This map is extremely ugly, but it gets the job done. The main reason for its ugliness is the VRA retrogression rule. So, in order to use white Democrats to our advantage, almost all the whites in the VRA-protected 4th and 7th districts are Republicans. Likewise, in the other districts, almost all the Democrats are white. If not for the VRA, we could have made a much more compact map with a nearly invincible 8-0 delegation.
The main goals here were:
1. Make an Obama district for Kratovil.
2. Knock out Bartlett and Harris.
3. Make almost all the other districts 60% Obama.
Welcome to my first diary, I altered the numbering of the congressional district to be geographically oriented. The goal of this diary is to produce an 8-0 Maryland delegation. After playing with the map for a few weeks, I produced 7 districts that are Democratic and another district for former Congressman Frank Kratovil. The easiest way to make the district 8-0 is to split the Eastern Shore. Originally I had a 6-0-2 map in which the 1st District was slightly McCain and the 6th District was slightly Obama, after editing, they both became more Democratic. I have have also tried to clean-up the look of the current 2nd&3rd Districts.
1st District: open (blue) Democrat: frm. Rep. Frank Kratovil?
Advantage: Tossup, Likely D w/Kratovil
2008 results: Obama 50.1% McCain 48.0% Other 1.9%
Race: 73.6% W,15.8% AA,5.6% H,3.5% A,1.5% O
2nd District (current 5th): Minority Whip Steny Hoyer (green) Democrat: Steny Hoyer
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 59.8% McCain 39.1% Other 1.1%
Race: 60.6% W,32.0% AA,3.2% H,2.2% A,2.0% O
3rd District : Rep. John Sarbanes (purple) Democrat: John Sarbanes
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 58.2% McCain 39.8% Other 2.0%
Race: 67.5% W,21.2% AA,4.9% H,4.2% A,2.1% O
4th District (current 2nd): Rep. Dutch Ruppersberger (D), Rep. Andy Harris (R)? (red) Democrat: Dutch Ruppersberger
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 58.9% McCain 39.1% Other 2.0%
Race: 65.0% W,26.4% AA,3.3% H,3.4% A,1.8% O
5th District (current 7th): Rep. Elijah Cummings (yellow) VRA Democrat: Elijah Cummings
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 77.0% McCain 21.7% Other 1.3%
Race: 33.9% W,56.2% AA,2.7% H,5.3% A,1.7% O
6th District (current 4th): Rep. Donna Edwards* (teal) VRA *lives outside current 4th and new 6th
Democrat: Donna Edwards
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 77.9% McCain 21.1% Other 1.0%
Race: 30.7% W,53.0% AA,10.2% H,4.6% A,1.5% O
7th District (current 6th) : Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (R)(gray) Democrat: Jen Dougherty? thoughts?
Advantage: Likely Dem
2008 results: Obama 55.2% McCain 42.9% Other 1.9%
Race: 64.6% W,11.6% AA,11.3% H,10.6% A,1.8% O
8th District: Rep. Chris Van Hollen (light purple) Democrat: Chris Van Hollen
Advantage: Safe Dem
2008 results: Obama 61.6% McCain 36.8% Other 1.6%
Race: 65.8% W,13.8% AA,12.2% H,6.5% A,1.7% O
This diary is meant to be a little fun given all the heavy redistricting diaries we have on here. The one thing that's always struck me about my home state is how it's so diverse and interesting in spite of being so small. This diary will try to explain how the various cultural groups fit together by using Dave's mapping program, along with accompanying demographic and political data.
So yeah, lately in my few spare moments I've been working on the perfect Maryland legislative redistricting map. Before I release that though, I want to talk a little about the thought process that goes into such a map. Today's diary will show how the population in Maryland has shifted over the past decade, and what this will mean for redistricting in my beloved home state.
This is my version of Maryland using Daves Redistricting 2.1. Looking at the 2010 Census data incorporated into the Application, I see no reason at all why Democrats should not create an 8-0 map.
Actually, I drew a couple versions of a map. The main part of this diary deals with "Version 1", an 8-0 map which I believe would have the best chance of being enacted in Maryland. My alternative "Version 2" is discussed at the end of the diary.
Obviously an exercise, inspired by the flood of 8-0 Democratic Marylands. Originally I had attempted to make five Republican seats in Maryland, but while it was possible to make five seats won by McCain it would have been a huge overreach and Republicans would have been unlikely to hold all five seats in even a neutral year (possibly none in a Democratic wave). Given that, the exercise became a matter of shoring up four seats as much as possible. While Maryland is quite a blue state these years the Democratic voting base is heavily concentrated so forcing it into four ultra Democratic seats was entirely possible. The remaining four Republican seats all ended up with a 44-54 Obama/McCain lean.
