Forty-one percent say they would vote for a [constitutional amendment to] ban [same-sex marriage], and 40 percent say they would vote to continue gay marriage. The rest either would not vote or say they are not sure. [...]
The overwhelming majority of Iowans - 92 percent - say gay marriage has brought no real change to their lives. [...]
The poll shows that 26 percent of Iowans favor April's unanimous court ruling legalizing same-sex marriage, 43 percent oppose it and 31 percent don't care much or are not sure.
Despite the 43 percent opposition to the ruling, 61 percent of Iowans say other issues will influence their decision on whether to vote to retain Iowa Supreme Court justices in the 2010 elections.
On May 6, 2009, the Governor of Maine signed the law ending discrimination in marriage for same-sex couples, but it is already being threatened. Our fight to protect civil rights through marriage equality is just beginning out here in Maine. Almost immediately, national opponents of equality declared they wanted to turn back the clock and are working tirelessly to place a measure on this November's ballot - modeled after California's Prop 8 - to take away the right of gay and lesbian couples to marry in Maine.
The national movement for civil rights is at a critical juncture on the issue of marriage equality. The phrase as Maine goes, so goes the nation has been used to describe Maine's bell weather potential and we expect it to ring true on national battleground for marriage equality. When this referendum goes to the ballot in November, Maine could become the first state to successfully defend marriage equality by a popular vote.
"Democratic Governor John Baldacci today signed into law a bill allowing gay marriage making Maine the fifth state to allow same sex marriage.
The Governor's signature came barely an hour after the measure won final approval in the legislature, with a final 31-8 vote in favor in the Maine Senate."
Baldacci, formerly an opponent of similar bills, noted that churches will not have to perform marriages for same sex couples under the legislation. Maine becomes the fifth state to currently allow same sex marriage. Four of the states are in the six state New England region (CT,MA,VT,ME) with the fifth being Iowa.
Time to check in on the state legislatures one more time before the election (I did a more detailed summary two weeks ago).
This week, the New York Times and the AP both had long pieces that provide good overviews of where the competitive chambers are. Interestingly, both pieces stopped to dwell on the Maine Senate, where, although Obama is poised to dominate at the top of the ticket, Democratic control (by a current 18-17 margin) could be lost. The whole chamber turns on one Dem-held open seat in York County, and public anger over a new alcoholic beverage tax. (Although doesn't everyone in that part of the state just go get their licka in New Hampshire?)
The biggest prize, and the only state where we've seen actual public polling of legislative races, is still the New York Senate. There aren't any more polls to report here, but one story of note is that Dennis Delano, the one Republican to present a serious challenge to any Democratic-held senate seat, is apparently running for office in violation of the Hatch Act, a federal law that prohibits municipal employees from running for partisan office (in this case, Delano is currently suspended from the Buffalo PD, but still receiving pay).
Our friends at the Burnt Orange Report have been closely following the Texas House race, which has provided the Democrats with an outside shot of flipping the chamber (Dems are currently down 79-71). They previously highlighted four GOP-held seats that were Lean Dem or Tossup, giving Democrats a route to a tied chamber. Recently, they upgraded one other race to Tossup: Carol Kent vs. Rep. Tony Goolsby in HD-102 in north Dallas. Although retaking the Texas House has been considered a two-cycle project, a table-running here would get it done this year. They also listed a number of Lean Republican seats that could flip with a strong-enough gale (HD-55, HD-101, HD-133, and Sherrie Matula in HD-129, whom I know has a few boosters at this site).
The Ballot Box blog at Governing Magazine has been profiling various legislatures in the past few months, and recently featured a few more, including the Ohio House. This is another one that initially seemed like a two-cycle project needing to be accomplished before 2010 redistricting, but this article seems surprisingly sanguine on a Democratic takeover, giving that a 50-50 shot. (Republicans currently control it 53-46, so four seats need to flip.) Two factors are seen at work: the Democrats' overall advantages in the ground game here, and the disproportionate impact of term limits on the Republicans, leaving 20 GOP seats open to only 6 Democratic seats open, with particularly strong possibilities in the Democratic-trending Columbus area.
They also profile the Michigan House, which Democrats currently control by a narrow 58-52 margin. The Republicans had early hopes to flip it, what with the unpopular Granholm administration and recall efforts against some representatives including Speaker Andy Dillon. However, the same dynamic in Ohio is playing out in Michigan, on perhaps an even bigger scale: Republicans are hurt by term limits, with 29 GOP open seats compared to 16 Democratic vacancies. And the GOP is reeling from the McCain campaign's abandonment of the state, leaving downballot operations in a vacuum.
Got any other information or predictions to share about a state legislature near you? Please chip in in the comments.
It's been a while since we've talked about state legislatures, so here are some bits and pieces on where we stand right now (if you need a primer on where the most hotly contested chambers are and what the margin of seats held is, see my previous diary here). New York remains the big prize, with Democrats within one flipped seat of a tied State Senate and two seats away from taking control. This is the only state I know of where individual races have been polled; over the past month Siena has polled 10 of the 62 races, and with one GOP-held open seat poised to fall to the Democrats, one Dem incumbent trailing a GOP challenger, and one GOP incumbent tied with his Democratic challenger, the outcome is too close to call.
In Texas, the House is possibly the next juiciest legislative target after the NY Senate, which looks more like a two-cycle project but might actually get done this year. Republicans currently hold the House 79-71. Burnt Orange Report recently put together an impressive set of projections, and it seems like a 75-75 split is possible if Dems run the table on the closest races.
