SSP Daily Digest: 6/3

by: Crisitunity

Wed Jun 03, 2009 at 2:23 PM EDT

• NC-Sen: It never quite seemed likely, but Elizabeth Edwards silenced any speculation that she might run for Senate against Richard Burr next year.

• KY-Sen: Here's a new name sniffing out the Kentucky Senate primary. A staffer for Rep. Ed Whitfield from KY-01 just bought both domain names for "whitfieldforsenate.com" and "whitfieldforgovernor.com" (and inexplicably paid $800 for the two names). Maybe SoS Trey Grayson may have some company in the primary if Jim Bunning truly does bail out?

• VA-Gov: Ex-Del. Brian Moran leaked an internal poll from Greenberg Quinlan Rosner to Political Wire. Lo and behold, it shows Moran in the lead, with 29% to 27% for Creigh Deeds and 26% for Terry McAuliffe. (Meaning that in the last week, each of the three primary candidates have led a poll.) (UPDATE: PPP points out a flaw here: this isn't a topline, but the result from a subsample that's disposed to do well for Moran: people who've participated in Democratic primaries prior to last year's presidential race.)

Fundraising numbers for the three candidates also just came out: McAuliffe is way ahead on the money front, with $1.8 mil raised last quarter and $1.3 mil CoH ($7 mil total). Deeds raised $676K with $521K CoH ($3.8 mil total), and Moran raised $844K with $700 CoH ($4.8 mil total).

• MN-Gov: With T-Paw getting out, a flood of second-tier Republicans has spilled out in search of the nomination. State Sen. David Hann, state Sen. Geoff Michel, state Rep. Marty Seifert, state Rep. Paul Kohls, and former legislator Charlie Weaver are "interested." Former Auditor Pat Anderson is going so far as to say she'll announce in a month or two. Others mentioned include state Rep. Laura Brod, national committee member Brian Sullivan, and former state House speaker and current Labor and Industry Commissioner Steve Sviggum. The Star-Tribune also mentioned former Rep. Jim Ramstad (who'd do well in the general but may be too moderate to survive the nominating convention), state Sen. minority leader David Senjem, and one very big wild card... Norm Coleman, although his dragging-out of the Senate race can't have helped his favorables. One prominent name who apparently isn't interested: Rep. Michele Bachmann.

• MI-Gov: The Republican field in the Michigan governor's race got even more crowded, as Oakland Co. Sheriff Rick Bouchard got in. (Bouchard lost the 2006 Senate race to Debbie Stabenow.) Bouchard's entry was faciliated when his boss, Oakland Co. Exec L. Brooks Patterson, declined to run -- but Bouchard may do exactly what Patterson would have done, which is split the Detroit suburban vote with AG Mike Cox, making it easier for Rep. Pete Hoekstra from the state's west to sneak through.

• CO-04: Ex-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave fired off a rather unhinged-sounding fundraising letter on behalf of her new employers in the culture war, the anti-abortion Susan B. Anthony List. This may actually work to Rep. Betsy Markey's advantage; she made reference to Musgrave's letter in her own appeal for contributions.

• FL-17: Politics1 has an interesting, if a bit unsavory, rumor coming out of south Florida: 83-year-old former Rep. Carrie Meek may get on the ballot in FL-17, essentially to act as a one-term placeholder for her son, Rep. Kendrick Meek. (If he lost the Senate race, she would re-retire in 2012 and thus let him get his old job back. Or, if Meek won the Senate race, she'd still retire and let someone new take over FL-17.) Meek denied the rumor, though, to National Journal.

• FL-25: Here's a potentially big name to take on Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who beat Joe Garcia by a small margin in 2008. Miami Mayor Manny Diaz is reportedly taking a look at the race; his name has also been mentioned in connection with the open Lt. Gov. slot.

• NC-11: PPP's Tom Jensen looks at possible Democratic successors in this R+6 district if Rep. Heath Shuler gives up the seat to run for Senate. He cites state Sens. John Snow and Joe Sam Queen as likeliest. (He also links to a great map from Civitas that calculates the PVI for all of North Carolina's state Senate districts.)

• SC-01: Rep. Henry Brown threw a "thank you" party in Myrtle Beach for his supporters, and at least 11 people walked away with the best possible tokens of his gratitude: diarrhea and nausea. State health officials are investigating to see if it was the result of food poisoning or just of the Republican rhetoric. Also, 2008 challenger Linda Ketner, who came close to knocking off Brown as an openly lesbian candidate in a dark-red district, may not be looking to run again. She did a refreshingly honest interview with FireDogLake, maybe a little too refreshing vis-a-vis her future viability, in terms of referring to "the conservative, religious crazy vote" and outing several prominent South Carolina politicians.

