So with about three months to go, with Ted Stevens' indictment dominating the Senate news, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous May diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
Senate Guru is on strike! What are the Guru's demands? To get the Guru back to blogging, we need to raise seven twenty-dollar bills each for red state Democratic Senate candidates Jim Martin, Jim Slattery, and Ronnie Musgrove on the Expand the Map! ActBlue page. Your Andrew Jacksons will go toward a great cause: dislodging Shameless Saxby Chambliss, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, and ethically questionable Roger Wicker from the U.S. Senate. So, please, this weekend, send your twenties to these competitive Democrats in red states via the Expand the Map! ActBlue page and get the Guru back to blogging!
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 47
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 46
(MoE: ±4%)
According to the poll, Musgrove has a 49-42 favorable/unfavorable rating, while the lesser-known Wicker is sitting on a 49-32 favorable rating.
So let's tally 'em up. Last week, we saw a DSCC internal poll that had Musgrove up by 8 points, and a Research 2000 poll that had Wicker up by 4.
However, in the "too good to be true?" file, Rasmussen's same round of polling shows Barack Obama in a surprisingly close race with McCain, only down 44-50.
In the state's other Senate race, between longtime incumbent Thad Cochran and former state Rep. Erik Fleming, Cochran leads by 58% to 35%.
Rasmussen just posted a new poll of the MS special election between Ronnie Musgrove and Roger Wicker, and the results show there is indeed a very tight race.
So with less than half a year to go, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Follow me below the fold for all the races. This is meant to be a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike, so some of the information may seem repetitive for you junkies out there. Also see my previous March diary to see what things have changed since my last update.
The presidential primaries are heading towards a not so climactic conclusion and so the time has come to focus some attention on the congressional races. I haven't updated the rankings since January and a lot has changed in the past 5 months, starting with the resolution of contested primaries in Oregon, Nebraska, North Carolina and probably Minnesota. Both parties have gone through final recruitment pushes, with the GOP playing a tragicomedic farce in New Jersey and suffering through one more round of failures in South Dakota and Iowa.
So with eight months to go, I figure it's time for an updated look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Now obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where there is a serious challenger to the incumbent (or at least the incumbent's party, in cases of retirement), where the party holding the seat has a real shot of switching. The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
Note: Some of this may seem repetitive, with information you already know. That's because I originally wrote this for the Bruin Democrats, many of whom don't follow the national races like we do. Consider this a primer for both newcomers and political junkies alike.
Sen. Thad Cochran (R-Miss.) said Wednesday that he will seek reelection in 2008, casting aside rumors of his impending retirement.
Cochran, who will turn 70 next month, has not raised a lot of money this cycle but had previously said he planned to run for reelection.
"While I delayed making this decision until after our state and local government elections were over, there is no reason to delay any longer," Cochran said in a statement. "I have enjoyed serving in the Senate, and I am highly honored to have had the support and encouragement to continue this service from friends throughout the state."
Blah blah blah. Anyhow, this would have been a fun race had former state AG Mike Moore (D) gotten involved. Will he ever have another shot? There was some speculation that Sen. Trent Lott, whose home was destroyed in Katrina, might retire last year, but that of course didn't happen. Gov. Haley Barbour was just re-elected this year, and Cochran's seat presumably will be safe next year.
I don't doubt that Moore is enjoying life right now, but if he wants to get back into politics, what's his angle?
Building upon retirement rumors, Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS) told a local paper he'll make up his mind about running for re-election within "a few weeks." I generally believe that a sitting politician who delays announcing their re-election plans is leaning against another term.
The article also notes that Cochran is enjoying less influence in the Senate under the Democratic majority, having lost his committee chairmanship and other perks. In addition, Cochran told the paper in an interview before last year's election that his plans would be impacted by which party took control of the Senate. And we all know how that turned out.
While Cochran could probably hold his seat as long as he wants it, an open seat would present an opportunity for popular Mississippi Democrats such as former AG Mike Moore or former Governor Ronnie Musgrove.
Republican Thad Cochran says an announcement is coming regarding his 2008 electoral plans in "a few weeks." (HT: TPM) But could Cochran be facing health problems? I only ask because of some of the quotes in the aforelinked article (emphasis added by me):
"I certainly hope he does not retire," said Paul Mize Sr., a longtime Tupelo friend and confidante. Mize said Cochran is healthy, active and enormously helpful to Mississippi's interests in Congress.
Former Cochran chief staff counseI, Brad Prewitt, an attorney and business consultant in Tupelo, said he hopes Cochran runs, adding, "He is logically, mentally a well-organized man. I think he is weighing all the factors about what to do with the rest of his time."
Is there any reason to think Cochran isn't "healthy" or "mentally well-organized"? Is this a case of "methinks thou doth protest too much"? We'll see. Oh, and this article also contains the dumbest sentence I've seen in a while: "Support for a sixth Cochran term is widespread among his Mississippi backers." Thanks, NE-Miss Daily Journal, support for Cochran is widespread among his backers. Basically, the newspaper dedicated column space to say that Cochran's supporters support him. Man, oh man...