They peg two Democratic challengers, Diana Maldonado (open seat in HD-52 in Austin's northern suburbs) and Chris Turner (against incumbent Bill Zedler in HD-96 in Ft. Worth's southern suburbs), as "Lean Dem," with two more potential Democratic pickups at the "Tossup" level (Joe Moody in an open seat in HD-78 in El Paso and Joel Redmond in an open seat in HD-144 in Houston's eastern suburbs). A Houston Chronicle article from yesterday seems to support this analysis; while it doesn't delve in to specific seats, it looks at fundraising and general mood to conclude "Climate is ripe for Texas House takeover."
Before looking at whether or not the Democrats can expect to get the magic sixty, lets review the seats which have the potential to flip, starting from the ones most likely to flip to the ones least likely to flip (anything not listed here means that we consider the seats to be completely safe). (Note, these are all Election Inspection's ratings)
Solid Democratic (Pick-up)
Virginia (Warner)
New Mexico (Domenici)
Leans Democratic
Sununu (New Hampshire)
Landrieu (Lousiana)
Colorado (Allard)
Stevens (Alaska)
Leans Republican
Smith (Oregon)
Coleman (Minnesota)
Collins (Maine)
Wicker (Mississippi-B)
McConnell (Kentucky)
Likely Republican (Open Seat retention)
Idaho (Craig)
Possible Darkhorse Races (Republican Incumbent)
Dole (North Carolina)
Cornyn (Texas)
Inhofe (Oklahoma)
Roberts (Kansas)
First of all, I think we can safely assume that Democrats will win in New Mexico and Virginia, so we can start off with a net gain of two seats for the Democrats. So, to start off with in the second session, the Democrats are basically guaranteed to start from a vantage point of 50 seats. With the way the Leans Democratic races have been playing out (including the newly added AK-Sen), I'm pretty confident that the Democrats will win at least three and probably all four (Pollster shows Democrats leading by at least 5 points in Colorado, New Hampshire, and Alaska) and while it seems like it's close in Louisiana, with the exception of Zogby, Landrieu has shown to have a consistent lead of no less than 3 points (with the most recent Rasmussen poll giving Landrieu a 5 point edge). So, we'll give the Democrats three more seats and put them up to 53 seats (by the way, this doesn't include Bernie Sanders and Joe Lieberman who caucus with the Democrats). Alright, so the score now should be at Democrats 53 guaranteed seats and Republicans with 34 guaranteed seats. Now then, let's assume that Republicans win all of the seats which I consider to be either Likely or a potential Dark-horse (which, realistically, is more likely to happen than not), Republicans will have 38 seats (from now on, I'm going to consider Sanders to be a Democrat, for the purposes of voting, which gives the Democrats 54 seats and I'm going to consider Lieberman a wild-card as far as voting in concerned since, even though Lieberman has taken a more Conservative position on several issues, he is still considered to be more likely to support Democratic domestic agendas than Republican ones). So we have a score of 54-39-1, which means that for Democrats to win a filibuster-proof Senate which doesn't rely on Lieberman, they'll have to win 6 additional seats on top of the 5 which I'm projecting for them to win already, now how realistic a shot to Democrats have at this?
I believe that more likely than not, Democrats will win in Louisiana, so we'll give the Democrats that extra seat which puts the score at 55-39-1 (5 undecided). I also think that Republicans should win in Kentucky. so the score now stands at 55-40-1 (4 undecided), which also basically eliminates any reasonable possibility of Democrats getting to the magic 60 number without Lieberman (which, might not be as bad as people think). So, that means that whether or not the Democrats can get to a filibuster proof senate rests on Minnesota, Maine, Oregon, and Mississippi-B. Mississippi-B and Oregon look to be within striking distance but Maine and Minnesota, seem to be moving away from us, so right now, I'd say that, at most, Democrats will probably end up with 57 seats (including Sanders) Republicans with 42 seats, and Joe Lieberman as a wild-card in the Senate.
Doesn't look like we're going to get our filibuster-proof majority this time around, but we'll do well enough that it's possible we can set 2010 up to get there.
Let's tally up all the turnovers in statewide and legislative races last night. Democratic pick-ups are in blue; Republican pick-ups in red. Italics denote a close race that appears to be going to a recount.
Kentucky: Governor/Lt. Governor (59%)
Maine: ME-HD93 (53.8%)
New House margin: 90D-59R-2I
Mississippi: Secretary of State (59%; open), Insurance Commissioner (57%; open), MS-SD02 (61%), MS-SD04 (57%), MS-SD18 (52%), MS-SD29 (57%), MS-SD43 (52%), MS-HD01 (54%), MS-HD15 (58%), MS-HD43 (47%), MS-HD71 (53%), MS-HD99 (52%), MS-HD111 (50%)
New Senate margin: 28D-24R (Chamber flip)
New House margin: 75D-47R
New Jersey: NJ-SD01 (56%), NJ-SD02 (57%), NJ-SD12 (54%), NJ-AD02, NJ-AD08, NJ-AD12, NJ-AD14.
New Senate margin: 23D-17R.
New Assembly margin: 48D-32R.
I just got an email from the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee passing on the good news that Democrats in Maine flipped a State House seat from red to blue in last night's special election.
This is the first in what will hopefully be a series of diaries examining the results of the Democratic victory in the 2006 midterm election. Particular attention will be given to the margin of victory to locate GOP targets and Democratic defends for 2008.
Today we will be looking at the Democratic takeover of New England
