the potentially competitive State House Races going forward into 2010. By my count, about a third (34 out of 110) of the State House seats will be open in 2010, a far smaller percentage than in the State Senate, where at least 30 of 38 seats will be open. Although Democrats stand to gain several seats in the Senate, the House is not such a rosy picture. The competitive nature of the open seats means that there will be a lot of turnovers in the next election, but Democrats will at best only achieve a net gain of 1-2 seats, While the most likely scenario is a no net change to Republicans gaining 1-2. In a bad year Democrats could lose 5-6 seats, but I don't envision the Republicans gaining the 13 seats needed to take back control of the body. Democrats control the House by a 67-43 margin, after two successive cycles of huge gains (+6 in 2006 and +9 in 2008). You can view my Senate overview here http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Because most of the districts will be uncompetitive, I'm only listing ones that I consider to be "Lean" or "Tossup" districts. I will include, as in my Senate Diary, a list of announced and potential candidates and 2008 Presidential results.
We all know how important it is that Democrats re-capture the Michigan State Senate next year. If they take the Senate and hold the Governorship, they will have complete control over the redistricting process. Bill Ballenger, editor of Inside Michigan Politics, says "Democrats look poised to pick up at least 3 seats" next year. To take control, we only need to win 4 Republican seats. Democrats have not controlled the State Senate since 1982. Below I have all 38 Senate seats listed, with the name of its Senator, the party, whether or not it will be OPEN next year, and a brief description of the district. I also give a brief preliminary paragraph handicapping the race.
Then I give the 2008 Presidential Result in that District. Remember that the 2008 resutl is sort of a "High Water Mark" here. Note that I didn't calculate the Presidential Vote for the 5 Detroit districts because this would require going precinct by precinct which would have taken days. They are all at least 80% Obama, many are more than 90% Obama.
I then included all of the announced candidates for the races, with links to their websites or sources. I then list potential candidates for each race, usually State Representatives or other local officeholders. Finally, I offer a Charlie Cook style rating: Safe, Likely, Leans or Tossup. The Senator's name links to their website, where you can find a map of his or her district.
I realize that this is a lot of text, so for those who don't want to read the entire thing, I added all my ratings seperately at the bottom of the diary.
Updated to include the announced Candidacies of Fmr. Rep. John Stewart (D) in the 7th (h/t Sean Fitzpatrick) and Rep. Mary Valentine (D) in the 34th.
The following are my thoughts on redistricting each of the Midwestern states-from Iowa and Missouri to Western Pennsylvania. I think in general, things look good for Dems right now, with the exceptions of Indiana and Missouri. But read on and tell me what you think.
Lately there has been a lot of Debate over the number of Democratic Congressional Districts that Democrats could gerrymander out of the state of Michigan if they had complete control (right now they hold the Governorship and State House. They stand a good chance at taking control of the State Senate while the Governor's race is a tossup). A few people, namely IHateBush, have said that it is possible to succesfully draw a map that would yield 12 Democratic seats and only 2 Republican seats. I've been trying for several weeks to draw a 12-2 map, meanwhile protecting endangered incumbents (specifically Schauer) and I've determined that a 12-2 map would be far overeaching and in a neutral or Republican leaning year might end up 9-5 or worse. I think the best Michigan Democrats could do is create 11 safe or Democrat leaning districts and 3 strongly Republican districts. I've drawn a map that I think does just that, although I still am not entirely confident that we could hold both of my "Thumb" districts in a Republican year. But without further ado, here's my map.
I know redistricting diaries are a dime a dozen these days, but I'm going to do one that has never been done before: Michigan (assuming full Democratic control of the process). Nathaniel90 already drew a split control compromise map found here: http://www.swingstateproject.c...
Michigan will be losing a seat in 2012, going from 15 to 14. I think the chances of full Democratic control is about 50-50 or maybe slightly better. It looks like we have a very good shot at taking back control of the State Senate, while the Governors race is still pretty much up in the air, with presumptive nominee John Cherry lagging in the most recent poll. But this far out, no one can predict this one yet.
By this map Democrats would presumably hold a 9-5 advantage in Representation. They currently hold a 8-7 Advantage. In 2002, when Republicans drew the map, they (Rs) held a 9-6 advantage. My map protects freshmen Gary Peters and Mark Schauer, while throwing Dave Camp and Mike Rogers into a district together. It also draws a much more Democratic district for Thaddeus McCotter (or his Democratic successor), presumably eliminating him if he isn't already gone by 2012.
