Sen. John Warner will announce tomorrow at the University of Virginia whether or not he intends to seek a sixth term, according to two top Virginia sources. Warner is planning a 2 p.m. news conference on the grounds of the Charlottesville, Va., school, where he took his law degree over 50 years ago. The Virginian will give his speech near the statue of Thomas Jefferson on the steps of the school's famous Rotunda, adding a fitting Warner flourish to the event.
His office didn't immediately reply to inquiries about his plans.
Virginia and national political officials have been waiting with anticipation for the Warner decision. His retirement would set off a scramble for the open seat, perhaps pitting former Gov. Mark R. Warner against Rep. Thomas M. Davis or former Gov. Jim Gilmore.
Given John Warner's recent calls for a minor scaleback of U.S. troop levels in Iraq, the smart money says that a retirement announcement is in store for us tomorrow. With Tom Davis running for Senate, Democrats would have an excellent shot at picking up his trending-Democratic 11th district House seat (Gore lost this district by 7 points in 2000, but Bush only won it by 1 point four years later). And while Davis' base in the DC suburbs would help him against the Democratic nominee, his profile is no match for former Democratic Governor Mark Warner's. The only question is: will Mark answer the call? Or will he bide his time to accept either running mate status on the Presidential ticket, or take another shot at the Governor's office in 2009--a position that he very enjoyed?
A Senate bid by Gilmore in a hotly contested race could be a bruising battle. The ex-governor likely would face strong competition for the Republican nomination from U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, a Fairfax County moderate who raised about $600,000 in the last quarter.
The state party would have to decide whether to hold a primary election or a convention to decide on a nominee. A convention, which the GOP has traditionally favored in Virginia, would appear to benefit Gilmore because it attracts the party's hard-core conservative base. By contrast, a primary might give the well-financed Davis an edge.
Davis spokesman Brian McNicoll said of Gilmore, "He's won two statewide elections. He certainly couldn't be taken lightly."
Given how utterly disastrous Gilmore's term as Governor was, I warmly invite him to seek his party's nomination.
As we all know by now, the DSCC is heavily courting former Virginia Governor Mark Warner to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008--and, remarkably, Warner is not ruling it out, even if longtime incumbent John Warner decides not to retire.
What this creates is a possible dream scenario in Virginia: John Warner, having survived a close call by a self-funding Mark Warner in 1996, had a difficult enough time beating back a challenge against a political unknown, winning by only 5 points. At the time, the elder Warner remarked: "It was tough - a tough two years." The conventional wisdom is that John Warner, who will be 81 in 2008, would not mind another term in the Senate--he just doesn't want to campaign for it.
So, Mark Warner enters the race. John Warner gets the spooks and announces an early retirement, making way for his preferred successor: 11th district Rep. Tom Davis (R). In fact, the WaPo has already indicated that Warner has signaled Davis to get ready:
However, some doubt John Warner's commitment to run. One Republican active in Virginia politics said that Warner has told U.S. Rep. Thomas M. Davis III (R-Va.) to prepare to run if the senator decides against another bid. "Davis is actively calling people and is saying on the calls that he has been told by Warner to get ready," the source said.
Davis would be a pretty strong candidate for the Republicans: he currently represents one of their weaker areas of the state--the rapidly diversifying D.C. suburbs in Prince William and Fairfax counties. This is the one region that has been nudging Virginia closer and closer to the left. Take a look at the district's chronolgy:
2004: John Kerry wins 49.29% of the district's vote to George Bush's 49.92%
2005: Tim Kaine (D) wins 55.67% of the vote to Jerry Kilgore's 42.42%
2006: Jim Webb (D) wins 54.69% of the vote to George Allen's 44.20%
So Davis could be strong statewide against an average Virginia Democrat, but he wouldn't stand a chance against Mark Warner, who retired with a mind-boggling 80% approval rate. And with the recent robust victories of Tim Kaine and Jim Webb in the 11th, Democrats would clearly be well-poised to capture this open seat with a strong candidate. Any idea who we'd run for it?
Man oh man, what a glorious twofer it would be: a pick-up in both the Senate and House--both of which will be badly-needed to protect and expand the Democratic majorities. If Chuck Schumer pulls this off (and he has had some stellar success in the past in this area--see Missouri, 2006), he could very well be elevated to demigod status.
As we look at the 2008 Senate map, and where we have pick-up opportunities, there are some obvious choices for who would be our best candidate, and there are some not so obvious choices.
From Sebelius in Kansas to Allen in Maine to Easley in North Carolina to a number of choices in New Hampshire to fewer choices in Idaho, there is much to discuss.
Who is your ideal 2008 Senate candidate? Who would you like to see run?
According to the Washington post, (link http://blog.washingt...) former presidential possibility mark warner is considering a run at Virginia's senate seat in 2008. He's spoken with Chuck Schumer repeatedly, and will not rule out a run, with or without Senator John Warner running. If (Mark) Warner does indeed run, this would be momentous. For one, it's another senate seat that opens up, possibly expanding our majority. Two, he might bring out voters and maybe even put Virginia into the dems column in the prez race for the first time since 1964. It could also bring out voters and get other house candidates elected in Virginia. This would be a top-tier race (Assuming both Warners run, mark Vs another candidate, such as Rep Tom Davis might lean more to our favor) and his running would have immense repercussions come 08. Let's hope he dives in!