• UT-LG: A third generation of Romneys is getting warmed up (in a third state). Mitt Romney's 33-year-old son Josh has been in talks with soon-to-be-Gov. Gary Herbert about the open Lieutenant Governor's position.

• AL-St. Senate: Democrats can still be a downballot force in Alabama, managing to hold a state Senate seat in a deep-red part of rural Alabama north of Mobile. State Rep. Mark Keahey (who's only 28) narrowly defeated Republican former state Rep. Greg Albritton, in a special election triggered by the January death of Democratic Sen. Pat Lindsey. (UPDATE: Actually, it turns out that the margin wasn't so tight. Keahey crushed Albritton by a devastating 58-42 margin.)

• NH-St. House: In another special election, Democrats held a state House seat based in Lebanon, New Hampshire, as fire captain Andy White beat Republican Randy Wagoner. It's Democratic-leaning turf, but the GOP turned this into a proxy battle over gay marriage (White is a vote in favor of it), and out-of-district money enabled Wagoner to outspend White at least 4-to-1.

FL-21, FL-25: On Fire In Florida

by: Crisitunity

Tue Oct 28, 2008 at 7:09 PM EDT

Raul Martinez (D): 44
Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 45
(MoE: ±5%)

Research 2000 for Daily Kos (10/20-22, likely voters, 9/23-25 in parentheses):

Joe Garcia (D): 43 (41)
Mario Diaz-Balart (R-inc): 46 (45)
(MoE: ±5%)

Two last stragglers from this weekend's poll blitz to discuss: both the South Florida races involving the Diaz-Balart brothers are almost neck-and-neck as we near the finish line. They're similar districts (the 21st is R+6, the 25th is R+4, both are more than 60% Hispanic, most of which is Cuban-American), obviously similar incumbents (Mario is the slightly more conservative one), and the challengers are similarly close.

Raul Martinez, the former mayor of Hialeah (the population center of the 21st), is trailing Lincoln Diaz-Balart by one point. Among the 17% who've voted already, Martinez leads 55-42. While it's not surprising that the locally well-known Martinez is performing well in this one-time reliable GOP stronghold, it is very surprising that Obama is leading in this district 50-45 (and 55-42 among early voters). (Although given dramatic changes in registration numbers, maybe not that surprising.)

In the 25th, a district which is further out in the suburbs (and includes a whole lot of empty territory in the Everglades), Joe Garcia is back by 3, a slightly closer race than one month ago, and is leading among independents 42-41 (much better than the 4-point deficit among indies last month). Of the 12% who've voted already, Garcia leads 52-46.

How They Repay Us

by: DavidNYC

Sat Mar 15, 2008 at 9:00 AM EDT

In a flame-fanning tirade on Spanish-language radio last week, Díaz-Balart called the tax hike [to pay for SCHIP] an "attack on the Cuban-American community." He added: "It would hurt an industry specifically in Miami-Dade, in South Florida, an industry that is almost entirely Hispanic: those who make cigars by hand, which is a cultural tradition. That industry will not survive."

Lincoln Diaz-Balart, disrupting Tom Lantos's memorial service:

The House had a meltdown today in the middle of the memorial service for the late Rep. Tom Lantos, a Holocaust survivor who was chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. The service, in the Capitol's historic Statuary Hall, was disrupted when a Republican House member unexpectedly called for a procedural vote.

And that's when all hell broke loose.

House Democrats were furious, charging the procedural motion was disrespectful. "Very bad taste, very" as one senior House Democratic aide put it.

Republicans were apparently worried that Democrats were about to force debate on contempt-of-Congress citations against White House Chief of Staff Josh Bolten and former White House counsel Harriet Miers. Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R-Fla.) is the member who hit the panic button, so to speak, and called the procedural vote. His real purpose in calling the procedural motion was to protest the lack of a vote on the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act - before the contempt debate started.

Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, grandstanding about that stupid Petraeus ad:

The chair of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, R-Fla., said the ad "is outrageous and it is deplorable" and called upon her "colleagues on both sides of the aisle" to condemn the ad and, somewhat inexplicably, to apologize to the general for the impugning of his integrity.

Democrats everywhere know that we don't need people like this in Congress. It goes without saying that the DCCC leadership should realize this, too.

FL-25: Enough of Mario Already, Ask Joe to Get In!

by: Progressive America

Mon Nov 19, 2007 at 9:57 AM EST

It all started a few weeks ago. Joe Garcia, who serves as Miami-Dade Democratic Party Chairman and Cuban American National Foundation Executive Director (as well as a host of other activities), was interviewed by The Hill. In the interview, he said he would consider running for Congress in the 25th district, if he was asked to.