My map was drawn on microsoft paint, and some of the more detailed borders aren't exact. Also my computer has some kind of problem with pixelation or something, so it may appear a little blurry. Without further ado, here's my map with district profiles down below the flip.
Episode 2 in my series of diaries mapping out possible redistricting scenarios in the states has arrived! Today, I map Michigan and Nevada.
Grain of salt alert: my districts are based on county estimates from 2007 which are due to be adjusted soon with 2008 numbers. Also, I am using projected seat totals that are equally subject to change.
The number geeks among us will really enjoy what's below the fold...
The 2008 Election in Michigan was by far the best that we've had in years, maybe decades. We picked up two congressional seats, both of which were gerrymandered to favor Republicans. Better yet, we won one of them by nearly 10 points. Barack Obama won by a landslide here (16%) Compared to John Kerry, who only won by three points. On the Statewide level, we passed two progressive ballot initiatives, threw out the conservative Chief Justice of the State Supreme Court, and made huge gains in the State House of Representatives.
Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).
This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn't everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)
The biggest prize, and the only state where we've seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren't any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).
Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).
The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats' overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.
They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign's abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.
Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.
Afraid that they will lose this election, Republicans have turned ACORN into the boogie man. They are making baseless claims that ACORN is perpetuating voter fraud due to its voter registration activities.
In fact, the Republican National Committee's chief lawyer has labeled ACORN a "quasi-criminal organization," and McCain's campaign has launched ads accusing the group of "massive voter fraud" and bullying banks into making risky home loans. McCain's camp is also trying to link Democratic Sen. Barack Obama to ACORN. Last night, McCain said, "ACORN is destroying the fabric of democracy."
Last week, we finished surveying the lay of the land out West. This week, we begin to turn our attention to the Midwest. Yes, that's right. The Midwest looks to be once again a crucial battleground to win both the White House and Congress. And with just six weeks left until election day, we'd like to talk about the state of the races in America's Heartland.
Note From Diarist: This diary is primarily about the Presidential campaign. I wrote it for Daily Kos but didn't feel it got the exposure I was hoping for. It's very much inside baseball politics so I thought it might have some fans around here, but it is about the Presidential campaign which I know is no longer the focus of the website. If the moderator wishes to delete it, I'll understand.
We all know that Information about State Legislature races are hard to find. They are also very important to redistricting control of congress in 2012.
Here I have listed all or most of Michigan's State House of Representatives competitives races, as well as the candidates, most recent fundraising figures, and the partisan turnout from last month's primary election.
I have also roughly rated the districts a tossup and leans. Democrats are heavily favored to control the House, and they will likely gain several seats. Here is a map of the Districts http://www.vcsnet.com/State.ph... But just remember that there are 110 districts, of which the Democrats control 57. The lower the district number, the closer the district is to Detroit. The higher the number, the farther north.
Today we're excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.
In this quarter alone, the campaign collected more than 1,100 total contributions, with more than 83 percent of individual contributions from donors in Michigan. With just over 100 days to go before the general election, we have now raised more than our opponent brought in during the entire 2006 election cycle.
Congressman Walberg has done nothing to improve Michigan's job climate since taking office, but we fully expect him to do whatever it takes to keep his seat in Washington. That's why it's so important for us to keep working hard to defend against the impending negative attacks from Walberg's wealthy donors.
Thanks to everyone in the netroots community for your continued support!
I know that it's easy here at Swing State Project to get seduced by all the glitz and glamour of U.S. House races. (That sounds hilarious when you think about how incredibly nerdy it sounds, but, well, there's a kernel of truth there.) Bear with me for a minute, though, as we drop down to the real meat and potatoes of American politics: state legislatures. I'll try to keep everyone updated in future months about developments in some of the biggest contests, but here's a primer to start with.
Here are some reasons why you should very much care. First, the states are often the crucibles for experimentation with progressive policy. That's especially been the case over the last few decades of Republican domination at the national level, although hopefully that will change once we actually have a progressive trifecta in Washington.
Consider where the movement toward civil rights and marriage or civil union rights for gays and lesbians has occurred: it's been purely at the state level. If and when truly universal health care happens, given the difficulty of getting it through Congress, it's most likely to happen in some of the states (and the some of the boldest moves in that direction have already occurred in the states, such as in Vermont and Oregon... and not coincidentally, back when they had MDs for governors).
Also, the state legislatures are our bench for federal office. The GOP may be the party of wealthy self-funders popping out of nowhere, but the Democrats are largely a meritocratic bunch and many of our best have stints in the state legislature on their resume, where they honed their skills and built their networks. Just as one example, consider what the guy who, four years ago today, was representing the 13th District of the Illinois State Senate is up to now.
