U.S. House, District 1 (At-Large)
Democratic Primary
Driscoll , John Dem 70,205 49%
Hunt , Jim Dem 59,425 42%
Candee , Robert Dem 12,476 9%
U.S. Senate
Republican Primary
Kelleher , Bob GOP 26,765 36%
Lange , Michael GOP 16,959 23%
Bushman , Kirk GOP 15,393 21%
Lovaas , Patty GOP 7,604 10%
Pearson , Anton GOP 4,215 6%
Garnett , Shay GOP 2,774 4%
We already know about Bob Kelleher, but isn't John Driscoll also a perennial candidate?
John Driscoll AND Bob Kelleher? What's going on here? Some sort of love affair with perennial candidates or something? Or did Montana voters just not really care?
Mason-Dixon polls Montana's at-large House seat (5/19-21, registered voters):
Jim Hunt (D): 20
Denny Rehberg (R-inc): 52
Mike Fellows (L): 5
Undecided: 23
(MoE: ±4%)
Hunt, a Helena attorney, starts this race well behind. Despite some early statewide advertising, he only has 39% name recognition. Hunt does have some room for growth -- he only garners support from 48% of Democrats and 16% of independents -- but Rehberg's solid favorables (55%) and job approval (56%) will be tough to crack.
Matt Singer over at Left in the West has a good summary of the latest Montana-At-Large House race rumors:
So what's going on with the Congressional race here in Montana? Recently, I've been hearing three names over and over again:
Bill Kennedy -- Bill is the lone Democratic County Commission in Yellowstone County. I'm hearing that he's definitely throwing his hat into this ring, but there's been no announcement, so take it with the same grain of salt that you take anything in the political rumor mill. That said, Bill brings some strengths to this race. He represents a swing county that is Dennis Rehberg's base. He lost the race for Secretary of State in 2004, but I hear he appreciates the reasons for that defeat and has vowed to not repeat the mistakes. If there are "factions" in the Democratic Party, Bill and I are from different ones. I worked for and supported Jon Ellingson for S.O.S. in 2004. Bill was John Morrison's primary treasurer in 2006, while I supported Jon Tester. All that said, Bill has always struck me as a genuinely nice guy and good human being. With the right kind of campaign, he could be a formidable opponent to a huckster like Rehberg.
Jim Foley -- A former top aide to both Pat Williams and Max Baucus, Jim Foley has flirted with running for office for years. A recent Roll Call article said rumors were spreading that he was eyeing a race for Congress. Both the DCCC, which works on recruiting for these campaigns, and Jim himself refused to comment. That said, the story wouldn't have mentioned him if someone hadn't placed it and it wouldn't have been placed for no reason. He's probably feeling out the waters. His strength? A huge percentage of members of Congress are former staff people who understand the grueling work it takes to get there. His weakness? He's been based for years in Missoula, so he'll have to deal with the (often exaggerated) implications of being tied to the progressive hotbed of Montana, but he'll do it with few of the benefits. Jim himself is not beloved by the Missoula 'roots. Final Note: I don't have this on any authority, so don't quote me, but I'd guess Jim Foley would not jump into this race until after Rehberg explicitly says he's running for re-election. Jim knows the tougher race Rehberg expects, the more likely he is to jump into the Senate race. Jim is loyal and he wouldn't look to set up a tougher race for his former boss. Again, this is just my gut, so take it with a half a grain of salt.
Dennis McDonald -- The current chair of the Democratic Party in Montana, Dennis may find his background as a rancher and relative political outsider comes in more useful as a candidate than as a behind-the-scenes manager. Dennis is a founder of R-CALF, has deep connections across rural Montana, and could undermine part of Dennis's base. He'd continue the successful formula that has worked for Montana Democrats -- run a rancher or farmer who is good on gun issues and can be forceful on trade, keep the base unified, and win. What's his biggest weakness? He's never been a candidate, much less a statewide one in a high-profile race. And he doesn't receive the natural political benefit of that, since as chair of a political party, he's relatively easy to paint as a typical insider.
Here's my dream scenario: an aggressive, credible Montana Democrat tosses his hat in the ring, giving Republican Denny Rehberg an extra incentive to vacate his House seat and take on Democratic Senator Max Baucus that same year. Baucus beats back Rehberg, like he did in 1996, and Democrats have a serious shot to reclaim the House seat that Democrat Pat Williams held until 1996. Two stones to kill one bird--that sort of thing.
Of course: A) this is extremely wishful thinking, and B) I'm sure that neither Max Baucus nor the DSCC would look upon such a strategy with good humor. Baucus has what it takes to beat Rehberg, but I'm sure he'd prefer to take on someone a bit lower down the totem pole.
This is where I get to be wrong. I have found six Democratic Candidates who are running good campaigns in the right environments who are currently not listed on any list of competitive races in the country by any professional prognosticators. . So here is where I go out on a limb. All of these candidates will get 40%, most will get 45% and one will win. This is not to rule out the possibility of other strange upsets. But theses six campaigns have a real shot at riding a wave.
