A quick round-up of last night's congressional and gubernatorial primaries:
GA-Sen: Former state Rep. Jim Martin destroyed DeKalb CEO and Bush supporting Democrat Vernon Jones by a 60-40 margin in the Senatorial primary to take on GOP slimeball Saxby Chambliss.
KS-02: In the biggest shocker of the night, state Treasurer Lynn Jenkins beat ex-Rep. Jim Ryun by a mere 1007 votes (51-49) after trailing heavily in every publicly-released poll during the campaign the campaign. She will now move on to face freshman Democratic Rep. Nancy Boyda in the general election.
MI-13: Incumbent Democrat Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick narrowly survived a three-way primary with 39% of the vote. Former state Rep. Mary Waters came in second with 36%, and state Sen. Martha Scott was third with 25%.
MO-Gov: GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof beat state Treasurer Sarah Steelman by a 49-45 margin for the Republican nomination to succeed Matt Blunt.
MO-09: State Rep. Judy Baker beat former Speaker of the Missouri House Steve Gaw handily (44-31) for the Democratic nomination in this open seat race. On the GOP side, former state Rep. Blaine Luetkemeyer beat the Club For Growth-backed state Rep. Bob Onder by a 40-29 margin. Sadly, netroots fave Brock Olivo only pulled in 10% of the vote.
Polls are now closed in Missouri, where results are starting to trickle in for the Republican gubernatorial primary and the Democratic and Republican primaries for the open seat of GOP Rep. Kenny Hulshof (MO-09). We'll be using this thread to follow the returns.
11:41PM: The AP has called the GOP nod for MO-Gov for Hulshof, and MO-09 for Luetkemeyer.
11:35PM: With 90% in, Baker has surged to a 42-33 lead over Gaw. This one is done.
11:22PM: 81% in, and Baker still leads by 41-37. Hulshof is still five points ahead of Steelman with 87% in.
11:14PM: 78% in, and Baker leads by 41-37 with significant votes in Boone still outstanding. Hulshof is still holding tight.
11:05PM: With 67% in, Baker is still up by 41-38 and exactly 1000 votes. 64 precincts are still out in Boone. Hulshof is holding steady at 49-45 with 84% of the vote in.
10:56PM: Anyone who wants the county-by-county breakdowns for the MO-09 race can find them here. With 64% in, it's 41-38 Baker. Two thirds of Boone County's precincts are not counted yet. With 78% reporting in the gubernatorial race, Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-45.
10:42PM: With 62% of the vote in, Baker leads Gaw by 40-38. Hulshof leads Steelman by 49-44 still with 58% in.
10:23PM: With 51% of the vote in, Baker has pulled ahead of Gaw by 40-37. With no precincts in Boone County (Columbia) reporting yet, Baker is poised for a surge. Luetkey has surged to a 43-25 lead over Onder. In MO-Gov, Hulshof has a 49-44 lead with 45% reporting.
10:00PM: Gaw leads Baker by 39-36 with 23% in. Over in Wingnutville, Luetkemeyer leads Onder by 38-37. In the gubernatorial race, Hulshof has pulled ahead to a 50-43 lead with 20% reporting.
9:44PM: With 18% in, Gaw leads Baker by 39-35, while Luetkemeyer is ahead of Onder by 40-35. In MO-Gov, Hulshof leads Steelman by 48-46 with 14% in.
9:26PM (David): Finally, some more votes are in. Luetkemeyer is leading Onder 40-32 with 6% in. (Sadly, netroots fave Brock Olivo has just 8%.) On our side, Gaw leads Baker 41-39. And Hulshof leads Steelman 48-44.
8:53PM (David): In very early returns (fewer than 1% of precincts reporting), Hulshof has a 48-40 lead over Steelman. Luetkemeyer and Baker are also both up big, but again, very few votes have been tallied.
SSP will be busy tonight, with hot primaries in four states:
GA-Sen (D runoff)
KS-02 (R)
MI-13 (D)
MO-Gov (R)
MO-09 (D & R)
Crisitunity gave us a thorough look at all of these races on Friday.
In the comments, feel free to post your predictions for these races. Whoever posts the closest numbers gets free bragging rights until the TN-09 primary on Thursday.
After a quiet July, we're back in the thick of primary season in August.