CD1 (Blue): W85 B10, O44 M54 Much of Anne Arundel county, coastal Baltimore county and smallish bits of Harford and Prince George's. PVI R+9
CD2 (Green): W31 B63 O87 M12 Most of Baltimore city with tiny amounts of Baltimore county. PVI D+34
CD3 (Dark Magenta): W80 B16 O44 M54 The entire Eastern Shore, all of Calvert and St. Mary's, and parts of Charles and St George's in south Maryland, and a piece of Harford in the north. PVI R+9
CD4 (Red): W21 B69 O91 M9 Mostly Prince George's, with a little of northern Charles D+38
CD5 (Gold): W47 B36 O77 M21 Northern Prince George's with a tendril stretching to Annapolis (the Severn river does maintain contiguity) and toward (though not into) Baltimore city. D+24
CD6 (Teal): W87 B7 O44 M54 Mostly Baltimore county but spilling over into adjacent counties. PVI R+9
CD7 (Dark Grey): W58 B15 A12 H12 O73 M25 The most Democratic parts of Montgomery county. D+17
CD8 (Slate Blue): W88 B6 O44 M54 Western Maryland and the less Democratic parts of Montgomery county. PVI R+9
This is the third of my diaries on the state of Maryland. What I have found is that there are many, many ways to draw the state of Maryland with eight Democratic seats. There are a couple things that I think any map of Maryland must do, however, in order to have a practical chance of passing:
*Keep the Eastern Shore intact in one district, to avoid upsetting the Shore legislators
*Give all Democratic incumbents a district that they would be okay with. None should have to move to represent a new district.
*Make sure that the district drawn for Frank Kratovil is one where he can win the primary. The last thing we want is to put in too much of Prince George County or Baltimore so that a liberal from those areas who cannot win the general makes it out of the primary.
*And of course, keep all districts Democratic, except for the district where Kratovil runs which should be around PVI EVEN so that he wins it.
Here are some possibilities I have come up with to accomplish those goals.
Here is my take on an 8-0 Maryland. I must thank abgin for this incredible inspiration of using stripe-style gerrymandering (the famous map he did of NY). I employed this technique in reverse - I asked myself, how can I link all of these heavy Dem areas to Republican areas to dilute their votes? I thought of where their votes are concentrated, and the biggest source is Northern Maryland and the Baltimore Suburbs.
So, I set out to link Dem heavy areas to Republican areas in Northern Maryland, and it worked well. The map is not too bad looking, although Ruppersberger and Sarbanes would have trouble fitting into this map, but they can move. Hoyer and Van Hollen would have decent district and maintain a lot of their territory. Barlett and Harris are completely drawn out, and I managed to make two VRA districts that are 51% black, while they take in as many heavy R precincts as possible in Northern Maryland the Baltimore Suburbs so they can leave liberal white areas and other AA areas to shore up other districts.
I wanted the Obama-McCain lean to be roughly 60%-40%, and I did well in that regard, I think only one is 57% Obama and the rest are over 58% Obama, so all districts are around D+5 to D+8, with the VRA districts being more Dem heavy. The only district I think that would be in trouble would be the Eastern Shore based one, but if Kratovil runs, it is his. So, here you go!
Maryland, my Maryland. The Democrats currently have a 6-2 edge in representation in this fairly blue state, and with redistricting just around the corner, the question on Democrats' minds is how can we make this an even larger edge? An 8-0 map has seemed impossible to make where it would sufficiently protect the incumbent Democrats, although I'm confident that someone will make one. I know there have been recent attempts but those created an essentially perfect swing district in MD-01 to get us to 7-1 (or 8-0).
My goal is to create a 7-1 map where MD-01 is sufficiently blue so that a moderate Democrat like Frank Kratovil can retake the district and hold it while accounting for:
1.Based on Nathaniel90's recent "Redistricting Outlook" that discussed Maryland, it appears that I need to keep two minority-majority black districts while I pursue the goal of 7-1.
2. Keeping the Democratic incumbents' hometowns in their respective districts (I actually ended up drawing both Republicans out of their residences).
3. Increasing the partisan advantage of the more "vulnerable" incumbents.
As for how this map turned into a monstrosity...When you add together the sandbox atmosphere of Dave's Redistricting App with the already crazily drawn districts in Maryland, you can end up with an absurd map like this one.
NOTE: I used the new population estimates with voting precincts.
My last diary attempted to draw an effective 8-0 map of Maryland. This ran into problems, because my idea of drawing MD-01 across the Chesapeake from the Eastern Shore to St. Mary's county left Steny Hoyer without a clear district to run in. In light of that, I have played around some more with the map of Maryland, and this is the best way I have come up with to guarantee Hoyer a district while drawing 8 democratic districts: