The 2011 gubernatorial race doesn't look to be much of a challenge for the Republicans to hold; neither Dem nominee, either Hattiesburg mayor Johnny Dupree or businessman and Morgan Freeman chum Bill Luckett, comes anywhere close. (If you're wondering why they didn't poll anyone stronger, nobody else is coming; the field is already closed.) The Republican primary -- between Lt. Gov. Phil Bryant, whom I expect is the favorite based on being the only of the five candidates with name rec over 50% or positive favorables (32/27), businessman Dave Dennis, and retired general and county commissioner Hudson Holliday -- is where the real action will be, but it doesn't seem like PPP polled the primaries.
Travis Childers (D): 33
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 51
Undecided: 15
Jim Hood (D): 36
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 50
Undecided: 14
Mike Moore (D): 38
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 14
Ronnie Musgrove (D): 35
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 52
Undecided: 13
Gene Taylor (D): 36
Roger Wicker (R-inc): 48
Undecided: 17
(MoE: ±3.4%)
With no Dem challenger on the horizon for Roger Wicker (who beat ex-Gov. Ronnie Musgrove in 2008, after previously being appointed by Haley Barbour to succeed Trent Lott), PPP throws the entire Dem bench up at the low-profile Wicker and finds that nothing really sticks, as he has a pretty strong 51/23 approval, including 33/29 among Dems. If anything, it gives a relative sense of what Dems are best liked here... it's probably ex-AG Mike Moore, who polls within 10 and has 39/23 favorables.
Here's something fun. There are ten Republican senators up for re-election in 2012, so my question to you is, who among that group is most likely to get teabagged to death? There are of course a lot of factors which go into this question, but at the end of the day, all we're asking is which GOP incumbents are most likely to get derailed on their way to seeking their party's (re-)nomination?
I've taken a stab at ranking this gruesome tensome, in order of likelihood of getting consumed by the tea-flavored beast:
Olympia Snowe
Orrin Hatch
Kay Bailey Hutchison
Richard Lugar
Bob Corker
Scott Brown
John Ensign
Roger Wicker
Jon Kyl
John Barrasso
Ensign deserves an asterisk. While he's probably vulnerable in a primary, I don't really see such a race turning into a teabagger-fueled challenge. So on an ordinary list, he'd rate much higher, but here, he's toward the bottom of the pack.
What do you say? How would you rank this list? I see a lot of juicy targets for the Sharron Angle/Christine O'Donnell brigade!
I am not sure if this is a sign that Roger Wicker is in trouble, or he is just a little worried. This story is classic.
First, Wicker put up radio ads trying to turn black votes off of Ronnie Musgrove, now the GOP is sending out fake ballots insinuating that Wicker is running on the same ticket as Barack Obama and Bennie Thompson! Check it out.
I still think Musgrove has a shot if he can up his white support, and Mississippi enjoys unprecedented black turnout. I am going to be following this one closely tomorrow.
This is it. It's time for my final look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. And with the election tomorrow, tiers no longer matter, so I'll simply rank the competitive races where party control of the seat may switch. All others are deemed safe seats, which now include all of the Tier II and III seats from last time.
This one is too good. Roger Wicker is now up with radio ads featuring black voters who say they will vote for Obama and Wicker. Here's a partial transcript:
"I'm supporting Barack Obama for president and Roger Wicker for US Senate," an African-American woman says in the ad. "In the debate. [Musgrove] wouldn't even say Barack Obama's name. He's disrespecting us and taking our vote for granted," she says.
Another African American says of Wicker: "He represents us and he doesn't take our vote for granted. He's asking for our vote. Ronnie Musgrove refuses to say he supports Barack Obama.
This is astonishing, and it says a great deal about the state of the race, at least in the Wicker campaign's eyes. Wicker sees the same numbers we do. The latest R2K poll had Musgrove winning a quarter of the white vote, and on pace to win 94 percent of the black vote if undecideds break like decided voters. He knows he can't win if that happens, especially with high black turnout.
With Musgrove garnering 23-to-26 percent of the white vote all year (at least according to R2K), maybe Wicker figured that chipping away five percent of the black vote was more doable considering Musgrove's white base has held. So, he is trying to anger black voters by arguing that Musgrove has distanced himself from Obama (even though Musgrove has said he will vote for Obama, and Wicker has bashed him!).
Still, it's amazing that in Mississippi the GOP candidate is trying to latch onto Obama. Wicker knows that if R2K's numbers (and assuredly others) are right, Musgrove is currently poised to win.
What do you guys think? Bold move by Wicker and likely to win him more black support, or pure desperation that African American voters will see through?
With the election less than 3 weeks away from us, it's time for another look at all the 2008 Senate races. There are 35 seats up for election because of a scenario in Wyoming and Mississippi where both seats are up, due to the passing of Craig Thomas and the resignation of Trent Lott, respectively. Obviously, quite a few of the races are considered "safe" for the incumbent. So what are the competitive races?
Again, just to be clear, I don't do predictions. Every time I do, horrible things happen. So I won't even make an actual prediction on the Virginia Senate race, because doing so would effectively jinx Mark Warner. So, I'll rank these in terms of tiers. The top tier will be the races where the party holding the seat has a legitimate chance of switching (but I ain't guaranteeing anything). The second tier are races that could become top tier races, but are not at this point. Tier III are ones where a major event would need to happen for the seat to come into play. And the safe seats? Well, Mike Gravel has a better shot at winning the presidency than those incumbents have of losing their races.
The goal has been to get to 60 seats in the senate. Let's assume that Lieberman still caucuses with the Dems, so that means we need 9 seats.
We've currently got 8 seats where we're either tied or ahead: VA, NM, CO, NH, AK, MN, OR and NC. Its far from a sure thing that we'll win all of these, but all are legitimate targets and I like our trendlines in all of them.
But that's only 59, so we have to look beyond them to get to 60. There are a number of races that I think we got a shot to get that 60th.
One of the primary ways to Expand the Map of competitive U.S. Senate seats in 2008 is to empower with resources Democrats in states that Republicans hope to take for granted, so that they can focus on more traditionally battleground states. Four such red states in 2008 are Mississippi, Kansas, Georgia, and Tennessee, where former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, former Congressman Jim Slattery, former state legislator Jim Martin, and former Tennessee Democratic Party Chair Bob Tuke are running to oust ethically questionable Roger Wicker, Bush-cover-up-artist Pat Roberts, Shameless Saxby Chambliss, and Lamar!, respectively.
$100 makes a huge difference. $10 makes a huge difference. We're now less than two months from Election Day. Supporting these red state Democrats at this critical juncture expands the map, makes the NRSC sweat even more, and increases Democrats' chances for overcoming historic Republican obstructionism in the U.S. Senate. Let's keep that momentum going!