August 5
GA-Sen (Runoff): When we last checked in, the primary for the Democratic nomination for the Georgia Senate race had gone to a runoff, with none of the five candidates clearing 50% in the July 15 primary. Bush-enabling DeKalb County CEO Vernon Jones led the field with 41%; ex-State Rep. Jim Martin came in second with 34%. This makes it look like Jones has the edge, but Martin has a good shot at consolidating the anti-Jones votes that were dispersed among the four white candidates. A late June poll shows Martin with a much better shot at beating Saxby Chambliss in the general than Jones has.
KS-02: Nancy Boyda, who won an upset victory in this R+7 district in 2006, has had to sit and wait while Jim Ryun, the former Representative that she beat, and Lynn Jenkins, the Kansas State Treasurer, beat the snot out of each other in the primary. (Ryun was one of the most conservative members of the House; Jenkins is considered a moderate, at least by Kansas standards.) Ryun and Jenkins have raised a fair amount of money, but have had to spend it on each other, and an internal poll from June gives Boyda a sizable edge over each one. Still, this is a Lean D race and Boyda is widely regarded as one of our most endangered incumbents.
MI-13: Representative Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick is in a three-way fight with ex-State Rep. Mary Waters and State Sen. Martha Scott in the Democratic primary. She's a long-time incumbent, but scandal involving her son, Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick, is dragging her down, and a poll this week shows her in the lead but only with 33% of the vote.
MO-Gov: Representative Kenny Hulshof and State Treasurer Sarah Steelman are vying for the Republican nomination to succeed Governor Matt Blunt, retiring at the ripe old age of 37 in the face of massive unpopularity. Polling gives the edge to Hulshof in the primary, but either one of them looks like a speed bump in the road for four-term Attorney General Jay Nixon, making this the Dems' likelist state house pick-up.
MO-09: Kenny Hulshof is leaving behind this open seat in his quest to become Governor, giving the Dems a good shot at picking up this R+7 seat (represented by conservative Dem Harold Volkmer before Hulshof). There are competitive primaries in both parties. On the GOP side, most of the action is between State Rep. Bob Onder and State Tourism Director Blaine Luetkemeyer. (Although the presence of ex-football star Brock Olivo keeps things lively.) Onder is backed by the Club for Growth, Luetkemeyer is backed by Missouri Right to Life, and the St. Louis Post-Dispatch couldn't bring itself to endorse either of them.
On the Dem side, the leading contenders are State Rep. Judy Baker and former State House Speaker Steve Gaw. Marion County Commissioner Lyndon Bode and ex-State Sen. Ken Jacob are also viable candidates. Baker (from the university town of Columbia) seems about as liberal as is viable in this district, Gaw is a bit to her right (although he did come out strongly against retroactive immunity) while the others are pretty Blue Doggish. Baker, who was running before Hulshof dropped out, leads the money chase. In absence of any polls, though, the race on both sides is a big question mark.
August 7
TN-09: Representative Steve Cohen, who picked up Harold Ford's old Memphis-based seat in 2006, is being challenged by another one of the 2006 contenders, Nikki Tinker. Regrettably, this race has been defined by identity politics: race, gender, and religion, rather than ideology (which is important, as Cohen, the white guy, is quite progressive, while Tinker, the African-American woman, is running to his right). The district's 60% African-American composition gives an advantage to Tinker, but internal polling in May gave a huge edge to Cohen. At D+18, it's safe for the Dems in the general.
TN-01, TN-07: Two members of Tennessee's wingnut patrol face primary challenges from other wingnuts hoping to capitalize on discontent within the wingnut base. In TN-01, freshman Rep. David Davis (who won the last primary with 22% of the vote) faces a rematch with 2006 contender Johnson City mayor Phil Roe. And in TN-07, Marsha Blackburn is up against Shelby County Register of Deeds Tom Leatherwood, who released an internal poll showing him within striking distance. These races don't seem to be about much other than "my turn," and Dems aren't in a place to capitalize in these deep-red districts (R+14 and R+12), but they're worth keeping an eye on.
August 12
CO-02: In this safe Dem (D+8) district based in Boulder, there's a heated race to replace soon-to-be-Senator Mark Udall. State Senate President Joan Fitz-Gerald, Board of Education chairman and Internet entrepreneur Jared Polis, and Colorado Conservation Trust executive director Will Shafroth are all strong candidates. Conventional wisdom seems to mostly focus on Fitz-Gerald and the self-funding Polis, but Shafroth has picked up the major newspaper endorsements. Polis may be a smidge to the left of the other candidates (he's openly gay and a Responsible Plan endorser).