Finally, in most states, the state legislatures control the redistricting process, not just for themselves but for U.S. House districts as well. The entire shape and terrain of the nationwide electoral battlefield for the entire 2010s will be determined by who has control of the legislature in key states following the 2010 election. This is partly why we were so hosed during the early 2000s: GOP-held legislatures in states like Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan drew remarkably GOP-favorable maps. And even when the blue wave came in 2006, the pro-GOP gerrymanders probably saved them the loss of even more seats.
Some GOP-held legislatures are ready to flip now; others have the Democrats in a somewhat deeper hole, but a sustained push over two electoral cycles can have the Democrats in control in 2010. Let's take a look at the key playing fields for this year and the next few years, starting with Republican-held legislatures that are within striking distance. (The rank order is mostly gut-level, although I did use some informal metrics involving the size of the state, how close the gap between the two parties is, and how much is at stake for that state with 2010 redistricting.)
First, I’d like to begin by thanking all of you for your support. Because of contributions from people like you, our campaign has just been ranked in CQ’s list of the top ten best funded challengers in the country. The voters in Michigan’s 9th Congressional district are tired of the failed leadership they’ve gotten from my opponent, Congressman Joe Knollenberg, for the past sixteen years, and they’re eager for a real change in Washington.
As a former Lt. Commander in the Navy, I wanted to take a moment to write to you this week as we pass the fifth anniversary of one of the most shameful moments in recent American history. On May 1st, 2003, President George W. Bush landed on the USS Abraham Lincoln, in front of the now-infamous “Mission Accomplished” banner and said these words: “My fellow Americans, major combat operations in Iraq have ended. In the battle of Iraq, the United States and our allies have prevailed.”
It's reached the point in Florida and Michigan where neither remaining candidate in the Democratic Party Marathon is even trying to sound reasonable, much less presidential. Hillary Clinton is arguing the unsupportable position that the original primaries should count, as originally formatted, even though they were held in opposition to party rules and with the understanding by all candidates that they would not count.
Obabma is arguing an equally unsupportable position that, because the political powers in the two states (and in Florida, this means the Republican-controlled legislature) broke the rules, the people of two of the largest and most critical states should be disenfranchised with regard to the party nominee.
normboyd40 :: Methinks I Smell Raw Politics: Boyd's eye View
The 2008 Federal Election may be 280 days away, but life on the trail in a targeted congressional district has already heated up. We in the blogosphere do so much to impact the process, from contributions to candidates and volunteering our time (sometimes across the nation thanks to technology such as virtual phone banks) to simply giving attention to well deserving candidates who aren't receiving any from the mainstream media. But what is it like inside of these campaigns that we track, influence, and cheer for?
I work for Gary Peters for Congress in Michigan's 9th Congressional district. I'm focused on the campaign. I could tell you in my sleep that the district is currently represented by Republican Joe Knollenberg, however it has a Partisan Voter Index of R+0, making it one of our best pickup opportunities. I can rattle off the cities equally as effortlessly, and even give you a tour to some of the districts many landmarks including The Palace in Auburn Hills (home of the NBA's Pistons and WNBA's Shock), the Somerset Mall in Troy, the Detroit Zoo in Royal Oak, or the Fallen Heroes Memorial in Pontiac.
Today the SEIU Michigan Council has endorsed Gary Peters, in his congressional campaign for Michigan's 9th district.
"Our members firmly believe that Gary Peters is the best candidate to represent the citizens of Michigan's 9th District," said Phil Thompson, SEIU Michigan State Council president and executive vice president of SEIU Local 517M. "He has a proven record of standing by working families, particularly when it comes to providing access to quality and affordable health care."
Gary has also received the earliest Congressional endorsement from the AFL-CIO, been endorsed by the Michigan Building Trades, American Federation of Teachers, and the local Operating Engineers, Communication Workers, and Pipefitters.
Peters was proud to accept the endorsement, saying "I'm extremely pleased and honored to get the support of the SEIU Michigan State Council. The SEIU believes, as I believe, that working families deserve a voice in Washington and that it is time for a change."
Michigan's 9th District is currently represented by Joe Knollenberg. Last year Knollenberg received a dismal 0% rating on labor issues in the AFSCME House Scorecard.
Today we're excited to announce that our campaign raised more than $427,000 in the second quarter, which breaks the previous fundraising record we set earlier this year. Combined with the last three quarters when Sen. Schauer outraised incumbent Tim Walberg, we have brought in more than $1.33 million and have more than $928,000 cash on hand.