CO-05: Doug Lamborn is another freshman wingnut who ruffled a lot of feathers in his first election (to the extent that his predecessor, Joel Hefley, refused to endorse him). He faces off against two of his 2006 challengers, former Hefley aide Jeff Crank and ex-AF Maj. Gen. Bentley Rayburn. Crank and Rayburn originally entered into a gentlemen's agreement where one would drop out based on polling to avoid splitting the anti-Lamborn vote, but that agreement collapsed, leaving Crank and Rayburn attacking each other instead. It's probably all for naught anyway, as their joint internal poll gives a big edge to Lamborn. Whoever wins has a big edge against Dem Hal Bidlack in this R+16 district.
CO-06: There's a crowded field of Republicans trying to pick up where the retiring Tom Tancredo leaves off. Mike Coffman, the Colorado Secretary of State, seems to be slight front runner against businessman (and son of long-ago Senator Bill Armstrong) Wil Armstrong, according to Armstrong's internal polling. Armstrong, despite not having held office, boasts some key endorsements, including retiring Sen. Wayne Allard and Mitt Romney. Two state senators, Ted Harvey and Steve Ward, are also vying for the seat. Local activist Steve Collins will represent the Dems in the general in this R+10 district.
Look for the 8-19 primaries in Washington and Wyoming, and the 8-26 primaries in Alaska and Florida, in Part II.
On August 5th, congressional primaries will be decided in Kansas, Missouri and Michigan. The FEC requires candidates in these states to file fundraising reports covering the extended period of 4/1 through 7/16 by midnight tonight. We've rounded up all the numbers of interest in a handy chart below (which we've inserted into our 2Q round-up chart):
District
Candidate
Party
2Q Raised
CoH
CTD
KS-02
Nancy Boyda
D-inc.
$235
$892
$1,227
KS-02
Lynn Jenkins
R
$130
$489
$641
KS-02
Jim Ryun
R
$440
$223
$1,649
KS-03
Dennis Moore
D-inc.
$336
$1,140
$1,185
KS-03
Nick Jordan
R
$472
$616
$861
MI-07
Tim Walberg
R-inc.
$363
$855
$1,186
MI-07
Mark Schauer
D
$420
$929
$1,303
MI-09
Joe Knollenberg
R-inc.
$713
$1,891
$2,547
MI-09
Gary Peters
D
$570
$1,082
$1,301
MO-06
Sam Graves
R-inc.
$316
$936
$1,663
MO-06
Kay Barnes
D
$463
$962
$1,852
MO-09
Judy Baker
D
$185
$140
$391
MO-09
Steve Gaw
D
$107
$40
$218
MO-09
Ken Jacob
D
$24
$73
$54
MO-09
Lyndon Bode
D
$43
$5
$120
MO-09
Bob Onder
R
$100
$153
$220
MO-09
Blaine Luetkemeyer
R
$71
$141
$142
All numbers, of course, are in thousands.
You might notice that our numbers for Kay Barnes don't jive with the figure reported for her by the Politico's Josh Kraushaar. Our chart pegs Barnes' pre-primary fundraising at $463K, while Kraushaar reports that Barnes raised $601K. I'm not sure where Josh is getting his numbers from, but if you look at the actual filing, you'll note that Barnes' net contributions line matches our figure, and her total receipts for the quarter were still well under the Politico's number.
In yet another sign that Democrats are enthusiastic about taking over a long held Republican seat in the MO-09 house race, Judy Baker lead all US House candidates in the nation and was 3rd among all candidates (behind senate race candidates Noriega and Hagan) for ActBlue donations last week! (Also interestingly Steve Gaw another Democratic candidate from the 9th district squeaked into the top 10).
In a race where Republican frontrunner Bob Onder has already mistakenly released his Q2 fundraising numbers and raised only 89K, Judy Baker and Steve Gaw are posting strong numbers on ActBlue. Given that Judy Baker has raised approximately 100K on ActBlue alone she is almost certain to come in ahead of Onder's numbers for the second quarter.
In the past 3 months, Democrats have increased their House majority as they picked up a remarkable 3 seats in a series of special elections organized in Illinois's 14th district, Louisiana's 6th district, Mississippi's 1st district. What is particularly remarkable is that all three of these districts leaned heavily Republican; in 2004, George Bush had won them respectively with 55%, 59% and 62%. Each defeat increased the chaos of the Republican caucus as the NRCC started to settle in panic mode. After the loss of MS-01 on May 13th, Tom Cole, the chairman of the NRCC, issued a remarkable statement calling on Republican incumbents to brace for the worse and find individual ways to deal with the onslaught.
And Republicans have reason to fear a second November debacle. First, Republicans are now three more seats away from the majority and it is hard to find a GOP operative willing to suggest their party has any hope of reducing that margin in November. Second, the party continues to be at a significant financial disadvantage while the DCCC has a huge pile of cash that it will use in dozens of districts in the coming months, testing any Republican seat that shows any sign of being vulnerable. While the GOP was able to respond in the special elections, they will not have the money to do the same in the fall and will be forced to make some painful choices.
Hoping to fill the vaccum left by incumbent Gov. Matt Blunt's decision not to seek re-election, Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-MO) is planning to run for governor rather than seek another term in Congress. Hulshof joins the current lieutenant governor and state treasurer in the GOP primary to determine who Democratic AG Jay Nixon gets to defeat in November. In doing so, Hulshof adds his R+6.5 district to the list of open seats Republicans will be defending this fall.
The last time we checked in with Rep. Kenny Hulshof (R-MO), his candidacy for the University of Missouri presidency apparently hit a brick wall after another candidate was offered the gig, ending our brief dreams of an off-year special election here.
Hulshof's district is not a typical Democratic target. Its PVI (R+6.5) and its 18-point margin for Bush in 2004, coupled with the incumbent's uncontroversial tenure would have most analysts slotting this district in the "safe" column. But while the GOP can't even recruit top challengers to defend GOP seats lately (see: NJ-03), Democrats are shooting for the fences, even in red districts like this one.
Earlier this fall, the DCCC put Hulshof on its SCHIP hit list, and targeted the incumbent with radio ads slamming him for his cold-shouldered vote against America's poorest kids.
Now, it looks like Hulshof may finally get an opponent in state Rep. Judy Baker, who filed her papers to form an exploratory committee and begin raising money for a congressional campaign. A Baker candidacy would be a big step up for local Democrats, who haven't fielded a candidate with elected experience against Hulshof since 2000.
Baker said she's done some "initial analysis" and says there is opportunity to run in the Ninth this year. She cited significant anxiety over the status quo in Washington and "a very strong swing toward doing something different."
"I think I am able to fill that gap," Baker said. "But it's also for me - I feel like I can't do anything else. I keep trying to say, 'No, this is not the time, this is not the year, this is not the race.' But it kind of grabs me and won't let me go. Because I feel that the issues are so critical at such a critical juncture that I feel like the whole thing won't even let me go."
Hulshof's vote against SCHIP would likely be a key campaign issue for Baker, should she make her bid official:
Most recently, she has been critical of Hulshof for voting against expansion and reauthorization of the State Children's Health Insurance Program.
"That is going to be a huge issue for the next two decades," Baker said. "We need someone who'll stand up for people who need health care and not just say 'we're not going to supply it.' ... There are numerous other issues and it's not just health care -- economy, the war, health care - all of these add up to people wanting a new perspective and new set of eyes to look at our problems and move us forward."
This would be a challenging district for any Democrat, especially against an incumbent. But any opportunity to make the GOP sweat should be seized upon. And you never know -- perhaps Hulshof isn't that thrilled with his job and might jump ship for another opportunity. We know that he's been looking for an easy out already.
Rep. Kenny Hulshof, a rising Republican star in Congress, is on the short list to be University of Missouri president. That raises the possibility of Democrats picking up his House seat representing Missouri's Little Dixie.
Hulshof won the once solidly Democratic seat in 1996 with 48 percent of the vote and was given a coveted membership on the House Ways and Means Committee. Hulshof has won recent elections with over 61 percent (even in 2006, when Democrats were winning elsewhere in Missouri and a state Senate seat in the district was lost by the Republicans).
Missouri Republican strategists worry that it would be difficult to retain the district in a special election if Hulshof takes the university post.
While Bush won this district by 55/42 and 59/41 margins in 2000 and 2004, respectively, it was represented by Democrat Harold Volkmer for 20 years from 1977-1997. A special election with a strong local Democratic candidate could prove to be a rockin' good time. In fact, special elections in both this district and Arizona's 1st district could give Tom Cole and the NRCC brain trust migraines this summer, should they happen.
Now, I have a question for the SSP brain trust: how well did Claire McCaskill perform in this district last November?
UPDATE (David): Man, I knew someone would come up with the answer! Major props to MORawn for crunching the numbers: in 2006, McCaskill got 46% in MO-09, to Talent's 54%. That jives with pcd's slightly rougher calculation. So, a tough row to hoe even for a top-shelf candidate, given that last year's senate race was a high-water mark for us. But an open seat is always a game-changer.
